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Will BTC Slide Under $80K Next?

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BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit

Bitcoin has pulled back sharply, slipping roughly 10% from midweek into Thursday and testing the $81,000 level for the first time in more than two months. The move comes as traders digest a wave of outflows from spot BTC exchange-traded funds, alongside a broader risk-off tone that coincided with gold’s retreat from its own all-time high. The backdrop is a market increasingly focused on hedging and liquidity, with options markets flashing notable fear metrics just as leveraged bets have been unwound. The price action also underscores a crucial test for the $80,000 support area, which—while still intact—faces renewed scrutiny as investors weigh macro risks and the possibility of renewed volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) experiences a pullback after a period of outsized moves, and the tissue of market signals suggests traders are cooling risk exposure in the near term. The drop comes on the back of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs showing material net outflows, while gold prices have dipped from their Wednesday peak. In this context, the market’s nervous undertone is evident in the options market, where fear is elevated and hedging activity appears more pronounced than at any point in recent months.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The latest data shows US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $2.7 billion in net outflows since January 16, representing roughly 2.3% of total assets under management. This backdrop has raised questions about institutional demand and whether investors are layering into safer havens or stepping back from risk assets altogether. At the same time, gold has declined about 13% from its Wednesday high, reminding traders that multi-asset markets can move in tandem when liquidity tightens and macro narratives shift. The combination of ETF redemptions and precious metal dynamics has contributed to a cautious mood that could extend into the near term, even as some investors point to longer-term value cases for BTC as a potential hedge against inflation and currency risk.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin options delta skew rose to 17% on Friday, its highest level in more than a year, signaling extreme fear and heightened hedging activity as market makers prepare for further downside protection.
  • Net outflows from US-listed spot BTC ETFs totaled about $2.7 billion since Jan 16, equating to roughly 2.3% of assets under management and raising questions about institutional demand.
  • The price correction reached about 10%, with BTC retesting the $81,000 area—the first proximity to that level in over two months—raising the specter of a soft test of the psychological $80k support.
  • Approximately $860 million in leveraged long BTC futures positions were liquidated between Thursday and Friday, while aggregate BTC futures open interest fell to about $46 billion from around $58 billion three months prior, indicating deleveraging across the market.
  • Stablecoin dynamics in cross-border flows suggested moderation rather than a rush for cash, with a 0.2% discount for USDT/CNY versus the US dollar/CNY, contrasting with traditional parity expectations and signaling cautious liquidity conditions.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Bearish

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Price impact: Negative

Market context: The current dynamics sit at the intersection of risk-off trading, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty. As traditional risk assets face persistent headwinds, investors have favored liquidity and short-duration exposures, which often translate into pressure on highly leveraged crypto positions and volatility spikes in liquid markets like BTC.

Why it matters

The surge in BTC options fear, mirrored by a jump in delta skew, points to a market structure that is increasingly sensitive to downside risk. When put options carry a premium relative to calls, market makers hedge with heightened caution, amplifying price swings in times of stress. The 17% delta skew suggests that the market is more willing to pay for downside protection than to bet on further upside, a condition that can feed upon itself if macro catalysts continue to weigh on sentiment. In this environment, traders must monitor not just price levels but the pace and direction of hedging activity, as it can create feedback loops that drive rapid short-term moves.

ETF flows are a useful lens into the institutional appetite for BTC as an asset class. The reported $2.7 billion of net outflows since mid-January, representing 2.3% of AUM, signals institutional demand softness even as retail participants can remain active. Outflows from spot BTC ETFs can compress price durability if buyers do not re-enter in meaningful size, particularly when risk-off sentiment is reinforced by other macro variables. This backdrop also coincides with gold’s multi-month rally being tempered by short-term retracements, underscoring a broader competition for capital across safe-haven assets. In this light, BTC’s price action becomes a barometer for risk sentiment in the crypto space and a gauge of how quickly demand can swing in response to macro cues.

