Microsoft Corp. shares rose Monday morning, climbing 2.05% to $389.52, as investors positioned ahead of one of the company’s most closely watched earnings reports in years, with the stock gaining $7.82 in early trading on the Nasdaq.

The advance came alongside broader gains across major technology names, as Wall Street braced for a wave of Big Tech earnings this week that will test whether massive artificial intelligence spending is translating into sustainable growth.

Tech Stocks Rise Together Ahead of Earnings Wave

Microsoft’s gain was part of a sector-wide move Monday morning. Tech stocks rose broadly amid tentative optimism ahead of a flood of Big Tech earnings this week, with Alphabet climbing 2.09%, Microsoft up 2.09%, Meta Platforms adding 0.70% and Apple gaining 1.04%, even as Nvidia declined nearly 4%. Results from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple and Amazon headline the calendar this week, alongside reports from chipmakers including SK Hynix and Qualcomm, with investors paying particularly close attention to capital expenditure figures after Alphabet’s own capex guidance had previously unsettled markets amid growing concerns about free cash flow during the AI spending boom.

A Difficult Year Heading Into Results

Monday’s rally offered some relief after a rocky stretch for Microsoft shares. The stock had finished the prior session at $381.70, up just 0.03%, before climbing further in pre-market trading as investors weighed resilient Azure cloud growth and an attractive valuation against enormous AI spending commitments, uncertain returns on its Copilot AI assistant, and a weak technical chart structure. Despite the recent recovery attempt, the stock has lost around 25% over the past year and remains more than 30% below its record high.

That decline has put added pressure on Microsoft’s upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter report. The company is scheduled to report results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 29, in what analysts are describing as one of its most important earnings releases in years, with investors demanding evidence that the company’s enormous AI investments can generate sufficient returns.

Copilot and Azure Take Center Stage

A key focus for investors heading into the report is Microsoft’s push to embed its Copilot AI assistant more deeply into its core software products. Microsoft 365 Business began embedding Copilot more directly starting July 1, shifting the tool closer to a standard feature rather than a separate paid add-on, a strategy that could boost paid adoption and increase revenue per customer. Some estimates suggest Copilot could exceed 25 million paid enterprise seats by the end of 2026 if deployment continues to accelerate, though investors still lack clarity on usage, retention and profitability metrics tied to the product.

That uncertainty is compounded by an increasingly crowded competitive landscape. Competition from ChatGPT, Claude, Google’s Gemini and lower-cost open-weight models has intensified, and customers may grow reluctant to expand their AI spending if token consumption produces unpredictable costs. Microsoft will need to demonstrate that Copilot can meaningfully improve Microsoft 365 growth, deepen customer relationships and support pricing power, rather than simply representing another costly infrastructure obligation.

Analysts Watching Earnings Per Share and Cloud Growth

Wall Street’s expectations for Wednesday’s report are already taking shape. Analyst consensus calls for earnings per share of $4.21 for the quarter, with Microsoft’s next dividend, valued at $0.91 per share, set to go ex-dividend on August 20. The company carries a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 22.73 and trailing twelve-month earnings per share of $16.79, with a one-year analyst price target of $556.75, well above where the stock currently trades. Microsoft’s market capitalization stood at roughly $2.835 trillion as of recent trading, with average daily volume near 27.6 million shares.

A Rotation Into AI Software Names

Monday’s gains also fit into a broader shift some analysts have identified in recent weeks, as investors rotate capital between different corners of the AI trade. Analysts have noted that big gains for AI hardware leaders throughout 2026 may be raising valuation concerns, prompting some investors to pivot capital into software players like Microsoft instead. While that rotation trend could continue to support Microsoft’s share price if it persists, it remains uncertain whether investor appetite for AI-linked software stocks will hold up given ongoing macroeconomic risks.

What’s at Stake Wednesday

Microsoft’s earnings call will offer investors their clearest look yet at how the company’s aggressive AI infrastructure buildout is translating into financial results. Following the release, Chief Executive Satya Nadella and other members of Microsoft’s senior leadership team are expected to host a live conference call with Wall Street analysts to walk through the results. That call is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on July 29.

Given the size of Microsoft’s cloud and AI investments, the report is expected to carry outsized influence over sentiment across the broader technology sector this week, particularly as Amazon, Meta and Apple prepare to report their own results in the days that follow. Investors will be watching closely for updates on Azure’s growth rate, capital expenditure guidance for the coming fiscal year, and any commentary from Nadella on how enterprise customers are responding to Copilot pricing and adoption.

With markets already jittery over the scale of AI-related spending commitments across the technology sector, including a separate financing arrangement involving Nvidia and OpenAI disclosed over the weekend, Microsoft’s results are likely to be parsed for signs of whether the broader AI investment cycle is beginning to pay off, or whether concerns about overspending and murky returns will continue to weigh on the sector heading into the fall.

