Crypto World
Bitcoin’s $116M Self-Custody Push Signals a Shift in Crypto Custody
Security incidents and corporate balance-sheet decisions are reshaping how mainstream investors think about Bitcoin, even as regulated products pull in fresh capital. A reported $116 million hardware wallet exploit has reignited the debate over self-custody, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs notched their strongest weekly inflows since April—suggesting demand is returning alongside renewed concern about holding funds directly.
Meanwhile, major industry players are making moves on the edges of the Bitcoin ecosystem: Strategy is signaling a return to accumulation after a period of small sales, Riot Platforms is reportedly lining up long-term power for a large AI compute deal, and Trump Media is revisiting how it manages a crypto-linked treasury after a steep quarterly loss.
Key takeaways
- A Coldcard-related hardware wallet vulnerability tied to roughly $116 million drained in Bitcoin has pushed attention back toward self-custody risks.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1 billion in net inflows for the week, marking their strongest performance since April.
- Strategy CEO Phong Le says the company intends to resume Bitcoin accumulation later this year after scrutinized, smaller sales this year.
- Riot Platforms is reportedly securing a 20-year, 191 MW power arrangement tied to a major “frontier AI” customer identified by Bloomberg as Anthropic.
- Trump Media disclosed large unrealized losses tied to its crypto and securities holdings and said it will revamp its digital asset treasury strategy.
Strategy signals renewed Bitcoin accumulation
Strategy CEO Phong Le told FOX Business that the company plans to resume Bitcoin accumulation later this year, aiming to reassert its long-term treasury approach after a stretch of relatively small sales drew public scrutiny. Le said Strategy has “bought” roughly 175,000 BTC and sold about 7,000 BTC this year—roughly 25 times more buying than selling.
Even with that imbalance, the company’s willingness to sell periodically has remained a point of focus. Le said Strategy now holds more than 840,000 BTC and remains the largest institutional Bitcoin holder, but has sold Bitcoin on four occasions since May. The most recent sale referenced in the report was the unloading of 1,690 BTC to fund preferred dividends, buybacks, and its dollar reserve.
Analysts note that the issue is not just whether a company sells, but what those sales mean for capital efficiency. According to Novaque Research, when corporate treasuries trade below Bitcoin net asset value, raising additional capital can be increasingly dilutive—making the financing cycle harder to sustain. In that context, Strategy’s stated intent to accumulate again may be interpreted as an attempt to reduce the long-term friction created by repeated sales for shareholder and reserve needs.
ETF inflows strengthen as self-custody concerns resurface
While Bitcoin’s spot price has remained subdued, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1 billion in net inflows for the week, according to Cointelegraph’s reporting referenced to data on weekly ETF flows. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described the period as the third-best week since October, using the term “silent IPO” to explain how early supply dynamics can keep price action muted even as institutional demand grows.
The renewed inflow momentum has also come as attention returns to a major self-custody failure: a Coldcard hardware wallet exploit linked to faulty key generation that reportedly drained about $116 million in Bitcoin. Balchunas said the incident could ultimately enhance the appeal of ETFs for investors concerned about self-custody risks, pointing to the post-hack rebound as a possible—though not proven—connection.
In his comments, Balchunas also cautioned that correlation does not imply causation. Still, his broader point was that if security scares continue to surface, some investors may decide that regulated products better match their risk tolerance—particularly those who want exposure without managing key storage themselves. What remains uncertain is whether inflows will persist beyond a short-term narrative effect, or whether the ETF market will return to a more typical pattern as memories fade and wallets fix vulnerabilities.
Riot’s reported 191 MW AI power deal highlights capacity constraints
Bitcoin miners are increasingly positioning their infrastructure for demand outside traditional hash-rate competition. Riot Platforms is reportedly negotiating a major compute-adjacent arrangement: a 20-year contract for 191 megawatts of capacity from Riot’s Texas campus. The report identifies the customer as “a leading frontier AI” company, with Bloomberg naming Anthropic.
According to the coverage, Riot said the agreement was tied to a long-term supply of power from its Rockdale campus. The timing matters because data center expansion has faced persistent constraints, and power availability is often the limiting factor for large-scale AI deployments. In that sense, miners with energy access can present themselves not only as Bitcoin producers, but also as suppliers of the physical capacity AI builders require.
