Crypto World
XRP reserves at 7-year low: the signal that matters
XRP on exchanges just hit a seven-year low. Whales now hold a record share of supply. Both are bullish-sounding headlines, but one of them is the signal that actually matters, and understanding which is the difference between reading the chart and reading the noise.
Summary
- XRP exchange reserves are the cleaner signal because they measure sellable supply.
- Whale concentration is dramatic but ambiguous, because large holders can hold or sell.
- Thin exchange supply can amplify a CLARITY-driven demand shock.
- The setup points to higher sensitivity, not guaranteed upside.
Two on-chain numbers are circulating about XRP right now, and both sound bullish. The first: whale wallets, those holding 10 million or more XRP, now control 68.5% of the circulating supply, the highest concentration since May 2018.
The second: XRP held on exchanges has fallen to a seven-year low of roughly 1.6 billion tokens, down about 50% from the 3.76 billion peak of October 2025. Both get cited as evidence that something bullish is building, but they are not equally meaningful, and treating them as interchangeable misreads the setup.
One describes who owns XRP, which is interesting but ambiguous. The other describes how much XRP is available to sell, which is the number that actually shapes what happens when demand arrives.
The exchange-reserve drawdown matters more than the whale count, and understanding why is the difference between reading the signal and repeating the headline.
This piece works through both metrics and explains why the exchange-reserve figure is the one to watch. It covers what exchange reserves actually measure and why a seven-year low matters, why the whale-concentration number is more ambiguous than it sounds, how the two combine with the CLARITY Act catalyst to create a genuine supply-demand setup, and how to read all of it without overreacting.
The goal is not to predict a price but to understand the mechanics. Thin available supply meeting a potential demand catalyst is what would drive a violent move if one comes, and those mechanics are frequently misunderstood.
What exchange reserves measure, and why a seven-year low matters
That exchange-reserve figure is the more important of the two, so it deserves the careful explanation, because its significance is precise and often muddled.
Exchange reserves are the amount of a cryptocurrency held in wallets belonging to exchanges, and they function as a proxy for the supply readily available to be sold. When XRP sits on an exchange, it is positioned to be sold quickly, because selling on an exchange is frictionless.
Exchange-held coins therefore represent the most immediately available sell-side liquidity. When XRP leaves exchanges and moves into private wallets, it generally signals that holders are moving it into longer-term storage, off the trading venues and out of immediate selling range.
So a falling exchange reserve means less XRP is sitting in a position to be sold. The seven-year low of roughly 1.6 billion tokens, down about half from the late-2025 peak, means the readily sellable supply of XRP has compressed dramatically to a multi-year minimum.
This matters because of what it implies for price dynamics when demand arrives. Price is set at the margin by the balance between buyers and sellers, and the supply available to sell is one half of that balance.
When the readily available supply is large, incoming demand can be met by sellers without the price moving much, because there is plenty of XRP positioned to sell into the buying. When the readily available supply is thin, as a seven-year reserve low indicates, incoming demand has less supply to absorb it.
The same amount of buying pressure therefore produces a larger price move because there is less XRP available to satisfy it. A compressed exchange reserve is, in effect, a coiled spring on the supply side: it does nothing on its own, but it sets up a condition where any significant demand meets thin supply and the price can move violently.
That is why the seven-year low is the number that matters. It describes the supply side of the equation that determines how XRP responds to demand.
Why the whale-concentration number is more ambiguous
The whale figure draws more attention because it sounds dramatic, but it is more ambiguous than the reserve number, and the ambiguity is worth understanding rather than glossing over.
The fact that wallets holding 10 million or more XRP control 68.5% of circulating supply, the highest since 2018, is usually presented as bullish, on the logic that whales are accumulating and their conviction signals confidence. There is something to that: the broader accumulation data is real, with the number of wallets holding 10,000 or more XRP at an all-time high and the millionaire tier adding addresses and tokens through the drawdown.
But the concentration figure itself cuts both ways, and the bullish reading is not the only one. High concentration means a large share of the supply sits in a small number of hands, and those hands can sell as well as hold.
That makes high whale concentration also a concentration of potential selling pressure, a risk that a few large holders deciding to exit could move the price down hard. Concentration is not inherently bullish; it is a description of who holds the supply, and what that means depends on what those holders do.
A deeper ambiguity: whale wallets are hard to interpret cleanly. A wallet holding 10 million XRP could belong to a long-term accumulator, an exchange’s cold storage, a custodian holding on behalf of many clients, an institution, or an early holder sitting on a position, and these have very different implications.
Escrow activity adds another layer of complexity to the supply picture, because large token movements can look dramatic without directly translating into immediate sell pressure. That is why the context around locked and re-locked XRP matters.
Rising whale concentration could mean conviction-driven accumulation, or it could partly reflect coins moving into custodial and institutional storage as the asset matures, which is a different phenomenon with a different meaning. The whale count tells you that supply is concentrated, but it does not reliably tell you why or what those holders intend.
That makes it a noisier signal than the clean supply-availability reading of the exchange reserve. The whale number is interesting context, but it is ambiguous in a way the reserve figure is not, and leaning on it as a clear bullish signal reads more certainty into it than it supports.
Why the reserve figure is the cleaner signal
Putting the two side by side clarifies why one is the signal and the other is the context, and the distinction comes down to what each number actually determines.
The exchange-reserve figure measures something mechanically connected to price action: the supply available to sell. That connection is direct and not very ambiguous, because whatever the reason XRP is leaving exchanges, the effect is the same: less supply positioned to sell, which tightens the supply side of the market.
A seven-year reserve low means thin sell-side liquidity, and thin sell-side liquidity means demand moves the price more, regardless of the motivations behind the reserve drawdown. The signal is clean because it does not require interpreting intent.
It describes a structural condition of the market that holds however it came about. This is the kind of on-chain metric that really informs how the price might behave, because it measures the actual scarcity of sellable supply.
Whale concentration, by contrast, measures who holds the supply, which is one step removed from price action and heavily dependent on interpretation. To translate whale concentration into a price implication, you have to guess what the whales are and what they will do.
That guess is where the signal gets noisy, because the same concentration number is bullish if the whales hold and bearish if they sell, and you usually cannot tell which from the number alone. The reserve figure tells you the supply is scarce; the whale figure tells you the supply is concentrated and leaves you to guess what that means.
