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What Cardiff can learn from Manchester on innovation

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The city’s innovation assets are geographically fragmented, institutionally divided, and too often marketed independently.

Manchester.(Image: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

Economic development often assumes that naming something is the same as creating it, and we’ve often seen buildings become innovation centres, loose collections of organisations described as ecosystems, and, increasingly, any cluster of offices, laboratories, and public-sector institutions described as an innovation district.

But a genuine innovation district is far more demanding, as it is not simply a place where research happens, nor an incubator surrounded by apartments and coffee shops. It is a concentrated part of a city where universities, hospitals, investors, established companies, entrepreneurs, and start-ups are brought together in a way that encourages ideas, people, and capital to flow among them.

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And whilst Manchester has one, Cardiff disappointingly does not.

With Andy Burnham taking his place as the new Prime Minister, it is worth noting that part of Manchester’s success as an economic hotspot stems from the ongoing development of the Oxford Road Corridor and the ambitious Sister innovation district being created on land previously occupied by the University of Manchester.

Sister is a £1.7bn development spread over 15 years, with plans for laboratories, offices, start-up space, homes, shops, restaurants and public areas. It is expected to accommodate businesses from their earliest stages through to becoming significant employers, rather than serving as an incubator from which successful companies are eventually forced to leave.

This is not simply another property development with the word innovation attached to it, but an attempt to build an economic system within a physical place. It also sits within a wider corridor that already brings together two universities, major hospitals, science parks, cultural institutions, tens of thousands of students, and more than 100,000 workers.

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The critical point is not that each of these organisations exists because Cardiff also has universities, hospitals, research centres, and talented graduates, but that Manchester has spent years connecting them to make a real difference to the local economy.

It would be easy to attribute this entirely to the Prime Minister’s previous role, but much of the foundation predates his election as mayor, with Manchester’s universities, local government, health institutions and private investors collaborating for years.

That said, Mr Burnham has strengthened that model, given it a powerful public voice, and linked it to wider priorities such as transport, skills and devolved decision-making.

More importantly, the innovation district is the product of patient civic leadership, institutional cooperation and a willingness to think beyond individual projects and political cycles.

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That is where Cardiff has fallen behind. Our capital city does not lack innovation assets. Cardiff University has its innovation campus and the Sbarc/Spark building, and it has recognised strengths in creative industries, financial technology, cyber security and life sciences.

The wider city region includes the compound semiconductor cluster around Newport, one of the most significant concentrations of expertise of its kind in Europe.

Yet these remain separate pieces of an unfinished jigsaw, with Cardiff developing projects rather than a place, programmes rather than a system, and partnerships rather than a single organisation with the authority and resources to deliver.

Unlike those of Manchester and other successful innovation districts, the city’s innovation assets are geographically fragmented, institutionally divided, and too often marketed independently.

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Manchester’s great advantage is not merely scale but alignment and its universities, local government and private investors have been prepared to work together and use land, capital and institutional influence collectively.

Specialist property developers have been brought in to provide the laboratories, flexible workspaces and scale-up accommodation that the conventional commercial market will rarely build on its own.

There is also an acceptance that innovation districts require long-term investment and cannot be created through a three-year funding programme, launched at a ministerial event and then quietly set aside by the next initiative.

This raises an obvious question, namely why Cardiff, the capital city of a nation with control over economic development, planning, skills and many aspects of transport, has not developed something comparable?

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Part of the answer lies in a historic lack of ambition around place-based innovation, and Cardiff’s major regeneration projects have largely prioritised government offices, corporate occupiers, housing, retail and major events.

Yes, Central Square has been transformed, but it was not conceived with entrepreneurship, laboratories, or high-growth businesses in mind.

Yet an opportunity now exists to create an innovation district around Cardiff Central, Central Quay, and the land south of the railway station. It is the most accessible location in Wales, close to the commercial centre and able to connect with specialist sites elsewhere in Cardiff and Newport.

The existing university campus, Heath Park, Cardiff Edge and the semiconductor cluster would remain important nodes, but there must be one recognisable heart of the system that should contain affordable space for start-ups, laboratories and prototyping facilities, access to investors, support for university spinouts and, crucially, premises for businesses to occupy as they grow.