The broader trend is visible across the sector. The report lists several Bitcoin miners that have expanded or announced AI-adjacent efforts, including Bitdeer, CleanSpark, MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and IREN. Riot’s stock performance also reflected investor appetite for this shift: shares fell 5.4% Monday before rising 21% overnight and were up roughly 50% year-to-date at the time of the report.
Trump Media revises crypto treasury approach after large quarterly loss
Corporate exposure to crypto remains a sensitive balancing act, and Trump Media’s latest disclosures underline how quickly valuation changes can hit financial results—even without selling. The company said it will revamp its digital asset treasury strategy after unrealized losses contributed to a $238 million second-quarter net loss, emphasizing the risks of holding digital assets and related securities on a balance sheet.
Trump Media reported $190.4 million in unrealized losses across its digital assets during the quarter and pledged digital assets and equity securities in the period. It also disclosed that it held 9,477.16 Bitcoin as of June 30, down from 9,542.16 in the prior quarter. In July, the company sold $159.6 million in Bitcoin-related securities and used proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, increasing its holdings to about 14,139 BTC worth $890.5 million by July 31.
Beyond the mark-to-market impact, the company warned that generating additional income from its Bitcoin holdings could introduce counterparty risk. It noted the possibility that a counterparty could default or become insolvent, potentially limiting recovery of Bitcoin committed under unsecured arrangements. The company also indicated that it plans to redirect more resources toward Truth Social, Truth+ and other media operations as part of broader capital allocation changes.
Going forward, investors should watch whether Strategy’s renewed accumulation language translates into measurable buy activity, whether ETF inflows remain resilient beyond the immediate post-hack period, and how corporate treasuries adjust their risk controls as more security incidents and valuation swings test the durability of different Bitcoin exposure models.
JPMorgan’s latest US securities disclosure shows a notable build-up in its reported positions tied to major US crypto exchange-traded funds. In a Form 13F filing covering holdings as of June 30, the bank reported that its exposure to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF rose by roughly a quarter during the second quarter, while its reported holdings in an Ether ETF more than quadrupled.
The filing, submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday, aggregates positions across JPMorgan entities and also lists 17 other investment managers covered by the same disclosure. That structure makes it hard for outside observers to separate long-term investment convictions from other uses of ETF holdings such as client-related activity or internal inventory management.
Key takeaways
- JPMorgan reported an increase in its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF exposure, rising from about 8.3 million shares in Q1 to about 10.4 million shares in Q2.
- Its reported position in BlackRock’s Ether ETF (iShares Ethereum Trust) climbed from roughly 267,000 shares to about 1.17 million shares—more than a fourfold jump.
- Smaller reported holdings in XRP-related products reappeared after JPMorgan showed no XRP positions in the prior quarter.
- Analysts caution that 13F data may reflect multiple operational drivers and cannot show short positions, so it does not necessarily equal JPMorgan’s net market view.
Bitcoin ETF holdings rise in JPMorgan’s disclosure
According to the Form 13F, JPMorgan reported about 10.4 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) in Q2. In Q1, the same disclosure listed about 8.3 million shares. The filing corresponded to a reported value of roughly $356 million in Q2.
While the increase is significant in percentage terms, a 13F filing is not designed to communicate directional trading strategies. As PrimeXBT senior market analyst Jonatan Randin explained to Cointelegraph, these reports can combine holdings from different parts of an institution, including positions linked to client flows and other internal uses. That limits how confidently readers can interpret the update as a clear bet on future price movement.
Randin also noted a structural limitation of 13Fs: they exclude short positions. As a result, the reported long holdings do not reveal net exposure after offsets, meaning the filing is best viewed as a snapshot of disclosed long positions rather than a full picture of risk.
Ether ETF position expands more dramatically
JPMorgan’s Ether-related exposure rose even faster. In the same filing, its holdings in the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) increased to about 1.17 million shares in Q2 from roughly 267,000 shares in Q1. This represents more than a fourfold increase.
The reported change suggests that, at least in terms of disclosed holdings, JPMorgan’s balance-sheet linkage to Ether-linked investment products expanded more quickly than its Bitcoin-related exposure during the same quarter.
As with the Bitcoin ETF position, the interpretation remains constrained by the nature of Form 13F reporting. Investors should view the figures as evidence of increased disclosed holdings rather than direct proof of a strategic shift toward a particular crypto asset’s price direction—especially because 13F submissions do not convey the full context of derivatives, hedges, or other trading that might be used to manage risk.