Escrow headlines work similarly: they can matter, but they need interpretation before they become a price signal. A lockup can reduce immediate circulating pressure, but it still has to be read alongside exchange balances, market demand, and timing.
For reading how XRP might respond to a demand catalyst, the scarcity of sellable supply is the more useful and more reliable input. That is why the seven-year reserve low deserves more weight than the record whale concentration, even though the whale number makes the more dramatic headline.
The cleaner signal is the one that does not depend on reading minds.
How it combines with the CLARITY catalyst
The reserve figure matters most because of what it sets up in combination with a specific potential demand catalyst, and that combination is the real story underneath both numbers.
XRP sits in front of a concrete potential demand event: the CLARITY Act. If passed, it would codify XRP’s commodity status into federal law and, by analysts’ projections, could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows as institutions gain the legal certainty they have waited for.
That is the demand catalyst the supply meets. Its impact depends heavily on the supply conditions it meets.
If a multi-billion-dollar wave of institutional buying arrives into a market with abundant sellable supply, the supply absorbs much of the demand and the price moves less. If it arrives into a market with a seven-year low in available supply, the thin sell side cannot absorb the demand without a much larger price move.
The exchange-reserve drawdown is precisely what would amplify the effect of a CLARITY-driven demand shock. It turns a given amount of buying into a larger price response because there is so little XRP positioned to sell into it.
This is why the reserve figure is the one to watch in the current setup: it is the supply-side condition that determines how violently XRP would react to the demand-side catalyst that the CLARITY Act represents. Two blades of the scissor are demand and supply: the potential CLARITY inflows on one side and the compressed available supply on the other.
A sharp move requires both, strong demand meeting thin supply. Whale accumulation is consistent with this picture and may be part of why reserves have fallen, as large holders move coins off exchanges into storage.
But it is the resulting supply scarcity, not the concentration itself, that would amplify a demand shock. That is why the demand side of the setup matters as much as the reserve chart: the supply squeeze only becomes price action if buyers actually arrive.
The setup that matters is thin sellable supply waiting in front of a potential large demand catalyst, and the seven-year reserve low is the measure of how thin that supply has become. That combination, not the whale headline, is what would drive a violent move if CLARITY passes.
The bearish reading, honestly stated
A fair analysis has to state the other side, because the same setup that could amplify an upside move carries real risks, and the supply-squeeze story is not a guarantee of anything.
One caution is that thin supply amplifies moves in both directions. A compressed exchange reserve means demand moves the price more, but it also means that if selling pressure arrives, perhaps from the very whales whose concentration is at a record, the thin liquidity amplifies the downside too.
There are fewer buyers positioned to absorb a wave of selling. A coiled spring can release in either direction, and a market with thin liquidity and concentrated holdings is one where a few large holders deciding to sell could produce a sharp decline.
That is exactly the risk the whale-concentration figure embodies. The supply-squeeze setup is not inherently bullish; it is a condition of heightened sensitivity to whatever demand or supply shock arrives, and the direction depends on which shock comes first.
Another caution is that the entire upside case depends on the CLARITY catalyst actually arriving, which is deeply uncertain. The demand shock that thin supply would amplify is contingent on the bill passing and the institutional inflows materializing.
That is why a statute changes the picture: without legal certainty, the institutional demand side may not arrive in the size the setup needs.
If CLARITY stalls or fails, the demand catalyst does not arrive, the thin supply does nothing on its own, and XRP can continue to drift or fall on the same macro forces pressuring the whole market. A coiled spring with no force applied to it simply sits there.
A supply squeeze without a demand catalyst is not a bullish setup but a neutral one waiting for an input that may not come. The honest reading is that the seven-year reserve low is a genuine and meaningful supply-side condition, but it is a setup, not a prediction.
It points to amplified volatility, not guaranteed upside, with the direction and the timing both dependent on catalysts outside the on-chain data. The mechanics are real; the outcome is not foreordained.
What it means for investors
For anyone reading these on-chain figures, the practical lesson is about which numbers to trust and how to think about what they imply.
One takeaway is to weight the exchange-reserve figure over the whale-concentration figure when assessing XRP’s setup, because the reserve number cleanly measures sellable supply while the whale number ambiguously measures ownership. Sellable supply is what shapes how the price responds to demand.
An investor watching XRP should treat the seven-year reserve low as the more meaningful signal, the indication that the supply side is tight and that any significant demand would have outsized price impact. The record whale concentration should be treated as interesting but ambiguous context that could be bullish accumulation or a concentration of selling risk.
Reading the cleaner signal over the dramatic headline is the discipline that distinguishes informed analysis from repeating talking points.
Another takeaway is to understand the setup as conditional, not predictive. Thin supply is a real condition, but it produces a move only when a catalyst applies force, and the most likely near-term catalyst is the binary CLARITY vote, which could unlock major demand or fail to arrive at all.
XRP’s broader ecosystem also matters here, because the supply-demand setup sits alongside XRP’s institutional utility case, including tokenized settlement and RLUSD-linked infrastructure. Utility can support the long-term thesis, but it still needs a clear demand channel to move price.
An investor should hold the supply-squeeze setup as a reason XRP could move sharply if a demand catalyst lands, not as a standalone bullish signal. It should be paired with a clear-eyed view of the catalyst’s uncertainty and of the downside risk that thin liquidity and concentrated holdings also create.
The setup amplifies whatever comes; it does not determine what comes. That is also part of the longer-term outlook, where legal clarity, ETF flows, tokenized settlement, and supply conditions all interact rather than moving in isolation.
None of this is investment advice; it is a frame for reading two widely cited on-chain numbers accurately, weighting the one that measures available supply over the one that measures concentration, and understanding both as conditions that shape volatility, not predictions of direction.
The signal and the noise
Two on-chain numbers about XRP are circulating, and they are not equally meaningful. The record whale concentration of 68.5% makes the dramatic headline, but it is ambiguous, measuring who holds the supply without reliably telling you why or what they will do.
It cuts both ways between bullish accumulation and concentrated selling risk. The seven-year low in exchange reserves makes the quieter headline, but it is the cleaner signal.
It measures the supply available to sell and points to a multi-year minimum in sellable XRP, a structural condition that shapes how the price would respond to demand regardless of anyone’s intentions.
