Coinbase shares have fallen 4% to about $169 on July 22 as the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds dropped 15 percentage points from the previous day’s peak.

Polymarket data places the bill’s chance of passing before the end of 2026 at 37%, down from 52% on July 21, after disagreements emerged over how proposed ethics restrictions should be enforced.

President Donald Trump had agreed to include ethics provisions in the market structure bill, helping lift the probability on Polymarket and sending COIN stock 9% higher on July 21. The compromise, however, failed to secure enough support after some Democratic senators objected to assigning enforcement responsibility to the U.S. Department of Justice instead of state attorneys general.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks described the White House proposal as an “unserious offer” and stated that senators would continue working on language capable of holding all parties accountable. Her comments weakened expectations that the latest concession would end the dispute holding up the legislation.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis also indicated that the text was not ready for a procedural vote. According to Tillis, lawmakers still need to make changes before senators can support advancing the bill, leaving its timetable uncertain despite the renewed negotiations.

Falling bill odds have interrupted COIN’s rebound

Monday’s policy optimism helped Coinbase shares close above $170 for the first time since June 2, but the rally lost momentum as the disagreement in Washington returned. TradingView data shows COIN opened at $172.25 on July 22, reached $174.96 and fell as low as $168.32 before trading near $169.11.

On the daily chart, the latest advance also pushed COIN above a descending trendline drawn from its May high. Tuesday’s decline brought the stock back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $170.89, making that level the first resistance buyers need to recover.

Momentum readings still show some support beneath the pullback. The chart’s moving average convergence divergence line has moved above its signal line, while the histogram has turned positive, a combination that TradingView’s indicator readings associate with improving bullish momentum.

COIN’s relative strength index stands at 53.68, above its moving average of 49.70 and well below overbought territory. According to the chart, this neutral-to-positive reading gives buyers room to extend the recovery if the stock retakes $170.89 and attracts follow-through demand.

Above that barrier, the Fibonacci retracement identifies $180.70 as the next resistance, followed by $190.51 and $202.65. A close above the $180.70 midpoint would strengthen the recovery case and place the psychological $200 area close to the 23.6% retracement.

Failure to reclaim $170.89 would leave COIN exposed to the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $156.92. The chart places the full retracement at $139.13, although the July price structure also shows several recent lows around $150 that could offer support before the stock reaches the lower target.

Bitcoin’s recovery to around $66,000 may provide an additional catalyst because Coinbase earns part of its revenue from crypto trading. Raymond James, however, expects subdued market activity to weigh on the company’s performance and has initiated coverage with a $158 price target, roughly 6.5% below COIN’s quoted level near $169.

Oppenheimer previously lowered its Coinbase target to $209, also citing soft spot-trading volumes during the crypto downturn. Despite its cautious stock forecast, Raymond James estimated that Coinbase’s expanding product range, including prediction markets, could eventually produce more than $100 million in annualized revenue.

New products and an SEC settlement support the business case

Coinbase added another service on July 22 by opening SUI staking to eligible customers. According to the exchange, users can begin with one SUI and earn estimated annual rewards ranging from 1.4% to 3.3% while keeping their tokens in their Coinbase accounts, although availability varies by location.

Alongside the product rollout, Coinbase secured a $150,000 settlement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over missing communications from former Chair Gary Gensler. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal disclosed the agreement on July 22, ending the exchange’s Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the regulator.

Under the settlement described by Grewal, the SEC will pay Coinbase and revise its record-retention rules after nearly 11 months of Gensler’s text messages were lost. Grewal wrote that the agency blamed a process that “automatically wiped” certain data, including communications Coinbase had requested while investigating how senior officials approached crypto policy and enforcement.

Coinbase had also sued the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 2024 for records it believed could reveal efforts by U.S. regulators to limit crypto companies’ access to banking services. The SEC agreement resolves only the related records case, but it adds a legal win as investors assess the exchange’s regulatory position.

Attention now turns to Coinbase’s second-quarter results, scheduled for July 30. Analysts expect earnings of $0.19 per share, compared with a loss of $1.49 per share in the first quarter, making trading revenue, new services and management’s outlook key tests for COIN after its policy-driven rally.