XRP-linked holdings appear after a blank prior quarter
Beyond Bitcoin and Ether, Randin pointed to small but notable positions tied to XRP investment products. In Q2, JPMorgan reported 181 shares of Grayscale’s XRP product valued at about $3,763 and 113 shares of Bitwise’s XRP ETF valued at about $1,356.
In Q1, JPMorgan showed no reported positions in either of those XRP-related vehicles. Randin connected the timing to the broader regulatory environment for XRP and to the emergence of spot XRP investment products in the United States.
“From my point of view this adds credibility to the regulatory improvements surrounding XRP,” Randin said, highlighting how the appearance of XRP-linked fund holdings can be interpreted as a sign of improving market accessibility. Still, the quantities reported are relatively small, so readers should avoid assuming the position signals a major reallocation toward XRP without additional supporting data.
Why 13F snapshots matter—and what they can’t tell
JPMorgan’s filing illustrates both the usefulness and the limitations of 13F disclosures for crypto-focused investors. On one hand, the report provides a recurring, regulator-filed window into how large institutions allocate capital or align exposure with crypto-linked exchange-traded products. On the other hand, it does not capture the full trading picture.
In particular, Randin’s explanation underscores three key points investors typically need to keep in mind when reading 13Fs:
- Multiple internal sources: An institution’s holdings can reflect a mix of business units, including client activity and inventory management.
- No netting of shorts: 13F reports do not show short positions, so the disclosure is not a complete net exposure measure.
- Quarterly timing: Changes reflect holdings as of a specific reporting date, not necessarily when a purchase or sale occurred.
This means the reported increases in Bitcoin and Ether ETF shares should be interpreted as movement in disclosed long holdings rather than a definitive statement about future market direction.
Reductions in miner positions also signal shifting proxies
Randin also highlighted that JPMorgan trimmed positions in several Bitcoin miners. He argued that miner equities can be a less reliable proxy for Bitcoin exposure as some miners expand into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, potentially diversifying away from straightforward Bitcoin linkage.
“If that was the reason for holding them, trimming that part of the portfolio makes a lot of sense regardless of your view of the future direction of price,” Randin said.
For crypto investors, this is a useful reminder that institutional disclosures may reflect not only bullish or bearish expectations, but also a re-evaluation of what different crypto-adjacent asset categories are actually expressing—whether that’s direct token exposure through ETFs or more complex business exposure through mining-related equity.
Going forward, traders and long-term investors may want to watch whether JPMorgan’s ETF-related positions continue to trend upward or stabilize in subsequent filings, and whether additional disclosures show further expansion—or rebalancing—across Bitcoin, Ether, and smaller altcoin-linked products as regulatory conditions evolve.
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel holds a U.S. flag at a naturalization ceremony hosted by the Iowa Cubs in Des Moines on June 25, 2026.
Iowa Cubs/Michael Hill
Berkshire Hathaway sharply increased its stake in Alphabet in the second quarter, vaulting the Google parent into its three biggest stock holdings. The conglomerate also added to bets on Delta Air Lines and homebuilders.
Berkshire, now operating under CEO Greg Abel, owned about 106 million Alphabet shares worth $37.9 billion at the end of June, according to a regulatory filing released Friday. The share count jumped 83% during the quarter, making Alphabet Berkshire’s third-largest U.S.-listed equity holding by market value, behind only Apple and American Express.
The increase largely reflects a $10 billion private stock purchase announced in early June as Alphabet sought fresh capital to finance its massive AI infrastructure buildout.
Warren Buffett, now chairman at Berkshire, told CNBC he had been behind the Alphabet bullishness with Abel’s support.
Berkshire also continued to build a sizable wager on the airline industry. Its Delta Air Lines position climbed 44% during the quarter to 57.3 million shares, valued at about $5.4 billion at the end of June. Berkshire had only recently returned to Delta after famously selling its airline holdings during the early days of the pandemic.
Housing was another area where Berkshire increased its exposure. The company boosted its Class A stake in Lennar by nearly 30% to 13.1 million shares, worth about $1.19 billion, while its Class B holdings rose 25% to roughly 298,000 shares. Berkshire also disclosed a tiny new position in D.R. Horton, holding 3,600 shares at the end of June.
