The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked a federal court to expedite its ruling against Minnesota before the state’s prediction-market ban takes effect on Aug. 1.

CFTC presses court as Aug. 1 deadline approaches

The CFTC requested expedited handling of its motion for a preliminary injunction, according to its latest court filing. The regulator said a decision is needed before Minnesota’s new law takes effect later this week.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed the measure in May. It makes creating, operating, facilitating, or advertising a prediction market in the state a criminal offense.

The CFTC sued Minnesota on May 19, arguing that the state law interferes with the federal derivatives framework established under the Commodity Exchange Act. The agency asked the court to block enforcement while the wider legal dispute proceeds.

A hearing has already taken place, but the judge has not ruled on the preliminary injunction request. The Commission said it would treat the motion as constructively denied if the court neither issues a decision nor temporarily stays the law by July 28.

In that event, the regulator plans to seek interim relief from the federal appeals court.

Kalshi and Polymarket join request for temporary stay

Kalshi and Polymarket have filed separate challenges seeking to stop Minnesota from enforcing the ban. Both platforms joined the request for a temporary administrative stay while the court considers their preliminary injunction motions.

The companies also indicated that they would treat their motions as constructively denied if the court does not act by the stated deadline. They could then pursue relief at the appellate level alongside the CFTC.

The dispute centers on whether event contracts offered through federally regulated exchanges fall exclusively under the CFTC’s authority or may also be restricted through state gambling laws.

Minnesota considers prediction markets a form of gambling that can expose residents to addiction and financial harm. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has taken the opposing position, arguing that Minnesota’s law would turn federally regulated operators and participants into felons.

For U.S. users, the ruling could determine whether access to prediction markets depends on their state of residence. A decision favoring Minnesota may also encourage other states to pursue direct bans or enforce gambling rules against event-contract platforms.

CFTC tightens oversight of event-contract filings

The court fight does not mean the CFTC supports unrestricted prediction markets. The agency has also increased its scrutiny of how registered exchanges introduce new event contracts.

As crypto.news previously reported, the CFTC issued its second warning of the year on July 24 over broad, template-style self-certification filings. Its Division of Market Oversight instructed exchanges to provide contract-specific terms, settlement procedures, data sources and compliance analysis.

Designated contract markets may still use self-certification to list qualifying contracts without waiting for advance Commission approval. However, the regulator said one filing cannot cover an open-ended range of contract variations unless it includes enough detail for each product.

The advisory shows that the federal-state dispute concerns regulatory authority rather than whether prediction markets should operate without oversight. The CFTC maintains that federally registered platforms must follow the Commodity Exchange Act and the agency’s rules, including product-level disclosure requirements.

Federal prediction-market framework gains support

The Minnesota case comes as the CFTC considers broader rules for event contracts. Its proposal would guide reviews of contracts linked to gaming, war, terrorism, assassination and conduct that violates federal or state law.

The public comment period closed on July 27. Hyperliquid Policy Center and Multicoin Capital submitted a joint filing supporting written federal standards.

The groups argued that exchange-traded contracts differ from traditional wagers because participants trade with each other rather than against a bookmaker.

“A bet with a bookmaker is a wager against the house: the house sets the odds and wins when you lose. An exchange-traded contract is a trade between two willing participants at a market price, and the venue’s business is matching that trade for a fee, whichever side wins.”

Hyperliquid Policy Center and Multicoin said forcing registered platforms to comply with 50 separate state gambling regimes would fragment the federal market structure. Minnesota maintains that states retain authority to protect residents from products they view as unlicensed gambling.

The immediate question now rests with the federal court. A ruling or temporary stay before Aug. 1 would preserve current access while the litigation continues, while no action could send the CFTC, Kalshi and Polymarket directly to the appeals court.

The cuts come as the crypto industry grapples with a prolonged downturn. After three consecutive quarters of declines, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to around $2.1 trillion at the end of the second quarter, while trading volumes weakened and retail participation slowed amid higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent outflows from crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF).

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $6.9 billion of net outflows in May and June. While flows have recovered in July, including a six-day streak of inflows, the rebound remains modest relative to the withdrawals seen during the broader market downturn.

Uphold stressed that it is not closing its U.K. operations or any of its international offices, adding that all locations remain fully staffed and operational.

The firm’s enterprise platform enables banks, fintechs and broker-dealers to integrate digital asset services for their own customers, an area the company said is seeing rapid growth.

The momentum in that business, combined with weaker retail demand, made the restructuring necessary as it shifts personnel and investment toward enterprise products. Further growth announcements are expected in the coming months, the company said.

The firm remains bullish on the long-term outlook for the retail market. “In 2026, we’re expanding our popular consumer app into a multi-asset, blockchain-enabled financial companion,” McLoughlin said. “By year end, the app will offer US stocks, tokenized securities, asset-backed lending, credit cards, prediction markets and enhanced DeFi yield opportunities on assets including XRP,” he added.

Binance Futures launched three USDT-settled perpetual contracts tied to the ProShares Bitcoin ETF and two long-duration U.S. Treasury products on July 27.

