Abstract

Southeast Asia faces growing US-China rivalry reminiscent of pre-WWI tensions. ASEAN’s traditional diplomatic balancing act is under strain as both superpowers pressure the region. Malaysia and Southeast Asia must build collective strategic weight beyond polite neutrality to avoid becoming casualties of great-power conflict.

Key Points

• An ancient Southeast Asian instinct of careful navigation resurfaces as US-China rivalry intensifies, mirroring dangerous pre-WWI patterns of declining hegemony, rising challengers, territorial disputes, and nationalist tensions that threaten regional stability.

• ASEAN’s decades-long diplomatic balancing act — absorbing American security, Chinese trade, and multiple powers’ investments — faces unprecedented strain as both superpowers pressure the region to align with their competing visions of world order.

• Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia, has become a critical geopolitical hinge in the technology and supply chain war, making passive neutrality increasingly untenable as great-power competition penetrates the region’s economic infrastructure.

The Return of Great-Power Rivalry

Southeast Asia faces a world that smells dangerously like 1914. History is repeating its familiar patterns: a declining hegemon, a rising challenger, territorial disputes, naval build-ups, and nationalist fever amplified by new technologies. Author Odd Arne Westad’s The Coming Storm serves as a critical warning that the region must heed. If America and China stumble into conflict, Asean’s 684 million people and US$3.84 trillion in global trade will not be spectators — they will be the table. The challenge is no longer simply avoiding a choice between Washington and Beijing, but building enough collective resilience that neither superpower can treat Southeast Asia merely as terrain.

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Asean’s Diplomatic Balancing Act Under Strain

For decades, Southeast Asia performed a remarkable feat of strategic improvisation, absorbing American security, Chinese trade, Japanese capital, and European markets while transforming swamps into ports and fishing villages into industrial hubs. This wasn’t cowardice — it was survival. However, Washington now speaks through export controls, tariffs, and technology denial, while Beijing leverages coastguard vessels, artificial islands, and infrastructure loans. Both superpowers publicly respect Asean’s autonomy while privately preferring it exercised in their favour. The region’s famously consensus-driven, carefully worded diplomacy — once its greatest strength — is buckling under the pressure of a fundamentally harsher geopolitical reality.

Malaysia’s Precarious Position at the Crossroads

Malaysia sits almost perfectly inside this great-power contradiction. Facing the strategically vital Strait of Malacca and deeply embedded in both Chinese commerce and American technology supply chains, Malaysia cannot afford complacency. Penang alone, as a critical global semiconductor hub, has become part of the nervous system of 21st-century geopolitical competition. Modern rivalries are no longer fought only on battlefields — they play out through customs forms, export permits, sanctions lists, and undersea cables. As Southeast Asia becomes the world’s favourite supply-chain workaround, it simultaneously becomes the place where both powers test each other’s limits. The elephants are moving. The question is no longer whether the storm can be avoided — but where the lightning strikes first.

Source : Opinion: The table, not the audience — Asean and the coming US-China collision

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The Rudd-Gillard era of disunity has likely influenced Labor’s approach to prioritise unity over potentially fractious public debate, a political historian says.

Factional leaders blocked public discussion about the party’s position on Israeli actions, including a reference to “genocide” against Palestinians, on the conference floor during a three-day meet in Adelaide that closed on Saturday.

The only debate thrashed out in the open at Labor’s national conference was on expanding voluntary assisted dying to telehealth appointments, with all other changes passed unopposed.

Backroom deals on policy platform motions weren’t unusual, but the conference was very managed compared to past events, prominent Labor historian Frank Bongiorno said.

“This is a government and a party that is still very wounded really by its last time in office between 2007 and 2013, when there was a collapse of unity,” the University of Canberra academic told AAP.

“Going back to that period, you wouldn’t say there was a strong culture of debate at conference, although they did obviously have the debate over marriage equality and also debates about selling uranium to India.

Professor Bongiorno said the party had more frequent robust conference debates in 1970s, 80s and 90s, including on privatisation.

“It was taken for granted that when you had something that was particularly contentious that there was going to be some sort of debate,” he said.

“I think back to someone like (prime minister Paul) Keating making the case on the floor in 1984 for allowing foreign banks into the country.