The reserve figure matters more for what it sets up: thin sellable supply waiting in front of a potential large demand catalyst in the CLARITY Act, a combination where a multi-billion-dollar inflow meeting a compressed supply could produce an outsized move. That is a genuine and meaningful setup, but it is a setup, not a prediction, because the thin supply amplifies moves in both directions and the upside depends entirely on a demand catalyst that may or may not arrive.
Read accurately, XRP’s on-chain picture is one of tight available supply and concentrated ownership sitting in front of a binary legislative catalyst. It is a condition of heightened sensitivity rather than a guarantee of direction.
The seven-year reserve low is the number that matters, the whale count is the number that gets attention, and knowing the difference is the difference between reading the signal and repeating the noise.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean that XRP exchange reserves hit a seven-year low?
Exchange reserves are the amount of XRP held in exchange wallets, a proxy for the supply readily available to sell. The seven-year low of roughly 1.6 billion tokens, down about 50% from October 2025’s 3.76 billion peak, means the readily sellable supply of XRP has compressed to a multi-year minimum. This matters because thin sell-side supply means incoming demand has less to absorb it, so the same buying pressure can produce a larger price move.
Why does the article say reserves matter more than the whale count?
Because the reserve figure cleanly measures sellable supply, which directly shapes how the price responds to demand, while the whale-concentration figure ambiguously measures who owns the supply, one step removed from price action. To turn whale concentration into a price implication, you have to guess what the whales are and will do. The reserve figure needs no such guess, since less supply on exchanges tightens the market regardless of why it left. The cleaner signal is the more reliable one.
Is the record whale concentration bullish for XRP?
It is more ambiguous than it sounds. Whales holding 68.5% of supply, the highest since 2018, is often read as bullish accumulation, and the broader data does show large holders buying through the drawdown. But high concentration also means potential selling pressure sits in few hands, a risk if those holders exit. And whale wallets can be accumulators, custodians, exchanges, or institutions, with different meanings, so the number is noisy context rather than a clear bullish signal.
How does the supply squeeze connect to the CLARITY Act?
The CLARITY Act, if passed, would codify XRP’s commodity status and could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows by analyst projections, a large demand catalyst. Thin available supply amplifies the effect of demand: a multi-billion-dollar inflow meeting a seven-year low in sellable XRP could produce a much larger price move than the same demand meeting abundant supply. The reserve drawdown is what would amplify a CLARITY-driven demand shock.
Does a low exchange reserve guarantee the price will rise?
No. Thin supply amplifies moves in both directions: if selling pressure arrives, perhaps from concentrated whale holders, thin liquidity amplifies the downside too. And the upside case depends on a demand catalyst, mainly the CLARITY vote, actually arriving; if it stalls, the thin supply does nothing on its own and XRP can keep drifting on macro forces. The reserve low is a setup that heightens sensitivity to catalysts, not a prediction of direction.
What should investors take from these on-chain numbers?
Weight the exchange-reserve figure over the whale-concentration figure, because it cleanly measures sellable supply while the whale number ambiguously measures ownership. Treat the seven-year reserve low as a meaningful sign that supply is tight and demand would have outsized impact, and the whale concentration as ambiguous context. Understand the setup as conditional: thin supply produces a move only when a catalyst applies force, and the main near-term catalyst, the CLARITY vote, is uncertain and could push either way.
As of June 19, 2026. On-chain data and markets change quickly; verify current figures before relying on this analysis. This article is information, not investment advice.
In April 2026, Aave faced one of the sharpest liquidity shocks in recent DeFi history. According to Galaxy’s analysis referenced in the coverage, users withdrew roughly $8.45 billion from the protocol in the aftermath of the KelpDAO rsETH bridge exploit. The key point for investors and users: Aave’s contracts were not compromised, but connected markets still experienced severe stress.
The episode quickly became a referendum on what “survival” really means for decentralized lending. Aave continued operating, yet analysts and risk observers argued that a functioning core does not automatically translate into comprehensive safety—especially when collateral, borrowing demand, and liquidity are tied to external assets and across multiple protocols.
Key takeaways
- Aave was not hacked; the turmoil followed an external rsETH bridge incident that propagated into Aave via collateral and liquidity linkages.
- Roughly $8.45 billion flowed out after the April 2026 rsETH exploit, illustrating how quickly DeFi can experience bank-run-like dynamics.
- Aave relied on built-in risk tooling and emergency controls to contain damage as some pools hit full utilization, limiting immediate withdrawals.
- Surviving a single stress event does not settle debates about DeFi systemic risk, including concentration and fast-moving user behavior.
- For users, protocol size and transparency are not substitutes for understanding the assets behind lending markets and governance changes.
A stress event triggered outside Aave
The pressure did not originate in Aave’s own code. It began with the KelpDAO rsETH bridge exploit in April 2026, where attackers stole about $292 million worth of rsETH from KelpDAO’s LayerZero bridge. That theft intensified concerns that some rsETH holdings might not be fully backed.
Those concerns mattered to Aave because rsETH was used beyond its source ecosystem. As the token’s perceived backing came into question, the risk spread to DeFi markets that accepted rsETH as collateral. In practical terms, when collateral loses credibility, lenders face increased exposure to bad debt, while borrowers and depositors tend to reposition to reduce risk—often by withdrawing.
That is where liquidity stress accelerated. As more users attempted to exit, some Aave markets saw utilization climb toward the ceiling. When pools approach or reach full utilization, withdrawals become harder for certain participants because the liquidity needed to satisfy redemptions is already deployed. In other words, the episode looked like a DeFi version of a bank run—not because Aave failed to follow its internal rules, but because DeFi markets can react instantly and continuously on-chain.
What Aave’s founder argues—and why it isn’t the end of the debate
Aave founder Stani Kulechov framed the event as evidence of resilience: the core protocol logic continued to work as designed even amid high stress. That distinction is important. Aave did not suffer a direct exploit of its own contracts; however, the surrounding markets were still forced into emergency modes as external asset disruption rippled through collateral and borrowing channels.
Supporters point to the transparency and determinism of DeFi lending—features that differ from traditional banking crises. Collateral and risk settings are visible on-chain, liquidation mechanisms follow predefined smart contract rules, and participants can inspect activity in real time. In theory, such properties reduce some information asymmetries that have historically contributed to conventional financial breakdowns.
