Crypto World
Ethereum Price Prediction: What Are ETH’s Chances of Breaking Above $2K Soon?
Ethereum continues to lack decisive momentum, with the price remaining trapped in consolidation despite its recovery from the June lows. The market is now hovering around the 100-day moving average, while the lower timeframes show ETH compressed between clearly defined support and resistance zones.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, ETH is trading around $1.9K, with the latest candles showing little directional conviction. The most notable development is the horizontal consolidation that has formed around the 100-day moving average, which is currently passing through approximately the same region.
The market has repeatedly fluctuated around this moving average without establishing a sustained move on either side. This lack of momentum suggests neither buyers nor sellers have gained decisive control, leaving ETH in a neutral consolidation phase in the short term.
Nevertheless, the broader structure remains vulnerable. On the upside, the $2.06K-$2.15K zone is the first major resistance area, with the longer-term moving average also converging toward this region. A decisive breakout above it would provide considerably stronger evidence of a bullish structural shift.
Meanwhile, the nearest support sits around $1.81K-$1.84K. Losing this area would weaken the recent recovery and could eventually expose the much more significant $1.53K-$1.57K demand zone. Until either side of the current consolidation is broken with momentum, however, range-bound price action remains the more likely scenario.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour timeframe provides a clearer view of the current range. ETH is oscillating between the $1.80K-$1.84K demand zone and the $1.95K-$1.98K resistance area, with price currently near the middle of this structure at roughly $1.89K.
Importantly, the ascending trendline underneath the recent price action remains intact and is currently acting as dynamic support. The latest selloff briefly tested the trendline around the $1.86K-$1.87K region before buyers stepped in, preserving the sequence of higher lows that has developed since late June.
However, buyers have repeatedly struggled to generate enough momentum to break through the upper boundary. The $1.95K-$1.98K resistance zone has already rejected the market, making it the key obstacle to another bullish leg. A successful breakout could allow ETH to extend toward the upper boundary of the broader ascending channel around $2K and above.
Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending trendline would place renewed pressure on the $1.80K-$1.84K support zone. Losing both would represent a meaningful deterioration in the short-term structure and could open the door to a deeper correction toward the lower support areas.
Sentiment Analysis
The two-week liquidation heatmap captures the liquidity structure that has developed during ETH’s recent consolidation phase. With spot price moving sideways, leveraged positions have accumulated on both sides of the range, creating potential targets for short-term liquidity sweeps.
The most prominent nearby concentration appears above the market around $1.94K-$1.95K, almost directly overlapping with the technical resistance identified on the 4-hour chart. This makes the region particularly important, as a push through the recent highs could trigger short liquidations and potentially accelerate an upside move.
At the same time, slight liquidation liquidity is visible below the market, particularly through roughly the $1.80K-$1.85K region. This aligns closely with the 4-hour demand zone and means a downside sweep cannot be ruled out if the ascending trendline fails.
Overall, the heatmap reinforces the technical picture of a market trapped inside a range with liquidity accumulating at both extremes. Until ETH establishes a decisive breakout, sharp moves toward either side may primarily serve to clear leveraged positions before the market selects a more sustainable direction.
The post Ethereum Price Prediction: What Are ETH’s Chances of Breaking Above $2K Soon? appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
Crypto lending platform CEO faces 15 years in South Korea in $50 million fraud case
The CEO of Delio, identified only as Mr. Jeong, received a 15-year prison sentence in South Korea after being found guilty in a $50 million fraud case that affected more than 1,100 people, local news outlet Newsis reported Thursday.
Delio, which went bankrupt in November 2024, accepted bitcoin and ether deposits, promised high yields and then locked customers out of their funds overnight on June 14, 2023. It
“While operating Delio, the defendant falsely obtained a virtual asset trading license and defrauded victims of approximately 70 billion won in virtual assets,” the Seoul Southern District Court said when handing down the sentence against Mr. Jeong.