Tesla has kept its 11,509 Bitcoin reserve unchanged while recording a $112 million after-tax loss on digital assets during the second quarter.

Tesla’s second-quarter shareholder update showed that the electric vehicle maker neither bought nor sold Bitcoin during the three months ended June 30. The decision extended a holding pattern that began after the company sold most of its original position in 2022.

Bitcoin’s sharp decline during the quarter reduced the reported value of Tesla’s remaining crypto assets. The cryptocurrency traded near $83,000 at the start of the period before falling as low as $58,000 in late June.

By the time Tesla released its results, Bitcoin had recovered to about $65,840. The rebound came too late to reverse the loss recorded for the reporting period because Tesla’s digital assets are measured using their fair value at the applicable reporting date.

Tesla adopted the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s updated crypto accounting standard in 2024. Under those rules, eligible crypto assets are valued at current market prices, with quarterly gains or losses recognized through earnings.

The $112 million figure should therefore be described as an after-tax fair-value or mark-to-market loss, rather than an impairment charge under the accounting model Tesla previously used. The former impairment system generally required companies to record declines while preventing them from recognizing recoveries unless the assets were sold.

Tesla’s Bitcoin reserve remains untouched

Tesla’s reported balance of 11,509 BTC has remained unchanged across recent quarterly disclosures. At Bitcoin’s price of roughly $65,840 following the earnings release, the position was worth about $758 million, although its accounting value depends on the price used at the quarter’s close.

Arkham Intelligence also tracks 11,509 BTC in wallets associated with Tesla, placing the company among the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holders. Tesla’s continued ownership contrasts with its decision to sell about 75% of its holdings during the second quarter of 2022.

The company entered the market in February 2021, when an SEC filing disclosed that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin under a revised investment policy. Tesla said at the time that the purchase was intended to diversify its cash holdings and provide additional flexibility.

Following that investment, Tesla briefly allowed customers in the United States to buy vehicles with Bitcoin. Chief Executive Elon Musk suspended the payment option in May 2021, citing concerns about the use of fossil fuels in Bitcoin mining and transactions.

Tesla later converted roughly $936 million of Bitcoin into cash during the 2022 sale. Musk attributed the decision to uncertainty over COVID-related restrictions in China and the company’s desire to strengthen its cash position, rather than a loss of confidence in Bitcoin.

Since completing that disposal, Tesla has retained its remaining coins through several large price cycles. Its position survived Bitcoin’s fall below $16,000 in late 2022, the cryptocurrency’s subsequent recovery, and the latest decline toward $58,000.

No statement in Tesla’s second-quarter materials indicated that the company plans to restart Bitcoin purchases or reduce the reserve. Its unchanged balance instead continued the passive approach visible in its disclosures since the 2022 sale.

Tesla had recorded a $173 million after-tax digital-asset loss in the first quarter of 2026, according to its previous earnings report. Bitcoin declined from about $90,000 at the beginning of that period to roughly $68,000 by the end of March, reducing the value assigned to the same 11,509-coin position.

Revenue growth fails to prevent an earnings miss

Tesla’s core business delivered mixed second-quarter results while the Bitcoin loss weighed on its reported numbers. The company generated $28.2 billion in revenue, beating Wall Street’s estimate of approximately $26.4 billion and rising from $22.5 billion a year earlier.

Adjusted earnings came in at $0.33 per share, however, missing analysts’ expectations. Tesla also reported net income of about $1.11 billion, compared with $1.17 billion during the corresponding quarter of 2025.

Vehicle deliveries supported the revenue increase after Tesla handed over 480,126 cars during the quarter. The company’s delivery report put the total about 25% above the year-earlier period and made it one of Tesla’s strongest quarters by vehicle volume.

Profitability remained under pressure despite the sales recovery. Tesla reported an automotive gross margin of 16.3%, excluding regulatory credits, up from about 15% one year earlier but below the 19.2% recorded in the first quarter of 2026.

Heavy spending also pushed Tesla’s free cash flow to negative $1.1 billion, according to its shareholder update. The company ended the quarter with approximately $43.5 billion in cash and investments while continuing to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure, manufacturing projects, robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Against those larger expenses, the $112 million digital-asset loss represented one volatile component of Tesla’s results rather than a cash outflow caused by a Bitcoin sale. Tesla’s filings show that the company still owns the same number of coins, leaving the reported value of the position exposed to Bitcoin’s price at future quarter-end dates.

