A fresh tax raid on Britain’s banks in October’s Budget would hand a competitive gift to rival global financial centres and see jobs and investment drain out of London, the chief executive of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations has warned.

Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, made the intervention as the financial sector gears up for a major lobbying push ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s Budget on 28 October. Union leaders are pressing for a windfall levy on bank profits to help fund relief on household energy bills, while a senior Wall Street bank boss is reported to have privately urged Healey against making the UK a more hostile place for banks to operate.

“Every finance minister eventually learns the same lesson the hard way,” Green said. “Capital doesn’t sit still and wait to be taxed. It moves to wherever the environment is friendliest, and it moves fast.”

Green pointed to New York as a live warning, citing reports of a material decline in finance roles in the city, with executives openly linking the exodus to its tax burden. “London should be paying very close attention to what’s happening across the Atlantic,” he said. “A city can price itself out of the industry that built its skyline, and once those jobs relocate, they rarely come back on demand.”

His comments follow a similar warning from Citigroup chief executive Jane Fraser, who said last month that she was worried by the UK’s 48 per cent bank tax rate and that “money votes with its feet”. In May, JPMorgan chairman Jamie Dimon said the bank would reconsider its planned £9.9bn Canary Wharf tower if the UK became “hostile to banks again”.

According to deVere, UK banks already carry a heavier load than most competitors realise. On top of corporation tax at 25 per cent, lenders pay an additional 3 per cent surcharge on their profits plus a separate levy on their balance sheets, both introduced in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and never fully unwound.

“Nobody is asking for sympathy for an industry that’s profitable again,” Green said. “But Britain’s banks are already taxed well above the rate applied to most other sectors. Layering a windfall charge on top of that only deepens an imbalance that already exists.”

Green acknowledged the political pressure on the Chancellor, with reports showing the UK’s largest banks posted combined profits above £29bn in the first half of the year, a figure unions are using to argue that the sector can easily absorb more.

“Big profit numbers make an easy talking point for anyone pushing a windfall tax,” he said. “What gets left out is that financial and professional services already deliver a record share of the tax take that funds the schools, hospitals and energy support Healey wants to protect. Punishing the sector that pays for those things is self-defeating.”

HMRC figures show the banking sector paid £35.2bn in PAYE, corporation tax, bank levy and bank surcharge receipts in the 2024 to 2025 financial year.

deVere says billions of pounds in planned UK office expansions and hiring are directly tied to the tax outlook, meaning firms are watching the Budget closely before committing further.

“Global banks don’t make 30-year property and headcount decisions based on hope,” Green said. “They make them based on whether a government looks predictable. Every signal of a harsher regime pushes that decision further from London and closer to Frankfurt, Dublin or New York.”

Healey has a narrower path than his predecessor faced, according to Green, given weaker growth and tighter borrowing headroom, which he said makes the temptation to reach for bank profits even stronger. Public sector borrowing came in at £1.8bn in July, against an Office for Budget Responsibility forecast of a £500m surplus, with borrowing in the financial year so far more than £2bn above the watchdog’s expectations.

“I understand the arithmetic behind wanting an easy pot of money to fund energy bill support,” Green said. “But taxing success out of the country doesn’t fund anything for long. It just moves the tax base somewhere else and leaves a smaller economy behind to cover the bill.”

He added: “Growth comes from stability, not from raiding the sector that’s finally performing. Healey has a genuine chance to back the industry that funds the country. Reaching for a windfall tax instead would be a costly mistake dressed up as a quick win.”

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

SYDNEY — Australian shares suffered their steepest one-day drop in months on Wednesday, as fresh U.S. military strikes on Iran sent oil prices surging and triggered a global bond market selloff that spooked investors across nearly every sector of the local market.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed at 8,978.4 points, down 88.3 points, or 0.97%, marking one of the market’s worst sessions in recent months. The broader All Ordinaries index also fell sharply, tracking losses across almost every corner of the market.

Only a small fraction of the 200 companies that make up the benchmark index finished the day in positive territory, with mining and gold stocks bearing the brunt of the selloff while energy producers were among the rare bright spots.

The rout began overnight after the United States launched new strikes against Iran, escalating a conflict that has now stretched into its seventh month. The attacks pushed Brent crude oil prices to a two-month high, reviving fears that higher energy costs could reignite inflation just as central banks around the world had been signaling confidence that price pressures were cooling.