Prosecutors initially sought a 20-year prison sentence for Mr. Jeong, but the court threw out a lot of the evidence due to procedural deficiencies, which were brought forward by Mr. Jeong’s lawyers. He was initially accused of defrauding 2,800 victims. The defense lawyers are expected to appeal the sentence.
The ruling against Delio is just one more in a series of crypto-related fraud cases in South Korea. Do Kwon, the South Korean co-founder of Terraform Labs behind the TerraUSD (UST) algorithmic stablecoin and Luna token, orchestrated one of the largest frauds in financial history when the ecosystem collapsed in May 2022, wiping out roughly $40 billion in investor funds. In 2022, seven executives of the crypto exchange V Global were sentenced to prison for a $1.7 billion fraud, with former CEO Lee Byung-gul receiving 22 years.
Crypto World
Ethereum Foundation pivots away from Poseidon in post-quantum plan

Advances in compact proofs have erased Poseidon’s previous performance advantage, according to researcher Justin Drake.
Crypto World
Baltimore Moves to Regulate Prediction Markets for Sports Betting
The City of Baltimore, led by Mayor Brendan Scott, has filed legal actions against two prediction-market platforms—Kalshi and Polymarket—arguing that both companies are effectively running sports-betting operations without the required licenses under Maryland law. The city’s notice, issued Thursday, also alleges that the firms misrepresented the legal status of their products to users.
According to a press release from Baltimore’s mayor’s office, the lawsuits contend that trades on event contracts should be treated as unlawful wagers under state gambling statutes, despite how each company characterizes the instruments. The complaints seek enforcement of consumer protection and gambling-related provisions, framing the dispute as a matter of whether the platforms can operate in Maryland when users are not told—and regulators do not agree—that the activity is legal.
Key takeaways
- Baltimore has sued Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting they run “illegal, unlicensed sports-betting” and mislead users about regulatory status.
- The city’s case centers on whether event contracts are actually wagers under Maryland law, disputing how both platforms describe the products.
- Kalshi’s complaint names multiple trading and brokerage partners, including Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase, over marketing-related claims.
- The dispute adds to an ongoing U.S. federal-versus-state regulatory fight over prediction markets, with expectations of further appeals.
- Polymarket says city-specific enforcement conflicts with the federal framework for platforms operating under CFTC-registered exchange rules.
Baltimore targets “event contracts” as unlawful wagers
In Thursday’s notice, Baltimore’s mayor’s office said both companies operate what it describes as “illegal, unlicensed sports-betting platforms.” The city’s argument is not limited to licensing; it also alleges that the companies misled users about the legality and regulatory treatment of the products.
The core of the lawsuits is how the event contracts are classified. Baltimore argues that transactions conducted through prediction-market platforms are effectively betting arrangements that should be regulated as gambling under state law. The complaint challenges the platforms’ characterization of these instruments and argues that the trades function as wagers tied to real-world outcomes.
Mayor Brendan Scott said the companies are operating sportsbooks without licenses and suggested that simply rebranding the activity will not change what the city views as the underlying legal nature of the trades.
Kalshi case includes prominent distribution partners
One notable feature of Baltimore’s Kalshi-related complaint is the inclusion of well-known trading and brokerage firms as partners. The city’s filing lists Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase among entities connected to the prediction-market platform.
Those companies were accused in the lawsuit of deceptive practices tied to marketing. Baltimore’s complaint alleges that promotional materials presented sports contracts in a way that suggested they could be “lawfully be purchased and traded in Maryland.” By naming these partners, the city is also broadening the enforcement target beyond the platform itself, implying that distribution and marketing conduct may be part of the alleged consumer harm.
For market participants, the inclusion of third-party partners raises the stakes of the dispute: if the litigation hinges on how contracts were marketed and interpreted by users, it could influence how other platforms structure compliance, disclosures, and listing terms across different jurisdictions.
