Bitcoin is starting the new week around $63,000, but the market’s technical outlook remains weighed down by history: traders are watching for confirmation of a weekly breakdown after last week’s close slipped below Bitcoin’s long-term 200-week moving average (SMA).

At the same time, macro catalysts are building. Federal Reserve minutes from the July meeting are due this week, and Japan’s second-quarter GDP release underscored risks to global liquidity even as U.S. equities hit fresh highs—an unusual backdrop that some on-chain and sentiment analysts say is leaving Bitcoin sidelined.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin traded in a roughly $57,700 to $67,300 range, and last week’s close fell below the 200-week SMA near $64,216.
• Options pricing suggests close to a 70% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates at the September meeting, following softer inflation signals earlier.
• Japan Q2 GDP came in below expectations, adding to concerns about “global tightening” and potential knock-on effects for risk assets.
• Glassnode highlights a sentiment mismatch: consumer confidence is near decade lows while U.S. stocks reach record territory.
• CryptoQuant points to growing whale-driven exchange inflows, which are reversing some of the prior trend of BTC moving off exchanges.

Weekly close below the 200-week SMA reignites bear-market parallels

After last Sunday’s weekly close, Bitcoin saw a modest rebound, posting local highs near $63,655 on Bitstamp. However, TradingView data suggests the broader week is beginning with price action still trapped inside a narrow consolidation band, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish a decisive move.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen emphasized that BTC/USD has returned below the 200-week SMA. In earlier reporting from Cointelegraph, the 200-week line was described as a defining feature of the 2022 bear market—acting as resistance after Bitcoin capitulated below it in August before entering a long bottoming phase.

“What is interesting is how in both summer 2022/2026, Bitcoin capitulated below the 200W SMA, then bounced, then gave it up in mid-August,” Cowen wrote on X.

https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2089204784209269167

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Traders are also watching specific levels. Rekt Capital said Bitcoin failed to reach his targeted weekly-close level of $63,220, which he argues keeps the door open for additional downside. In his view, a rejection from that zone would confirm a breakdown and potentially push price lower within the existing approximate $58,000 to $66,000 range.

“A rejection from $63,220 would fully confirm the breakdown and send price lower within the current ~$58,000-$66,000 Range,” Rekt Capital wrote on X.

https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2089272172879507805

Fed minutes and odds of a hold: markets shift from hawkishness to pause

This week’s macro focus centers on the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for manufacturing and services, alongside the July Federal Reserve minutes expected on Wednesday.

Recent inflation data has been influential in shaping expectations. Cointelegraph previously noted that last week’s CPI and PPI releases pointed to a softer-than-expected inflation trajectory, prompting traders to reconsider the likelihood of additional rate hikes.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in nearly a 70% probability that the Fed will hold rates at the 3.50%–3.75% range for the September meeting. That compares with roughly 42% odds a month earlier.

Analysis from Mosaic Asset Company—citing CPI coming in at 3.4% year-on-year—argues that moderating inflation helps prevent the policy outlook from turning overly hawkish, even though inflation remains far above the Fed’s 2% target. The report also points to how the Fed’s prior meeting ended with policy dissent, and it notes that the split was the largest since 1970.

Separately, Bloomberg quoted Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack discussing the risk that returning inflation to 2% could take years—raising questions about whether public patience would be sufficient if progress toward the target is slow. The point matters for Bitcoin because extended tight or uncertain policy expectations can quickly change the liquidity backdrop that crypto tends to trade against.

What to watch next: the tone of the July minutes—especially any discussion around dissent—may determine whether near-term rate expectations drift further toward “hold” or reprice back toward “hikes.”

Japan’s GDP miss adds liquidity stress even as U.S. equities rally

Risk-asset traders are also monitoring Japan after Q2 GDP data missed expectations. The release showed quarterly and annual growth of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively—below forecasts of 0.5% and 2.0%.

The data arrives as markets look for the Bank of Japan to potentially begin raising rates from current levels around 1.0% in September, a shift tied to surging bond yields and a weakening yen. Cointelegraph previously reported that Japan and the U.S. conducted a rare joint intervention in yen markets after JPY/USD hit multi-decade lows.

