Reform UK’s chances of winning the General Election in 2029 could be hinted at tomorrow as voters head to the polls in a by-election that presents a golden opportunity for Nigel Farage’s party.
In addition to county council elections next May and Parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales the following year, by-elections will be an important bellwether.
By providing insights into public opinion and party performance at the grassroots level, they will serve as a barometer for national sentiment towards Reform ahead of the General Election.
With that in mind, a by-election being held tomorrow for Essex County Council is one to watch.
A seat in the village of Stock, which sits just outside Chelmsford, is up for grabs following the tragic passing of a long-serving Conservative Councillor, Ian Grundy.
Local Reform candidate Thomas Michael Allison will go head-to-head with Labour, Conservatives, the Greens, Lib Dems and an independent.
Reform’s leader, Farage, was recently spotted out and about campaigning with Allison ahead of tomorrow’s vote.
The young candidate stands a good chance of winning as Nigel Farage’s party has made encouraging gains in Essex since the party was formed.
Of its five seats in Parliament, two come from that county – Clacton, and South Basildon and East Thurrock.
Reform also came second in Castle Point, Basildon and Billericay, Rayleigh and Wickford, Thurrock, Brentwood and Ongar, and Maldon.
This foothold augurs well for the May elections next year.
Particular focus will be on Thurrock – a unitary authority in Essex that represents a huge opportunity for the party.
All 49 seats are up for grabs in the county council elections.
MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock James McMurdock is laser-focused on getting voters to turn out.
“I cannot stress enough what an opportunity this is for the people to be and get the change they need,” he posted on X.
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MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock James McMurdock is laser-focused on getting voters to turn out next May
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Reform has also had a boost in national polls.
A poll by Find Out Now conducted in early December 2024 showed the party moving into second place, achieving 24 per cent of voter support—just two points behind the Conservatives at 26 per cent.
This marks the first time Reform has surpassed Labour in national polling, with Labour at 23 per cent.
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