The possible nominative determinism of the Makerfield constituency may prove as significant to political historians as it has been a blessing to newspaper sub-editors crafting puns on “Makerfield or Breakerfield”.

The immediate futures of Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer were decided in the historic happening of the first UK byelection to effectively elect a prime minister. It was a battle of our times.

Burnham’s success will make a new administration as it breaks the present one. Prime Minister Starmer’s government has been largely an ineffectual one – of which Burnham, crucially, was not a part.

This may be the moment – “the final chance to change”, as the victorious candidate put it – that transforms the performance and perception of Labour. But it also demonstrates how profoundly, and rapidly, politics in Britain is changing.

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Andy Burnham is back at Westminster: what this says about Britain’s changing political system

Governing parties don’t win byelections, and certainly not on 23-point swings. Burnham’s 54.8% vote share, more than 20 percentage points more than that of Reform UK, was unexpectedly emphatic – a personal triumph.

The momentum behind Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, has if not stalled then noticeably decelerated. A second seat in the north-west that Reform ought to have won this year, it hasn’t – and this time resoundingly.

Much was down to Labour’s exceptional candidate – and Reform’s exceptionally inappropriate one. In the May local election, Reform was rampant, Labour won only 24% of the vote in Makerfield, and Restore Britain didn’t stand. Last night, Rupert Lowe’s party finished third.

Lowe has checked Farage with politics of such unabashed illiberalism as to make Reform resemble the Liberal Democrats. It is too simplistic to assume that had Restore not stood, its voters would have turned to Reform (and in any case, Burnham would still have won conclusively). But rather than deal in switchers, Restore’s menace is its appeal to non-voters.

This byelection was not merely a matter of getting someone into parliament to supplant a prime minister. It was intended, and needed to be, a statement.

More than any incumbent party in history, given the unique febrility of politics in 2026, Labour could not hope, much less expect, to win a byelection anywhere. Never competitive in rural constituencies, in cities Labour is prey to the Greens, in towns to Reform and Restore, and in Scotland and Wales to nationalists. (Labour did poorly in the other byelections on the same day, both in Scotland.)

Reform and tactical voting

Ironically, given the central importance of “place” in this byelection, Makerfield isn’t one. A swathe of small towns and bits of larger ones, its identity is regional and emblematic, if not typical, of seats which used in lore to weigh rather than count votes for Labour. However, new parties now appeal in a political marketplace for the disaffected.

Andy Burnham contesting a seat in Greater Manchester was almost the only likely Labour victory. There were more propitious seats, such as Gorton and Denton in February, but a weak Starmer blocked Burnham’s candidature. Weakened further by the May elections, the prime minister was unable to do so a second time for Makerfield.

As it turned out, that initial rebuff has burnished Burnham’s subsequent success. The greater marginality of Makerfield makes the statement much greater.

Reform’s rise has been tempered by two otherwise unrelated phenomena. Just as Farage inspires, he also repels: his is a unique talent for encouraging tactical voting (the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green party combined vote share of just 3.3% in Makerfield suggests as much).

Burnham’s clearest and most long-term policy – electoral reform – is intended to address the negativity surrounding politics today. The salience of proportional representation has never been greater than in Britain’s new multi-party politics. With Burnham as prime minister, it is likely to be a Labour manifesto commitment for the first time.

But Burnham’s undoubted personal popularity provides more questions than answers – not least, whether a politician who has been highly successfully regionally can translate that record to the national, and international, level.

There is also the question of whether the affability and relatability so integral to his appeal can withstand the vicissitudes of the highest office – as well as the scepticism, cynicism and increasing impatience of voters. Burnham will soon discover that the quickest way for a popular politician to become an unpopular politician is to become prime minister.

This is not Burnham’s first attempt to lead Labour. To the political questions of the day in 2010 and 2015, he was not the answer. In the post-New Labour world, Burnham lost to a softer leftist in Ed Miliband. And in the electoral wild west begat by Miliband’s party reforms, he lost to a harder leftist in Jeremy Corbyn.

