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Novo Nordisk faces defining year in the obesity drug market

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Novo Nordisk faces defining year in the obesity drug market

Maziar Mike Doustdar, CEO of Novo Nordisk, speaks in the Oval Office during an event about weight-loss drugs at the White House in Washington, DC on November 6, 2025.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

Novo Nordisk entered 2026 with the momentum of a historic year in more ways than one – but recent weeks have delivered more drama than most companies might expect over a decade.

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The Danish drugmaker kicked off the year with the explosive launch of the first-ever GLP-1 pill for obesity. Its recent challenges have centered around protecting its market share in the blockbuster weight loss drug market, all while its stock price swings wildly.

This week, Novo sued upstart telehealth provider Hims & Hers for alleged patent infringement and received its own warning from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for what the agency says is misleading claims in advertising. That all followed a 2026 outlook that disappointed investors and stood in stark contrast to its chief rival, Eli Lilly

While Lilly guided to 2026 sales growth of 25%, Novo forecast that sales and profits could decline as much as 13% this year

“Enough has occurred in the past week to occupy a few volumes,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Papadakis on Tuesday, as he — like many of his Wall Street peers — lowered his price target on the stock following the gloomy outlook.

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The rapid news flow has given investors whiplash. So far in February, U.S.-listed Novo shares have traded across a spread ranging from $43.24 to $64.16, shedding as much as 14% in a single day only to gain 10% back in a later session. 

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Novo Nordisk U.S.-listed shares over the last month.

The latest developments add to a thorny situation for Novo as it risks being edged out by Lilly and the growing number of people taking cheaper compounded versions of semaglutide, which are unapproved copycats of Novo’s Wegovy jab.

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CEO Mike Doustdar, who took the reins in August after the former CEO was ousted over misjudging the U.S. market and challenges there, has a plan to steer the company through what’s been described as a “show me” year. 

His agenda is extensive: cracking down on those compounded knock-offs, sustaining strong demand for its newly launched obesity pill, building prescription volumes in the U.S. and bringing new, next-generation obesity and diabetes treatments to market.  

In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Doustdar acknowledged the challenges ahead but said 2026 “is also a year of growth in many ways.” 

“We will have more patients this year than ever before, we will produce more than last year and years before that,” he said. 

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Novo Nordisk CEO on Medicare coverage, new obesity pill, U.S. pricing pressure

Doustdar said around 246,000 patients are currently on the company’s Wegovy pill, which launched at the beginning of January and is already outpacing the early rollouts of existing GLP-1 injections.

“This, of course, tells me that while the investors are feeling a bit of a headwind on the pricing side and the whole business as you’re alluding to, they are hopefully getting convinced that over a period of time that would wash out and that growth will come,” Doustdar said. 

The compounding issue

Novo has repeatedly cited compounding pharmacies as a key reason for its slowing sales growth. The company estimates 1.5 million Americans are currently taking the copycat weight loss drugs offered by Hims & Hers, as well as some wellness clinics and compounding pharmacies. 

Telehealth firms like Hims have profited massively from selling so-called compounded versions of injectable semaglutide under a regulatory loophole that allows other companies to sell copycats of the drugs if the branded medicines are in short supply. While branded semaglutide injections are no longer in short supply after a notable demand spike, the companies have continued to mass market cheaper versions directly to consumers, raising legal questions. 

“We understand why compounding, mass compounding, got started. It was on the back of a shortage. We really don’t understand why it continued,” Doustdar told CNBC on Wednesday, noting that Novo’s opposition has nothing to do with medically necessary compounding for individual cases. 

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Hims last week announced plans to sell a compounded version of Novo’s newly launched Wegovy pill for roughly $100 less than Novo sells the branded version for, though it quickly backed down after Novo said it would sue over patent infringement and the FDA announced a broader crackdown on compounding. The agency also said it had referred Hims to the Department of Justice over potential violations. 

The Hers website arranged on a laptop in New York, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025.

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Novo moved to sue Hims on Monday over compounded versions of both injectable and oral semaglutide, adding to more than 130 lawsuits the drugmaker has filed against pharmacies, wellness clinics and other firms unlawfully marketing those copycats. 

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“The news last Thursday about the pill… was seen as kind of the last straw for many people,” Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Simon Baker told CNBC. 

