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Crypto World

Stanford Research Probes Manipulation Risks in Polymarket BTC Contracts

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Crypto Breaking News

Fast-settling prediction markets can change how traders behave in the underlying market. A new research paper by scholars at Stanford University and Singapore Management University argues that Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin prediction contracts created incentives for some participants to manipulate spot prices shortly before settlement—transferring value from less sophisticated traders to those able to exploit the timing.

The study examines short-horizon contracts that settle based on Bitcoin’s price relative to a fixed threshold at the end of each five-minute trading window. Because settlement relies on Chainlink price feeds tied to the end-of-window spot price, the paper concludes that traders have a window of opportunity to influence the reference price immediately before contracts expire.

Key takeaways

  • The paper links Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin contracts to unusual spot-market order-flow spikes immediately before settlement.
  • Researchers observed rapid spot-price reversals consistent with manipulation around the settlement reference point.
  • The study estimates roughly $1.28 million shifted from ordinary traders to manipulators over the sample period.
  • Extending the contract duration from five minutes to 15 minutes “largely eliminated” the effect, suggesting design choices matter.
  • Settlement mechanics—not prediction markets themselves—appear to be the key risk factor, with solutions including longer settlement windows and alternative pricing methods.

Short settlement windows can reward “price chasing”

Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets allow traders to bet whether BTC will finish above or below a predetermined level after five minutes. The contracts settle using Chainlink price feeds that reference Bitcoin’s price at the end of each trading window.

According to the paper, this settlement approach can distort incentives: when the reference price is determined at a specific moment, sophisticated traders may find it profitable to push the spot market in the minutes—and sometimes seconds—leading up to that timestamp. In other words, the act of trading the prediction contract can become coupled to short-term spot-market execution just before settlement.

What the researchers found in order flow and price behavior

To test the claim, the researchers analyzed trading activity around the period when Polymarket introduced these contracts in July 2024. Their focus was on how spot-market dynamics changed before and after the contracts launched.

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The study reports sharp increases in Bitcoin spot-market order flow shortly before settlement, followed by rapid price reversals after the five-minute windows closed. The authors interpret the combination of pre-settlement buying/selling pressure and post-settlement reversal patterns as consistent with settlement-price manipulation rather than normal price discovery.

While manipulation cannot be directly proven from order flow alone, the paper’s reasoning is grounded in the timing: when contracts settle to a price snapshot at the end of a short window, traders can potentially profit by targeting that snapshot rather than forecasting longer-term movement.

How much value may have been transferred—and what reduces the risk

The paper estimates that, during the sample period, the behavior transferred about $1.28 million from “ordinary traders” to “manipulators.” The precise mechanism appears tied to who can influence market prices effectively at the moment of settlement, leaving others exposed to outcomes they did not cause.

Importantly, the authors also report that extending contract durations from five minutes to 15 minutes largely eliminated the effect. That result points to a practical mitigation: the shorter the time between trading and settlement—especially when settlement depends on a single end-of-window price—the more likely it is that incentives align around momentary spot-market tactics.

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The study emphasizes that its findings do not mean prediction markets are inherently vulnerable to manipulation. Instead, the risk seems to stem from settlement design. The researchers highlight potential fixes such as longer settlement windows and alternative pricing methods—for example, time-weighted average prices (TWAP)—which reduce how profitable it is to “hit” a single reference timestamp.

Why this matters beyond crypto regulation

The implications are not limited to decentralized or crypto-native venues. The paper notes that traditional exchanges, including Nasdaq and Cboe, have proposed event contracts tied to asset prices. As prediction markets expand into more regulated financial settings, contract engineering could become a central question for regulators and market designers.

From an investor or trader standpoint, the study suggests that the safest products are not simply those with better liquidity or reputations, but those with settlement logic that limits the link between contract settlement and immediate underlying-market price moves. Readers should therefore watch for how venues specify reference prices—whether they use end-of-window snapshots, TWAP-style measures, or other anti-gaming mechanisms—especially for short-dated contracts.

Meanwhile, legal scrutiny around prediction markets continues to intensify in the US. Earlier this year, multiple states challenged platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket. Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has argued that federally regulated event contracts fall under its “exclusive jurisdiction” rather than state gambling laws. The dispute is now moving through the federal courts, and observers have said conflicting appellate rulings could ultimately require the US Supreme Court to determine whether states or the CFTC have primary authority.

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World Cup momentum lifts prediction market volumes

While the new research focuses on settlement mechanics, the wider sector continues to grow in terms of activity. Prediction markets posted record trading volumes in June as the 2026 FIFA World Cup drove interest across platforms.

According to DefiLlama data cited in the article, Kalshi processed about $9.4 billion in trading volume during June, while Polymarket International handled roughly $4.3 billion. The World Cup winner markets generated more than $5.4 billion in combined trading volume, with Polymarket accounting for about $4.25 billion and Kalshi about $1.2 billion, based on platform-reported figures at the time of writing.

This surge underscores why contract design issues are likely to remain prominent: when volumes rise and markets move from niche speculation to mainstream attention, the economic incentives to exploit structural weaknesses can grow alongside participation.