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That last point matters because Manchester has not solved everything, and like most UK cities, it remains better at producing start-ups than at retaining companies that require substantial growth capital.

Yes, some successful founders will still move to London or overseas to finance the next stage of their development, but Cardiff should learn from that weakness as well as Manchester’s strengths, because a genuine innovation district must not simply help people start businesses but must give them a reason to remain, grow and build significant companies in Wales.

Manchester has not discovered a magic formula, but it has shown what happens when political leadership, universities, property, investment, and entrepreneurship are treated as parts of the same strategy. More importantly, Cardiff could do the same with the right political will and economic vision.

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UK tourist tax could do ‘more harm than good’, hotel bosses warn

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Leaders in the West Country are set to gain new powers to charge a levy on overnight stays

View of Bristol houses

View of Bristol houses(Image: Pexels/Martyna Bober)

A group of Bristol hotel bosses is warning that taxing visitor overnight stays could do “more harm than good” and are calling to be involved in any changes across the region.

Leaders in the West Country are set to gain new powers to charge a so-called “tourist tax” on overnight stays as a percentage of the cost of accommodation such as hotels and bed and breakfasts.

Helen Godwin, head of the West of England Combined Authority (Weca), is among 10 regional Labour mayors who have already pledged to cap the new fee on visitors’ tax at five per cent.

The Bristol Hoteliers Association (BHA), which represents a host of major hotels across the city, says it is “not opposed” to investment in Bristol but has “serious questions” it wants answered before any tourist tax is introduced.

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Pramod Shaw, deputy chair of the BHA, said: “We intend to make sure those questions are heard loud and clear. Our industry has already absorbed significant financial pressures in recent years – soaring energy costs, increases in the National Living Wage and higher employer National Insurance contributions, which have all taken their toll.

“The Overnight Visitor Levy Bill has reignited fury across the business travel and hospitality industries, as this is not the time to add yet another cost to our sectors.”

Among the questions the BHA want answered is what the money raised from the levy will be used for. Mr Shaw said: “The BHA would like cast-iron guarantees that revenue raised will be ring-fenced and invested directly into Bristol’s visitor economy, improving transport links, enhancing the visitor experience and marketing Bristol more as a destination.

“We need transparency, accountability and firm guarantees, not vague promises.”

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Ms Godwin has promised that “nothing is happening overnight” and has said there is a need to review “best practice from elsewhere”.

Many other European countries already apply tax to overnight stays on accommodation including in France, Italy and The Netherlands.

“We are used to paying a visitor levy ourselves when we go on holiday to other countries, and now is the time to look at making sure we can invest more in what matters through a small charge on overnight stays here – with common-sense exemptions where we need them,” added Ms Godwin.

The mayor said any funds raised could potentially be used to support improvements to the West’s transport network, including adding more late-night services.

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“More late-night services would help more people enjoy what our region has to offer – and enable workers to get home more easily – and so would some more funding for public spaces including in central Bath and Bristol, alongside new support for the sectors that support tourism,” she added. “Things like this become possible sooner if we raise new funding through an overnight visitor levy.”

The West of England visitor economy currently generates around £2.7bn in visitor spend a year and supports more than 43,000 jobs.

The BHA says it is concerned adding a tourist tax could make Bristol and the wider region less attractive to visitors.

“Bristol does not exist in a vacuum, visitors have choices,” added Mr Shaw. “Several industry bodies have already warned that the UK applies much higher VAT rates than many competing countries, and levies the highest air departure tax in the world.

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“Adding yet another charge risks making Bristol a less attractive proposition compared to other UK cities that may choose not to implement a levy.”

Other concerns raised by the BHA include who pays for administering the new charge. Mr Shaw said hotels did not want to become “unpaid tax collectors”.

“Household budgets are already being stretched, with fuel and food costs, and people could be prevented from staying in hotels at all if there is yet another additional cost to consider.

“We are not simply saying no to the levy, but we are here to represent the interests of Bristol’s hospitality industry and ensure that any decisions made are in the best long-term interests of this great city.

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“If a levy is introduced, it must be fair, transparent and must be invested back into the visitor economy. We need a solution that works for Bristol’s visitors – who come from all over the world – Bristol’s businesses and Bristol’s future.”