Berkshire broke a long-running streak of stock sales, emerging as a net buyer of equities in the second quarter with nearly $20 billion in net purchases. Berkshire had been a net seller for 14 straight quarters before the latest period.
The conglomerate’s cash level fell to $365.5 billion at the end of June from a record $397.4 billion three months earlier, as the conglomerate began putting more of its capital to work through investments and share repurchases. The quarter also included the completion of Berkshire’s acquisition of Taylor Morrison.
Solana is preparing to change how it charges for computing resources on the network.
Solana Improvement Document (SIMD-0553) would make its most resource-intensive users pay more while cutting the costs for simpler transactions. As a bonus, it would increase SOL’s burn rate in stages — and one day could even help make it deflationary.
Cavey, a researcher at Solana infrastructure firm Temporal and author of the proposal, tells Magazine that fees currently don’t reflect the real costs:
“If I submit a transaction that does nothing versus a transaction that burns 200 million CPU cycles, I’m charged the same amount.”
This proposal would change that by tying fees more closely to the resources each transaction requests. Rather than going to validators, the resource fee would be burned, removing SOL from circulation.
Of course, reducing validator income has not been welcomed by all. Contributor bji argues on github:
“I like the aspect of this proposal that gives tx submitters extra incentive to be accurate with CU limits. Everything else I’m meh to negative on. ‘More burn’ should not be a goal. Validator incomes should not be arbitrarily reduced.”
SIMD-0553 entered Solana’s new onchain governance process in early August and cleared its initial support phase on August 4.
It is currently in the support and discussion phase, which typically lasts seven epochs, or roughly two weeks. If it’s approved, it would change the incentives around Solana’s cheap blockspace.
So what’s the catch?
Wasting resources becomes expensive
Cavey says that Solana’s current fee structure creates a problem for developers.
Core Solana devs have spent years making the network faster, but applications have almost no financial incentive to stop wasting resources — an inefficient transaction costs the same as an efficient one.
Related: Ethereum, Solana led crypto hack losses in H1 2026: Blockaid
“By installing this resource pricing right now, suddenly app developers have to optimize,” Cavey says.
If the proposal is adopted, developers who reduce resource use could lower costs for end users and make their apps more attractive. Developers who consume more of Solana’s computing capacity would have to pay their fair share.
Solana Improvement Document (SIMD-0553). Source: Solana Foundation GitHub
Cavey says the proposal is particularly aimed at computationally wasteful arbitrage, where searchers can submit huge numbers of transactions that mostly fail, while paying very little.
In the past 30 days, he says, five of the traders with the highest failure rates submitted 11.5 million transactions, consuming 929 million compute units across 2,477 trades that generated $16,091 in profit, while paying just 78 SOL in fees.
A resource fee would push arbitrage searchers toward more informed and reactive strategies.
Stablecoin and token transfers could become roughly 20% cheaper, Cavey says. Temporal’s modeling also finds that vote transactions would cost around 12.3% less and oracle updates 16.9% less under the proposed model.
The trade-off?
Some trading activity would become considerably more expensive.
Temporal estimates that a high-priority swap routed through DFlow would cost 9.72% more under the proposed terminal fee rate, while a mid-priority OKX swap would cost 301% more and a pump.fun swap with zero priority would cost 3150% more.
That means some of the network’s heaviest users could see their transaction costs balloon, particularly traders using bots that submit large numbers of transactions.
Don’t worry though, as the fee increase is off a low base. Cavey argues that even the most compute-intensive transactions would cost around $0.05 under the proposed model, compared with the $2 to $5 fees a user might pay to swap $100 on a centralized exchange.
Who pays more, who pays less. Source: Temporal.xyz
The current proposal rejects a uniform increase to Solana’s existing 5,000-lamport fee, arguing that it would disproportionately hurt high-volume senders such as market makers while still failing to properly price resource usage.
Other costs to consider
“There have been a few people that have raised concerns about the parameters, but overall, everyone’s been very supportive,” Cavey says, citing validator income, higher costs for high-frequency users and increased complexity among the core issues.
One contributor, mschneider, asks why fees should be based on the resources a transaction requests rather than what it actually uses. “Units used seems more natural,” he says.
Cavey says there’s a reason the fee is based on the resources a transaction requests, rather than what it actually uses: it lets users know the cost upfront and allows validators to check they can afford it before processing the transaction. But it also means users can pay for resources they don’t end up using, giving developers an incentive to estimate their needs accurately.
