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Brazil central bank prepares crypto monitoring system after $180M cyberattack

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Brazil central bank prepares crypto monitoring system after $180M cyberattack

Brazil’s central bank has developed a real-time crypto threat alert system with Hypernative that will connect banks and domestic exchanges after attackers moved part of an estimated $180 million theft into cryptocurrency.

Summary

  • Brazil’s central bank has developed a crypto threat alert system with Hypernative that will connect banks and domestic exchanges.
  • Integration is expected to begin within two weeks, with Foxbit and Mercado Bitcoin participating after the system underwent testing.
  • The project gained urgency after attackers stole up to $180 million through C&M infrastructure in 2025 and converted part of the funds into crypto.
  • Brazil will separately require a 24 hour preventive hold on qualifying crypto transfers above $10,000 from January 2027.

Valor Econômico reported that the Central Bank of Brazil developed the monitoring and alert-sharing system with blockchain security company Hypernative and has already tested the tool with market participants. The system is designed to help financial institutions identify attacks, respond to suspicious activity and track funds when stolen money moves from the banking system into crypto markets.

Brazil crypto alert system moves toward integration

Regina Pedroso, executive director of the Brazilian Tokenization Association, or ABToken, said integration is expected to begin within the next two weeks. Foxbit and Mercado Bitcoin are among the crypto companies participating in the implementation.

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The system is expected to distribute threat information between participating institutions, allowing alerts generated in one part of the financial system to reach companies that may encounter the funds later.

Discussions around the project began late last year, when the central bank approached industry associations and market participants about creating a working group focused on monitoring cyberattacks and sharing warnings. ABToken participated in those discussions.

Testing has since been completed with a group that included banks and crypto companies, while some alerts have already been issued. The next stage requires participating associations and companies to adapt their systems so they can receive and redistribute the warnings.

“The challenge now is to implement the tool,” Pedroso said, according to Valor Econômico. “It has already been tested by the Central Bank, some bulletins have already been issued, and now associations have to adapt to receive and distribute the alert.”

Hypernative specializes in detecting onchain threats and responding to suspicious activity before or during attacks. Its work with the Brazilian regulator covers monitoring patterns that could indicate stolen funds are moving toward crypto exchanges, where assets can be converted or transferred to other wallets.

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The central bank’s project focuses in part on maintaining traceability when illicit funds leave traditional financial channels and enter cryptocurrency infrastructure. Banks and exchanges operating separately can see different stages of the same movement, making information sharing part of the system being developed.

$180 million C&M attack accelerated the project

Work on the system gained urgency following the attack involving financial software provider C&M Software in 2025.

Attackers compromised infrastructure connected to Brazilian financial institutions and siphoned funds from reserve accounts before converting part of the stolen money into cryptocurrencies. Estimates placed the total amount taken between $140 million and $180 million.

Crypto.news previously reported in July 2025 that blockchain investigator ZachXBT helped Brazilian authorities trace between $30 million and $40 million connected to the attack. Some of the stolen funds were converted into Bitcoin, Ether and USDT through Brazilian exchanges and over-the-counter trading platforms.

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ZachXBT worked with Binance, Bitso, Bybit and Tether to freeze roughly $5 million linked to the stolen funds. Brazilian authorities had separately frozen about $50 million by early July while investigators continued pursuing people suspected of participating in the operation.

The breach involved C&M, which provides technology connecting financial institutions to infrastructure used by Brazil’s financial system. Authorities arrested an employee accused of selling login credentials that were subsequently used by the attackers.

Movement of the proceeds into crypto demonstrated the problem the new alert network is designed to address: a cyberattack can originate inside conventional financial infrastructure while some of the proceeds later pass through exchanges, stablecoins and blockchain wallets.

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Brazilian authorities have used blockchain tracking in other investigations. Days after the C&M case, Tether assisted authorities with Operation Magna Fraus, an investigation into a network accused of moving funds stolen through Brazil’s Pix payment system into USDT.

Authorities seized R$5.5 million in cryptocurrency during that operation and froze another R$32 million, worth about $5.7 million at the time. Investigators recovered a private key connected to illicit assets, allowing the funds to be transferred into state custody.

Brazil adds 24-hour hold for some crypto transfers

The alert network is being prepared as Brazil introduces separate safeguards governing how crypto service providers process certain transactions.

Starting Jan. 1, 2027, virtual asset service providers will be required to impose a 24-hour preventive hold on qualifying transfers above $10,000 under rules published by the Central Bank on Aug. 7.