Industry trade body UKHospitality has also criticised the proposals, claiming it could add around £100 to £120 on average to the cost of a family holiday in England.

“We know, don’t we, that local government is struggling for funds – it was hit very hard by austerity,” UKHospitality chief executive Allen Simpson told the BBC. “If you only devolve one tax raising power, of course local mayors are going to pull that lever until it snaps.”

Conservative shadow housing secretary David Simmonds added: “VAT is already charged at 20 per cent on hotels – much higher than in other countries – and now they’ll pay VAT on this tourism tax too: a Labour double whammy.”

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Petards reports return to operating profits as orders for rail and defence tech increase

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Bosses expect full year results to be significantly better than 2025

The Petards factory in Team Valley

The Petards factory in Team Valley(Image: -Newcastle Journal)

Surveillance and security tech maker Petards has returned to operating profit and with a larger order book.

The manufacturer of CCTV systems for trains, communications systems for the defence sector and automatic numberplate recognition technology has reported a small half-year operating profit of £14,000 in the six months to the end of June – its first operating level profit since 2022. Bosses said delivery of higher margin work was responsible for the progress with stronger orders coming from rail and defence customers.

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Petards’ order book at the end of June was £9.6m, up from £9.2m at the end of December, and supplemented with £700,000 of rail orders announced by the London Stock Exchange-listed firm in August. Revenues for the half year were slightly lower at £7.7m, compared to £7.9m in the same period last year.

But cash generation increased to £894,000, from £860,000. That led to reduction in net debt to £1.15m from £1.33m at the end of last year.

The firm runs its main rail sector factory at Team Valley, Gateshead. That division saw improved trading in the second half of 2025 and into the first half of this year with more orders and higher activity levels.

In H1 2026, total orders in the rail business were at a level not seen in more than five years. They included a £500,000 contract for retrofitting eyeTrain systems – used to detect track debris, to investigate incidents, for operational monitoring and for passenger security.

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Meanwhile defence revenues were helped by the start of work on a £2.2m order from military vehicles maker Rheinmetall BAE Systems, for engineering design work on the Challenger 3 tank. And the group’s QRO business which makes automatic number plate readers was said to have rebounded in the first half following a weaker performance at the end of 2025.

Raschid Abdullah, chairman of Petards, said: “The upward trend in the group’s trading performance has continued into 2026, particularly in rail and defence where order intake has seen improvements over that of recent years. This in turn has driven greater operational efficiencies in those areas and improvements in gross profit margin.

“This has led to the order book at June 30, 2026 increasing to £9.6m (December 31, 2025: £9.2m) which has been supplemented by the further rail orders announced in August. We expect the group to continue to generate cash in the second half, and for a further reduction in net debt by the year end.

“The board remains confident that the group will perform well over the remainder of the year, and with the benefit of its current order book, it expects to deliver another significant improvement in its results over those achieved in 2025.”

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FTSE 100 Rebounds 0.36% Friday, Snapping Five-Day Losing Streak As Oil Prices Weigh On Global Markets

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Tesla's robotaxi launch in Texas comes as Elon Musk focuses on his business ventures following his stint in Washington

LONDON — Britain’s FTSE 100 index climbed 38.53 points, or 0.36%, to 10,647.45 as of late morning Friday, offering a modest reprieve for London-listed shares after five consecutive sessions of losses driven by surging oil prices and rising global bond yields.

The index traded within a range of 10,602.13 to 10,647.98 during the session, according to live market data, recovering from Thursday’s close of 10,608.92, which had marked the FTSE 100’s lowest level since the beginning of August. Thursday’s session alone saw the index decline 0.57%, extending a losing streak that had persisted across the entire trading week amid a broader deterioration in global market sentiment.

According to Sunday Guardian Live’s market forecast ahead of Friday’s session, the FTSE 100 was expected to open modestly higher following the prior five-day decline, though analysts cautioned that any recovery was likely to remain limited given continued pressure from soaring oil prices, elevated global bond yields and rising interest rate expectations weighing on the broader market environment. The FTSE 250, London’s mid-cap index, had fallen 0.92% during Thursday’s session, reflecting even sharper losses among smaller and mid-sized UK companies during the week’s broader selloff.