Federal CFTC oversight remains the central fault line
Baltimore’s actions land in the middle of a wider regulatory dispute between federal and state authorities regarding prediction markets. Many experts expect these fights to escalate through appeals, potentially reaching the U.S. Supreme Court.
The disagreement reflects a long-running question: whether event contracts offered by prediction markets fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulatory authority. The CFTC, led by Chair Michael Selig, and companies have argued that event contracts on prediction markets meet the definition of “swaps” under federal oversight. State-level authorities, including Baltimore in this case, dispute that characterization and argue that local gambling laws can still apply.
This tension is not theoretical. Baltimore’s lawsuits explicitly frame the activity as illegal and unlicensed sports betting under Maryland law, while federal arguments emphasize that properly structured prediction-market trading is governed by federal rules rather than a patchwork of state requirements.
Polymarket pushes back on local enforcement
Polymarket responded to the lawsuits by arguing that Baltimore’s approach undermines the federal regulatory design for prediction markets. In a statement provided to Cointelegraph, a Polymarket spokesperson said city-specific action contradicts what they describe as the CFTC’s established framework.
The spokesperson added that courts have recognized prediction markets on CFTC-registered exchanges are governed by federal law rather than state-by-state enforcement. In other words, Polymarket’s position is that the legal classification—and the location of regulatory authority—should not change based on a city’s interpretation of gambling statutes.
The dispute matters for traders and users because a patchwork of enforcement could affect where and how prediction-market contracts are accessible, as well as how platforms handle geofencing, disclosures, and compliance processes across states and municipalities.
What comes next for Baltimore’s lawsuits
With both local action and federal oversight claims pointing in different directions, the most immediate question is how courts will treat the legal characterization of event contracts—particularly whether the transactions will be viewed as wagers under state gambling statutes or as instruments that belong within the CFTC’s federal regulatory scope. Readers should watch for how the cases progress through early rulings and whether higher courts are ultimately asked to settle the federal-versus-state divide.
Crypto World
Ether.fi upgrades neobank with stocks and 4% loans
Ether.fi has upgraded its non-custodial neobank with tokenized stocks and metals, portfolio-backed loans near 4%, payments in over 30 currencies, and programmatic ETHFI buybacks.
Summary
- Ether.fi users can trade tokenized assets and hold them inside self-custodial vaults.
- An Aave market on Optimism supports loans against portfolios at rates currently near 4%.
- Cash card users receive 3% cashback, while higher membership tiers remove certain foreign-exchange fees.
- Tokenized stock trading remains unavailable in the United States and some other markets.
Ether.fi neobank combines trading, loans, and payments
According to Ether.fi’s Thursday announcement, the “Summer” release places crypto trading, tokenized real-world assets, portfolio borrowing, and global payments inside one app designed as an alternative to a traditional bank account.
Through an integration with xStocks, eligible users can buy tokenized equities and commodities alongside their crypto holdings. The assets remain in self-custodial vaults rather than accounts controlled by a centralized exchange, while a social recovery feature gives users a way to restore access if they lose their usual credentials.
Ether.fi said the updated interface uses less crypto-focused language as the project seeks users who may want blockchain-based financial services without navigating several decentralized applications. Instead of moving assets between a wallet, lending protocol, trading platform, and payment provider, customers can access the functions through one app.
Borrowing is handled through a new Aave market running on Optimism. Users can provide assets from their portfolios as collateral and obtain loans at standard decentralized finance rates, which Ether.fi said were around 4% at the time of the announcement.
Borrowed funds can be transferred or spent through the Ether.fi Cash card, allowing customers to access money without first selling the assets held in their portfolios. Users can also spend supported assets directly or continue holding yield-bearing positions as collateral.
“With ether.fi, we’re bridging the gap between decentralized finance and everyday financial needs,” Ether.fi CEO Mike Silagadze said.