Going forward, the key question for traders, builders, and regulators is whether venues can scale prediction markets without creating exploitable settlement dynamics—especially for very short-dated contracts. The Stanford and Singapore Management University findings suggest that changing the settlement window length and using price-averaging methods could meaningfully reduce manipulation risk, but market participants will want to see how widely these design changes are adopted and how quickly they translate into cleaner spot-market behavior.

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Base Creator Jesse Pollak Steps Back After Wrong Social Adoption Bets

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Crypto Breaking News

Base creator Jesse Pollak says he is stepping back from running the Base App after acknowledging what he called a “wrong bet” on the role social products would play in the network’s growth. In a Wednesday post on X, Pollak argued that Base’s push toward creator and content tooling failed to deliver the traction needed in areas that markets now reward more strongly—particularly trading activity.

Pollak said Base has since been behind “scaled competitors” in key financial categories, even as it continued to promote prediction markets and perpetuals. He also indicated he will return leadership of the Base App to Coinbase under Jordan Fish (known on X as “Cobie”) while focusing on Base’s underlying blockchain.

Key takeaways

  • Jesse Pollak is stepping back from leadership of the Base App, citing a “wrong bet” on social-led adoption.
  • Pollak says Base fell behind in prediction markets and perpetuals versus larger competitors, despite having native options.
  • Dune Analytics data cited by Pollak shows Base-native prediction market Limitless represented just 0.5% of total monthly prediction-market notional volume in July.
  • DefiLlama rankings cited in the post place Base perpetual DEX Avantis at 18th by reported 30-day notional trading volume.
  • Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong previously acknowledged that “content coins” “didn’t work,” aligning with Base’s earlier shift away from social incentives.

Pollak’s admission: social momentum didn’t translate into market leadership

Pollak’s message frames the Base App leadership change as a course correction. He said he had expected creator, content, and messaging applications to drive adoption, but instead the market “disintegrated completely.” While the exact scope of that “disintegration” wasn’t detailed, Pollak specifically pointed to performance gaps in trading-heavy segments.

He highlighted that Base has perps (citing Avantis) and prediction markets (citing Limitless), yet both were “well behind” competitors that have scaled further. This is a notable change in tone from an earlier strategy that positioned Base around social primitives and engagement—an angle Pollak says ultimately didn’t produce the kind of durable demand Base needed.

What the on-chain data suggests about Base’s prediction and perps

To support his argument, Pollak pointed to analytics and ranking sources. According to Dune Analytics data he shared, Limitless accounted for 0.5% of total monthly notional volume across prediction markets in July. The implication is that while Limitless exists as a Base-native option, it has not yet achieved comparable share versus alternative venues that dominate prediction-market activity.

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On perpetual trading, Pollak referenced DefiLlama data to claim that Avantis ranked 18th by reported 30-day notional trading volume. Put differently, Base’s derivatives presence appears smaller in relative terms than top competitors, reinforcing Pollak’s point that Base’s financial products were not matched by the scale the broader market expects.

For investors and builders tracking L2 competition, this matters because activity in prediction markets and perpetuals is often a proxy for “real” economic usage: liquidity depth, trading frequency, and the composability of DeFi interfaces. Base’s social push may have generated engagement in some form, but Pollak’s own framing suggests the network is now prioritizing where it can win measurable market share.

Base’s earlier pivot away from social incentives

Pollak’s post arrives in the context of changes Base and Coinbase discussed earlier in the year. The article notes that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong acknowledged content coins “didn’t work,” and said, “We messed up, time to turn the page,” on Monday. While Armstrong’s comments were broader than just Base App operations, they echo the same underlying theme: strategies built around content-driven incentives did not produce sustained results.

In February, Base sunset its Creator Rewards program and the Farcaster-powered social feed as part of a broader strategic shift toward tradable assets. Pollak previously described the Base App as an “imperfect Farcaster client,” and the Creator Rewards initiative—launched in July 2025—was designed to turn social activity and engagement into earnings.

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With Pollak now stepping back from the Base App leadership role, the latest move reads less like a surprise and more like the next step in a process: a social-first direction was tried, incentive mechanics were adjusted or removed, and Base increasingly framed its growth around finance and trading primitives.

Focus on global finance, stablecoins, and AI-agent tooling

In his Wednesday post, Pollak said he intends to continue focusing on the Base blockchain while handing Base App leadership back to Coinbase under Jordan Fish. That division of responsibilities signals a longer-term bet on the chain’s core infrastructure rather than on a single consumer interface.

Recent Base product work referenced in the source supports that direction. Last week, Base activated its B20 token standard on mainnet, described as introducing a native framework for stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), and other fungible tokens. In May, Base launched Base MCP (Model Context Protocol), which allows users to manage crypto directly from an AI model’s chat interface and interact with protocols including Morpho, Moonwell, Uniswap, Aerodrome, Avantis, Bankr, and Virtuals. Earlier in April, Base also pointed to system upgrades aimed at preparing for an AI agent economy, tied to a 2026 roadmap emphasizing stablecoins, prediction markets, and RWA tokenization.