But third time around, Burnham might just be the answer. The fractured multi-party politics of 2026 may respond more favourably to Labour with a leader whom its members and voters actually want to vote for.

Getting Labour’s vote out next time will be its highest priority. As almost never happens, the turnout in yesterday’s byelection was higher than in the general election.

Burnham’s re-election to parliament would always – to use the word of the age – change things. The measure would be the scale of his victory. For him to be a serious alternative leader, much less a saviour, the victory needed to be big. It was, and it was also personal.

But whether his appeal is portable will soon be the question. Some in Labour may see in Makerfield, as Churchill did El-Alamein, “the bright gleam” of victory. It certainly denotes both the beginning of Starmer’s end, and the end of Burnham’s beginning.

The Edge Green Street ground of Ashton Town Football Club might not seem the obvious place in which to spark a revolution, but it was carefully chosen by Andy Burnham as the location for his Makerfield by-election victory speech.

With the winning candidate dressed down in polo shirt and slacks, in a grassroots sort of venue, the “optics” of it all underlined his status as tribune of the people. The prime minister, we may note, is rarely seen without a suit and tie, and has struggled to shake off his reputation as a habitue of the VIP box at Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium.

Mr Burnham stuck to the theme of his campaign, telling his audience: “We’ve been on a path for 40 years that simply hasn’t worked.” Places such as the towns and villages of Makerfield have suffered as a result. Once again, he placed himself at the head of a movement: “This is now the change moment.”

“Change” is a useful slogan that has swept Mr Burnham to an impressive victory. He is a highly experienced and skilful operator. By contrast, Reform UK fielded a substandard candidate with an unenviable social media history.

Even so, Makerfield was an almost ideal Reform constituency, and in normal circumstances it would have been an easy win for Nigel Farage’s party. Makerfield is overwhelmingly white, has a high proportion of older voters, and registered a 66 per cent Leave vote in the 2016 referendum. Reform also won all the local council seats at the elections last month.

That Mr Burnham scored an absolute majority of the votes, and a 20-point lead over his “local” Reform rival, is testament to his own past and present dedication to the area, and the way he struck a chord with so many voters disillusioned with politics. Mr Burnham offered them “unity”, “hope” and, most potent of all, the chance to oust Sir Keir Starmer.

Will he? If this is “the change moment”, when will “change” materialise? It is difficult to know exactly what the protagonists in this shadow fight for No 10 are planning.

Sir Keir says he is “not going to walk away”, and that he will fight any leadership challenge. But he may be bluffing – he could hardly admit he’s sorely tempted to throw in the towel and take up a more dignified, Blair-style international role. Sources close to Wes Streeting indicate he might launch his campaign in earnest next week, but no one has yet seen the names of the 81 supporters he needs to actually trigger a contest.

Mr Burnham, 56, has the definite air of a middle-aged man in a hurry, but some of his aides are briefing that he’d be content to wait until early September for Sir Keir, if he graciously conceded now, to vacate No 10. During this interregnum, Mr Burnham and his newly recruited high-powered advisers can work out a plan for government.

The King of the North doesn’t seem so keen on the noisy “battle of ideas” that Mr Streeting has in mind, or to take on the obviously well-briefed Sir Keir in verbal combat on policy (the prime minister has also let it be known he has a team, and funding, ready for any leadership election).

There is wild speculation that a succession of debilitating resignations by ministers, or an overwhelming number of Labour MPs nominating his rivals, will make Sir Keir’s position as leader de facto untenable – but the gossips also say he is stubborn, and that his wife Victoria wants him to fight on. What the wider party and the British people would prefer to happen seems almost irrelevant.

All will probably not become clear for some time, not least because it is up to Labour’s National Executive Committee to set a timetable only after a contest is triggered. The selectorate comprises an unpredictable mixture of Labour activists and a far wider penumbra of less engaged affiliated supporters in the trade unions. Many of the latter will, bizarrely, ordinarily be Reform voters.

