Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has said Bitcoin may be moving closer to a market bottom as Strategy’s STRC stress drains excess leverage from the market.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote in his latest weekly memo that the recent volatility in Strategy’s STRC preferred stock looks like a late-cycle unwind rather than a sign of more serious structural damage.

“The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle. I think we’re nearing the bottom.”

STRC stress has forced leverage out of Bitcoin

STRC is a perpetual preferred stock created by Strategy to offer investors a high yield while keeping the instrument close to its $100 par value. Hougan said Strategy used the product to raise about $10.5 billion, with proceeds helping finance more Bitcoin purchases.

The trade weakened last week after Bitcoin and MSTR declined, sending STRC to roughly $75 and raising concerns over Strategy’s ability to keep funding preferred dividends. The company responded this week by increasing STRC’s annual dividend to 12%, authorizing up to $2 billion in common and preferred stock buybacks, and introducing a capital management framework that allows Bitcoin sales to strengthen reserves, meet dividend and debt obligations, and fund share repurchases.

According to Barron’s, STRC recently fell to a record low of $73.62 before Strategy increased the dividend and moved toward what it called active capital management. The report also said Strategy authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to help strengthen reserves.

Hougan said the move means Strategy may no longer act as a one-way source of Bitcoin demand. “For years, Strategy has been the most dominant Bitcoin buyer in the world and a one way source of Bitcoin demand,” he wrote. “Those days are likely over.”

Institutions could lead the next Bitcoin rally

Hougan does not expect Strategy to become a forced seller, saying the company still has enough assets to cover debt and preferred obligations. He argued Bitcoin would need to fall much further and stay depressed before Strategy faced serious balance sheet pressure.

Instead, Hougan expects the next cycle to depend more on institutions, including banks, asset managers, pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and financial advisers.

The Bitwise CIO compared the STRC unwind with the collapse of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium after the 2019 to 2021 bull market. In his view, both structures pulled capital into Bitcoin during strong markets before losing support and forcing a painful reset.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $62,000 after softer U.S. jobs data improved risk appetite. Reuters reported that the U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, below expectations, while stocks rose and the dollar weakened as traders reduced expectations for Fed tightening.

Hougan said investors should watch for MSTR trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, extreme Crypto Fear and Greed Index readings, and negative funding rates. While he warned that bottoms are impossible to call in real time, he wrote that the STRC unwind suggests the market is entering the final stage of the cycle.

“I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever,” Hougan wrote, adding that he expects a new Bitcoin bull market to begin in the fall.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $62,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open as crypto reacted to weak US employment figures.

Key points:

• US nonfarm payrolls data delivers a crypto market boost as job additions for June fall short.
• Investors eye an easing in the inflation outlook as optimism over BTC prices increases.
• Crypto begins its forecast “green July” by liquidating nearly $500 milllion of short positions.

Bitcoin gains amid “volatile situation” for US labor market

Data from TradingView showed new July highs of $62,137 on Bitstamp, with BTC/USD up nearly 4% on the day.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The latest nonfarm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the US added far fewer jobs than expected in June, at 57,000 versus the anticipated 114,000.

“Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in June,” an official news release stated.

US unemployment data. Source: BLS

The jobs numbers painted a weak picture of the labor market — a potential tailwind for risk assets should the Federal Reserve loosen financial policy as a result.

“May’s jobs number was also revised down by -43,000 jobs,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a reaction on X. 

“The labor market remains in a volatile situation.”

As Bitcoin and altcoins headed higher, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe was among those shifting toward a more optimistic mid-term market view.

“Inflation expectations have come down. Now, unemployment drops too. It’s at its lowest level in close to a year. Those are strong, public signals about the direction of the markets,” he told X followers. 

“I don’t think we’ll see another drop on Bitcoin if Bitcoin can clearly break through $65,000 from here.”

Bitcoin “buyers are back and strong”

Other market participants also drew attention to Bitcoin bulls’ newfound strength.

Related: Bitcoin bear market ‘dead’ after first TD9 reversal signal since July 2022 fires

“Price drilling through large asks on Binance perps orderbook is actually sign of strength. Plus, we have chasing bids supporting aggressive buyers,” commentator Exitpump reported about exchange order-book data. 