Pollak summarized the intent behind these efforts by saying Base aims to become the blockchain for global finance and the place where the world’s money settles over the next century. Whether that ambition translates into competitive leadership will likely hinge on the same metrics Pollak cited: whether Base’s financial venues can pull liquidity and trading volume at scale, not just whether new standards and agent tooling ship.

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Readers should watch how Base responds to the quantified gaps Pollak highlighted—particularly whether Limitless and Avantis can improve their share of prediction and perp volume—and whether Base App leadership changes under Coinbase translate into a clearer, more measurable product strategy.

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Arthur Hayes Buys Back Into Ethereum Weeks After Selling 6,000 ETH at a Loss

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Arthur Hayes Buys Back Into Ethereum Weeks After Selling 6,000 ETH at a Loss

Arthur Hayes bought 1,293 ETH ($2.48 million) on Wednesday, July 15, after receiving 646 ETH ($1.24 million) from Galaxy Digital soon before, on-chain data shows. The moves mark a reversal weeks after he sold 6,000 ETH at a loss.

The reversal also adds to a string of controversial trades this year. Hayes has built a reputation for making bold, high-profile calls on tokens like SYN, HYPE, ZEC, NEAR, and WLD, only to exit or reverse several of them shortly after, drawing scrutiny over his pattern of buying loud and selling quiet.

Two ETH Buys in One Day

Hayes first sent $1.25 million USDC to prime broker FalconX first. Minutes later, Galaxy Digital sent 646.33 ETH ($1.24M) to his wallet, a pattern Onchain Lens flagged as a likely over-the-counter trade.

Not long later, Hayes was seen purchasing 1,293 ETH ($2.48M) which brings his single-day buy total above 1,900 ETH.

Ether trades near $1,920 at publication, up 2.79% over the past day, according to BeInCrypto’s Ethereum price tracker. Ethereum’s market capitalization stands near $231 billion, still ranking second among all cryptocurrencies.

A Track Record of Reversals

The buying spree marks a sharp reversal. Hayes sold 6,000 ETH at an estimated $606,000 loss in late June, just weeks after building that position. Around the same time, he exited Worldcoin, Zcash, NEAR, and Hyperliquid, citing energy prices, AI-linked IPOs, and political uncertainty as risks to crypto markets.

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Hayes also bought $2.2 million worth of Synapse’s SYN token in late June. SYN has since fallen more than 55%, leaving Hayes roughly 28% underwater on a $610,000 unrealized loss.

He has fared better on Bitcoin. His $40,000 bottom prediction from June found an echo weeks later, when a major Chinese mining firm projected a similar floor citing him.

Whether this ETH buy fares better than his SYN trade, or matches Ethereum’s broader July setup, will show in the coming weeks.

The post Arthur Hayes Buys Back Into Ethereum Weeks After Selling 6,000 ETH at a Loss appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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White House Posts ‘TRUMP COIN,’ But Not the Crypto. $TRUMP Dips

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While still within range, the fall in the price of $TRUMP came just as the White House posted on X

The White House shared a nine-second video promoting a new Trump Coin on July 16, but it wasn’t the cryptocurrency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a $1 gold-finish coin honoring President Trump for America’s 250th anniversary.

The announcement caused brief confusion online, since the physical coin shares its name with the TRUMP memecoin. That token traded near $1.56 shortly after the video circulated on X.

Coin Marks America’s 250th Anniversary

The US Mint’s new coin has a gold-like finish, though non-precious metals make up its composition, the Treasury Department said. Workers are minting it in Philadelphia and plan to release it this fall.

“As America commemorates 250 years of independence, the @usmint will begin striking this new $1 gold coin to honor the enduring legacy of liberty and a lasting symbol of patriotism.”
Bessent

Federal law generally bars living presidents from appearing on US currency. However, a 2020 law permitting anniversary-themed designs allowed this release. The Commission of Fine Arts, whose members Trump appointed, approved the design in March.

It follows other Trump-branded currency efforts, including a proposed $250 bill and passports bearing his likeness.

TRUMP Token Slips Near $1.56

The confusion coincided with a dip in the TRUMP memecoin, which dipped toaround $1.56 from $1.59, according to CoinGecko. The token remains more than 97% below its January 2025 all-time high near $73.

While still within range, the fall in the price of $TRUMP came just as the White House posted on X
While still within range, the fall in the price of $TRUMP came just as the White House posted on X. Image Source: Coin Gecko

Some replies beneath the White House X post asked whether the coin carried the same scam concerns as the crypto token.

$TRUMP has struggled for months. Scheduled token unlocks and a wave of retail losses have weighed it down, according to blockchain analytics firm Nansen.

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Whether the physical coin briefly rattled crypto traders or the dip simply reflects the token’s broader decline remains unclear. Either way, the two Trump-branded assets now share more than just a name.

The post White House Posts ‘TRUMP COIN,’ But Not the Crypto. $TRUMP Dips appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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US inflation falls to 3.5% as Bitcoin rebounds toward $65K

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What is a Bitcoin ETF? Spot, futures, and income ETFs explained

U.S. inflation slowed more than expected in June, giving risk assets fresh support after months of pressure from rising energy costs.

