The US jobs report landed hotter than many economists expected in August, and the immediate ripple was felt across risk assets—including Bitcoin. According to figures released on Friday, the US economy added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, roughly three times the consensus estimate of about 56,000. Bitcoin initially slid from around $81,300 to local lows near $78,600 before recovering to about $79,500 by the time of writing.

The stronger labor market also injected fresh volatility into expectations for the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on Sept. 15–16. With the Fed’s path still being debated, traders appeared to reprice the odds of a pause versus a rate hike after the payroll release, even as parts of the political debate around interest rates intensified.

Key takeaways

• US nonfarm payrolls rose to 162,000 in August—well above the ~56,000 economist consensus.
• Bitcoin reacted with a selloff from $81,300 to $78,600, then rebounded to roughly $79,500.
• Polymarket’s implied probabilities for the Sept. 16 FOMC rate decision swung back toward a 50/50 split after the data.
• A Blake2b-based Bitcoin fork (continuation of the BIP-110 chain) recorded early spot activity, with coins trading on Neoxa around $350 versus USDC.

Hotter payrolls shift FOMC expectations again

Labor market strength tends to matter for central-bank policy because it can influence whether inflation pressures persist and how quickly—if at all—the Fed can comfortably ease rates. This latest set of numbers landed decisively above forecast, and traders reacted in real time.

Earlier in the week, sentiment around the upcoming FOMC meeting had already been unstable. In particular, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled on Thursday that he would favor a pause pending upcoming inflation data. That comment helped move market-implied odds: Polymarket reportedly shifted probabilities to 60% for a pause and 40% for a 25 basis-point rate hike.

Friday’s labor data changed the picture. After the payrolls beat expectations, implied probabilities returned to a roughly even split, with Polymarket showing a 50/50 division between the pause and a 25 basis-point hike.

Beyond the markets, political pressure on the Fed’s policy direction also became part of the narrative. US President Donald Trump used Truth Social to demand further rate cuts, arguing that high interest rates put the US at a disadvantage and saying he would not allow it. The post also framed the debate as a change in stance from previous leadership—after Trump had criticized former Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates, though he waited until Friday to make a similar demand aimed at the then-newer Fed leadership context.

Why Bitcoin sold off after a jobs beat

Bitcoin’s drop immediately after the payroll release followed a pattern investors have seen in many rate-sensitive environments: stronger economic prints can increase expectations that borrowing costs will remain higher for longer. That can translate into tighter financial conditions and reduced appetite for high-volatility assets.

In this case, the chart response was clear. Bitcoin moved off roughly $81,300 to local lows around $78,600 following the data, then partially recovered to about $79,500. While that rebound suggests traders were not fully committed to a sustained risk-off trajectory, the initial selloff highlights how quickly macro data can overpower other narratives when the policy path feels uncertain.

With the next FOMC meeting approaching, this jobs report adds another data point traders can use to calibrate their view of the Fed’s reaction function. What remains uncertain is not only the direction of policy, but also whether committee members ultimately align behind a single approach—especially as forward guidance has been viewed by many traders as less anchored than it was during prior eras of clearer signaling.

Blake2b Bitcoin fork finds its first thin liquidity

Separate from the macro-driven market moves, a technical development inside the “Bitcoin fork” ecosystem drew attention. After the BIP-110 soft fork activated on Aug. 7, the network temporarily split between a chain enforcing BIP-110 rules and another chain continuing under the previous ruleset.

Supporters of BIP-110 argued the branch struggled because miners did not allocate enough computational power to continue extending it. In response, they have pointed to this outcome as evidence—at least in their view—of how concentrated influence can be within the mining layer. Their criticism centers on the fact that only a small number of mining pools control the majority of Bitcoin’s hashrate, meaning the same entities can strongly affect which chain progresses and which transactions make it into blocks.

From there, a subset of BIP-110 supporters pursued a different approach. Led by LukeDashjr, they continued the BIP-110 chain while changing the proof-of-work algorithm to Blake2b, aiming—according to the proponents’ rationale—to make it easier for a different set of miners to participate using DATUM gateway technology. The relevant hard fork was initiated on Aug. 30.

A key practical implication is that holders of SHA-256 Bitcoin balances were mapped 1:1 into the Blake2b version: every address holding SHA-256 Bitcoin before Aug. 7 (and possibly after) is reported to hold an equivalent amount on the Blake2b chain.

At the moment, liquidity is still limited. The only exchange listing Blake2b Bitcoin is Neoxa. Even so, early trading is visible: Blake2b coins are trading at about $350 against USDC, with an approximately 1.1% spread, based on Neoxa’s order book for the pair BTCB2/USDC.

What to watch next: macro volatility and fork liquidity

Going forward, the immediate driver of Bitcoin’s near-term mood is likely to remain macro—especially around the Fed meeting on Sept. 15–16, where fresh labor and inflation data can still reweight the market’s odds. At the same time, the Blake2b fork story is a separate but related reminder that “Bitcoin ecosystem” developments are increasingly moving in parallel paths—where token availability on exchanges and liquidity depth may determine whether these narratives can move beyond niche trading.