Yet independent analysts, as reflected in the coverage, took a more cautious view. The core argument is not that Aave failed to function; it is that “functioning under stress” may not be sufficient to prove that the system is safe in the broader sense. If adverse shocks continue to arrive from connected components—bridges, collateral issuers, or other DeFi venues—then Aave’s ability to limp through one crisis does not guarantee it will navigate the next without more severe outcomes.
Survival versus safety: the role of concentration and network effects
Critics warn against treating a single successful defense as full validation. Stress events can be interpreted through multiple lenses: strong design helps, but favorable conditions and the specific nature of the shock also matter. In the rsETH case, the market still experienced liquidity strains severe enough to require emergency action, including freezes and risk parameter adjustments.
Another concern highlighted in the coverage is concentration risk. Independent observers noted that large exposures can be spread across many DeFi platforms at once. If a small number of actors control outsized positions, their decisions—such as exiting or closing during volatility—can amplify instability system-wide. The same concentration dynamic has been a longstanding concern in traditional finance, and DeFi’s composable architecture can translate it into a faster-moving ecosystem.
Beyond actor concentration, DeFi’s composability is a double-edged sword. Interoperability helps protocols grow and coordinate liquidity across the ecosystem, but it also creates more pathways for stress to spread. When a lending market depends on collateral that is itself linked to leveraged positions and other connected systems, the resulting network can become harder to unwind during shocks. The condition of the wider DeFi system therefore cannot be separated from a single protocol’s performance.
Unlike regulated banks that can run supervised stress tests under defined frameworks, DeFi’s stress tests happen live—using real user funds, real collateral, and no rehearsals. That doesn’t mean DeFi lacks testing; it means the “test” may occur while markets are already under strain.
How Aave’s risk controls shaped the outcome
Even though the incident began elsewhere, Aave’s internal safeguards influenced what happened next. The platform manages borrowing and liquidation through structured limits such as loan-to-value parameters and liquidation thresholds, while also using mechanisms like supply caps and borrow caps to control how much exposure can build around specific assets.
Aave also uses features designed to reduce cross-asset contagion. Isolation Mode can restrict the impact of higher-risk collateral, while Efficiency Mode (E-Mode) applies special settings for assets that typically move together. Governance, with support from risk advisers, is intended to adjust these parameters as needed—though, as observers note, governance changes can take time, and risk models may not fully anticipate rapid spillover during novel conditions.
During the withdrawal surge, these measures generally held, with core protocol functions continuing to operate. Still, utilization reached 100% in major pools in the coverage description, which helps explain why some withdrawals could not be processed smoothly. The takeaway is not that controls prevented all harm; it’s that they likely narrowed the scope of what might otherwise have become a complete failure.
What users and builders should watch next
The rsETH episode shows that Aave can survive extreme liquidity stress without a direct protocol exploit, but it also highlights how external asset failures can quickly propagate through collateral and liquidity connections. Going forward, readers should focus on how quickly risk parameters can be adapted through governance, how effectively protocols manage external collateral dependencies, and whether the ecosystem’s concentration and composability risks are addressed with the same urgency as smart-contract security.
Crypto World
Nvidia (NVDA) Captures Top Data Center Ethernet Switching Position in Historic Market Shift
Key Takeaways
- Nvidia secured the leading position in data center Ethernet switching revenue during Q1 2026 — marking its first time at the top
- The company’s switching revenue surged 192.7% compared to the previous year, reaching $2.1 billion and capturing 21.5% market share
- Spectrum-X platform fueled this growth, securing major contracts with hyperscalers and AI-focused cloud service providers
- Total Ethernet switch market expanded 39.8% to $15.4 billion; data center category grew 61% to reach $10 billion
- Arista maintained a strong second-place position in data centers; Cisco continues dominating the broader Ethernet switching landscape
Nvidia recorded $2.1 billion in switching revenue during Q1 2026, representing a remarkable 192.7% increase year over year. This performance propelled the company to claim the leading position in data center Ethernet switching by revenue — a segment where it wasn’t even the frontrunner twelve months earlier.
These figures emerged from IDC’s Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker, published this Thursday.
NVDA shares climbed 2.95% during trading.
The driving force behind this dramatic expansion is Spectrum-X, Nvidia’s comprehensive AI networking solution. This platform combines Spectrum Ethernet switches, BlueField DPUs, and LinkX cables into a unified system specifically engineered for massive GPU cluster deployments.
This integration strategy is proving decisive in competitive situations. Hyperscalers and AI-focused cloud platforms constructing AI factories require networking infrastructure capable of supporting the demands of contemporary training and inference operations. Spectrum-X was purpose-built to address precisely these requirements.
Paul Nicholson, Research VP at IDC, stated emphatically: “NVIDIA’s rise to #1 in datacenter Ethernet switching in a single year is one of the most significant vendor landscape shifts IDC has tracked in enterprise networking.”
He continued, noting that Spectrum-X is “winning AI factory deals that incumbent networking vendors cannot match with standalone hardware alone.”
Widespread Market Expansion
The data center switching category delivered robust performance beyond just Nvidia — the entire segment demonstrated strength. IDC’s research showed the category expanded 61% year over year, reaching $10 billion in Q1. Meanwhile, the complete Ethernet switch market increased 39.8% to achieve $15.4 billion.
AI infrastructure investments are powering this growth. Hyperscalers and major enterprises alike are implementing AI technologies at scale, creating substantial demand for high-speed, minimal-latency networking solutions. The campus and branch category also recorded impressive performance, climbing 12.3% to $5.4 billion, supported by hardware modernization cycles and increasing component costs.
Arista (ANET) secured the second position in data center switching and similarly gained 2.87% by market close. Cisco maintains its leadership in the comprehensive Ethernet switching market, encompassing campus and enterprise segments alongside data center.
Future Outlook
IDC projects sustained momentum in the Ethernet switch market throughout 2026, fueled by ongoing AI investments from hyperscalers and enterprise customers. Demand for 800G and higher-capacity switching is anticipated to remain strong as inference deployment expands alongside training operations.
Nvidia’s leadership position won’t go uncontested. IDC identified Cisco, Arista, and Broadcom (AVGO) as competitors poised to intensify their competitive strategies within the data center segment.