In the deputy leadership election that Lucy Powell won last year, the turnout was extremely low – only 17 per cent of the 970,642 eligible voters joined in. It might well be higher this time, given that they’ll be picking the PM, as if in a game show – but also harder to call.

For now, the one thing that can unify Labour – and, indeed, anyone who values decency in public life – is the humiliation suffered by Reform UK at the hands of Mr Burnham. His messages landed well, and he was rightly the beneficiary of tactical voting by Greens, Liberal Democrats and some Conservatives. Many were appalled by the Reform candidate’s views and by Mr Farage’s inflammatory and irresponsible reaction to the murder of Henry Nowak – the call for “pure, cold rage” and the ugly riots and increasingly racialised claims that followed.

It would appear that even as the Labour Party embarks on another of its periodic civil wars, Reform has peaked and is now poorly positioned to make capital out of Labour’s divisions. That is one change all of us should welcome.

Gino Robb was found with serious injuries having suffered stab wounds when emergency services were called to Shields Road in Byker, Newcastle at 7.25pm on Tuesday (June 16).

The 25-year-old from Newcastle was taken to hospital where he died a short time later

His next of kin are aware and continue to be supported by officers, Northumbria Police said.

A murder investigation was launched and three people – two men aged 24 and 22 and a boy aged 16 – were arrested on suspicion of murder. They have since been released on police bail, pending further enquiries.

A further three people, two men aged 40 and 33, and a boy aged 16, were later arrested in the Walker area on suspicion of conspiracy to murder.

The scene on Shields Road in Byker where a murder probe is underway. (Image: NORTH NEWS)

The 40-year-old man has been released on police bail while the 33-year-old man and the 16-year-old boy remain in police custody.

Police remain in the area following the attack.

A spokesperson from Northumbria Police said: “Our thoughts remain firmly with Gino’s family and loved ones following the tragic events of Tuesday evening.

“The investigation into the incident remains very much ongoing and a wide range of enquiries have been carried out to date.

“We are re-appealing for information as a murder investigation following the death of a man in Newcastle continues.

“We remain in the Byker and Walker areas to carry out further enquiries and reassure the community at what has understandably been an unsettling time for the local community.

The scene on Shields Road in Byker where a murder probe is underway. (Image: NORTH NEWS)

“We are particularly keen to hear from anyone who saw two people on an electric motorbike which we believe entered Shields Road from the area of Grace Street in the minutes leading up to the incident, before then heading back along Shields Road and back into the area of Grace Street.

“We would also like to hear from those with CCTV, dashcam footage or mobile phone footage of these areas at around that time.

“Thank you to those who have contacted us so far and if you do have information or footage which could assist us, please get in touch so that we can provide Gino’s family with the answers they deserve.”

Witnesses or anyone with information can visit orlo.uk/bwhvg or call 101 or send Northumbria Police a DM on social media, quoting reference : NP-20260616-1033.

You can also share information anonymously through independent charity Crimestoppers by calling 0800 555 111 or visiting their website.

She also said that while there are obligations in terms of article two to protect life and article three not to subject prisoners to inhuman or degrading treatment, there is “no positive obligation, in general terms, based on article two or article three, to accommodate a trans prisoner in a prison for the opposite biological sex”.

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Derek McInnes has finally broken his silence on his exit from Hearts after being appointed as the new Rangers boss

Newly appointed Rangers manager Derek McInnes has conceded that “frustration is justifiable” amongst Hearts supporters, as he finally spoke out about the gut-wrenching title collapse.

The Jambos were tantalisingly close to clinching the Scottish Premiership title on the final day of the campaign, only for two late strikes to hand Martin O’Neill’s side the trophy at Celtic Park.

In the aftermath, Rangers chairman Andrew Cavenagh and chief executive Jim Gillespie wasted no time in luring McInnes away from Tynecastle, having previously allowed Danny Rohl to depart for RB Salzburg.

The development leaves Hearts in search of a new manager following a turbulent month that has seen the Edinburgh club relinquish their Premiership title challenge, while also losing skipper Lawrence Shankland and now McInnes himself to the Ibrox outfit.