The primary driver behind the week’s sustained weakness has been a dramatic increase in global oil prices tied to escalating conflict in the Middle East, with the resulting inflation concerns feeding directly into higher bond yields and renewed expectations for continued interest rate tightening among major central banks. A stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price report released earlier in the week further boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at its upcoming September meeting, adding to the broader pressure on risk assets across global markets, including UK equities.

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Technical analysis of the FTSE 100’s recent price action has painted a cautious picture heading into Friday’s session. According to trading analysis from Nick Hilsden published Friday morning, the index’s chart structure had “deteriorated again” over the preceding sessions, with a recovery attempt failing the day before and the index’s short-term moving averages continuing to trend lower. Hilsden noted the index remained firmly positioned within a descending trading channel, with key resistance levels identified in the 10,650 to 10,668 range and a more significant daily pivot point near 10,701, a level Hilsden described as having served as a major resistance point during Thursday’s trading.

Hilsden’s analysis suggested a generally bearish near-term outlook for the index, even while cautioning against aggressively betting on further declines given how far the FTSE 100 had already fallen relative to its short-term technical indicators, with the daily relative strength index sitting around 32.7, a level often associated with an asset being oversold in the near term.

The FTSE 100, formally known as the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index and commonly referred to as the “Footsie,” represents the 100 most highly capitalized companies with primary listings on the London Stock Exchange. The index, which began trading on Jan. 3, 1984, carries a total market capitalization of approximately £2.492 trillion as of its most recent formal review in June, and is maintained and calculated by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group.

Over the trailing 52 weeks, the FTSE 100 has traded within a considerably wider range than this week’s movements alone might suggest, spanning from a low of 9,107.40 to a high of 10,989.45, according to data compiled by Investing.com, illustrating the substantial overall gains the index has posted over the past year even amid this week’s sharper pullback. Trading volume for the index has remained robust throughout the recent volatility, with recent daily volume figures exceeding 837 million shares traded.

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This week’s broader selloff across UK equities unfolded alongside similar pressure across global markets, with the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continuing to drive volatility in oil markets throughout the week. That conflict has kept energy prices elevated and added a persistent layer of uncertainty to the broader macroeconomic outlook facing central banks and investors alike, both in the UK and internationally, as markets continue attempting to price in the combined effects of geopolitical risk, inflation pressure and shifting interest rate expectations heading into the final months of the year.

Beyond the FTSE 100 specifically, the broader family of UK stock indices maintained by FTSE Russell has continued to reflect similar pressures throughout the week. The FTSE 250, which tracks mid-cap companies ranked 101st through 350th by market capitalization on the London Stock Exchange, carries a combined market capitalization of approximately £274 billion as of its most recent March review, with financials, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors together accounting for roughly 74% of that index’s overall weighting. The FTSE 350, which combines both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 into a single broader large- and mid-cap index, maintains a total market capitalization of approximately £2.710 trillion.

With Friday’s modest rebound offering some relief following the week’s sustained selling pressure, investors are likely to remain focused in the coming sessions on whether oil prices continue climbing amid the unresolved Middle East conflict, along with any further signals from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England regarding the path of interest rates heading into the final months of 2026. Given the technical deterioration flagged by market analysts and the continued macroeconomic headwinds facing London-listed equities, Friday’s gain appears more likely to represent a tentative pause within a broader cautious trading environment than a definitive turning point for the index following its worst weekly stretch since the beginning of August.

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First co-living scheme in Wales in major refinancing deal

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Urban Centric has a new £24.25m funding facility with Handelsbanken

The rooftop terrace at Fitz & Knox, Image from Cardiff Centric.

A developer behind a co-living scheme in the centre of Cardiff has secured a new £24.25m funding deal.

The Fitz & Knox project, the first co-living development in Wales, provides 208 rented studio apartments alongside communal facilities including a cinema room, gym, games room, co-working spaces and a rooftop terrace.

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Completed earlier this year, the scheme is now fully occupied.

Cardiff-based Urban Centric, through special purpose vehicle Fitz & Knox Ltd, has refinanced a funding facility with Handelsbanken. The previous facility, provided by Shawbrook, supported the completion of the scheme. The deal marks Handelsbanken’s first funding transaction in the growing co-living market.