Silagadze added that the project wants to replace a conventional bank for many users by offering financial tools that have often been limited to institutions and wealthy clients. According to the chief executive, self-custody and decentralized finance make it possible to provide such services without requiring customers to hand over direct control of their assets to the platform.
Card benefits extend across more than 30 currencies
Under the upgraded service, Ether.fi Cash cardholders will receive 3% cashback on purchases. The company has also removed top-up charges, while customers at higher membership levels can make payments without the foreign-exchange fees normally charged by the platform.
Ether.fi said the new deposit and withdrawal connections support more than 30 currencies and payment methods. Apple Pay and Cash App are included among the supported options, giving eligible customers additional ways to move between fiat money and assets held through the app.
Card availability still depends on a user’s country. Silagadze told The Block that people in places where Ether.fi cannot issue its payment card can use the platform’s staking products or fiat deposit and withdrawal connections instead.
The app builds on a card business that already serves about 500,000 users and has issued roughly 150,000 cards, according to figures Silagadze gave to the publication. Ether.fi previously moved the card from Scroll to Optimism, placing the payment product on the same Ethereum scaling network that now hosts its Aave lending market.
Alongside the customer-facing services, the Summer release introduces programmatic purchases of ETHFI, Ether.fi’s governance token. The announcement said the buybacks will be integrated into the app’s financial model, although it did not provide the purchase schedule, funding formula, or volume expected under the program.
Tokenized stocks remain restricted for U.S. users
American customers will not have access to the tokenized stock trading feature at launch. Ether.fi said the service will also remain unavailable in certain other jurisdictions, while access to cards, fiat connections, and other products will depend on local rules.
The restriction is relevant because xStocks products track shares of publicly traded companies but do not necessarily give holders the same legal position as investors who buy stock through a regulated broker. The exact ownership rights, dividend treatment, collateral structure, and redemption terms depend on how each token is issued.
In July, crypto.news previously reported that tokenized equity ownership across five large platforms had climbed 92% in 30 days to 752,000 holders. Robinhood accounted for 328,000 holders, while xStocks ranked second by asset value at $487 million at the time.
Newer data shows competition in the sector has continued to rise. Binance’s bStocks reached $610.6 million and moved ahead of xStocks less than two months after launching, while Token Terminal data placed the tokenized stock market at approximately $2.7 billion.
U.S. access remains tied to an unresolved regulatory debate. In June, the Securities and Exchange Commission was reportedly considering an exemption that could permit some blockchain platforms to offer tokenized public shares in the country.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce later indicated that any such framework would probably cover digital versions of existing equities that preserve the rights attached to conventional shares. Synthetic products that only follow a company’s stock price without providing shareholder rights were not expected to qualify under the approach she described.
For American investors, Ether.fi’s geographic restriction means the new app does not yet create a direct route to tokenized equities. U.S. users must rely on whichever staking, payment, borrowing, or fiat services Ether.fi is legally able to offer in their location.
Ether.fi expands beyond its restaking roots
Once centered mainly on Ethereum restaking, Ether.fi has spent 2026 adding payment products and other sources of on-chain income. The protocol lets users stake ETH and receive liquid assets such as eETH and weETH, which can then be used in decentralized finance without requiring holders to withdraw the underlying stake first.
Earlier in August, Ether.fi began removing its weETH restaking exposure from EigenLayer and moving toward Symbiotic infrastructure. Symbiotic permits a range of ERC-20 assets to serve as collateral and separates functions such as operator management, reward distribution, and penalty conditions into modules that individual services can configure.
Real-world assets have become another part of Ether.fi’s product set. In June, the protocol allocated $100 million to a Plume vault containing income strategies linked to institutional assets.
Plume said the vault included overcollateralized credit pools, highly rated collateralized loan obligations, and bond exchange-traded funds. Ether.fi ecosystem head Charles Mountain said the capital included managed funds from the protocol’s liquid ETH, liquid USD, and liquid BTC vaults, which held about $300 million in combined value at the time.
