Crypto World
93% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Today. What Happens to Bitcoin Now?
Interest rate futures put a 92.7% chance on the Federal Reserve raising rates on Wednesday. That leaves traders worried across both the crypto and stock markets. Because Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh with one single promise: cut interest rates. But Warsh can’t deliver that with inflation running at 3.4%
So, how will the market react, and which way will Bitcoin move?
Why a Pause is the Closest thing Warsh can give Trump
The Fed’s target range sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of no change at 7.3% on Wednesday morning, with zero odds of a cut.
Trump picked Warsh for the job and watched him sworn in at the White House in May. Even ahead of the swearing-in, the president was already treating his would-be chair as an ally.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has argued that Trump pressure and midterms are the only forces still blocking a hike. White House economic adviser Christopher Phelan said a move this week would be a mistake. Midterm elections are seven weeks away.
Former Fed governor Stephen Miran made the data case against hiking in an interview this week.
“If you held in June and July and become more hawkish as the inflation data come down, it speaks to an incoherent reaction function,” he shared.
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What Bitcoin and Gold Did the Last Time the Data Surprised
Rate expectations set the cost of holding assets that pay no interest. Bitcoin and gold both sit in that group, so cheaper money tends to help them.
The Bitcoin price held near $76,022 as of this writing, down 1.17% in 24 hours. Gold traded around $4,340 an ounce, up 1.4% on the day.
The August inflation report on September 11 showed how fast both react. Bitcoin fell from roughly $77,100 to $76,050 inside a minute. Gold slid from $4,353 to $4,292, then recovered.
BeInCrypto flagged hike odds near 90% that day. Pricing has since hardened to 92.7%.
KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told the Associated Press that a hike now could pull long-term rates lower later. Warsh’s press conference, not the quarter point itself, is what traders will parse.
The post 93% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Today. What Happens to Bitcoin Now? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
While Bitcoin and crypto-linked stocks fell sharply after the US Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity, or CLARITY, Act, Saxo Bank believes exchanges like Coinbase have more at stake than most because clearer rules could directly affect their trading businesses.
In a Wednesday note, Saxo strategist Ruben Dalfovo said Coinbase (COIN) is the most directly exposed to developments around CLARITY because market-structure rules could determine registration requirements, which assets can trade and who can participate in US crypto markets.
“Coinbase is most exposed to clearer market rules because trading and crypto participation directly affect its business,” Dalfovo wrote.
Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company Strategy (MSTR) have different exposures, according to Dalfovo. Circle’s business is more closely tied to adoption of its USDC stablecoin and interest earned on its reserves, while Strategy’s performance is driven primarily by its BTC holdings and financing structure.
As Cointelegraph reported late Tuesday, shares of all three companies fell between 5% and 10% after the Senate procedural vote, despite differences in how the legislation could affect their businesses.
The selloff continued early Wednesday, with Coinbase, Circle and Strategy all down between 2% and 6%, according to Yahoo Finance data.
Related: Democrats push back on GOP’s ‘final’ CLARITY offer with counterproposal: Politico
CLARITY faces narrowing path forward
The CLARITY Act failed a key procedural vote on Tuesday, with senators voting 49-50 against invoking cloture on a motion to proceed to the bill, well short of the 60 votes needed. The vote would have limited further debate and allowed the Senate to move toward considering the legislation on the floor.
Ethics provisions remained a major sticking point despite last-minute concessions aimed at addressing concerns over public officials’ crypto interests.
The setback significantly narrows the bill’s path forward this year. The Senate has a limited legislative calendar around the Nov. 3 midterm elections and is targeting Dec. 18 for adjournment, leaving lawmakers a relatively small window to revive the legislation before the current Congress ends.
Related: Crypto Biz: AI took a back seat when Bitcoin started climbing
Crypto World
Hamas told its potential donors to avoid Binance for funding and use rivals including Bybit and OKX
The newspaper subsequently reported that the Treasury is “investigating $165 million in cryptocurrency-linked transactions that may have helped finance Hamas” prior to the October 2023 attacks.
While the documents suggested that Binance may have improved its KYC and AML protocols, it’s unclear whether the Hamas overture is a response to this.
“When terrorist groups tell people to avoid Binance, it shows our controls are working,” said Binance’s chief compliance officer, Noah Perlman. “Binance is not a safe place for illicit actors. We invest heavily in sanctions screening, transaction monitoring and investigations, and we work closely with law enforcement to identify, disrupt and report terrorist financing and other financial crime.”
According to OKX, the wallet address referenced in the Feb. 10, 2025, communication had no association with OKX and had already been identified by its internal controls as linked to illicit activity. As a result, any attempts by OKX customers to transfer funds to the address would have been flagged and prevented, the exchange said via email.