Lloyds is also an equity investor in the scheme through its Housing Growth Partnership arm, following a £7.9m investment.

The 100,000 sq ft building on Fitzalan Place was previously occupied by financial services firm Legal & General, which vacated the building after moving to its new Welsh headquarters at the Interchange scheme in 2023.

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Chris Price, branch manager at Handelsbanken Cardiff, said: “At Handelsbanken we are committed to helping our customers achieve their ambitions. Our relationship ethos, combined with our expertise in the property space, makes us well placed to support innovative and sophisticated developments like this.

“We are very proud to be supporting Fitz & Knox as it delivers a unique proposition for professionals in Cardiff – the first of its kind in Wales. We are also delighted that its sustainable values are closely aligned with our own, and that we can help the team continue to achieve them.”

Andrew Woods, managing director of Urban Centric, said: “The Handelsbanken team have really taken the time to understand what we are trying to achieve here in Cardiff and have become a key strategic partner in helping us deliver this ambitious development.

“Fitz & Knox is a real milestone for the development of the co-living model in Wales, as well as a significant contribution to environmentally responsible property. Handelsbanken’s support has been central to helping us make this happen.”

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Hugh James, through real estate finance partner David Marshall and senior associate David Penwarden, acted for Handelsbanken on the refinancing. Claudia Le Gros and Charlotte McPhail of Knights acted for Fitz & Knox Ltd.

Mr Marshall said: “We are delighted to have acted for Handelsbanken on the £24.25m refinance of the newly completed Fitz & Knox co-living scheme in central Cardiff.

“This project is Wales’ first co-living development scheme and has been a huge success – it’s not often you see accommodation on this scale fully occupied within 13 weeks of completion.

“It was a pleasure supporting Handelsbanken on such a landmark project, which highlights the bank’s appetite to facilitate new development projects in South Wales, as well as its commitment to supporting local developers.”

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Thailand has approved a new investment program in AI and automation aimed at supporting domestic businesses

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Thailand has approved a new investment program in AI and automation aimed at supporting domestic businesses

Thailand has approved 55 new projects under its National Competitiveness Enhancement Fund, targeting AI, automation, digital technology, R&D and green-industry upgrades. The latest round covers 48 Business Transformation projects with THB3.54 billion of investment and THB1.663 billion in support, plus seven Skill Bridge projects aimed at building the workforce needed for future industries.

Key figures / indicators: 55 new projects; THB3.54bn investment under Business Transformation; THB1.663bn funding; cumulative supported projects 108, with THB4.825bn in total funding; around 1,500 jobs expected and knowledge transfer to more than 3,800 supply-chain businesses.

Why it matters: The programme directly addresses a key weakness in Thailand’s investment model: large inflows into advanced industries have not yet translated sufficiently into productivity gains for Thai SMEs and suppliers. The IFC estimates only about 12% of Thai companies currently use AI and that the country lacks roughly 80,000 AI professionals, making domestic adoption and skills development increasingly urgent.

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How Niche Outdoor Hobbies Are Creating New Small Business Opportunities

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How Niche Outdoor Hobbies Are Creating New Small Business Opportunities

Activities such as metal detecting, camping, fishing, and cycling attract communities that actively seek products and information tailored to the way they enjoy their hobbies.

Unlike broad consumer markets, niche hobbies allow entrepreneurs to serve a clearly defined audience. A business does not necessarily need millions of customers when it can build trust with a smaller group of highly engaged enthusiasts who return regularly and recommend useful products to others.

Understanding the community is key to turning an interest into a viable business. From selling specialised equipment to creating educational content or organising experiences, several approaches can help entrepreneurs find opportunities within these markets.

Serving the Specialized Equipment Market

Specialised equipment is one of the most straightforward opportunities within a niche hobby. Enthusiasts often want products suited to particular conditions or experience levels, creating room for retailers that can provide knowledgeable recommendations rather than simply listing products.

Metal detecting is a good example. Businesses can cater to beginners looking for their first detector while also serving experienced hobbyists searching for more advanced technology. Retailers such as Serious Detecting offer dedicated selections of Garrett detectors, allowing customers to compare equipment designed for different detecting needs.