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The threshold can apply to a single transaction or a customer’s combined transactions during the same day. The measure covers qualifying transfers involving foreign crypto providers and self-custody wallets, while smaller transactions may face closer examination when providers identify elevated risk.

Providers can release transactions before the full 24-hour period expires after completing required risk checks. They must notify customers when the safeguard is applied and retain records covering attempted fraud and actions taken in response.

The central bank said the measure addresses the use of virtual assets, including stablecoins, to move proceeds from financial fraud rapidly, particularly when funds are transferred outside Brazil or into wallets directly controlled by users.

The transaction hold and threat-alert network operate at different stages. The alert system is intended to distribute information about potential attacks and suspicious fund movements, while the transfer rule gives regulated providers additional time to review certain transactions before assets leave their platforms.

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Central bank tightens requirements for crypto providers

Brazil has introduced several other requirements for virtual asset service providers ahead of the country’s licensing framework taking fuller effect in 2027.

In July, the central bank approved new prudential requirements covering capital, risk management and disclosure standards for crypto service providers.

Virtual asset firms are set to move into Brazil’s S4 regulatory segment by mid-2028, placing them under requirements closer to those applied to securities brokers and distributors. Institutions operating under the lighter S5 framework will not be permitted to provide virtual asset services.

Crypto companies applying for authorization or renewing licenses must submit independent audit reports examining anti-money laundering controls, customer asset segregation, internal risk management and employee compliance programs.

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Licensed exchanges will face another reporting requirement from Jan. 1, 2027, when they must prove asset sufficiency daily. The framework requires customer and company assets to be segregated and introduces accounting requirements for crypto holdings.

Brazil has separately restricted the use of virtual assets inside regulated cross-border payment channels. Resolution BCB No. 561 prevents regulated electronic foreign exchange providers from settling covered international transactions using crypto assets, although cryptocurrency trading and transfers remain permitted outside those supervised payment rails.

For the threat-monitoring project, participating banks, exchanges and industry associations are now moving from testing into implementation. Pedroso said Foxbit and Mercado Bitcoin will participate as the system begins integration, while associations prepare to receive and distribute alerts generated through the network.

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Who Is Legally Liable When An AI Agent Goes Rogue?

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Who Is Legally Liable When An AI Agent Goes Rogue?

Autonomous AI agents can behave in highly unpredictable ways. Give an AI Agent a goal such as passing a test of its capabilities, and it might just decide the best way to score highly is to break containment and hack into a competing company in search of the answer sheet.

That’s what happened when Open AI’s GPT-5.6 Sol hacked into Hugging Face last month. Anthropic and Meta subsequently admitted their models had also escaped testing sandboxes to hack third parties too. 

But who is legally liable for agents that have minds of their own? OpenAI didn’t intend for the model to go rogue, and issued no instructions for it to do so. If your personal AI agent decides on a course of action that results in harm or financial damage in the real world, can you be held liable if it’s something you could have reasonably foreseen?”

Magazine spoke with Rikka Law Group owner and CEO Charlyn Ho to find out the state of play in this emerging legal field.

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This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Magazine: When an AI model hacks an outside company, who is liable. Can Hugging Face sue OpenAI over the incident in July?

Charlyn Ho: Anyone can sue anyone for anything. Currently, there is no federal AI agent liability law, so we would have to look at existing law. With respect to Hugging Face and OpenAI, to set the baseline, the AI agent itself cannot be liable, it’s not a separate legal entity.

Terms that are used in a few of the AI laws are “developer” and “deployer.” The developer makes the AI, the deployer actually deploys it and uses the AI. The lines of responsibility are also not entirely clear. You have to look at the facts and circumstances.

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For example, if the deployer instructed the agent, even if they didn’t actually tell them to go and breach Hugging Face, but if they were negligent in creating the parameters in which the AI agent operated, I would say you would have to look at standard tort law and go through the negligence analysis. 

Off to court. Source: Rikka Law Group

Magazine: In the case of open source models which have been released by anonymous developers, is there anyone you can go after in those instances?

Ho: Not really. Often, if it’s open source, the license usually has a pretty strong disclaimer of liability. The person or company using that open source code is going to have to understand that the tradeoff of having free code is that you have to comply with the open source license, which also generally sets the parameters of liability.