From the point of view of U.S. regulators, removing cheaper drugs from the market at a time when the Trump administration has made lower drug prices for Americans a priority might not have been an easy sell, Baker said. 

But, “when we got the move on the pill, there was a realization that this has just gone a little bit too far,” he added. “You can’t have people launching knock-off versions of pills five weeks after the brand gets launched.”

“That would destroy the industry.”

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If Novo can get the compounding issue under control, the company can potentially win back some market share and turn things around for sales projections, said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman. 

Doustdar called it “a very strong signal” that the government acknowledged the compounding fight with Hims and “articulated that very publicly. We welcome that.” 

Of course, a government crackdown on compounding wouldn’t clear the way for Novo alone. 

Lilly’s obesity drug Zepbound already enjoys significant market share, and the company is preparing to launch its own oral version. 

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The market share race

A combination image shows an injection pen of Zepbound, Eli Lilly’s weight loss drug, and boxes of Wegovy, made by Novo Nordisk.

Hollie Adams | Reuters

The battle for U.S. market share could amount to a must-win for Novo — the weight loss segment accounted for more than half of its sales in 2025.

Lilly is estimated to have around 60% of the branded GLP-1 market globally, while Novo has about 39%. Novo has also highlighted a gap in the “preference share” for Wegovy versus Lilly’s injections. 

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Lilly’s obesity drug Zepbound has shown more pronounced weight loss than Wegovy and has become the preferred medicine among patients and prescribers, despite launching years after Novo’s drugs. 

In the U.S., Novo estimates that between 7 and 8 patients out of 10 go to Lilly.

Meanwhile, in the compounding market, the share of copycats for Novo’s drug far outweighs that of Lilly’s.

“It’s a curious question as to why in the branded market, Lilly has a much bigger share than Novo but in the compounded market, there’s a lot more of Novo’s molecule than there’s of Lilly’s,” Baker noted. “We don’t know the answer.”

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Novo is banking on the Wegovy pill to help with its eroding market share and says it’s already reaching entirely new patients. Doustdar has said that 88% of people on the pill are taking the lowest starter dose of the drug, signaling that many patients have been waiting on oral options. 

Lilly is expected to launch its rival weight loss pill, orforglipron, in the second quarter of 2026. Investors are closely watching how that will pan out, especially as Novo has lost its first-mover advantage before. 

“They’re putting a lot of muscle behind the marketing of [Wegovy pill], including now a reinvigorated direct-to-consumer channel, which they were a little bit late to arrive at,” TD Cowen analyst Michael Nedelcovych told CNBC. “That seems to be paying dividends.”

Still life of the new Wegovy semaglutide tablets on a white background. Its a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and .and physical activity.

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Michael Siluk | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Doustdar touted the pill’s efficacy, which is on par with the Wegovy injection and superior to Lilly’s oral drug based on separate clinical trials. The Wegovy pill showed around 16.6% weight loss on average compared to roughly 12.4% on average with Lilly’s oral drug. 

“If you use these two numbers, basically you have a 40% difference between the efficacy of these pills,” he said. “I think this is going to be a very main, main selling point of the pill.”

When Lilly eventually launches orforglipron, its primary marketing point will likely be aimed at convincing customers that the Wegovy pill is inconvenient because of certain food restrictions. That makes Novo’s head start extra important as it offers them a chance to lay the groundwork and convince people of the contrary.

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Novo contends that those dietary requirements won’t hinder uptake. But Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger told CNBC last week that it could help Lilly’s pill eventually generate greater sales globally.

Still, while sales of both companies’ drugs may soar, prices are coming down across the board.

U.S. pricing headwinds

The GLP-1 market is facing broad price erosion following landmark “most favored nation” deals between companies and the Trump administration. It’s unclear how much of the price decline can be offset by volume increases.

“No matter how well we do initially to catch up with the price decrease … of course mathematically, [it] takes a bit of time,” Doustdar said, adding the company is “very hopeful” and “working day and night to accelerate those volume uptakes.” 

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Analysts largely believe Novo is being intentionally cautious with its sales projections, baking in the expected pricing pressures. 

“There are a number of pushes and pulls in 2026, some have quite high visibility, some have lower visibility… I think Novo have added in the things of high visibility more than the things of low visibility,” said Baker.