Validators could initially see a small reduction in base-fee revenue by around 4%. While Cavey says the parameter can be adjusted to offset that impact if needed, some contributors like bji remain unconvinced and believe validator income should take precedence over the additional burn.
Related: MoneyGram expands crypto cash ramps to Solana
The proposal also raises questions about complexity, with some contributors questioning whether the new fee model could make Solana harder to use. Cavey rejects the concern, saying most users will not have to calculate fees themselves because applications and exchanges generally handle it. Automated traders are already “sophisticated” enough to adapt to changes in Solana’s fee structure, he says.
What about the SOL burn?
SIMD-0553 would increase the amount of SOL burned by transaction fees, reducing more of the token from circulation rather than paying it to validators.
According to the proposal, the current daily burn of around 648 SOL could rise to roughly 7,500 to 9,000 SOL at the proposed terminal fee rate, representing a roughly 12 to 14-fold increase if current resource demand remains unchanged.
SIMD-0553 would increase the amount of SOL burned by transaction fees. Source: Temporal.xyz
Cavey says the higher burn could eventually push SOL into deflationary territory:
“If Solana wins, there’s a chance that Solana could actually become a deflationary currency.”
Burning the resource fee also reduces incentives for validators to include unnecessarily resource-intensive transactions.
Solana currently issues roughly 60,000 SOL a day, so even a 9,000-SOL daily burn would not by itself make the token deflationary (although a separate proposal called SIMD-0550 would curb inflation faster than currently scheduled). Network activity would need to grow substantially before the burn outweighed new issuance. Cavey says that would be “a nice secondary effect” rather than the main objective.
“The primary goal is to align core devs, developers, and app developers to make Solana faster. That is objective number one, and that is enough of a reason for this proposal, in my opinion.”
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Baltimore has taken legal action against prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing both companies of offering illegal sports betting in the city.
Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the Baltimore City Council filed separate lawsuits on August 13 in the Circuit Court. The cases allege violations of Baltimore’s Consumer Protection Ordinance and accuse the companies of misleading consumers about whether their products are legal and properly regulated.
Illegal Sports Betting
The complaints claimed that Kalshi and Polymarket allow Baltimore residents to bet on game winners, point spreads, point totals, player statistics, and other outcomes commonly offered by licensed sportsbooks. The companies describe these products as “event contracts” or prediction-market trades. According to the officials, the label does not change what the products are.
Neither platform, according to the lawsuits, has the licenses required to offer sports betting in Maryland. The city said that this lets them compete with regulated sportsbooks while avoiding the oversight, taxation, responsible-gambling requirements, and consumer protections imposed on licensed operators.
Questions have also been raised about how the companies promote their platforms. Baltimore alleged that Kalshi and Polymarket market their platforms in ways that can create a false or misleading impression that the offerings are legal and properly regulated. The city added that this can make gambling more accessible and expose vulnerable consumers, including young adults and people with gambling addictions, to financial harm.
Baltimore is seeking civil penalties, injunctive relief, restitution for affected consumers, disgorgement of alleged ill-gotten profits, and other relief allowed under law.
Legal Battles on Multiple Fronts
The two companies are already dealing with several other legal and regulatory disputes. For example, Kalshi recently faced a lawsuit from New York State Attorney General Letitia James seeking to shut down its operations in the state. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission then used its emergency authority to require Kalshi to continue operating in New York after the company sought federal help. The agency said the order followed the platform’s request for assistance after the state lawsuit was filed at the end of July.
It also faced a lawsuit from flight-tracking company FlightAware over flight-related prediction markets. FlightAware accused Kalshi of using its data and name without permission to host markets on flight cancellations. But the case was withdrawn just a day later. Its lawyers said the lawsuit was voluntarily dismissed without prejudice against all defendants.
Polymarket has faced separate problems as well. JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to it late last year. Polymarket has since moved to another lender, although its name has not been disclosed.
A separate consumer protection lawsuit has also been filed against it in Washington, D.C. The National Association of Consumer Advocates alleges that the company, CEO Shayne Coplan, and Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber ran “flagrantly deceptive” social media advertising campaigns that promoted Polymarket to American consumers and encouraged betting on a platform that was not technically available in the US.
The complaint also refers to reports of political influencers praising Polymarket’s accuracy without disclosing paid deals. It cites a Wall Street Journal investigation that found viral videos using simulated versions of the platform to suggest creators had won bets.
