Bitcoin price climbed back above $65,000 on July 27 as the pause in US-Iran strikes drove oil lower and restored demand for risk assets.

Bitcoin price rises as US-Iran strikes pause

Bitcoin was trading at $65,386 at the time of the July 27 chart, nearly unchanged for the day after moving between $64,892 and $65,744. The latest advance extended its recovery from the July 25 low near $63,700.

The immediate catalyst came from the Middle East, where the United States and Iran refrained from attacking each other for a third consecutive day. Regional mediators reported progress toward an interim ceasefire, although Washington and Tehran had not resumed direct negotiations. AP reported that Iran and Oman were also discussing how to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices fell sharply as the pause reduced fears of a prolonged supply disruption. Brent crude dropped 6.5% to $90.45, while the weaker oil outlook supported stocks, cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive markets. Bitcoin rose to about $65,155 during the session.

Lower energy prices can reduce near-term inflation pressure, a factor that matters for US crypto investors ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 policy meeting. However, futures markets still assigned a 33% probability to a rate increase, up from 16% a week earlier, Reuters reported.

The geopolitical risk has also not disappeared. Iran’s foreign ministry said Tehran had not requested renewed talks with Washington and reported no change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a separate Reuters report.

Bitcoin indicators favor another test of $67,181

Bitcoin remains inside an ascending parallel channel on the 4-hour chart. The lower boundary now passes through approximately $64,000, while the upper trendline approaches the $67,800-$68,000 region.

BTC rebounded from the lower trendline on July 25 and moved back above $65,000, preserving the pattern of higher lows established at the beginning of July. The channel therefore remains valid unless sellers force a 4-hour close below the rising support.

Momentum indicators have also improved. The 4-hour relative strength index rose to 58.64 from below 40, placing it above its moving average of 47.45 without entering overbought territory.

The moving average convergence divergence indicator completed a bullish crossover. Its histogram increased to 141.34, showing that positive momentum was rebuilding after the July 21-25 pullback.

Daily indicators are less decisive but still lean constructive. The Aroon Up reading stood at 57.14%, while Aroon Down fell to zero, showing that recent highs carried more weight than recent lows. Chaikin Money Flow remained positive at 0.04, indicating modest net buying pressure rather than aggressive capital inflows.

Bitcoin must now close above the daily resistance at $67,181 to leave its current consolidation range. That level rejected the July 21 advance and sits close to the upper boundary of the 4-hour channel.

Liquidation heatmap puts $68,000 within reach

The three-day CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows that Bitcoin cleared several leveraged clusters between $64,500 and $65,300 during its rebound. The move likely forced some short positions to close, adding buy orders to the rally.

Further liquidation bands appear between $65,800 and $66,600. A sustained move above the latest intraday high of $65,744 could draw price toward these positions before BTC challenges $67,181.

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also identified $68,000 as a possible target if US lawmakers make progress on the CLARITY Act.

“Any chance of it moving forward could send Bitcoin to $68,000 soon,” Pillows wrote.

That target broadly matches the upper boundary of the ascending channel. However, the policy catalyst remains uncertain. Polymarket traders placed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at about 38% as of July 27, with $2.8 million wagered on the market.

US spot Bitcoin ETF demand also remains uneven. The funds recorded $33 million in net inflows after three weeks of weaker activity, but SoSoValue data showed a $240.08 million net outflow on July 24. The mixed flows suggest institutional demand has improved without confirming a sustained reversal.

BTC risks a return to $63,000 if support fails

The bullish setup would weaken if Bitcoin loses the channel floor near $64,000. The daily chart places the broader range support at $61,506, leaving room for a deeper decline if the current higher-low structure breaks.

The liquidation heatmap identifies the strongest downside clusters between $63,000 and $63,500. These bright bands could attract price if weekend gains unwind or tensions between the US and Iran return.

According to crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder, weekend Bitcoin rallies are often retraced. He is watching for a possible short setup after a sweep of recent highs, with $63,700 as the initial downside target. Snyder identified the $60,000 region as his first preferred area for a potential long position if the correction deepens.

For the bullish case, Bitcoin needs to defend $64,000 and break $67,181. That would expose $68,000, where the channel ceiling and analyst target converge. A rejection followed by a move below $64,000 would instead put $63,500, $61,506, and eventually $60,000 back in focus.

European authorities added 15 crypto companies including a BNY Mellon unit to the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework register in the third update of regulated providers since the July 1 transitional deadline.

With the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA) update on Friday, its interim MiCA register shows 309 licensed crypto-asset service providers (CASPs).

The latest entries include four banking institutions, including BNY SA/NV, the Belgian subsidiary of US banking giant BNY Mellon, and three German banks, alongside digital asset platforms such as BitPay, Coinify and Bleap.

The update comes as regulators continue building out the MiCA framework, which introduced the European Union’s first unified rules for crypto service providers and aims to bring more oversight to the sector.