S&P Dow Jones Indices and Pantera Capital launched a digital asset index that tracks blockchain networks and protocols based on protocol revenue, marking a departure from crypto benchmarks built around market capitalization or token prices.

The index draws from the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Asset Index but only includes assets that meet minimum thresholds for protocol revenue, market capitalization and liquidity. Eligible networks are then ranked by aggregate protocol revenue over the previous two quarters and weighted by adjusted market capitalization, with the largest holding capped at 35% and the remaining constituents generally capped at 20%. The index is rebalanced quarterly.

According to an announcement from the companies, the benchmark is intended for institutional allocation and may serve as the basis for investment products or as a reference for actively managed digital asset portfolios. S&P said the rules-based framework is designed to distinguish established blockchain activity from speculative exposure.

The index launched with 18 constituents, with Ether (ETH), BNB (BNB), Solana (SOL), TRON (TRX) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) as its five largest holdings, according to an S&P Dow Jones Indices Indexology blog post. The blog identified Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP (XRP) as the largest non-constituents compared with the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Asset Index, reflecting the benchmark’s protocol revenue-based selection methodology.

Related: Pyth unveils continuous pricing indexes for US stocks and commodities

The launch also builds on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ broader expansion into digital asset benchmarks. Last October, the index provider introduced the S&P Digital Markets 50 Index, which combines 15 cryptocurrencies with 35 publicly traded companies tied to the crypto ecosystem.

Source: Tron DAO

Asset managers expand crypto index offerings

The debut follows a broader industry push to develop institutional-grade benchmarks for digital assets as traditional finance firms expand crypto offerings and tokenized assets gain traction.

Hashdex launched the Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF on Feb. 14, 2025, the first multi-asset spot crypto exchange-traded fund in the United States. Franklin Templeton followed six days later with the Franklin Crypto Index ETF, a market capitalization-weighted fund tracking Bitcoin and Ether through the US CF Institutional Digital Asset Index.

The trend continued in April when MarketVector Indexes and Coinbase Asset Management launched the Coinbase Store of Value Index, a benchmark combining Bitcoin and tokenized gold using an inverse-volatility weighting model to provide diversified exposure to the assets.

In December, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said “crypto index funds are going to be a big deal in 2026” as the market becomes more complex and investors seek broader exposure to digital assets. He argued that predicting which blockchain networks would emerge as long-term winners was increasingly difficult, making diversified index products a practical way to gain market exposure.

Magazine: The digital euro: Surveillance money, or a better alternative to cash?

Tesla (TSLA) held its bitcoin BTC$65,889.62 holdings unchanged during the second quarter, maintaining its treasury of 11,509 BTC as the cryptocurrency’s price declined 14% over the three-month period.

The electric vehicle maker reported an after-tax impairment loss of $112 million on its digital asset holdings, according to its latest earnings release. Tesla has neither bought nor sold any bitcoin since 2022.

Bitcoin fell from about $83,000 at the start of the second quarter to roughly $58,000 by the end of June amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility across risk assets. The cryptocurrency was recently trading at $65,840.

Tesla remains one of the largest publicly traded corporate holders of bitcoin, though its holdings are significantly smaller than those of firms such as Strategy (MSTR), which has continued to aggressively accumulate the cryptocurrency.

The company’s crypto update came alongside mixed second-quarter financial results. Tesla reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.33, missing analyst expectations of $0.55. Revenue came in at $28.2 billion, topping consensus estimates of $27.6 billion.

Gross margin was 16.8%, while GAAP net income totaled $1.11 billion. The company also reported negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion for the quarter.

Senate Republicans have added crypto restrictions for top elected officials to the CLARITY Act, but Democratic resistance has pushed its 2026 passage odds down 15 percentage points from their July 21 peak.

According to reports, Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks opposed relying solely on the Department of Justice to enforce the ethics rules, calling the proposal “unserious.” She indicated that she would not support the CLARITY Act if the DOJ remained the only enforcement option.

Alsobrooks said she would vote against the bill if the current language reached the Senate floor. Her position matters because she was one of only two Democrats who helped advance the legislation through the Senate Banking Committee in May.