For the campus market, IDC observed that revenue growth might decelerate if memory supply limitations diminish and reduce the pricing advantages that have recently elevated average selling prices.
IDC additionally highlighted macroeconomic concerns — including tariffs and regional economic uncertainty — as potential factors that could dampen expenditures in certain markets.
During Q1, Nvidia’s data center switching revenue represented 21.5% of the total segment, derived entirely from data center applications rather than campus or branch deployments.
- Cardano (ADA) trades near $0.160 with weak momentum and fading buying pressure.
- The key support at $0.157 is critical, with $0.13 risk if it breaks.
- Oversold signals and the Leios testnet could trigger a short rebound soon.
Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, holding near the lower end of its recent range as both spot and derivatives markets reflect cautious sentiment.
The token is priced at $0.1607, down 3.2% in the past 24 hours.
Over longer timeframes, the token is down 6.1% over the past 7 days, down 35.6% over the past month, and down 73.2% in the past year, reflecting sustained downside pressure across the broader trend structure.
Daily trading activity, however, remains active, with $368.8 million in 24-hour volume.
Weak derivatives positioning and fading participation
In the derivatives market, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.96, indicating slightly more short positions than long positions among traders.
Futures open interest is around $348 million, continuing a broader decline from mid-May levels.
This reduction in open interest signals lower speculative engagement and suggests that traders are reducing exposure rather than building conviction positions in either direction.
On-chain indicators also reflect strain in market behaviour.
The Network Realised Profit/Loss (NPL) metric has dropped sharply, showing that a large portion of recent holders have been realising losses rather than gains.
This type of activity is commonly associated with capitulation phases, where weaker holders exit positions under sustained price pressure.
Cardano technical analysis
Cardano remains below its major long-term moving averages, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish.
The altcoin’s price is trading under the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which typically reinforces resistance during attempted recoveries.
The RSI (14) on the daily chart is around 31, suggesting bearish control is still present, though no longer in extreme oversold territory.
Cardano price outlook heading into the Leios testnet catalyst
A key event in the near-term outlook is the expected Leios scaling upgrade testnet around June 23.
This upgrade testnet is being closely watched as a potential catalyst for renewed activity within the Cardano ecosystem.
The current market structure at this stage remains weak, but conditions are showing early signs of compression.
Oversold readings on higher timeframes, combined with reduced selling momentum, suggest that price is approaching a decision point rather than continuing in a steady decline without interruption.
If bulls step in around the $0.157 support zone, a short-term rebound toward $0.172 remains the primary recovery scenario.
However, failure to hold this level would keep downside projections toward $0.148 and potentially $0.13 in focus, depending on how market liquidity and sentiment evolve.
Notably, a bearish flag breakdown has also been noted in recent technical assessments, a formation that typically signals continuation of an existing downtrend after a brief consolidation phase.
This adds weight to the downside risk scenario unless buyers regain control above key resistance levels.
Key Highlights
- Shares of TSM have skyrocketed 102.41% in the past twelve months, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500’s 25.39% return.
- First quarter 2026 revenue reached $35.90 billion, marking a 35.1% increase compared to the prior year, driven by High-Performance Computing at 61% of sales.
- Monthly revenue for May climbed 30.1% year-over-year, maintaining a consistent 30% growth rate across the first five months.
- Analysts project FY2026 earnings per share at $15.76, placing TSM at approximately $462 with a forward price-to-earnings multiple near 29x.
- The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) alongside a Momentum Style Score of B; Wall Street consensus shows Strong Buy with an average target of $465.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) has delivered extraordinary returns — climbing more than 100% over the past year — and market watchers believe there’s more upside ahead.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
Shares of TSM are currently changing hands near $462. The stock has climbed 24.27% in just the past three months and has doubled in value over the trailing year. By comparison, the broader S&P 500 index advanced only 25.39% during the same timeframe.
At least one analyst now suggests TSM has the potential to hit $500 per share, pointing to what they characterize as underappreciated earnings strength and a dominant position in cutting-edge chip production.
The Street’s consensus earnings forecast for fiscal year 2026 sits at $15.76 per share, implying a forward valuation multiple of approximately 29x. With the semiconductor sector’s median multiple hovering around 33x, some observers see opportunity for TSM’s valuation to expand.
A bullish perspective suggests actual earnings power may be closer to $18.48 for FY2026, which would place the stock at roughly 25x forward earnings — a more attractive valuation than headline figures indicate.
Consistent Top-Line Momentum
TSMC delivered first quarter 2026 revenue of $35.90 billion, representing a 35.1% jump from the year-ago period. High-Performance Computing applications contributed 61% of total revenue, while cutting-edge manufacturing processes at 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm nodes generated 74% of wafer revenue.
The 3nm process technology alone represented 25% of wafer revenue — highlighting where TSMC’s premium pricing capability resides.
Recent monthly figures support the growth trajectory. May revenue increased 30.1% versus the prior year. The five-month cumulative revenue expansion for 2026 stands at 30%.
TSMC has adjusted its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance toward the upper boundary of its $52 billion to $56 billion range. The chipmaker is scaling capacity to address substantial order volumes from major clients including Nvidia, Apple, and AMD.
The Path to $500 Per Share
Chief Executive C.C. Wei has stated that worldwide semiconductor supply will fall short of AI-related demand for the foreseeable future.
TSMC is expanding manufacturing operations with new fabrication facilities in Taiwan, Arizona, and Japan. The company is simultaneously advancing Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate (CoPoS) packaging solutions designed for next-generation artificial intelligence processors.
What Analysts Are Saying
TSM currently holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) classification along with a Momentum Style Score of B. During the previous 60 days, two earnings projections for FY2026 were revised upward while none were lowered. The full-year consensus figure increased from $15.10 to $15.30 throughout that window.
Among Wall Street firms, TSM carries a Strong Buy consensus derived from five Buy recommendations and one Hold rating. Zero analysts currently assign it a Sell rating.
The mean price objective among these analysts stands at $465, suggesting modest upside of approximately 0.62% from present levels within the coming 12 months.
TSM’s weekly price movement shows a gain of 2.11%, in line with the Zacks Semiconductor – Circuit Foundry industry benchmark. The stock’s average 20-day trading volume registers around 11.6 million shares.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Cloud mining adoption is rising in 2026 as platforms like SHRMiner, BitFuFu, IQMining, Binance Cloud Mining, and CCG Mining offer simplified crypto mining access.
