“The irony is that a Prime Minister more sympathetic to Northern Ireland’s funding arguments could ultimately prove more demanding of its politicians.”
Andy Burnham has not yet walked through the door of Downing Street, but Northern Ireland’s political parties are already facing questions they have spent years avoiding.
This morning’s resignation of Keir Starmer potentially signals the arrival of a very different understanding of how the United Kingdom should be governed.
Starmer’s approach to devolution was largely cautious. Whatever frustrations existed between Belfast and London, the broad framework remained familiar as the Treasury demanded financial discipline and Stormont demanded additional funding as the arguments repeated themselves with remarkable consistency.
Burnham appears to view the relationship differently. Throughout his political career, he has argued that the UK’s problems stem from an overly centralised state that systematically favours London and the South East of England. He has frequently drawn comparisons between the economic challenges facing Northern Ireland and those facing the North of England. In his view, both are symptoms of a system that concentrates power and investment in one part of the country while expecting the rest of the country to manage the consequences.
That analysis will be welcomed by many at Stormont. For years, ministers from every major party have argued that Northern Ireland is being asked to deliver public services with insufficient resources. The Executive continues to insist there is a structural gap between what it receives and what it needs to spend, and a Prime Minister who is instinctively sympathetic to those arguments would represent a significant shift.
Yet there is a danger in assuming Burnham would simply be a more generous version of Starmer. His criticism of Westminster has never been based on the belief that local government should be free from responsibility. Quite the opposite. Burnham’s political philosophy is built around devolving both power and accountability.
In that regard, it is worth noting that Stormont’s current disputes revolve around the second of those principles rather than the first.
The Executive has spent years arguing against measures such as water charges while simultaneously arguing that public services are underfunded. Ministers have insisted that Northern Ireland deserves greater flexibility while often showing little appetite for using the powers they already possess. The result has been a political culture in which difficult decisions are routinely deferred while responsibility is directed elsewhere, and a Burnham government may have little patience for that model.
The irony is that a Prime Minister more sympathetic to Northern Ireland’s funding arguments could ultimately prove more demanding of its politicians. Additional investment may come with a greater expectation that Stormont demonstrates a willingness to reform itself.
One of the striking developments of recent months has been the growing willingness among parties outside unionism to revisit elements of the Good Friday Agreement’s operating arrangements. Sinn Féin, Alliance, and the SDLP have all argued, in different ways, that the current structures leave the institutions vulnerable to paralysis. Those arguments have generally been treated with caution in London.
Andy Burnham may view the question differently. His political language is filled with references to collaboration, problem-solving and reducing institutional blockages. If Stormont continues to drift from crisis to crisis, he may be considerably more open than his predecessors to proposals that reduce the ability of individual parties to bring the institutions to a halt, which will concern many unionists, not because constitutional change is imminent, but because it would represent a subtle shift in how Westminster understands Northern Ireland.
For much of the post-Agreement era, preserving the existing balance has been viewed as an objective in itself. Burnham may be more inclined to ask whether the structures are actually delivering effective government.
Perhaps the most intriguing question concerns electoral politics. For decades, Labour’s refusal to stand candidates in Northern Ireland has left a significant section of voters without a direct route to support the party that governs the United Kingdom, and Andy Burnham has long appeared uncomfortable with that arrangement.
If he were to move towards allowing Labour candidates to stand here, the consequences could be profound. The immediate focus would naturally fall on the SDLP, which would face direct competition for centre-left voters. But the longer-term significance may lie elsewhere.
We have spent years discussing the growth of the “other” designation in Northern Ireland and demographic change has attracted enormous attention. Political change perhaps deserves just as much.
A Labour Party operating on traditional economic and social issues would offer something that has largely been absent from local politics, with a major electoral force capable of competing without placing the constitutional question at the centre of every contest.
Whether such a project would succeed is another matter entirely. Northern Ireland has a long history of confounding predictions imported from elsewhere. But that uncertainty points towards the larger significance of a Burnham premiership.
It is worth noting that former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood’s partner, Louise Haigh, is likely to take a prominent position in a Burnham government, and may hold sway over Burnham’s decision to stand candidates in Northern Ireland.
Perhaps the biggest impact for Northern Ireland may be the challenge Andy Burnham’s politics presents to assumptions that have become deeply embedded within Northern Ireland’s political culture. For years, Stormont’s arguments with Westminster have largely been conducted with calls for more money, more powers and more flexibility. Burnham’s arrival could alter the conversation.
If this plays out, it will be worth watching to see what Stormont is prepared to do with greater autonomy if it receives it.
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