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Politics And The Markets 06/30/26

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This is the forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha. A new version is published every market day.

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The comments below are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site, and this is an ‘enter at your own risk’ area as discussion can get very heated. If you can’t stand the heat… you know what they say…

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Court rules over legal costs in Hancock, Wright, Rhodes dispute

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Court rules over legal costs in Hancock, Wright, Rhodes dispute

The state’s Supreme Court has handed down a decision on the legal costs to be paid by the mining billionaires involved in the high-profile iron ore trial.

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SpaceX Stock Edges Higher Today as Investors Brace for Historic Nasdaq-100 Entry Just 15 Days After IPO

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Elon Musk looks at his mobile phone

Shares of SpaceX ticked higher Monday morning, continuing a tentative recovery from a sharp post-IPO pullback as investors looked ahead to the company’s historically fast inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, a milestone set to arrive just weeks after the company’s record-setting public debut.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., trading under the ticker SPCX, were at $155.03 as of 11:14 a.m. EDT, up $1.80, or 1.17%, on the day. The modest gain builds on a stabilization in trading after a turbulent stretch that saw the stock fall nearly 19% over the prior week, sliding from its all-time high of $225.64, reached June 16, down to an all-time low of $147.11 on June 23. The stock’s overall market capitalization, which stood at roughly $2.02 trillion as of late last week, had contracted by more than 16% over that same period.

SpaceX went public June 12 in what has been described as a record initial public offering, raising an estimated $75 billion. Shares were priced at $135 ahead of the listing and opened trading at $150, closing the first day at $160.95, a 19.2% gain from the offering price. The stock then continued climbing for several more sessions before peaking on June 16 and reversing sharply in the days that followed, a round trip that has made SpaceX one of the more closely watched, and most volatile, new entries on Wall Street this year.

The next major milestone for the stock is now just over a week away. Nasdaq announced on June 26 that SpaceX will join the Nasdaq-100 index beginning July 7, just 15 days after its public debut, an unusually fast turnaround driven by a rule change Nasdaq implemented in May. Under the previous framework, newly public companies typically waited months or longer before becoming eligible for index inclusion. The revised rules shortened that waiting period to just 15 days from a company’s IPO date, provided the company ranks among the top 40 Nasdaq-100 constituents by market capitalization, a threshold SpaceX cleared easily given its enormous valuation. The inclusion is expected to trigger a wave of mechanical buying from index funds and exchange-traded products that track the Nasdaq-100, including the widely held QQQ fund, with some estimates suggesting the forced purchasing could total several billion dollars within the index’s first weeks of holding the stock.

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That looming demand has factored into recent trading even before the formal inclusion date arrives. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest exchange-traded funds added to their SpaceX position in trades disclosed for the session ending June 26, joining a broader group of institutional investors who have used the stock’s pullback from its post-IPO peak as an entry opportunity. At the same time, Quantum Cyber, a smaller defense-technology-focused company, has been reported to be pursuing an equity stake in SpaceX, going so far as to hire bankers to explore the transaction, according to TradingView-sourced reporting.

Beyond the index dynamics, several business developments have kept SpaceX in the headlines in recent days. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX and Charter Communications have held discussions about a potential mobile phone partnership in the United States, part of SpaceX’s broader push to expand Starlink’s reach beyond satellite broadband into direct wireless services. That ambition has not gone unnoticed by traditional telecom analysts; TD Cowen has flagged that SpaceX’s expansion into wireless could remain a persistent overhang on legacy carrier stocks, even as the firm has also suggested the development could fuel further upside for SpaceX shares themselves if Starlink succeeds in challenging established mobile providers. Separately, SpaceX was among the winning bidders, alongside Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, in a recent Federal Communications Commission spectrum auction, and Reuters has reported that the company is constructing a natural gas pipeline intended to support fuel needs for future Starship rocket launches.

SpaceX’s business now spans considerably more than rockets and satellites. According to Morningstar, the company acquired xAI from its founder, Elon Musk, in early 2026, bringing the Grok large language AI model, the Colossus data center and related AI infrastructure under the SpaceX corporate umbrella alongside its existing Space and Connectivity segments. Morningstar analysts have noted that while SpaceX maintains a commanding, decade-long lead over competitors in orbital launch experience and payload volume, the company’s valuation implies that investors will need to wait years for earnings to catch up to its current trading multiples.

