Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble has warned that an AI bubble crash could cause 17 times more damage than the dot-com collapse, which erased about $5 trillion from the Nasdaq.

According to Polymarket, the probability of an AI bubble bursting in 2026 has climbed above 17% after recently falling from 30% to 14%. Contracts using different resolution criteria placed the likelihood between 16% and 24% as traders weighed falling technology shares, revenue concerns, and weakness across global markets.

Noble tied his forecast to the large sums flowing into AI infrastructure, arguing that the financial fallout could extend far beyond technology companies if expected returns fail to arrive.

“The fallout from this could really be much more significant,” Noble said while discussing the rise in AI capital spending.

AI bubble odds have rebounded above 17%

Fresh pressure on semiconductor and technology shares has added to those concerns. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday as AI-related anxiety spread from Asian markets, where SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics dropped almost 9%.

Both South Korean chipmakers plan to spend billions of dollars on semiconductor plants and AI capacity. Their declines came as investors questioned whether the revenue generated by AI services would justify the industry’s expanding infrastructure bill, according to the report.

IBM has added to the unease after its shares suffered their steepest daily fall since 1968, dropping almost 25% earlier this week. Market data cited in the report showed IBM closing another 2.7% lower at $211.20 on Wednesday, taking its decline over several sessions past 26%.

In its warning, IBM said spending on AI infrastructure was pulling corporate budgets away from software, contributing to weaker-than-expected revenue growth. The selloff erased tens of billions of dollars from IBM’s market value and weighed on other software and information technology stocks, according to the report.

A draft U.S. Treasury Department report has also examined how an AI downturn could move through the economy. Drawing on research from the University of Texas at Austin cited by NOTUS, the report found that AI companies have become more closely linked to the U.S. economy than internet companies were during the dot-com period.

Under the report’s downside scenario, disappointing productivity or profits could hurt private credit, chipmakers, cloud providers, electric utilities, and companies financing data centers. The Treasury did not predict an imminent crash, but it listed electricity shortages, financing limits, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions among the risks facing the sector.

Cash demands could expose inflated AI valuations

Ray Dalio has separately argued that liquidity, rather than weak technology, could break the AI boom. During a television interview reported by Bloomberg, the Bridgewater Associates founder explained that investors often mistake rising asset values for money they can readily spend.

Dalio used private companies to illustrate the risk: a business can receive a billion-dollar valuation after raising far less in actual capital, but shareholders cannot use that paper wealth without selling. In his assessment, stress would emerge if many investors attempted to turn those valuations into cash at the same time.

Bernstein and Cummings have pointed to another pressure building beneath the boom. In a recent Substack post, the economists wrote that the AI bubble was “still inflating,” while technology investment had reached nearly 5% of U.S. GDP, above levels recorded during the dot-com era.

Their analysis also found that large technology companies were committing enough capital to AI projects to reduce their cash reserves. Combined with Noble’s warning and Dalio’s liquidity concerns, those figures leave investors focused on whether AI earnings can catch up with the money already committed to the sector.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has challenged Wall Street’s projected $700 billion AI spending wave by arguing that Bitcoin offers protection against inflation that artificial intelligence cannot provide.

On X, Zhao presented the difference between the two investment themes in a single line: “AI is great, but it does not protect you against inflation. Bitcoin does.”

CZ’s comment comes as investors weigh Bitcoin’s fixed supply against the rapid flow of capital into AI infrastructure. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expects AI investment to reach $725 billion this year, while BlackRock executives see rising government debt and currency concerns strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term case.

Bitcoin’s case rests on fiscal pressure

According to BlackRock digital assets chief Robert Mitchnick, investors have recently paid less attention to Bitcoin as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded heavy outflows. Mitchnick believes that trend could reverse if concerns about U.S. borrowing and currency debasement intensify.

“And the more fear there is over the borrowing level and the risk of money printing, that is ultimately the most important, I think fundamental driver ahead.”

Bitcoin recently traded near $65,000 after recovering from an earlier decline. However, the cryptocurrency remained well below its October 2025 record of more than $126,000, which was reached during a period of strong inflows into BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF.