In a separate three-year agreement, Ether.fi committed $3 billion in ETH as validator liquidity to ETHGas, an Ethereum platform that operates markets linked to future blockspace. The protocol’s latest product update allows users to keep staked and yield-bearing assets as collateral while accessing loans, transfers, or card spending from the same portfolio.
Crypto World
Reddit Stock Pops 11% on S&P 500 Inclusion Despite Google AI Traffic Concerns
Reddit shares surged 11% in extended trading Thursday after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed the platform will join the S&P 500.
Reddit is only the second pureplay social media stock in the benchmark index after Meta.
Reddit’s Index Debut, By the Numbers
S&P Dow Jones Indices said Reddit (RDDT) will replace AvalonBay Communities in the S&P 500 before trading opens on Aug. 18, 2026, once Equity Residential completes its acquisition of AvalonBay.
Reddit shares climbed to $175.38 in postmarket trading following the news, up from Thursday’s $153.12 close, a gain of nearly 11%, according to TradingView data.
Index funds that track the S&P 500 must now buy Reddit shares to match the benchmark, a mechanical demand shock that helps explain jumps like this even absent fresh business news.
The same announcement added Sun Communities to the S&P MidCap 400 effective Aug. 20, replacing Webster Financial as Banco Santander’s acquisition of Webster nears completion.
Reddit’s addition leaves Meta as the only two pureplay social platforms in the S&P 500. Pinterest and Snap both went public earlier but remain too small by market cap for inclusion, and Twitter exited the index once Elon Musk acquired the company and rebranded it X under SpaceX.
A Rally That Follows a Rough Earnings Reaction
Thursday’s pop arrives less than three weeks after Reddit’s second quarter results split investors. The company posted its eighth straight quarter of revenue growth above 60%, yet shares initially sold off after CEO Steve Huffman flagged uncertainty around Reddit’s dependence on Google for new users.
“Search referrals were choppy in the quarter, and traffic was more volatile later in the quarter.”
Steve Huffman, in a letter to Reddit investors
Huffman tied the volatility to Google’s growing use of Gemini-powered AI Overviews, which answer search queries directly on the results page instead of routing users to sites like Reddit. The concern is not unique to Reddit. AI-generated search summaries are reshaping how publishers and crypto projects compete for visibility online.
S&P 500 membership does not resolve that structural question. It does guarantee Reddit a new base of buyers uninterested in the AI-traffic debate, since index funds must now simply hold the stock.
Reddit joins a short list of once-fringe internet companies using S&P inclusion to cement mainstream investor legitimacy. Coinbase joined the index in 2025, a milestone Strategy has not achieved despite its size.
Whether Reddit’s search-traffic risk resurfaces once the passive-buying wave settles is the open question heading into Aug. 18.
The post Reddit Stock Pops 11% on S&P 500 Inclusion Despite Google AI Traffic Concerns appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Why States Are the Key to the Modern Labor Movement
We worked with a team of labor law scholars, former federal labor officials, worker advocates, and union leaders to develop a Model State Sectoral Bargaining Law to meet this need. The model law would give workers the right to petition a State Labor Standards Board for recognition of a bargaining sector, grant organizing and access rights once minimum support thresholds are met, and create a process through which workers and employers can negotiate sector-wide agreements covering wages, benefits, working conditions, and the use of artificial intelligence and other workplace technology. Every employer in a covered sector would be bound by the resulting agreement, and workplace-level collective bargaining agreements may exceed—but never fall below—the sector-wide standards.
States that act now could immediately ensure that workers ignored by federal law can raise standards for themselves. More broadly, states have an opportunity to build the infrastructure of worker power that this country will need in the years ahead.
Crypto World
Swissquote cuts full-year profit, revenue outlook as first-half crypto income plunges
Swiss banking firm Swissquote Group (SQN) cut full-year revenue and profit forecasts after first-half net crypto income fell 66.2% to 14.6 million Swiss francs ($18 million).