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Beyond the price action, the risk narrative extends into the realm of technology risk like quantum computing. While some market participants remain skeptical about imminent disruption to the cryptographic foundations of blockchains, others warn that long-term security considerations must be taken seriously. Independent research and ongoing dialogue within the industry—highlighted by initiatives such as Coinbase’s advisory board aimed at evaluating quantum threats with public research slated for early 2027—add a layer of forward-looking risk assessment to the conversation. The broader takeaway is that risk considerations—whether macro, technological, or liquidity-driven—are increasingly intertwined in shaping crypto markets.

BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit
BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

Analysts note that a cooling in leverage can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, a deleveraging phase can reduce systemic risk and limit cascading liquidations, potentially stabilizing prices after a sharp correction. On the other hand, if risk appetite does not return, the market could remain range-bound with occasional reversals as participants digest incoming data and reassess risk premium. The combination of a lower open interest and notable liquidations suggests a shift toward a more conservative posture among traders, even as some investors argue that the long-term bull case for BTC remains intact. The ongoing debates around quantum security and the ongoing debate about institutional appetite will likely shape how quickly the market can stage a renewed rally if macro and crypto-specific catalysts align.

BTC futures aggregate open interest
BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The futures market remains a useful lens into risk sentiment. With open interest sliding to $46 billion from a prior $58 billion, and with a substantial portion of long positions liquidated, the market appears to be purging excess leverage. This process can improve resilience over the longer term, but it can also prolong volatility in the near term if demand remains tepid or if new catalysts emerge. The broader ecosystem will watch how quickly liquidity returns, how ETF flows evolve, and whether macro narratives shift back toward risk-on or risk-off dynamics. In this context, BTC’s ability to reclaim momentum will hinge on more than just price—it will require a rebalancing of demand across institutions, traders, and retail participants alike.

As markets calibrate to these dynamics, traders will keep an eye on stablecoin liquidity signals as a proxy for overall risk appetite. The ratio of USDT to yuan and the implied USDT/CNY vs USD/CNY relationship offer a barometer of capital flight and the willingness of traders to move into on-chain assets or exit to cash. In the current climate, a modest 0.2% discount suggests a measured outflow rather than a rush for liquidity, reinforcing the narrative of caution rather than panic selling. This nuanced picture—combining price action, leverage cycles, and cross-asset flows—frames BTC as a barometer of risk sentiment rather than a standalone driver of returns in the near term.

What to watch next

  • BTC price action around the $81,000–$87,000 band, with a focus on whether the asset can reclaim momentum and establish a new upside base.
  • New ETF net flow data over the coming weeks, to determine whether institutional demand resumes or remains tepid.
  • Deribit and other derivatives gauges (delta skew, volatility surfaces) for signs of fading fear or renewed hedging pressure.
  • Any fresh developments on macro frontiers that could alter risk appetites, including inflation data and policy signals.

Sources & verification

  • Bitcoin price retest near $81,000 and related market moves (price page and price data references).
  • US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows totaling about $2.7 billion since Jan 16 (2.3% of AUM).
  • Gold’s three-month performance and its interaction with crypto markets (gold-related article referencing divergence).
  • BTC options delta skew reaching 17% (Deribit delta skew data; laevitas.ch source).
  • Reported leveraged long BTC futures liquidations around $860 million; open interest decline from $58B to $46B (CoinGlass and related charts).
  • Stablecoin liquidity indicators and USDT/CNY dynamics (OKX-based data visuals and captions).
  • Coinbase advisory board on quantum computing risks and public research planned for early 2027.
  • Related market analysis on potential “liquidation revenge” dynamics and BTC price catalysts.

Bitcoin market dynamics: options fear, ETF flows, and macro risk

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has found itself navigating a confluence of hedging-driven activity, ETF liquidity, and broader macro risk signals. The most notable marker is the jump in the delta skew of BTC options to 17%—the highest in more than a year—indicating an elevated demand for downside protection that can feed into heightened volatility as market makers hedge. This condition often materializes when traders anticipate more downside or when liquidity is contracting, even if the immediate price path appears uncertain. The practical upshot is that any negative surprise—be it a policy shift, macro data release, or unexpected liquidity shock—can trigger outsized moves as hedges unwind or recalibrate in a hurry. The Deribit delta skew metric depicted in the chart below, with its sourcing from laevitas.ch, offers a window into the market’s fear gauge and the distribution of risk bets across the spectrum of options contracts.

BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit
BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The recent price action, meanwhile, reflects not only fear but real liquidity dynamics. Leverage in the system has been purged to some degree, with approximately $860 million in leveraged long BTC futures liquidations observed between Thursday and Friday. While this purge reduces systemic risk in the near term, it also underscores how fragile short-term sentiment can become when a dramatic price swing occurs. At the same time, aggregate BTC futures open interest slipped to about $46 billion, down from roughly $58 billion three months ago, signaling a cautious tilt among market participants and a shift away from highly leveraged bets. The chart below from CoinGlass illustrates the current open interest landscape and helps contextualize the scale of deleveraging occurring in the market.

BTC futures aggregate open interest
BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Beyond outright price risk, the market is watching cross-asset flow signals, especially stablecoins, as a proxy for risk appetite. The current data indicate a modest shift in the USDT/CNY dynamic, with a 0.2% discount to the US dollar/CNY rate, indicating moderate outflows rather than an abrupt liquidity crunch. This stands in contrast to a typical 0.5%–1% premium and suggests that, at least in the near term, investors remain selective about their allocation to on-chain assets. Taken together with the price correction and the outflows from spot BTC ETFs, these indicators paint a cautious portrait: BTC could reclaim momentum if flows stabilize and risk sentiment improves, but the near-term path remains tethered to macro twists and the pace of institutional adoption.

In the broader context, investors should consider the potential implications of quantum computing risks on long-term security models for blockchains. While the field remains in early stages, industry observers emphasize the importance of ongoing research and preparedness. As Coinbase has signaled through its independent advisory board and forthcoming public research, this is a risk factor that could influence long-horizon holdings, even if it does not pose an immediate threat to today’s networks. At the same time, the market continues to watch for catalysts, such as potential policy shifts, ETF inflows, or regulatory developments, that could tilt risk sentiment in either direction. For now, the narrative is one of measured caution, with a focus on liquidity, hedging, and the durability of BTC’s longer-term value proposition in a rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

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JPMorgan Issues Bold Bitcoin Prediction Amid Crash

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Crypto Market Sell-Off

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and settle in — the market’s been on a rollercoaster lately. Bitcoin is moving, stocks are shifting, and headlines are coming fast. While some investors are hitting pause, others are watching closely, trying to read the signals beneath the noise.

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Slides Below $68,000 Amid Forced Deleveraging

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Thursday, before extending a leg down to levels below $68,000, an area last tested on October 28, 2024. The move came as intensified selling swept across crypto markets.

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Crypto Market Sell-Off
Crypto Market Sell-Off. Source: CoinGecko

The decline marks roughly a 45% drop from October highs, fueled by ETF outflows, fading demand, and a “forced deleveraging” phase in futures markets.

“…with demand fading, ETF inflows drying up, and futures markets entering a “forced deleveraging” phase. Analysts say weak volumes and sustained selling are prompting investors to exit at a loss, despite technical indicators signaling oversold conditions,” wrote Walter Deaton.

Weak volumes and sustained selling pressure have prompted many investors to exit positions at a loss, even as technical indicators signal oversold conditions.

Despite the short-term turbulence, JPMorgan is increasingly bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential relative to gold.

The bank highlighted that BTC is now trading well below its estimated production cost of $87,000, a level historically considered a soft floor, and that its volatility relative to gold has dropped to record lows.

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“…large outperformance of gold vs. Bitcoin since last October, coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility, has left Bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” MarketWatch reported, citing JPMorgan’s quantitative strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.  

According to the bank, this improved risk-adjusted profile suggests significant upside for investors willing to hold over a multi-year horizon.

Market stress metrics highlight the fragility of the current environment. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s capitulation metric has recorded its second-largest spike in two years. This reflects sharp forced selling and accelerated de-risking by market participants.

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Bitcoin Capitulation Metric and Price
Bitcoin Capitulation Metric and Price. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Bitcoin has erased all gains since Donald Trump won the election, wiping out a 78% post-election rally and highlighting ongoing volatility.

Crypto Stocks Tumble Amid Bitcoin Sell-Off and Rising Economic Uncertainty

Crypto equities mirror the broader weakness in Bitcoin. Shares of Coinbase, Riot, Marathon, and Strategy fell between 5% and 7% premarket after the drop below $70,000, with ETF holdings also down more than 5%.

The crypto downturn comes amid broader macroeconomic headwinds. US January layoffs surged 205% year-over-year to 108,435, the highest January total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Job cuts were concentrated in transportation — led by UPS — and tech, with Amazon announcing 16,000 layoffs. Healthcare also saw notable reductions.

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Meanwhile, federal job protections were overhauled, with the Trump administration finalizing reforms affecting 50,000 civil service workers. Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.84 million, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty.

Equity markets are also witnessing a similarly complex backdrop, with the BMO Capital Markets projecting the S&P 500 could reach 7,380 by the end of 2026, implying an 8% expected return.

The firm favors cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, energy, and financials, while underweighting defensive sectors. Inflation remains a principal risk, though global monetary and fiscal stimulus provide support.

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With all these in mind, Bitcoin and broader financial market investors face a delicate balancing act:

  • Technical oversold conditions and low relative volatility suggest a long-term opportunity
  • Yet, immediate pressures from leveraged positions, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment.

JPMorgan’s analysis points to potential gains for patient holders, but the short-term outlook remains volatile, reflecting a market in the midst of recalibration.

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Chart of the Day

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company Close As of February 4 Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR) $129.09 $120.78 (-6.58%)
Coinbase (COIN) $168.62 $159.42 (-5.46%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) $20.16 $19.10 (-5.26%)
MARA Holdings (MARA) $8.28 $7.81 (-5.68%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT) $14.14 $13.36 (-5.51%)
Core Scientific (CORZ) $16.15 $15.50 (-4.02%)
Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance

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Aave Delegate Platform Proposes Pausing Three L2 Deployments Citing Weak Revenue

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Aave Delegate Platform Proposes Pausing Three L2 Deployments Citing Weak Revenue

The proposal also includes requiring any new deployment to guarantee at least $2 million in annual revenue to Aave.

A governance delegation platform for Aave, the largest decentralized lending platform, with more than $29 billion in total value locked (TVL), has proposed pausing three underused Layer 2 deployments of Aave V3.

In a Jan. 29 governance proposal that moved to a snapshot vote on Feb. 3, the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI) proposed that Aave freeze its V3 deployments on Ethereum L2s zkSync Era, Metis, and Soneium to cut costs.

“Over time, it has become clear that a small subset of instances contributes very little user activity, TVL, and revenue, while still requiring a non-trivial amount of attention from service providers and governance participants,” ACI wrote in the prospal.

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The proposed reduction in L2 deployments aims “to reduce operational overhead and governance burden by addressing instances that are clearly non viable today.”

Among the three networks, zkSync currently has the largest TVL at about $26 million, followed by Soneium with $21.6 million and Metis with $11.7 million, according to DefiLlama data.

Over the past 30 days, Aave generated just $714 in revenue on zkSync, $679 on Metis, and just $150 on Soneium, per DefiLlama. For comparison, within the same timeframe Aave made over $7.7 million on Ethereum and nearly $298,000 on Base.