Beyond growth, the GDP print included a notable weakness: the first decline in private consumption in eight quarters. Oxford Economics’ Japan lead economist Norihiro Yamaguchi told CNBC that the boost to consumption from policy measures is already fading and that inflation pressures could increase in the second half as costs filter through—potentially deteriorating purchasing power.

For Bitcoin, the indirect channel is financial conditions. CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. warned that while the situation is not yet a clear “sell risk assets” signal, the market is approaching a critical threshold. In a post on X, he highlighted a combination of conditions that could tighten global financial conditions: Japan’s government bond yields rising further (notably above 3%), additional BOJ rate hikes, a stronger yen, and rising U.S. Treasury yields. He added that if these factors align, normalization of Japan’s rates could end up pressuring both stocks and Bitcoin.

What to watch next: whether Japan’s yield and yen dynamics stay contained or accelerate—because traders often treat FX and sovereign yields as leading indicators of cross-asset liquidity.

Sentiment and ETF flows: Bitcoin risks being left out of the “capital rotation”

While macro uncertainty builds, some analysts argue the bigger issue may be positioning. Glassnode, in its “The Week Onchain” newsletter, described a divergence between Bitcoin and equities: U.S. consumer confidence remains among the weakest readings of the past decade, even as the stock market has reached an all-time high and stays near those levels.

Glassnode said the contradiction looks less puzzling once the driver is identified: households anticipating higher living costs and a softer economy may be reallocating away from cash and into assets, with equities absorbing much of that flow. The firm also pointed out that the S&P 500 reached all-time highs and that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is expected to decline further in August.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is not participating in that same rotation. A key sign would be whether institutional inflows return to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in a sustained way.

Cointelegraph’s article cites that last week spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $267.2 million, based on data from Farside Investors. It also notes that only one out of five trading days ended with net inflows, totaling just $7.8 million.

What to watch next: whether outflows extend or reverse. Sustained inflows would directly challenge the idea that Bitcoin is being ignored by the same sentiment-driven capital that is supporting equities.

Exchange reserve shifts: whale inflows boost liquidity available to trade

On-chain supply dynamics are adding another layer of pressure. CryptoQuant analysis argues that whale activity is increasing exchange inflows and contributing to a reversal in BTC leaving exchanges—an important nuance because exchange balances can affect how much BTC is available for trading or hedging.

The report highlights that Binance’s whale ratio reached 0.71 on Aug. 10, the highest since early March. CryptoQuant also said Binance’s BTC reserves totaled 674,332 BTC on Sunday, up 2.57% month-to-date and at their highest level since November 2025.

“Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of BTC available for trading or hedging,” CryptoQuant commented.

The broader context matters: Cointelegraph previously reported that exchange activity had been skewed toward derivatives as Bitcoin has traded in a tight range since early June. In that earlier coverage, Binance futures volume was noted as significantly larger than spot volume in early August, reinforcing the idea that the market’s “tight range” behavior may be fueled as much by leverage and hedging as by spot demand.

For traders and long-term investors, the next signals are likely to come from three directions: the Fed minutes’ implications for policy expectations, whether Japan’s rates and yen continue to tighten financial conditions, and whether ETF flows and exchange-reserve trends move in a way that either reconnects Bitcoin to broader risk appetite—or further isolates it.

Key takeaways

• Pi Network edges higher on Monday as buyers defend the $0.0839 support level following two consecutive daily declines.
• The Pi Core Team released Node version 0.6.2 after successfully testing distributed computing capabilities across the network.
• A break below $0.0786 could invalidate the recent channel breakout, while a recovery above $0.1000 could strengthen the bullish outlook.

Pi Network (PI) edges higher on Monday as buyers attempt to defend the key $0.0839 support level following two consecutive days of losses.

The mild recovery comes after the Pi Core Team released a new Node upgrade focused on advancing the network’s distributed computing capabilities. However, PI’s technical outlook remains mixed, with weak derivatives activity and indecisive momentum limiting confidence in a sustained rebound.

