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Gold Prices Sink 1.41% Below the Key $4,000 Mark as Stronger Dollar and Fed Rate Fears Weigh on Bullion

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Gold

Gold prices fell sharply Thursday, dropping $56.95, or 1.41%, to $3,990.63 an ounce, pulling the precious metal below the closely watched $4,000 threshold as a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy weighed on the traditional safe-haven asset.

The decline marked a notable shift after gold had spent much of the week trading in a narrow range just above $4,000, with prices hovering around $4,050 to $4,070 an ounce earlier in the session as investors weighed a mix of softer inflation data against escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran. Gold futures had opened Thursday at $4,068.90 per troy ounce, up 0.4% from Wednesday’s close, before the metal’s price steadily eroded through the trading day.

The pullback came even as geopolitical risk in the Middle East remained elevated. The United States has continued striking Iranian military sites for a fifth consecutive day, with the back-and-forth exchanges between the two countries leading once again to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the reimposition of a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply has historically moved through the strait, and the renewed military escalation has kept energy markets on edge even as the U.S. has said it remains open to negotiations aimed at reopening the waterway.

Despite that backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, which would typically support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, Thursday’s price action instead reflected the dominant influence of shifting interest rate expectations and a firmer dollar. A batch of stronger domestic economic data released Thursday, including a jump in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s regional manufacturing index to 41.4 for July and a decline in weekly jobless claims to 208,000, added to the case that the U.S. economy remains resilient, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the months ahead.

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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly signaled a cautious, inflation-focused stance in recent public remarks, reaffirming that the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation. That messaging has kept markets guessing about the central bank’s next move, with the Fed having held its benchmark rate steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its June meeting in a unanimous 12-0 vote. The Fed’s so-called dot plot, which tracks individual policymakers’ rate projections, revealed a divided committee: of the 18 officials who submitted projections, nine indicated they expect at least one rate increase before year-end, eight projected no change, and just one projected a rate cut. Notably, Warsh himself did not submit a projection, a decision widely interpreted as a deliberate signal of his own uncertainty about the path ahead.

Market pricing for the Fed’s upcoming meetings has fluctuated in recent days alongside incoming economic data. As of Thursday, traders had scaled back expectations for a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, with the implied probability falling to around 44%, down from about 50% a day earlier, according to data tracked by Trading Economics. That shift followed Wednesday’s producer price report, which showed U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in June for the first time in nearly a year, driven largely by lower energy costs, while core producer prices rose a softer-than-expected 0.2%. That report followed Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected consumer inflation data, both of which had initially helped support gold prices earlier in the week by easing concerns over additional Fed tightening.

Even so, the market continued to price in a meaningful chance of further rate increases given the inflationary pressure created by rising oil prices tied to the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the metal pays no yield, making it less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets like Treasury bonds when borrowing costs rise.

Thursday’s decline adds to a broader pullback gold has experienced since reaching a record high earlier this year. The metal’s price has fallen roughly 28% from its January peak amid a more hawkish shift in Fed rate expectations, even as several of the structural forces that drove gold’s earlier rally, including sustained central bank buying, ongoing fiscal expansion concerns and reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar by foreign central banks, remain largely intact. China’s central bank has continued its extended gold-buying streak, a trend analysts have cited as providing a longer-term floor for prices even amid short-term volatility.

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Wall Street forecasters have adjusted their outlooks for gold accordingly. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 price target for gold to $4,900 in June, down from a prior forecast of $5,400, citing the shift away from anticipated rate cuts and fading demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds. The bank has said that if the Federal Reserve does ultimately deliver a rate hike, gold prices could fall further, potentially toward the $4,400 range by year-end. JPMorgan, meanwhile, has set a more conservative fourth-quarter target of $4,500. Both banks, despite the downward revisions, have maintained that gold’s longer-term structural case remains intact given continued central bank demand and broader concerns about fiscal deficits weighing on confidence in paper currencies.

The pullback in gold was echoed in markets overseas. In India, one of the world’s largest gold consumers, futures contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange fell alongside international prices Thursday, with the benchmark contract dropping roughly half a percent in early trading before extending losses further into the session. Silver prices also declined in tandem with gold across both international and Indian markets.

With the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting scheduled for July 28-29, investors are likely to remain highly sensitive to incoming economic data in the weeks ahead, particularly inflation readings and any further developments in the Strait of Hormuz conflict that could shift the delicate balance between safe-haven demand and rising Treasury yields that has largely defined gold’s trading pattern throughout July.

