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Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin says bitcoin could see ‘one more point of pain’

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Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin says bitcoin could see 'one more point of pain'

The current state of the crypto market is unfolding almost exactly as historical patterns would suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures

That’s why he was skeptical of recent overly optimistic bottom calls. “When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday.

Predictions that bitcoin would bottom at $60,000 and immediately resume its climb struck him as premature. “That also seems a little too soon.”

While he stopped short of forecasting another year-long drawdown, Terpin believes the market likely faces “one more point of pain” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a durable bottom is formed.

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The halving is central to bitcoin’s design because it cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half roughly every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.

This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as reduced new supply meets steady or rising demand.

The halving mechanism slows bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping total supply at 21 million coins and reinforcing its positioning as digital gold.

“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events.

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One of the most reliable elements of prior cycles has been the rough timing of the bubble peak and subsequent unwind, he argued.

“The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative blow-off phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”

Terpin draws a close parallel to the last cycle. “The highs, the bubble popping, were on Nov. 10, 2021,” he says. “The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly a year to the day.”

Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026

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U.S. Federal Reserve urges new rules for crypto derivatives

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U.S. Federal Reserve urges new rules for crypto derivatives

Federal Reserve researchers have proposed treating cryptocurrencies as a separate asset class for derivatives margin rules, citing their unique risks and high volatility.

Summary

  • Fed researchers suggest creating a dedicated crypto risk category in derivatives markets.
  • The proposal separates stablecoins and floating cryptocurrencies for better risk modeling.
  • The move aims to improve margin accuracy and reduce under-collateralization in OTC trades.

U.S. central bank researchers are calling for cryptocurrencies to be treated as a separate asset class in derivatives markets, arguing that digital assets carry risks that do not fit neatly into existing financial categories.

In a paper updated on Feb. 12, analysts examined how crypto-related risks are handled in over-the-counter derivatives. The study, titled “Initial Margin for Crypto Currencies Risks in Uncleared Markets,” focuses on how margin requirements are calculated under the framework used by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

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Why crypto needs its own category

The researchers argue that the behavior of cryptocurrencies differs greatly from that of traditional assets like stocks, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market stress tends to show up more abruptly, prices move more quickly, and swings are bigger. These features make it harder to measure risk using existing models.

Because of this, the paper suggests creating a separate crypto risk class within the current margin system. The proposal suggests sorting digital assets into two broad categories.

The first would include pegged cryptocurrencies, such as stablecoins designed to mirror the value of traditional currencies. The second would cover floating cryptocurrencies, whose prices are determined entirely by market supply and demand.

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This distinction is intended to acknowledge the different levels of risk involved. Stablecoins tend to fluctuate less, while unpegged tokens can swing sharply and without warning. According to the authors, applying the same margin framework to both groups can result in misjudged risk and poorly calibrated requirements.

The study also advises relying on long-term market data, including periods of severe financial stress, when assigning risk weights. While this mirrors established industry methods, it tailors them more closely to the specific behavior of crypto markets.

What this could mean for markets

If market participants adopt the proposal, margin requirements for crypto derivatives could become both stricter and more accurately aligned with underlying risk. In practical terms, traders and institutions might have to commit additional collateral, particularly for contracts linked to highly volatile assets.

Backers argue that this approach would lower the chances of under-collateralization, a situation in which trading losses exceed the margin posted. In stressed markets, that problem can spread quickly and threaten financial stability. A clearer framework could help limit those risks.

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At the same time, the paper stresses that it is not a formal regulation. It represents research and analysis by Fed staff, not an official rule or policy decision. Any real changes would need to come through industry adoption or future regulatory action.

Still, the timing is notable. As crypto markets grow and become more connected to traditional finance, regulators and institutions are paying closer attention to risk management. More banks, funds, and trading firms are now involved in digital assets, making standardized rules more important.

By recognizing crypto as its own category, the researchers signal that digital assets have reached a level of maturity that demands tailored oversight. While the proposal does not change the rules today, it adds momentum to ongoing efforts to bring a clearer structure to crypto derivatives markets.

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Zcash Draws Institutional Backing Amid Privacy Narrative and Technical Upgrades

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • Zcash secured backing from Vitalik Buterin and Winklevoss twins who deployed $50M and lab donations.

  • Project Tachyon uses recursive zero-knowledge proofs to enable thousands of shielded transactions per second.

  • The shielded pool reached 5,030,093 ZEC representing 30% of total supply at all-time high adoption levels.

  • ZEC trades at $220-250 after 69% correction from $758 peak as community debates critical governance proposals.


 

Zcash continues to attract institutional attention as privacy becomes a focal narrative in cryptocurrency markets. The digital asset recently received backing from Vitalik Buterin and the Winklevoss twins.

ZEC trades between $220-250 after a 69% correction from its November 2025 peak of $758. The shielded pool reached an all-time high of 5,030,093 ZEC, representing 30% of total supply.

Community governance proposals including Project Tachyon are under consideration as the network evaluates technical upgrades.