Now, ACI is pushing for stricter terms on future expansions. The proposal calls for any new chain deployment to guarantee Aave a minimum of $2 million in annual revenue, arguing that the protocol’s liquidity is often underpriced given the “upfront and recurring costs.”

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The snapshot vote on the proposal, which runs through Feb. 7, has so far drawn unanimous support, with 257,300 votes in favor and none against.

Voting kicked off the same day that Ethereum’s broader scaling strategy came under renewed scrutiny. As The Defiant reported earlier this week, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published an X post arguing that the rollup-centric roadmap for the network “no longer makes sense,” and arguing that L2s should focus on other use cases.

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Roubini Predicts a ‘Crypto Apocalypse’ Amidst Bitcoin’s Plunge Under Trump-Era Policies

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Roubini Predicts a 'Crypto Apocalypse' Amidst Bitcoin's Plunge Under Trump-Era Policies


Roubini said that Bitcoin behaves like a leveraged bet, rising and falling alongside high-risk equities rather than hedging uncertainty.

Economist Nouriel Roubini, who is known for his anti-crypto rhetoric, predicted a looming “crypto apocalypse.” He explained that the future of money and payments will evolve gradually rather than undergo the revolutionary transformation promised by cryptocurrency advocates.

In a recent post, Roubini said Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ latest price plunge demonstrates the extreme volatility of what he calls a “pseudo-asset class,” and expressed hope that policymakers recognize the risks before further damage occurs.

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He recalled that one year earlier, Donald Trump had returned to the US presidency after courting retail crypto investors and receiving significant backing from crypto industry figures. This led several evangelists to predict that Bitcoin would reach at least $200,000 by the end of 2025 and become “digital gold.”

Roubini: Bitcoin Isn’t a Hedge

According to Roubini, Trump followed through by dismantling most crypto regulations, signing the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stable Coins (GENIUS) Act, pushing the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, profiting from domestic and foreign crypto deals, promoting a meme coin bearing his name, pardoning crypto criminals allegedly linked to terrorist organizations, and hosting private White House dinners for crypto insiders.

Roubini noted that crypto was also expected to benefit from macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, including rising public debt, fiat currency debasement, trade wars, and increased tensions involving the US, Iran, and China, factors that coincided with gold rising more than 60% in 2025.

Bitcoin, however, fell 6% that year and, as of the time of writing, was down 42% from its October peak and below its level at Trump’s election, while the TRUMP and MELANIA meme coins had dropped 95%. Roubini said Bitcoin repeatedly declined during periods when gold rallied, and argued that it behaves as a leveraged risk asset correlated with speculative stocks rather than a hedge.

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He reiterated his long-standing view that crypto does not function as a currency, as it is neither a unit of account, a scalable payment system, nor a stable store of value, while citing El Salvador’s experience, where Bitcoin accounts for less than 5% of transactions. He further argued that crypto is not a true asset because it lacks income streams or real-world utility.

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On Stablecoins and Regulations

Roubini said the only widely adopted crypto application after 17 years is the stablecoin, which he described as a digital form of fiat money already replicated by traditional finance, and maintained that most blockchain-based systems are centralized, permissioned, and privately controlled. He asserted that fully decentralized finance will never scale because governments will not permit anonymous transactions, and that AML and KYC requirements undermine claims of lower costs.

While speaking about regulation, Roubini warned the GENIUS Act risks recreating the instability of 19th-century free banking, as stablecoins lack narrow bank regulation, lender-of-last-resort access, or deposit insurance, making them vulnerable to runs. He also criticized proposals allowing stablecoins to pay interest, and claimed that this could destabilize fractional reserve banking unless payments and credit creation are structurally separated.

Roubini’s comments come as Bitcoin continues its downward trajectory, falling a fresh 6% on Thursday and trading below $71,600 at the time of writing. The latest decline has added to broader market unease, and analysts are warning that continued weakness in BTC could have wider implications. Market experts have increasingly raised concerns that firms holding large BTC reserves may face massive balance-sheet stress and systemic risk if prices continue to slide.

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Sovcombank launches bitcoin-backed loans for Russian miners and businesses

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Sovcombank launches bitcoin-backed loans for Russian miners and businesses

Sovcombank, the ninth-largest Russian bank by assets, said it became the first financial institution in the country to offer bitcoin-backed loans to individuals and corporations who legally own digital assets.

The move follows a pilot program by state-owned Sberbank, which in late December issued the first such product to mining firm Intelion Data. While crypto-secured lending remains limited amid regulatory uncertainty, Russian banks have increasingly shown interest in borrowing against bitcoin as mining firms and crypto-holding businesses look to unlock liquidity while retaining their digital assets.

“Specifically, we offer bitcoin-secured lending, allowing our clients to raise financing for business development without having to sell their assets,” Marina Burdonova, Sovcombank’s compliance director, said in a statement. Only companies and individuals who legally own digital assets will have access to the bitcoin-backed lending products, she said.

Crypto mining in Russia became legal Nov. 1, 2024 after the government introduced a law allowing legal entities and entrepreneurs registered with the Ministry of Digital Development to engage in the activity. Unregistered miners could operate only if they do not exceed energy consumption limits.

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A month later, the government imposed a six-year ban on crypto mining in 10 regions due to the industry’s high power consumption. In December 2025, it reopened the cryptocurrency market to the public with new rules laid out by the country’s central bank.

“Mining has ceased to be a niche ‘bitcoin mining’ activity. It has become an investment class with predictable returns, a payback period and manageable risks,” Burdonova said. “Sovcombank sees potential in partnerships with all crypto industry participants, from miners and data center operators to crypto exchanges and money changers.”

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Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build

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Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build - 1

Binance’s price is approaching the $615 support zone as oversold conditions intensify, placing it at a critical technical inflection point.

Summary

  • $615 is a major confluence support combining the 0.618 Fibonacci, VWAP, and prior value area high
  • Rejection at $932 confirms bearish structure, keeping pressure on price in the short term
  • Oversold conditions raise bounce probability, but confirmation is needed for reversal

Binance (BNB) price has entered a sharp corrective phase following its recent swing high, with bearish momentum accelerating across multiple timeframes. After failing to sustain upside continuation, price has rotated lower in an impulsive fashion, signaling a clear shift in short- to medium-term market structure.

As BNB continues to unwind recent gains, attention is now turning toward a key high-timeframe support region near $615, where technical confluence suggests this level may play a decisive role in determining the next directional move.

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Binance price key technical points

  • $615 marks a major confluence support zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and VWAP support
  • High-timeframe resistance at $932 remains intact, reinforcing the broader corrective structure
  • Oversold conditions increase the probability of a relief bounce, provided structural support holds
Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build - 1
BNBUSDT (1W) Chart, Source: TradingView

The current corrective move began after Binance Coin established a new high at a time-frame resistance near $932.

This level acted as a decisive rejection point, where bullish momentum stalled and sellers regained control.

The failure to reclaim acceptance above this resistance confirmed a structural low and initiated the current impulsive move to the downside.

Since that rejection, price action has remained consistently bearish, with lower highs and expanding downside candles reflecting aggressive selling pressure. This behavior suggests that the move lower is not merely a shallow pullback, but a broader corrective rotation within the prevailing market cycle.

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$615 support zone comes into focus

As price continues to decline, the $615 region has emerged as the most important technical level in the near term.

This zone represents a high-confluence area where multiple technical factors align, including the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the broader move and VWAP-based support.

Additionally, this region sits above the previous range value area high, strengthening its relevance as a structural support level.

Historically, when price revisits such confluence zones after an impulsive move, the market often pauses to reassess value. If buyers step in to defend this area, it increases the likelihood that prices will stabilize and form a base for a corrective rebound.