“There just doesn’t seem to be that kind of culture … it’s clearly wound down and I suspect the media environment is part of the reason for that.”

The policy adopted by Labor delegates noted the party’s opposition to Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories and called for illegal settlement activity to end.

Former cabinet minister Ed Husic, now a backbencher, led the push for the party to publicly have it out over the party’s policy.

But Gaza hadn’t universally split Labor’s left and right factions in the same way other foreign policy issues had in decades past, Prof Bongiorno said.

“Look at who the major, open dissenter is: someone who comes from the NSW right in Ed Husic,” he said.

“That would have been utterly unheard of back in the 1980s and 90s, for someone from that faction to take that kind of position.”

The prime minister, who originates from the party’s left faction, on Sunday defended Labor limiting debate, declaring the meeting the “most transparent political conference in Australia by far”.

“The party has changed and one of the things that’s happened in the party is we are more cohesive, more united than we’ve ever been before,” he said.

Opposition home affairs spokesman Jonathon Duniam said the prime minister ruled his party with an “iron fist” and any dissent at the conference was quickly shut down.

ET Intelligence Group: Initial trends in pharma results for the June quarter show pressure on the US business, with a double-digit fall in net profit and contraction in operating profitability. The domestic business continued to be a bright spot for both companies. Obesity therapies, respiratory products, biosimilars and speciality launches are key growth drivers in the coming quarters.

Dr Reddy’s Labs lost 10% and Cipla 8%, on bourses, underperforming the 10% gain in the BSE Healthcare index over the past 12 months. These stocks are expected to remain range-bound in the short term given the challenging business scenario. Analysts have reduced earnings forecasts for each company by 6-8% for FY27 and FY28.

Read more: August Rush: Over 2 dozen companies plan Street debut next monthDr Reddy’s reported a weaker-than-expected quarter as profitability was hit by a sharp decline in lenalidomide sales and a one-time ₹239.7-crore provision linked to quality issues in its semaglutide portfolio. Its revenue declined 5.6% year-on-year to ₹8,070.5 crore, while net profit dropped 69.2% to ₹434.8 crore.

In comparison, Cipla reported its highest-ever June quarter revenue of ₹7,119.3 crore, up 2% year-on-year, but profit declined 39.2% to ₹785.6 crore as margins came under pressure from product mix changes, launch-related investments, inventory charges and geopolitical disruptions.
Operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin) for Dr Reddy’s dropped to 12.5% from 26.7% in the year-ago quarter and contracted to 16.7% from 25.6% for Cipla during the period, highlighting the profitability challenges both companies currently face.

The US business remains the key transition area for both companies. Dr Reddy’s North America revenue declined 35% year-on-year as lenalidomide sales continued to normalise; however, the company maintained that its core non-lenalidomide business should deliver double-digit growth in FY27. Cipla’s North America revenue dropped 21% to ₹1,532 crore.
Both the companies, however, remain optimistic about their US prospects. Dr Reddy’s launched six products during the quarter, including first-to-market generic bosutinib, used in cancer treatment, with 180-day exclusivity, while Cipla commercialised Nintedanib (used to treat lung infections), Dapagliflozin (used in diabetes treatment), and generic Ventolin (used to treat respiratory ailments).

Obesity and peptide-based therapies are emerging as future growth drivers. Dr Reddy’s has launched generic semaglutide injection in Canada and semaglutide tablets in India, while also introducing a GLP-1 nutrition product with Nestle. Although quality issues temporarily disrupted semaglutide supplies, the company expects production to resume by November.

Cipla has gained early traction in obesity management through Yurpeak (tirzepatide), licensed from Eli Lilly. The brand generated around ₹80 crore in sales during the quarter and has already become the second-largest brand in the segment after Mounjaro.

Emkay Research has reduced earnings estimates for each of the two companies by 6-8% for FY27-28. The broker has downgraded Dr Reddy’s’ target price by 8% to ₹1,200 while maintaining a ‘reduce’ rating on the stock. On the other hand, it has retained an ‘add’ rating on Cipla, citing strong momentum in domestic sales and has retained the target price for Cipla at ₹1,450.

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A veteran-owned tea and coffee company that started in a Georgia dining room is working to create jobs for former service members while building a brand rooted in American history and values.