The post It’s Not Just Baltimore: Kalshi and Polymarket Face More Legal Trouble appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
What to Know About the Growing Concerns Over Conditions on the Long-Deployed USS Abraham Lincoln
In a letter to Hegseth and Cao, Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, noted that the vessel’s crew members have not been to a port in a record-setting 200-plus days and demanded answers to a series of questions about the crew and the state of the ship.
“There have been widespread reports of shortages of basic supplies, water contamination, plumbing issues, deteriorating mental health, deck safety concerns, and disruptions in the mail system,” Blumenthal wrote. “These reports warrant immediate attention, but they also raise a broader question: whether the Navy can sustain the operational tempo now being demanded of its carrier force, particularly as this Administration repeatedly commits U.S. forces to conflicts of its own choosing and increasingly relies on aircraft carriers to sustain those operations.”
He also noted that the long deployment of the Lincoln is not an isolated incident, “suggesting that extended deployments may be becoming a feature rather than an exception of the Navy’s force-generation model.” The USS Gerald R. Ford, used for the U.S.’s military operation in Venezuela, spent 326 days at sea before its return in May, Blumenthal wrote, which he noted was “nearly twice the length of a traditional six-month carrier deployment and the longest modern U.S. carrier deployment since the Vietnam era.”
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JPMorgan’s reported position in BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund increased by about 25% in the second quarter, while its Ether ETF position more than quadrupled, according to its latest securities filing.
The Form 13F filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, submitted Wednesday, covers holdings as of June 30 and includes 17 other investment managers across JPMorgan.
That makes it difficult to determine whether individual positions reflect a directional market view, Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, told Cointelegraph.
“It gives you some idea of what they are doing but not their opinion about the future direction of a specific market,” Randin said.
JPMorgan reports larger Bitcoin, Ether ETF positions
The filing showed about 10.4 million shares in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) in Q2, up from 8.3 million shares in Q1 with a reported value of roughly $356 million.
Its position in the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) rose more sharply, climbing more than fourfold to about 1.17 million shares from roughly 267,000.
Randin said a 13F can combine holdings from different parts of an institution, including positions related to client activity and inventory, making it difficult to determine the purpose behind individual holdings. Form 13F filings also exclude short positions, meaning JPMorgan’s reported long holdings do not show its net exposure.
XRP appears in JPMorgan’s holdings
Beyond Bitcoin and Ether, Randin pointed to small positions reported in XRP investment products.
JPMorgan reported 181 shares of Grayscale’s XRP product worth $3,763 and 113 shares of Bitwise’s XRP ETF worth $1,356 in Q2, after reporting no positions in either product in Q1.
Randin linked the timing to regulatory developments around XRP and the emergence of spot XRP investment products in the US.
“From my point of view this adds credibility to the regulatory improvements surrounding XRP,” he said.
Related: Crypto whales accumulate as bear market nears late stage: CryptoQuant
Additionally, JPMorgan cut positions in several Bitcoin miners, which Randin said have become less straightforward proxies for Bitcoin as some expand into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.
“If that was the reason for holding them, trimming that part of the portfolio makes a lot of sense regardless of your view of the future direction of price,” he said.
Magazine: Sorry everyone, Bitcoin is headed down to $43,500: Michael Terpin
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting an internal review into “mention markets” on prediction platforms, people familiar with the situation told CNBC Friday.
Mention markets are made up of contracts where traders speculate on whether specific words will be used in a speech, a corporate earnings call with analysts and investors or a television broadcast.
One of the people familiar with the matter said the CFTC first alerted platform Kalshi of the review several weeks ago. The platform removed sports-related mention markets around the same time the CFTC — the federal regulator for prediction markets — alerted the company, the person said. NPR first reported an inquiry into mention markets late Thursday.
It’s unclear if the inquiry only applies to sports-related mention markets, or all of them regardless of topic.
Kalshi and the CFTC declined to comment.
Most scrutinized
Mention markets are some of prediction markets’ most scrutinized offerings. Critics view them as easily manipulable by one individual, and some platforms don’t offer them. Mention markets saw about $3.3 million in trading volume on Kalshi last month, according to Dune Analytics, far behind larger markets such as those devoted to cryptocurrencies.