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Oversold conditions signal potential exhaustion

Momentum indicators are now beginning to reflect oversold conditions following the extensive selling seen over recent days and weeks. While bearish trends can persist longer than expected, oversold readings often signal that downside momentum may be nearing exhaustion, especially when price approaches major support.

Importantly, oversold conditions alone do not confirm a reversal. However, when combined with strong structural support, they increase the probability of at least a short-term relief bounce. Any such bounce would likely be corrective in nature unless accompanied by a clear reclaim of higher resistance levels.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, the $615 region represents a critical make-or-break level for Binance Coin. A successful defense of this support could allow BNB to establish a higher low and trigger a rotation back toward higher price targets. Conversely, failure to hold this zone would expose the market to deeper corrective levels and extend the bearish structure.

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Until confirmation emerges, traders should closely monitor volume behavior and price reaction around support. A strong bullish response would signal improving demand, while continued weakness would reinforce downside risk. For now, all eyes remain on $615 as the market approaches a pivotal moment in Binance Coin’s corrective cycle.

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$1M Lightning Payment Tests Bitcoin’s Institutional Rails

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$1M Lightning Payment Tests Bitcoin’s Institutional Rails

Institutional trading and lending desk Secure Digital Markets (SDM) said it sent a $1 million payment to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken over the Lightning Network on Jan. 28.

SDM claimed in a Thursday statement shared with Cointelegraph that it is the largest publicly reported Lightning transaction to date and a proof‑of‑concept for seven‑figure transfers between regulated counterparties.

The payment cleared in 0.43 seconds and was routed via Voltage’s managed Lightning infrastructure, which provides node management, pre‑provisioned liquidity, and uptime guarantees aimed at exchanges and trading desks. 

The previously publicized “record” single payment milestone was about 1.24 Bitcoin (BTC), roughly $140,000 at the time, highlighting the rarity of six‑figure Lightning payments, let alone a clean, seven‑figure transfer in one shot.

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$1 million in a single Lightning transaction. Source: SDM

Voltage CEO Graham Krizek called the transaction an “important moment for Lightning and for institutional Bitcoin payments,” saying that a $1 million Lightning transfer highlighted the “its ability to meet enterprise requirements.”

Related: Lightning Network could nab 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028: Voltage CEO

Lightning metrics remain small, but growing

The transfer comes against a backdrop of mixed Lightning metrics. Capacity on public Lightning channels fell from over 5,400 BTC in late 2023 to about 4,200 BTC by mid 2025, before rebounding to a new all-time high capacity of over 5,600 BTC by December. 

That’s still a small pool of capital relative to Bitcoin’s market value, and most documented usage has skewed toward smaller payments.

Bitfinex, for example, had long capped Lightning deposits at 0.04 BTC before recently lifting limits to 0.5 BTC per payment and 2 BTC per channel.

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In a statement shared with Cointelegraph, Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether and chief technology officer at Bitfinex, called the Lightning Network a “powerful solution for all Bitcoin users” that began as a retail payments experiment

He said that Bitfinex had seen Lightning handle higher volumes with predictable settlement, lower costs and reduced onchain congestion, “all of which matter for institutional use cases.”

Fidelity and Blockstream see institutional potential

Fidelity Digital Assets, which published a 2025 report on Lightning using Voltage data, argued that the Lightning Network not only enhanced Bitcoin’s utility but also bolstered its investment case.

Related: Tether leads $8M funding for Lightning startup focused on stablecoins

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Fidelity noted that average Lightning capacity had increased by 384% since 2020, adding that the network presented a “transformative opportunity for both new and existing financial institutions.”

Blockstream, a Bitcoin‑focused infrastructure company, pushed a similar narrative in its Q4 2025 quarterly update.

The company highlighted Core Lightning releases focused on latency reduction and Lightning Service Provider (LSP) support, and pitched its Greenlight platform as a way for apps, exchanges and services to offer trust‑minimized Lightning functionality with minimal infrastructure burden, with an explicit roadmap for enterprise‑focused Lightning deployments.

Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

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