The tokenized real-world asset market has reached $34.6 billion onchain, but only $3.79 billion has been deployed in protocols, leaving about 89% of issued value idle.

DefiLlama data shows a sharp difference between the value of tokenized assets issued onchain and the amount being used inside decentralized finance protocols.

BlackRock’s BUIDL has a utilization rate of 0.64%, while Franklin Templeton’s BENJI stands at 0% and Circle’s USYC at 0.52%, according to the platform. Each product gives holders exposure to yield-bearing assets, but little of their issued value has moved into the protocols covered by DefiLlama’s utilization measure.

Products created for use as collateral show a different pattern. Centrifuge’s tokenized Janus Henderson Anemoy AAA CLO Fund, known as JAAA, has reached 97.97% utilization, while Re Protocol’s reUSD stands at 97.87% and Maple Finance’s SyrupUSDT at 88.84%.

Artem Tolkachev, chief RWA officer at Falcon Finance, told crypto.news that the gap cannot be understood from one utilization figure alone. In his view, analysts must first examine what the asset was created to do and then identify where holders are using it.

“Low utilization is weak utility when a product was built and priced to be borrowed against and stays flat after launch,” Tolkachev said.

“An underlying fund that is held for yield and redeems on time is doing its job at zero utilization.”

Tokenized RWA utilization requires more than one measure

Tolkachev separates utilization into two levels. At the asset level, he examines redemption speed, the party responsible for honoring redemptions, the stability of the yield, and the losses holders could face after a default.

At the use level, he looks at whether an asset is being held for yield, posted as collateral at a centralized exchange, or supplied to a DeFi protocol. Each route carries different terms and risks, he said, making protocol utilization an incomplete measure of total demand.

Assets held by custodians or supplied as margin at derivatives venues may perform an economic function without appearing in DeFi utilization data. Money market funds, for example, are commonly purchased as cash-management products rather than assets that must circulate through lending pools.

Wrappers designed specifically for DeFi require a different test, according to Tolkachev. If their main purpose is to support borrowing or other onchain activity, a low utilization rate after launch can point to weak adoption.

A similar gap has appeared at the network level. An August report found that Stellar’s RWA market had grown from about $785 million in January to more than $3 billion in July, while RWA-enabled pools on its Blend lending protocol held only slightly more than $2 million.

RedStone attributed part of the gap to the difficulty of pricing traditional assets around the clock. U.S. Treasuries, money market funds and corporate credit do not produce continuous market prices in the same way as Bitcoin or Ether, leaving lending protocols to manage stale valuations when the underlying markets are closed.

Falcon applies five tests before accepting RWA collateral

Before Falcon accepts assets such as JAAA, the JTRSY Treasury fund, or tokenized Mexican CETES, Tolkachev said its underwriting process focuses on two outcomes: how quickly the protocol can turn seized collateral into cash and how much value it could recover under stressed conditions.

The first test covers the token holder’s legal claim. Falcon examines whether the token provides a perfected claim on assets held through a bankruptcy-remote structure or merely an unsecured promise from the issuer. The review also considers what would happen to holders if the issuer failed.

Redemption terms form the second test. Some tokenized money market funds can redeem directly into a stablecoin onchain, while liquidity facilities may buy fund shares at net asset value onto their own balance sheets. Other products depend on the issuer and the timetable written into the fund documents.

“We read the documents, not the deck,” Tolkachev said. “A collateral asset you cannot exit in stress is not collateral.”

Falcon then examines secondary-market liquidity to determine whether another buyer exists or whether redemption is the only exit. A limited secondary market can slow a liquidation or force the protocol to accept a lower price when it needs to close a position.

The fourth test covers the price feed, including how the asset is valued and whether the data can resist manipulation when its underlying market is closed. Credit quality completes the review through an assessment of ratings, duration, issuer exposure, and portfolio concentration.

Falcon classifies JAAA as exposure to AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations, while JTRSY holds short-term U.S. government debt and CETES represents short-dated Mexican sovereign bills. The protocol has added JAAA and JTRSY as accepted collateral and separately integrated tokenized Mexican bills.

“If any one of those five legs fails, it does not become collateral, however attractive the yield,” Tolkachev said.

Closed markets increase liquidation risk for tokenized RWAs

DeFi loans run continuously, but the securities behind many RWA tokens trade during limited hours. Tolkachev said Falcon sets collateral factors by measuring price volatility, the time needed to sell the asset, and the period during which the protocol could be unable to transact or obtain a fresh valuation.

Structured credit and non-U.S. sovereign bills may not trade overnight or during weekends. A borrower can still approach a liquidation threshold during that period, leaving the protocol with collateral it cannot immediately sell.

To account for the mismatch, Falcon applies larger haircuts when an underlying market has long closures or limited secondary liquidity. Its liquidation thresholds also include a buffer for periods when the asset cannot be traded, while its pricing process may hold or discount a stale valuation instead of relying on a thin off-hours trade.