In July, the CFTC said it was investigating a former teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump who allegedly made $90,000 in profits on Kalshi betting on the content of Trump’s speeches.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong last December rattled off a series of random words at the end of an earnings call to demonstrate how easily prediction market wagers can be manipulated. “I just want to add here the words bitcoin, ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call,” he said.
Proponents of mention markets argue words by powerful individuals have the power to move billions of dollars of money across traditional markets, making it useful to have attach predictive power to them.
“The suggestion that Mentions Markets create ‘new’ manipulation incentives is, on close inspection, overstated,” Kalshi head of market operations Arjun Sawai wrote in a letter to the CFTC as part of a public comment period last month. “They merely add a marginal, regulated, transparent, position-limited, surveilled increment to a vastly larger existing incentive structure.”
Platform Polymarket does not have mention markets on its CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange, but offers them overseas.
Meeting next week
The probe into prediction market contracts comes ahead of a meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20. The committee will discuss prediction markets, as well as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, according to a public agenda.
The latest investigation also comes after the CFTC increased scrutiny of prediction market platforms in recent weeks, even as it supports the event contract exchanges in a battle with states over sports-related wagers and gambling. The commission has sued nine states to defend what it sees as its exclusive jurisdiction to regulate event contracts.
Last month, the CFTC invited public comments on vertical integration among regulated entities, warning platforms to avoid sending broadly-worded, self-certified event contracts. The agency also sent letters to the platforms last week, reminding them not to present their odds in a casino-style format.
A Washington state judge on Thursday issued an order blocking several of Kalshi’s markets from operating there, including mention markets, sports, elections and other high volume categories. Kalshi is likely violating state law by operating as an illegal gambling operation, according to the order.
Washington becomes the fourth state blocking Kalshi, joining Michigan, Nevada and Massachusetts. A federal judge in Minnesota last month overturned a potential statewide ban on prediction market platforms.
The Financial Times reported Friday that Polymarket was cut off from financial services by JPMorgan last October over concerns about government regulation. A Polymarket spokesperson told CNBC it’s still maintaining a relationship with the largest U.S. bank.
“We maintain a close, active relationship with JPMorgan across multiple entities, operational integrations, and material handling customer fund flows; the strength of our relationship is highlighted by our CEO speaking at three of their flagship events in the past year alone,” a Polymarket spokesperson said in a statement. “Any suggestion otherwise fundamentally mischaracterizes our relationship.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
Morgan Stanley increased its reported cryptocurrency-related positions in the second quarter, according to its Q2 13F filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The most notable change was a significant step-up in holdings of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, alongside broader adjustments across other crypto-linked equities and exchange-traded funds.
Specifically, Morgan Stanley’s reported exposure to the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) rose to roughly 16.5 million shares from 13.4 million, an increase of about 23%, as reflected in the SEC filing submitted on Thursday. The firm also reported 2.57 million shares of its own Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), which began trading in April.
Key takeaways
- Morgan Stanley boosted its IBIT share count by more than 3 million shares in Q2, even as the reported dollar value declined due to weaker Bitcoin prices during the quarter.
- Its MSBT position was initiated in the period, adding a new channel for the firm’s own spot Bitcoin product exposure.
- Ether exposure expanded as well, with major increases in iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and Grayscale’s Ethereum staking-focused mini fund.
- The filing shows uneven positioning across the broader crypto equity complex, with gains in some miners and Circle (USDC issuer) contrasted by cuts in others.
- Morgan Stanley’s Circle (CRCL) holdings rose sharply, while reported holdings in Coinbase and some mining names declined.
IBIT adds volume, valuation drops with Bitcoin
While Morgan Stanley added approximately 3.04 million shares to its IBIT position, the value of that stake fell by about 18% to $549 million from $667 million. The filing’s figures reflect a common dynamic for large investors: even when share counts rise, reported portfolio value can still decline if the underlying asset—here, Bitcoin—trades lower over the reporting window.
The SEC filing indicates the increase in IBIT shares occurred alongside also adding to several other Bitcoin ETF exposures. Morgan Stanley reported higher allocations to products including Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF and Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF, while its Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) position rose by nearly 38%.
Beyond the headline IBIT change, the broader pattern suggests Morgan Stanley was concentrating more into established spot Bitcoin vehicles rather than trimming exposure at the start of Q2. Investors often watch this kind of behavior for clues on whether institutional demand is strengthening at the ETF level, particularly when the share count rises faster than the reported valuation.
