The American jobs machine slipped a gear in June. The world’s largest economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, barely half the 110,000 that Wall Street had pencilled in and the first undershoot in employment growth since the US-Iran war began.

The figure, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is the weakest since payrolls contracted by 155,000 in February. Yet the report was not uniformly gloomy: the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 per cent from 4.3 per cent, defying forecasts of no change.

Much of the disappointment centred on the football World Cup, which kicked off on June 11 across 11 US host cities. Analysts had expected the tournament to lift hiring in hospitality and related sectors. Instead, payrolls in food and accommodation fell by 55,000. “We haven’t seen any major indication of World Cup related hiring yet,” said Shruti Mishra, US economist at Bank of America.

That is not to say the tournament has left no trace. Host cities have reported a 5 per cent rise in spending at restaurants and bars during the competition, against an average of 3.8 per cent across the rest of the country, according to Bank of America’s credit card spending data. The spending is flowing; the jobs, so far, are not.

The broader picture is one of deceleration on both sides of the ledger. The public sector generated 8,000 jobs, down from 32,000 in May, while the private sector added 49,000, down from 97,000. Jobs growth was strongest in education, professional and business services, social assistance and healthcare. Figures for April and May were revised down by a cumulative 74,000, with the losses concentrated in leisure and hospitality, a pattern familiar to readers who have followed the slowdown in the US jobs market over the past year.

Until now, the US labour market had performed better than forecast since the war in Iran, buoyed by booming private sector investment in artificial intelligence and resilient consumer spending. Average hourly earnings growth was unchanged at 0.3 per cent on the month, with the annual rate edging up to 3.5 per cent from 3.4 per cent.

All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh, who took over as chairman in late May, has made clear the central bank will prioritise bringing down above-target inflation over its mandate to ensure full employment. Traders trimmed their expectations of two interest rate rises after the data landed.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the slowdown would push the Fed into leaving borrowing costs unchanged this month. “President Donald Trump has deported Goldilocks, the ability of the US economy to expand at a solid pace without generating excess inflation,” he said.

The miss was not entirely unforeseen. Economists at Citigroup had forecast a softer 25,000 to 85,000 expansion, citing rising unemployment claims, weaker private sector hiring intentions and a drop-off in job postings in June.

Markets took the news in their stride. The dollar declined by 0.6 per cent against a basket of currencies on Thursday, while government bond prices were stable. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said the report “should ultimately be welcomed by markets”.

She added: “We continue to expect the Fed to hold rates steady through to the year-end. However, if unemployment keeps falling, the case for additional policy tightening later this year will become increasingly compelling.”

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

LeBron James has officially become a free agent for the first time since 2018, and the four-time NBA champion’s decision on where he plays next has become the defining storyline of this year’s offseason. James informed the Los Angeles Lakers earlier this month that he intends to continue his career elsewhere for the 2026-27 season, ending an eight-year run with the franchise and setting up what has already been dubbed “The Decision 4.0.”

The move was confirmed by James’ longtime agent, Rich Paul, chief executive of Klutch Sports, who told multiple outlets that James would play for a different team next season but had not yet decided where. Lakers governor Jeanie Buss addressed the news in a statement, calling James “one of the greatest athletes in history” and adding that the organization would “always be thankful for his eight years with the Lakers — including the title he led us to in 2020 under the toughest imaginable circumstances.” James responded publicly as well, writing that it had been “truly a honor to wear the purple and gold while trying to continue the greatness and legacies that came before” him.

According to reporting from ESPN’s Shams Charania, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors have emerged as the current leaders in the race to sign James, with the Denver Nuggets also expressing interest. Paul has since been candid about additional teams in the mix, discussing potential fits including the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics during a podcast appearance. Reports also indicate James instructed Paul to speak with any interested team around the league before returning with a full set of options for him to consider.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers A return to Cleveland would mark James’ third stint with the franchise that drafted him first overall in 2003. He returned to a hero’s welcome in 2014 and later led the Cavaliers to their first championship in 2016. The current roster, featuring James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, is considered championship-ready, with what analysts describe as a natural opening at small forward for James to fill. A homecoming would also set up what could become a full-circle retirement tour for the Akron, Ohio, native in the years ahead.

2. Miami Heat The Heat represent familiarity for James, who spent four seasons in Miami from 2010 to 2014, winning two championships during his time there. While specific roster fits with Miami have drawn less detailed public reporting than some other suitors, the team has remained consistently mentioned among the frontrunners according to Charania’s reporting, reflecting the strength of James’ historical ties to the organization and the city.

3. Golden State Warriors Perhaps no potential destination has generated more buzz than Golden State, where James could pair with longtime rival-turned-Olympic teammate Stephen Curry. The two competed against each other in four consecutive NBA Finals during the 2010s before later teaming up to win Olympic gold together in 2024. Speaking about a separate teammate, Kevin Durant, during that tournament, James once said, “He’s just out of this world talent. I think he even goes even harder in practice, and when the game starts, it’s just routine for him,” illustrating the mutual respect James has expressed for some of the era’s other top scorers. A Golden State move would require the Warriors to navigate significant salary-cap challenges, and questions remain about the team’s aging core, with Curry set to turn 39 during the coming season and Draymond Green’s own future with the franchise reportedly tied in part to whether the team lands James.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves According to The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski, the Timberwolves believe they have a legitimate shot at signing James, pitching a young core built around Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert. James has previously called himself a “longtime fan” of Edwards, his teammate during the 2024 Paris Olympics. Minnesota’s pitch reportedly leans heavily on the franchise’s lack of a championship in its history, framing a potential title alongside James as a legacy-defining achievement for both the team and the player. The Timberwolves have reached the Western Conference finals in each of the past two seasons, giving the pitch added credibility.

5. Denver Nuggets Denver’s veteran-heavy roster, built around three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, pushed the Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in last year’s playoffs. Pairing James with Jokic would give the Nuggets what analysts describe as a strong case for the league’s best frontline, while Jokic’s dominant presence could allow James to manage his workload during the regular season with an eye toward a deep playoff run. The Nuggets previously made a notable effort to recruit James back in 2018, well before Jokic had won any of his three MVP awards or the franchise had captured its only championship.

Beyond these five teams, additional franchises have continued to make their own pitches public. The Philadelphia 76ers became a more serious contender after acquiring Jaylen Brown in a trade for Paul George, a move that reportedly intrigued Paul during his recent media appearances. Other teams, including the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings and San Antonio Spurs, have also been floated in various reports as long-shot destinations, each framing a potential James signing around either mentorship of a young core or a low-pressure path to a possible fifth championship ring.

As of the latest reporting, James has not set a firm timeline for his decision, and league insiders have suggested fans may need to wait further before learning his choice. With training camps still months away, the coming weeks are expected to bring continued speculation as Paul works through conversations with interested franchises on James’ behalf, determining which combination of roster fit, championship potential and personal history will ultimately guide the four-time MVP’s next chapter as he prepares for a record-extending 24th NBA season.

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