Crypto World
BIS Paper Flags Large Mismatch in Bitcoin On-Chain Transfer Data
New research from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) suggests many of the headline metrics used to describe crypto activity—especially onchain “transfer” values—can be misleading depending on how the underlying blockchain data is counted. The BIS team reports that estimates of Bitcoin transfer values can differ by as much as six times when measurement methods change, driven largely by how transaction outputs are interpreted.
The study also highlights broader problems across the crypto ecosystem, extending beyond Bitcoin to Ethereum and stablecoins. BIS researchers warn that onchain indicators should often be treated as “noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity,” rather than precision readouts of real-world flows.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin onchain transfer values can swing by up to 6x based on how outputs—such as change back to the sender—are counted.
- Common market-cap style measures may overstate realized value; BIS finds conventional capitalization has at times been up to 4x higher.
- Ethereum’s smart-contract environment complicates classification, with tens of millions of active contracts that BIS could not categorize using the study’s framework.
- Stablecoin activity varies by chain and purpose, so aggregating across networks can blur how USDT is actually used.
- Some analytics providers already adjust raw volumes to remove distortions tied to behaviors like internal exchange routing or bot-driven activity.
Why “transfer value” can mean very different things
In the BIS working paper, the researchers focus on a measurement gap: when analysts try to estimate how much Bitcoin is being transferred onchain, the result depends heavily on the rules used to parse transactions. BIS’s key point is not that onchain data is absent, but that the same data can produce drastically different “economic activity” estimates.
The sixfold discrepancy reported by BIS is tied to differences in transaction measurement methods. One major driver is Bitcoin’s transaction structure. When a user spends Bitcoin, the transaction often includes unspent funds returned to the sender as a “change” output. Depending on the methodology, that change can be counted as an additional output—despite not representing value sent to another party.
BIS argues that this kind of counting convention can create the appearance of greater transfers than what actually reflects third-party movement. The researchers underline that metrics frequently presented as straightforward—such as transaction volumes, market capitalization, and total value locked—may carry more certainty than the structure of the underlying data actually supports.
Bitcoin market capitalization: a similar measurement mismatch
The BIS paper extends the measurement theme beyond transfer values to capitalization. The researchers report that a conventional market-cap approach has, at times, been as much as four times higher than realized capitalization.
According to BIS, realized capitalization values each coin at the price at the time it last moved. That distinction matters because it ties the valuation method to activity timestamps, rather than assuming a single uniform pricing snapshot. The implication for investors and market observers is that onchain-linked metrics can diverge from how value is actually being reflected in usage—especially when measurement assumptions are treated as neutral.
Cross-chain complications: Ethereum classification and stablecoin aggregation
While Bitcoin’s transaction design creates ambiguity around change outputs, Ethereum presents a different kind of complexity: smart contracts. BIS examined roughly 67.5 million active contracts and found that about 54 million could not be categorized using the classifications used in the study.
This matters because any attempt to interpret stablecoin flows or onchain transfers often depends on understanding whether activity belongs to known contract patterns—such as decentralized finance interactions, custody, payment services, or other use cases. When classification fails at scale, the risk increases that analytics will treat diverse behaviors as if they were homogeneous.
Stablecoins add another layer. The BIS researchers note that the same asset can serve different functions across networks. In their observations, USDT on Ethereum was more closely tied to DeFi activity, while USDT on Tron showed stronger association with payment-like and store-of-value purposes. BIS further highlights that the split is visible in smart contract holdings: in 2022, the share of USDT held by smart contracts on Ethereum exceeded 20%, compared with around 1% on Tron.
The practical takeaway is that aggregating stablecoin activity across chains can conflate distinct economic behaviors. BIS frames the resulting indicators as approximations that may obscure how stablecoins are being used in practice.
Overall, BIS’s conclusion is that onchain indicators should be approached as noisy estimates rather than direct measurements of economic activity—particularly when the indicators are presented as if they map cleanly to real-world transfers.