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July 16, 2026 Puzzle Number 1,131 Solutions, Hints and Categories Explained

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Nancy Guthrie

Thursday’s edition of The New York Times’ Connections puzzle sent players hunting through skincare routines, shades of black, precision-related terms and a cluster of tricky two-word phrases before the full board came together. Puzzle number 1,131, edited by Wyna Liu, followed the game’s usual color-coded structure, moving from its most straightforward grouping to its most deceptive.

Connections challenges players to sort 16 words or phrases into four hidden groups of four, with each group tied to a shared theme. The categories are ranked by difficulty and color-coded accordingly: yellow for the most straightforward, green for moderately tricky, blue for more abstract connections, and purple for the hardest group, which frequently leans on wordplay or double meanings. Players are allowed four mistakes before the puzzle ends, and the game, launched by the Times in June 2023, has grown into one of the publication’s most popular daily offerings, trailing only Wordle in reach.

Thursday’s yellow group, the easiest of the day, centered on skincare products: CLAY MASK, EYE CREAM, PEEL and TONER. Each item plays a distinct role in a typical skincare regimen. According to dermatologist Dr. Jeannette Graf, speaking to Byrdie, clay masks offer a range of benefits for the skin, including helping to brighten complexion, absorb excess oil, and support overall skin balance. Eye cream is generally used to brighten and moisturize the delicate skin beneath the eyes while helping to reduce the appearance of dark circles, and a peel is typically used to smooth skin texture and address blemishes. Toner, meanwhile, is commonly applied after cleansing to help balance the skin’s pH level and prepare it to better absorb other products like moisturizer.

The green group asked players to identify four shades of black: CHARCOAL, INK, JET and PITCH. Each word functions as a near-synonym for the color, drawing on different visual and cultural associations — charcoal evoking a softer, grayish black; ink suggesting a deep, saturated tone; jet referencing the polished black stone historically used in jewelry and mourning attire; and pitch calling to mind the tar-like substance long used as a descriptor for total darkness, as in the phrase “pitch black.”

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Moving into the blue category, the puzzle’s third-hardest, Thursday’s theme centered on words associated with precision: BULLSEYE, CLOCKWORK, LASER and NEEDLE. A bullseye refers to the center of a target, such as one used in archery or darts, and by extension has become shorthand for hitting an exact mark. Clockwork evokes the finely tuned, reliably accurate mechanisms found inside traditional timepieces, often used to describe something running with flawless regularity. Laser and needle both carry associations with narrow, exact focus — a laser for its concentrated beam of light and precise targeting in fields ranging from surgery to manufacturing, and needle for the fine, exact point used in sewing, medicine and navigation.

The purple group, traditionally the day’s most difficult and prone to misdirection, asked players to spot a shared structural trick rather than a straightforward theme: DOT MATRIX, PERIOD PIECE, POINT BREAK and SPOT REMOVER. Each phrase begins with a word referring to a small mark or spot — dot, period, point and spot — a pattern that required players to look past the literal meaning of the full phrases and instead focus on their opening words. Puzzle commentators noted that the category was designed to reward careful observation over direct definition, since the phrases themselves span wildly different contexts, from printing technology to filmmaking to laundry care, with little in common beyond their first word.

Puzzle trackers following Thursday’s board flagged several red herrings built into the grid to steer solvers toward incorrect groupings. Words evoking printers or tattoos, for instance, appeared to gesture toward other possible categories before ultimately fitting into the “tiny marks” purple group instead. Commentators covering the puzzle also noted the deliberate overlap between categories as one of the signature traits of Connections under Liu’s editorship, with the game frequently constructed so that a word could plausibly belong to more than one group at first glance.

For players working through the puzzle without hints, common strategy advice from the Times’ own guidance includes starting with the most obvious, tightly bound sets — categories built around colors, numbers, or clearly related objects — before moving to groups that require thinking about alternate meanings or wordplay. Players are also encouraged to watch for shared prefixes or suffixes among the remaining words once the easier categories have been solved, since Connections puzzles often bury patterns in word structure rather than surface-level meaning. Staying flexible and expecting misdirection, particularly in the purple category, is widely cited as the most effective way to preserve a daily streak.