“Buyers are back and strong.”

BTC/USDT chart with order-book liquidity data. Source: Exitpump/X

Data from CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto short liquidations at nearly $450 million at the time of writing. 

BTC/USD vs. cryptocurrency liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“Welcome to green July,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued.

As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital expects a July relief rally for Bitcoin before bear-market momentum resumes in August.

An accompanying chart, which featured the 21-month and 50-month exponential moving averages (EMAs), drew comparisons to the 2022 bear market, with the implication that the cycle lows were still to come.

“And once Bitcoin turns the 50 EMA into new resistance on this relief rally, it will likely enter additional Bearish Acceleration over time,” Rekt Capital added in a separate X post.

BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

It is moving from a weak position. Shares closed near 16 cents on June 29, and Nasdaq has twice warned the company this year that it no longer meets listing rules, in January for trading below $1 and again in June because its publicly held shares are worth less than the $15 million minimum.

K Wave is considering a reverse stock split, which combines shares into fewer, higher-priced shares to raise the quoted price. The $250 million it hopes to raise is many times its entire market value.

The retreat fits a pattern followed by bitcoin miners.

These firms have sold more than 15,000 bitcoin from peak holdings and signed over $70 billion in AI computing contracts, chasing steadier margins than mining offers, and treasury companies are now joining that rotation. And it worked for some of the struggling miners, as their stock rallied from their lows. For example, IREN, a previously bitcoin mining company that pivoted to AI, saw its shares surge more than 200% after languishing since 2022.

It is the same shift of money out of crypto and into the AI trade that has weighed on bitcoin through a losing first half.

Whether the switch works remains unproven so far. AI infrastructure is capital-heavy and crowded with better-funded rivals, and K Wave has to stay on Nasdaq long enough to spend what it raises.

The idea of prediction markets is centuries old. Informal information markets date back to early 16th-century Italy, where people speculated on who would become the next pope and circulated the odds through handwritten letters. While the technology has changed dramatically, the underlying instinct has not.

People have always looked to collective opinion as a way to understand what may happen next. But as prediction markets expand and attract attention from major technology companies such as Meta, the industry faces a new question: if these platforms are designed to reflect collective intelligence, why are so many markets still shaped by centralized teams?

Rain Trade is taking a different approach to forecasting. Rather than treating market creation as a centralized process, the platform allows anyone to launch public or private prediction markets on any topic, in any language. Users decide what deserves a market, whether it’s the game aired tonight, a political development, or even the outcome of the latest season of Love Island USA, which generated more than $20 million in trading volume on Kalshi during its first two weeks.

The launch coincides with the 2026 FIFA World Cup, during which millions of fans continually debate match outcomes, player performances, and tournament predictions. The launch campaign is backed by former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson, who will serve as the face of Rain Trade’s official rollout.

Roy Shaham, CEO of Rain Protocol, the foundation on which Rain Trade is built, said the platform reflects where prediction markets are heading next: “Users want more than a list of markets chosen for them. They want the freedom to create, participate, and build communities around the events they care about. Rain Trade was designed to give them that control, turning prediction markets into something shaped by users, not just platform operators.”

That user-driven approach is central to Rain Trade’s model. Unlike traditional platforms, where markets are selected by the platform itself, Rain Trade allows users to create and share their own markets. They can keep them public or keep them private and password-protected for a specific community, group, or audience. That flexibility allows prediction markets to be shaped less by major headlines and more by the smaller conversations happening in real-time across online communities and in private chats.

To encourage participation, market creators can earn a share of the trading activity generated by the markets they launch. Whether the markets are formed around the World Cup, entertainment, politics, or in a private group chat, the idea is that the community, not a centralized team, should always be the ones to decide what is worth predicting.

TLDR

• Netflix shares rose 3.95% on July 2, outperforming the Software & IT Services sector, which fell 1.01%.
• Market sentiment improved after concerns eased around possible Warner Bros Discovery and NBCUniversal acquisition activity.
• NFLX stock gained support from a lower valuation, which attracted buyers after recent selling pressure.
• Netflix’s advertising tier remained a major growth driver, supported by its Omnicom partnership and wider distribution reach.
• The $400 million Radford Studio Center acquisition signaled Netflix’s continued focus on production efficiency and cost control.