Adjusted analytics: how some dashboards try to correct distortions
Not all analytics treat raw blockchain activity as a final truth. Some providers attempt to separate “raw” transaction counts from adjusted volumes designed to better represent underlying economic activity.
Visa’s Onchain Analytics dashboard—powered by data from Allium Labs—shows both total and adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes. The dashboard’s adjusted methodology is intended to remove distortions from activity that may not reflect broad economic transfer, including high-frequency trading, bots, bridge routing, and internal exchange operations.
On the dashboard, Visa reports $6.4 trillion in total stablecoin transaction volume across the networks it tracks over the past 30 days, versus $313.1 billion in adjusted volume. The size of that gap illustrates the central theme of the BIS study: depending on counting rules and filtering approaches, “activity” can look dramatically larger or smaller.
Importantly, this does not automatically validate any specific methodology as “correct.” Instead, it reinforces BIS’s broader warning: without careful definitions and adjustments, common onchain metrics can overstate what the data actually means for economic interpretation.
For readers tracking crypto adoption using onchain indicators, the key next step is to pay closer attention to methodology—especially whether metrics account for change outputs, smart-contract classification limits, chain-specific usage patterns, and filtering for bot-driven or internal operations. BIS’s findings suggest that as dashboards and analytics products mature, the real differentiator will be how transparently they define what they measure and how their measurement choices shape the numbers.
Crypto World
US seizes $61M of Iranian crypto profits allegedly laundered through Binance
The US is seizing $61 million worth of cryptocurrency linked to a scheme that allegedly laundered funds through Binance to facilitate the black-market sale of Iranian oil.
A civil forfeiture complaint filed yesterday claims that the selling of Iranian crude oil has generated over $1.5 billion in illicit crypto proceeds and helps the country fund its nuclear program and military.
As such, the US wants to deprive Iran of these profits and weaken its power.
Two Chinese companies, Blessed Trust and Hexa Whale, were allegedly central to transferring and managing the funds in question.
They apparently used Binance to launder the proceeds and distribute them to Iran’s government and other linked proxies.
The civil forfeiture complaint doesn’t target Binance with any alleged wrongdoing.
Binance wasn’t happy with reporting on links to Iran
The alleged links between Iran and the two Chinese companies were revealed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Fortune, and the New York Times in February this year.
In May, the WSJ reported that Iran-linked funds were continuing to move through Binance in 2026.
Read more: US sanctions firms behind Iran’s Strait of Hormuz BTC insurance scheme
The report also highlighted a major Iranian financier who used Binance to move $850 million worth of transactions in 2024 and 2025.
Binance has repeatedly called these reports inaccurate. It filed a lawsuit against the WSJ in the same month that the Department of Justice launched a probe into the transfers on the exchange.
These reports have led to US senators questioning whether Binance has lied before Congress, and whether it’s avoiding money laundering recommendations.
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Crypto World
A $7.8 million crypto heist was just hijacked by a bot named Yoink
An attacker exploited a Gnosis Safe wallet on Ethereum, removing about 2,900 rsETH, worth roughly $7.8 million, on Tuesday.
An automated bot known as “yoink” front-ran the attack transaction and extracted the tokens, security firms BlockSec, Blockaid and SlowMist said.
The victim’s wallet was set up to let a helper contract move money for it, an ordinary arrangement for people who automate their trading. The helper was meant to verify that the caller had permission, but SlowMist and BlockSec found the check approved anyone who named the helper itself as the target.
The attacker then dumped around 2,900 rsETH into a trading pool built minutes earlier around a worthless token called Permissionless Attacker Token, leaving the wallet with a receipt worth nothing. Yoink’s bot paid roughly $47,000 to jump the queue and took the tokens, sending 2,882 rsETH to a separate address.
Crypto World
USDT Payments Feature in Polish Energy Giant’s Failed $230M Oil Deal
The world’s largest stablecoin by market cap, Tether’s USDt, was reportedly used in a failed Venezuelan oil trade that cost Poland’s largest energy giant $230 million in late 2023, according to the Financial Times.