Summary

  • US inflation cooled to 3.5% in June, beating forecasts as falling energy prices drove relief.
  • Bitcoin rebounded toward $65,000 after softer CPI reduced immediate pressure for tighter Federal Reserve policy.
  • Core inflation eased to 2.6%, while renewed Middle East tensions keep future energy risks elevated.

The annual Consumer Price Index fell to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, marking its first decline in five months and coming below the 3.8% market forecast.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices fell 0.4% from May, the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Core inflation, which removes food and energy costs, eased to 2.6% annually from 2.9% and remained unchanged during June.

Falling energy prices drive inflation lower

Energy prices remained 15.7% higher than a year earlier, but that was well below the 23.5% increase recorded in May. Gasoline inflation slowed to 26.7% annually, while the broader energy index fell sharply during June as oil markets received temporary relief from easing U.S.-Iran tensions.

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Gasoline prices fell 9.7% during the month, helping offset increases in food and shelter costs. Food prices rose 0.2% from May and 3% from a year earlier. Shelter costs increased 0.1% monthly and remained one of the main areas where prices continued moving higher.

The headline decline also came in much stronger than economists expected. Markets had forecast a 0.1% monthly fall, compared with the reported 0.4% drop. Core CPI also beat expectations for a 0.2% monthly increase and a 2.8% annual gain.

Bitcoin rebounds as inflation fears ease

Bitcoin moved higher following the softer inflation report. As reported, BTC climbed nearly 5% to an intraday high of about $64,830 before trading near $64,560. The move followed a decline below $62,000 as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran weighed on markets.

The softer CPI data reduced immediate concerns that persistent inflation could force the Federal Reserve into tighter monetary policy. U.S. stock futures also moved higher, Treasury yields declined and the dollar weakened following the release. Bitcoin joined the broader recovery in risk assets.

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Before the report, crypto.news reported that Bitcoin was trading near $62,500 as investors weighed higher oil prices and the possibility of another inflation surprise. The June CPI reading removed part of that immediate concern, although energy markets remain a source of uncertainty.

Core CPI gives markets another positive signal

Core inflation falling to 2.6% gave investors another measure of easing price pressure. The reading remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% inflation goal, but its decline from 2.9% showed that the June slowdown was not limited entirely to energy.

The next U.S. CPI report, covering July, is scheduled for Aug. 12. Markets will watch whether lower inflation continues or whether renewed increases in oil and gasoline prices reverse part of June’s decline.

Energy risks remain despite softer June CPI

The inflation report reflects economic conditions during June, when a temporary easing in U.S.-Iran tensions helped lower energy prices. Since then, renewed hostilities have again raised concerns about oil supplies and future transportation costs.

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That leaves Bitcoin and other risk assets exposed to both inflation data and geopolitical developments. June’s softer CPI has eased near-term inflation pressure and supported Bitcoin’s recovery, but the next direction will depend on whether energy prices stay contained and whether the broader decline in core inflation continues.

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Stripe and Advent offer $53B to acquire PayPal in payments mega-deal

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Stripe and Advent offer $53B to acquire PayPal in payments mega-deal

Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have reportedly submitted a joint offer to acquire PayPal for more than $53 billion.

Summary

  • Stripe and Advent reportedly offered $60.50 per PayPal share, valuing the payments company above $53 billion.
  • The proposed acquisition has $50 billion in bank financing, but PayPal has not responded publicly.
  • A deal would combine PayPal’s PYUSD ecosystem with Stripe’s rapidly expanding global stablecoin payment infrastructure network.

The proposed deal would combine two major payments businesses as stablecoins and digital settlement become a larger part of the global financial sector.

Reuters reported that Stripe and Advent offered $60.50 for each PayPal share. The price represents a roughly 28% premium to PayPal’s Tuesday closing price. About $50 billion in bank financing has been committed to support the proposed transaction, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Stripe and Advent seek equal ownership of PayPal

Under the proposal, Stripe and Advent would each hold an equal stake in PayPal rather than dividing the company into separate businesses. The offer was reportedly submitted earlier in July after an initial approach in April.

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PayPal, Stripe and Advent declined to comment on the reported talks. Reuters said PayPal had not responded to the latest proposal when the report was published. The sources also warned that there is no certainty that discussions will result in a completed transaction.

The reported $53 billion valuation comes after a sharp decline in PayPal’s market value from its 2021 peak. The company has faced stronger competition across checkout, digital wallets and alternative payment methods. New CEO Enrique Lores began restructuring the business after taking over in March.

PayPal is reorganizing around payments and crypto

PayPal reorganized its operations in April into three main units covering checkout, Venmo consumer financial services, and payments and crypto. The company reported first-quarter revenue of $8.35 billion, up 7%, while payment volume increased 8% on a currency-neutral basis to about $464 billion.

Its crypto business includes PayPal USD, or PYUSD, a dollar-backed stablecoin issued by Paxos. PayPal says the token is backed by dollar deposits, U.S. Treasuries and similar cash equivalents and can be exchanged for dollars through its platform.