Kast said it maintains a dedicated financial crime compliance function, with more than 50 employees across its broader compliance organization.
“All customers are subject to identity verification and screening before accessing our services. The company combines its own technology with established compliance and risk-management providers, including Elliptic, Sumsub, and Sardine, to support sanctions screening, customer due diligence, and transaction monitoring,” a Kast spokesman said via email.
The health tech industry is booming, with services like telemedicine getting more popular, and more companies offering tools to monitor personal health at home. To identify the companies across the globe using digital technologies to make healthcare more effective and accessible, TIME partnered with data firm Statista to research the World’s Top HealthTech Companies of 2026, evaluating metrics including financial performance, reputation, and online engagement.
Crypto World
S&P 500 Trucking Stock JB Hunt Dives On CFO’s Earnings Warning Amid Surging Diesel Costs
Shares of J.B. Hunt plummeted 12% on Wednesday morning after the trucking company warned of an impending earnings decline. The morning’s drop made it the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500. During a Morgan Stanley conference late Tuesday CFO Brad Delco front ran the bad news. Costs were rising faster than J.B. Hunt (JBHT) could raises its prices, setting up…
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It’s been four months, over 120 days, since Strategy’s dividend vehicle, STRC, broke parity and the executive leadership made getting it back to its $100 peg its absolute, number one priority.
Since then, it’s never, not even for a second, managed to get back to parity.
This week, however, as Strategy continued a major shift in its business model — repurchasing shares of STRC instead of buying BTC — it seemed as though it would finally succeed, with STRC cruising to $99 on Monday.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be.
The next day, STRC fell back to nearly $97. There’s no evidence of further internal purchases yet.
Read more: MSTR has lost 75% of its value since STRC began trading
More STRC sellers than buyers
Despite months of buying its own dividend vehicle, countless promises, and Strategy executives claiming that STRC is priority number one for the firm, the asset has remained stubbornly off-parity.
The CLARITY Act failing to pass only hurt the company’s cause more, with Strategy down 7% on the day.
In the meantime, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor has continued to incessantly repost strange, bullish Bitcoin AI videos.
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The U.S. Capitol in Washington, July 22, 2026.
Aaron Schwartz | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The battle for the U.S. Senate is still tight, but prediction market traders think Democrats have one of their best chances yet of taking the upper chamber.
Speculators on Kalshi now give Democrats a 54% chance to win the Senate, nearly matching a level reached in mid-April. On Polymarket, the odds are even higher, with a 59% chance that Democrats wrest control.
Republicans are defending majorities in both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate this November, but the upper chamber was always viewed as more difficult for Democrats to flip. Republicans already control 20 of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs this year, and Democrats would have to flip several states where President Donald Trump won by 10% or more in 2024 — including Alaska, Texas and Ohio — to take control.
Odds that the Democrats win the Senate have improved significantly in 2026 on prediction markets. Before the U.S.-Iran war began on Feb. 28, Republicans had about 60% odds to hold onto the Senate on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Odds declined as rising gas prices rove down Trump’s approval rating.
Odds that Democrats would win the Senate topped Republican odds of keeping control in April, but the GOP’s chances recovered in May and throughout the summer as the U.S. and Iran deescalated the war, easing pressure on gas prices.
GOP fortunes have darkened in recent weeks. U.S. oil prices are now above $100 per barrel, gasoline is above $4 a gallon nationally and diesel prices are at an all-time high. Pediction market traders now think gas prices will hit new highs this year.
This week has brought several high-quality polls showing Democrats with a favorable environment heading into November. A New York Times/Siena University poll released Wednesday showed likely voters nationwide favoring Democratic candidates over Republicans in their congressional districts by close to 9 percentage points.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
Crypto World
Wirex One Launches Publicly on Arc, Bringing Stablecoin Private Banking to the Mass Affluent Market
London, September 16, 2026 – Wirex, the global stablecoin infrastructure provider, has today launched Wirex One, the first stablecoin neobank built for the growing segment of mass affluent consumers, to the public. The platform is a day-one launch partner on Arc’s mainnet, delivering a private banking experience with true asset ownership.
Following a closed beta that amassed over 20,000 users in testing since June, Wirex One is now available globally.
Wirex One launches as part of Wirex’s wider integration with Arc, making Arc available as a settlement layer for any partner issuing cards and accounts through the Wirex API. Arc is an open blockchain network built for the world’s financial markets, real-time money movement, and agentic economic activity.
