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Saylor Reacts to MSTR Bear Market

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MSTR CMF

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains locked in a persistent bear market. The Michael Saylor-led company has struggled to regain momentum as its stock mirrors Bitcoin’s decline.

As Bitcoin corrects, Strategy stock follows, reinforcing volatility and heightening sensitivity to digital asset sentiment shifts.

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MSTR Is Breaking Out

About a week ago, the Chaikin Money Flow formed a bullish divergence against price. While MSTR recorded a lower low, CMF posted a higher reading. This divergence signaled improving capital inflows despite falling prices, suggesting selective accumulation beneath the surface.

The short-term impact was visible as the MSTR price rebounded roughly 20% across Friday and Monday trading sessions. However, the broader technical structure remains fragile. Macro indicators still lean bearish, and sustained upside depends on stronger conviction returning to Bitcoin markets.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

MSTR CMF
MSTR CMF. Source: TradingView

Can The Oversold Stock Mirror 2022 Recovery?

The Relative Strength Index has hovered near oversold territory since November 2025. A brief improvement appeared in January before RSI fell below 30.0 again last week. An RSI below 30 often signals oversold conditions, which historically precede technical rebounds.

A similar setup occurred in May 2022. At that time, MSTR rebounded 123% after entering oversold territory. That rally unfolded despite Bitcoin experiencing uneven momentum. Investors treated Strategy as a distinct equity with its own growth narrative.

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MSTR RSI
MSTR RSI. Source: TradingView

This cycle differs materially. Strategy’s corporate identity is now deeply connected to its Bitcoin holdings strategy. Demand for MSTR shares increasingly reflects sentiment toward Bitcoin accumulation.

MSTR Follows Bitcoin

In prior downturns, the MSTR price occasionally moved independently of Bitcoin. During earlier oversold phases, the stock rallied even as Bitcoin corrected. That divergence highlighted investor confidence in Strategy’s enterprise software operations and balance sheet flexibility.

Today, correlation metrics show stronger alignment between MSTR and Bitcoin price action. Since November 2025, Bitcoin’s steady decline has exerted downward pressure on Strategy shares. Market participants increasingly treat the stock as a Bitcoin-linked instrument rather than a standalone tech equity.

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MSTR vs BTC Price
MSTR vs BTC Price. Source: TradingView

As a result, Strategy’s outlook now depends heavily on Bitcoin’s next move. If Bitcoin stabilizes or enters accumulation, MSTR may follow. Conversely, extended crypto weakness could prolong the bear phase in Strategy stock despite internal accumulation policies.

Saylor Remains Bullish

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, is unbothered by the decline in MSTR’s value. During an interview with CNBC, Saylor highlighted that the company is far from affected by BTC’s decline. He stated that volatility is the bug, but volatility is also the feature. He further strengthened the company’s outlook of accumulation over selling.

“We will not be selling. Instead, I believe we will be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever,” Saylor stated.

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Thus, Strategy will likely continue buying BTC, and MSTR will continue following its trajectory until the market changes drastically for one of them.

MSTR Price Targets Identified

MSTR price trades near $133, hovering around the $137 region aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This technical zone acts as a critical inflection point. Future direction will likely depend on Bitcoin price stability and broader crypto market sentiment.

If bearish conditions persist, recent gains could fade quickly. A drop below $122, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, may expose $104, the February low. Should selling intensify further, the next structural support lies near $83.

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MSTR Price Analysis.
MSTR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

On the upside, the immediate recovery target sits near $157. Reclaiming that level would offset recent losses and improve technical structure. If Saylor maintains Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation stance, sustained commitment could attract renewed investor interest and support a stronger rebound in MSTR shares.

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Crypto World

$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

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$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

Key takeaways:

  • A Hyperliquid whale placed an $80 million bet against Bitcoin and the S&P 500 while going long on Brent crude oil prices.

  • The whale’s history of massive losses and inconsistent signals suggests the trade could fall on the wrong side of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on Wednesday, bouncing back from Tuesday’s $66,000 low after President Donald Trump teased a potential ceasefire in the US and Israel-Iran war. Even with Bitcoin trading above $68,000, one whale used Hyperliquid DEX to place an $80 million bet on a market collapse. 

Traders are now watching closely to see if this whale’s massive position signals a looming Bitcoin price drop.

Hyperliquid whale 0x94d373…c933814 position. Source: CoinGlass

The Hyperliquid whale, linked to address 0x94d373…c933814, carefully built this nearly $80 million leveraged position between Tuesday and Wednesday. The trade includes a $40 million short (sell) on Bitcoin futures near $68,760, a $2 million short on synthetic S&P 500 Index contracts, and a $37 million long (buy) in synthetic Brent oil contracts.

Crude Brent oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The whale’s aggregate position leverage stood at 7 times, indicating high conviction. The Bitcoin futures liquidation price was $80,083, while the Brent oil position would be forcefully terminated above $93. The timing of the trade is curious as S&P 500 Index futures gained 4% between Tuesday and Wednesday as traders anticipate the US and Israel-Iran war dissipating over the next few weeks.

On Wednesday, President Trump said “Iran’s New Regime President” is considering a “ceasefire,” although the conditions to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain unknown. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty. Thus, one could assume that the Hyperliquid whale is counter-trading the market’s optimistic take, betting that Brent crude oil prices will jump while Bitcoin loses its value.

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This Hyperliquid whale previously lost $40 million

This address belongs to a particularly unlucky whale, or at least one who has been extremely unsuccessful since late January. The Hyperliquid whale apparently uses bots for execution, given the sheer number of small trades that build into huge positions, but it still managed to lose $37 million in its first month of activity in December 2025.

The same user was flagged by X user ‘lookonchain’ on Feb. 5 after taking a massive loss on leveraged bullish bets on Ether (ETH), Bitcoin, Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP). 

Source: X/lookonchain

According to the analysis, the whale had previously made $25 million in profits from shorts in multiple cryptocurrencies, but decided to flip the position on Feb. 4, resulting in a $40 million loss. There is no way to know exactly what triggered this entity to place those bets, but the event proves that even whales can misinterpret the market.

Related: Warren Buffett bought $17B in US T-bills: A bad omen for Bitcoin price?

The erratic signals from President Trump regarding a potential full-on invasion and the war in Iran leave room for opposing views. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied there were talks for a ceasefire but confirmed to Al Jazeera on Tuesday that there was an intention to end the war, according to CNBC.

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Given the history of this whale’s market positioning and its track record of losing trades, it’s possible that the current $80 million bet may fall on the wrong side of the market.