That was after the Caracas-based state oil company, PDVSA, began demanding partial payments in USDT as a workaround to US financial sanctions.
The $230 million was an advance payment paid largely in Tether USDt (USDT) in an oil trade orchestrated by Samer Awad, a former executive at Orlen Trading Switzerland (OTS), a trading subsidiary of Poland’s state-controlled energy giant, Orlen, to acquire 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil in November 2023 from state-owned PDVSA, the news outlet reported on Tuesday.
Orlen sent the $230 million advance payment to Hannon International Middle East, the Dubai-based seller, on Dec. 4, 2023. Hannon approached various crypto brokers and intermediaries to obtain the USDT necessary to buy the crude oil, but most funds disappeared into a maze of crypto transfers, while Orlen only received about $29 million worth of oil before eventually terminating the contract.
Cointelegraph has approached Tether and Orlen for comment on the matter.
“Hannon became involved in the transaction at Orlen’s request” and was not responsible for the “transaction’s failure,” David McCoy, managing partner at ADG Legal Abu Dhabi, the legal representative of Hannon, told Cointelegraph.
“Hannon has since taken significant steps, at its own expense, to recover the funds paid in connection with the transaction and remains open to a constructive dialogue with Orlen about resolving this matter amicably.”

Payment flows that led to the $230 million loss. Source: Financial Times
Tracing missing $230 million through crypto intermediaries
After Orlen wired the $230 million in December 2023, Hannon reportedly obtained $80 million USDT, paying a $400,000 commission, from a Dubai-based financial services company he previously dealt with.
Hannon later sent Dubai-based Horizon Global $135 million, but claimed it only received $85 million in USDT, leaving a $50 million shortfall. Horizon has contested these claims.
Hannon also said it sent Dubai-incorporated Gold Mar International Trading $30 million, expecting a USDT conversion and onward payment for the oil to PDVSA. Hannon said it later recovered $21 million of the USDT from Gold Mar in February 2024.
In January 2024, Hannon employees reportedly gave a Caracas broker two USB sticks, containing $60 million and $50 million USDT, respectively. The next month, it gave access to $11 million in USDT to another Caracas broker.
Related: Fragmented regulations limit stablecoin adoption in international finance: WTO head
On March 8, Orlen’s ship was finally loaded with about 500,000 barrels of fuel oil, worth only about $28.8 million. The same day, another $11 million in USDT was allegedly handed to the broker. Orlen Trading Services finally terminated the contract with Hannon on March 28, 2024, after only receiving a fraction of the crude oil.
In January 2025, the Warsaw Regional Prosecutor’s Office announced an investigation into the oil contracts related to Orlen Trading Services, for damages of 1.5 billion Polish zloty ($378 million).
McCoy told Cointelegraph that Hannon “is not involved in the investigation in Poland and therefore cannot comment on it.”
In August 2026, three former managers at Orlen and Orlen Trading Services were reportedly indicted over crude oil contracts that caused $378 million in damages, according to Reuters. The managers, identified under Polish privacy laws by last initial, have all denied wrongdoing. The trio, Michal R., a former member of Orlen’s management board, Marcin O., a former member of OTS’ board, and Filip W, a former executive at Orlen and OTS, face up to 25 years in prison.
Magazine: Inside the ‘fake police raid’ that forced a $1M Bitcoin transfer
Crypto World
Bitcoin slips as Clarity Act odds fade: Crypto Markets Today
A rally that carried bitcoin to $79,427 on Monday unwound on Tuesday, leaving the largest cryptocurrency at $76,862, down 1.7% since midnight UTC and 6.6% below the month’s $82,284 high set on Sept. 4. Ether fell 1.6% to $2,474.76 and solana (SOL) lost 2% at $100.43.