Binance Futures adds three ETF-linked contracts

Binance Futures began rolling out the three USDⓈ-M perpetual contracts at 13:30 UTC, according to a July 27 exchange announcement.

TMFUSDT opened first, followed by TBTUSDT at 13:35 UTC and BITOUSDT at 13:40 UTC. Each contract uses USDT as its settlement asset and allows traders to take long or short positions without an expiration date.

TMFUSDT tracks the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF. The underlying fund seeks to deliver three times the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.

TBTUSDT follows the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF, which targets twice the inverse daily performance of its long-duration Treasury benchmark. This means the underlying ETF generally benefits when long-term U.S. Treasury bond prices decline.

BITOUSDT is linked to the ProShares Bitcoin ETF, or BITO. The U.S.-listed fund provides Bitcoin exposure primarily through futures contracts rather than holding Bitcoin directly.

New contracts offer leverage of up to 25x

Binance set the maximum leverage for each contract at 25x. The minimum order size is 0.01 units, while every order must carry a notional value of at least 5 USDT.

Funding payments will take place every eight hours, with the funding rate capped between negative 2% and positive 2%. Binance set the base interest rate used in the funding calculation at 0%.

The contracts also support Multi-Assets Mode. Eligible traders can use several supported assets as margin instead of relying only on the contract’s settlement currency.

However, Binance said its funding-interval adjustment mechanism will not apply to the three products. Their funding cycle will remain at eight hours even when the rate reaches its upper or lower limit or when no funding payment is required.

Trading will remain available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. That differs from the underlying U.S.-listed ETFs, which trade during defined exchange sessions.

Binance may later change the products’ leverage limits, funding rates, tick sizes and margin requirements in response to market conditions.

ETF derivatives support Binance’s super app strategy

The launch expands Binance’s presence in tokenized traditional finance by giving crypto traders exposure to Bitcoin futures and opposing views on long-duration U.S. government bonds through one derivatives platform.

Crypto.news reported earlier in July that Binance is working to develop a broader financial “super app” built around trading, payments, stablecoins and investment products.

Shunyet Jan, Binance’s head of spot trading and derivatives, said trading remains central to the platform but no longer represents its entire target market.

“We’re trying to not just be a crypto exchange, but be a super app that involves payment.”

The new perpetual contracts fit that strategy by bringing references to established U.S. investment products into Binance’s round-the-clock trading environment. They also let users trade interest-rate and Bitcoin themes without buying shares of the underlying ETFs.

What the contracts mean for US traders

Although the three contracts reference ETFs listed on NYSE Arca, Binance warned that the products may not be available in every region. A U.S.-listed underlying asset does not automatically make its Binance-linked perpetual contract available to U.S. customers.

Binance.US operates as a separate U.S.-only company with its own governance. Its chief executive, Stephen Gregory, recently said the platform aims to reclaim 20% of the U.S. crypto trading market after a two-year period of regulatory pressure.

Binance.com’s new futures contracts therefore should not be confused with a Binance.US product launch. U.S. traders must consider platform eligibility and local derivatives rules before attempting to access similar leveraged products.

The launch also comes days after Binance placed Across Protocol, Lisk and Stacks under its Monitoring Tag on July 24. Those tokens remain tradable, but Binance is reviewing their volatility, liquidity, development activity and operational risk more closely.

Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of July under the pressure of shifting US macro expectations, with traders focused on two near-term catalysts: the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and new inflation data that could influence rate expectations. At the same time, market participants are watching whether the usual ties between crypto and traditional risk assets are returning or fading—an issue that has become more relevant as equities show signs of wobbling.

With US bond yields elevated and oil reacting to geopolitical developments, the next few days could determine whether Bitcoin’s relatively tight trading behavior turns into a decisive breakout—or a renewed pullback. On-chain signals add another layer: CryptoQuant reports that BTC whale inflows to Binance have cooled materially since mid-June.

Key takeaways

• FedWatch data from CME Group assigns a roughly one-in-three chance of a July hike, while pointing to higher odds for September.
• Markets will get a fresh read on inflation Thursday via the June PCE report, which IMEN expects to moderate to 3.7% year over year.
• Bitcoin’s correlation with major equity indices appears weak on higher timeframes, but geopolitical and macro shocks could re-link the markets.
• CryptoQuant data shows BTC inflows from whales to Binance have fallen as much as 44% since June 12, with retail inflows declining less sharply.
• Technically, Bitcoin is testing a widely watched 50-month trend level, where sell-side activity could determine whether the range holds.

Fed and inflation headline risk returns to the front of crypto

The immediate driver for risk assets remains the US interest-rate outlook. Attention is centered on the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision set for Wednesday, July 29, chaired by Kevin Warsh. Expectations around further tightening have remained volatile, with geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns keeping the possibility of additional rate hikes on the table.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a hike at the upcoming meeting is about 31%, while odds for a September increase are higher—around 50%.

Those expectations were not static. Earlier Monday, oil prices fell about 8% after developments involving the US and Iran paused strikes, according to the article’s reporting. That shift was reflected in Fed pricing as rate-hike odds moved from 37.4% to 33.7%.