Ether positions expand across spot and staking-linked products
Morgan Stanley’s Q2 filing also showed substantial growth in reported Ether-related ETF holdings. Its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) position increased by about 202% to around 4.6 million shares. Morgan Stanley also raised its Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF (ETH) holding by approximately 26% to about 5.1 million shares.
These increases matter because they signal that Morgan Stanley’s crypto ETF footprint is not limited to Bitcoin. For market participants, large incremental allocations to Ether products can be interpreted as broader institutional participation—especially when the increases span both mainstream spot-style Ether exposure (ETHA) and products linked to staking (Grayscale’s staking-focused mini fund).
In addition, Morgan Stanley initiated new exposure to Solana-related funds. The filing showed additions to Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (GSOL) and Fidelity’s Solana fund (FSOL), with those positions reported at about $4.25 million and $2.26 million, respectively.
Circle and mining/infrastructure names show selective momentum
Beyond ETFs, Morgan Stanley also adjusted its holdings in crypto-adjacent public companies. The firm dramatically increased its reported stake in Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the company behind the USDC stablecoin. According to the Q2 filing, Circle shares rose from roughly 1.46 million to about 8.32 million.
On the mining and infrastructure side, the filing reflected additions to several names, including Cipher Digital (CIFR), Core Scientific (CORZ), Hut 8 (HUT), and Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR). For investors tracking institutional risk appetite, expanding positions across multiple miners and infrastructure providers can indicate confidence in the sector’s operational resilience—or at least a willingness to accumulate exposure while valuations and market conditions fluctuate.
However, the changes were not uniformly positive across every crypto-linked equity. Morgan Stanley reported about 550,000 fewer shares of Coinbase (COIN). It also cut its CleanSpark (CLSK) position by more than 3.1 million shares and fully exited a roughly 8 million-share holding in Bitfarms (BITF).
That mix—adding in some areas while trimming others—suggests a more selective approach rather than a broad increase across the entire crypto equity basket.
What to watch after Morgan Stanley’s Q2 adjustments
Going into the next reporting period, investors will likely focus on whether Morgan Stanley continues to build its ETF share counts—particularly in IBIT and ETHA—or whether the firm’s activity reverts toward valuation-driven changes as crypto prices move. The SEC 13F updates also remain a key way to observe institutional positioning shifts, even though they are inherently lagging compared with day-to-day market flows.
US investment banking giant Morgan Stanley reported larger crypto fund positions in the second quarter, led by an increase of more than 3 million shares in BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Morgan Stanley’s reported holdings in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) increased by 23% to around 16.5 million shares from 13.4 million, according to its Q2 13F filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.
Morgan Stanley also reported 2.57 million shares of its own Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), worth about $43.3 million. The product began trading in April.
The filing showed increases across several direct crypto fund positions in Q2, even as reported holdings declined in Coinbase and some other crypto-linked companies.
Morgan Stanley grows Bitcoin and Ether ETF exposure
Despite adding about 3.04 million IBIT shares, the position’s value fell about 18% to $549 million from $667 million as Bitcoin fell during the quarter.
Morgan Stanley also sharply increased several smaller Bitcoin ETF positions, including the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), while its Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) holding rose nearly 38%.
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart year-to-date. Source: CoinGecko
Ether holdings grew as well, with Morgan Stanley increasing its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) position by about 202% to 4.6 million shares and its Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF (ETH) position by about 26% to 5.1 million shares.
Related: Italy’s biggest bank triples staked Ether ETF holdings while cutting IBIT shares
In addition to initiating its MSBT position, Morgan Stanley added new exposure to the Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (GSOL) and Fidelity Solana Fund (FSOL), worth about $4.25 million and $2.26 million, respectively.
Circle and Bitcoin miners gain ground
Morgan Stanley made an even larger move in Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the company behind the USDC stablecoin, with reported holdings increasing from about 1.46 million shares to 8.32 million shares.
The filing also showed substantial additions to several Bitcoin mining and infrastructure companies, including Cipher Digital (CIFR), Core Scientific (CORZ), Hut 8 (HUT) and Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR).
Not every crypto-linked position grew. Morgan Stanley reported about 550,000 fewer Coinbase (COIN) shares, cut its CleanSpark (CLSK) position by more than 3.1 million shares and fully exited a roughly 8 million-share Bitfarms (BITF) position.
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