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Standard Chartered Hints at $50,000?

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Historical BTC Flows

Bitcoin price remains under pressure, down around 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading close to $66,000 at press time. While short-term rebounds continue to appear, the broader structure still looks weak.

Now, even major institutions are turning cautious on their Bitcoin price predictions. New on-chain signals and long-term holders suggest the downside risk is not finished yet.

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Standard Chartered’s Warning Matches Weak ETF and Institutional Flows

Standard Chartered recently reiterated that Bitcoin could still fall toward $50,000 before any sustained recovery. The bank pointed to weakening ETF demand and fading institutional participation as key risks. When this view is compared with current market data, it lines up perfectly.

On the price chart, Bitcoin has broken down from a bear flag structure. A bear flag forms when prices consolidate after a sharp fall and then resume the downtrend. This pattern suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, even when short-term rebounds appear.

At the same time, institutional flow indicators are weakening. Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving the market, has dropped sharply. CMF now looks weaker than it did during the January–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin fell around 31%.

Historical BTC Flows
Historical BTC Flows: TradingView

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This time, the decline is steeper. Bitcoin has already dropped nearly 38% from its peak, and CMF has fallen faster than in early 2025. This confirms that institutional buying is not returning yet. Without sustained inflows from large investors, rallies struggle to hold.

It is worth noting that during the April-October 2025 phase, when BTC peaked, there were only a few instances when the CMF fell under the zero line, and that too marginally. But now, the CMF dip looks way scarier.

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This is why Standard Chartered’s caution makes sense. The breakdown on the chart and weak ETF-linked flows are telling the same story. But institutional weakness is not the only concern.

On-Chain Profits and Long-Term Holders Still Point to More Downside

Beyond ETFs, on-chain data shows that investor confidence remains fragile.

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One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL. NUPL measures how much profit or loss holders are sitting on by comparing current prices with when coins were last moved.

During the April 2024 rebound, NUPL was near 0.42. That showed minimal unrealized profits and supported a recovery. Today, NUPL has dropped much lower. It fell to around 0.11 in early February and is now near 0.17. This means most of the leftover profits from the bull cycle have already been wiped out. But this doesn’t confirm a bottom if the bigger picture is taken into consideration.

Bitcoin NUPL
Bitcoin NUPL: Glassnode

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History shows NUPL can still fall further. In March 2023, NUPL dropped to near 0.02 when Bitcoin traded around $20,000. That marked deep capitulation before the next major rally began. Compared to that period, current NUPL levels remain relatively elevated. This suggests the market may not be fully washed out yet.

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Long-term holder behavior supports this view. Long-term BTC holders are wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than one year. These investors usually accumulate during major bottoms and help stabilize prices.

Right now, they are still net sellers. In early February 2025, long-term holders reduced holdings by more than 170,000 BTC. At the peak of recent selling, in February 2026, outflows reached nearly 245,000 BTC. This is a heavier distribution than during the January–April 2025 correction.

Holders Selling
Holders Selling: Glassnode

Back then, demand from long-term holders had already started recovering before prices bounced. Today, that recovery has not appeared. In simple terms, institutions are cautious, profits are shrinking, and long-term holders are not stepping in yet. This combination makes a strong rebound unlikely in the near term.

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Why the $53,000–$48,000 Zone Still Matters on the Bitcoin Price Chart

With fundamentals and on-chain data aligned to the downside, the Bitcoin price levels now become critical.

The current bear flag projection points toward a broad support zone between $53,200 and $48,300. This range aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels.

The midpoint of this zone sits close to $50,000, which remains a major psychological level. Round numbers often attract strong buying and selling activity, making them natural magnets during corrections. This is why Standard Chartered’s $50,000 view fits the technical structure. It is not an arbitrary target. It sits directly inside the main support band.

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

If selling pressure continues and ETF flows remain weak, Bitcoin could test this region in the coming months. In a deeper risk-off scenario, downside could even extend toward $42,400, which matches longer-term breakdown projections and historical support.

For this bearish Bitcoin price prediction to slow down, BTC would need to reclaim and hold above the $72,100 region with strong volume and renewed institutional inflows. That would signal that demand has returned and that the bear flag has failed. So far, there is no evidence of that.

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Crypto World

Ethereum Economic Zone launches at EthCC to tackle L2 ‘fragmentation problem’

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What wiped out $1.7 billion?

Summary

  • Gnosis, Zisk and the Ethereum Foundation unveiled the Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ) at EthCC in Cannes to unify fragmented Ethereum layer-2 networks.
  • The framework targets over 20 L2s securing roughly $40 billion in value, enabling synchronous composability without relying on bridges and standardizing ETH as gas.
  • Early backers include Aave and Centrifuge, with developers calling EEZ a “new era” for on-chain applications as Ethereum grapples with slowing fee revenue and a weaker deflationary narrative.

The Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem took aim at one of its biggest structural weaknesses at EthCC 2026, as Gnosis, Zisk and the Ethereum Foundation publicly launched the Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ), a rollup framework designed to knit together an increasingly fractured layer‑2 landscape. Revealed on March 29 at the Palais des Festivals in Cannes, the initiative seeks to make dozens of Ethereum L2s behave “like one unified system,” in the words of project backers, by restoring synchronous composability between rollups and Ethereum mainnet while keeping security anchored to the base chain.

Ethereum Economic Zone launches

More than 20 operational Ethereum L2s currently secure about $40 billion in assets, yet function largely as isolated ecosystems, each with its own liquidity pools, deployments and bridge infrastructure. “Ethereum doesn’t have a scaling problem. It has a fragmentation problem,” Gnosis co‑founder Friederike Ernst said in comments shared with crypto media, arguing that “every new L2 that goes live has its own liquidity pool and bridging, creating another isolated walled garden.” The EEZ framework instead allows smart contracts on participating rollups to perform synchronous calls with each other and with Ethereum mainnet in a single atomic transaction, using ETH as the default gas token and removing the need for separate bridge protocols.

At EthCC, Ernst and Zisk developer Jordi Baylina presented the EEZ as an explicitly Ethereum‑aligned answer to the user‑experience and capital‑efficiency frictions created by the network’s L2‑centric scaling roadmap. According to coverage from outlets such as The Block and CoinDesk, the collaboration is co‑funded by the Ethereum Foundation and launches with Aave, Centrifuge and a Swiss‑based EEZ Alliance among its early partners, underscoring that DeFi blue chips see value in shared liquidity and cross‑rollup settlement. “The zone will facilitate a new era of blockchain innovation,” Zisk’s CEO Maria Roberts told conference attendees, adding that developers will be able to plug existing applications into the framework “pretty easily.”

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The timing is not accidental. Ethereum’s shift of activity toward cheaper L2s has reduced fee revenue on mainnet and softened the narrative of ether as a strongly deflationary asset, with ETH trading near $2,000 even as the network still secures roughly $53 billion in DeFi total value locked and about $163 billion in stablecoins, according to recent market data cited by Phemex. By unifying L2 liquidity and simplifying cross‑network flows, EEZ’s architects are betting that a more cohesive Ethereum stack can keep capital and users inside the ecosystem, even as competing smart contract platforms and modular architectures fight for market share.

Kaiko reports Alameda gap still existsIn separate reporting on EthCC, organizers have described 2026 as “the year of professionalisation of Ethereum and the wider crypto ecosystem,” with the conference’s move to Cannes and the launch of institutional‑focused forums like Kaiko’s Agora strengthening the sense that Ethereum’s next phase will be defined as much by market structure and infrastructure as by new token launches.

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

Michael Selig, US President Donald Trump’s nominee leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency was prepared to oversee the entire $3 trillion crypto industry, with no timeline for Congress to pass a crucial market structure bill.

In a Wednesday statement about his first 100 days as CFTC chair, Selig said that the commission was “ready to take responsibility” for the crypto market and reiterated his claim that it was the sole regulator to oversee prediction markets.

His comments come as the US Senate considers the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that has been effectively stalled in committee amid discussions over stablecoin yield and other issues.

“The same regulatory clarity being delivered to the crypto industry is being developed for prediction markets, which can serve as powerful tools for information discovery and are regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act,” said Selig.

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Under Selig, who was confirmed by the Senate in December, the CFTC has adopted many policies signaling that the agency would soften its enforcement and regulation of digital assets compared to previous administrations. In March, the agency announced a memorandum of understanding with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of efforts to coordinate on regulation, including digital assets.

Related: Crypto exchange KuCoin agrees to $500K settlement, ending CFTC case

Although early drafts of the market structure bill suggested the legislation could give the CFTC additional authority to oversee digital assets, the SEC is expected to continue regulating cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities.

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Lawmakers pressing CFTC on insider trading claims over prediction markets

US state authorities and federal lawmakers have been targeting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged violations of gaming laws and claims of politicians using insider information to profit.

While many of the state-level actions continue to be litigated in court, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened legal action against any challenges to its authority.

In a Tuesday event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller said that the agency’s position was that event contracts on prediction markets were not “gaming” but rather “swaps” that fall under its purview.

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Some lawmakers have also proposed legislation to ban elected officials with insider information from profiting from event contracts after suspicious trades on military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.

Magazine: A newbie’s guide to surviving crypto winter