That valuation tension is reflected clearly in the spread of opinions among the relatively small group of analysts currently covering the stock. Among those tracked by Investing.com, six analysts recommend buying shares while one recommends selling, producing an overall Buy rating with an average 12-month price target of $187.80, a high estimate of $310 and a low estimate of just $62, implying upside of roughly 22.6% from recent trading levels. Argus, meanwhile, initiated coverage with a more cautious Hold rating, suggesting it could take years before SpaceX’s valuation multiples settle into levels considered typical for an established aerospace or telecommunications company. SpaceX’s first public quarterly earnings report is scheduled for Aug. 6, a date that should meaningfully expand the pool of analysts covering the stock once the underwriting banks’ quiet period concludes.

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For now, SpaceX shares remain in a period of active price discovery less than three weeks after going public, caught between mechanical demand tied to the upcoming Nasdaq-100 inclusion, continued interest from prominent institutional investors, and lingering questions from more cautious analysts about whether the company’s valuation has run ahead of what its current rocket, satellite and AI businesses can support. Monday’s modest gain offers little more than a pause in that broader story, with the company’s formal entry into the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 likely to serve as the next significant test of investor appetite for one of the most closely watched new listings in recent Wall Street history.

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Persistent’s Nagarro deal faces near-term doubts, but long-term story stays strong: Piyush Pandey

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Persistent's Nagarro deal faces near-term doubts, but long-term story stays strong: Piyush Pandey
Despite an 11% sell-off following Persistent Systems‘ acquisition of Nagarro, analysts believe the market may be focusing too heavily on near-term execution risks while overlooking the long-term strategic benefits of the deal.

Persistent Systems’ announcement of its acquisition of Nagarro triggered a sharp correction in its stock price, with shares falling nearly 11% as investors weighed the implications of the company’s largest acquisition to date. While the market reaction reflected concerns around integration, margins and debt, market expert Piyush Pandey from Centrum believes the long-term strategic rationale remains compelling.

Integration Risks Weigh on Investor Sentiment
According to Pandey, the market’s immediate concern stems from the sheer size of the acquisition, which brings a company with nearly $1.1 billion in revenue into Persistent’s fold.”Yes, I would say it is a typically large acquisition. Revenue is close to $1.1 billion for the acquired company, and I would say it can lead to some near-term integration issues. That is something the market is anticipating, and it can impact the margin as well as the growth profile. That is what the market is anticipating, and that led to this steep fall in the stock price today,” he said.

The scale of the integration is expected to create operational challenges in the near term, particularly around maintaining profitability and sustaining growth.
Market Reaction May Be an Overreaction
While acknowledging the execution risks, Pandey believes the sharp decline in the stock price appears excessive when viewed from a medium- to long-term perspective.
“It is sort of an overreaction. If we look at the medium- to long-term perspective, it is very positive because it leads to synergies in terms of verticals. Persistent gets access to verticals like industrials, consumer, and the public sector. It also helps deepen its presence in Europe, where Persistent had very little presence. Plus, it becomes a company with nearly $2.9 billion in revenue, which can help Persistent bid for larger deals. Overall, I would say it is a positive step for the medium to long term, but integration can lead to near-term challenges. For any Tier-II company like Coforge or LTIMindtree, acquisitions are generally undertaken to scale up,” he said.
The acquisition significantly broadens Persistent’s industry exposure while strengthening its European footprint, positioning the company to compete for larger global contracts.

Margin Recovery Looks Achievable
One of the key concerns among investors is whether Nagarro’s margins can eventually move closer to Persistent’s significantly higher profitability levels.

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Pandey believes that although margin expansion will take time, the outlook remains encouraging due to potential cost synergies.

“Yes, I would say there will, of course, be some cost synergies, and margins can improve from the current EBITDA margin of 13.2% to a level closer to Persistent’s. The management believes that because of this scale, certain costs as a percentage of revenue can be optimised. Margin-wise, there are challenges, but I do not see a major concern. Even if the margin settles 100 basis points lower than Persistent’s, it would still be acceptable. If you look at the price Persistent is paying and the value in terms of capabilities and verticals, the deal looks good,” he said.

Growth May Moderate Initially
Pandey expects the integration to be completed only towards the end of the year, suggesting that investors should not expect immediate financial benefits.