Where there’s higher visibility is where pricing is coming down, generics in Canada and a few other markets, and restrictions on Medicaid for some of their drugs, Baker said: “They’ve got these negatives in quite fully.”

“Given the problems they had last year, they don’t want to overpromise and underdeliver,” he said. 

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Novo’s guidance likely doesn’t include any reduction in the volume of compounded drugs on the market, as the FDA’s announcement of its “decisive steps” to restrict GLP-1 compounding came after the guidance was released. 

But the price sensitivity of consumers for weight loss drugs remains a big unknown, which makes greater volumes and more access points important. 

Novo is anticipating Medicare coverage for weight loss treatments, expected to begin later this year, to open up a 15 million-patient opportunity, Doustdar told CNBC. 

Around 67 million Americans are covered by Medicare, but “when you take a look at specifically our products and the target group, I think around 15 million people would be a good number to target,” Doustdar said. Though he said Medicare access to obesity treatments will open up gradually. 

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Next-generation treatments

Flags with the logo of Novo Nordisk flutter next to the company’s factory in Hillerod on Nov. 12, 2025.

Sergei Gapon | AFP | Getty Images

Novo is also pinning its hopes on other drugs in its pipeline to help it claw back market share. That includes a higher dose – 7.2 milligrams – of Wegovy, which is waiting for FDA approval and could make the drug a stronger competitor to Zepbound. 

Doustdar said that higher dose helps patients lose around 21% of their weight, which is “very much on par” with the highest dose of Zepbound. Wegovy, under its approved doses, has shown around 15% weight loss on average in clinical trials. 

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“When that comes to the market, my thought, my wish, my hope is that people will realize, OK, now we have two products with similar efficacy,” Doustdar said. 

He added that “hopefully will also change the dynamic as we go forward,” referring to the market’s increasing preference for Zepbound.

BMO’s Seigerman said it’s difficult to say whether that will be the case, as Zepbound is already entrenched as the best product in the injectable market.  

Later this year, Novo expects its next-generation treatment called CagriSema to enter the market. That experimental weekly injection combines semaglutide with cagrilintide, which mimics another gut hormone called amylin. 

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Novo Nordisk has defended CagriSema’s trial results, which disappointed investors, coming in under the expected 25% weight loss on average. 

On Wednesday, Doustdar said the company was “penalized quite harshly by the stock market” for those results, which showed around 23% weight loss. But he said the drug would be “one of the best products out there” if it were available today. 

To assess the real efficacy of the drug, “you need to look at all the data together,” he added, pointing to three upcoming phase three trials for the drug, including one study that pits CagriSema against Zepbound. 

When asked whether Novo needs to further diversify away from obesity like competitors, Doustdar argued that the company doesn’t see obesity or diabetes as a single, monolithic disease and sees more opportunity in developing multiple, specialized therapies within the category.

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While the world labels millions of patients simply as “obese,” he said the underlying biology and severity of the condition vary widely – from someone who needs to lose a modest amount of weight to someone with severe complications like fatty liver disease requiring a transplant. 

And as the market matures, Novo’s sales are still growing year-on-year on a constant currency basis, albeit at a slower pace than before. Only time will tell when, or if, that will change.

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Northern Star Resources does not expect to produce from its Hemi deposit in the Pilbara until the early 2030s, as approvals drag on for the lucrative gold project.

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PM Inaugurates Thailand’s Chinese New Year Festival 2026

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PM Inaugurates Thailand's Chinese New Year Festival 2026

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul launched the Thailand Chinese New Year Festival 2026, marking 51 years of Thai-Chinese relations. Celebrations include events in Bangkok and other provinces, promoting tourism nationwide.


Key Points

  • Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul launched the Thailand Chinese New Year Festival 2026 at Government House, celebrating 51 years of Thailand-China diplomatic relations. The event marked the beginning of nationwide festivities, featuring notable attendees like the Chinese ambassador and tourism officials.
  • A lion dance performance highlighted the occasion, alongside the presentation of an auspicious ceremonial horse to the prime minister. The Tourism Authority of Thailand, in partnership with various agencies, will organize the festival across key locations.
  • Festive lighting in Bangkok, themed “Ride the Fortune, Share the Future,” will adorn Yaowarat Road from February 7 to March 1, with major activities at Siam Paragon from February 14 to 18. Additional celebrations are planned in Hat Yai and provinces like Nakhon Sawan and Suphan Buri, aiming to boost holiday travel.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has presided over a publicity event for the Thailand Chinese New Year Festival 2026 at Government House to commemorate the 51st anniversary of diplomatic relations between Thailand and China. The event, held at Command Building 1, signaled the start of nationwide celebrations.