Weak market sentiment weighs on Pi Network

Pi Network remains a highly speculative cryptocurrency whose price is heavily influenced by broader market conditions, retail demand and the strength of its community.

CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 38 on Monday, reflecting cautious sentiment and reduced risk appetite among investors.

Renewed geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Lebanon, the United States and Iran have contributed to uncertainty across risk assets. This defensive environment could make it more difficult for speculative tokens such as PI to attract fresh capital.

The Pi Network community continues to anticipate further ecosystem development around its reported base of 18 million Know Your Customer-verified users.

The Pi Core Team released version 0.6.2 of its Node software on Saturday. The upgrade follows a successful test of distributed computing capabilities across Pi Nodes and could provide a foundation for additional network utilities.

Expanding the role of individual Nodes beyond transaction validation could strengthen the network’s functionality and provide new use cases for participants. However, the upgrade’s long-term impact will depend on whether developers introduce applications that generate sustainable user demand.

Social activity showed a modest increase following the announcement. Santiment data indicates that Pi Network’s Social Dominance rose to 0.01% on Sunday from 0.009% on Saturday. Social Volume also increased to 12 from 8 over the same period.

The figures suggest that the Node upgrade generated slightly more discussion, although overall social engagement remains limited.

Pi Network’s derivatives market continues to show reduced trader participation. According to CoinAnk, PI futures Open Interest declined to $8.81 million from $9.12 million on Friday.

Open Interest measures the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts. A decline generally indicates that traders are closing leveraged positions or reducing their exposure.

The continued reduction in PI futures Open Interest suggests that speculative interest is weakening despite the latest technical upgrade and Monday’s mild price recovery.

Pi Network struggles to extend falling-channel breakout

Pi Network maintains a bearish short-term bias as its price consolidates below $0.0900.

PI previously broke above a falling-channel pattern on the daily chart, creating the possibility of a bullish reversal. However, the token has failed to produce meaningful upside follow-through, reflecting weak buying demand.

At the time of writing, buyers are defending the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0839. The retracement is measured from the recent decline between $0.1341 and $0.0703.

A sustained break below $0.0839 could expose the former channel resistance trendline near $0.0786. A decisive daily close below this level would weaken the bullish breakout structure and raise the risk of deeper losses.

Pi Network’s daily momentum indicators provide little evidence of a strong recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains only marginally above its signal line and is at risk of forming a bearish crossover. Such a move would indicate that downside momentum is beginning to strengthen.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 45, below its neutral midpoint of 50. This reading reflects modest bearish pressure but remains consistent with range-bound trading rather than an oversold market.

On the upside, the psychological threshold at $0.1000 represents the first major resistance level.

This area is reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1022, creating a meaningful supply zone where sellers could limit any recovery.

A decisive breakout above $0.1022 would strengthen PI’s recovery prospects and could open the way toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1190.

Until PI generates stronger buying demand and derivatives participation begins to recover, its near-term outlook is likely to remain cautious.

Sterling enters this week on a mixed footing. Last month’s Bank of England decision struck a notably hawkish tone, with the vote split 6-3 in favor of holding rates, three members pushed for a hike, a signal the Bank remains genuinely worried about inflation as Middle East-driven energy costs work through the economy. Yet political uncertainty continues to simmer following Keir Starmer’s unexpected June resignation, leaving fiscal credibility, and by extension sterling, more sensitive than usual to how Labour manages the transition.

The kiwi, meanwhile, is being propped up almost entirely by rate expectations. Markets currently price an 88% probability of an RBNZ hike in September, even after New Zealand’s unemployment rate climbed to a decade-high 5.6%. UBS argues the labor data isn’t as bearish as it looks, since the rise was driven mainly by more people entering the workforce rather than layoffs, keeping the central bank’s tightening path intact. Softer inflation expectations and a weaker July manufacturing PMI, however, have started to inject some doubt into just how far the RBNZ can realistically go.