CZ’s inflation argument follows the same monetary case outlined by Mitchnick. While AI companies depend on future revenue from heavy capital spending, Bitcoin supporters view the asset’s limited supply as protection against the loss of purchasing power caused by monetary expansion.

Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble has raised a separate concern about the amount of money entering AI infrastructure. As reported by crypto.news, Noble warned that an AI crash could cause 17 times more damage than the dot-com collapse, which erased about $5 trillion from the Nasdaq.

“The fallout from this could really be much more significant,” Noble said while discussing the rise in AI capital spending.

AI spending keeps Wall Street divided

Despite those warnings, Dimon remains optimistic about AI because of the large investments moving through the industry and the strength of the U.S. economy. The JPMorgan chief described the spending cycle as difficult to stop while comparing it to a wave gathering force.

“We’re in a bull market. It’s like a little tsunami. When that kind of thing happens, it’s very hard to stop.”

Dimon has repeatedly criticized Bitcoin in previous years, although he has recently expressed concern about government borrowing and geopolitical risks over the next several years.

Polymarket traders have also assigned a meaningful chance to an AI downturn. According to the prediction market, one contract placed the probability of an AI bubble bursting in 2026 above 17% after the odds previously dropped from 30% to 14%. Other contracts using different settlement rules showed probabilities ranging from 16% to 24%.

Former White House economists Jared Bernstein and Ryan Cummings have added to the caution around AI valuations. Writing on their respective Substacks, they described the bubble as “still inflating” and argued that corporate AI spending is reducing cash reserves while technology investment consumes a larger share of U.S. gross domestic product than during the dot-com era.

Within BlackRock, Rick Rieder has indicated that the asset manager plans to reduce exposure to companies directly spending on AI while increasing holdings in businesses positioned to profit from AI demand. Bitcoin miner TeraWulf fits that second category after signing a 20-year agreement to host AI data-center infrastructure for Anthropic.

The U.S. Senate has adopted a resolution opposing executive clemency for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, underscoring bipartisan political pressure after his fraud conviction connected to the collapse of the crypto exchange.

In a unanimous-consent vote, senators approved a simple, nonbinding measure—S. Res. 772—stating that Bankman-Fried should not receive executive clemency, according to a Wednesday post by the Senate Press Gallery on X.

Key takeaways

• The Senate passed S. Res. 772 by unanimous consent to oppose any federal clemency for Sam Bankman-Fried.
• The resolution is nonbinding and cannot stop a presidential pardon or other executive action.
• The measure follows Bankman-Fried’s request for clemency from President Donald Trump.
• Bipartisan support expanded as additional senators joined as cosponsors, including Bernie Moreno.
• Prediction markets currently price a pardon at less than 1%, despite attracting meaningful trading activity.

Senate resolution signals bipartisan opposition

S. Res. 772 was introduced on June 17 by Senator Ruben Gallego, with Senator Cynthia Lummis listed as a cosponsor. The resolution explicitly opposes any form of federal clemency for Bankman-Fried, including a presidential pardon or a commutation of sentence.

As a simple Senate resolution, it does not require approval from the House or the president and does not carry the force of law. The Senate’s own “Types of Legislation” guide explains that this kind of measure is distinct from legislation and therefore cannot compel or block executive action.

At the time of publication, Congress.gov had not yet reflected the latest floor action for the resolution. However, the Senate Press Gallery’s post indicates that the Senate has now agreed to the measure.

Support for the resolution is also bipartisan. Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio joined as a cosponsor on Tuesday, adding additional Republican backing to a proposal initially led by a mix of senators from different parties.

Why the Senate’s move matters—and what it can’t do

While S. Res. 772 cannot prevent the president from granting clemency, it functions as a public signal of political resistance inside the legislative branch. The Senate resolution affirms lawmakers’ commitment to “the rule of law” and the integrity of the U.S. financial system in the wake of Bankman-Fried’s conviction.