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Successful niche retailers can differentiate themselves by providing useful guidance alongside their products. Customers may value help choosing equipment just as much as the equipment itself, particularly when the hobby involves a significant initial investment.

Turning Expertise Into Services

Not every opportunity requires selling physical products. Entrepreneurs with genuine experience in a hobby can turn their knowledge into services that help other enthusiasts get more from their time outdoors.

Potential service models include:

  • Guided outdoor experiences
  • Equipment consultations
  • Skills workshops
  • Equipment rental
  • Private instruction

A guided experience can be particularly appealing to newcomers who want to try an activity without immediately purchasing everything they need. Experienced hobbyists can also build businesses around helping customers improve their skills or explore new locations.

Building Communities Around Shared Interests

Niche hobbies naturally create communities, both online and in person. Entrepreneurs can build businesses by becoming a useful hub for those communities rather than focusing exclusively on individual transactions.

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A cycling business, for example, might combine equipment sales with group rides and maintenance workshops. A fishing-focused company could offer local trips, educational content, and community events that keep customers engaged beyond the initial purchase.

Community involvement can also create valuable word-of-mouth marketing. When customers genuinely trust a business and feel connected to its community, they are more likely to return and recommend it to fellow enthusiasts.

Finding Underserved Needs

The strongest opportunities often come from noticing what an existing market does not provide. Entrepreneurs should pay attention to recurring questions, complaints, and requests within hobby communities because those conversations can reveal problems worth solving.

An opportunity might involve a specialised accessory, a more convenient service, better educational resources, or experiences designed for a particular audience. Businesses that solve a specific problem can establish a clearer identity than those trying to appeal to every outdoor enthusiast.

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Turning Passion Into a Sustainable Business

Personal enthusiasm can provide valuable insight, but passion alone does not guarantee a successful business. Entrepreneurs still need to understand pricing, customer acquisition, operating costs, competition, and whether enough people are willing to pay for the proposed product or service.

Starting small can make it easier to test an idea before committing significant resources. A focused product range, local service, online community, or limited event series can reveal whether an audience exists and what customers value most.

Ultimately, niche outdoor businesses succeed by combining genuine knowledge with a clear understanding of their customers. Entrepreneurs who listen to passionate communities, identify underserved needs, and consistently provide useful products or experiences can turn specialised hobbies into opportunities for sustainable small-business growth.

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BSE shares fall 3% as rival NSE gets closer to mega IPO. More pain ahead?

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BSE shares fall 3% as rival NSE gets closer to mega IPO. More pain ahead?
Shares of BSE tumbled more than 3% on Friday after rival stock exchange NSE announced the price band and key dates for its mega initial public offering (IPO), paving the way for its much-awaited market debut.

BSE shares dropped to Rs 3,193 apiece on Friday morning. Notably, NSE has reduced its offer size to 12.64 crore shares, according to the red herring prospectus (RHP) filed on Thursday.

NSE IPO size

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) now aims to raise Rs 22,662 crore through its mega IPO, missing the mark of becoming India’s largest IPO so far by overtaking Hyundai Motor India’s 2024 mega issue, which was valued at around Rs 27,870 crore. The stock exchange’s IPO will remain open for public bidding from September 17 to September 21, while the anchor book is scheduled to open on September 16.

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NSE shares are expected to debut on its older peer BSE on September 24.

Also read | NSE IPO GMP at 12% as stock exchange announces price band, key dates. 10 things to know


The company has fixed the price band for the IPO, which entirely comprises an offer for sale (OFS) of 12.64 crore shares by existing shareholders, at Rs 1,700-1,785 apiece. At the upper end of the price band, NSE IPO will be valued at Rs 22,561.57 crore, making it the second-largest IPO in Indian history, after Hyundai India’s market debut in 2024.
At this price, NSE will likely have a market capitalisation of around Rs 4.41 lakh crore. Since there is no fresh issue component in the mega IPO, none of the IPO proceeds will be received by the stock exchange as all will be directed towards the selling shareholders.

CAS impact

After trading in the red for much of the day, Sensex’s indicative price briefly jumped nearly 1,000 points to 75,708 during the closing auction session on its weekly expiry, while the Nifty 50 surged 330 points to 23,762 on Thursday. Most of the gains evaporated by the final close, with the Sensex ending 138 points higher at 74,903 and the Nifty gaining 46 points to settle at 23,478.