The event was attended by the Chinese ambassador to Thailand, the minister of tourism and sports, the governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, and senior officials from relevant agencies. A lion dance performance was presented to promote the upcoming festival, and an auspicious ceremonial horse was offered to the prime minister as part of the occasion.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand, in coordination with partner agencies, will stage Thailand Chinese New Year Festival 2026 events at major locations. In Bangkok, festive lighting under the theme Ride the Fortune, Share the Future will illuminate Yaowarat Road from February 7 to March 1, while main festival activities are scheduled at Siam Paragon from February 14 to 18. Additional celebrations will take place in Hat Yai, Songkhla Province, from February 17 to 20.

Chinese New Year events are also being supported in provinces known for long-established traditions, including Nakhon Sawan and Suphan Buri, as well as other activities organized nationwide by government and private partners. Officials said the celebrations are expected to encourage travel during the holiday period, with more information available through the national tourism hotline and official festival platforms.

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Secretive AI chip start-up Olix raises $220m and plans to expand Bristol presence

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The tech company was founded less than two years ago by then-23-year-old entrepreneur James Dacombe

An aerial view of Bristol city centre

An aerial view of Bristol city centre (Image: Getty Images)

A UK AI chip start-up has raised $220m in a Series A funding round and is planning to expand its presence in Bristol, it has confirmed. London-based Olix was founded by 25-year-old James Dacombe in 2024 and is targeting the development of technology that it claims will be faster and cheaper than Nvidia’s.

The company was valued at £1bn following the raise, with Hummingbird Ventures – a backer of Revolut and Deliveroo – leading the round. Other investors include Plural, Vertex Ventures, LocalGlobe, Entrepreneurs First, Fundomo and Transition.

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The round brings total capital raised by Olix – formerly known as Flux Computing – to $250m.

Jonathan Heiliger, general partner at investor Vertex Ventures, and former Facebook infrastructure executive, said: “One of the biggest constraints in AI today is the compute required to run these models at scale.

“Today’s GPU-based approach forces a compromise between speed and cost. Olix is taking a radically different approach designed to deliver a step change in both and it has huge promise.”

Mr Dacombe dropped out of school at age 16 to work as a software engineer at a start-up and then left that to build his brain healthcare company CoMind. In 2022, he secured a $200,000 grant from the Thiel Foundation – a two-year programme established by technology entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel for young people who want to build new things.

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Mr Dacombe launched his semiconductor business Olix in March 2024. That same year he was named by the Sunday Times as one of the most inspiring people under the age of 30 in the UK.

Following the latest funding round, Olix is currently hiring for a number of roles – in the US, Canada, London and Bristol. According to a statement on its website, Olix is “an in-person” company and claims to employ “some of the best minds” in photonics, systems, and compute.

“It is difficult to overstate the impact a step change will have, not just for AI, but for society as a whole,” a statement on its website reads.

“Life at Olix is high-velocity and high-stakes. We don’t believe in ‘grinding’ for the sake of it, but we do believe in dedication to the mission.

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“This isn’t work you leave at the door; it’s work that matters enough to command a space in your life. You’ll be making a tangible impact alongside people just as excited as you are.”

The company is offering visa sponsorship, including for dependents and a £24,000 annual top-up for living near the office. The Bristol role advertised on the site is for a senior/staff digital design engineer, with a pay packet of between £125,000-£180,000.

The announcement comes just a day after UK chip start-up Fractile confirmed it would invest £100m in its UK operations, in London and Bristol, and the government urged British tech entrepreneurs to “take bold risks” with the development of AI.

“By investing in British tech innovation, just as Fractile is doing today, we can reinforce our leadership in AI and boost our influence on the global stage,” the AI minister said on Tuesday.

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Heineken said Wednesday it plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally and expects slower profit growth in 2026 as the beer industry grapples with weak demand.