Oracle Corp. shares surged Monday morning, rising 4.59% to $120.26, as the enterprise software giant benefited from a wave of new government contract news even as the stock continues working to recover from a sharp multi-month decline.

The gains added $5.28 to Oracle’s share price by mid-morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, extending a bounce that has taken shape over the past several sessions after the stock touched fresh 52-week lows earlier this month.

A Major Defense Department Win

The rally was driven largely by optimism around expanding cloud infrastructure and AI partnerships, after Oracle secured a 10-year enterprise software deal with the U.S. Department of War worth up to roughly $7 billion, creating a long-term revenue anchor for the company and helping consolidate what had been fragmented government procurement. In a separate contract, Oracle landed a five-year U.S. Navy indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity agreement carrying a base value of $3.31 billion, with options that could lift total potential spending to $6.99 billion across software, software-as-a-service and consulting work.

The back-to-back government wins give Oracle a substantial and relatively predictable revenue stream at a time when investors have grown increasingly focused on how quickly the company can convert its enormous cloud backlog into recognized revenue.

Not All the News Was Positive

The rally came despite some headwinds tied to Oracle’s data center expansion plans. Wisconsin regulators upheld strict credit rules that may force Oracle to post more than $7 billion in collateral for its planned AI-focused data center in the state, a requirement that could add more than $100 million in annual financing costs. Separately, CLSA initiated coverage of Oracle with a Hold rating and a $145 price target, signaling cautious sentiment on the stock and voicing a preference for Microsoft and Adobe within the enterprise software space.

Those mixed signals reflect the broader tension that has defined Oracle’s stock performance in recent months: a company with enormous long-term cloud demand but rising near-term costs tied to building out the infrastructure needed to meet it.

A Steep Recent Decline

Monday’s gain follows one of the sharpest pullbacks Oracle has experienced this year. From early July highs near $149, Oracle shares slid to about $115 by July 24, a sharp reset for a company of its size. The stock’s chart remains in a longer-term downtrend, trading well below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a “death cross” pattern that formed in January, when the 50-day moving average slid below the 200-day average, continuing to dominate the technical picture on every rebound attempt.

Even so, the stock’s relative strength index has shown deeply oversold conditions, a reading that often signals selling pressure has stretched far enough to spark sharp countertrend bounces even when the broader trend remains negative. Shares have been trading just above their 52-week low of $127.60 and remain far from their 52-week high of $345.72, keeping the overall chart in repair mode despite recent bursts of strength.

Other data trackers put the stock’s recent low even lower. Shares have traded as low as $120.03 over the past year, sitting roughly 27% below the 52-week high of $341.82.

The Case for a Longer-Term Rebound

Despite the recent volatility, some analysts remain optimistic about Oracle’s longer-term trajectory, pointing to the size of its contracted future business. Bulls argue Oracle could reach a new high by 2027, contingent on the company converting a meaningful slice of its $638 billion in remaining performance obligations into recognized revenue on schedule, sustaining growth in its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business above 60%, and restoring free cash flow so markets stop reacting negatively to every capital expenditure disclosure. Over the past decade, Oracle shares have returned nearly 259%, underscoring the stock’s long runway of growth even through periodic steep pullbacks.

That backlog has been a central talking point for Oracle bulls throughout the year, particularly as the company has leaned heavily into AI-related cloud infrastructure spending to meet demand from large enterprise and government customers.

Broader Momentum in Cloud and AI Partnerships

Oracle’s recent contract wins build on a string of positive developments tied to its cloud business. Oracle’s share price gains in recent weeks have been tied to growth in cloud infrastructure and AI integration, with partnerships involving major hyperscale cloud providers helping expand the company’s enterprise customer base and improve revenue visibility.

The company has also drawn attention for potential wins beyond U.S. borders. Oracle shares climbed in a separate session after a report revealed the company had emerged as the frontrunner to deliver a highly classified cloud infrastructure contract for the Japanese government, adding to a growing list of large public-sector deals across multiple countries.

With the stock still trading well below its 52-week high and carrying a mixed technical picture, Monday’s jump is likely to be viewed by traders as a test of whether Oracle can build sustained momentum or whether the bounce will fade back toward its recent lows. Analysts have flagged the low $150s as a key resistance zone tied to the stock’s 20-day moving average, while the $127.60 area marks a critical support level that bulls will want to defend to avoid renewed breakdown risk.

For now, the combination of major new government contracts and a technically oversold setup appears to have given Oracle shares enough momentum to overcome lingering concerns about data center financing costs and mixed analyst sentiment, at least for Monday’s trading session.