McInnes acknowledged he was “angry and devastated” after Celtic crushed their historic title aspirations, and had kept quiet while “trying to process” the painful blow, reports the Daily Record.

In an open letter to supporters, published via the Hearts Standard, he wrote: “To all connected with Heart of Midlothian. It was an incredible privilege to manage the football club for the last 12 months.”

He continued: “When I was appointed, there was great delight and personal pride in being in such a position, a position that had appealed to me for a long time. It’s such a special football club and we had such a brilliant season together.

“I’m well aware I haven’t spoken since the last game of the season. I totally understand the frustration from fans around the lack of communication, both from myself and the club, considering the manner in which the season ended. The frustration is justifiable.

“I was so angry and devastated at how it all played out for us after putting so much effort in. The decisions that had a huge impact on the outcome were hard to take. Trying to process it all was part of my thinking as to why I didn’t speak.”

McInnes maintains he delivered on several of his objectives during his time as Hearts manager as he offered an emotional goodbye to the club – pointing to the side’s best-ever points haul and securing qualification for the Champions League.

He said: “When I arrived, I said I wanted to make Hearts something. A team that resonated with the supporters and a team that fans were excited to watch on a Saturday, no matter where and when. I believe we achieved that.

“I also wanted to make Tynecastle Park a place fans wanted to come to and a place opposition teams didn’t. I felt Tynecastle was even more special than it normally is and I had that feeling every time I walked out the tunnel and into the home dugout. An unbeaten home record was a brilliant achievement.

“Hearts came so close to completing one of the greatest seasons in the club’s history. Despite how the season ended, it was still hugely successful and memorable. A record points total, Champions League qualification, three derby wins and so many more highs and memories along the way.

“Unfortunately, the team didn’t get what they deserved in the end.

“I want to thank the players and staff. I’ve spoken to every single one of them over the last few days and wish them only well.

“A big thanks to the support I received from the board, particularly Calum Paterson, and also Graeme Jones for a brilliant, strong working relationship.

“I’d also like to thank Clare Cowan for her huge support of me, Alan Archibald, Paul Sheerin and all the players throughout the season. She is as good a member of staff as I’ve ever worked with.

“And, finally, the Heart of Midlothian support. I felt like one of you. The backing you gave me and the team was incredible and helped create something so special. I can’t speak highly enough about the Hearts fans. Thank you.

“I wish I’d got to Hearts sooner and that my time at the club was more than 12 months. It was only a short time, but it was a brilliant time. I wish Hearts only good things going forward.”

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Ministers are calling for urgent meetings with Sir Keir Starmer to urge him to quit to make way for Andy Burnham after his stunning victory at the Makerfield by-election.

Labour MPs are clamouring for a “coronation” for the former Greater Manchester mayor as prime minister to prevent a drawn-out leadership battle that could crush the party’s general election hopes.

Ministers have told The Independent they plan to tell tell Sir Keir he must set out a timetable to leave No 10, with cabinet members, including Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood preparing to repeat their earlier demands that he do so, in the wake of Mr Burnham’s victory.

But a defiant Keir Starmer has refused to step down and made it clear he will fight any leadership contest, calling on the party “to pull together” and “avoid plunging the country into chaos”.

After beating Nigel Farage’s Reform with almost 55 per cent of the vote, Mr Burnham pledged to “lay out a new path for Britain”, prioritising the economy, reindustrialisation and education, at a victory rally where he was buoyed by a cheering crowd of supporters.

He said his landslide victory was “the last chance to save Labour” after the party had slid to record low polling results following its victory in the 2024 general election under Sir Keir’s leadership.

Mr Burnham promised an end to “trickle-down” economics and an “unfair” immigration system and vowed to push for the reindustrialisation of Britain’s cities, use public procurement to boost British businesses and bring in work placements for all 16 to18-year-olds.

He said that people “did not give me a blank cheque”, adding: “We need an economy that works for everybody, not a few for people in far flung places. It is about time we backed British business and industry.”