The reductions represent nearly 7% of the Dutch company’s approximately 87,000 employees worldwide. The beer giant said the cuts are part of a broader strategy aimed at strenghtening its operations while continuing to invest in growth.

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“To fuel the growth and the profit, we are stepping up productivity initiatives and [making] changes to our operating model,” Heineken Chief Financial Officer Harold van den Broek told investors on a call announcing the company’s annual earnings results. “We are moving to a simpler, leaner Heineken centered on empowered operating companies.”

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Heineken announced Wednesday its intent to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters / Reuters)

Van den Broek said between 5,000 and 6,000 roles will be eliminated over the next two years.

“Timelines will vary by market, and we will support impacted colleagues with care, respect and appropriate assistance,” van den Broek said. 

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“These actions are designed to deliver 400 million [euros] to 500 million [euros] of annual gross savings and allow us to continue investing in our brands and capabilities while supporting healthy operating profit growth.”

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“These actions are designed to deliver 400 million [euros] to 500 million [euros] of annual gross savings,” Chief Financial Officer Harold van den Broek told investors. (Freek van den Bergh/ANP/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Some of the job cuts will be concentrated in Europe and non-priority markets, as well as at the company’s headquarters and within its supply network, Reuters reported.

Heineken expects profit growth this year of 2% to 6%, down from the 4% to 8% range it projected for 2025. Rival Carlsberg last week issued a similar forecast, according to Reuters.

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The beer industry has been grappling with slowing sales amid tight household budgets, increased competition from alternative beverages, and growing health warnings related to alcohol consumption.

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Beer in a distribution hall at Heineken brewery

The cuts come amid Heineken’s hunt for a new CEO. (Piroschka van de Wouw/Reuters / Reuters)

The cuts also come as Heineken searches for a new chief executive after Dolf van den Brink unexpectedly resigned last month. 

Van den Brink is set to step down in May. 

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Heineken did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

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The activist sportswear brand XX-XY Athletics saw a year-old ad explode in viewership over Super Bowl weekend, leading to sales tripling compared to a normal weekend for the brand. 

The “real girls rock” ad, which premiered in February 2025, was the brand’s second full-length commercial, and initially garnered traction when it was shared on social media by “Harry Potter” author and women’s rights activist, J.K. Rowling. 

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XX-XY Athletics Instagram advertisement (XX-XY Athletics on Instagram)

But then, this past weekend, founder Jennifer Sey and the company decided to recirculate the ad, and it went viral again, increasing its total combined views on X to more than 40 million, and was among the highest-trending topics on X for Super Bowl Sunday. 

Sey, a former marketing executive for Levi’s and U.S. champion women’s gymnast, credited Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, for being one of the figures to help re-circulate the ad during its viral resurgence.

“That was a big difference-maker,” Sey told FOX Business of Cruz. “He made a huge difference… and we could see it differently, even in terms of traffic to our website.” 

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The ad itself portrays the brand’s ambassadors, who have stood up for women’s sports, facing vulgar hate comments and witnessing liberal media outlets berate them as “transphobic.” It featured appearances by OuKick host Riley Gaines and former University of Nevada volleyball player Sia Liilii.

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Sia Liilii appears in the XX-XY Athletics “Real Girls Rock” advertisement. (Courtesy of XX-XY Athletics / FOXBusiness)

“It’s the proudest one I’ve ever made in my life,” Sey said. “I’ve made a lot of ads in my life, I was the chief marketing officer at Levi’s for eight years, I’ve made Super Bowl ads… but for sure, this one I’m most proud of. I think the message is just so deeply resonate and I think it really moves people to stand up for this cause.” 

Despite the company’s rapid growth since it launched in 2024, Sey said she doesn’t aspire to ever run one of her ads during the Super Bowl, insisting that the prestige of getting that time slot has waned. 

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“I think that the Super Bowl ads having prestige is sort of a thing of the past,” Sey said. “I don’t think anybody cares anymore, I think people leave the room and get food, I don’t think people tune in for the ads anymore. And from a business perspective, I don’t know how you generate a positive return when it costs $10 million just to secure the medium.”

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Sey criticized the quality of this year’s crop of Super Bowl ads in particular. 

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“They were just relying on jamming as many celebrities into the ad as they could,” Sey said. “That doesn’t really work.” 

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