Eighty-five per cent of senior leaders in the UK financial services sector say their roles have become more complex over the past five years, yet a quarter have not received suitable training to do their job well, according to research from Alliance Manchester Business School (AMBS).

The business school commissioned Censuswide to survey 500 managers, directors and C-suite executives in UK businesses. Of those, 59 worked in financial services.

Across all 500 respondents, 73 per cent said their roles had become increasingly complicated over the past five years. Among those in financial services, the figure was 85 per cent.

What is driving the change

Financial services leaders were asked which factors had made their roles more complex since 2020. The most commonly selected was increased cybersecurity and data privacy risks, chosen by 38 per cent.

The rise of remote working followed at 36 per cent, and the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence at 32 per cent.

New regulation and legislation was selected by 24 per cent. The same proportion cited managing reputational risk in a 24/7 media and social media environment.

The survey also asked leaders about confidence in their own performance. According to AMBS, 54 per cent of financial services respondents said they worry about remaining relevant and competent as the business and management world evolves.

A further 53 per cent said they regularly doubt their judgments at work. AMBS said this was well above the 40 per cent average recorded across other industries.

Training gap

Despite the reported increase in complexity, the AMBS data shows that 25 per cent of senior decision-makers in financial services have not received suitable training to enable them to do their job well and manage effectively.

When asked which areas they would most like formal training in, financial services leaders most often placed financial analysis in their top three, at 44 per cent.

Understanding AI and how best to leverage it was selected by 39 per cent, and managing digital transformation projects by 36 per cent.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has separately warned that AI training is critical to the future of UK jobs.

Business Matters has previously reported on UK firms facing skills gaps and turning to AI and upskilling to fill them.

AMBS said the research explored how business leaders are coping with increased complexity when making decisions and performing in their roles, including challenges such as AI, geopolitical conflict and difficult economic conditions.

Arif Khurshed, Professor of Finance at Alliance Manchester Business School, said: “There is a huge amount at stake when leaders in the financial services sector make decisions. Money can be on the line, trust is paramount and the industry is highly competitive.

“Throw in increasing business complexity, which our research highlights as a common concern, and it is clear that leaders are facing significant challenges.”

He added: “We cannot underestimate the importance of organisations supporting their leaders and equipping them with the right tools to navigate a constantly-evolving business environment.

“In doing so, businesses can ensure that they retain and get the best out of their talent, and ensure they are best placed to navigate the challenges and opportunities to come.”

The financial services figures are drawn from a sub-sample of 59 respondents within the wider survey of 500 leaders.

About the author

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

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BOSTON – For much of the past year, Oscar Mayer has been a drag on the Kraft Heinz Co.’s performance. The primary issue has been the brand’s Deli Fresh lunch meat line, which had packaging that failed to reseal properly, said Steven Cahillane, chief executive officer, during a Sept. 9 presentation at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference.

“If you look at the share losses that we’ve had … through the first half of the year, 60% of them are in Oscar Mayer alone,” he said.

Kraft Heinz began rolling out updated packaging in early August.

“The declines have lessened,” Cahillane said. “You have to get to not as bad before you get to good. We’re kind of on that journey.”

The packaging issues also cost Oscar Mayer shelf space.

“We lost a lot of distribution, understandably,” Cahillane said. “But when we look at sales per point of distribution, it’s actually now growing.”

The turnaround is part of a broader effort to revive Kraft Heinz’s brands and make them more “alive, relevant and contemporary,” he said.

After taking the helm earlier this year, Cahillane pledged to invest $600 million across marketing, sales, and research and development, while shelving a previously planned corporate breakup. Buoyed by early signs of progress, the company increased that commitment to $700 million in August, including targeted investments in Oscar Mayer’s pricing, products and packaging.

Cahillane said Kraft Heinz already is seeing incremental improvements in its condiments, hydration and desserts businesses, while meat and meals remain priorities.

Consumer preferences also are shaping the company’s strategy.

“The consumer is increasingly going toward better-for-you,” Cahillane said, citing demand for higher protein, more fiber and cleaner-label foods without sacrificing affordability.

He believes Oscar Mayer is well positioned to evolve with those trends.

“A brand like Oscar absolutely has the right to go there,” Cahillane said. “Making Oscar less perceivably processed is not going to hurt the brand. It’s going to help the brand.” 