But Sir Keir was clear that he is going nowhere without having his hand forced and still plans to fight a leadership election.

He said: “Let’s pull together as a party and a movement. The one thing we’ve got to avoid doing is plunging our party and our country into chaos by turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement. That has never worked. That’s what the last government did. We need to learn that lesson.”

Even though internal Labour polling in Makerfield suggested that the prospect of Mr Burnham replacing Sir Keir was the top reason people were voting for him, Sir Keir tried to take credit for Reform being “on the run”.

Meanwhile, ministers have confirmed they will tell Sir Keir that he needs to quit, while previous loyalists are also said to be considering interventions. Transport secretary Heidi Alexander had a conversation with Sir Keir on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, deputy leader Lucy Powell and culture secretary Lisa Nandy are already seen as part of “team Burnham”.

Former cabinet minister Louise Haigh, a key lieutenant for Mr Burnham, has also called for him to go. “People in Makerfield have shown that they don’t want Reform they want a changed Labour, they want hope and optimism,” she added.

There are also expected to be representations made to former health secretary Wes Streeting to cut a deal with Mr Burnham, instead of pushing his own planned leadership bid.

The size of Mr Burnham’s victory margin, by 10,000 votes in Makerfield, has put to bed talk of the need for a Labour leadership contest in the minds of many Labour MPs and figures who are now calling for a “coronation” of the so-called “King of the North”.

Liverpool Riverside MP Kim Johnson said: “There definitely needs to be a coronation now. But more important is that we consider Labour Party democracy and reestablishing broad church in the party and ending factionalism.”

Karl Turner, who has been suspended from Labour for opposing plans to scrap the right to a jury trial but is expected to be brought back by Mr Burnham, said: “Keir Starmer just isn’t up to it. There needs to be a coronation.”

Labour MP Alex Sobel said: “Andy Burnham has proven his credentials in putting forward a Labour vision voters can rally around, the prime minister must think about what is best for the country and that is now clearly for an orderly transition of power to allow Labour members to elect a new leader.”

A Labour MP on the right of the party who had planned to be part of a different candidate’s leadership team, conceded: “I think a coronation is looking very likely now but I am not sure what it will look like.”

Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell was in tears on LBC listening to Mr Burnham’s victory speech. He said: “Keir [Starmer] has to recognise that it is time to move on. Let’s plan it properly, let’s not divide the party, let’s try and do it with a bit of dignity and what we describe in the party as comradeship.”

Another MP told The Independent: “It has been over for Keir for some time now we need to make a change with a minimum of fuss. Andy’s win and the margin makes it inevitable that he becomes leader now.”

Another said: “Wes [Streeting] should just cut a deal with Burnham so we don’t have to have a long drawn out contest and get on with governing.”

Tony Blair’s former director of communication Alastair Campbell added: “These are not normal times and this was not a normal by-election. Pressure on Keir Starmer grows because MPs see in Burnham the possibility of stopping Reform and reversing sense of pessimism. A 23 per cent swing since May locals, and the biggest by-election turnout differential since 1958! Not to be sniffed at. Boldness has been rewarded.”

Meanwhile, trade union leaders, some of Labour biggest backers, have also pushed for a speedy change. Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said: “The win for Andy Burnham in Makerfield is a glimmer of hope but it must not be taken as a business as usual mandate.

“It is clear that there now needs to be an orderly timetable for a leadership election and Keir Starmer must do the right thing and step down.”

FBU general secretary Steve Wright added: “Andy now has a mandate to take on Farage and break with austerity by embracing policies to tax the super rich to properly fund public services and pay workers.”

Diana Henry is the Telegraph’s much-loved cookery writer. She shares recipes each week, for everything from speedy family dinners to special menus that friends will remember for months. She is also a regular broadcaster on BBC Radio 4, and her journalism and recipe books, including Simple and How to Eat a Peach, are multi-award-winning. A mother of two sons, Diana can satisfy even the fussiest of eaters.