Germany and Denmark lead latest CASP additions

Germany and Denmark accounted for the largest number of the latest additions, with three new CASPs registered in each country. Bulgaria and Latvia followed with two additions each, while Belgium, Cyprus, Liechtenstein and the Netherlands each added one provider.

The German additions included cooperative financial societies Spar-und Kreditbank Rheinstetten and VR-Bank Augsburg-Ostallgäu, along with Raiffeisenbank Falkenstein-Wörth.

15 new CASPs in the MiCA register update on Thursday. Source: ESMA

Other newly listed providers include: Bulgaria’s Altcoins BG and Digital Assist; Denmark’s SafeLynx Technologies and Januar, a digital asset infrastructure company; and, Latvia-registered providers Bleap and Nodu Digital.

MiCA expansion continues after July deadline

The latest update follows ESMA’s previous register additions after the July 1 deadline, including 14 CASPs added in the regulator’s second post-deadline update, which included major industry companies such as Ripple Payments Europe.

While the CASP roster expanded, ESMA reported no changes to other MiCA-related registers in the latest update, including authorized issuers of asset-referenced tokens (ARTs), e-money tokens (EMTs), and crypto assets, as well as non-compliant entities.

Related: Swiss bank BancaStato launches regulated crypto trading with Sygnum

The continued updates show that MiCA implementation remains an evolving process, with regulators still adding authorized providers as companies complete licensing procedures across European markets.

At the same time, some industry executives warn that the cost of maintaining a MiCA license could push smaller firms out of the market, with Gate Europe CEO Giovanni Cunti saying some licensed companies may struggle to sustain the compliance resources required over the long term.

Magazine: Here’s why the CLARITY Act’s ethics deal may be so hard to reach

“This is the world of fiscal dominance and ultimately will dictate Fed policy. Rates will necessarily need to be kept artificially low and liquidity will need to be provided to help fund the refinancing cycle,” the founders told CoinDesk. “The ‘debasement’ trade was a popular narrative last year but has gone quiet. Yet it’s set to go into overdrive!,” the founders told CoinDesk.

Several observers have raised the alarm over the ballooning debt in recent months.

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok warned that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120% means there is little room to spend more money should a recession arrive. Moreover, the Fed can’t cut interest rates as aggressively as during previous recessions because that would add to inflation and, more importantly, reduce the yield on bonds. The government needs to issue more bonds to fund deficits and those need to offer a high return to draw demand.

“The U.S. has never entered a recession with this little fiscal buffer,” he wrote in a blog post in May.

All this means that if a recession occurs, the pain could be longer-lasting and may trigger demand for assets that fall largely outside of the financial system, such as BTC and cryptocurrencies. That said, since its inception in 2010, BTC has moved largely like a tech stock and not a haven investment.

The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin BTC$65,268.02 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have logged their first three-week inflows streak since early May.

These funds attracted $33.79 million in the week ended July 24. That figure would have been much bigger had it not been for net outflows of around $225.2 million and $240.1 million on July 23 and 24 respectively, according to data tracked by SoSoValue.

These late-week outflows also make the total weekly figure the smallest compared to the previous two weeks of inflows of $197 million and $75.67 million.

The story, therefore, is that institutional demand has returned, but it’s anemic and not as powerful as typically observed during bull runs.

“After May and June’s heavy outflows, July’s repair phase has brought relief, but institutional demand is still cautious,” crypto analytics firm BRN said in a email to CoinDesk.

Bitcoin rallied to a July high of over $66,500 on the Tuesday, before retreating below $64,000 by the end of the week, amid profit-taking and weak action in the stock market with the Nasdaq 100 pulled down by chipmaker stocks, a bellwether for the AI industry.

The dollar heads into a pivotal week trading near 101.80, just off a 15-month high, with the Fed’s July 29 meeting standing as the clear focal point. Markets currently price roughly a 65% chance of a hold, though renewed Middle East escalation has kept a hike back on the table for later this year. Energy remains the wildcard: the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and blockades affecting Persian Gulf shipping lanes have pushed oil higher, reigniting inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed’s messaging.

Adding to the uncertainty, private-sector hiring has slowed for a fourth straight week according to ADP data, even as jobless claims fell to a two-month low, painting a genuinely mixed labor picture. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Congressional testimony offered little directional clarity, reaffirming a commitment to price stability without tipping the committee’s hand.

With the ECB decision now behind markets and flash PMI data already digested, all eyes turn to Wednesday’s Fed decision as the week’s true catalyst, one capable of resolving—or extending—the dollar’s recent indecision.

Technical Analysis of the DXY

The coming week carries real technical weight, with the DXY caught in a hotly contested zone between 100.00 and 102.00. The Fed’s rate decision, and the volatility it brings, could well define the dollar’s path over the near to medium term.

Bullish Scenario

After a rough start to 2026, the DXY rebounded sharply from January’s 96-97 support, gaining roughly 6% since then. Having recently broken and held above the psychological 100.00 level, price now sits supported by both an ascending trendline and the 50-period EMA. A confirmed break above 102.00 would open the path toward 103-104, and eventually 106-107.