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Thursday’s puzzle continued a run of varied themes throughout the week, following patterns in Wednesday’s board that similarly leaned on layered wordplay categories. Connections has built a loyal following in the two years since its 2023 launch by combining relatively simple mechanics with puzzles that reward lateral thinking, drawing comparisons to Wordle in terms of daily engagement even as it demands a different kind of reasoning from players.

The full set of answers for Thursday, July 16, puzzle number 1,131, are as follows: the yellow group for skincare products includes CLAY MASK, EYE CREAM, PEEL and TONER; the green group for shades of black includes CHARCOAL, INK, JET and PITCH; the blue group tied to precision includes BULLSEYE, CLOCKWORK, LASER and NEEDLE; and the purple group built around words beginning with tiny marks includes DOT MATRIX, PERIOD PIECE, POINT BREAK and SPOT REMOVER.

Connections is available daily alongside the Times’ other puzzle offerings, including Wordle, Strands, the Crossword, Letter Boxed and Sudoku, with a new Connections board set to go live at midnight local time for players looking to keep their streaks alive heading into Friday.

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The financial winners and losers from the World Cup

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Fifa President Gianni Infantino speaking at a press conference

The 16 host cities across the US, Canada and Mexico have been welcoming an influx of fans and tourists boosting hospitality, hotels and local businesses.

But while the Scots drank Boston dry and have won the heart of the city and its people, experts say the long-term economic benefits are minimal.

Fifa estimated some $41bn would be added to the global economy, of which $17bn would boost the US economy alone, with 185,000 jobs created, mostly in hospitality and accommodation.

But Alexander Budzier, a fellow in management practice at Oxford University and chief executive of project management company Oxford Global Projects, says the long-term economic benefits of hosting such a big sporting event just do not materialise.

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Host cities actually typically see a big drop in visitors, he says, as many seek to avoid the tournament chaos.

And while there may be a spike in hiring, he argues it is typically only for lower-paid jobs in hospitality. “It creates jobs, but it does not create wealth,” he says.

Official figures show that hiring in US pubs, bars and restaurants ramped up ahead of the tournament in May, but the boom was short-lived.

The only “worthwhile” economic benefit, Budzier argues, is the regeneration projects that can be done, such as the redevelopment and housing built in Stratford in London following the 2012 Olympic Games.

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But due to much of this World Cup using existing stadia, hotels, training complexes and travel infrastructure, “there won’t be any economic benefits from development”.

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Diploma PLC (DPMAY) Q3 2026 Sales/Trading Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Jonathan Thomson
CEO & Director

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I’m here, as usual, with our CFO, Wilson Ng. I’ll say a few words on quarter 3, and then we’ll move as usual to Q&A. It’s been another great quarter for us, 15% organic growth, continuing the momentum from the first half of the year. The sector trends are broadly the same as they were in the first half. Controls, very strong broad-based growth, IS Group, Clarendon, Peerless, Windy still growing double digits, taking good market share in fast-growing end markets. Life Sciences, conversely, markets are tougher. We’re going through a little bit of product cycle — product life cycle refresh. I’m really, really pleased with what we’re doing in Life Sciences, what the team are doing, but we will expect low single-digit growth for the year.

Seals, we’ve seen some acceleration in quarter 3, and we’re expecting a good quarter 4, too, not celebrating. International is a bit better, but patchy and North American Seals is still doing very well. So look, overall, we’re really happy with the quality, with the performance of the portfolio. Peerless continues to perform fantastically, taking share in really good market conditions. Growth is moderating in the second half as we expected against very big comps. And that will continue to moderate into next year until we return to the track record of high

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Dow Jones Rises to 52,747 as Investors Rotate Into Blue-Chip Stocks While Tech and Chip Shares Slide

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FTSE 100 Surges 0.8% Today as Oil Eases and Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher Thursday, climbing 88.62 points, or 0.17%, to 52,747.26, as investors continued rotating into industrial and blue-chip names even as technology and semiconductor stocks struggled to build on recent momentum.

The modest gain extended a two-day winning streak for the 30-stock index, which closed Wednesday up 150.37 points, or 0.29%, at 52,658.64. That session saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both post stronger gains, rising 0.38% and 0.62%, respectively, as investors digested a softer-than-expected wholesale inflation reading and a bullish outlook from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML.