Summary
- Cloud mining in 2026 lets users mine BTC, DOGE, and LTC without hardware, with SHRMiner, BitFuFu, and Binance Cloud Mining leading options.
- SHRMiner offers beginner-friendly cloud mining with auto payouts, renewable energy farms, and no hardware or technical setup required.
- Investors compare platforms by security, transparency, and contracts, with SHRMiner highlighted for ease of use and multi-crypto support.
Want to participate in Bitcoin mining in 2026 but don’t want to buy expensive mining rigs? Then, cloud mining platforms remain one of the simplest and most worry-free options.
Nowadays, more and more investors are entering the market through free cloud mining platforms, easily participating in mining mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, DOGE, and LTC without needing to build their own equipment or bear high electricity and maintenance costs.
However, while there are many platforms on the market, only a few are truly worth considering. A good cloud mining platform should not only have a clear and transparent profit mechanism, but also a stable data center, an automatic payment system, and a sufficiently secure operational background.
Based on the market trends and platform characteristics in 2026, SHRMiner, BitFuFu, IQMining, Binance Cloud Mining, and CCG Mining are the five platforms that deserve close attention.
1. SHR Miner: The most noteworthy cloud mining platform in 2026
For those looking for a service that balances security, flexibility, and beginner-friendliness, SHRMiner is a very popular choice. Launched in 2018 and headquartered in the UK, SHRMiner operates over 100 large-scale renewable energy mining farms in the US, UK, Russia, Switzerland, Iceland, Virginia, Georgia, Vancouver, Canada, and other locations, utilizing renewable energy sources such as hydropower and wind power to enhance mining efficiency.
The platform supports mining mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, LTC, and DOGE. Users do not need to purchase any hardware; they only need to select a suitable contract to start. Its contract coverage is extensive, with a comprehensive range of entry-level and premium packages to suit users with different budgets.
SHRMiner Core Advantages:
Register to receive a $15 bonus and free mining experience.
Zero learning curve: No technical skills, hardware, or complicated operations required — just click to start mining.
Supports daily automatic settlement, with no transaction fees or maintenance costs.
Uses advanced ASIC mining equipment, connected to green energy, improving operational efficiency.
Provides SSL encryption and DDoS protection.
Provides a real-time earnings dashboard, allowing users to track their earnings anytime, anywhere.
Supports multiple contract types including BTC, LTC, and DOGE.
SHRMiner gained popularity in 2026 primarily because it was suitable for beginners to quickly get started while also supporting more advanced users for flexible configuration. Its overall performance was well-balanced, from the initial user experience to contract scalability.
2. BitFuFu: A professional platform backed by Bitmain
BitFuFu has garnered significant market attention due to its association with Bitmain. This type of platform is particularly attractive to users who value mining rig resources and hardware expertise. BitFuFu is suitable for investors seeking a more mature mining service system.
3. IQMining: A Key Focus for Long-Term Contract Users
IQMining has been operating for several years and is characterized by offering longer-term mining contracts. For users who prioritize long-term planning over short-term volatility, IQMining is a common choice.
4. Binance Cloud Mining: Integrated trading and mining
The biggest advantage of Binance Cloud Mining lies in its ecosystem integration. Users can manage mining and asset transfers directly within their Binance accounts, eliminating the need for frequent platform switching. This is especially convenient for existing Binance investors.
5. CCG Mining: A key platform in the European market
CCG Mining offers a comprehensive range of services, including cloud mining, mining rig sales, and hosting. It enjoys considerable brand recognition in the European market and is suitable for users looking to explore diverse mining services.
Why are more and more people choosing cloud mining in 2026?
Compared to traditional mining rigs, the biggest advantages of cloud mining are:
- No need to purchase expensive equipment
- No need to bear high electricity bills
- No need for technical maintenance knowledge
- Quick start after registration
Some platforms also offer free trials and reward mechanisms. For ordinary users, this model is obviously more convenient and more suitable for low-barrier entry into the crypto market.
Conclusion: Which cloud mining platform is worth paying attention to in 2026?
From an overall user experience perspective, SHRMiner remains one of the most competitive platforms in 2026. It excels in platform transparency, mining process, settlement efficiency, and beginner-friendly features, while supporting multiple cryptocurrencies including BTC, LTC, and DOGE, making it highly versatile.
Of course, for those who prioritize exchange integration, Binance Cloud Mining will be more convenient; for those who value long-term stable contracts, IQMining and CCG Mining are also good options.
In general, when choosing the best cloud mining platform, it is recommended to focus on the platform’s background, security mechanisms, contract flexibility, and actual user experience. For users looking to start their free cloud mining journey in 2026, prioritizing a transparent, secure platform with clear settlement is a safer bet.
In short, for those who are looking for a cloud mining platform that balances transparency, flexibility, and ease of use in 2026, SHRMiner is a wise choice.
For more platform information, service details, and cloud computing solutions, visit the official platform or download the mobile application.
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
Bitcoin fell to around $62,000 on Friday, while CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned that Michael Saylor’s continued accumulation strategy may not be enough to address what he considers the market’s most serious threat.
Summary
- Ki Young Ju warned that Bitcoin’s biggest threat is prolonged stagnation rather than a sudden crash.
- Ju argued Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases cannot replace the need for a new market narrative.
- QCP, Peter Schiff, and Ju have all raised concerns about pressure on Strategy’s STRC structure.
In a June 19 X post, Ki Young Ju argued that Bitcoin faces a greater threat than a sudden price crash. According to the CryptoQuant CEO, a prolonged period of weak performance could gradually erode investor conviction, making it harder for the asset to attract fresh capital and maintain the narratives that have supported previous bull markets.
Discussing Strategy’s role in the market, Ju argued that buying more Bitcoin does not solve the underlying issue.
“That’s why Saylor’s real challenge is not just buying more Bitcoin. It is giving the market a new reason to believe.”
The remarks come as concerns surrounding Strategy’s financing structure continue to grow. STRC, the company’s preferred stock, recently fell to a record low near $82, placing it well below its $100 par value and raising questions about investor demand.