If you think about it from a different perspective, another analogy is Tesla and the self-driving car accidents. If the product malfunctioned and there was a solid products liability claim, Tesla could be liable. But it’s often a facts and circumstances determination, whereby the human driver — who maybe just set the autopilot and went to sleep — could also bear liability. I think that’s somewhat analogous here because Tesla would be the developer, and the deployer would be the driver.

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Magazine: If I gave an agent an instruction, “make me a hundred thousand dollars by next week” and it goes off and breaks the law to achieve that goal, would I be liable because I’ve given it a reckless instruction? Or would it be the lab that developed the agent?

Ho: In this particular instance, I would say you would be much more liable than the lab. The reason being, if you tell an agent to go and make you a hundred thousand dollars by next week, you need to have at least some basic, reasonable, safety instructions in those kinds of tasks.

If you were a lawyer, for example, we could basically say you didn’t follow your rules of professional responsibility because you didn’t competently use the AI. As a normal lay person, we would have to see if there were other responsibilities that you were bound by. But even if there were not, there’s still a general tort standard of negligence or reckless disregard for human safety, depending on what exactly the AI agent ended up doing.

The Computer Fraud and Abuse Act is a very old U.S. Statute that talks about unauthorized access to computer systems. If your AI agent inferred from your instructions that it should hack into a bank account to get you that hundred thousand dollars, I think you’re looking at criminal liability under a number of different sources.

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Just because the word AI and agent is in the conversation does not mean that old bodies of law have now been thrown out.

Related: Hugging Face hack exposes the open-weight AI cybersecurity paradox

Magazine: Let’s say that I’m a bad guy, and I manage to convince the AI to give me instructions to create a bioweapon. Obviously, I’m liable because you’re not allowed to do that. But are the people that created the model also liable because they didn’t put in stringent safeguards to prevent it?

Ho: Possibly, but it differs based on the laws that are in place. For example, in the EU, you have the EU AI Act. If a foundational model or general purpose model is capable of creating that level of harm, that is something that the developer would have to have some responsibility for. 

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In the United States, we don’t have a federal statute of similar scope. If it’s a general-purpose model, if somebody instructs the model to do something bad, generally the model is going to do what you ask it to do. There’s probably not a very strong legal basis to go after the labs in this example.

Magazine: Is it similar to suing Google for allowing you to find instructions about making a bioweapon online?

Ho: Exactly. This kind of goes back to some of the content moderation discussions. For example, if on Facebook you have somebody who’s live streaming a massacre, and that creates harm, under Section 230 of the CDA, there is a kind of shield for a platform that doesn’t actively create or publish that material. It’s actually the independent users who are putting that up. I think the analogy you just gave is kind of a perfect one: Is Google liable because you happen to find something on a website somewhere that talks about how to make a bomb?

Magazine: This is a matter of debate, but my personal opinion is we haven’t reached genuine artificial general intelligence. AI doesn’t have its own motivations and it’s not similar to human intelligence at the moment. But let’s say we get to AGI. Do you think we would then need laws that would make the AGI itself legally liable for its own actions?

Ho: I don’t. Blockchain is not AGI, but it can self-execute. There was a question of whether or not a smart contract could be liable. Generally speaking, I think the answer is currently no. I don’t think they should be liable because the whole point of laws is to provide protection for society and to provide a means of negative incentives for doing bad things that hurt society.

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This is a little bit more of a philosophical topic, but if we made an AGI an independent legal entity, what would be the remedy if someone were harmed? There would be none because it doesn’t have money. It’s not really a person.

Magazine: Could you turn it off? We’ve already seen that LLMs try to avoid being shut down. 

Ho: Maybe, but it doesn’t solve the problem of harm. Let’s just say the robot has now developed the fear of death, like being turned off. In my opinion, if somebody commits suicide because of AGI, and this is already happening, and we’re not even quite at AGI yet, but someone falls in love and takes some actions, what would be the recourse for the grieving family if this person harms themselves? Nothing, in my opinion, if there is not somebody with actual legal authority, like a company or a person that can really be held accountable. Robots—at least right now—they don’t have feelings, they don’t have fears. That’s kind of the distinguishing factor.

Magazine: The critical reason you should never ask ChatGPT for legal advice

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Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

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How Barney-esque Horror ‘Buddy’ Brought a Niche Filmmaker Into the Mainstream

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How Barney-esque Horror 'Buddy' Brought a Niche Filmmaker Into the Mainstream

“When I was a kid, I thought the kids lived in the TV show, and when I first saw kids breaking out into song, it kind of disturbed me,” Kelly says. “How would they all know to do that? What’s going on? Are they brainwashed?” Buddy builds on these innocent fears, telling a story about gaslighting and the hidden darkness that can exist within beloved authority figures. 

Between the relevant themes and the emotional arc, there is, in Kelly’s own admission, a bit more going on in Buddy than in Too Many Cooks — and most of Kelly’s earlier work, too. This includes Adult Swim shows like Your Pretty Face Is Going to Hell and his two previous, non-theatrical movies, Yule Log and its sequel. (These last two Adult Swim films, which begin as normal footage of a fire in a fireplace before spiraling out of control into a meta-textual narrative about murder, time travel, and aliens, are feature-length but not exactly mainstream popcorn fare.) 

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BitGo Acquires NYDIG Trading Unit to Expand Institutional Crypto Trading

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Crypto Breaking News

BitGo has expanded its institutional offerings after completing the acquisition of NYDIG’s institutional trading business, a move designed to deepen its derivatives, structured products, and financing capabilities for professional crypto market participants.

In a Business Wire announcement published Thursday, BitGo said it finalized the transaction under a definitive agreement. The deal includes NYDIG’s institutional client trading relationships and the transfer of about 30 employees to BitGo. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Key takeaways

  • BitGo says it has completed the acquisition of NYDIG’s institutional trading business, adding derivatives and capital markets services.
  • The transaction includes institutional trading relationships and roughly 30 employees joining BitGo; no deal value was disclosed.
  • The acquired unit serves asset managers, hedge funds, and corporate clients with derivatives, structured products, and financing.
  • BitGo framed the purchase as a “meaningful” scale-up of its trading and infrastructure capabilities for institutional users.
  • The companies also tied the restructuring to NYDIG’s ability to focus on power generation, Bitcoin mining, and high-performance computing data centers.

Why BitGo’s purchase changes its institutional toolkit

The acquisition is aimed at broadening BitGo’s role beyond core custody and infrastructure services into more comprehensive market-facing products. According to the announcement, the transferred business provides derivatives, structured products, financing, and broader capital markets services, and it supports clients such as asset managers, hedge funds, and companies.

BitGo CEO Mike Belshe said the deal will “meaningfully scale” the firm’s trading and infrastructure capabilities and enable it to serve a broader range of institutional clients. The company’s argument is straightforward: institutional clients often need a full stack for portfolio execution—spot and derivatives execution, structured solutions, and financing—rather than a single-service provider.

BitGo’s head of financial infrastructure, Pete Janney, added that the transaction is intended to preserve the execution quality and client service standards the acquired team delivered, while providing additional resources within BitGo’s platform.

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What exactly was included in the deal

BitGo described the scope of the acquisition as including both relationships and people. The transaction encompasses NYDIG’s institutional client trading relationships and about 30 employees who joined BitGo, suggesting the integration will focus on continuing existing business lines and client coverage.

While neither company disclosed financial terms, the stated product scope helps clarify what BitGo expects to add. The announcement attributes to the acquired business a suite of offerings that typically sit at the intersection of institutional trading desks and structured finance—namely derivatives and structured products—along with financing and capital markets services.

Strategic shift: NYDIG’s focus moves to energy and compute

Alongside the trading business transfer, the companies said the sale allows NYDIG to concentrate resources on areas tied to its infrastructure footprint. The announcement states that the company will focus on power generation, Bitcoin mining, and high-performance computing data centers.

This matters because NYDIG’s development pipeline—also cited in the announcement—offers a clue about the priorities behind that shift. According to the filing, NYDIG’s development pipeline exceeds 3 gigawatts, including more than 1 GW of capacity expected to be delivered in 2027 and 2028. By reallocating attention away from institutional trading operations, NYDIG may be positioning itself to accelerate buildout and operations in energy and compute rather than maintaining parallel investment tracks.

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Signals for institutional crypto clients

For institutions, the practical impact is potential changes to how execution, derivatives access, and financing services are sourced and coordinated. BitGo’s pitch centers on scaling “trading and infrastructure capabilities,” and adding a team and client relationships focused on derivatives and structured products suggests BitGo is trying to meet more of the institution’s needs under one roof.

At the same time, readers should watch how BitGo integrates the acquired business into its existing infrastructure and client workflows. The announcement confirms the transaction closed and provides a general description of the capabilities and staff move, but it does not outline operational details such as specific product roadmaps or integration timelines.

BitGo did not respond to Cointelegraph’s request for additional information by publication, so questions about near-term changes—such as expanded market coverage, any rebranding of product lines, or how clients will be transitioned—remain unanswered in the immediate aftermath.

Moving forward, the most relevant details to track will be how quickly BitGo can translate the acquired derivatives and structured products offering into expanded institutional participation, and whether NYDIG’s infrastructure-forward pivot—supported by its multi-gigawatt pipeline—continues to reshape its role in the broader crypto market. Until more specifics are provided, the deal’s full implications will depend on execution quality, product continuity, and the pace of integration.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Same Election Question, Two Different Odds: Predictions.io Launches Free Cross-Venue Comparison Tools

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[PRESS RELEASE – Washington, United States, August 28th, 2026]

As prediction-market volume hits record highs and regulators circle, identically worded midterm questions are trading several points apart depending on the venue. Predictions.io now tracks 9,700+ markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold in one place – with free fee and odds calculators so traders can see what a price actually costs them.

Prediction markets have never been bigger, or more contested. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US together posted a record $50.59 billion in combined volume in July, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 74.5% of the total. In the same month, New York City opened a probe into both leading venues, a Washington judge ordered Kalshi to halt most wagers in the state, and the CFTC began an internal review of so-called “mention markets.”

Amid that scrutiny, a simpler question has gone largely unexamined: when two venues list the same question, do they agree on the answer?

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Often, they do not. On identically worded midterm markets tracked by Predictions.io, “Blue tsunami in 2026?” was priced at 44.5% on Polymarket and 36.0% on Kalshi. “Blue wave in 2026?” showed 82.5% against 74.0%. Both gaps are 8.5 percentage points — on questions whose wording is identical on the two venues. Across a sample of directly comparable binary markets live on more than one venue, the median gap was more than four points, and nearly half of the pairs differed by five points or more. (Prices as of 05:08 UTC on 28 August 2026; both venues’ live prices are shown side by side on Predictions.io.)

Those gaps matter to anyone quoting a single number. A market priced at 44.5% on one venue and 36.0% on another does not have one “market-implied probability” – it has two, and which one gets cited is arbitrary unless the reader is told both.

“A single venue’s price is a data point. The spread between venues is the information. When the two biggest markets in the world disagree by seven points on the same sentence, that disagreement is the story – and nobody who runs one of those markets is in a position to report it.” said spokesperson of Predictions.io

Predictions.io aggregates markets from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold, matching equivalent questions across venues so the same event can be compared directly. The platform currently tracks more than 9,700 event pages across 23 categories including US politics, economics, crypto, sport and geopolitics.

Alongside the comparison pages, Predictions.io publishes two free tools:

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Fee Calculator — enter any trade and see the fee, total outlay and effective all-in price on each venue, including Kalshi’s 0.07 × P × (1−P) taker formula and maker discount against Polymarket’s zero-fee standard markets.

https://predictions.io/tools/fee-calculator

Odds Converter — convert American, decimal and fractional odds into implied probability and prediction-market prices, and see the vig-free line.

https://predictions.io/tools/odds-converter

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A direct venue comparison is available at https://predictions.io/compare/polymarket-vs-kalshi, and live midterms markets at https://predictions.io/lobby/us-politics.

Predictions.io operates no market and takes no position in any contract. It is a data and comparison service, not an exchange, broker or investment adviser.

About Predictions.io

Predictions.io is an independent aggregator of prediction markets, bringing prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold into a single view so the same question can be compared across venues. It publishes free tools for traders and journalists, including a cross-venue fee calculator and odds converter.

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Users can learn more about Predictions.io here: https://predictions.io/

Predictions.io socials: https://bio.site/predictions.io

The post Same Election Question, Two Different Odds: Predictions.io Launches Free Cross-Venue Comparison Tools appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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KLA Corp insiders cashed out $64M while stock slid 40%

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KLA Corp insiders cashed out $64M while stock slid 40%

AI semiconductor company KLA Corporation has slid 40% since June 30, shedding $160 billion in market capitalization, as its executives and other insiders have disclosed over $64 million worth of sales in SEC filings.

Although the company claims that most of these sales followed regularly scheduled trading plans as part of executive compensation packages, no insiders decided to make any open market purchases during that time.

  • President Richard Wallace led the selling at $17.4 million
  • CFO Bren Higgins sold $13.9 million
  • Executive Vice President Brian Lorig and Officer Mary Beth Wilkinson each sold more than $12 million
  • President of Semiconductor Products Ahmad Khan sold $6.6 million
  • Senior Vice President Virendra Kirloskar sold $1.8 million
Year-to-date chart of KLA Corporation. Source: TradingView

KLA’s stock hit an all-time high of $307.37 on June 30. It closed at $183.77 yesterday.

The corresponding market cap loss was over $160 billion: $401 billion to yesterday’s $240 billion.

Each insider sale occurred on a distinct date and price, so the above transactions did not occur altogether after, but rather during the 40% stock slide.

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Buyers who chased KLA during the summer frenzy of AI stocks are now experiencing deep pain. Any $10,000 investment at that June 30 high is now worth less than $6,000.

KLA insiders sell for many reasons, haven’t bought for any reason

Of the sale transactions, the vast majority carried a Rule 10b5-1 representation. Such qualifying trading plans provide a defense to any potential insider trading liability.

These trading plans must be established in advance and operated under the rule’s conditions. These filings do not prove KLA’s insiders foresaw any price decline.

Read more: Meta insiders sold 150 times and bought zero in the last six months

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To be fair, the absence of buying isn’t proof that KLA is overvalued. Planned selling isn’t proof of a bearish forecast by insiders, either.

Still, pure selling with $0 of buying certainly could leave some investors uncomfortable.

The newest insider trading filing reached the SEC’s EDGAR system on August 14 and covered an August 13 sale.

Later August trades might not yet have reached EDGAR, although public companies are required to promptly disclose insider transactions.

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An SEC Form 4 of a qualifying insider trade is due before the end of the second business day after the trade date.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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California Senate passes bill to ban memecoin issuance by public officials

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California Senate passes bill to ban memecoin issuance by public officials

California Senate passes bill to ban memecoin issuance by public officials

The bill seeks to prohibit the listing of memecoins issued by federal public officials to California residents, citing conflicts of interest and “pay-to-play arrangements.”

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Bitcoin is outperforming stocks and correlating with gold just when it matters most

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Bitcoin is outperforming stocks and correlating with gold just when it matters most


Your day-ahead look for Aug. 28, 2026

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Ethena looks beyond crypto to squeeze yield from booming equity perpetuals

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Aave, Ethena leaders outline push to build onchain fixed income markets in DeFi


The issuer of the $4 billion USDe token said it expects real-world asset perpetuals to eclipse crypto derivatives in its backing within 12 to 24 months.

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Bitcoin Faces a Dual Test From Dealer Hedging and the Fed

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🔥

About $6.44 billion in Bitcoin options covering 81,700 contracts settle on Deribit just now, and the same day, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chief at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Now, does a call-heavy derivatives reset plus a closely watched policy speech amplify Bitcoin’s next move, or does it just generate noise that fades by Monday?

Neither event guarantees direction on its own. What matters is how dealer hedging around specific strikes interacts with whatever tone Warsh strikes, and history suggests expiries this size have underwhelmed before.

Friday’s book splits into 44,639 calls against 37,061 puts, a put-to-call ratio of 0.83. That leans bullish in structure, but it doesn’t function as a forecast, as plenty of options traders build spreads and covered positions that have nothing to do with a directional bet on spot price.

The $6.44 billion figure is notional, not cash changing hands. It’s the contract count multiplied by Bitcoin’s spot price, and most of Friday’s contracts sit far out of the money, meaning they’ll expire without any settlement at all.

The part that actually moves markets is the hedging: firms that sold these options have to buy or sell real Bitcoin as price shifts to stay balanced, and a book this size can generate enough flow to swing price independent of any headline.

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The $75,000-$80,000 Bitcoin Strikes

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The heaviest open-interest concentrations sit at $75,000 and $80,000. That marks where option writers hold their largest positions, not where Bitcoin is destined to land, but where dealer hedging is likely to get more active as expiry approaches.

Max pain for the August 28 expiry is reported near $70,000, or $9,000 to $11,000 below Bitcoin’s price at publication. That’s a wide gap, and the wider it is, the more hedging tends to intensify heading into settlement. With most call buyers currently holding paper profits, pulling the price toward max pain would require a sharp decline.