Mastercard Inc. shares climbed Monday morning, rising 2.19% to $551.66, adding $11.84 as investors positioned ahead of the payments giant’s second-quarter earnings report due later this week, part of a broader rally across major financial and technology names.

The gains extend a strong recent run for Mastercard shares, which have been building momentum over the past several weeks amid a string of bullish analyst calls and growing anticipation for Thursday’s results.

Earnings on Deck This Week

Mastercard is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2026 financial results on July 30. Analysts expect the payments company to report profit of roughly $4.75 to $4.77 per share, representing growth of about 14.5% to 14.9% from the year-ago quarter, with the company having topped Wall Street’s earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. For the full 2026 fiscal year, analysts project Mastercard will report profit of $19.61 per share, up 15.3% from $17.01 per share in fiscal 2025.

That track record of consistently beating expectations has helped build investor confidence heading into Thursday’s report, with many on Wall Street expecting another strong quarter powered by resilient global consumer spending.

Analysts Turn Increasingly Bullish

A wave of positive analyst commentary has accompanied Mastercard’s climb in recent weeks. Baird raised its price target on the stock to $680 from $660 on July 7 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating, with the firm citing expectations for revenue growth acceleration in upcoming quarters as comparisons ease following the anniversary of the Capital One and Discover Financial impacts on the payments landscape. The firm also pointed to healthy transaction yields and better-than-expected margins that could help offset modestly worse foreign exchange volatility and higher interest expenses tied to a new debt package.

Other major firms have echoed that optimism. Barclays initiated coverage of Mastercard with an Overweight rating and a $640 price target, citing the company’s positioning as a durable franchise following a broader sector reset. Truist, meanwhile, trimmed its price target on the stock slightly to $554 from $561 ahead of the earnings report, a more cautious note among an otherwise largely bullish analyst community.

Among 39 analysts covering the stock, 31 currently recommend “Strong Buy,” four suggest “Moderate Buy,” and four rate it a “Hold,” with a mean price target of $639.76 implying more than 23% potential upside from recent trading levels. A separate tally of 41 analysts puts the average rating for Mastercard at “Strong Buy,” with a 12-month price target of $644.24, representing nearly 19% upside from the stock’s most recent closing levels.

A Strong Technical Setup

Mastercard’s share price has shown notable strength in recent trading sessions, building a technical foundation ahead of earnings. The stock recently traded well above its 20-week and 50-week moving averages and significantly above its 200-week average, closing at the top of its weekly trading range and maintaining strong bullish momentum relative to all key weekly moving averages. Weekly price action has remained volatile, with the stock’s expected trading corridor for the coming week estimated between $517 and $563.

Business Momentum Beyond the Numbers

Alongside its financial performance, Mastercard has continued expanding its product offerings and global partnerships. The company recently announced a series of enhancements to Mastercard In Control, including advanced virtual card controls designed to help reduce risk across the full payment lifecycle. Mastercard also launched its fourth Innovation Circuit in Singapore, focused on advancing artificial intelligence, digital identity and tokenization technologies for future payment systems.

The company has also continued building out its digital asset strategy. Mastercard joined the Open USD stablecoin consortium as part of an effort to modernize its digital payment capabilities, while a preliminary resolution of swipe-fee litigation has reduced a source of major legal uncertainty facing the company. Piper Sandler also upgraded Mastercard to a strong-buy rating, citing the company’s robust financial health.

Dividend Signals Confidence

Mastercard’s capital return program has also drawn positive attention from investors in recent weeks. Shares popped 2.2% on June 16 after the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.87 per share, underscoring its strong cash generation and commitment to returning capital to shareholders. That dividend is scheduled to be paid on August 7, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 9, 2026, a move management has framed as reflecting confidence in the company’s financial strength and long-term growth prospects.

A Broader Market Tailwind

Monday’s gains for Mastercard also came against a generally supportive market backdrop, with major technology and financial names posting broad gains in early trading as investors looked ahead to a heavy week of corporate earnings across sectors, including reports from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Apple later in the week.

What Investors Will Watch Thursday

Heading into Wednesday’s close and Thursday’s pre-market release, analysts will be watching closely for updates on consumer spending trends, cross-border transaction volumes, and any commentary from Mastercard’s leadership on how the company’s expanding stablecoin and AI-driven payment initiatives are progressing. Investors are also expected to focus on management’s commentary regarding risks tied to potential shifts in credit card competition and interchange regulation, along with updates on Mastercard’s continued expansion with partners including HSBC, SAP and Citi.

With the stock already up sharply over the past month and trading near record territory, Thursday’s results are likely to serve as a key test of whether Mastercard can justify its recent run-up or whether investors will look to lock in gains regardless of the outcome.