Strategy faces pressure if Bitcoin stagnates
While Ju said investors can tolerate sharp drawdowns when they expect a recovery, he argued that extended sideways trading presents a different problem. According to his analysis, a long bear market could weaken enthusiasm for Bitcoin and put additional strain on Strategy’s ability to raise capital.
Ju warned that STRC becomes most vulnerable when Bitcoin spends years moving sideways rather than experiencing a short-lived crash. As investor interest fades, he said demand for the company’s securities could decline, making fundraising more difficult.
Similar concerns have emerged elsewhere on Wall Street. Market maker QCP recently estimated that Strategy’s current liquidity position provides roughly seven and a half months of runway for dividend payments. QCP noted that the company has already repurchased nearly $1.5 billion of convertible notes due in 2029 while raising about $200 million through MSTR stock sales.
In QCP’s assessment, selling Bitcoin could become one option if Strategy seeks to preserve dividend payments while maintaining its treasury strategy.
Criticism has also come from longtime Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff. As previously reported by crypto.news, Schiff argued that investors who purchased STRC for income may have underestimated the risks involved. He further claimed that future fundraising could become more expensive if new investors demand higher yields to compensate for the stock’s decline below par value.
Bitcoin still lacks its next defining narrative
Looking beyond Strategy, Ju argued that Bitcoin needs a new story capable of attracting the next wave of capital.
Reflecting on previous market cycles, he noted that major milestones once viewed as distant possibilities have already happened. Ju pointed to the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and growing political support for Bitcoin in the U.S. as examples of narratives that have already played out.
“When I founded CryptoQuant in 2018, I strongly believed a Bitcoin ETF would eventually be approved,” Ju wrote, adding that he also expected a future U.S. president to openly support Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
With those developments now in place, Ju questioned what catalyst could unite investors during the next phase of adoption. Although Michael Saylor has promoted concepts such as Bitcoin banking and digital credit, Ju expressed uncertainty about whether those ideas would resonate with everyday investors.
His warning arrives as financial conditions remain restrictive. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh led a unanimous vote to keep interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, while policymakers indicated inflation remains above target.
Higher borrowing costs have continued to weigh on risk assets, adding another challenge for Bitcoin at a time when investors are already searching for a new source of conviction.
Even so, Saylor remains firmly optimistic. Speaking at BTC Prague 2026, the Strategy executive chairman predicted Bitcoin could eventually reach $7 million per coin and argued that the network’s value could one day grow to $100 trillion, underscoring the gap between his long-term outlook and the concerns now being raised by market critics.
XRP price is down by 4% over the past 24 hours, after an on-chain data confirmed a coordinated wave of whale distribution that erased a multi-day rally in under 72 hours. The token briefly touched $1.29 before sellers stepped in hard, and large-wallet behavior is now the dominant price driver.
According to data, wallets holding at least 1 million XRP offloaded more than 30 million tokens over five days, with Santiment data showing combined large-address holdings dropping from 3.82 billion to 3.77 billion XRP.
This supply hit spot exchanges directly, absorbing the buying pressure that had built from a $1.14 base on June 14. A cascade of leveraged long liquidations in derivatives markets accelerated the drop, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivering hawkish signals that killed rate-cut expectations and hit risk assets globally.
The macro overhang is not going away fast. Can XRP’s spot ETF inflows of $5.30 million on June 16 and $2.55 million on June 18 be enough to absorb continued whale selling?
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XRP Price Prediction: $1.20 or Is a Test of $1.05 Next?
XRP is currently consolidating near $1.12, having lost every support level it built during the June rally. The move from $1.14 to $1.29 and back down was a full round-trip with nothing to show for it.
Resistance is now stacked between $1.20 and $1.25, the range where profit-taking overwhelmed buying. Below the current price, the next meaningful support zone sits near $1.05, flagged by analysts as the next critical battleground.
A daily close beneath $1.10 would make that test highly likely. Momentum indicators remain bearish, with price trading below short-term moving averages and volume on down days outpacing recovery sessions.
If whale selling exhausts, and ETF inflows accelerate, XRP could reclaim $1.20 within the week and sets up a retest of highs. The ETF inflow data offers a genuine counterpoint for bear
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Maxi Doge Presale Draws Rotation Capital as XRP Stalls at Key Levels
When a mid-cap like XRP gives back a full rally in three days with no structural damage repaired, active traders start scanning for asymmetric setups elsewhere. That rotation is real, and it tends to favor early-stage projects where the entry price hasn’t already been through a 4% haircut before the week ends.
Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is pulling that attention in the meme token segment. Built on Ethereum, the project frames itself around high-conviction trading culture, 1000x leverage mentality, holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards, and a Maxi Fund treasury designed for liquidity management and partnerships.
The presale has raised $4.8 million at a current token price of $0.0002824, with dynamic staking APY available to participants. The community competition structure differentiates it from pure meme plays with no retention mechanism.
Traders considering a position should research Maxi Doge.
The post XRP Price Under Pressure: 30M XRP Whale Sale Pushes Token Down 4% appeared first on Cryptonews.
This Friday, we examine Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid in greater detail.
Ethereum (ETH)
This week, Ethereum is up 2%, but that is hardly relevant given that the price has failed to reclaim the $1,800 resistance. Sellers returned there to keep the price locked in under this key level.
With the uptrend halted, this cryptocurrency is forced to range between support at $1,500 and resistance at $1,800.
Looking ahead, because sellers appear to control price action, they’re likely to make another attempt to break the key support. If ETH shows weakness and loses $1,500, then new yearly lows will materialize with key targets at $1,400 and $1,100.
Ripple (XRP)
XRP closed the week in red with a modest 1% loss. While that is not much, the more concerning aspect is that the price was rejected at the $1.3 resistance, and since then it’s only been down.
If nothing changes, then this cryptocurrency is on a clear path to revisit the support at $1 where buyers showed up a few weeks ago. The question is if they will return there again or shy away.
Looking ahead, the XRP chart shows weakness with buyers absent. This has encouraged sellers to step up, and they are dominating right now. This could change once the price hits $1, but this is still uncertain now.
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano fell by 4% this week, and after losing support at $0.24, its market cap dropped significantly. This caused it to lose several places on the list of the biggest coins by market cap, where it now ranks 16th, behind the likes of Stellar and Monero.
The price found short-term relief at the $0.15 support, but this appears to have ended as of this post. Now, sellers are back, and they may soon test this key support again with the aim of breaking it and pushing ADA even lower.