Baseball Hall of Fame pitcher and legendary New York Yankees starter CC Sabathia has told the story many times: Dave Stewart changed his mindset forever at just 9 years old in his hometown Vallejo, California. 

Stewart, a three-time World Series champion and World Series MVP during his time pitching for the Oakland Athletics, made a surprise visit to Sabathia’s Boys and Girls Club when he was just a kid. Stewart shared a message of inspiration, and it’s one that stuck with a fellow African American major league great who just so happened to hoist his own World Series trophy in a town known best for their hardware on the diamond. 

It’s hard to become a Yankees legend, and it’s even harder to find your name amongst the rarest of rare in Monument Park, where the likes of Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig reside in immortality. On Sept. 26, Sabathia will have his No. 52 retired forever by one of the most iconic franchises in sports, an honor he can’t wait to finally see come to life after learning the shocking news months prior.

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CC and Amber Sabathia pose after their PitCCh In Foundation 6th Annual Golf Classic at Alpine Country Club in New Jersey. (NTC Productions / Fox News)

But while Sabathia’s on-field accomplishments are Hall of Fame and Monument Park worthy, his off-the-field contributions to the next generation are just as timeless and important. 

That was on full display Monday at Alpine Country Club in New Jersey, where Sabathia held his 6th Annual Golf Classic for his PitCCh In Foundation. With golf being his latest sports passion post-retirement, it’s a day Sabathia looks forward to with his friends while making a community impact that feels as good as hitting a hole-in-one. 

“It’s always fun to be able to get out on the golf course and obviously raise money for a good cause,” he told FOX Business before teeing off alongside the likes of Victor Cruz, Gary Sheffield, JR Smith, Matt Barnes, Ron Harper, Jimmy Rollins, Ja Rule and the list goes on. “Our foundation, the money goes directly to the kids in the Bronx. Our kids back home in our hometown of Vallejo [California], this is a direct effect of people coming out here to play golf. 

CC SABATHIA’S PASSION FOR GOLF CONTINUES TO IMPACT YOUTH THROUGH PITCCH IN FOUNDATION’S ANNUAL TOURNAMENT

“I was just sitting down talking to Adam Jones and talking about being able to play golf, and the last six years, the network I’ve been able to build just around the game of golf. I wish I would’ve been playing longer, but I’m here now and excited.”

The event raised more than $450,000 to help PitCCh In continue creating opportunities and resources for young people and their families on both coasts in one unforgettable day. 

It’s moments like this that have Sabathia excited for this next chapter of his life. Yes, he will still be impacting the game of baseball, whether that be broadcasting, or working with the Yankees and MLB as a whole. 

But his foundation is something he holds near and dear to his heart, as does his wife Amber and their four children. In fact, PitCCh In is a true part of the family in their eyes. 

Winners from the PitCCh In Foundation 6th Annual Golf Classic, including Gary Sheffield, Ja Rule, Taijuan Walker and Stephen Malbon, celebrate at Alpine Country Club in New Jersey. (NTC Productions / Fox News)

“It’s great to see the foundation thriving in retirement. Sometimes in retirement, foundations go by the wayside, or players get busy and different things happen. But this is kind of our fifth child we’ve always said,” he said, smiling. “PitCCh In has been such a huge part of not just our lives, but like we said, kids on both coasts [and] our kids’ lives. 

“I was just with Derek [Jeter] and he celebrated his 30 years for Turn 2 [Foundation], and just the impact he’s been able to make on the youth just in general. So many different stories, Jeter’s Leaders [Program] and people, in the last 30 years that he’s been able to impact. Hopefully, PitCCh In can continue to be that vehicle for years to come, too.”

PitCCh In has done everything from field renovations to baseball clinics, to providing college scholarships and school supplies as ways to impact the communities the Sabathia family cares about most. They also have a mentorship program where, through educational and athletic activities, the lives of the youth involved are strengthened on levels both physical and emotional. 

Sabathia’s baseball legacy will be told forever in the halls in Cooperstown and behind the center field wall at Yankee Stadium come Sept. 26. But his story is one that goes well beyond the baseball player. 

CC Sabathia plays with friends, including New York Giants great Victor Cruz, during his golf classic for his PitCCh In Foundation. (NTC Productions / Fox News)

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It’s also the person he is, and the family he’s surrounded by, that continues to support and impact in a way he felt from the very beginning. 