Bearish Scenario

The index is currently struggling at the 102.00 resistance. A rejection here, breaking the ascending trendline while respecting the longer-term descending trendline from 2025’s highs, would send price back to retest the critical 100.00 zone—and potentially, on a deeper break, all the way back to the 96-97 support.

With the Fed’s decision now just days away, the dollar finds itself standing exactly where it needs to: at the edge of a decision. Whether the DXY breaks free toward fresh highs or slips back into its earlier struggles, this week’s outcome won’t just move the greenback—it will set the tone for every asset priced against it heading into autumn.

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has pushed back on the idea that the rise of artificial intelligence will reduce the relevance of crypto. In a post on X on Sunday, Armstrong argued that “AI being a megatrend” does not replace crypto—if anything, it increases the need for programmable financial rails that can be used by autonomous software.

Armstrong framed his argument around “agentic finance,” describing Coinbase’s Base network alongside USDC and the company’s x402 payment protocol as key components for machine-to-machine payments. His comments also arrive as the broader crypto industry increasingly markets blockchain networks as payment infrastructure for AI agents.

Key takeaways

• Armstrong says AI agents will drive demand for programmable money, positioning crypto as more—not less—relevant.
• Coinbase’s agentic payments stack centers on Base, USDC, and x402, built for automated stablecoin transfers between applications.
• Chainalysis reported in June that agentic payments on Base via x402 surpassed 100 million transactions within about nine months of tracked activity.
• Regulators and traditional payment systems are still designed around human accounts, while x402 targets payment flows that can be triggered automatically.

Armstrong’s case: AI needs programmable payments

Armstrong’s argument is rooted in how autonomous systems are expected to operate. If AI agents can act independently—making purchases, paying for data, or settling for APIs—then they require a payment mechanism that software can initiate without relying on traditional banking checkout steps.

“AI being a megatrend takes nothing away from crypto,” Armstrong wrote on X, adding that agentic systems will instead create demand for programmable money. The underlying pitch is that blockchain-based payments are better suited to low-friction, automated interactions than systems that assume a human user completes each transaction.

How Base, x402, and USDC fit together

Armstrong’s “AiFi” framing points to a specific infrastructure stack rather than a broad concept. Base launched in 2023 as an Ethereum layer-2 network intended to improve the speed and cost of building onchain applications, with the design aimed at general-purpose use rather than solely AI payments.

In 2025, Coinbase introduced x402, a payment protocol built around the HTTP “402 Payment Required” concept. As Coinbase describes it, x402 enables automated stablecoin payments between software applications, allowing one system to pay another—such as for digital resources—without traditional account-based workflows. In practice, the protocol is intended to make it easier for autonomous agents to complete payments as part of a software interaction.

USDC is one of the stablecoins used within this ecosystem. Launched in 2018 by Circle and supported by the Coinbase-backed Centre Consortium, USDC provides the dollar-pegged unit that enables consistent value transfer for automated payments. Together, Base (execution environment), x402 (payment protocol), and USDC (payment asset) form the core of Coinbase’s current approach to agentic payments.

What Chainalysis measured on Base’s agentic payment flows

Beyond Coinbase’s product narrative, third-party analytics have begun to quantify activity. In a June report, Chainalysis said agentic payments on Base using x402 surpassed 100 million transactions within roughly nine months of activity.

According to Chainalysis, it identified agentic payment activity by tracking x402-related payment flows onchain. The firm stated that transactions worth at least $1 represented 95% of total transferred value, suggesting that the measured activity was not just tiny test transfers.

Chainalysis also reported behavioral differences between agentic payment wallets and the average Base user. It said agentic wallets were typically newer, tended to hold more asset types, and carried smaller balances than the broader user base.

Cointelegraph asked Chainalysis for updated x402 activity figures and additional details on how its methodology works, but the firm had not responded by publication time.

Separately, Cointelegraph had previously noted that agentic payment activity on Base topped 100 million transactions in June, citing the same kind of measurement that Chainalysis described.

Earnings and market attention on Coinbase’s infrastructure strategy

Armstrong’s push for “agentic finance” comes as Coinbase prepares to report second-quarter earnings on Thursday. Yahoo Finance data shows analysts’ average expectations for revenue of $1.29 billion, with sales projected to decline 13.8% compared to the same period last year. Earnings per share are expected to be flat.

While the earnings forecast does not directly measure Base or x402 usage, the timing matters: Coinbase is attempting to position its networks and payment rails as foundational plumbing for a new wave of automated transactions. For investors and builders, the key question is whether agentic payment volumes translate into sustained demand for onchain infrastructure—particularly if more AI-driven services embed payment logic as part of normal operation.

What to watch next is how quickly “agentic” payment flows evolve beyond early activity: updated figures from Chainalysis on x402 usage, whether more stablecoin-based automation moves from experimentation to production, and how clearly Coinbase can connect its infrastructure push to broader business performance. As AI agent adoption grows, the debate is likely to shift from whether crypto is “relevant” to whether crypto-based rails are practical enough to become the default mechanism for machine-initiated payments.