Thursday’s session unfolded with more caution across broader markets, even as the Dow pushed modestly higher. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped 0.8% ahead of the opening bell, as traders weighed whether recent earnings results justified further gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks. A strong earnings beat and raised sales outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing failed to translate into fresh gains for the broader chip sector, a dynamic that has fueled much of this year’s stock market advance. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was down 0.6% in early trading, while Asia’s technology-heavy indexes had another volatile overnight session.

The divergence between the Dow’s modest advance and weakness in more tech-heavy benchmarks reflects a broader rotation that has played out across markets in recent sessions, with investors shifting money away from semiconductor stocks that have led this year’s rally and into other sectors, including industrials and select technology names less exposed to chip supply chains.

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Corporate earnings have played a significant role in shaping sentiment this week. IBM shares tumbled more than 22% Tuesday after the company said it expected second-quarter earnings per share of $2.93 on revenue of $17.2 billion, both below Wall Street’s consensus estimates. The company attributed the shortfall to weaker-than-expected growth in its software and infrastructure businesses, saying customers had shifted spending toward memory chips instead. IBM’s stumble weighed on the Dow and rippled into the broader software sector, with Workday, Salesforce and Adobe shares falling 9%, 6% and 5%, respectively, as investors grew concerned about softening demand across enterprise software.

Chip stocks, meanwhile, showed signs of stabilizing after a rough stretch earlier in the week. South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix rose nearly 7% ahead of Tuesday’s opening bell, reversing part of a double-digit decline from the prior session, as investors returned to some of the sector’s most beaten-down names.

Inflation data released this week offered some reassurance to markets. June’s Consumer Price Index came in better than expected, falling 0.4% on a monthly basis, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat. Major indexes climbed on the data initially, though the reading came with a caveat: the decline reflected falling oil prices from earlier in the year that have since risen sharply again. Crude oil topped $80 a barrel this week after Iran and the United States traded attacks and the Trump administration reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move President Trump described in a social media post as intended to secure the strait while allowing the U.S. to collect a 20% fee on cargo shipped through the region. Crude prices have risen 16% from a recent low, a shift that could eventually pressure consumer and transportation-related stocks if sustained.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s remarks to Congress this week have also factored into market sentiment, with investors watching closely for any signals about the central bank’s next moves on interest rates amid the mixed inflation and growth data.

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Thursday’s trading session carried a heavy earnings and economic data calendar. Wall Street was watching for results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, Abbott Laboratories, US Bancorp, Netflix and Intuitive Surgical, alongside June retail sales figures and the weekly initial jobless claims report, both of which were expected to offer fresh insight into the health of the U.S. consumer and labor market.

Big Tech names that led Wednesday’s rally showed a mixed picture heading into Thursday. Apple shares closed at a record high Wednesday after a report indicated the company had received approval to launch its generative artificial intelligence features in China, sending the stock up more than 4%. Alphabet shares rose nearly 3% the same session, while Amazon and Microsoft each gained close to 3%. Whether those gains would hold on Thursday remained uncertain given the more cautious tone in premarket trading, with technology shares broadly turning negative even as the Dow’s more industrial and financial-heavy composition helped it post a modest gain.

Financial sector earnings have generally come in strong this reporting season. BlackRock shares jumped more than 5% earlier this week after the asset management giant posted second-quarter results that beat expectations, with the company reporting earnings of $13.91 per share on revenue of $7.08 billion. Morgan Stanley shares rose more than 1% in premarket trading after the bank reported record quarterly revenue and profit, posting $3.46 in earnings per share on revenue of $21.35 billion.

Market strategists have cautioned that expectations for this earnings season remain elevated. According to CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall, second-quarter earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are projected to rise 20.9% year-over-year, well above the average quarterly increase of 11.6% seen since 2009. Full-year S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb 22.9% in 2026 and 18.2% in 2027, according to Stovall, even as the index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio sits at a premium to its 10-year average, raising the bar for companies to justify current valuations with their results.

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Billionaire investor Warren Buffett offered a note of caution on the broader market environment this week, telling CNBC’s Becky Quick that today’s market has become increasingly shaped by speculative trading rather than long-term investing, a dynamic he said has made it harder to find good value.

With crude oil prices elevated on Middle East tensions, corporate earnings delivering a mixed bag of results, and investors continuing to reassess the AI trade that has powered much of this year’s rally, Thursday’s modest gain for the Dow reflected a market still searching for consistent direction as the second-quarter earnings season moves into full swing.

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Wise Group plc (WSE) Q1 2027 Sales/Trading Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript