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Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin at $300K in Next Market Cycle

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Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin at $300K in Next Market Cycle

Wall Street research company Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover from its latest downturn, reclaim its 2025 high and set new records in the coming years heading into the peak of its historical cycle.

Bernstein expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 under both its base and bull cases, according to a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph.

The company said Bitcoin gained 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak, a rebound that could signal the end of the current bear cycle.

The analysts’ call comes as institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers play a bigger role in the market, which Bernstein said provided greater downside support during the latest cycle and contributed to a smaller drawdown than the 75% to 90% declines of previous cycles.

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Next cycle could see Bitcoin reach $300,000

Bernstein’s base case puts Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027 before reaching a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. Its bull case puts the biggest crypto at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.

The company maintained its longer-term BTC target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.

Bernstein’s forecast is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which the company links to the halving, an event that cuts the amount of new Bitcoin awarded to miners roughly every four years. Bernstein divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation.

Source: Bernstein

The company then estimates Bitcoin’s potential price during those cycles by comparing it with the marginal cost of producing Bitcoin, or the estimated cost for the least efficient miners to produce new coins.

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Related: Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin machine hinges on capital markets, not BTC price: Report

“We assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will behave in a similar manner to previous 4-year cycles,” Bernstein analysts said.

Under Bernstein’s base case, that multiple falls from 1.4 times at Bitcoin’s $125,000 peak in 2025 to 1.25 times at a projected $300,000 peak in 2029 and about 1.2 times at $1 million in 2033.

Strategy could ramp up Bitcoin buying

Bernstein also expects a Bitcoin recovery to improve the outlook for Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, equivalent to about 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins.

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The analysts maintained their “Outperform” rating on Strategy but cut its MSTR price target to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and its updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. MSTR closed at $126.83 on Tuesday, up 3.4% on the day, according to Yahoo Finance.

Source: Bernstein

Bernstein said continued Bitcoin strength, combined with a recovery in Strategy’s Stream (STRC) preferred stock to around $100, could allow the company to “go kinetic again” with Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. STRC closed at $97.15 on Tuesday, according to Yahoo Finance.

Recent analysis from Regime Intelligence said Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may be less vulnerable to a crypto market crash than to a prolonged loss of capital-market access, a risk that could threaten its ability to fund roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without selling BTC.

Magazine: Bitget CEO isn’t buying the Bitcoin rally — She’s waiting for $50K

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US government moves Bitcoin seized from Alameda

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Bitcoin policy group joins U.S. State Department freedom tech push

The U.S. government has transferred a small amount of Bitcoin seized from Alameda Research’s Binance.US accounts three years ago, renewing attention on how federal agencies will handle the remaining assets.

Summary

  • The transferred Bitcoin came from Alameda-linked accounts seized from Binance.US three years ago.
  • Arkham reported the transaction but did not identify it as a sale.
  • Earlier Alameda-linked transfers sent nearly $2.9 million in seized crypto through government-controlled wallets.
  • Federal rules generally restrict sales of Bitcoin placed in the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Arkham Intelligence reported the transaction on Aug. 26, describing the amount as small and tracing the Bitcoin to Alameda accounts on Binance.US that U.S. authorities seized three years earlier.

The blockchain analytics firm did not publish the amount in its indexed post or identify the receiving address. Arkham also did not say that officials had sold the Bitcoin, leaving the transaction’s purpose unconfirmed.

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“The US Government just moved a small amount of Bitcoin that had been seized from Alameda accounts on Binance US, 3 years ago,” Arkham said.

Arkham then asked whether the government would begin liquidating the remaining Bitcoin connected to Alameda. The question was not tied to an announcement from the Department of Justice, the Treasury Department, or another federal agency.

The Bitcoin transfer does not confirm a sale

Moving Bitcoin between addresses records a change in custody or location on the blockchain, but the transaction alone does not show whether the asset has been sold. A transfer to another government wallet may involve custody, accounting, or security management, while movement to an exchange can make a future sale possible without proving one occurred.

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The destination is especially important because federal agencies have regularly used Coinbase Prime to store and manage seized digital assets. Coinbase’s institutional platform offers both custody and trading services, meaning a deposit there can support several purposes.

In July, U.S. government-linked wallets transferred nearly $297 million in seized Bitcoin and Ether to Coinbase Prime. The transaction included about 3,940 BTC and 30,014 ETH tied to separate enforcement cases, according to earlier transaction coverage.

Bitcoin connected to Ryan Farace, an online drug dealer known as “Xanaxman,” and the closed BTC-e exchange formed part of the July transfer. Ether linked to a separate money laundering case also moved to Coinbase Prime.

No public blockchain record can show whether an exchange deposit resulted in an executed trade unless additional evidence reveals a conversion or movement of the sale proceeds. The same limitation applies to the latest Alameda-linked Bitcoin transaction.

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Alameda assets have moved several times in 2026

Federal wallets have processed other seized assets tied to Alameda and FTX during 2026, providing a record of how authorities have handled smaller token holdings.

In May, Arkham said the government moved about $1.89 million in Render, Uniswap, The Sandbox, Mask Network, and Axie Infinity tokens to Coinbase Prime. The analytics firm traced the tokens to approximately $13 million in Alameda assets seized from Binance accounts more than three years earlier.

Another transaction followed in June, when government-controlled wallets transferred nearly $984,000 in FTX- and Alameda-linked cryptocurrency. At least $768,000 of the total went to Coinbase Prime, as crypto.news reported at the time.

Arkham said the June assets would go to the FTX estate to help repay creditors. The transaction included Chainlink and several smaller tokens, while the remaining amount moved through addresses connected to the same seized asset group.

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Federal wallets had also moved more than $33 million in Alameda-linked cryptocurrency in December 2024. According to an Arkham report, the batch included about $18 million in Ether, $13 million in BUSD, and smaller amounts of Wrapped Bitcoin, Shiba Inu, and Axie Infinity.

Arkham said the 2024 assets moved to a newly created address and noted that no official purpose had been announced. The firm presented creditor distributions, wallet consolidation, and asset management as possible explanations rather than confirmed reasons for the transfers.

U.S. reserve rules limit some Bitcoin sales

President Donald Trump’s March 2025 executive order established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and directed the Treasury Department to fund it with Bitcoin finally forfeited through criminal or civil proceedings.

Under the order, Bitcoin deposited into the reserve cannot be sold and must remain a U.S. reserve asset. A recent Bitcoin reserve explainer estimated that the federal government held approximately 198,000 BTC as of mid-2026, although public trackers produce different totals based on the addresses and legal categories they include.

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The White House order does not place every seized coin under an absolute ban on disposal. It allows agencies to return assets to verified victims, comply with court orders, support law enforcement operations, and meet requirements under federal forfeiture laws.

Legal status, therefore, determines how a particular holding can be handled. Bitcoin that has been finally forfeited and transferred into the reserve receives different treatment from property still involved in a court case, creditor recovery process, or victim compensation plan.

The White House also created a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile for forfeited assets other than Bitcoin. Treasury has more room to manage or sell tokens held in the stockpile, while the order gives Bitcoin placed in the reserve a general no-sale policy.

No federal agency has said whether the Bitcoin moved on Aug. 26 had entered the reserve, remained assigned to the FTX recovery process, or fell under one of the order’s exceptions.

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FTX creditors remain tied to the seized assets

Alameda Research operated as the trading firm associated with FTX before the exchange collapsed in November 2022. Federal prosecutors later said FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried used customer deposits to finance Alameda’s operations, investments and loan repayments.

The Justice Department said Bankman-Fried misappropriated billions of dollars deposited by FTX customers and gave Alameda access to the funds. A federal jury convicted him in November 2023 on seven counts, including wire fraud, securities fraud conspiracy, commodities fraud conspiracy, and money laundering conspiracy.

In March 2024, U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan sentenced Bankman-Fried to 25 years in prison. The Justice Department said the sentence included forfeiture of more than $11 billion, while prosecutors placed FTX customer losses at more than $8 billion.

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Altcoin Volume Dominance Hits Two-Year High as Traders Pour $135B Into the Market

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Altcoins have taken a leading role in the latest crypto market rally, as trading activity and market capitalization surged alongside Bitcoin’s sharp move higher. This comes after an extended period of low volatility and subdued trading volumes.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, investor attention and capital have moved strongly toward altcoins, “potentially signaling a broader resurgence of risk appetite across the market.”

Biggest Dominance Surge in 2 Years

Bitcoin gained nearly 25% over the past week, while altcoins significantly amplified the broader market trend. The total altcoin market capitalization, measured through Total2 and excluding Ethereum, increased by around $135 billion during the same period. Darkfost said that the scale of the move highlights how quickly capital has entered the altcoin segment.

A notable change was also seen in trading activity. On Binance, which represents nearly 40% of altcoin trading volume across exchanges, these tokens accounted for as much as 65% of total volume at their peak. At that point, Bitcoin made up just 21% of volume, while Ethereum accounted for 13.6%.

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Darkfost explained that altcoins had not held this much of Binance’s trading volume in two years. The gap between the assets indicates a clear redistribution of liquidity across the market, as these tokens attracted a larger share of trading activity than Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The shift came after several announcements from Trump on August 19, including his call for the US to purchase large amounts of BTC and for Congress to pass the Clarity Act. Darkfost said the announcements helped push liquidity into altcoins.

Impulse Surges to 93%

The strength is also showing up in market breadth. Altcoin Vector said its ‘Altcoin Impulse’ reading jumped to 93%, which suggested that the rally has spread across a large part of the market. However, it considers breadth above 75% overextended, meaning the move could face exhaustion or a reset.

Analyst Matthew Hyland had previously predicted that alts could deliver returns of 10x to 1000x, comparing the June sell-off to the March 2020 market collapse. Hyland had said that June was essentially an altcoin version of the 2020 crash and pointed to Ethereum, Cardano and other tokens as examples that could see outsized gains if the comparison plays out.

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He had also said many of these tokens could recover within a few months rather than taking years to regain lost ground.

The post Altcoin Volume Dominance Hits Two-Year High as Traders Pour $135B Into the Market appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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SEC resurrecting U.S. crypto custody rule the previous administration failed to land

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U.S. SEC says software allowing crypto wallet transactions not considered broker


In 2023, the regulator tried to narrowly restrict the places investment advisers could park clients’ crypto assets, but the new approach is still shrouded in secrecy.

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Bitcoin ETFs tear through 2026 outflows in 7-day hot streak

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Bitcoin ETFs tear through 2026 outflows in 7-day hot streak

Bitcoin ETFs tear through 2026 outflows in 7-day hot streak

The funds are $390 million short of October 2025’s inflow total after cutting their year-to-date net outflow deficit by more than half.

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Americans Feel Guilty Splurging on Joyful Things

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Americans Feel Guilty Splurging on Joyful Things

When money is tight, 47% of respondents seek lower-cost or free ways to experience joy, while 42% save up before spending. Some make steeper trade-offs: 20% cut back on necessities, and 13% take on debt or use credit.

In the previous three months before the survey, 38% of respondents cut back on dining out, 34% on shopping, 27% on entertainment, 25% on travel, and 21% on their hobbies. People were less willing to sacrifice time with or money spent on loved ones. Just 17% cut back on social time with friends, 11% on spending to help others, and 9% on their pets.

For many Americans, luxury looks less like extravagance and more like breathing room. When asked what counts as luxury today, 56% of respondents said vacations. But that was followed by half of respondents who said having money left after paying bills was a luxury. Around 47% of respondents said being able to save and still enjoy life, and eating out without worrying about the bill were also luxuries.

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Taurus Links Platforms to Swift’s Blockchain Ledger

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Taurus Links Platforms to Swift’s Blockchain Ledger

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

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Rallies as Agentforce ARR Surges Over 240% and Strong AI Growth Drives Record Q2 Results

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CRM Stock Card

TLDR

  • Salesforce CRM rallies after Q2 results show strong AI growth and higher guidance.
  • Agentforce ARR jumps over 240% as Salesforce expands enterprise AI adoption.
  • Salesforce raises FY27 revenue outlook after delivering record quarterly results.
  • Strong margins and cash flow growth support Salesforce’s latest market rally.
  • Data 360 growth accelerates as Salesforce strengthens its AI platform strategy.