Polymarket odds on the U.S. Clarity Act being signed into law this year followed a similar trajectory, reaching 34% on Monday before sliding back to 17%. The drop was caused by news that Democrats had crafted a counterproposal after rejecting a revised draft Republican negotiators circulated on Sunday. The sticking point is the ethics language governing officials’ crypto holdings rather than the market structure provisions themselves.
The Senate votes at 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to invoke cloture, or force a vote, on the bill. If the bill passes, that would move the industry closer to its first clear set of U.S. rules on who regulates what. A failure would likely shelve market structure legislation until after the midterm elections in November.
Selling pressure was near universal on Tuesday, with 92 of the CoinDesk 100 constituents lower on the day and the index itself down 1.6%.
Crypto World
Mark Zuckerberg Meta AI Predicts an Explosive End to 2026 for Bitcoin
This week in Washington and one day of ETF flows explain why the calendar suddenly matters. Meta AI predicts the next three months will be unusually consequential, and it projects Bitcoin to range from $78,000 to $92,000 by the end of 2026, with $85,000 as the base case.
Today (September 15) is the first trigger. The Senate is expected to test whether the Clarity Act can clear the 60-vote threshold. The passage would remove a major U.S. policy overhang. That alone changes the risk calculus for allocators who have stayed on the sidelines.

ARMA is the bigger Bitcoin-specific catalyst. The House proposal would authorize Treasury purchases of up to 1 million BTC over five years.
It also requires a 20-year federal hold on those coins. Buying at that scale with a two-decade lockup would remove supply permanently, not temporarily.
Flows are already turning. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $159.9M to start the week on September 14, a strong start as we move through the month.
The bear case paints a different picture. Renewed ETF outflows are the first pressure point.
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Meta AI Predicts the Bitcoin Price: Three Months, Two Bills, And One Very Large Buyer
The weekly chart shows a cycle that has already peaked. Bitcoin topped near $126,000 in mid-2025 and has trended lower since.
Late 2025 broke the structure, taking the price from $120,000 toward $84,000. Early 2026 delivered the deepest leg down near $58,000.
Spring produced a recovery attempt to roughly $82,000. That failed by June, and the price returned to the low $60Ks.
Recent weeks have built a shallow base. Higher lows are forming, though without any strong upward push behind them.
The weekly close reads $63,078, down 2.74% and $1,780. The weekly range covered $62,470 to $65,333.
Support sits at $72,000, then $68,000 and $66,000, as the zone Meta AI flags. Resistance appears at $80,000, then $82,000 and $87,000.
RSI reads 39.06 with its signal line just above at 39.32. The two lines have converged almost exactly, separated by roughly a quarter point.
That reading sits well below the midline and is near oversold. Momentum is weak, though the flattening suggests the decline is losing force.
Meta AI predicts that the base case sits +35% above this level. September 15 is the first date that will tell you whether the market starts pricing it in.
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The platform lets users trade on real-world outcomes across politics, economic data, Fed decisions, crypto, and other market-moving events. That matters when the Bitcoin thesis is increasingly tied to specific dates rather than vague expectations.
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Crypto World
Is the President Blocking America’s Last Chance to Control Superintelligence?
In Trump AI news, the US President has argued for faster AI development with fewer guardrails, while several people involved in developing advanced systems have called for stronger safeguards. The contrast was visible in recent comments from the president, who described fears about AI safety as a hoax.
Trump made the remarks in social media posts reported by the BBC. They followed comments from Jack Clark, an Anthropic co-founder, who said a shutdown mechanism for dangerous AI that a third party can check may eventually need to become mandatory across the industry.
Trump AI News: President Compares AI Safety to Climate Change Warnings
Trump’s comments arrived amid warnings from executives and staff at leading AI firms about potential risks from the technology. The BBC reported that those concerns contributed to a selloff in shares of some technology companies, as investors weighed the possible effect of slower AI development.
In his posts, Trump compared the AI safety debate with his criticism of climate-change warnings and presented himself as a challenger of what he describes as hoaxes.
He also argued that AI needs a strong and smart president rather than additional guardrails. That is a political argument about how the United States should approach AI development, rather than evidence of a new binding policy.
Microsoft AI took a different approach on the same day by publishing an outline document for what it calls humanist AI. Its chief executive, Mustafa Suleyman, told CNBC the company had developed the guidance for months and published it amid the current debate over the technology. The move put another major company in a discussion about how advanced models should be developed and limited.
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Trump AI Debate: Voluntary Guardrails, Not a Binding Regime
The evolving AI safety landscape is marked by varied company practices and calls for regulation rather than a unified enforcement framework.
Clark emphasized the need for an independent shutdown mechanism for dangerous AI systems, suggesting lawmakers may need to mandate such measures.
Dario Amodei of Anthropic advocates for slower AI development and monitoring while ensuring firms retain their competitive edge. Sam Altman of OpenAI and Elon Musk of xAI support similar industry-wide deceleration and independent oversight.
However, despite agreement on principles, no shared enforcement system exists. OpenAI’s safety practices highlight the difference between internal frameworks and external regulation, as they will not release models exceeding the Medium risk threshold without sufficient interventions.
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What Would an AI Kill Switch Actually Require?
Clark’s proposal is more specific than a general call to turn off a system when concerns arise. He described a way of shutting off AI software completely if it becomes too dangerous, with the possibility of third-party checking. The independent element matters because an internal shutdown capability remains under the control of the company operating the model.
The reporting does not set out the technical design of existing shutdown mechanisms at individual labs, how they would be independently verified, or how a common requirement would be implemented. Clark’s view that lawmakers may need to enforce such a capability underscores that the evidence provides no industry-wide mandatory standard.
Independent monitoring is similarly a proposal rather than a single operating system shared across the industry. Lab leaders have endorsed the concept, but the available reporting does not identify one common mechanism that all frontier developers have adopted.
US Vs. China AI Wars: The Political Choice Now Facing AI Policy
Trump views AI as a competition in which rapid advancement is key to national advantage. In contrast, Chinese state media argue that U.S. concerns over China’s AI progress might skew its policy priorities. Experts like Xin Qiang of Fudan University suggest that U.S. officials fear that slowing down could allow China to catch up.
This situation highlights the tension surrounding voluntary limits on AI development. While stakeholders may agree on the need for safeguards, there’s concern that such constraints could benefit competitors that don’t adhere to the same regulations.
Current evidence points to a clash of incentives rather than a clear consensus. Trump has dismissed the need for stricter regulations, and while some leaders propose measures to slow development and increase monitoring, these remain voluntary and unverified.
The main policy question is whether voluntary measures will become enforceable rules, especially since safety measures could affect commercial interests and development speed.
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Crypto World
XRP Ledger Batch V1.1 Nears Activation After Security Rebuild
The XRP Ledger’s Batch V1.1 amendment is one validator vote short of reaching the 80% threshold needed to begin its 14-day activation countdown, after a security rebuild that followed a critical flaw in the original version.
The revised code has gone through senior engineering review, adversarial testing, two external security reviews, and AI-assisted analysis before its current validator vote.
Batch V1.1 Reaches Final Vote Before Activation Countdown
RippleX developer Mayukha Vadari said the amendment shipped with xrpld 3.3.0 and is now up for voting. The update replaces Batch V1.0, whose signature-validation bug was found in February while the amendment was still pre-mainnet, meaning no funds were at risk.
The original flaw involved an early return in the checkBatchSign function. If a signer account did not yet exist on the ledger, validation could return success without checking the remaining signers. That could have allowed transactions to be executed on behalf of other accounts without their private keys.
Batch V1.1 removed that flaw and also addressed several other issues found during the rebuild. The process included review by four senior engineers, a Sherlock Batch Attackathon, a Halborn reassessment, a Common Prefix audit, Cantina AI scanning, and Devnet and testnet regression testing.
Vadari also said the team fixed additional bugs found through its newer AI red-teaming work. The changes include fixes for MPT validation bypasses, node crashes, path size validation, signature verification, signer ordering, and transaction hashing.
Validator sentiment is close to the required threshold, with one account, FrancisBovineSwift, describing the Batch voting as “nearly there,” with the most recent snapshot showing 27 trusted validators have voted for the amendment and eight against it, putting support at roughly 77% against the 80% threshold required to sign off on changes, with just one more vote needed to hit that mark.
Why the Batch Amendment Matters to XRPL Developers
Batch, also known as XLS-56, allows multiple transactions from different accounts to execute atomically in a single ledger close. If one transaction in an all-or-nothing batch fails, the entire operation reverts. The design does not require smart contracts.
The feature is intended for atomic swaps, coordinated settlements, and other transactions where multiple parties need to act together. It could also reduce the number of steps needed for NFT minting and transfers.
The security rebuild follows other recent XRPL scrutiny, after the network pulled its Permission Delegation amendment when a high-severity bug was found before mainnet deployment, with V1.1 undergoing additional review.
Furthermore, an XRPL testing dashboard launched this month has also made amendment testing more visible by tracking which transaction types, fields, and result codes have been exercised on Devnet.
The post XRP Ledger Batch V1.1 Nears Activation After Security Rebuild appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
There were many conductors in the derailment of the crypto industry’s Clarity Act
When the legislative talks picked up pace again, it was already late in the congressional session, with lobbyists and lawmakers well aware that the election was looming that would make it harder to secure bipartisan legislative work. All along, the ethics question stood as the center of debate and the aspect that needed to be ironed out if the rest were to proceed.
In that process, President Trump agreed to concessions twice, including a second batch of changes over the weekend. But judging from the sentiments from Gallego, one of the chief Democratic negotiators on this point, it wasn’t nearly enough.
“All President Trump wants is for the Senate to give him time to crime, and I won’t support any piece of legislation that enables him,” the Arizona senator said.
During the negotiations, Gallego and other Democrats had to turn their backs on Senator Elizabeth Warren, the senior Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, who favored strong opposition to Clarity. She kept up that view, continually underlining the crypto ties between Trump and the crypto industry from which he earned more than a billion dollars during the first year of his second term.
“I believe we can get crypto legislation that both Republicans and Democrats can agree on. But not this bill,” she said on the Senate floor on Tuesday. “This bill will turbocharge Donald Trump’s unprecedented corruption.”
Crypto World
BIS Study Finds Major Discrepancies in Bitcoin Onchain Metrics
Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements found that estimates of Bitcoin onchain transfer values can vary by as much as sixfold depending on how transactions are measured.
The finding concerns onchain Bitcoin transfer values, rather than trading volume on crypto exchanges. The sixfold gap reflects differences between measurement methods, including how change outputs and other transfers back to the sender are treated.
The discrepancy stems largely from Bitcoin’s transaction structure. When users spend Bitcoin, unspent funds are often returned to the sender as change, which can be counted as another output even though it does not represent funds being transferred to another party.

Breakdown of blockchain records analyzed in the BIS study. Source: BIS
“Metrics such as transaction volumes, market capitalisation and total value locked often suggest a degree of accuracy that is not supported by the nature of the underlying data,” the researchers wrote.
The measurement problem also extends to Bitcoin’s market capitalization. The researchers found that the conventional measure has at times been as much as four times higher than realized capitalization, which values each coin at the price when it last moved.
The study, based on 100 billion blockchain records across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron, found that similar measurement challenges extend across the broader crypto ecosystem.
Related: Stablecoins not credible for payments at scale, BIS chief says
Ethereum and stablecoins present additional challenges
Ethereum presented a separate measurement challenge because of the proliferation of smart contracts. Of roughly 67.5 million active contracts examined, about 54 million could not be categorized using the classifications in the study.
Interpreting stablecoin activity presents another challenge, as the same asset can serve different purposes across blockchains. USDT on Ethereum was more closely linked to DeFi activity, while USDT on Tron was associated more with payment-like and store-of-value purposes.
The differences were particularly stark in smart contract holdings. The share of USDT held by smart contracts on Ethereum exceeded 20% in 2022, compared with around 1% on Tron. Because of the different use cases, the researchers said aggregating USDT activity across blockchains can conflate different types of economic activity and obscure how stablecoins are actually being used.
The BIS researchers concluded that onchain indicators should be treated as “noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity.”
Visa filters stablecoin data to reflect economic activity
Some analytics providers already distinguish between raw blockchain activity and adjusted measures intended to better represent economic activity.
Visa’s Onchain Analytics dashboard, powered by data from Allium Labs, displays both total and adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes. Visa says its adjusted methodology aims to remove potential distortions from activity including high-frequency trading, bots, bridge routing and internal exchange operations.
The dashboard currently shows $6.4 trillion in total stablecoin transaction volume across the networks it tracks over the past 30 days, compared with $313.1 billion in adjusted volume.

Stablecoin transaction volumes. Source: Visa Onchain Analytics
Crypto World
Stablecoins could boost US dollar and Treasury demand: BoE
Dollar stablecoins have grown to about $300 billion in circulation, prompting a Bank of England policymaker to warn that their expansion could increase demand for US Treasurys while creating new risks during periods of heavy redemptions.
Summary
- Dollar-linked tokens account for about 98% of the global stablecoin market.
- USDT and USDC held nearly $150 billion in Treasury bills at the end of 2025.
- The two issuers bought about $33 billion in Treasury bills during the year.
- Large redemptions could force reserve sales and add pressure to stressed Treasury markets.
Stablecoins could extend the dollar into new markets
The Bank of England said in a Sep. 15 speech that stablecoins could reinforce the US dollar’s international role by making dollar-linked assets and settlement systems easier to access outside the United States.
Carolyn Wilkins, an external member of the central bank’s Financial Policy Committee, told an audience at Queen’s University Belfast that dollar stablecoins already have a “considerable first-mover advantage.” About 98% of stablecoin value is denominated in dollars, according to figures cited in her speech.
Stablecoins in circulation reached roughly $300 billion by mid-2026, compared with less than $5 billion at the beginning of 2020. Although most activity still involves crypto trading, lending, collateral, and market liquidity, Wilkins said the tokens could move deeper into payments and international finance.
Cross-border settlement forms one channel for that expansion. Stablecoin transfers can operate around the clock and move between countries without passing through every institution in a traditional correspondent banking network.
Research cited by Wilkins found that such systems could lower costs in payment corridors where banking services remain slow or expensive. Sending a $200 remittance cost an average of 6.4% worldwide in 2024, while the average charge in Sub-Saharan Africa reached about 8.5%.
Dollar stablecoins can also give people in countries with unstable currencies access to a dollar-linked asset through a mobile phone, without requiring a US bank account. Wilkins said such use could extend dollarization into digital markets, although thin liquidity still limits some payment corridors.
Other currencies have yet to build comparable scale. Circle’s euro-backed token passed €400 million in circulation in August, while the entire euro stablecoin market stood at about €650 million in June, according to a previous EURC supply report. Dollar tokens remain far ahead despite efforts to build alternatives tied to the euro and pound.
Stablecoin reserves add demand for US Treasurys
Issuers generally invest the money received from token buyers in liquid reserve assets, including cash, short-term government debt and Treasury-backed repurchase agreements. Growth in stablecoin supply can therefore send additional funds into the market for US government securities.
USDT issuer Tether and USDC issuer Circle held almost $150 billion in Treasury bills at the end of 2025, according to Bank for International Settlements research cited by Wilkins. Their net purchases reached about $33 billion during the year.
Although the combined position remains small compared with the full Treasury market, Wilkins described the largest stablecoin issuers as meaningful participants in short-term US government debt. Research referenced in her speech found that stablecoin inflows can place modest downward pressure on short-term Treasury yields as issuers buy more safe assets.