“It was big for me when I was a kid, just having people that took interest in my life,” he said. “I just think about me being lucky in the situation I was in, whether it was my Boys and Girls Club – there was a guy named Philmore Graham who ran my Boys and Girls Club and took a huge interest in me. My high school baseball coach, my fifth grade teacher, all these different people who made an impact and why I’m sitting here. I want to hopefully be that for a kid.”

Wellness winners

The Swansea headquartered law firm has agreed a six-figure official club partner deal with the region

The Ospreys has been boosted with a new six-figure sponsorship deal with law firm JCP Solicitors.

The rugby region, which for the coming 2026-27 season will play at a revamped St Helens ground, has entered into a five year agreement with the Swansea headquartered legal firm.

The ground is being redeveloped, including a new south stand and 3G pitch, following a £7.6m investment from the Ospreys and Swansea Council, with the local authority having committed just over £5m.

As well as being home to the Ospreys, Swansea RFC will also return to its historic home with the ground and its improved facilities also being used for other sports and wellbeing activities.

The Ospreys has entered into a 50-lease at the council owned ground.

As part of its official club partner deal JCP Solicitors, which has a network of offices across south Wales, will have the ground’s new south stand named after it. JCP branding will also appear on the sleeve of all first team Ospreys shirts in 2026 and replica shirts from 2027.

Hayley Davies, director and chief executive, at JCP Solicitors, said: “As a Swansea-headquartered business, we could not be prouder to support our iconic local team as an official Partner with this major five-year deal.

“Much like the residents, businesses and communities across Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend who have stood beside the Ospreys during the recent period of uncertainty, we are delighted to show our support to the team following this challenging period.

“We look forward to supporting the Ospreys with colleagues, professionals, clients and friends at the new St Helen’s Stadium, building stronger connections through sport.”

Richard Lancaster, managing director (business) at the Ospreys, said: “We are thrilled with this major deal and to welcome JCP Solicitors as an official partner. JCP is a business that has built a strong reputation across south and west Wales, and the commitment to a long-term partnership reflects real confidence in the Ospreys, our ambitions, and our future.

“Support from respected regional organisations like JCP is vital in helping us continue to grow both on and off the pitch, and we look forward to working together over the next five years.”

The WRU is still planning to reduce the number of regions from four to three, from the start of the 2028/29 season, by having just one club in west Wales.

With the Scarlets and the Ospreys at this stage having no plans to merge, this could seem them having to bid against each other – assuming they both agreed to participate – for one licence in west Wales.

The WRU said it will shortly publish details on the bidding process and how any competing bids would be scored. The union said it will open the process in December with a decision on the west Wales license holder next spring.

It comes as Swansea Council, which could be potentially joined by other parties, has restarted a legal action against the union claiming that with the governing body effectively protecting the Dragons and Cardiff, which the WRU owns, it has breached competition law. The union is confident it will oversee the challenge.

Separately the so called coalition of the willing, that includes former chief operating officer of Hodge Bank and Principality Society, Rob Regan, and founder of GoCompare Hayley Parsons, is seeking support from union member clubs for an EGM with a motion to oust the union’s board.

If successful, and it would require a majority vote of clubs at an EGM ,they would install a new interim board and pause plans to cut a region. They would then interrogate the data underpinning the union’s decision, as well as exploring other funding avenues – including a possible rugby bond – with the aiming of maintaining four regions for the long-term.

However, they said that cutting a region couldn’t be ruled out.

People selling home-baked cakes from roadside cabinets could face tax bills, penalties and interest from HMRC if they have not registered for self-assessment, according to audit, tax and business advisory firm Blick Rothenberg, which pointed to the 5 October registration deadline.

Fiona Fernie, a partner at the firm, said sellers using an outdoor cabinet or “cake shed” need to be aware that HMRC has several ways of checking whether people with side-hustles are fully tax compliant.

She said: “Not registering for self-assessment when required to do so is a ‘half baked’ idea. HMRC can review council registration, and health & safety records.”

How HMRC checks sellers

Ms Fernie said income from cottage industry sales such as baking and selling cakes is classed as trading income and should be disclosed to HMRC each year on a self-assessment tax return.

She said some sellers do not disclose the income, “wrongly thinking they won’t get caught with their hand in the biscuit tin.”

“HMRC will compare the information they glean from councils with their self-assessment records to determine if sellers have paid the correct amount of tax on the income received,” she said.