“This merger happens only towards the end of this year, and we can expect the combined EBIT margin to be closer to 14-15%. In terms of growth, I still feel they can deliver double-digit growth after the integration. As for interest cost, they are taking debt of close to $1.5 billion, which can be easily serviced through current cash as well as the combined EBITDA generation. Debt is not the concern. Had the company opted for a QIP, it would have led to significant dilution. With the current cash holdings and cash generation from the combined company, debt is not a concern. The real concern is that the growth profile might moderate slightly, and they may take some hit on operating margins,” he said.

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The analyst expects temporary moderation in growth and profitability but believes the financial structure remains manageable.

Debt Not the Primary Worry
Persistent has historically maintained a debt-free balance sheet, making the borrowing required for this acquisition a key talking point among investors.

However, Pandey believes the company’s cash-generating ability should allow it to comfortably service the additional debt.

“Debt is not a concern because IT companies are cash-generating machines. Persistent also has a reasonable amount of cash on its balance sheet. They should be able to service this debt. IT companies generally take debt when they need to expand or acquire other entities. In this case, it is justified. The primary concern remains that Persistent was growing at around 15-16% year-on-year on a constant currency basis, whereas Nagarro has been growing at around 6-7%. Unless there are meaningful revenue synergies, the combined entity’s growth could take a hit. That is what the market is primarily concerned about,” he said.

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Attractive Valuation, But Patience Is Advised
Following the sharp correction, Persistent’s valuation has become considerably more attractive. Even so, Pandey believes investors need not rush into the stock given the broader challenges facing the IT sector.

“The valuation has become very attractive. It is now trading at close to 25 times FY28 EPS. But having said that, the IT sector continues to face demand challenges related to AI, and even the first or second quarter is likely to remain muted. One can adopt a wait-and-watch approach. There is no need to hurry, especially with IT companies,” he said.

AI Opportunity Favors Select Verticals
Discussing the evolving AI landscape, Pandey believes industries such as healthcare, technology and banking remain best positioned to benefit, while manufacturing and utilities may take longer to realise gains.

“Verticals like healthcare, technology and BFSI are better placed compared to manufacturing, energy or utilities. Companies with deeper domain capabilities in these verticals are likely to perform better. Tier-II companies like Coforge and Persistent are slightly better placed compared to the larger players, but things are evolving very rapidly. We should get more clarity over the next one to two quarters on how demand is shaping up for the sector,” he said.

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Execution Will Determine Future Valuation
While the acquisition strengthens Persistent strategically, Pandey cautions that execution will ultimately determine whether investors reward the company.

“If integration takes longer and becomes more complex, Persistent could see valuation multiples derating. The company does not have a strong track record of integrating acquisitions, unlike companies such as Coforge. Given that this acquisition is close to 60% of Persistent’s existing revenue, management needs to remain very focused on cost and revenue synergies. Any delay in achieving those synergies could impact the valuation multiples of the combined company,” he said.

For now, investors appear willing to wait for evidence that Persistent can successfully integrate Nagarro while preserving its growth trajectory. Although short-term volatility may persist, the acquisition has the potential to transform the company’s scale, geographic reach and industry presence if executed effectively.

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Panel approves changes to $27m Mount Hawthorn apartment project

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Panel approves changes to $27m Mount Hawthorn apartment project

A panel has approved changes to an eight-storey social housing development in an inner-city suburb, despite significant community opposition.

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BlackRock Low Duration Bond Fund Q1 2026 Commentary

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Franklin Mutual Quest Fund Q1 2026 Commentary (MQIFX)

Technical price graph and indicator, red and green candlestick chart on blue theme screen, market volatility, up and down trend. Stock trading, crypto currency background.

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• The fund posted returns of 0.14% ((Institutional shares)) and 0.08% ((Investor A shares, without sales charge)) for the first quarter of 2026.

• The fund underperformed its benchmark as duration (interest rate sensitivity) and yield curve positioning

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Opinion: Pitch decks as a business pointer

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Opinion: Pitch decks as a business pointer

OPINION: The way startups pitch using a slide deck can have lessons for general businesses.

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Rex misled market with big talk before $31.7m loss

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Rex misled market with big talk before $31.7m loss

A regional airline has been found to have misled the stock market when it claimed it would deliver a strong financial result months before it posted an eight-figure loss.