Salesforce Inc. (CRM) stock jumped after hours as quarterly results showed stronger demand for artificial intelligence products and services. The company reported record second quarter results with revenue growth, higher margins, and expanding enterprise adoption. Salesforce raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook after strong performance across its platform.


CRM Stock Card

\Salesforce, Inc., CRM

Agentforce Growth Lifts Salesforce Platform Performance

Salesforce expanded its Agentforce business as annual recurring revenue exceeded $1.5 billion during the second quarter. The figure increased more than 240% year over year, reflecting stronger demand for automated business solutions. Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue reached nearly $3.9 billion after rapid expansion.

The company delivered 7 billion Agentic Work Units across Agentforce and Slack since launch. It processed 3.2 billion units during the second quarter, showing increased platform activity. Slack reported stronger growth as Slackbot users increased more than 150% quarter over quarter.

Salesforce recorded higher data usage as Data 360 processed 104 trillion records during the quarter. The figure represented a 355% year over year increase from broader customer adoption. The platform also handled 22 terabytes of unstructured data during the period.

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Salesforce Reports Strong Financial Results and Raised Outlook

Salesforce generated $11.3 billion in second quarter revenue, marking an 11% year over year rise. Subscription and support revenue reached $10.8 billion after including the Informatica contribution. The company also posted stronger profitability with a 20.5% GAAP operating margin.

The company reported diluted earnings per share of $4.29, increasing 119% year over year. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share reached $5.90, rising 103% from the previous year. Operating cash flow increased 71% to $1.3 billion during the quarter.

Salesforce raised its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast to between $46.1 billion and $46.4 billion. The updated guidance represents annual growth of 11% to 12% for the business. The company expects subscription and support revenue growth to remain above 12%.

Salesforce Expands AI Strategy Through New Business Initiatives

Salesforce continues strengthening its enterprise platform through new artificial intelligence capabilities and acquisitions. The company expects Contentful and Fin transactions to close during the third quarter. These additions will support broader platform expansion and customer service improvements.

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The company maintained its fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin target at 34.3%. It also expects free cash flow growth to remain between 4% and 5% year over year. Salesforce continues executing its $25 billion accelerated share repurchase program.

Salesforce remains focused on improving business workflows through data management and automation tools. The latest results highlight continued demand for enterprise technology solutions. The company’s quarterly performance shows stronger momentum across its products and services.

 

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Governments Can See Just 14% of the $457 Billion Crypto Tax

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Crypto Flows by CARF Coverage in 2025. Source: Chainalysis

Crypto users generated at least $457 billion in taxable activity on public blockchains in 2025, Chainalysis estimates. Americans produced $112.6 billion of it, more than any other country.

Tax offices will see almost none of it. The global reporting rules now rolling out capture just 14% of those flows.

Where the $457 Billion in Crypto Taxable Activity Sits

The Chainalysis estimate spans six blockchains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. It counts trading gains, income from mining, staking, and lending, and everyday crypto payments.

Trades locked inside centralized exchange order books never touch a blockchain. The real total is therefore higher.

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Payments were the standout, making up $64.6 billion of the US total, which dwarfs the $30.1 billion in trading gains. That matters because payments are among the flows tax agencies struggle most to track.

North America led all regions with $134.6 billion, just ahead of the European Union’s $125.1 billion.

For smaller economies, the money is hard to ignore. Nigeria’s $4.4 billion in taxable flows equals 12.3% of everything its government collects. Kenya’s $1.1 billion equals 5.6%. Portugal’s $2 billion was double its national deficit.

Numbers like these keep lawmakers circling. Brussels has already faced pushback over a $23 billion revenue forecast. Berlin, meanwhile, is weighing Germany’s crypto tax exemption in its 2027 budget.

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CARF Rules Will Capture Only a Sliver

Governments thought they had an answer. In 2022, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).

It borrows the playbook that cracked open offshore bank accounts, making exchanges report customer transactions across borders. Data sharing starts in 2027.