According to Ms Fernie, people are required to register for self-assessment if their gross income from self-employed work is more than £1,000 per tax year. HMRC’s guidance on the trading allowance states that anyone whose gross trading income exceeds £1,000 must register and declare it on a tax return.

Business Matters has previously reported on research suggesting many content creators earning above the £1,000 threshold have not registered.

Penalties and deadlines

Ms Fernie said failing to register can result in penalties of between 20 per cent and 70 per cent of the tax due where HMRC judges the behaviour to have been “deliberate but not concealed”. She added: “the unpalatable ‘icing on the top’ is significant interest charges where tax is paid late.”

GOV.UK states that people who need to register for self-assessment for the 2025 to 2026 tax year, which ended on 5 April 2026, must tell HMRC by 5 October 2026.

Ms Fernie said those affected should contact HMRC as soon as possible. She added that there are unlikely to be serious adverse repercussions as long as sellers file their tax returns with the relevant income declared by the 31 January filing deadline.

HMRC has previously said that around one million people missed the self-assessment deadline in January this year, triggering automatic £100 penalties.

Ms Fernie said: “In cases where no return has been filed it will be extremely easy for HMRC to prove that a taxpayer has failed to notify their liability to income tax.”

She said that where taxpayers have been sent a return but left out some or all of their baking income, “it will not be a complicated exercise for HMRC to check for discrepancies and penalise where there have been errors in returns.”

Licences and costs

Ms Fernie said sellers with gross trading receipts of £1,000 or less in a tax year benefit from an exemption, while those above the threshold “would be wise to seek advice as to what needs to be disclosed to HMRC.”

She said this was particularly important because some councils in England are reviewing their street trading policies and insisting that cake sheds require a licence.

“The costs associated with a licence, relevant health and safety food hygiene accreditation, insurance and the cost of packaging which clearly indicates potential allergens in the ingredients, together with the more obvious costs of ingredients, bakeware and electricity all add up to a considerable amount,” she said.

According to Ms Fernie, a tax bill on top of those costs may make some of the enterprises unviable, meaning “keen bakers will have to revert to having their cake and eating it too.”

About the author

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Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday proposed opening the door for Canada to become the European Union’s first “associate member,” a significant step that could bring Ottawa substantially closer to the bloc as its trade dispute with the U.S. shows no signs of abating. 

Speaking in Strasbourg during her annual State of the European Union address, von der Leyen addressed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was in the chamber, and called for a major expansion of economic, technological and security cooperation between Canada and the EU.

“I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the EU,” von der Leyen said, drawing a standing ovation from EU lawmakers before walking over to embrace Carney.

BILLIONAIRE WARNS ‘EVIL EMPIRE’ WANTS TO ‘CRIPPLE TRUMP,’ CALLS OUT AMERICA’S NORTHERN NEIGHBOR

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech near Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney during her annual State of the Union address at a plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, on September 16, (Jean-Christophe VERHAEGEN / AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Von der Leyen said the two sides would move from their existing CETA trade agreement toward what she called an “Alliance for the Future,” aimed at creating a common prosperity and economic security space.

The proposed partnership would deepen cooperation for advanced manufacturing, defense production, energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, cybersecurity and the Arctic.

“We see the world with the same eyes,” von der Leyen said, citing shared positions on issues ranging from Ukraine and defense to supply chains and climate change.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney (L) shakes hands with a MEP as he arrives near EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola (C) during the European Commission president’s annual State of the Union address at a plenary session of the European Parliamen (Jean-Christophe VERHAEGEN / AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“But above all … Europe and Canada believe in democracy,” she said. “This is a partnership not against anyone else, but for our common strength.”

The proposal comes as Canada seeks to diversify its trade away from its heavy reliance on the United States.

Carney has pledged to double Canada’s non-U.S. trade over the next decade following a breakdown in Canada-U.S. trade talks last month that triggered a series of tit-for-tat tariff measures.

Earlier this week, Carney — who is scheduled to address the European Parliament on Thursday — said Canada was seeking a “unique alliance” with the EU, but not membership.

He said more detailed discussions are expected to begin at the Canada-EU summit in Montreal in late October.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney smiles as he listens to the European Commission president delivering a speech during her annual State of the Union address at a plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, on September (Jean-Christophe VERHAEGEN / AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

But the proposal still faces significant legal and political questions. The EU has historically resisted flexible alliances without a defined legal status. 