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Russell 2000 Slips 0.6% as Small-Cap Stocks Face Rotation Pressure Amid Mixed Economic Signals

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FTSE 100 Surges 0.8% Today as Oil Eases and Markets

NEW YORK — The Russell 2000 Index declined modestly Monday, reflecting selective pressure on small-capitalization stocks as investors navigated mixed economic data and continued rotation within the broader equity market.

The small-cap benchmark fell about 0.6% to around 2,992.12 in morning trading, underperforming larger indexes in a session characterized by cautious sentiment across various sectors.

Small-cap stocks have shown volatility in recent periods as market participants assess the relative attractiveness of smaller companies amid higher interest rates, inflation concerns and shifting growth expectations. The Russell 2000’s performance often serves as a barometer for domestic economic health and risk appetite.

Many small-cap companies derive significant revenue from the U.S. economy, making them sensitive to domestic growth trends, consumer spending and borrowing costs. While some segments benefit from economic resilience, others face margin pressures from elevated expenses.

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Analysts note that small-caps have lagged larger technology names tied to artificial intelligence themes during recent market rallies. This divergence has prompted periodic rotation flows as investors seek value opportunities or reassess risk allocations.

The Federal Reserve’s policy path remains a key influence on small-cap performance. Higher borrowing costs disproportionately affect smaller businesses with greater reliance on debt financing for operations and expansion.

Recent economic indicators have presented a mixed picture, with some data suggesting cooling inflation while others point to persistent labor market strength. This uncertainty contributes to choppy trading in small-cap names sensitive to rate expectations.

Sector composition plays a role in the Russell 2000’s movements. The index includes significant exposure to financials, industrials, healthcare and consumer discretionary companies, each responding differently to macroeconomic developments.

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Financial stocks within the index face dynamics around net interest margins and loan demand, while industrials reflect manufacturing activity and infrastructure spending. Healthcare names navigate regulatory and innovation cycles.

Monday’s decline occurred without a dominant single catalyst, suggesting broad positioning adjustments. Trading volume and breadth indicated measured selling rather than panic across small-cap names.

Smaller companies often offer higher growth potential but carry elevated risks including limited resources, customer concentration and competitive vulnerabilities. These characteristics influence their valuation multiples and volatility profiles.

Value-oriented investors have periodically turned to small-caps when larger growth stocks appear extended. However, sustaining such rotations requires improving fundamentals and clearer monetary policy signals.

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The Russell 2000’s year-to-date performance reflects broader market trends with periods of outperformance during risk-on environments and weakness when caution prevails. Its composition provides exposure to the domestic economy distinct from multinational heavyweights.

Corporate earnings from small-cap companies have shown variability, with some sectors demonstrating resilience while others face cost pressures. Guidance and outlooks from smaller firms are closely watched for signals on economic conditions.

Mergers and acquisitions activity can influence small-cap performance, as larger companies seek innovative or niche players. Private equity interest in certain segments also affects valuations.

Monday’s trading in the broader market showed selective strength in larger technology and communication services names, highlighting the ongoing divergence between market segments. Small-caps may benefit if capital rotates in search of value.

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Economic data releases continue shaping expectations for Federal Reserve decisions. Inflation trends, employment figures and consumer confidence readings all factor into assessments of small business operating environments.

Small-cap companies often lead economic recoveries due to their agility but can suffer disproportionately during downturns. Current conditions suggest a soft landing scenario favored by many economists, though risks remain.

The Russell 2000 serves as a benchmark for active managers and passive funds targeting domestic small companies. Its movements influence portfolio allocations across institutional and retail investors.

Sector-specific developments can drive index volatility. For instance, energy prices affect related small-caps, while regulatory changes impact healthcare and financial names within the benchmark.

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Investor sentiment toward small-caps often improves when interest rate cuts appear likely, reducing borrowing costs and supporting valuations. Current futures pricing reflects expectations for potential easing later in the year.

Monday’s session lacked major small-cap specific news, with the decline appearing driven by broader positioning. Trading remained orderly without signs of forced selling.

The index’s underperformance relative to large-caps this year reflects multiple factors including monetary policy effects and concentration in mega-cap technology performance.

Small business optimism surveys and credit conditions provide additional context for Russell 2000 fundamentals. Recent readings have shown caution amid persistent inflation in certain categories.

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Corporate bond markets and lending standards also influence small company access to capital. Tighter conditions can constrain growth plans for smaller firms.