Iraq War veteran Roger Owens founded Star Spangled Tea & Coffee Co. with his wife, Aimee Owens, during the COVID-19 pandemic. The idea came after Roger Owens, a longtime coffee drinker, developed a taste for tea.

“My son and my wife got me drinking tea, and I was really not a tea drinker, I was more of a coffee guy,” Roger Owens told FOX Business.

After discovering hibiscus tea, the couple searched online for an American-themed and veteran-owned tea company. They came up empty-handed.

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“We kind of looked at each other and decided to start our own,” he said.

The Columbus, Georgia-based company launched nearly four years ago and initially operated from the couple’s dining room.

“We didn’t know anything about tea to begin with,” Roger Owens said. “… Trying to start a business during COVID was not easy.”

Star Spangled Tea & Coffee now sells premium coffee and loose-leaf teas inspired by American history, landmarks and regional flavors.

Its products include blends featuring Georgia peaches and Florida key limes, along with teas and coffees tied to national parks and historic sites.

According to the company’s website, its products are sold at museums, presidential libraries, state parks, historic destinations and specialty retailers. 

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It also ships nationwide, including to Alaska, Hawaii and military addresses overseas.

Roger Owens said the business places a strong emphasis on hiring veterans and helping them regain the sense of teamwork and purpose they may have lost after leaving the military.

“You’re used to being [part of] a team and then when you get out of the military, you’re alone other than your family, and it’s like somebody pulled the carpet out from under you,” Roger Owens said.

“We want veterans to find more than just a job,” he added. “We’re looking for them to find purpose.”

The company expanded into coffee last year after repeated requests from customers.

It has also developed several patriotic products through its work with Freedom 250, including a “Great American Road Trip” light-roast coffee blend linked to the celebration of America’s 250th anniversary. 

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Other products include a cherry blossom-inspired White House blend and a history-inspired Liberty Tea.

Roger Owens said the company’s long-term vision extends beyond selling tea and coffee.

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“We’re not just building another coffee company,” he said. “We’re building America’s next destination brand.”

He hopes to open stores across the country where customers can gather over tea or coffee and “celebrate what unites us.” The company is seeking investors and strategic partners to help open locations, expand its product line and hire more veterans.

“We didn’t want politics involved in this, we wanted it to be for all Americans,” Roger Owens said.

The Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA) and the Department of Trade and Industry – Small Business Corporation (DTI-SB Corp) have officially strengthened their partnership to expand livelihood and business opportunities for Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) through the improved implementation of the OFW Negosyo Fund.

The Memorandum of Agreement (MOA), formally signed on May 18 at the DTI Filinvest Building in Makati City, marks another important step toward helping OFWs gain easier access to financial assistance, entrepreneurship support, and business development programs as they transition toward long-term financial stability in the Philippines.

The agreement aims to simplify and improve the loan facilitation process for OFWs who wish to start, sustain, or expand their own businesses. Through better coordination among government offices and regional centers, more overseas Filipino workers are expected to benefit from livelihood programs designed specifically for returning migrants and their families.

Expanded Access to OFW Negosyo Fund

One of the main goals of the partnership is to widen access to the OFW Negosyo Fund, a government-backed financing program that supports OFWs who want to build businesses and establish sustainable sources of income in the country.

Under the strengthened agreement, OWWA and DTI-SB Corp will improve referral procedures among Regional Offices, Negosyo Centers, Provincial Help Desks, and Reintegration Centers nationwide. This coordinated approach is expected to reduce delays, improve communication between agencies, and provide faster assistance to OFWs seeking business loans and livelihood support.

For many overseas Filipino workers, access to startup capital remains one of the biggest challenges in pursuing entrepreneurship. Traditional bank loans often require strict collateral and financial requirements that many returning OFWs may find difficult to meet.

Programs such as the OFW Negosyo Fund aim to bridge that gap by providing accessible financing options and government support systems tailored to the needs of migrant workers.

Helping OFWs Build Sustainable Businesses

The Philippine government continues to encourage financial literacy and entrepreneurship among OFWs as part of its long-term reintegration strategy. Rather than relying solely on overseas employment, many OFWs are now exploring opportunities to invest their savings into small businesses, franchising opportunities, online selling ventures, food businesses, retail stores, agribusiness projects, and other income-generating activities.

The strengthened collaboration between OWWA and DTI-SB Corp is expected to help aspiring entrepreneurs navigate the process more efficiently.