Wirex One was created for an underserved market. The global private banking market is projected to grow by over 10% annually to reach $1.24 trillion by 2035, yet a large segment of affluent individuals remain structurally underserved: too wealthy for retail banking, but below the minimum for traditional private banking. Stablecoins are closing that gap, enabling secure, borderless wealth management that the traditional financial system cannot provide.
Wirex One brings private banking onchain, managing everyday spending, yield, overseas transfers, borrowing, and investing from a single place. Arc was strategically chosen as the foundation for Wirex One due to its stablecoin-native, payments-optimised design, with a built-in privacy layer and real-time settlement.
Paired with Privy’s non-custodial wallet technology, it gives users complete ownership over their assets and institutional-grade security, without the complexity that typically comes with crypto wallets.
At launch, key features include:
- Stablecoin-funded card with up to 8% cashback in USD, instantly spendable in everyday life
- Access to selected crypto and stablecoin yield features
- Support for a wide range of crypto assets
- Multi-currency accounts, with fee-free FX and ATM withdrawals globally
- Ability to send and receive via SEPA, ACH, Faster Payments, card transfers, and crypto transfers
- Innovative membership model, offering higher rewards, fee-free trading, dedicated account management, and 50% off premium subscriptions for leading AI and financial platforms for higher tiers
Pavel Matveev, Co-Founder & CEO of Wirex, said: “A new wave of fintech apps are being built on stablecoin rails, and they all need the same foundation: regulated issuing, accounts, settlement, and yield. Wirex One is our own consumer platform built on that infrastructure, redefining what a private bank can be: a bank you control, not one that controls you. Every partner integrating with Wirex’s infrastructure gets the same rails, the same scheme access, and now the same day-one access to Arc.”
Today’s announcement is a major milestone in Wirex’s vision to build a unified, onchain suite of financial services for consumers and businesses on their stablecoin infrastructure, which recently reached $2 billion annualised card spend volume. In the coming weeks, Wirex One will expand to include tokenised equities and perpetuals.
More information about Wirex One, including card availability in supported jurisdictions, is available at Wirex’s website.
Developers can learn more about integrating with Wirex’s infrastructure on Arc here. The list of supported countries can be viewed here. Rewards are valued in USD
About Wirex
Wirex is the global stablecoin infrastructure behind a complete banking stack. Through a single API, any app, wallet or fintech can launch regulated accounts, cards, payments, payouts, yield, cashback and travel, settled in stablecoins, on any chain. Wirex is one of the few crypto-enabled platforms with principal membership of both Visa and Mastercard, settling in USDC and EURC without an intermediary bank.
Wirex builds its own products on that same infrastructure, through the same API: Wirex One, a stablecoin neobank for consumers, with Wirex Private as its highest membership tier; Wirex Business for companies; and Wirex Agents, giving AI agents the ability to transact onchain.
Trusted by over 8 million users since 2014, Wirex has processed more than $20 billion in transactions across 130 countries, and created the first crypto-enabled card in 2015. Built on a decade-long track record of regulatory compliance, enterprise-grade security and onchain innovation, Wirex is creating a financial system where money moves globally and instantly, giving consumers and businesses true ownership, privacy by architecture, and access to the next generation of global payments and settlement.
Disclaimers:
Arc is an open L1 blockchain launched by Arc Network Services LLC (“Arc LLC”) and operated by a permissioned validator set. Arc LLC provides software services only and does not offer regulated financial or advisory services. Arc has not been reviewed or approved by the New York State Department of Financial Services or any other regulatory authority.
The Arc network is provided “as is” and “as available.” Use of Arc involves inherent risks associated with blockchain technology, including smart contract vulnerabilities, network disruptions, and the absence of recourse for transaction errors or losses. The ability to transact on Arc depends on the ability to obtain and use USDC to pay gas fees. Neither Arc LLC nor any permissioned validator is responsible for the content, accuracy, legality, or functionality of third-party applications, protocols, or services built on or integrated with Arc. You are solely responsible for features or services you provide to users, including obtaining any necessary licenses or approvals and otherwise complying with applicable laws.
All Arc features may be modified, delayed, or cancelled at any time without notice. Nothing herein constitutes a commitment, warranty, guarantee or legal, regulatory, tax, or investment advice.
The post Wirex One Launches Publicly on Arc, Bringing Stablecoin Private Banking to the Mass Affluent Market appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, according to the Danske Research Team.
The team revised its own call this week and now expects that outcome. For Bitcoin watchers, the key distinction is between market expectations and a confirmed policy decision: the hike is still expected, but it has not yet been delivered.
The research team says tightening now likely represents the path of least resistance, given current market pricing and its longstanding view that rate hikes are eventually on the horizon.