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As previously reported, PYUSD recently expanded natively to Polygon through the network’s Open Money Stack. The integration gives businesses access to stablecoin payments, settlements, fiat conversion and compliance infrastructure through one system.

Stripe has built its own stablecoin infrastructure

A takeover would also bring PayPal’s crypto payment products into a company that has invested heavily in stablecoin infrastructure. Stripe acquired Bridge, a stablecoin platform, in a deal valued at about $1.1 billion, expanding its ability to support digital dollar issuance and payments.

As reported by crypto.news, the Bridge transaction marked one of Stripe’s largest moves into crypto infrastructure. Stripe has since supported stablecoin payment projects across several major technology platforms and blockchain networks.

Stripe was valued at $159 billion in a February employee and shareholder tender offer. That valuation gives the privately held company a larger reported market value than PayPal under the current takeover proposal.

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Potential deal arrives as payments companies seek scale

The reported bid comes during wider consolidation across global payments. Companies are seeking greater scale while expanding into cross-border transfers, business payments, artificial intelligence and blockchain settlement.

Stablecoins have become part of that shift. As previously reported, Stripe, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard and other payment companies have expanded their use of blockchain-based dollars for settlement and money transfers.

A completed takeover could place PayPal’s consumer payments network, Venmo and PYUSD alongside Stripe’s merchant infrastructure and stablecoin technology. However, the proposal remains preliminary. PayPal has not publicly accepted the offer, and the parties have not announced a formal acquisition agreement.

The reported bidders are seeking to move discussions forward before the end of July, according to the original report. Any agreement would still face detailed negotiations and likely regulatory review before completion.

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Base’s Social Momentum Lags in Prediction Markets, Perps Trend

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Crypto Breaking News

Base network creator Jesse Pollak says he is stepping back from leading the Base App, after concluding that an earlier push toward social applications was a “wrong bet” for the Ethereum layer-2’s growth. In a post on X on Wednesday, Pollak argued that Base moved too slowly in areas that are now central to DeFi competition, including prediction markets and perpetual futures.

Pollak also said he will return leadership of the Base App to Coinbase, with Jordan Fish—better known on X as “Cobie”—taking over that role, while Pollak focuses on the Base blockchain itself.

Key takeaways

  • Jesse Pollak said Base’s social-app strategy failed to deliver traction, and admitted the team made a “wrong bet.”
  • Pollak cited Base’s lag behind competitors in scaled prediction markets and perpetual futures despite having offerings in both categories.
  • Base App leadership is expected to shift back to Coinbase, with Cobie (Jordan Fish) resuming oversight of the product.
  • The network’s current emphasis remains on finance-focused use cases such as trading, payments, tokenization, and AI agent tooling.
  • Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently acknowledged that “content coins” “didn’t work,” reinforcing the broader pivot away from social-first narratives.

From social to finance: Pollak’s rationale

Pollak’s comments provide a clearer explanation for the changes Base has been making earlier this year. Base initially positioned itself around social products, aiming to bring crypto to a wider audience through apps and creators. Pollak named examples of those early social thrusts, including Farcaster, Zora, and miniapps, reflecting a belief that engagement and content distribution could drive mainstream adoption.

However, Pollak said the market “disintegrated completely,” and that Base ended up behind in “key areas” that have become more important for users looking for financial utility. In his post, he pointed to Base’s decentralized derivatives presence—mentioning perps, with a nod to Avantis—and prediction markets, noting that both were “well behind scaled competitors.”

For investors and traders, the timing of this self-assessment matters: it signals a second attempt to align the chain’s product priorities with the demand that tends to concentrate liquidity, volume, and user retention in DeFi. Rather than doubling down on social distribution, Pollak frames the next phase around assets and trading-related infrastructure.

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Leadership transition for the Base App

Beyond strategy, Pollak also addressed internal ownership. He said he will return leadership of the Base App to Coinbase, specifically under Jordan Fish (“Cobie”). At the same time, he said he will focus on the Base blockchain itself rather than the consumer-facing application layer.

That split highlights a common tension in L2 ecosystems: whether growth is best driven by consumer app ecosystems or by strengthening on-chain markets and standards that attract liquidity. By stepping back from the Base App, Pollak appears to be aligning resources more heavily toward the underlying chain and the financial primitives that developers can build on top of.

Coinbase’s earlier acknowledgment of “content coins”

Pollak’s post landed just days after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said content coins “didn’t work.” Armstrong described it as a mistake that needed to be corrected, urging a shift in direction.

That acknowledgement aligns with Base’s earlier operational pivot. In February, Base sunset its Creator Rewards program and Farcaster-powered social feed as part of a move toward more tradable assets. Pollak had also previously characterized the Base App as an “imperfect Farcaster client,” underscoring that even when social-oriented features existed, they were not yet meeting the scale demanded by the market.

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The Creator Rewards effort, launched in July 2025, was intended to turn engagement into rewards—making the network’s social activity economically meaningful. Pollak’s latest comments suggest that the rewards model did not overcome the broader competitive advantages held by chains and apps with more established financial depth.