Aside from loan facilitation, the partnership also focuses on improving the capabilities of regional offices to ensure more effective delivery of services. This includes strengthening frontline support, improving coordination among agencies, and providing better guidance to OFWs who may need assistance in business planning, loan applications, and entrepreneurship training.

Government agencies recognize that financial assistance alone is not enough to guarantee business success. Many small enterprises fail because of lack of business knowledge, poor financial management, or insufficient market preparation.

Because of this, livelihood programs now increasingly include mentorship, financial education, and entrepreneurship seminars to improve the chances of long-term success for OFW-owned businesses.

Officials Express Support for the Partnership

The signing ceremony was led by OWWA Administrator Patricia Yvonne “PY” Caunan, who delivered the opening remarks during the event.

Support for the strengthened partnership was also expressed by Department of Migrant Workers (DMW) Secretary Hans Leo J. Cacdac and Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque.

The collaboration reflects the government’s continuing effort to create more economic opportunities for OFWs and returning migrant workers who want to establish stable livelihoods in the Philippines.

Officials highlighted the importance of empowering overseas Filipino workers not only through employment opportunities abroad but also through sustainable reintegration programs that can help them achieve long-term financial independence.

Importance of Reintegration Programs for OFWs

Millions of Filipinos continue to work overseas to support their families, contribute to household income, and provide better educational opportunities for their children. However, many OFWs also face financial uncertainty after returning home, especially if they lack stable investments or alternative sources of income.

This is why reintegration programs have become increasingly important in recent years.

Livelihood assistance and entrepreneurship financing programs allow OFWs to transform their hard-earned savings into productive investments that can generate long-term income even after overseas employment ends.

Government agencies have repeatedly emphasized that entrepreneurship can help OFWs reduce dependency on overseas work while creating jobs and stimulating local economic growth.

Small businesses established by returning OFWs can also contribute to community development by generating employment opportunities for other Filipinos.

Growing Interest in Small Business Opportunities

The demand for small business financing in the Philippines continues to rise as more Filipinos explore entrepreneurship opportunities. Digital platforms, online marketplaces, and social media marketing have made it easier for small entrepreneurs to reach customers nationwide.

Many OFWs are now investing in businesses such as:

With proper guidance, financing support, and business education, these ventures can become sustainable sources of income for OFWs and their families.

Improved Coordination Among Government Offices

The new agreement between OWWA and DTI-SB Corp also aims to improve coordination among local and regional offices nationwide.

Under the enhanced referral system, OFWs can receive assistance through various government touchpoints including OWWA Regional Welfare Offices (RWOs), DTI Negosyo Centers, Provincial Help Desks, and Reintegration Centers.

This integrated approach is expected to make government services more accessible and responsive to the needs of OFWs in different parts of the country.

By strengthening coordination and streamlining procedures, agencies hope to reduce confusion among applicants while ensuring faster processing and more efficient delivery of support services.

How OFWs Can Learn More About the Program

According to OWWA, interested OFWs may learn more about the OFW Negosyo Fund and related livelihood programs through several channels.

Applicants may visit the nearest OWWA Regional Welfare Office (RWO) or DTI-SB Corp Regional Office for inquiries regarding eligibility requirements, loan procedures, and available entrepreneurship assistance.

OWWA also encouraged OFWs to watch the “Kabuhayan Wednesday” livestream hosted by OWWA RWO NCR, where various livelihood opportunities and government programs for OFWs are discussed.

The agency continues to promote awareness campaigns to ensure more overseas Filipino workers can access available financial and reintegration assistance programs.

Strengthening Financial Security for OFWs

The partnership between OWWA and DTI-SB Corp reflects the government’s broader strategy of helping OFWs achieve greater financial security through entrepreneurship and livelihood development.

For many overseas Filipino workers, establishing a successful business represents an opportunity to eventually return home permanently while maintaining stable income for their families.

As the Philippine government continues to expand reintegration initiatives, programs like the OFW Negosyo Fund are expected to play an increasingly important role in supporting returning OFWs who aspire to become entrepreneurs.

With improved coordination, expanded access to financing, and enhanced support systems, more OFWs may soon have the opportunity to transform their overseas earnings into sustainable businesses and long-term financial stability.