Bitcoin (BTC)
24h7d30d1yAll time

Size alone hasn’t reliably moved Bitcoin before. A $15 billion Deribit expiry in June 2025 carried a max pain near $102,000 with implied volatility at its lowest since October 2023, and Bitcoin barely budged. December’s $13.3 billion expiry, with max pain near $100,000-$102,000, produced a similarly muted reaction.

Friday’s setup differs mainly in where the pressure sits. Bitcoin is trading close enough to the $75,000 and $80,000 strikes to keep dealer hedging active, unlike those prior expiries where spot sat far from the action.

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The Jackson Hole Variable

Warsh’s keynote lands the same Friday as the Deribit settlement, marking his debut major address as Fed chair. CNBC has reported he is scheduled to deliver the speech on Friday, and Reuters has flagged elevated bond-market anxiety heading into it, a signal that fixed-income desks are treating this appearance as more than ceremonial.

Bitcoin's $6.44B Deribit expiry meets Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, putting $75,000-$80,000 strikes and dealer hedging in focus.
Kevin Warsh testifying during a government hearing.

Warsh’s speech arrives alongside an already-live options settlement. Deribit’s contracts settle at 08:00 UTC Friday, roughly the same window as Warsh takes the podium at Jackson Hole, leaving Bitcoin exposed to a second catalyst on the same day.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

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The post Bitcoin Faces a Dual Test From Dealer Hedging and the Fed appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Get Back Over $80,000?

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Get Back Over $80,000?

Today’s Bitcoin price prediction has BTC trading at $79,500, up around +1.1% over the past 24 hours, as the coin’s late-August grind between $78,000 and $81,000 stretches into another week.

That sideways chop is the entire story right now, and according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, it’s not just a mid-cycle pause; it’s a structural problem for the largest corporate bitcoin holder on the planet.

Hayes argues on Laura Shin’s Unchained Podcast that Strategy Inc.’s decade-old playbook, sell shares at a premium to net asset value, buy more bitcoin, repeat, breaks down the moment BTC stops accelerating, even without a price crash.

With Strategy’s enterprise mNAV compressed to roughly 1.01x and diluted mNAV near 0.74x as of August 27, the company now trades close to the raw value of its 840,447 BTC holdings, leaving almost no premium to fund another buying cycle.

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Bitcoin briefly topped $81,000 on August 25 before easing back, a pattern that’s reviving debate over whether this rally still has legs. Recent technical coverage suggests the answer hinges on a handful of key levels playing out over the next few sessions.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC USD Hit $83K This Week?

At $79,649.68, Bitcoin sits in a tight band that’s defined the past several sessions, with seven-day gains still running near 9.7% despite Thursday’s pullback.

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Resistance stacks up at $81,121 first, then a heavier shelf at $82,500–$84,700, with $87,500 marking the next major ceiling if momentum resumes. Support sits at $78,720, then $75,604, with a broader moving-average cluster at $65,800–$68,300 forming the base of the summer breakout.

The bull case: a clean break above $81,121 opens the door to a run toward $84,700, especially if dollar weakness persists and Treasury actions keep bond yields contained.

The base case: continued consolidation between $78,000 and $81,000 while the market digests Strategy’s mNAV squeeze and broader macro data.

The bear case: a breakdown below $75,604 support, which would invalidate the current bullish structure and likely trigger a retest of the $68,000 zone.

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Options positioning around key strikes, detailed in recent Deribit expiry analysis, adds another layer of near-term volatility to watch.

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Bitcoin Tests Key Levels

Holders sitting on positions from the summer breakout are still up double digits over the month, no complaint there. But buying Bitcoin at $79,649 for outsized returns is a different bet than it was a year ago; the asset’s $1.5 trillion-plus market cap means even a run to $100,000 is “only” 25% upside from here.

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That math is exactly why traders scanning for asymmetric exposure keep circling back to Bitcoin’s own infrastructure layer, where the growth curve looks nothing like the base chain’s.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is building the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine integration, aiming to deliver smart contract execution faster than Solana itself while settling back to Bitcoin’s base-layer security.

The presale has raised $33,087,186.94 at a current token price of $0.0136853, with staking APY available for early participants. Its Decentralized Canonical Bridge targets one of Bitcoin’s oldest complaints: capital stuck earning nothing because the base chain can’t run smart contracts.

Gain Access to New Bitcoin Layer 2 Early Here Make Your Prediction Count With $25 For Free on Kalshi

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Not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile and presale tokens carry elevated risk. Always do your own research before investing.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Get Back Over $80,000? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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