Looking ahead, if bears are successful in the coming days, the price could quickly fall again to hit new lows around $0.10, where the next major support level is located. This would be quite unfortunate and prolong the existing downtrend that started in 2025.
Binance Coin (BNB)
After a long battle and consolidation, it appears BNB is finally falling below its support at $580. Because of this, it also closes the week 5% lower. If nothing changes and buyers don’t return, then $580 will turn into resistance, with lower lows likely.
The next key support is found at $500, and this level is likely to be tested if this bearish momentum persists. Since sellers appear to be dominating across the market, a reversal here appears unlikely.
Looking ahead, Binance Coin’s pause between $580 and $690 is about to end. This flat consolidation lasted for six months and a breakdown is a significant bearish signal. Expect new lows this year if bulls cannot regain control.
Hype (HYPE)
Surprisingly, HYPE closed the week 16% higher after a strong performance by buyers, briefly pushing it to $76. However, since then, the price entered a pullback which could see it return to the support at $63.
While the overall momentum remains bullish, the current price pattern may indicate a double top around $76. To confirm this, the price will need to make a lower low under $52 later on.
Looking ahead, buyers and sellers are actively competing to control the price. Right now, the ball is changing hands every few days. While buyers still appear to have the advantage, this remains fragile at the time of this post.
The post Crypto Price Analysis June 19: ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE appeared first on CryptoPotato.
The XRP community’s reaction to the Ripple Swell 2026 announcement was immediate and hostile. Retail holders flooded the @RippleSwell reply thread within hours of the announcement. The consistent theme was not excitement about 1,500 attendees or a merged XRPL Apex agenda; it was anger that Ripple’s flagship institutional event appears to be building a case for RLUSD while XRP falls.
The frustration has a specific target as Ripple’s USD-pegged stablecoin is taking up conference oxygen that long-term holders believe should belong to XRP. Community members used language that ranged from sharp to outright furious. The community is even calling Ripple’s leadership out by name, including CEO Brad Garlinghouse.
The underlying accusation is not subtle. Ripple is constructing a regulated institutional business around RLUSD while XRP’s price stagnates and holders are disappointed.
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Swell 2026 Scope: What’s Ripple Actually Doing
Swell 2026 is scheduled for October 27–29 at The Shed in Hudson Yards, New York City, and represents the first time Ripple is folding its developer-focused XRPL Apex summit into the main Swell conference. The combined event is targeting 1,500-plus attendees, 75-plus speakers, and 50-plus sessions across three programmatic stages covering finance, blockchain infrastructure, and digital assets.
Ripple’s stated agenda themes include payments, tokenization, decentralized finance, AI applications, interoperability, and stablecoins. RLUSD’s role in enterprise treasury management and cross-border settlement is a prominent feature of the institutional track.
The XRP Ledger’s milestone of surpassing 4 billion completed transactions is being cited by Garlinghouse as evidence that the network has matured enough for the institutional audience Ripple is targeting.
Garlinghouse framed the moment with deliberate confidence:
“I’ve been in crypto long enough to know when a moment is real”
The statement positions Swell 2026 as a threshold event for institutional crypto adoption, which is accurate as a description of Ripple’s ambition, but says nothing specific about what that adoption means for XRP price or holder value.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
XRP Holders Are Not Hiding Their Frustration
The community sentiment is not a fringe reaction. Retail XRP holders expressed a clear and recurring grievance. Ripple is allocating conference prominence to RLUSD and institutional partnerships while XRP’s price continues to underperform relative to the company’s corporate milestones.
The tone in several replies was openly hostile toward Garlinghouse and the Ripple leadership team, with holders describing themselves as investors who have been systematically sidelined.
The token burn argument has re-emerged as a focal point. A portion of the XRP community is pushing for supply reduction as a mechanism to create direct price pressure, a demand that Ripple has consistently declined to act on.
That refusal, combined with a conference agenda that leads with stablecoins and tokenization rather than XRP utility, is being read by holders as a signal about where Ripple’s actual priorities sit.
Community sentiment of this intensity is a legitimate market signal. When the XRP community, historically one of the most vocal and coordinated retail bases in crypto, publicly turns on a Ripple event, it registers in social volume metrics that can suppress short-term buying pressure and amplify sell-side momentum.
Discover: The Best Token Presales
The post Ripple Swell 2026 Sparks Holder Backlash Over RLUSD Priority appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets adjusted to geopolitical and macro changes.
Key points:
- Bitcoin takes a time-out near week-to-date lows after a broadly hawkish Fed interest-rate meeting.
- US-Iran tensions slowly resurface with the Strait of Hormuz oil route in the firing line.
- A trader suggests that a “black swan” event could still come in this Bitcoin bear market.
BTC price lack upside momentum after hawkish Fed cues
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD locked in a tight trading range on low time frames after dropping to eight-day lows.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Weakness had entered after the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, which sparked a broader risk-asset comedown.
Wednesday’s meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was the first for new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who avoided giving traders dovish signals on future policy.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said in a statement after a unanimous board decision to keep rates at current levels.
“The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Warsh’s tone was unusual, as expectations had seen him being accommodating to US President Donald Trump’s insistence on rate cuts. He also cut the FOMC statement length considerably, using drier language than former chair, Jerome Powell.
“We will have far less information going forward,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted in a post on X, noting that Warsh had also “dropped” its forward guidance.
“He even hinted that the ‘dot plot’ could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences. In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.”
Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a near 40% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July.
Bitcoin “black swan” back on the radar
With US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto were alone in digesting the latest developments in the US-Iran war.
Related: Bitcoin tipped for Q3 ‘macro bottom’ near $50K as major liquidity grab looms
Despite signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU), the two sides appeared far from aligned on the future road map, with Iran once more eyeing the newly reopened Strait of Hormuz oil route.
Citing Bloomberg, Kobeissi reported that traffic “cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission.”
“The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term,” it explained on Friday.
“It appears Iran is preparing for long-term control of Hormuz.”
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
WTI crude oil continued to circle $75 per barrel on the day after hitting its lowest levels since early March.
Amid the lull in risk-asset volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital hinted that Bitcoin bulls’ true test is yet to come.
“There tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets. Lesson there,” he told X followers.
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