Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) started 2026 with a steep slide and is on track for a challenging first quarter, echoing patterns seen in prior bear markets. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has fallen about 22% since January, slipping from roughly $87,700 to the mid-$60k range, with recent prints near $68,000. If that pace holds, Q1 could mark the worst start to a year since the 2018 bear market, when BTC tumbled almost 50%, according to data tracked by CoinGlass. Ether (CRYPTO: ETH), the second-largest asset, has also pushed lower in the year’s early weeks, though its losses have been comparatively milder, aligning with a broader risk-off mood across crypto markets.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is down roughly 22% year-to-date, trading around $68.6k after opening near $87.7k, signaling entrenched near-term softness.
• The first quarter could become the worst since 2018 for BTC, with 2018 data showing a 49.7% quarterly decline according to CoinGlass.
• Ether has fared similarly in its own context, with about 34.3% losses in the current Q1—the third-worst start among nine observed first quarters historically.
• BTC has posted five straight weeks of losses, including a January drop of around 10.2% and a February trend that remains negative, needing a reversal above $80k to avert further red printing in February.
• Analysts describe the move as a routine correction within a longer-term backdrop of rising institutional interest and halving-cycle dynamics, rather than a structural breakdown.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. The price has declined to about $68,670, indicating ongoing downside pressure in the near term.

Market context: The sector remains sensitive to macro headwinds and liquidity conditions, with a focus on how institutional adoption and supply-side cycles could shape a potential rebound later in the year.

Why it matters

From a market structure perspective, the current pullback highlights how crypto assets are trading in a risk-off environment even as macro narratives evolve. Bitcoin’s retreat from the high-70s and into the 60k territory reflects a mix of profit-taking, cautious positioning by retail participants, and a broader test of support levels after a period of elevated volatility. The context matters because BTC’s price level often informs broader risk appetite in the sector, influencing altcoins and the trajectory of liquidity in the ecosystem.

Historically, the first quarter has displayed pronounced volatility for crypto. In 2018, during a brutal bear market, BTC shed almost half of its value within three months, a benchmark often cited by traders and analysts when assessing risk. In 2025 and 2020, Q1 saw notable declines as well, though the magnitude varied. The current quarter’s descent—paired with ETH’s sharp, yet comparatively less severe, slide—appears to align with a broader pattern: macro uncertainties tend to weigh on risk assets early in the year, even as final-year catalysts or structural developments remain in view.

One factor driving the current mood is the perpetual tug-of-war between risk-off sentiment and the long-run thesis for crypto assets. On one hand, institutions have continued to explore exposure and on-chain activity has shown resilience in certain metrics. On the other hand, macro headwinds—rising rates expectations, liquidity considerations, and geopolitical dynamics—can confine upside moves in the near term. In this context, market participants are watching crucial levels to gauge whether the pullback is a temporary correction or the onset of a more protracted downturn.

Within the price action, BTC’s five-week losing streak underscores a persistent near-term weakness. A slide of around 2.3% in the preceding 24 hours, with prices hovering around $68,670 at press time, suggests a market that remains sensitive to any fresh negative catalysts. CoinGecko tracks Bitcoin’s price and confirms the current trading range, reinforcing the view that a meaningful rebound would require catalysts beyond mere technical bounce—potentially including improved macro clarity or a renewed wave of institutional buying interest.

What to watch next

• Price level to watch: Whether BTC can reclaim the $80,000 threshold to halt or reverse the February red trend.
• Near-term performance: The next weekly closes to determine if the five-week streak of losses ends or extends.
• ETH trajectory: Whether Ether’s decline moderates alongside BTC or diverges due to sector-specific catalysts.
• Macro and on-chain signals: Monitoring shifts in liquidity conditions, risk sentiment, and any halving-cycle-related dynamics that could bolster a longer-term recovery.
• Institutional flow indicators: Any uptick in demand from well-funded participants that could support a sustained move higher once macro conditions stabilize.

Sources & verification

• CoinGlass data on Bitcoin’s quarterly performance and historical comparisons to 2018 (bear market) data.
• CoinGecko price data confirming BTC around $68k–$69k and daily movement metrics.
• LVRG Research commentary from Nick Ruck on BTC’s correctional phase and long-term resilience.
• Twitter/X reference to DaanCrypto’s assessment of Q1 volatility and its historical context.

Bitcoin’s Q1 trajectory amid macro headwinds and halving dynamics

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is navigating a challenging start to 2026, with a renewed sense of caution across markets. After opening the year near $87,700, the benchmark asset has ceded roughly a quarter of its value, slipping into the mid-60k zone as headlines about liquidity and policy remain in focus. The decline mirrors patterns seen at the outset of prior downturns, where quarterly losses in the double-digit range have not always translated into a permanent downturn but instead have persisted until a new phase of accumulation takes hold. CoinGlass data help frame the severity: the first quarter of 2018, for example, remains the gold standard for a severe quarterly drawdown in the BTC bear era. The current slide has revived debates about whether the market is entering a longer-term correction or simply testing support before a potential resumption of upside.

Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) is not immune to the broader risk-off tone, though its drawdown has followed a somewhat different cadence. The leading altcoin has faced substantial selling pressure in Q1, with losses that stand at roughly 34% so far this quarter. Historically, ETH has shown red in a minority of its first quarters, but the current figure places it among its harsher starts. The divergence between BTC and ETH’s path underscores the nuanced dynamics within the crypto market, where Bitcoin often drives overall market psychology while the altcoin complex trails in response to sector-specific catalysts and cross-asset risk metrics.

Market observers have pointed to a recurring theme: the first quarter has a reputation for volatility in crypto markets, a fact that traders reference when calibrating risk and exposure. Daan Trades Crypto, an analyst cited in recent commentary, notes that quarterly fluctuations tend to be self-contained at the outset of a given year, and that early-year losses do not always predict how the rest of the year will unfold. Such commentary is supported by a broader body of historical data indicating that while Q1 performance can be harsh, it does not invariably preface a structural market decline, particularly when halving cycles and institutional adoption offer longer-term catalysts.

Current price action places BTC at a crossroads. When prices last crossed into the $70k range, buyers often argued for a swift rebound on improved macro sentiment or renewed liquidity. That level has since yielded to selling pressure, and a sustained breach of price levels around $68k–$69k raises the question of whether the market is undergoing a deeper retracement or simply pausing before the next leg up. For traders and investors, the key remains whether macro signals align with on-chain activity and whether the next set of data points—be it inflation prints, rate expectations, or regulatory developments—could tilt the balance in favor of buyers or sellers over the coming weeks.

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