President Donald Trump accepted the ethics provision earlier this week after Democratic lawmakers made restrictions on elected officials’ crypto dealings a condition for further negotiations. Although his concession addressed one disputed issue, the enforcement fight has kept a bipartisan agreement out of reach.

According to reports from Crypto in America journalist Eleanor Terrett and Punchbowl News reporter Brendan Pedersen, the White House sent the proposed language to Republican senators on July 20. Democrats had not reviewed the wording before Trump’s agreement became public.

Democratic resistance cuts the bill’s passage odds

Under the latest draft, the president, vice president, members of Congress, federal judges and their spouses would qualify as covered elected officials. The legislation would prohibit them from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while they remain subject to the restrictions.

Covered officials would also have to sell their crypto holdings, place them in a blind trust or use both methods. According to the reported bill text, the provision would expire at noon on Jan. 20, 2029, when Trump is scheduled to leave office.

Another clause would allow a company to continue using an official’s name, image or likeness if the arrangement existed before the person entered covered status. The proposed restrictions do not appear to apply equally to every member of an official’s extended family.

Democrats had demanded ethics language after financial disclosures showed that Trump earned as much as $1.4 billion from crypto-related ventures last year. Senators Alsobrooks and Kirsten Gillibrand told colleagues earlier in July that the market structure legislation could not advance without rules addressing elected officials’ potential conflicts.

Trump’s approval initially encouraged traders to price in a better chance of passage. Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 climbed to about 43% on July 21, compared with 32% the previous Friday.

Those gains faded after Democrats challenged the enforcement mechanism. The contract fell to 39% and later traded near 35%, according to Polymarket, reversing the optimism created by Trump’s concession.

Coinbase shares followed the weaker legislative outlook, falling about 4% to nearly $169 on July 22. The stock had closed at $175.85 one day earlier before trading between roughly $166 and $175 during the next session.

The price decline came as investors assessed legislation that could determine how U.S. exchanges, token issuers and stablecoin businesses operate. According to Latham & Watkins’ U.S. crypto policy tracker, the Senate bill must still clear a 60-vote threshold, be reconciled with the House-approved version and receive Trump’s signature.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning the party needs at least seven Democrats if every Republican supports the measure. Alsobrooks’ planned opposition leaves sponsors without a clear path to the supermajority required to move the legislation forward.

Enforcement disputes keep crypto regulation unsettled

Beyond the ethics section, Republicans added language intended to answer concerns raised by prosecutors and law enforcement groups. Those groups had warned that parts of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act could limit their ability to pursue illicit finance involving decentralized crypto services.

Senate Banking Committee Democrats raised similar national-security concerns in May. They warned that the bill should not create exclusions that sanctions evaders, criminal groups or foreign adversaries could exploit.

Republican committee members have argued that the legislation already contains anti-money-laundering requirements and information-sharing measures for digital-asset companies. The updated text now gives law enforcement more authority to address crypto-related crime, although the provision has not resolved the separate disagreement over ethics enforcement.

Questions about regulatory resources have also reached the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. During a July 21 House Agriculture subcommittee hearing, former CFTC lawyer Carl Kennedy warned that the regulator may be “short-staffed” as it oversees fast-growing prediction markets and prepares for possible new digital-asset duties under the CLARITY Act.

Kennedy’s written testimony showed that trading volume on CFTC-registered prediction markets exceeded $25 billion in 2025. On one major platform, average daily event-contract listings increased from about 1,600 in April 2025 to nearly 162,000 in April 2026.

Although Republicans have revised the bill to address ethics and law-enforcement concerns, Alsobrooks’ response shows that the method of holding officials accountable remains unresolved. Falling Polymarket odds and weaker Coinbase shares suggest traders have not treated Trump’s concession as a completed bipartisan agreement.

Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its $125,000 cycle peak, but Grayscale’s Zach Pandl has argued that the cryptocurrency may have already reached its bottom if the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates.

Grayscale Research has presented two competing views of when the current Bitcoin bear market could end, with one based on the asset’s four-year cycle and the other tied to economic growth, real interest rates and Fed policy.

Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, favors the second explanation because Bitcoin has increasingly behaved like a mature asset affected by the same macroeconomic forces that influence other major markets. Under that view, stable growth and an end to rate hikes could allow Bitcoin’s latest low to hold.

Two securities transfer groups have urged the SEC to prioritize issuer-backed tokenized stocks and ETFs while limiting unaffiliated versions that may not provide shareholders with direct ownership rights.

Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company outlined its position in a letter to the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, supporting rules for tokenized securities while calling for tougher treatment of products created without an issuer’s approval.

The registered transfer agent backed a similar proposal from the Securities Transfer Association, an industry group representing companies that maintain shareholder records and process ownership changes. Both groups asked the SEC to draw a clear line between securities tokenized by an issuer and tokens created by an unrelated platform.

Under their proposed distinction, an issuer-sponsored token represents a security that the company has authorized for blockchain-based issuance or trading. The transfer agent can therefore record its holder as a shareholder and apply the same ownership controls used for conventional securities.

An unaffiliated token may instead track a stock’s price or represent an indirect interest in shares held by another party. According to the STA, those arrangements do not necessarily create a legal relationship between the token buyer and the company whose stock provides the reference value.

“We support innovation in the securities markets, but believe any tokenization framework must preserve investor protection, issuer authorization, accurate shareholder records, transfer controls, and market integrity,” CSTT wrote in its letter.

Issuer-backed tokens preserve shareholder rights

CSTT warned that investors could mistake third-party tokens for direct shares even when the products provide different legal and economic rights. According to the firm, unclear ownership structures may also leave buyers without adequate disclosures about custody, voting rights, dividends or claims during insolvency.

For public companies, CSTT argued that unaffiliated products could disrupt shareholder records and make it difficult to identify the owners of an issuer’s securities. Missing or unreliable information could then affect voting, dividend payments, tender offers, stock splits and other corporate actions.

The STA identified additional concerns involving insider trading, market manipulation, sanctions screening and transfer restrictions. Its letter also cited possible reputational damage when a company’s shares are used in a tokenized product without its knowledge or consent.

Based on those risks, CSTT asked the SEC to modernize registration documents in a way that gives priority to tokenization programs approved by issuers. The company also opposed granting unaffiliated stock and ETF tokens relief through an innovation exemption unless the SEC first imposes investor safeguards.

The distinction echoes an earlier warning from SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who stated in July 2025 that blockchain technology does not alter the legal nature of an investment product.

“As powerful as blockchain technology is, it does not have magical abilities to transform the nature of the underlying asset. Tokenized securities are still securities,” Peirce wrote in a statement reported by Reuters.

Peirce also distinguished between securities tokenized by issuers and products created by unrelated third parties. According to the commissioner, investors in third-party versions may face risks that do not exist when they purchase shares directly from an issuer or through conventional market infrastructure.

Regulated platforms are advancing tokenized trading

Demand for blockchain-based access to traditional assets has continued as crypto exchanges add stocks, ETFs and derivatives to their product lines. Coinbase, Kraken and Binance have each announced services connecting digital-asset users with traditional market products, although their structures and availability differ by jurisdiction.

Traditional market operators are pursuing tokenization through regulated infrastructure as well. In March, the New York Stock Exchange announced a partnership with Securitize to develop a platform for tokenized securities, with Securitize serving as a digital transfer agent for participating corporate and ETF issuers.

Under that arrangement, NYSE and Securitize plan to establish operating and regulatory standards for digital transfer agents. NYSE President Lynn Martin said that new tokenization systems must retain the trust, transparency and investor protections expected in established capital markets.

The SEC had also approved a Nasdaq proposal allowing certain stocks to trade and settle in tokenized form. That model keeps the tokenized shares within an exchange system governed by existing securities rules.

Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation has separately tested tokenization using assets linked to Microsoft, Circle, the Invesco QQQ Trust, State Street’s SPDR S&P 500 ETF and BlackRock’s iShares 0–3 Month Treasury Bond ETF. The trial includes stocks, index funds and short-term government debt products.

Unlike synthetic tokens produced without issuer involvement, these regulated projects use transfer agents, exchanges or established clearing infrastructure to maintain ownership records. CSTT and the STA have asked the SEC to preserve that connection as the agency develops rules governing tokenized stocks and ETFs.