What Base is building now: stablecoins, AI agents, and token standards

While Pollak criticized the earlier social emphasis, Base’s recent technical direction remains focused on tokenization and AI tooling—areas that can support both DeFi and new forms of user interaction.

Last week, Base activated its B20 token standard on mainnet, according to coverage earlier this month. The B20 framework introduces a native approach designed to support stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), and other fungible tokens.

In May, Base launched Base MCP (Model Context Protocol). The tool is intended to let users manage crypto directly from an AI model’s chat interface, and to interact with crypto protocols through the same interface, including Morpho, Moonwell, Uniswap, Aerodrome, Avantis, Bankr, and Virtuals. The practical implication is that AI agents may become a more natural interface layer over existing DeFi functionality, lowering the friction between user intent and on-chain execution.

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Base has also said it is upgrading core systems ahead of an “AI agent economy” as part of a 2026 roadmap. In that context, Base highlighted RWA tokenization, stablecoins, and prediction markets as key growth areas—precisely the categories Pollak now says Base must compete in more effectively.

In his Wednesday post, Pollak said the goal is to position Base as a blockchain for global finance, aiming to be the place where the world’s money settles over the next century. While that statement is aspirational, it clarifies the narrative shift: the network is attempting to anchor itself in financial infrastructure rather than primarily in creator-led engagement.

In parallel with the emphasis on trading and markets, the article noted that Limitless Exchange’s monthly notional volume is only a fraction of larger competitors, citing Dune Analytics. That kind of gap helps explain why Pollak pointed to derivatives and prediction markets as areas requiring faster scaling: if volume and notional activity remain comparatively small, users and liquidity providers have less incentive to route activity through the L2.

Why the pivot could matter next

Base’s latest moves may be best understood as a reallocation of attention toward where DeFi demand is already proven—liquidity, tradability, and execution. What remains uncertain is how quickly Base can close the scale gap in prediction markets and perpetual futures, and whether the B20 token standard and AI agent tooling will translate into measurable user activity rather than just product launches. Readers should watch for evidence of rising volume, broader adoption of stablecoin and RWA tooling, and whether Base App product changes under Cobie translate into renewed momentum.

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Pump.fun unlocks $86M in PUMP as three-year vesting begins

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Pump.fun unlocks $86M in PUMP as three-year vesting begins - 2

Pump.fun has completed its first major team and investor token distribution after a one-year lockup ended.

Summary

  • Pump.fun unlocked 57.279 billion PUMP tokens worth $86.49 million across 121 team and investor wallets.
  • The first distribution follows a one-year lockup and begins a three-year vesting cycle for insiders.
  • Unlocked tokens became transferable, but on-chain movements do not confirm recipients sold them into markets.

On-chain tracking showed 57.279 billion PUMP tokens, valued at about $86.49 million at the time of the transfers, moving to 121 wallets on July 15.

Wu Blockchain reported that the transfers marked the start of a three-year vesting period for team and investor allocations. The event makes a large amount of previously locked PUMP transferable, although wallet distributions alone do not show whether recipients intend to sell.

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Pump.fun unlocks $86M in PUMP as three-year vesting begins - 2

Source: EmberCN

Pump.fun distributes 57.279 billion PUMP

On-chain analyst Yu Jin tracked two large sources behind the distribution. One address released 52.039 billion PUMP worth about $78.58 million, while another released 5.24 billion tokens valued at approximately $7.91 million. The tokens then moved across 121 wallets.

The first distribution represents about 14% of PUMP’s current circulating supply of roughly 400 billion tokens. CoinGecko showed PUMP trading around $0.0016 after the unlock, with the token still recording a double-digit 24-hour gain when checked. The price action shows that an unlock does not automatically result in immediate selling.

Three-year vesting period begins after one-year lockup

The distribution comes one year after Pump.fun launched PUMP through a major token sale.  As previously reported, the project’s original token allocation reserved 20% of supply for the team and 13% for existing investors.

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The latest on-chain data indicates that those allocations have now entered their three-year release period after the initial one-year lockup. The full amount will not necessarily enter circulation at once. Vesting schedules typically release tokens in stages, while the recipients decide whether to hold, transfer or sell their unlocked assets.

Actual distribution follows closely watched PUMP unlock

The event had been on traders’ calendars before the first transfers appeared. As previously reported, scheduled data had pointed to an 82.5 billion PUMP unlock worth about $130 million around the end of the initial cliff. The first observed team and investor distribution instead moved 57.279 billion tokens across 121 wallets.

The difference shows why scheduled unlock figures and on-chain token movements may not always match on a specific day. Unlock calendars track when tokens become eligible for release, while blockchain transfers show when assets actually move between addresses. Further distributions may therefore remain possible during the wider vesting cycle.

PUMP supply pressure meets strong market activity

The unlock adds new potential supply at a time when PUMP continues to see active trading. CoinGecko recorded more than $100 million in 24-hour volume when checked, with the token’s market capitalization near $650 million and around 400 billion tokens listed as circulating.