Netflix (NFLX) stock rose 3.95% on July 2, while Software & IT Services fell 1.01%, showing clear market outperformance. The move came with strong turnover, intraday swings, and confidence after weak sessions. NFLX stock also beat major sector peers.

Netflix, Inc., NFLX

Microsoft rose 1.24%, Meta fell 4.09%, and Palantir gained 2.72% among the sector’s busiest names. However, Netflix drew stronger attention because buyers entered after recent selling pressure. The price action showed renewed demand near depressed valuation levels.

NFLX stock benefited as traders shifted focus back to Netflix’s core business and away from deal speculation. The company faced concerns over large media deals that could raise leverage. Yet management avoided costly merger risks and preserved capital discipline during a volatile backdrop.

Deal Concerns Ease Around Netflix

Market sentiment improved after Netflix moved away from major acquisition speculation. Reports had linked the company with Warner Bros Discovery, but concerns eased after the overhang faded. Management also saw NBCUniversal rumors denied, which reduced deal pressure and stabilized expectations.

The market viewed that restraint as positive for NFLX stock because it reduced concern over large commitments. Large media mergers often create debt concerns, integration risks, and uncertainty over earnings. Therefore, Netflix’s decision helped restore attention to subscriber growth, advertising revenue, and content returns.

NFLX stock gained momentum as deal risks faded and organic growth returned to focus. Netflix did not issue a fresh statement on the move, and the stock traded on market interpretation. Still, the reduced deal noise supported a cleaner investment case for NFLX stock and strengthened the recovery.

Valuation and Ads Support Momentum

NFLX stock also attracted demand after trading near its 52-week low and a cheaper forward earnings multiple. The lower valuation encouraged dip buying from funds and active traders before the next earnings update. Technical signals also improved after earlier oversold readings, which helped short-term momentum.

The advertising business added another growth driver for NFLX stock as Netflix expands beyond standard subscription revenue. Its Omnicom partnership strengthens ad targeting, campaign tools, and monetization across the ad-supported base. The company also expands access through Spectrum’s app store distribution deal, which may support wider reach.

NFLX stock gained further support from cost controls and studio investments. Netflix bought Radford Studio Center for $400 million to improve production efficiency and manage content costs. Together, ads, valuation, and spending discipline drove the 3.95% move in NFLX stock.

Ondo Finance says it is moving beyond simple “tokenized ownership” by adding shareholder-style governance tools to its onchain securities. Through a partnership with financial infrastructure provider Broadridge, holders of certain Ondo-issued tokenized stocks and ETFs will be able to participate in proxy voting and receive corporate communications through a Web3-enabled workflow.

The announcement targets a recurring concern in tokenized securities: even when users can buy and hold tokenized shares, it has not always been clear how, or whether, they receive the voting and notice rights that come with traditional direct stock ownership.

Key takeaways

• Ondo plans to enable proxy voting and access to corporate communications for holders of more than 250 tokenized securities issued through its platform.
• The solution is powered by a Web3-enabled version of Broadridge’s investor communications platform, designed to authenticate via blockchain wallets.
• Ondo says the governance features will accompany the launch of its first US custodial tokenized securities, including tokenized products tied to iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and Micron Technology (MU).
• The company frames the rollout as aligned with the US SEC’s third-party custodial framework for tokenized securities.
• The move arrives as the tokenized equities market continues expanding, with growing competition among tokenization providers.

Why governance rights matter for tokenized equities

Tokenization has helped reshape parts of capital markets by enabling digital settlement and potentially more flexible access to investment products. But governance—specifically proxy voting and access to corporate materials—is where tokenized products often face scrutiny from investors and market structure observers.

Ondo’s new integration with Broadridge is designed to close that gap. According to the companies, holders can participate in proxy voting and receive corporate communications such as regulatory filings and other shareholder documents, using an interface that connects onchain identity (blockchain wallet authentication) to services traditionally reserved for registered shareholders.