Beyond the headline odds, traders are also tracking bond-market signals. Mosaic Asset Company noted in its “The Market Mosaic” newsletter that the 30-year Treasury yield is testing a breakout level. The firm referenced how, in May, the 30-year yield saw a false move above the 5% resistance area that had held since late 2023. A stronger long-end move can still matter for broader financial conditions—even if the long end plays a smaller direct role in funding the government than it once did.

PCE may offer clues on whether inflation is cooling fast enough

Inflation data is the other pillar for the week. On Thursday, markets will focus on the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with the prior month’s reading described as a three-year high at 4.1% year over year. The report’s importance for crypto lies in how quickly traders can reprice the probability of Fed actions once the inflation trajectory becomes clearer.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to publish the June PCE numbers (as referenced in the article). IMEN, in an X post cited by the report, predicted that June PCE inflation would come in moderately below May, forecasting 3.7% year over year.

That kind of move could help explain the market’s recent sensitivity. The article notes that June’s PCE release coincided with Bitcoin dipping to macro lows around $58,000, underscoring how inflation surprises can quickly ripple through risk sentiment.

Bitcoin’s equity link looks muted—but not immune

One of the more notable themes from the reporting is that Bitcoin’s correlation with major equity benchmarks has appeared unusually weak on longer timeframes. TradingView data referenced in the article suggests the daily correlation between BTC/USD and the S&P 500—using a 20-week loopback window—is “practically absent,” at levels not seen since March. Against the Nasdaq Composite, the correlation coefficient is reported around 0.11, last observed in mid-February.

That matters because it implies Bitcoin may be trading more on its own set of drivers than pure equity beta. However, the report cautions that bearish macro or geopolitical developments can still force correlations back into view, especially when markets are repricing discount rates.

Equities themselves are not providing a clean tailwind. US corporate earnings have reportedly continued to exceed expectations, but the article points to historically elevated valuations as a reason rallies may struggle to absorb further shocks. It also highlights that several major tech names saw notable drawdowns in the prior week, with “Magnificent 7” losses totaling about 5.3% through Friday, after earlier sell-offs tied to $GOOGL and $TSLA.

Even so, the Kobeissi Letter cited in the article argued that margins and earnings beats remain strong across the S&P 500 so far, and that AI is supporting earnings growth. Investors should recognize the tension here: solid earnings can reduce the immediate pressure, but higher rates can still cap multiples and undermine market breadth.

From exchange flows to BTC price levels: what to watch next

Alongside macro risk, crypto-specific positioning is also under scrutiny. CryptoQuant’s analysis—quoted in the article—focuses on BTC transfer flows to Binance. The firm reports that whale inflows to Binance have dropped by as much as 44% since June 12, while retail inflows have fallen 22%.

In the same blog post referenced by the article, contributor Amr Taha wrote that retail inflows are roughly twice whale inflows, leaving a gap of $3.9 billion. The interpretation offered is that the composition of transfers has shifted: retail participants are currently more active than whales in sending BTC to exchanges.

That distinction matters because exchange inflows can influence sell-side readiness, though it does not automatically translate into immediate selling. Still, Taha frames the FOMC meeting as a “major macro catalyst” that could test whether this divergence between retail and whale behavior persists or starts to converge.

The report also points to signs of active redistribution at Binance, noting single-day withdrawals of over 9,000 BTC last week, as previously covered by Cointelegraph.

On the market chart, Bitcoin’s near-term behavior remains range-bound. After the Sunday weekly close, the article says BTC reached a local high of $65,680 on Bitstamp, but it remains engaged in a familiar contest with the 50-month exponential moving average trend line. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is cited warning that sell-side pressure appears to be building at this resistance area.

Rekt Capital’s view, as quoted, is that if seller volume dominates while Bitcoin is held at resistance, rejection becomes more likely. The analysis also references the 200-week simple moving average, describing price as “sandwiched” between the 200-week SMA and the 50-month EMA—setting up a scenario where continued compression could eventually force a volatility expansion.

For traders and long-term observers alike, the next key questions revolve around whether macro data and the Fed decision reinforce current risk pricing or trigger a sharper repricing. If PCE and post-FOMC guidance confirm a higher-for-longer path, Bitcoin’s exchange-flow shifts and its resistance-area compression may matter more than usual; if inflation cools meaningfully, the market could regain room to break out of its current “boring” range.

Strategy’s (MSTR) cash reserve now stands at $3.75 billion after the company raised $544.5 million last week.

That $3.75 billion is enough for 2.1 years of preferred stock dividend coverage, according to Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.

The money was raised through sales of more than 5.4 shares of common stock, per an SEC filing Monday morning.

A small portion of the raised money last week — $25 million — was used to buy back 288,930 shares of its high-yielding preferred stock STRC.

The company made no changes to its bitcoin holdings, which remain at 843,775 coins.

MSTR and its high-yielding preferred stock STRC are each higher by about 2.5% pre-market as bitcoin rose to $65,000 over the weekend.