Moomoo Australia chief market strategist Tapas Strickland said the shift in investor sentiment was swift and broad-based.

“The catalyst for the sudden shift in sentiment stems from escalating Middle East tensions following strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, raising immediate concerns over potential bottlenecks in critical global shipping channels,” Strickland said. “Higher energy costs risk re-igniting headline inflation just as central banks seek confirmation that price pressures are contained.”

Strickland added that while higher bond yields were expected to weigh on rate-sensitive growth stocks, banks and real estate, energy producers and materials heavyweights were likely to offer some support given elevated crude and firm commodity prices.

The selloff in equities was compounded by a deepening rout in global government bond markets. Australia’s 10-year bond yield jumped to 5.19%, its highest level in 15 years, as investors demanded greater compensation for what they see as rising inflation and fiscal risk. Similar pressure was evident overseas, with Japan’s 10-year yield touching 3% for the first time since 1996, and borrowing costs in Germany and the United Kingdom climbing to multi-year highs.

Gold miners were among the hardest hit locally after the precious metal’s spot price slid to a one-month low near $4,314 an ounce, pressured by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate move this month. Shares in several mid-tier gold producers fell between 6% and 7.5%, while a major copper miner dropped roughly 8%. The country’s largest iron ore miners also slumped, with declines of between 2% and 3.4% weighing heavily on the broader index given their size.

Energy stocks stood out as the exception, buoyed by the jump in oil prices, while a handful of individual gainers including a grains and agribusiness company, an insurer and the nation’s largest telecom operator posted solid gains.

The selloff came on the same day the Australian Bureau of Statistics released data showing the economy grew 0.4% in the June quarter and 2.1% over the year, a result that came in slightly ahead of market expectations and added a fresh layer of uncertainty for the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of its September policy meeting.

ABS head of national accounts Grace Kim said the underlying picture remained mixed.

“Economic growth remained subdued in the June quarter as households continued to behave cautiously,” Kim said. “While increased spending and business investment occurred in pockets of the economy, imports supported much of the growth, moderating its contribution to overall GDP growth.”

The stronger-than-forecast reading immediately fueled debate among economists over whether the central bank would resume raising interest rates this month. Capital Economics analyst Marcel Thielant said the data strengthened the case for further tightening.

“With GDP growth and inflation holding up better than the RBA had anticipated, the bank will probably hike rates again before long, perhaps as soon as this month,” Thielant said, noting the quarterly growth figure came in stronger than both the analyst consensus and the central bank’s own forecast.

Not all economists agreed a hike was imminent. BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese struck a more cautious tone, saying the numbers did not conclusively point to a September move.

“Ultimately, the jury remains out on a September rate decision,” Bassanese said. “The saving grace from the economic rut revealed by these numbers is they do not compel the RBA to raise rates, but they also do not rule out a hike in the future. My base case is that September will not bring a rate increase, as the RBA will want to see more evidence on inflation and the moderation in house prices.”

State Street Investment Management economist Krishna Bhimavarapu took a firmer view, pointing to the possibility of an increase as central banks elsewhere also lean toward tighter policy.

“Today’s GDP data surprised our bullish expectations,” Bhimavarapu said. “Absent another negative surprise in the August employment data, there are high chances of a September RBA hike now, particularly with the Fed, ECB and the BoJ also leaning hawkish.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the growth figures despite the market turmoil, framing Australia’s economic performance as resilient relative to its global peers.

“Annual growth in Australia was as strong or stronger than every major advanced economy — equal to the United States and much stronger than the rest,” Chalmers said. “Australia is outperforming when it comes to annual growth, we have stronger employment growth than almost every major advanced economy, and lower gross debt to GDP than every major advanced economy.”

Wednesday’s declines followed a soft start to September, after the ASX 200 had notched a fifth consecutive monthly gain in August. Losses on Wall Street overnight, driven by a sharp pullback in technology shares, had already set a cautious tone heading into the local session before the fresh Iran strikes deepened the selloff.

Market watchers said the path forward would likely hinge on whether the bond selloff stabilizes and on upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data, which could determine whether global interest rate expectations ease or harden further in the weeks ahead. For now, investors are bracing for continued volatility as geopolitical risk, inflation concerns and central bank policy uncertainty converge.

This article was written by

Follow

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock, you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

This article was written by

Follow

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GLD, MSDL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.