Bitcoin (BTC) should repeat history and put in a bear-market bottom when a classic indicator hits zero, a trader says.

Key points:

• Bitcoin classic two-month stochastic RSI signals are valid this bear market, Max Crypto said.
• The bear market will be over once the indicator reaches zero again.
• RSI divergences provided advance notice of the BTC price rebound beyond $64,000 this month.

Bitcoin stochastic RSI bottom signal “will happen again”

In an X post at the weekend, Max Crypto went on record to forecast the end of the 2026 bear market when the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) hits a new swing low.

“Stoch” RSI is a derivative of RSI, a popular leading indicator, with a greater bias on recent price moves.

“Every time the 2M Stoch RSI had a bullish cross and dropped to 0, $BTC bottomed,” Max Crypto wrote in accompanying commentary. 

“This happened in 2014, 2018, and 2022, and it will happen again.”

BTC/USD two-month chart with stochastic RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Two-month stoch RSI measures 4.81, having dropped into its sub-30 “oversold” zone during March, data from TradingView confirms. Current levels were last observed just over three years ago.

Stoch RSI has already formed a focus for market participants this year, with daily moves previously drawing comparisons to the 2022 bear market. 

In April, crypto trader Quantum Ascend described BTC price history as “playing out nearly perfectly.”

Bear-market RSI cues keep coming

Turning to traditional RSI data, traders continue to look for bullish cues as BTC/USD treads water above $60,000.

Related: BTC price bull market to begin in September? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

On Sunday, trader and investor BitcoinHyper eyed a bullish divergence against the S&P 500.

At the start of June, daily RSI dropped to just 15, marking one out of just six of what trader Osemka later called “extremely powerful selling events.”

“There’s been one case where extreme $BTC RSI (1D at 15) failed to break the lows and only managed to sweep it. That was at the end of accumulation range in 2015,” he continued on Tuesday. 

“I’m mentioning it now since we have also only swept the low on such powerful move down.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Osemka/X

Osemka implied that a deeper RSI retracement could still emerge, marking a price reversal in-line with previous bear markets.

Bitcoin’s return above $64,000 this month, meanwhile, came after bullish RSI divergences across multiple time frames.

A solo Bitcoin miner hit the jackpot and validated a solo block with a single Bitaxe mining rig, marking a rare win that beat massive statistical odds.

The retail Bitcoin miner secured a 3.125 Bitcoin (BTC) block reward, currently worth about $200,000, on Friday at block number 957382, according to blockchain data from mempool.space. 

The miner was using a single Bitaxe mining rig, according to the BTC mining pool Public Pool. The Bitaxe was a budget, lower-power Bitcoin miner that costs less than $200 and has a hashrate of about 1 terahash per second (TH/s), which is a tiny fraction of the global Bitcoin network.

The solo block reward shows that even a sub-$200 investment in a mining rig can lead to a statistically rare payday for retail miners. 

Another solo Bitcoin miner validated a solo block in April, through CKPool’s solo mining service. Earlier in February, another retail miner validated a solo block using rented hashrate from a mining provider, meaning that he didn’t own the physical mining rig that solved the block.

Source: Public Pool

Solo BTC miners bag $4.7 million during the past year

While mining a solo block is statistically rare, this marks the 12th Bitcoin block validated by a hobby-level miner so far in 2026, pushing the past 12 months’ total payouts to more than $4.7 million for retail miners.

Solo block stats, one-year. Source: Bennet.org 

Solo blocks mined increased by 41% year-on-year, as solo miners have validated a total of 24 blocks during the past year, according to solo miner data aggregator Bennet. This brings total rewards paid to solo miners to 75.4 Bitcoin, or $4.7 million, for the past year.

Related: Bitcoin whale moves $188M for first time in 7 years

The average interval for solo Bitcoin blocks stands at 15.2 days, while the longest drought without a successful solo block stands at 58 days.

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Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Fears that artificial intelligence would trigger a wave of catastrophic decentralized finance (DeFi) hacks in what was coined as a “hackpocalypse” have not materialized, according to Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi.

While the incident count grew to a record high, the median size of hacks has dipped below $500,000 this year, down from over $2 million in 2025. Qureshi argued that this shows malicious actors using AI are targeting “small protocols and abandonware” while larger DeFi protocols have fortified themselves against AI’s threat.

Excluding outlier months with large incidents, such as the Bybit hack in February 2025 along with the Drift Protocol and KelpDAO exploits in April of this year, 2026 has still seen less value hacked per month than the previous year, said Qureshi.

The comments come in response to concerns shared by blockchain security platform OpenZeppelin’s founder, Manuel Aráoz, who said that he considers “all of DeFi unsafe,” citing the growing ability of AI coding agents to identify smart contract vulnerabilities. 