Crypto trading volume at the Gland, Switzerland-based fintech dropped 63.5% to 2.58 billion Swiss francs, according to its results presentation. The company cut its net revenue outlook for the year by around 30 million francs to 730 million francs.
Swissquote said price declines across most cryptocurrencies caused the business to miss its initial assumptions. Bitcoin , the largest cryptocurrency, fell 33% in the six months ended June 30. Ether , the second-largest, dropped 47% and the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) lost 40%.
“The revised guidance now reflects a weaker-than-expected crypto environment,” Swissquote wrote.
Swissquote also booked a 5.3 million-franc loss on the crypto inventory it holds to support trading on its SQX exchange.
Growth in areas such as non-crypto trading and interest income helped keep revenue broadly level and limited the decline in profit. Client assets rose nearly 20% to 96.3 billion francs.
The company’s shares plunged 14% after the announcement.
UPDATE (Aug. 13, 14:05 UTC): Adds areas of growth in penultimate paragraph.
Crypto World
Kennedy Center Board Votes to Put Trump’s Name Back on the Building
Trump’s push to take over the Kennedy Center began just weeks into his second term, when he overhauled the board—which has historically been made up of a bipartisan group of trustees—by terminating half of its 36 members, including longtime chairman David Rubenstein. He then appointed new members in their place, who elected him as chairman.
Major backlash ensued, with many performers boycotting the venue. When Trump visited the center for a performance of Les Misérables last June, he was met with boos from the crowd. Trump also made the controversial decision to host the 2025 Kennedy Center Honors, an award ceremony commemorating achievements across the arts, in December, becoming the first sitting president to do so.
Congress named the center to honor President John F. Kennedy in 1964 following his assassination in November 1963.
The Kennedy Center is far from the only piece of federal property Trump has sought to put his name or face on during his time as President. The slew of items he has moved to impress with his brand also include limited edition passports, currency, other federal buildings, battleships, and national park passes.
Crypto World
Neutrl Pauses Minting and Redemptions While Assessing Reserve Impact

Neutrl, which aims to provide market-neutral yield, paused minting, redemptions, and other protocol functions on Thursday, citing circumstances affecting protocol reserves. NUSD, the protocol’s synthetic dollar, had a market capitalization of about $53.3 million. Neutrl said it acted on advice from… Read the full story at The Defiant
Crypto World
Fed July rate hold was ‘absolutely’ right, Kaplan says
Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan has backed the Federal Reserve’s 9–3 decision to hold interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July while urging policymakers to keep their options open before September.
Summary
- Kaplan said the Fed was right to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.
- Three policymakers supported a quarter-point increase, showing disagreement within the rate-setting committee.
- AI investment, tariffs, labor limits, and oil prices are creating competing inflation forces.
- Kaplan said fiscal deficits and bond supply concern him more than the federal funds rate.
Why Kaplan supports the Fed’s July rate hold
Bloomberg reported that Kaplan, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, described the decision not to raise rates in July as “absolutely” correct because officials still have time to study inflation and economic activity before their next meeting.
“If I see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to stay put, but I want to make full use of every moment before September to make judgments, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions,” Kaplan said.
Serving as Goldman Sachs vice chairman, Kaplan also sits on the bank’s management committee. His comments represent his assessment of monetary policy and should not be treated as a formal Federal Reserve position because he is no longer a policymaker.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 on July 29 to maintain its target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Presidents of the Cleveland, Dallas, and Minneapolis regional Fed banks preferred a 25-basis-point increase, according to the July rate decision previously covered by crypto.news.
Before the announcement, markets had assigned roughly a one-in-three probability to an increase. Bitcoin traded close to $64,100 after the decision, rising only about 0.3% over 24 hours as traders largely expected the Fed to leave borrowing costs unchanged.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided committing to a set path during his post-meeting remarks. Instead of describing the decision as a pause, Warsh said officials were conducting a careful review of economic conditions and would continue examining information before choosing their next step.