Bankman-Fried was convicted on fraud and conspiracy charges tied to the 2022 collapse of FTX. He was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison in March 2024.

In June 2026, speculation about a possible pardon intensified after Bankman-Fried sought clemency from President Donald Trump, according to earlier reporting from Cointelegraph on his application. The Department of Justice’s pardon and clemency case-status records also list the clemency request as pending, using the case number shown in the DOJ interface.

For investors and participants in crypto markets, political outcomes like clemency don’t directly change blockchain technology or protocol rules. But they can influence broader regulatory and enforcement expectations—especially in high-profile cases that have become benchmarks for how U.S. authorities treat major exchange failures.

Market pricing suggests a pardon is unlikely

Even as the Senate moved to oppose clemency, prediction markets have largely discounted the probability that Bankman-Fried will receive a pardon. On Polymarket, traders have assigned less than a 1% chance that President Trump will pardon Bankman-Fried by July 31, according to the market listing referenced in the original reporting.

Despite the low odds, the market has pulled in more than $734,000 in trading volume, indicating that while most traders appear skeptical, there is still substantial interest in the possibility of an executive decision.

That split—very low probability on price, but meaningful volume in activity—often points to traders using the market to express scenarios they consider possible but not likely. What remains uncertain is whether clemency processes will advance to a decision and, if so, whether any final action will align with the Senate’s stated position.

What to watch next

Readers should watch the Department of Justice’s clemency case status for any updates and monitor further legislative developments, since S. Res. 772 cannot block a presidential pardon but may affect political pressure around any eventual executive decision.

Robinhood’s newsroom called its new blockchain, Robinhood Chain, “AI-native and purpose-built for real-world assets.” By the end of week one, those assets — mostly memecoins — totaled roughly $13 million. But those memecoins keep dying.

By midday Thursday, a memecoin called MIZUKARA had gone to zero on Robinhood Chain, on roughly $67 million of trading volume.

It was one of dozens of MIZUKARA pools deployed in under a day. Each fresh incarnation stepped over the corpse of the last.

None of this was in the pitch. Robinhood launched the chain at a London event on July 1, pitching it for tokenized stocks for customers in more than 120 countries.

The next morning, CEO Vlad Tenev told CNBC, “If an asset is not tied to an underlying utility, it’s not a productive asset. What’s the benefit of making a million different memecoins?”

The market then spent a few days actually using it. On July 7, Tenev posted his revision: “While we’re building robinhood chain to be the best chain for RWA … it works great for memes too.”

Memecoin promoters showed up, and he couldn’t stop them.

Two days later he declared, “Robinhood Summer is here,” boosting a colleague’s tally of 17 million transactions and more than $1 billion in DEX volume.

Robinhood Summer lasted two days

The boom in Robinhood Chain memecoins ran through NOXA, a launchpad responsible for some 60,000 tokens, more than three-quarters of everything deployed on the chain.

NOXA collected more than $12 million in fees in two weeks.

Yet that same Saturday morning, NOXA complained that bots were “spamming and copying new tokens every hour” and switched off its own token deployer.

Two days later, its website went dark; NOXA blamed a Cloudflare issue. It also burned 40% of its own token supply.

By July 14 it had resurfaced as a bare-bones page, announcing, “People loved the cat, it has been liberated,” and handed 100% of ongoing trading fees to token creators.

Some traders called the exit a soft rug, crypto slang for a team that walks away without formally stealing anything. A Binance Square message board user posted a post-mortem, finding no direct evidence of the revenue-split dispute rumored to be behind it.

NOXA’s own explanation reads, “DeFi summer is still happening.” It probably isn’t.

T. Rowe Price has brought what it said is the industry’s first actively managed multi-token spot crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) to the market.

The T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF (TKNZ) began trading on Thursday, giving investors exposure to a portfolio of crypto assets rather than a single token. The launch marks a milestone for the Baltimore-based asset manager, which oversees $1.9 trillion in assets, as it expands its product lineup into digital assets.