Speaking to Reuters on the matter, one EU diplomat expressed surprise at von der Leyen’s announcement, saying the proposal was too vague and warned that the Commission president was “overpromising and won’t be able to deliver.”

Deeper economic integration could also face longstanding trade obstacles. Mark Manger, a professor of political economy and global affairs at the University of Toronto, told Reuters that EU officials have been frustrated by Canada’s protection of its telecommunications and dairy sectors — issues that could complicate efforts to further deepen economic ties.

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It will ultimately be up to EU member states whether the proposal moves forward.

Reuters contributed to this report. 

The number of complaints made by households about water companies to the industry watchdog has risen by a record 84% in a year, driven by customer concern and confusion over rising bills.

The Consumer Council for Water (CCW) said the year-on-year increase was the highest in its 20-year history and showed “just how dissatisfied” many people were.

Water customers in England and Wales have been hit with steep price hikes in recent years. The regulator Ofwat has also allowed firms to put up bills by 36% between 2025 and 2030.

Water UK, which represents firms, said it understood that higher bills was never welcome, but the money was needed “to fund vital upgrades”.

The total number of complaints to the watchdog rose to 15,115 in 2025-26, from 8,235 in the previous year.

Meanwhile, complaints made by households directly to water companies, which is required before complaining to the CCW, rose by 56% to 321,347.

The top three subjects of complaints to the CCW were measured billing, affordability and billing admin.

Mike Keil, the chief executive of the CCW, said the figures “reflect just how dissatisfied many people still are with the state of the water sector”.

He said customers are “impatient to see the benefits” of higher bills.

“Companies need to be clear and open with their customers about how they are investing people’s money to deliver real improvements.”

The CCW assessed each water company’s performance on the number of complaints it received for every 10,000 households it serves, and the amount of effort customers have to put in to get their complaint resolved.

Thames Water and South West Water rated “poor” for both performance measures.

David Bird, retail director at Thames, apologised to customers who “have not received the service they should expect”.

“We know bill clarity has been a particular source of frustration, which is why we have launched a programme to redesign them, so they are easier to understand,” he said.

Bills for the average Thames customer rose by 31% in 2024, but were a lot smaller this year at 3.4%.

South West Water said: “We know there is more to do to improve our customers’ experience. We are taking action by reducing repeat contacts, resolving issues when people contact us for the first time, and ensuring they receive clear, timely communication.”

Portsmouth Water and Bristol Water were the only companies to score “good” in both metrics, retaining their position at the top of the rankings as the sector’s best performers.

Last month, Ofwat approved bill increases for 13 companies to meet increased pressures on infrastructure and the environment.

Five of those companies — Thames, Severn Trent Water, Southern Water, Wessex Water and South East Water — were already permitted to hike bills in 2024.

A spokesperson for industry body Water UK said: “We understand increasing bills is never welcome, but the money is needed to fund vital upgrades to secure our water supplies, support economic growth and end sewage entering our rivers and seas.

The spokesperson said that 94% of complaints are “being dealt with at the earliest possible stage without the need for further involvement from the consumer body”.

“The industry remains committed to improving communication with customers and showing clearly how their money is being used to deliver the improvements they expect,” the spokesperson added.

In today’s early session, Paytm rose 6% to a day’s high of Rs 1,829 per share, while One MobiKwik Systems rose over 5% to Rs 213 on the BSE. Pine Labs gained nearly 3% to Rs 199 per share on the NSE.

The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) on Tuesday announced that the government will introduce MDR on some Person-to-Merchant (P2M) UPI transactions from October 15 onwards, with merchants paying 0.4% on transactions above Rs 2,000. The maximum fee that can be levied on such transactions will be Rs 300 for payments of Rs 75,000 or more.

Also read | UPI transactions above Rs 2,000 to attract 0.4% MDR; check key details

What new UPI charges mean for consumers?

It is important to note that consumers will not be charged for UPI payments, and Person-to-Person (P2P) transfers will remain free. Small merchants classified under the P2PM framework, including vendors that receive up to Rs 1 lakh a month through UPI QR codes, will continue to be exempt from MDR.

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Transactions worth up to Rs 2,000 will continue to carry zero charges and account for more than 95% of UPI’s P2M transaction volume, according to the FAQ released by the government. The NPCI clarified that MDR will be borne by merchants and cannot be passed on to customers. This implies that consumers will continue to pay the listed price when using UPI, with no separate transaction or platform fee imposed by UPI apps.