Broader industry datasets, which include centralized platforms, wallet compromises and phishing, as well as DeFi exploits, offer a less reassuring picture. In April, crypto hacks surged, resulting in losses of around $644 million, marking an over one-year high last seen in February 2025 when the $1.4 billion Bybit hack pushed monthly losses to $1.46 billion, according to DefiLlama.

Source: Haseeb

Crypto hacks fall 47% in H1, but crypto industry not necessarily safer: CertiK

Losses to cryptocurrency hacks fell 46.8% year-on-year to $1.32 billion in the first half of 2026, but blockchain security company CertiK argued that the Web3 industry’s lower headline losses do not necessarily mean the industry is safer.

Related: Belgian police arrest suspected phishing gang leader tied to $572K theft

While it marks a significant drop in dollar value, last year’s figures were skewed by the $1.4 billion Bybit hack, the largest in crypto history, CertiK told Cointelegraph.

During the second quarter of 2026, over 70% of the losses stemmed from the KelpDAO and Drift Protocol exploits, which were largely attributed to North Korean state-sponsored hackers.

Monthly change in crypto exploit amounts and number of incidents across H1. Source: CertiK 

The data underscores the continued threat that North Korean hackers pose to the crypto industry, having stolen more than $6 billion worth of crypto since 2017, TRM Labs estimated in April. 

Magazine: Does Botanix’s failure prove Bitcoiners don’t care about DeFi?

Coinbase, among others, filled that gap in May 2025. Under x402, a server that wants payment answers a request with a 402 and a price. The client signs a stablecoin transfer, usually USDC, resends the request with the payment attached, and gets the data. The exchange takes seconds and needs no account, no card, and no prior relationship between the two sides.

That is why the AI industry cares. An autonomous agent cannot open a bank account, pass a credit check or sign a SaaS contract, but can sign a transaction. Google has wired x402 into its own agent payments protocol, and Cloudflare ships it in its agent toolkit.

The announcement included no usage figures, though x402 publishes them on its own homepage. The protocol handled about 75 million transactions over the past 30 days, or roughly 29 every second, moving about $24 million between some 94,000 buyers and 22,000 sellers.

That works out to an average payment of about 32 cents, meaning the machine-to-machine thesis works as designed, as no card network can process a such small charges profitably.

Still, $24 million a month is a fraction of what any of x402’s premier members move in a day.

The United Kingdom and United States have agreed to pursue closer coordination on stablecoin regulation, cross-border payments and tokenized financial markets.

The two governments also plan to explore how regulated stablecoins issued in one country could gain access to the other market.

The commitments appear in a joint UK-US statement on stablecoins released on July 14. The statement forms part of recommendations from the Transatlantic Taskforce for Markets of the Future, which the two governments established in September 2025.

UK and US set common stablecoin principles

The two governments said stablecoins can support payments, settlement and capital market transactions when regulators apply proper safeguards. They plan to seek “comparable outcomes for comparable risks and activities” while allowing each country to develop requirements under its own legal framework.

The approach does not require identical regulations. Instead, officials want to reduce unnecessary differences that could block cross-border activity. The governments also said they would avoid rules that impose costs out of proportion to the risks or create unnecessary barriers for new competitors.

As reported by crypto.news, the agreement comes as stablecoin rules remain a major policy issue in Washington. U.S. lawmakers and banking groups continue to debate how digital dollar products should interact with traditional banks and financial markets.

Stablecoins should maintain at least 1:1 backing

The joint statement says stablecoins presented as money should hold at least one dollar or equivalent in high-quality liquid assets for every unit issued. Each country will decide which reserve assets qualify under its domestic framework.

Issuers should also separate reserve assets from their own corporate funds. The governments said holders should receive timely redemptions and clear information about their legal rights. In an issuer failure, holders should have a protected claim on reserves, including priority over other creditors where domestic law allows it.

The principles broadly match the direction of U.S. stablecoin regulation under the GENIUS Act. The Treasury began proposing implementation rules in 2026 as the United States prepares its federal framework for payment stablecoin issuers.

Governments explore cross-border stablecoin access

The UK and US plan to examine a clear pathway that could allow stablecoins regulated in either jurisdiction to reach customers and markets in the other. Any access arrangement would remain subject to each country’s laws and regulatory processes.

Both governments also support fair, risk-based access to banks and other financial services for lawful regulated digital asset companies. They said stablecoins could serve as settlement instruments in securities and commodities markets when firms meet the required safeguards.

The statement does not create automatic mutual recognition or approve any specific stablecoin for cross-border distribution. Regulators still need to develop the legal routes and standards required to put the plan into practice.

Tokenized finance forms part of wider cooperation

The agreement extends beyond stablecoins. Under the broader Transatlantic Taskforce recommendations, the two countries plan to work with a private-sector group to test cross-border uses for tokenized assets over a one-year period.

The SEC, CFTC, FCA and Bank of England will also seek common approaches to areas including tokenized securities settlement and the possible use of stablecoins or tokenized money market funds as collateral at clearing houses.