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Pump.fun has also used token buybacks to reduce available supply. Earlier crypto.news coverage tracked the program after it began buying PUMP from the market in 2025. The latest unlock creates the opposite supply force by making previously restricted team and investor allocations transferable.

The key question for the market is how recipients handle the newly available tokens. Distribution to 121 wallets does not prove that 57.279 billion PUMP has entered exchanges or been sold. Further wallet movements and exchange deposits would provide clearer evidence of whether the unlock is creating direct selling pressure.

With the one-year lockup now over, PUMP has entered a longer period of scheduled team and investor vesting. Traders will now watch subsequent distributions, exchange inflows and trading volume as more allocated tokens become available over the next three years.

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TeraWulf stock falls after New York pauses new data center permits

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TeraWulf stock falls after New York pauses new data center permits

TeraWulf shares have dropped more than 7% after New York ordered a one-year pause on new environmental permits for large-scale data centers.

Summary

  • TeraWulf shares fell more than 7% after New York paused new environmental permits for large data centers.
  • The company said its Lake Mariner and Lake Hawkeye projects are not affected by the governor’s executive order.
  • TeraWulf continues expanding its AI business after signing a 20 year Anthropic lease expected to generate about $19 billion in contracted revenue.

According to an executive order signed by New York Governor Kathy Hochul on Tuesday, the state will temporarily stop issuing new environmental permits for certain large data center projects while regulators prepare a statewide framework to assess their environmental impact.

The order gives the Department of Public Service up to one year to complete a Generic Environmental Impact Statement, which will establish standards for future data center developments. The governor’s office said the review will examine electricity demand, water use and quality, and air quality before the moratorium is lifted.

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Alongside the executive order, Hochul said she is also pursuing legislation to remove sales tax exemptions currently available to large data centers across New York.

Investors reacted quickly to the announcement. TeraWulf’s Nasdaq-listed shares closed down 7.08% at $19.41 on Tuesday.

Despite the market reaction, TeraWulf said the order does not affect its existing operations or development timeline in the state.

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Paul Prager, TeraWulf’s founder and chief executive officer, echoed that view in a post on X, saying the company is evaluating on-site power generation for the Lake Hawkeye project, which he said aligns with the governor’s priorities for new electricity generation.

AI business continues to expand

While its New York projects remain unchanged, TeraWulf continues to grow its artificial intelligence and high-performance computing business.

Last week, the company signed a 20-year lease agreement with Anthropic for its Justified Data campus in Hawesville, Kentucky. TeraWulf said the agreement is expected to generate about $19 billion in contracted revenue over its full term.

As crypto.news previously reported, the company is also preparing to raise about $3.5 billion through leveraged loans and high-yield bonds to finance construction of the Kentucky AI campus. Bloomberg reported that Morgan Stanley is expected to lead the financing, although final terms have not been announced.

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According to TeraWulf, the Kentucky facility will support about 401 megawatts of critical computing capacity, with initial operations expected in the second half of 2027 and full deployment planned for early 2028.

The company’s latest financial results also show how its revenue mix is changing. During the first quarter of 2026, TeraWulf reported $21 million in high-performance computing lease revenue, exceeding digital asset mining revenue of just under $13 million for the first time. Total quarterly revenue stood at $34 million, compared with $34.4 million a year earlier.

TeraWulf has said its AI infrastructure business is designed to provide more predictable contracted income while continuing to use its existing power and data center assets developed during its bitcoin mining operations.

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Ark Invest buys $13.9M in Circle shares while trimming Robinhood stake

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Ark Invest buys $13.9M in Circle shares while trimming Robinhood stake

Ark Invest has expanded its exposure to Circle and Block while cutting its Robinhood position, adding nearly $15.4 million worth of shares across the three companies.

Summary

  • Ark Invest bought nearly $13.9 million worth of Circle shares and added to its Block position.
  • The investment firm sold about $3.15 million worth of Robinhood shares as the stock moved higher.
  • The latest trades continue Ark’s recent pattern of buying selected stocks after price declines while rebalancing portfolio holdings.

According to Ark Invest’s latest daily trading disclosure, the investment firm purchased 220,012 shares of Circle Internet Group across its ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). Based on Tuesday’s closing price of $63.22, the acquisition was worth about $13.9 million.

The same filing showed Ark also bought 19,029 shares of Block Inc. through ARKW and ARKF. Valued at roughly $1.52 million using Tuesday’s closing price of $79.99, the purchase came as the blockchain-focused fintech company ended the session up 1.61%.

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On the selling side, the firm trimmed its Robinhood Markets position by 27,742 shares. With Robinhood closing 3.27% higher at $113.45 on Tuesday, the sale was valued at about $3.15 million.

Circle purchase comes after recent price slide

Circle edged up 0.35% on Tuesday but remained down 24.17% over the past month after a sharp decline earlier in July following the launch of the Open USD stablecoin project.

The recent weakness has divided analysts. While some continue to hold a positive view on the stablecoin issuer, Mizuho downgraded Circle to Underperform from Neutral and lowered its price target to $50 from $85. The brokerage said competition from Open USD could pressure Circle’s business over time.