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2026
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S. MARKETS
8:30 AM ET — Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET — Import & Export Prices
10:30 AM ET — 
EIA Oil Inventories
1:00 PM ET — Treasury Auction
2:00 PM ET — 
FOMC RATE DECISION + DOT PLOT
2:30 PM ET — 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference…
At the same time, it does not regard the decision as completely settled. That leaves the meeting relevant not only for the headline rate decision, but also for the details released alongside it.
Readers following FOMC odds into the September rate decision should distinguish between the reported 90% probability and any broader claims about how Bitcoin or other assets are positioned. The supplied research supports the market-pricing estimate, but it does not provide a verified assessment of Bitcoin positioning, leverage, or current price action.
Will the Expected Hike Be the Main Bitcoin Catalyst?
The Danske Research Team identifies the FOMC meeting as the week’s main US event. Alongside its expected 25-basis-point hike, the team expects the Fed to publish updated economic projections and a fresh set of rate projections, commonly called the dot plot.
The vote itself is also worth watching. Danske Research Team expects two or three dissenters in favor of holding rates, even as it maintains its call for a hike. That expectation underscores that the meeting is not a done deal. The final decision and any recorded dissents will provide the clearest evidence of how the committee resolved that tension.
The projections also carry an expected qualification. The team still expects the FOMC to publish the dots even if Fed official Warsh again chooses not to submit personal rate-path views. If that happens, the published material would still be available, but it would not include Warsh’s personal submission.
Supercharge Your Trading in 2026 With BloFin AI Trading Bots
What the Fed FOMC Signal Could Mean for Bitcoin
For Bitcoin-focused market analysis, the meeting presents several elements to monitor: the rate decision, the vote count, updated economic projections, and the dot plot.
Available evidence shows that the market strongly expects a hike and that projections and dots are expected to be published. It does not establish a specific Bitcoin reaction to any of those elements.
Commentary about the dot plot, future policy language, or a possible press-conference message should therefore be treated as market interpretation rather than a conclusion supplied by the primary research.
Likewise, it would be premature to describe any particular outcome as bullish or bearish for Bitcoin without independently verified market evidence.
The immediate question is not whether market pricing confirms it. It does not. The reported probability reflects expectations ahead of the meeting, while the FOMC’s decision will determine the actual policy outcome. The same caution applies to claims about risk assets, crypto-market volatility, or how fully expectations are reflected in trading activity.
Make Your Prediction Count With $25 For Free on Kalshi
The post Bitcoin’s Next Fed Test Is Today’s FOMC Meeting: Will $75K Hold? appeared first on Cryptonews.
After bolting to a record high in July on a second-quarter earnings beat, Garmin (GRMN) stock stumbled off its peak. A leader in global positioning systems and wearable technology, and rival to Apple (AAPL) in the smartwatch space, Garmin continues to cling to trigger a breakout and cling to key moving averages as it secures a spot on the Investor’s…
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Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a narrow price range as investors wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Selling has slowed, but buying has not been strong enough to push BTC clearly higher.
According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin has traded within a 5.5% range for more than 24 sessions, keeping the market quiet. The report says the next move could depend on whether new demand returns after the Fed decision, as traders have built positions at both ends.
Selling Eases, but Buyers Remain Cautious
About 840,000 BTC have a cost basis within this narrow range, meaning they were bought at prices inside it. Glassnode’s sell-side risk ratio has fallen to seven basis points, showing that long-term holders are taking fewer profits.
Newer investors now account for most of the remaining supply, but trading activity remains low. In other words, sellers have become less aggressive without a strong wave of new buyers stepping in.
Leverage has also built up around the current price levels, which could make any breakout more volatile. CoinGlass data show about $1.95 billion in possible short liquidations near $82,000, while long positions are concentrated around $75,000 to $76,000.
Institutional demand has also weakened, adding another obstacle to a sustained move higher. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $460 million in outflows last week, selling approximately 5,900 BTC, while Ether ETFs took in $196.9 million. September ETF flows remain positive, but recent outflows show weaker institutional demand could limit Bitcoin’s upside.
Inflation Keeps Pressure on the Fed
Inflation is adding another challenge, with August prices rising 0.4% from the previous month and 3.4% over the year. Core inflation eased to 2.4%, but gasoline prices rose 3.9%, and diesel reached $5.65 per gallon.
Higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated, especially as Brent crude trades above $100 a barrel and U.S. strategic reserves fall to 285.4 million barrels. This could reduce expectations for easier monetary policy and keep pressure on interest rates.
Markets now see an 88.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16. The U.S. 10-year real Treasury yield has risen to 2.55%, making non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin less attractive to some investors.
The post Bitcoin Stays Stuck as Traders Wait for the Fed’s Next Move appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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