Kaplan’s call for flexibility follows the same data-led approach. In his view, firm promises about future rate decisions could become counterproductive when several forces are pushing inflation in opposite directions.
Competing pressures complicate the September decision
Among the inflation risks, Kaplan listed heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, tariffs, limited labor availability, and sharply higher oil prices. Companies building data centers need power, land, equipment, and workers, meaning large investment programs can place added pressure on prices and resources.
Tariffs can also raise the cost of imported goods and materials, while labor shortages may force employers to increase pay or leave positions unfilled. Higher oil prices can reach consumers through fuel, transport, and production costs, making energy markets another important part of the Fed’s assessment.
At the same time, Kaplan said the use of artificial intelligence could help lower inflation by improving productivity. Businesses that produce more with the same number of workers may reduce their costs, although the initial spending needed to build AI systems can create price pressure before those efficiency gains become visible.
Recent U.S. inflation data gave policymakers some evidence of improvement. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier, matching economists’ expectations. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5% in June.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% in July and 2.5% annually. The yearly core rate eased from 2.6%, but headline inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Following the report, traders placed a 67% probability on no September rate change and about a 34% chance of a quarter-point increase, according to Polymarket figures cited in a report on July CPI. Bitcoin recovered from about $63,400 to $64,100, though the expected reading failed to produce a decisive break from its recent range.
Warsh should explain the July decision at Jackson Hole
With the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium approaching, Kaplan said Warsh should use his address to explain briefly why the Fed did not act in July. He argued that a purely “philosophical” speech would offer less value when investors are seeking details about the committee’s decision-making process.
The annual gathering in Wyoming gives central bankers a prominent venue to discuss monetary policy and economic risks. Warsh’s remarks will draw attention from U.S. investors because changes in rate expectations can affect Treasury yields, the dollar, equities, and digital assets.
Clearer reasoning would not require Warsh to promise a September decision. Kaplan’s comments instead suggest that the Fed chair could explain why the July evidence did not justify an immediate increase while preserving the committee’s ability to act if inflation strengthens again.
U.S. employment figures have added another factor to the debate. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, compared with forecasts for an increase of about 80,000 to 85,000, while revisions removed a combined 103,000 jobs from the May and June totals.
After the labor report, the probability of a September hold climbed to 66% from about 50% the day earlier. Analysts cited in an earlier U.S. payrolls report warned that one weak reading might not change the Fed’s position while energy prices and shipping risks remain elevated.
Long-term Treasury yields pose the larger concern
Beyond the September meeting, Kaplan said he is more concerned about long-term U.S. Treasury yields than the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate directly covers overnight lending between banks, while longer-dated Treasury yields influence mortgages, business financing, and the government’s borrowing costs.
According to Kaplan, rising long-term government bond yields in several countries stem from a structural imbalance between supply and demand rather than Fed policy alone. Governments continue to issue large amounts of debt to cover persistent fiscal deficits, requiring investors to absorb a growing supply of bonds.
The U.S. federal budget deficit reached a record $432 billion in July, as per reports, taking the fiscal-year total through July to $1.799 trillion. Calendar-related benefit payments raised the monthly figure, but the adjusted deficit still stood at $333 billion, up 18% from a year earlier.
Heavy Treasury issuance can push yields higher when investors demand more compensation to hold long-dated debt. Rising yields also increase the return available from government securities, which may reduce demand for Bitcoin and other assets that do not pay fixed interest.
Long borrowing costs can remain elevated even when the Fed holds its policy rate steady, supporting Kaplan’s distinction between monetary policy and the bond market’s fiscal concerns. A $25 billion sale of 30-year Treasury bonds on Aug. 13 produced a yield of 5.22%, the highest borrowing cost for that maturity since 2001.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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