The result: a pound navigating political noise against a kiwi riding hawkish rate bets that may be more fragile than markets currently assume.

Technical Analysis of GBP/NZD

As GBP/NZD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since early June, with a descending trendline from July’s highs near 2.3550 converging with an ascending trendline off June’s lows, both meeting right around current price near 2.2900-2.2980, where the 100-period EMA also sits. This confluence, together with the well-established 2.2900-2.3100 support and resistance zone, marks a decisive juncture for the pair.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and reclaim the 100-period EMA, the path would open toward the 2.3100 resistance, the upper boundary of the recent range. A confirmed break above this zone, and the descending trendline itself, would signal a genuine shift in momentum, opening the door toward a retest of the July highs near 2.3550.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 2.2900 support would expose the broader downtrend that has dominated since early July, with price risking a slide back toward the 2.2800 area and beyond, as the months-long descending structure reasserts itself.

With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, GBP/NZD looks primed for a decisive move—will sterling’s political noise finally give way to the kiwi’s rate story, or does this range hold just a little longer?

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Tudor Investment has increased its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF stake by 18.9% in the second quarter, ending a year-long run of reductions while cutting most of its reported call-option exposure to the fund.

The Securities and Exchange Commission filing submitted on Aug. 14 showed that the macro hedge fund founded by billionaire Paul Tudor Jones held 688,529 shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, as of June 30, up from 579,083 shares at the end of March.

Tudor added 109,446 shares during the quarter, taking the reported value of the position to about $22.9 million. The purchase reversed the direction of its IBIT holdings after the firm spent much of 2025 reducing a position that had once exceeded 8 million shares.

At the end of 2024, Tudor held more than 8 million IBIT shares worth roughly $427 million. Successive reductions through 2025 left the latest share count more than 90% below that peak, meaning the second-quarter purchase recovered only a small part of the exposure previously sold.

The position is also limited compared with the size of Tudor’s portfolio. The firm manages more than $100 billion in assets, while the $22.9 million IBIT stake represented only a fraction of its reported securities holdings at the end of June.

Tudor Investment increased shares while cutting IBIT calls

Alongside the purchase of direct shares, Tudor substantially reduced the call options it reported against BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund.

Its IBIT call position fell by about 85% during the quarter, dropping to the equivalent of 148,000 underlying shares from 998,000 at the end of March. The firm’s reported put exposure remained roughly unchanged.

The filing establishes Tudor’s positions at June 30 but does not disclose the strike prices or expiry dates for the options. It also does not show whether the reduction resulted from sales, expirations or another change in the firm’s strategy, limiting what can be inferred from the lower call position.

Form 13F itself provides only a quarter-end snapshot of certain U.S.-listed securities held by institutional investment managers. Filers generally have up to 45 days after a quarter ends to submit the report, while short positions and many other forms of exposure are not disclosed.

As previously explained by crypto.news in June, 13F reports can show long positions in listed crypto investment products but not directly held cryptocurrencies, complete hedges, cost bases or trades that were opened and closed within the reporting quarter.

Tudor’s filing therefore confirms that its direct IBIT share count increased between the March 31 and June 30 reporting dates, while providing only a partial view of the hedge fund’s total Bitcoin-related exposure.

Other institutions also added BlackRock Bitcoin ETF shares

Tudor’s purchase was disclosed during a busy round of second-quarter institutional filings involving BlackRock’s Bitcoin product.

Morgan Stanley reported on Aug. 14 that it had increased its IBIT stake by 23% during the second quarter, taking its position to about 16.5 million shares from roughly 13.4 million at the end of March.

The bank added approximately 3.04 million shares, although the reported value of the holding fell from about $667 million to $549 million as Bitcoin prices declined during the quarter. Morgan Stanley also disclosed 2.57 million shares of its own Bitcoin Trust, valued at about $43.3 million, after the fund began trading in April.

UBS likewise reported a larger position in BlackRock’s fund. An Aug. 13 SEC filing showed the Swiss bank held about 2.5 million IBIT shares valued at nearly $90 million at June 30, compared with about 549,000 shares at the end of 2025.