As the trading day progresses, any economic data or sector news could influence small-cap direction. The Russell 2000’s path will likely remain tied to interest rate expectations and domestic growth signals.

Small-cap stocks offer exposure to domestic economic cycles distinct from multinational giants. Their performance can provide insights into broader economic health beyond headline large-cap indexes.

Monday’s modest decline fits a pattern of range-bound trading in recent sessions for the Russell 2000. Investors continue balancing growth potential with near-term uncertainties.

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The small-cap universe encompasses thousands of companies across diverse industries, providing broad economic exposure. This diversity contributes to the index’s role as a key market barometer.

Market participants will monitor upcoming earnings from small-cap names for insights into operating trends. Aggregate results could influence sentiment toward the asset class.

The Russell 2000’s composition and characteristics make it a distinct investment category. Its movements reflect unique dynamics separate from large-cap dominated indexes.

As economic conditions evolve, small-caps may present opportunities for investors seeking domestic growth exposure. However, selectivity and risk management remain essential given inherent volatility.

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Monday’s trading underscores the ongoing differentiation within equity markets. While some segments advance on specific catalysts, small-caps navigate a complex backdrop of economic signals and monetary policy considerations.

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Why is GigaDevice Semiconductor stock sliding today?

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Why is GigaDevice Semiconductor stock sliding today?

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Delayed monsoon may weigh on auto demand, but long-term outlook stays strong: Aditya Shah

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Delayed monsoon may weigh on auto demand, but long-term outlook stays strong: Aditya Shah
A delayed monsoon is emerging as a key concern for the automobile sector, particularly for rural-focused segments such as tractors and two-wheelers. However, Aditya Shah, Founder, Hercules Advisors believes the weakness is likely to remain temporary, while the long-term outlook for automobiles remains intact.

Rural Demand May Slow, But Auto Story Remains Positive

The Nifty Auto index came under pressure amid concerns that a delayed monsoon could hurt rural demand, affecting tractor and two-wheeler sales.

Shah believes the market will eventually factor in the impact of a weaker monsoon, but says the broader growth story for the sector remains intact.

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“The market will adjust to this reality, and a deficient monsoon is something that we are looking at. Having said that, I believe the auto sector, barring this short-term problem, will continue to do well,” he said.

He prefers Mahindra & Mahindra and Eicher Motors among OEMs, while highlighting Sona BLW and Motherson as stronger long-term opportunities in the auto ancillary space.
“The real juice, the real delta is in the auto ancillary space… Over the longer period, I remain positive first on the auto ancillaries and then on the OEMs,” he said.
EV Theme Is a Long-Term Opportunity
Discussing the Delhi government’s new EV policy and incentives, Shah said electric mobility remains a structural investment theme, although infrastructure challenges will slow adoption in the near future.

“EV is not a short-term play. It is a long-term play,” he said.

He identified TVS Motor, Ather, Tata Motors, Mahindra, and Sona BLW among the companies best positioned to benefit from the transition.

“Sona BLW, where 70% of its revenue is linked to the EV side of the market, will continue to do well… Over the next three to five years, EV is a good theme to play,” he said.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank Offers Long-Term Value
Shah believes the valuation reset in Kotak Mahindra Bank reflects uncertainty around the leadership transition after founder Uday Kotak’s exit.

However, he sees the correction as an attractive entry point for long-term investors. “This one-and-a-half to two times price-to-book is the area to buy Kotak Bank,” he said.

He added that the bank’s strong asset quality remains a key positive despite the ongoing management transition.

Banks Continue to Be a Preferred Sector
Shah expects banking sector loan growth of around 10-15% in FY27, assuming geopolitical risks ease and inflation remains under control.

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He remains positive on private sector banks and SBI while also seeing turnaround opportunities in select microfinance lenders.

“Private sector banks together with SBI will remain a growth pick… For FY27, I am positive on the banks,” he said.

Chemicals, Pharma and EPC Also Stand Out
Beyond financials, Shah continues to favour chemicals, pharmaceuticals and EPC companies, particularly those that have corrected meaningfully.

He named Deepak Nitrite, Vinati Organics, Apcotex Industries, Laurus Labs, Divi’s Labs, Neuland, and Syngene as companies worth tracking, while also seeing value in reasonably priced EPC contractors.

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“Chemicals and pharma continue to be my top picks… Banks continue to be my top pick, while the microfinance space is where a lot of alpha can be created,” he said.

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