However, CARF only works where a company stands in the middle. Chainalysis maps just 14% of on-chain taxable activity to events the framework covers. The other 86% moves through decentralized exchanges, peer-to-peer transfers, and self-custody wallets that report to no one.

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Crypto Flows by CARF Coverage in 2025. Source: Chainalysis
Crypto Flows by CARF Coverage in 2025. Source: Chainalysis

The gaps run deeper, where mining rewards, staking yields, and lending income largely escape CARF. The rules are not retroactive, so years of past activity stay dark. Exchanges often cannot see what a coin cost when it was bought elsewhere.

The US shows the scale of the problem. Senators have pointed to studies suggesting a crypto tax gap of at least $50 billion a year.

Meanwhile, the Form 1099-DA rules born in the 2021 infrastructure law are projected to recover $28 billion over a decade. Spread out, that is less than $3 billion a year against a $50 billion annual hole.

Dozens of jurisdictions begin exchanging CARF data in 2027, with more joining by 2029. The framework will finally give tax offices a window into crypto. The harder question is what they do about the 86% still outside it.

The post Governments Can See Just 14% of the $457 Billion Crypto Tax appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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2 Important Binance Updates Concerning ETH and Other Altcoin Traders

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The world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange warned its users that certain operations will be temporarily halted later this week.

Prior to that, it revealed the delisting of three altcoins, which will take effect at the start of September.

What Binance Users Need to Know

The company announced that it will briefly suspend deposits and withdrawals on the Ethereum network on August 27 to support wallet maintenance. The process is expected to take about one hour, after which operations will resume.

As usual, Binance assured that it will handle all technical requirements involved for all affected users and said that trading of tokens on the aforementioned network will not be impacted.

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Upgrades of this type are routine and typically carry no significant complications for clients. The company supported wallet maintenance on the Ethereum blockchain in May this year, and months later it temporarily paused TRX deposits and withdrawals to perform a similar process. There were no reports of issues, and operations were quickly restored.

Besides backing such upgrades, Binance is known for thoroughly reviewing all digital assets listed on its platform and removing those that fail to meet the necessary criteria, including the team’s commitment to the project, network stability against attacks, community engagement, trading volume, liquidity, and other factors.

As a result of its latest analysis, it decided to terminate all services with ICON (ICX), Secret (SCRT), and Storj (STORJ). The delisting is scheduled for September 3, when all spot trading pairs of the aforementioned tokens will be removed.

The announcement came less than a week ago, and since then the involved coins have been charting painful declines. SCRT, for instance, has registered another 25% collapse in the past 24 hours alone.

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SCRT Price
SCRT Price, Source: CoinGecko

Similar Effect in the Past

Price slumps following such news shouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, Binance remains the biggest crypto exchange, and withdrawing support results in shrinking liquidity, diminished availability, and reputational damage.

A similar thing happened at the start of August when the company said goodbye to Across Protocol (ACX), Hashflow (HFT), PIVX (PIVX), Vulcan Forged PYR (PYR), Vanar (VANRY), and Viction (VIC). Back then, PIVX and PYR took the biggest blow, both nosediving by approximately 20% in a single day.

Double-digit declines were observed with Alchemix (ALCX), Ardor (ARDR), NFPrompt Token (NFP), and Marlin (POND) in June, when Binance delisted them as well.

The post 2 Important Binance Updates Concerning ETH and Other Altcoin Traders appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Is the U.S. Seeing a Surge in Foodborne Illnesses?

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Is the U.S. Seeing a Surge in Foodborne Illnesses?

Epidemiologists believe it could be among the largest documented foodborne illness events in U.S. history. 

“We’ve never seen anything like that before,” Hamilton says.

The volume of food affected is higher than average

While the total number of recalls has been about average, USDA-regulated recalls affected more than 37 million pounds of food during the first half of 2026—the highest it has been in a decade.

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At the same time, epidemiologist and former CDC adviser Katelyn Jetelina says that it’s very hard to tell just how bad this summer’s outbreaks have been—and our lack of federal data does not help.

“Our data is just not great in the United States,” she tells TIME. “We’re patching things together to try to figure out what is reality versus concern and public perception, and it’s hard to know where the line is.”

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