Unlike the spot bitcoin BTC$64,229.33 and ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds that have dominated the market over the past two years, TKNZ is designed to hold a diversified basket of cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, ether, BNB, XRP, solana (SOL) and Hyperliquid (HYPE), among other digital assets.

The fund also differs from most crypto investment products because it is actively managed. Instead of tracking a fixed index, portfolio managers can adjust allocations based on market conditions, research and risk assessments. T. Rowe Price said the strategy is intended to capture changes in market leadership and momentum as capital rotates among different cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s bounce lost momentum on Thursday as weakness spread through US tech stocks, muting broader risk-asset enthusiasm. The move followed a market-wide reaction to cooler inflation data earlier in the week, which had helped push equities and BTC higher before traders began trimming positions.

According to TradingView, BTC/USD was trading around $64,500, about 1.5% lower than its three-week highs from the prior day. While crypto initially benefited from the inflation-driven optimism, Thursday’s selloff in high-growth stocks helped cool the appetite for additional upside.

Key takeaways

• BTC/USD hovered near $64,500 after failing to extend gains from the previous day’s three-week highs.
• Lower US inflation expectations supported early risk-on moves, but tech stocks turned into a drag on Thursday.
• Market commentary points to “rejection” behavior near key technical areas, including a major moving average zone.
• Analysts highlighted potential upside limits tied to anchored volume metrics and prior peak areas.

Inflation relief fades as US tech stocks pull back

The latest dip in Bitcoin’s momentum came alongside broader equity rotation. Earlier, both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) had shown weaker-than-expected readings in June, according to the reporting referenced from Cointelegraph’s prior market coverage about inflation coming in cooler. Those data points helped lift both equities and crypto at first.

However, Thursday brought a reversal in tech leadership. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the extent of the drawdown in Micron Technologies, noting the stock was down more than 30% from its June 22 record high after falling sharply on the day, an observation it attributed to market action tracked via TradingView.

Kobeissi further pointed to retail investors taking profits after a strong tech run. In an X post, it cited sales activity around major single stocks—specifically naming Tesla and Apple—and said retail turnover in single stocks had risen to a record $370 billion, up from $220 billion earlier in 2026. The underlying takeaway for crypto traders is straightforward: when speculative equity flows cool, Bitcoin often feels it through correlation and sentiment.

Earlier Cointelegraph coverage had also framed the backdrop as Bitcoin speculators locking in gains after local highs, reinforcing the idea that Thursday’s hesitation wasn’t happening in isolation. When investors are already booking profits in both crypto and tech, breakouts tend to require more sustained confirmation.

BTC price action: traders focus on “rejection” near overhead resistance

With momentum easing, attention shifted from “breakout” narratives to whether BTC could hold above meaningful technical levels. Commentator Exitpump referenced an anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) level tied to Bitcoin’s advance toward $82,000 in early May, arguing that a retest of that area could cap the rebound and increase the odds of further selling pressure.

Exitpump’s thesis was that price would likely revisit the AVWAP from the 82K top that preceded a strong local downtrend. In their words to X followers, such a retest “should cap the upside and give stronger rejection.” The practical implication for traders is that the market may be transitioning from trend-following to range-bound behavior, with participants watching specific supply zones where prior demand gave way.

Separately, trader and analyst Rekt Capital said BTC/USD was showing early signs of rejection from the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) around $65,900. The emphasis on that level matters because long-term moving averages often act as “decision points” where trend narratives either resume or fail—especially when liquidity thins or risk appetite wobbles.

Rekt Capital also linked the current market rhythm to an earlier bear-market pattern observed in 2022. According to the same commentary, the timing of the next macro bottom would not arrive until later in the year, suggesting that near-term weakness may not automatically signal the end of the broader cycle—just a pause or retracement within it.

What to watch next: whether BTC can reclaim key technical levels

For now, the market’s immediate question is whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the technical areas being cited—particularly the 50-month EMA region near $65,900 and the AVWAP-related zone tied to the $82,000 peak. If selling persists while equities remain volatile, BTC’s rebound could stay capped; if tech stabilizes and risk appetite returns, the “rejection” talk may fade quickly.