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The World Is Running Out of Cheap Money at the Worst Possible Time
The world built a trillion-dollar future on one dangerous assumption: money would stay cheap.
For nearly two decades, ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing reshaped the global economy. Governments accumulated debt. Companies borrowed cheaply. Asset prices climbed. Investors learned to expect central banks to rescue markets whenever trouble appeared. But that financial era is changing at the worst possible moment.
Artificial intelligence requires trillions in data centers, semiconductor factories, electricity generation and infrastructure. NATO countries are preparing for a historic increase in defence spending. Tariffs, reshoring and deglobalization are forcing companies to duplicate supply chains. Governments are financing aging populations, energy security and industrial policy—all while refinancing the enormous debts accumulated when interest rates were near zero.
In this episode of The Financial Historian, we examine what happens when the global economy becomes more capital-intensive just as capital becomes more expensive—and why higher interest rates could expose vulnerabilities hidden by fifteen years of cheap money.
Key Facts & Insights
• At the peak of the cheap-money era in 2019, roughly $17 trillion of bonds worldwide carried negative yields, an extraordinary financial environment in which investors were effectively accepting negative nominal returns to lend money.
• Global public debt reached nearly 94% of world GDP in 2025, and the IMF projects it could reach 100% of global GDP by 2029, while rising interest rates make that debt increasingly expensive to refinance.
• The AI investment boom is becoming one of the largest infrastructure cycles in modern history. Estimates suggest global data centers alone could require roughly $6.7 trillion in capital expenditure by 2030.
• NATO members have committed to moving toward spending 5% of GDP on defence and defence-related security investment by 2035, adding another enormous demand for government financing, infrastructure and industrial capacity.
• Tariffs and geopolitical fragmentation have a financial cost beyond higher consumer prices. Reshoring semiconductor production, energy infrastructure, strategic manufacturing and critical supply chains means countries may increasingly build duplicate capacity for security rather than relying on the cheapest global producer.
• Global inflation remains stubborn. The IMF projects 4.7% global headline inflation in 2026 and says the disinflation trend underway since 2024 has stalled, making aggressive interest-rate cuts harder for central banks to justify.
• Higher interest rates do not necessarily trigger an immediate financial crisis. Instead, they gradually expose companies, governments, property markets and investments whose economics depended on permanently cheap refinancing.
• History offers a warning. The dramatic repricing of global capital under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker helped expose debt vulnerabilities throughout Latin America, culminating in Mexico’s 1982 debt crisis. The lesson remains relevant: financial systems are built during one interest-rate regime and tested when that regime changes.
Further Reading
• The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest — Edward Chancellor — An excellent history of interest rates, easy money and the unintended consequences of making capital artificially cheap.
• Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World — Liaquat Ahamed — A masterful look at how central banking, debt and monetary decisions can reshape the global economy far beyond financial markets.
• This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly — Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff — A deeper historical examination of sovereign debt, banking crises and the dangerous belief that old financial rules no longer apply.
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The bond meltdown and AI bubble brewing the next global financial crisis | The Business | ABC NEWS
Inflation is persistent, debt is high, interest rates are rising and questions linger over whether artificial intelligence will result in a world-changing productivity boom or prove to be the latest, and greatest, investment bubble. With the global financial system creaking under multiple pressures, a lot of smart people are warning that, eventually, something will have to give. One of those people is Satyajit Das. He has spent around half a century working in global finance across major banks and corporations, including the Commonwealth Bank, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and TNT. Since the mid-1990s he has been an independent financial consultant, author and media commentator. Well before the Global Financial Crisis erupted in 2008, Das warned about the dangerous debt structures building underneath the boom that proceeded the bust, leading Bloomberg to name him as one of the world’s fifty most influential financial thinkers in 2014. Now he thinks another crisis is due to hit within the next couple of years. The two most likely culprits are rising interest rates, leading to what’s been dubbed “Bondmageddon”, and the potential realisation of a vast misallocation of capital on an unprecedented scale if AI fails to deliver the returns needed to justify the mammoth investments being made in it. Satyajit Das made a special guest appearance on the ABC Business Daily podcast to discuss the rising risks with ABC business editor Michael Janda.
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