Sebi chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey on Thursday said the closing auction session (CAS) is “here to stay”, while acknowledging that liquidity could remain a concern in the initial stages of its implementation.

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Also read | CAS wild swing: Sensex soars 1,000 points on expiry day but ends only 138 points higher

What lies ahead for BSE share price?

Bernstein recently initiated coverage on BSE shares with an ‘Underperform’ rating and a target price of Rs 2,820 apiece, implying around 15% downside potential from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 3,306 apiece.

The international brokerage said the retail participation wave, led by equity derivatives, is showing signs of moderation, and BSE’s market share gains are likely to peak out in FY27, after which growth is expected to normalise. It added that exchanges have delivered handsome returns as the wave of retail participation has boosted earnings and valuations. However, given the speculative nature of this growth, Bernstein believes investors need to look beyond top-down factors and focus on a framework based on near-term volume trends, which will drive earnings revisions and valuations.

BSE shares have fallen around 6% in a week and 11% in a month, but overall gained 22% in 2026 so far. In the longer term, the shares of the stock exchange delivered strong returns of 48% over one year, 602% over three years and 2,274% in five years.

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This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

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Bernstein names Paytm stock as its top pick, lists 3 strong growth drivers for fintech giant

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Bernstein names Paytm stock as its top pick, lists 3 strong growth drivers for fintech giant
Shares of One 97 Communications, the parent company of fintech major Paytm, rallied as much as 4% to Rs 1,804 after international brokerage Bernstein named the stock its top pick, citing robust merchant lending growth, operating leverage and the potential introduction of MDR on UPI as key drivers of earnings growth.

With a target price of Rs 2,200, the brokerage forecasts an upside potential of up to 26% from current market levels. Bernstein expects Paytm’s EPS to reach Rs 78 by FY29. Even after excluding any potential impact from MDR on UPI, its FY29E EPS estimate stands at Rs 54, still above the Rs 46 consensus estimate.

Why are Bernstein analysts bullish on Paytm shares?

1.) Merchant loans are a key driver: Bernstein expects Paytm’s financial services revenue to grow at around 27% CAGR between FY26E and FY30E, driven primarily by its merchant loan distribution business. The brokerage expects merchant loans to remain the key contributor, accounting for around 75% of financial services revenue.

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Bernstein sees Paytm having a clear competitive advantage and a long runway for growth, even if the company only achieves modest increases in loan penetration among its merchant base.

2.) Strong operating leverage: Analysts expect meaningful operating leverage from Paytm’s existing businesses, with indirect expenses projected to grow only around 8% as key cost drivers peak. Technology costs are expected to remain stable, while slower device additions should keep sales and merchant acquisition costs under control.


Any incremental spending is likely to be directed towards new initiatives that can generate additional revenue.
3.) MDR to boost profitability – Bernstein expects MDR on UPI to provide a meaningful boost to Paytm’s profitability. The brokerage points out that payment activity is highly concentrated, with around 4% of transactions accounting for 70% of transaction value, while the top 5% of merchants contribute the bulk of payment value.Given this concentration, Bernstein remains positive on the potential earnings upside for Paytm, regardless of how the eventual MDR framework is structured.

Bernstein lists downside risks for Paytm stock

MDR on UPI is not introduced: The estimates assume the introduction of MDR on UPI transactions, which accounts for 30% of our EBITDA forecasts. Consequently, any decision by the government or regulator to retain the zero-MDR framework, whether due to merchant resistance, policy considerations, or concerns around digital payment adoption, would represent a material downside risk to earnings estimates.

While Paytm’s core payments, merchant subscriptions and lending businesses would remain intact, the absence of MDR would eliminate a significant earnings driver that’s baked into the base case, it said.

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Slowdown in device additions: The forecasts assume device additions will gradually moderate from the current >20% growth rate. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in merchant acquisition could weigh on subscription revenue, merchant loans and payment monetisation, given the central role of Paytm’s device network in driving growth across its ecosystem.

Paytm shares have had a stellar 2026 despite overall weakness, as the stock has rallied over 70% in the last six months.