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Institutional Validation and Strategic Backing

Vitalik Buterin made his second donation to Shielded Labs on February 6, 2026, specifically supporting the Crosslink upgrade.

The Ethereum co-founder stated that Zcash remains one of the most honorable crypto projects with a steadfast focus on privacy.

Shielded Labs’ Crosslink work aims to enhance security while reducing the security budget for long-term sustainability.

The Winklevoss twins restructured Cypherpunk Technologies, formerly Leap Therapeutics, into the first Digital Asset Treasury focused exclusively on Zcash.

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They deployed $50 million to acquire ZEC and donated 3,221 ZEC valued at $1.2 million to Shielded Labs. Tyler Winklevoss emphasized that privacy remains crucial for a free and open society.

Grayscale maintains its Zcash Trust (ZCSH) as the only institutional product offering pure ZEC exposure. The trust has operated through multiple market cycles.

These institutional moves validate Zcash’s position in the privacy sector as regulatory scrutiny on transparent blockchains intensifies.

Technical Upgrades and Project Tachyon

Project Tachyon represents a complete architectural redesign of how privacy scales on the network. Sean Bowe, the cryptographer behind Halo and Sapling, leads this effort to solve fundamental bottlenecks in privacy coin adoption. Current systems require wallets to scan every transaction on the blockchain to identify relevant ones.

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Tachyon uses Proof-Carrying Data and recursive zero-knowledge proofs to flip this model entirely. Wallets maintain their own cryptographic proof of solvency instead of scanning all network transactions.

The system enables oblivious synchronization where wallets sync in seconds rather than hours. This approach allows Zcash to scale to thousands of shielded transactions per second.

The upgrade targets mainnet deployment within a year. Benchmarks demonstrate the cryptographic primitives work as designed. Community funding supports the development effort.

The technology aims to enable planetary-scale encrypted money that works for billions of users with mobile-first accessibility.

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Governance Decisions and Community Sentiment

The Zcash Coinholder Protocol Feature Sentiment Poll addresses 11 questions shaping the network’s future direction.

Key proposals include Project Tachyon, Network Sustainability Mechanism fee removal, Zcash Shielded Assets, and Consensus Accounts. The community actively debates each proposal through established governance channels.

The Network Sustainability Mechanism proposes burning 60% of transaction fees to address long-term security funding.

ZIP 233, ZIP 234, and ZIP 235 introduce infrastructure to remove funds from circulation and smooth issuance curves. The mechanism extends the security budget timeline while maintaining the 21 million ZEC cap.

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Zcash Shielded Assets would enable custom token issuance within the Orchard shielded pool. QEDIT developed ZIP 226 and ZIP 227 for the technical implementation.

However, some community members express concerns about protocol complexity and regulatory exposure. The governance process ensures thorough community review before implementation.

Market Conditions and Price Outlook

ZEC currently trades at $220-250 after declining from $758. The recent drop swept the October 17, 2025 low of $187, creating a potential liquidity grab.

Support zones exist at $220-250, $180-200, and $120. Resistance levels appear at $300-310, $380-420, and $540-560.

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The Electric Coin Company development team resigned in January 2026 due to commercialization disagreements. The Zcash Foundation, Shielded Labs, and community contributors continue development work. This transition reduces reliance on a single organization for protocol advancement.

Dubai’s Financial Services Authority banned privacy coins from DIFC-regulated venues in January 2026. However, the SEC closed its investigation into the Zcash Foundation in late 2025 without action.

Zcash’s optional transparency through view keys and transparent addresses provides regulatory flexibility compared to fully anonymous alternatives.

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Israel Arrests Two Over Polymarket Trades on Iran Strikes

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Israel Arrests Two Over Polymarket Trades on Iran Strikes

Israeli authorities have arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets on the predictions market Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran.

In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s Defense Ministry, its internal security service Shin Bet, and police said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after an investigation found that the reservist obtained classified information to place the bets.

The prosecutor’s office will pursue criminal charges for security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Authorities said the reservist was working for Shin Bet.

Prediction markets have seen major insider trading scandals this year after a Polymarket user won a bet that Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as Venezuelan president hours before he was captured by US forces, profiting around $400,000.

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The Israeli state-owned news outlet Kan reported last month that the Polymarket user “ricosuave666” placed several bets related to Israel’s military operations in Iran in June 2025, but it’s unknown if those arrested are behind the account.

The account had reportedly wagered tens of thousands of dollars and had profited over $152,300, betting on markets such as “Israel strike on Iran on June 24” and “Israel military action against Iran by Friday,” with the latter of the two bets winning them over $128,700.

Trades placed by Polymarket user ricosuave666 related to Israel’s attacks on Iran. Source: Kan

Related: Crypto PACs secure massive war chests ahead of US midterms 

Prediction markets lead to real security risks when misused

Lawmakers worldwide have raised concerns that insider knowledge could be exploited in prediction markets, undermining market integrity and eroding public trust.