The recommendations leave both countries free to complete their own regulatory processes. Their stated aim is to reduce cross-border friction while giving regulated stablecoins and tokenized financial products clearer routes between two major global financial markets.

Kalshi says it is being put in an “impossible position” after the US commodities regulator on Tuesday said it was blocking the prediction market platform from canceling trades in Michigan, contradicting a recent state court order.

On June 29, Kalshi was ordered by Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina to cease offering sports betting contracts to Michigan users while a lawsuit over whether Kalshi violated the state’s sports betting laws plays out. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered Kalshi on Tuesday not to comply with the state order and continue operating.

“We are disappointed by this decision and believe it is unfair to Kalshi,” Robert DeNault, the company’s head of enforcement and legal counsel said in a statement on X. 

“We already acted and unwound the trades, as the Michigan court order required us to do. We are being put in an impossible position, looking to follow state court orders that may contradict our federal regulatory obligations. We did not have a choice.” 

Source: Robert DeNault

The conflicting orders highlight an unresolved regulatory divide between the CFTC and nearly two dozen state regulators over which authorities have jurisdiction over prediction markets. The CFTC said Michigan was the first state to attempt to interfere with executed derivatives transactions. 

“Canceling trades that have already been executed is an unprecedented step that risks a cascading effect on the entire marketplace and undermines the certainty in contracting that is a necessary component of a functioning market,” said Selig. 

“The Commission will not allow states or state courts to bully registered entities into violating the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations.” 

A Kalshi spokesperson said it was reviewing the CFTC’s order and considering its next steps, according to Reuters. 

Related: OpenAI quietly adds Kalshi World Cup odds to ChatGPT: Report

Speaking on Fox Business on Friday, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said it is “critical” that the regulator maintains its regulatory authority over prediction markets.

“We’ve sued nine states now, and we’ll continue to sue any state that attempts to impose criminal or civil fines against CFTC-registered exchanges.”

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Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Mizuho has downgraded Circle Internet Group from Neutral to Underperform and cut its price target from $85 to $50, citing competition from Open USD.

The Japanese investment bank said the stablecoin model could pressure the economics behind Circle’s USDC business.

According to a CoinDesk report, analysts led by Dan Dolev said Open USD “could fundamentally alter CRCL’s business model” by changing how reserve income flows to distributors. Circle shares traded at $62.63 when the report was published.

Mizuho cuts Circle’s 2027 earnings outlook

Mizuho raised its estimate for Circle’s distribution and transaction expense ratio in 2027 from 64% to 73%. The bank also lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast from $1.09 billion to $699 million, about 25% below the analyst consensus cited in the report.

The bank said higher interest rates could support reserve income but may not fully offset pressure from changing stablecoin economics. Its concern centers on how much yield Circle can retain after paying distribution partners, including companies that help USDC reach users and financial platforms.

Open USD challenges the existing stablecoin model

Open USD was announced on June 30 by Open Standard, with more than 140 companies participating in its ecosystem. Partners include Coinbase, Mastercard, Stripe and BlackRock. The project says businesses will be able to mint and redeem the stablecoin without fees or artificial volume limits.

Under the model, partners receive reserve earnings after a small management fee covers operating costs. That differs from Circle’s structure, where reserve income is generated before revenue-sharing payments to major distribution partners. As previously reported, Open USD’s announcement raised questions over whether Circle’s own partners could support a rival while continuing to distribute USDC.

Coinbase relationship adds another pressure point

Mizuho also pointed to Circle’s revenue-sharing relationship with Coinbase. The bank said the agreement is expected to come up for renegotiation in August, and Coinbase’s participation in Open USD could give it more leverage in future talks.

A separate warning came from JPMorgan. As reported by crypto.news, the bank cut earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after a new USDC revenue-sharing arrangement with Hyperliquid. JPMorgan said the deal could reduce reserve income retained by both companies even if USDC usage grows.

Circle continues to expand USDC infrastructure

The downgrade comes as Circle expands its regulatory and payments footprint.Circle data showed USDC circulation at about $73 billion as of July 13, down from $77 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Circle also recently received final approval to establish Circle National Trust. The federally regulated entity will initially focus on digital asset custody for Circle and its affiliates, with possible future services for selected institutional clients.

The company is also expanding USDC use in Asia. JCB and Circle announced a pilot covering cross-border treasury transfers and possible merchant payments in Japan. The project will start with JCB’s internal transfers before the companies assess wider retail payment uses.

Mizuho’s downgrade focuses on Circle’s ability to protect margins as stablecoin competition changes how reserve income is shared. Open USD has not proved it can match USDC’s distribution or liquidity, but its partner-led model creates a new pricing benchmark. Circle’s earnings path will depend partly on USDC supply, interest rates and future revenue-sharing agreements.