Disclaimer: The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment.

Brokerage disclaimers here

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Cigar plain packaging: importers seek hand-rolled exemption

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Cigar plain packaging: importers seek hand-rolled exemption

Hunters & Frankau, which has imported Cuban cigars into the UK for more than 230 years, says it would have to cut its portfolio by 75 per cent if it is required to supply cigars in plain packaging under the Tobacco and Vapes Act. Importers want hand-rolled cigars exempted, and a government consultation on the packaging rules closes on 2 October.

The Act received Royal Assent in April, with provisions taking effect between now and 2029. Its central measure, a ban on selling tobacco to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009, follows a plan announced by Rishi Sunak in 2023.

The government has refused to exempt handmade cigars from plain packaging in the legislation. Baroness Merron, a health minister, told the House of Lords: “It is absolutely not this government’s intention for any future packaging requirements to put any small businesses, including specialist tobacconists, out of business.”

“Seventy per cent of the cigar market in the UK is Cuban,” said Jemma Freeman, chairman of Hunters & Frankau, which supports hundreds of small businesses across the UK and Gibraltar.

She said: “If Hunters & Frankau are in a position where we have to provide plain packaging, we believe we will have to reduce our portfolio by 75 per cent. If that happens, the specialist tobacconists can’t survive, the numbers don’t work.”

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Each box of Cuban cigars already carries a government-issued sticker, added in Havana under strict security conditions, bearing a hologram, bar code and date stamp that establish its value and provenance.

Freeman said top-tier suppliers such as Habanos would take a dim view of plans to wrap cigars individually and in plain paper, asking: “If they are taken out of their packaging, which is part and parcel of their presentation and their intrinsic value, and if the importing nation cannot maintain the integrity of the unit, why would they send it to the market?”

Exporting countries raise concerns

Ambassadors to the UK from Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Honduras wrote to Sir Keir Starmer in October 2025 setting out how the legislation would damage their export economies, and the Department of Health and Social Care responded with the case for the changes.

The ambassadors are understood to have written back in February, questioning the lack of “product-specific analysis that treats handmade cigars as a distinct category separate from mass-market tobacco products” and emphasising that “handmade cigars account for significantly less than 1 per cent of UK tobacco consumption”.

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Andrew Griffith, the shadow chancellor, said the government was “ignoring all the evidence, trampling over respected WTO [World Trade Organisation] rules and failing to respond to the ambassadors of cigar exporting countries”.

Eddie Sahakian, who is taking over Davidoff of London from his father, Edward, sees the legislation as the end game for the shop.

ASH says cigars should not be exempt

Helen Duffy, a representative of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH), said on LBC that young people have started smoking with cigarillos and that cigars therefore cannot have an exemption.

According to IRI, a market research agency, only 2.5 million of the 400 million cigars sold in the UK in 2024 are estimated to have been hand-rolled, with the rest machine-made cigarillos such as King Edwards.

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Hazel Cheeseman, chief executive of ASH, said that “regardless of how they are made, or where they are from, cigars are tobacco products and are harmful to health”.

She added: “The government is right to consider communicating that fact through standardised packaging. When the government exempted cigars from previous legislation, the tobacco industry exploited the loophole to market cigarillos to younger consumers and consumption increased. Cigar shops have already adapted to standard pack laws in Canada, New Zealand and Ireland so there is no reason why the same cannot happen in the UK.”

Importers say none of those countries consumes large volumes of cigars, and argue that giving wealthy people another reason not to spend money in London would be self-sabotage.

The government’s consultation on tobacco and vape packaging proposes extending standardised packaging and picture warnings to all cigars and cigarillos. Individually wrapped cigars do not currently need picture warnings, the consultation states. It closes at 11:59pm on 2 October.

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Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie Young is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, covering SME finance, employment law and Westminster policy since 2016. He has reported on every Budget and Autumn Statement since 2018, helped make sense of the ‘covid era’ and the bounce-back loan scheme from launch through the fraud investigations, and broke the magazine’s coverage of the 2024 late-payment reforms. He joined Business Matters straight from completing his BA in Administration from Exeter University and is NCTJ-qualified. Reach him at jyoung@cbmeg.co.uk

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