The change represented an increase of roughly 355% in its share count over six months, according to the UBS filing coverage published Aug. 13. Like other 13F reports, however, the filing does not determine whether all of the reported shares represented proprietary investments or assets held for clients.

Not every large holder increased its allocation. Harvard Management Company kept its 3.04 million IBIT shares unchanged during the second quarter, ending two consecutive quarters of reductions.

Harvard previously held 6.81 million shares at the end of September 2025 before cutting the position to 5.35 million in the fourth quarter and then reducing it by another 2.31 million shares during the first quarter of 2026. Its remaining position was valued at about $101.4 million at June 30.

The same second-quarter holdings report showed that Abu Dhabi investment entities Mubadala Investment Company and Abu Dhabi Investment Council also left their IBIT share counts unchanged. Mubadala held 14.72 million shares worth about $490.1 million, while the council reported 8.22 million shares valued at approximately $273.6 million.

Paul Tudor Jones has backed Bitcoin as an inflation hedge

Tudor’s renewed purchase follows several years of public support for Bitcoin from Jones, who first laid out his investment case for the asset in 2020.

Jones initially presented Bitcoin as protection against monetary expansion and inflation, later continuing to discuss it alongside gold and other scarce assets. His position focused in part on Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the potential loss of purchasing power in traditional currencies.

During a June 2025 Bloomberg interview, Jones said Bitcoin, gold and equities could form part of a portfolio designed to protect against inflation, with allocations adjusted to account for Bitcoin’s higher volatility.

At the time, he argued that policymakers dealing with large debt burdens could seek to keep real interest rates below inflation. Jones said assets such as Bitcoin and gold would become important stores of value under those conditions.

Jones had earlier discussed allocating roughly 1% to 2% of a portfolio to Bitcoin but did not provide a new percentage during the 2025 interview.

The hedge fund manager also maintained a positive view of Bitcoin during an earlier period of regulatory pressure in the United States. In May 2023, he said he intended to retain a small allocation to the cryptocurrency while citing its fixed supply as part of its investment case.

Bitcoin ETF inflows returned ahead of Tudor filing

Tudor’s quarter-end position was disclosed after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another period of net inflows in early August.

The funds attracted about $853.5 million over five consecutive trading days from Aug. 3 through Aug. 7, according to SoSoValue data cited in an Aug. 8 report. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for about $694 million of the total.

The five-day inflow streak began with $170.1 million in combined net inflows on Aug. 3, followed by $211.5 million on Aug. 4 and $244.4 million on Aug. 5. The products then received about $128.8 million on Aug. 6 and $98.85 million on Aug. 7.

BlackRock’s fund had already recorded a $209.4 million single-day inflow on July 7 as total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $265.7 million for the session. Fidelity’s FBTC, Bitwise’s BITB, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust also received net inflows that day, while Grayscale’s GBTC posted withdrawals.

BlackRock describes IBIT as a product designed to provide exposure to Bitcoin while reducing the custody and operational requirements involved in holding the cryptocurrency directly. The fund carried a 0.25% sponsor fee and reported a net asset value of $35.58 per share as of Aug. 14.

Bitcoin’s BTC$63,636.81 price has been eerily calm for weeks, locked in a narrow range below $65,000. Options, or derivative contracts offering insurance against wild price swings, should be cheap in a market this quiet. They aren’t.

That may sound counterintuitive, but it really isn’t, and it matters for traders considering options to hedge against, or profit from, a potential volatility boom. Volatility is mean-reverting and often spikes suddenly after a prolonged stretch of dull, range-bound trading.

It comes down to the fact that these options contracts are priced based on what the market expects to happen in the coming days or weeks, not on what has already happened recently.

The present calm is real. Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility, the price volatility seen over the past four weeks, has dropped to an annualized 21.80%, the lowest since October 2025. However, the forward-looking measure, the 30-day implied or expected volatility, represented by Volmex’s BVIV index, currently sits at 36%, about two-thirds higher than realized volatility.