For investors, this matters because governance rights are not merely an administrative feature. They are tied to how shareholders influence corporate decisions, respond to proposals, and receive timely disclosures—elements that can be central to due diligence and long-term ownership strategies.

Broadridge integration brings Web3 wallet authentication to investor communications

Ondo said its implementation uses a Broadridge investor communications platform adapted for Web3 use. The goal is to let users authenticate with blockchain wallets while accessing governance services that typically operate through conventional shareholder channels.

While the market has increasingly focused on execution—how quickly assets can transfer and trade—Ondo’s emphasis is on the “investor experience” layer. By connecting wallet authentication to proxy voting and document delivery, the company is effectively targeting the part of tokenized securities that can otherwise feel incomplete compared with traditional brokerage ownership.

Ondo’s announcement also indicates that the governance capability is expected to scale across a broad set of tokenized instruments—specifically, more than 250 securities issued through Ondo that are covered by the rollout.

Custodial tokenized securities and the SEC’s third-party framework

Ondo said the voting and corporate communications functions will be included with the launch of its first US custodial tokenized securities. The company named tokenized versions of BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and Micron Technology (MU) as part of that initial offering.

In its explanation of the regulatory approach, Ondo linked the rollout to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s third-party custodial framework for tokenized securities. That framework, as discussed in earlier coverage from Cointelegraph, is one of the core regulatory pathways that distinguishes how tokenized securities may be structured and held.

By anchoring governance features to the launch of custodial tokenized products, Ondo is also signaling that it views custody, investor rights, and compliance mechanics as interconnected—not optional add-ons.

Tokenized equities keep growing—competition intensifies

Ondo’s governance push lands as tokenized equities show continued momentum. Foresight Ventures data, cited in Ondo’s recent reporting, indicated the tokenized stocks segment first surpassed $1 billion in March. Ondo later said that the market grew to $1.67 billion and reached nearly 181,000 unique holders, referencing data shared in its own publication.

In addition to Ondo, other firms are expanding their tokenized-stock offerings. Backed Finance, for example, issues tokenized stocks via its xStocks platform and has broadened distribution across multiple crypto exchanges and blockchain networks, according to the article context.

The broader category—tokenized real-world assets—has also attracted attention even during periods of weaker overall crypto sentiment. A recent 21shares report attributed sustained growth in institutional participation to improving infrastructure, while Binance data referenced in the source material said the value of tokenized RWA assets, including stocks, surged nearly 600% over the past year.

Together, these figures help explain why governance integrations are becoming more strategic. As more providers enter the space and assets proliferate, investors will likely demand more complete “shareholder-equivalent” functionality rather than only trading access and settlement speed.

What to watch next for investors

Investors should watch how Ondo and Broadridge operationalize proxy voting and document delivery across supported securities, including how wallet authentication maps to investor eligibility and participation. As tokenized equities continue to scale, governance functionality may become a differentiator as important as liquidity and custody.

Earlier this week, Strategy unveiled a capital framework allowing selective bitcoin sales to fund preferred dividends, while authorizing preferred share repurchases and stock buybacks. It also set a minimum cash reserve covering 12 months of preferred dividend and interest payments. Its $2.55 billion cash balance currently covers about 17 months.

Hougan said the episode marks a broader shift in Strategy’s role within bitcoin markets. Rather than serving as crypto’s dominant, one-way buyer, the firm is likely to become a more flexible participant whose bitcoin purchases or sales depend on market conditions.

Looking ahead, Bitwise believes institutional investors, including asset managers, banks, pensions, endowments and sovereign funds, are positioned to replace Strategy as bitcoin’s primary source of demand.

More broadly, STRC volatility is seen as part of the leverage unwind that typically marks the late stages of every crypto cycle. As speculative excess is flushed from the system, the market moves closer to establishing a durable bottom, though the exact timing remains impossible to predict, the report added.

Wall Street bank JPMorgan said Strategy’s new policy allowing selective bitcoin sales to fund preferred dividends creates avoidable two-way risk, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.

Read more: JPMorgan says Strategy’s bitcoin sales policy adds ‘two-way risk’ to crypto markets