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The latest purchase also extends a pattern seen in recent weeks. On June 26, Ark increased its holdings in Circle, Coinbase, Bullish, and Robinhood after all four stocks finished the session lower, adding about 9,264 Circle shares, 9,014 Coinbase shares, 9,136 Bullish shares, and 35,023 Robinhood shares as prices weakened.

Earlier portfolio updates showed a similar approach. Ark bought roughly $18.4 million worth of Coinbase after the exchange operator’s shares had fallen for nearly a month, accumulated more than $4.4 million of Bullish stock during a multi-session decline, and added about $32.5 million worth of SpaceX following a drop of more than 16% from its post-listing peak.

Unlike the latest Circle purchase, the Robinhood transaction moved in the opposite direction. The brokerage’s shares gained more than 3% on Tuesday, and Ark reduced its position after previously buying additional Robinhood shares during periods of weakness.

Ark manages its exchange-traded funds under a portfolio rule that limits any single holding to no more than 10% of a fund’s assets. As stock prices change, the firm periodically rebalances positions to keep those weightings within its target range.

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Ripple burns another 10M RLUSD as supply falls 20% from peak

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ETH liquidation heatmap flags near‑$2,000 “trapdoor” for leveraged longs

Ripple has burned another 10 million RLUSD tokens, extending a run of treasury operations that has reduced the circulating supply of its dollar-backed stablecoin. 

Summary

  • Ripple burned another 10 million RLUSD as circulating supply fell roughly 20% from May’s peak.
  • Repeated treasury burns reduced RLUSD supply, though redemptions do not automatically signal weaker stablecoin adoption.
  • Ripple continues expanding RLUSD through AI payments and growing XRP Ledger trading and settlement activity.

Blockchain data reported on July 14 showed the tokens moving from the RLUSD Treasury to a null address, permanently removing them from circulation.

The latest operation follows 10 million-token burns recorded on July 13, twice on July 10, and once each on July 9, July 8, July 7 and July 6. Ripple also minted 20 million RLUSD on July 6. The sequence shows active supply management as redemptions and new issuance change the amount available onchain.

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RLUSD supply falls from its late-May peak

RLUSD’s market capitalization now stands near $1.52 billion. That is about $380 million below its late-May peak near $1.9 billion, representing a decline of roughly 20% in circulating value.

A lower stablecoin supply does not automatically show weaker adoption. Fiat-backed stablecoins expand when issuers create tokens against new dollar deposits and contract when holders redeem tokens for cash. Burns therefore record the removal of redeemed supply rather than directly measuring transaction demand or user growth.

Repeated burns follow active treasury management

The latest burn adds to several similar transactions within little more than one week. According to the reported Ripple Stablecoin Tracker data, at least 80 million RLUSD has been burned since July 6, while 20 million tokens were minted during the same period.

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Those transactions show how quickly stablecoin supply can change when large holders redeem or issue tokens. The movements do not explain who redeemed the RLUSD or why. Ripple has not publicly tied the recent burns to one customer, market event or change in its wider stablecoin strategy.

Ripple expands RLUSD use beyond basic payments

The supply contraction comes as Ripple continues adding new uses for RLUSD. As per report, Ripple joined the x402 Foundation as a Premier Member as the Linux Foundation moved the open payment standard under formal governance.

The initiative focuses partly on machine-to-machine payments. XRP and RLUSD can support payments by AI agents through x402 on the XRP Ledger, giving autonomous software a way to settle transactions using blockchain-based assets.

Ripple also introduced new tools aimed at developers building AI payment applications. As previously reported, the company launched the XRPL AI Starter Kit in June, allowing developers to build software agents that can send and receive payments.

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The company is positioning RLUSD as one settlement asset that developers can use for those transactions. The work adds another potential use case for the stablecoin beyond exchange trading and traditional cross-border transfers.

RLUSD remains active across the XRP Ledger

Recent supply reductions also follow a period of growing RLUSD activity on the XRP Ledger. Evernorth said RLUSD pairs had generated more than $2.5 billion in XRP Ledger trading volume since launch.

The figures included about $900 million in volume from the RLUSD/XRP pair over six months. Evernorth also reported that the XRP Ledger held slightly more than half of RLUSD’s circulating supply by late June.

That distribution can change as minting, burning and cross-chain transfers continue. However, the figures show that RLUSD remains active across trading and settlement markets even as its total circulating supply falls from its May peak.

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Ripple has also continued expanding RLUSD through institutional and payment partnerships. A coverage showed that the company is increasingly connecting the stablecoin with automated payment infrastructure and emerging machine-to-machine transaction systems.

The latest 10 million RLUSD burn reflects another reduction in outstanding supply while Ripple continues building new payment and settlement uses. The market will now watch whether the current burn cycle continues or whether new minting resumes as demand changes.

At about $1.52 billion in market capitalization, RLUSD remains below its May peak. Future treasury movements could provide a clearer picture of whether the recent contraction represents a temporary redemption cycle or a longer period of lower circulating supply.

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