Wall Street ended mixed on Monday, as investors awaited guidance from major technology companies in a busy week for quarterly earnings, while also worrying that stubbornly high oil prices could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple are set to report quarterly results this week. Investors were questioning whether a multi-year rally fueled by optimism ‌about artificial intelligence ⁠may be ⁠losing steam.

Investors last week were spooked by quarterly results from Tesla and Alphabet that showed heavy spending on artificial intelligence.

On Monday, crude fell to a one-week low as U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was having “good talks” with Iran and there was a chance of a peace deal, but warned U.S. strikes would resume if the negotiations failed to deliver. Oil prices surged last week, with Brent futures surpassing $100 a barrel, after new strikes on shipping in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 consumer staples index and the health care index both gained.

The PHLX chip index extended its recent selloff. ⁠It is down ‌around 20% from its record high close on June 22 and remains up about 63% in 2026.
Chinese chipmaker CXMT Corp’s stellar debut on Monday and a report that the country has started manufacturing homegrown ⁠DUV chipmaking tools also signaled intensifying competition for the U.S. semiconductor industry. “Today represents a continuation of the rotational market that we’ve seen,” said Bill Merz, head of capital markets research and portfolio construction at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. “Part of the market reaction may be related to that creeping suspicion that perhaps a rate hike is coming.”

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 1.45 points, or 0.02%, to end at 7,413.43 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 41.21 points, or 0.16%, to 24,934.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 255.58 points, or 0.49%, to 52,202.83.

Brent crude prices slid 8% to about $89 a barrel after Washington abruptly suspended ‌a two-week campaign of air strikes against Iran on Saturday in Trump’s latest strategic U-turn in the five-month-old conflict.

Oil companies Occidental Petroleum and Exxon Mobil both dipped.

The Fed’s monetary policy decision is due on Wednesday and traders are projecting a 62% chance ⁠the central bank will leave rates unchanged, with a 38% chance of a 25 basis-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for June is due a day after the central bank’s decision and will be key in shaping market expectations for interest rates later this year.

Analysts on average expect S&P 500 aggregate second-quarter earnings to jump 39% from a year ago, with AI-related stocks accounting for much of that growth, according to LSEG I/B/E/S.

The S&P 500 is trading at around 20 times expected earnings, compared to a 10-year average of 20, according to LSEG data.

Hundreds of user conversations with Anthropic’s popular artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot Claude were found to have been available to essentially anyone using Google or other web browsers.

Links to the chats, some of which included personal and work information, would show up if a user of a search engine like Google used a site-specific search term.

The searches showed Claude chats for which a user had decided to “share” a link had been saved by search engines like Google, leaving them accessible to the broader public.

The search availability of the chat logs was removed over the weekend, but many were saved and shared widely online.

A spokeswoman for Anthropic said that Claude users maintained control over if and when to share conversations they had with the chatbot.

She said links to conversations were “not guessable or discoverable unless people choose to share them themselves”.

“When someone shares a conversation, they are making that content publicly accessible, and like other public web content, it may be archived by third-party services,” the spokeswoman added.

The share option within Claude tells a user that “anyone with the link” may view the contents of that link, but does not explicitly state that the link may end up in Google and search results.

Users on Reddit initially discovered, external the publicly available chats, which covered more than 200 conversations with Claude across at least 25 pages of search results – some taking place just weeks ago.

In the conversations, users prompted the chatbot to respond to a wide array of topics.

Chat logs include a user asking Claude last year whether it wanted “to help me or do you want to help anthropic more?”. The chatbot responded in part, saying “I experience something like wanting to help you”.

In one conversation from April, a user prompted Claude to draft an unpublished blog post about cloud security involving details of a corporate project. In another from last month, a user asked Claude how to “become become Nine-tailed fox?”, before clarifying they wanted to literally transform from human to the creature.

Claude first tried to show the user an AI-generated image claiming they had been given “fully functional fox powers!”.

Other conversations with Claude included users seeking help with their resumes, including their names, contact information and work history. Some users even conducted what appeared to be proprietary research for their work, such as in healthcare, including transcripts of private conversations.

When OpenAI last year experienced an almost identical issue with ChatGPT chat logs being made publicly accessible, external, the company ultimately changed, external the ease with which such logs were accessible.

A spokesman for Google made clear to the BBC that the company does not control “what pages are made public on the web,” saying instead that action comes from websites.

“We give site owners clear controls to decide whether pages can be crawled or indexed, and we always respect those directives.”

As the search indexing of the chat logs is no longer occurring, it is likely Anthropic used available tools to quickly block the chat log links from search results. Google’s process for a website owner to block a link, external is straightforward, but must be initiated by a website owner.

Other search engines like Bing, Brave and Duck Duck Go, through which the Claude chat logs also appeared, were approached for comment.