The net effect depends on where users obtained the money placed into stablecoins. Moving capital from a Treasury money market fund into a token whose issuer buys the same bills may add little new demand. Funds transferred from another currency or asset class would have a stronger effect, while withdrawals from bank deposits could affect lenders’ funding costs and capacity to provide credit.
Tether’s own accounts show how closely issuer earnings have become linked to US debt. The company generated about $1.5 billion in operating profit during the second quarter of 2026, supported by returns from its Treasury and repo holdings, crypto.news reported in July.
Circle also earns much of its income from the assets backing USDC. Average USDC circulation doubled from $38.1 billion to $76.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, while its reserve portfolio returned 3.8%, according to the company’s results covered in a February earnings report.
Redemptions could reverse Treasury buying
The same reserve structure that sends money into Treasury bills during stablecoin growth can create selling pressure when users redeem tokens.
Stablecoins are claims that holders expect to exchange for cash at face value. Since tokens trade continuously, issuers may have to raise cash quickly when redemptions accelerate, even outside conventional market hours.
Wilkins warned that several large issuers selling Treasury bills at the same time could worsen changes in yields and liquidity if the government-debt market were already under strain. Pressure would not have to begin inside the stablecoin industry, as concerns about US inflation, public debt or institutional credibility could weaken demand for dollar assets before token redemptions add to the selling.
The stablecoin sector is not yet large enough to pose a major threat to the Treasury market or create a material financial-stability risk in the UK, according to Wilkins. A large depegging event could still damage confidence in regulated tokens.
USDC provided an earlier example of how reserve concerns can reach a stablecoin. Circle held about $3.3 billion at Silicon Valley Bank when the lender failed in March 2023, causing USDC to lose its dollar peg as redemptions rose. The token was recovered after US authorities guaranteed the bank’s deposits.
Wilkins compared the possible Treasury feedback loop with the UK liability-driven investment crisis in 2022, when forced gilt sales added to falling bond prices and prompted intervention by the Bank of England.
US rules deepen the stablecoin-Treasury link
The GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, created a federal framework for US payment stablecoins and requires issuers to hold at least one dollar of eligible reserves for each dollar of tokens outstanding.
Permitted assets include cash, insured deposits, short-dated Treasury bills, Treasury-backed repo agreements and qualifying money market funds. The law also establishes disclosure requirements and gives stablecoin holders priority in an issuer’s insolvency.
Implementation remains unfinished. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency expects to finalize its stablecoin rules by November 2026, which could push their effective date to around March 2027, according to an August implementation update. Issuers worth more than $50 billion must undergo annual audits, while all regulated issuers will have to report weekly to their main regulator and publish monthly disclosures.
Wilkins said reserve rules address whether issuers have enough assets but do not fully answer how quickly those assets can be converted into cash during a run. Even Treasurys faced severe liquidity pressure during the March 2020 dash for cash, when the Federal Reserve intervened in the market.
A limited Federal Reserve account proposed for eligible payment firms could improve routine settlement, according to the speech. The account would not provide access to Fed borrowing, leaving stablecoin issuers without a prearranged source of emergency liquidity during a redemption crisis.
UK stablecoin rules place more weight on liquidity
The Bank of England’s framework for systemic sterling stablecoins applies stricter reserve and liquidity requirements than the US regime, although Wilkins noted that the two systems cover different groups of issuers.
The UK framework applies once a sterling stablecoin is classified as systemic, while the GENIUS Act governs US payment stablecoins more generally. Britain’s model includes payment-system access, liquidity contingency plans and procedures for issuer failure, with conditional access to central bank liquidity also possible.
For cross-border issuers, the Bank of England would require a UK legal entity and place key safeguarding arrangements inside the country. Its final framework for systemic sterling stablecoins is scheduled for completion at the end of 2026.
Separately, the Financial Conduct Authority finalized its rules for UK stablecoin issuance in June after reducing some proposed capital requirements. The regulator has also allowed prospective issuers to test their products through a dedicated sandbox, while the Bank of England continues experiments involving stablecoins and a simulated digital pound.
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