RBI backs MDR charges

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) backed the introduction of Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on large-value UPI transactions, saying the move will help strengthen the long-term sustainability of India’s digital payments ecosystem. In a post on X, the central bank said the move would enable UPI to continue scaling, innovating and serving consumers and businesses across the country.The latest move comes after an amendment to the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, which provides a framework for imposing a Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on payments through UPI and other notified electronic payment modes. The government, in a statement, explained the rationale for imposing charges, stating that with exponential transaction volumes, the system requires significant and continuous upgrades in cybersecurity, fraud prevention, and infrastructure.

Charges were required for market expansion and self-sustainability, it said, adding that it is necessary to increase competition by encouraging more companies to expand operations, which requires a self-sustaining revenue model. Reliance on subsidies alone is not viable for the next wave of growth, and a balanced framework is required to ensure that UPI remains robust, inclusive and future-ready, the statement further said.

Also read | UPI Charges Explained: Will you pay a fee for Rs 2,000+ UPI payments? Government clarifies what users need to know

‘Someone has to pay the cost’

For nearly seven years, UPI became more and more popular as a transaction could be made so quickly without paying any additional charges. The government has however, repeatedly clarified that UPI will remain free for citizens and person-to-person transactions will continue without charges.

While discussing the costs of digital-payment infrastructure, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra in August said, “Someone has to pay the cost”. He stressed that the RBI wants digital payments to remain accessible, affordable and safe, but also sustainable.

What lies ahead?

According to Bernstein, banks could receive about Rs 14,000 crore of this pool, while payment apps could earn around Rs 7,000 crore, and the network about Rs 1,000 crore. Emkay Global Research meanwhile said the latest move will likely benefit Paytm and Pine Labs, while maintaining its ‘Buy’ calls on the stocks and increasing target prices to Rs 2,400 and Rs 230 respectively.

“UPI acquiring now carries a commercial revenue model that is contractual, recurring, and scales with value, in place of a discretionary annual subsidy. This will make the payment business structurally self-sustaining, making the business model much more resilient,” the domestic brokerage said, adding that even on conservative assumptions, it estimates Paytm to generate UPI MDR revenue of Rs 1,120 crore in FY28, and expects Pine Labs to generate Rs 155 crore in the same year.

Bullish brokerage calls for Paytm share price

JM Financial also increased its target price for the shares of Paytm to Rs 2,150 apiece, implying more than 24% upside potential from the stock’s previous closing price, while maintaining its ‘Buy’ call on the stock. The notified MDR rate is materially above the 25 bps JM Financial had modelled in, but the carve-outs are also broader than assumed, forcing our hand to cut the eligible-GMV overlay to 20% (from 30% earlier).

The new charges on UPI transactions are expected to generate incremental revenue of Rs 2.1 billion in FY27 and Rs 4.7 billion in FY28, according to the domestic brokerage. “MDR converts a structurally zero-revenue GMV pool into ‘monetisable’ volume with nearly full flowthrough to EBITDA, not to mention a clear resolution to the long-standing regulatory overhang on UPI monetisation,” it added.

Jefferies recently increased its price target for the shares of Paytm to Rs 2,100 apiece from Rs 1,600 apiece, while maintaining its ‘Buy’ call. The international brokerage highlighted that Paytm stands out on monetisation of its client base in near-zero MDR regime, which is now changing favourably. The fintech platform’s 4.9 crore merchant base and strong loan-origination model should drive 25% revenue CAGR over FY26-29, which, along with operational synergies will aid sharp rise in EBITDA and profit, it added.

Initiative in credit on UPI, cloud AI inference models, wealth offering and foray into overseas markets can lift growth, the international brokerage said, as it increased earnings estimates for FY28-29 by 20-25% to factor 25 bps MDR on UPI.

Bernstein recently named Paytm its top pick, citing robust merchant lending growth, operating leverage and the potential introduction of MDR on UPI as key drivers of earnings growth.

With a target price of Rs 2,200, Bernstein expects Paytm’s EPS to reach Rs 78 by FY29. Even after excluding any potential impact from MDR on UPI, its FY29E EPS estimate stands at Rs 54, still above the Rs 46 consensus estimate.

Also read | RBI backs MDR on large-value UPI transactions, says could help expand UPI acceptance

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.