Weekend news creates another risk because the credit or sovereign asset may reopen at a different price. Tolkachev said Falcon adds a cushion for such gaps and sizes borrowing capacity according to what the protocol could liquidate during the asset’s most difficult trading window, rather than using its full face value.

The issue has direct relevance for tokenized U.S. Treasuries and funds holding American government securities. Although their blockchain tokens can move at any hour, reliable prices and access to the underlying Treasury market still depend on traditional trading, settlement, and redemption systems.

A June guide to RWA tokenization noted that putting an asset onchain does not alter its legal character. Token holders still depend on fund structures, custodians, transfer restrictions, and the laws governing the underlying claim.

RWA underwriting capacity remains concentrated

Few DeFi protocols accept structured credit or sovereign debt as collateral because the review requires legal, credit, and operational expertise, according to Tolkachev. Most lending protocols were built to list liquid crypto tokens with continuous exchange prices, a model that does not cover fund documents, bankruptcy claims, or issuer-managed redemptions.

Underwriting also requires protocols to create liquidation procedures for assets whose markets may be closed when a loan becomes undercollateralized. Since much of that work is specific to each product, Tolkachev said it cannot be fully automated.

Capacity has consequently gathered at a small number of venues able to complete such reviews. Pools that accept assets built for collateral use can fill quickly, even as much larger tokenized funds remain outside lending and borrowing markets.

Centrifuge offers one example of demand concentrating around an asset with a defined use. In August 2025, its total value locked crossed $1.1 billion, supported by more than $653 million in JAAA and over $392 million in its tokenized Treasury fund. At the time, JAAA was available to non-U.S. professional investors with a minimum investment of $500,000.

Tolkachev said expanding underwriting capacity would require common standards covering the legal rights attached to RWA tokens and the process for redeeming them. He also called for reliable price feeds for assets with closed-market hours and detailed disclosures covering portfolio composition, issuer exposure and concentration.

Key points:

• The US economy added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, nearly triple economists’ consensus estimate of 56,000.
• Bitcoin sold off from $81,300 to local lows of $78,600 following the data, before recovering to $79,500.
• A rival Bitcoin fork using the Blake2b algorithm saw its first trading activity, with coins changing hands at $350 on exchange Neoxa.

Labor market beats expectations threefold

According to data released on Friday, the US economy added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, significantly outperforming economists’ consensus expectations of roughly 56,000 jobs. In response to the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) sold off from $81,300 to local lows of $78,600. At the time of writing it stands at $79,500. 

Recent economic data carries added weight, given how divided rate outlooks remain ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 15-16. Under previous Federal Reserve chairs, expectations ahead of the FOMC were mostly well-anchored. However, the lack of forward guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh, along with potential dissenters in the committee, has resulted in added uncertainty. 

After Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would favor a rate pause pending upcoming inflation data, Polymarket probabilities swung to 60% in favor of a pause and 40% for a 25 basis-point interest rate hike. Friday’s labor market data however, drove the implied probabilities back to a 50/50 split.

Implied Probabilities for the Sep. 16 FOMC rate decision. Source: Polymarket

In response to the strong labor market data, US President Donald Trump leveled new rate-cut demands. “The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change,” he stated in a Truth Social post and continued: “High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, ⁠and I won’t allow that to happen!”

Trump had frequently criticized former Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates, but had held back from making similar statements toward Warsh until Friday. 

Blake2b version of Bitcoin attracts first liquidity

When the BIP-110 soft fork activated on Aug. 7, the Bitcoin network briefly split into two competing chains: one enforcing BIP-110’s new rules and another continuing under the existing rules. The BIP-110 side largely stalled because miners did not devote enough computing power to extending that chain.

BIP-110 supporters viewed miners’ refusal to follow the user-activated soft fork (UASF) as evidence that Bitcoin’s mining layer has become too centralized. That criticism was sharpened by the absence of an organized counter-effort from the Bitcoin Core side, such as a user-rejected soft fork (URSF). Only five mining pools control the vast majority of Bitcoin’s hashrate, concentrating significant influence over which chain is extended and which transactions are included in blocks.

Bitcoin Network Hashrate Distribution. Source: Blockchain.com

In response, a subset of BIP-110 supporters, led by LukeDashjr, decided to continue the BIP-110 chain with a change in the proof-of-work algorithm to Blake2b to allow for a new, more decentralized set of miners to emerge using DATUM gateway technology. The corresponding hard fork was initiated on Aug. 30. Every address that held SHA-256 Bitcoin before Aug. 7 (and possibly after) will hold an equivalent amount on the Blake2b version of Bitcoin. So far, the only exchange listing Blake2b Bitcoin is Neoxa. While liquidity remains thin, Blake2b coins are currently trading at $350 against USDC with a 1.1% spread. 

BTCB2/USDC orderbook. Source: Neoxa Exchange

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