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Volatile yen draws intervention watch, other currencies subdued

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Volatile yen draws intervention watch, other currencies subdued
Currency markets focused on the yen on Monday following a sharp drop last week that spurred speculation of a rate check from Tokyo, while investors pondered interest-rate outlooks after a wave of hikes from major central banks last week.

The yen was a touch firmer at 156.64 per US dollar after dropping 2% last week. Japan markets were closed for a three-day holiday, leading to low liquidity while keeping traders on alert for an official intervention to prop up the volatile currency.

The Bank of Japan raised rates on Friday to their highest level in 31 years to 1.25%, yet the widely expected move did not boost the yen as two dissenting votes and a lack of explicitly hawkish guidance disappointed investors.

That led to the yen sharply declining before the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japanese officials conducted rate checks. A rate check involves authorities asking banks for currency quotes to gauge market conditions, which traders view as a precursor to currency intervention.

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Apart from the BOJ, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates this month, with both warning further tightening might be needed to tackle inflation due to the almost seven-month-long war in the Middle East.


Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, said the BOJ’s messaging has become all the harder because the Fed delivered a hawkish signal with its unanimous decision to raise its policy rate.
The yen had firmed to its strongest level in seven months in early September as traders wagered on a faster pace of BOJ hikes and early signs of repatriation by Japanese investors but has since surrendered some of those gains.”The bar thus remains high for the BOJ to convince markets of its hawkish tilt and anchor expectations when it comes to the yen,” Neumann said. “In the coming weeks and months, investors may again test the resolve of the BOJ to push rates higher and match the Fed’s tightening.”

The euro was little changed at $1.1482 after voting projections showed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place in state elections in northeastern Germany, in a blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative party.

ING economists said the results clearly echo the low popularity of the entire federal government, and of Chancellor Friedrich Merz in particular.

“Years of economic stagnation helped produce that fragmentation. Now the fragmentation will make the stagnation harder to escape,” they said in a note.

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The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six major peers, was steady at 100.23 after gaining more than 1% last week following the Fed’s rate hike, as the central bank signalled more increases could be coming.

Traders are currently pricing in a 55% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in October, up from 42.5% a week earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

“We do not think that the midterm elections are going to be a limiting factor in the Fed delivering another hike in October,” said Thomas Simons, chief US economist at Jefferies.

“Whether there is another hike in December will come down to the data and geopolitical developments. Looking to 2027, the path of rates will come down to what happens with the labor market. We would say rate cuts are likely in second half of 2027.”

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In other currencies, sterling last bought $1.339 in early trading. The Australian dollar fetched $0.7129, while the New Zealand dollar was at $0.5721.

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ASIC sues former Super Retail Group chief Heraghty

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ASIC sues former Super Retail Group chief Heraghty

The former boss of Super Retail Group, the parent company of Supercheap Auto, BCF and Rebel Sport, is being sued by ASIC over an undisclosed relationship with a senior executive.

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Block: The AI Layoff Bet Is Paying Off, But Insiders Aren't Buying It

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The Eurozone Crisis Deepens As Greece Attempts To Avoid Bankruptcy

Block: The AI Layoff Bet Is Paying Off, But Insiders Aren't Buying It

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Asia stocks climb, tech shares lead gains ahead of Trump-Xi summit

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Asia stocks climb, tech shares lead gains ahead of Trump-Xi summit

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Rock art damage complaint goes to UN rights council

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Rock art damage complaint goes to UN rights council

A traditional custodian will tell the UN Human Rights Council the federal government is allowing ongoing industrial damage to world-heritage-listed rock art.

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Xi rolls into Trump summit with China’s trade engine roaring

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Xi rolls into Trump summit with China’s trade engine roaring

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China slows humanoid robot IPO rush as hype outruns reality

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China slows humanoid robot IPO rush as hype outruns reality

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Wildcat taps investors for $60m

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Wildcat taps investors for $60m

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‘FCNR haul to power HSBC’s India wealth, retail banking push’

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'FCNR haul to power HSBC's India wealth, retail banking push'
Mumbai: Mumbai: British lender HSBC expects the foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits it mobilised under the Reserve Bank of India‘s special swap facility to act as a force multiplier for its wealth management and retail banking businesses in India.

The inflows, which at $14.5 billion were second only to the $17.88 billion that ICICI Bank mobilised under the special FCNR (Bank) facility, give new resources to lend and expand the wealth management business, said Sandeep Batra, its managing director and head of wealth and personal banking in India.

Also Read: Banks plan to align norms for project finance lending

The leverage option of up to 19 times – depositors could borrow 19 times the money they deposited – that the bank offered helped attract depositors, Batra told ET in an interview. Half the deposits were for five years.

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“We have a plan in place, and we are doubling down on whatever capability we need to develop,” Batra said. “FCNR (B) is one catchment…we are also opening 12 more branches.”


Banks combined mobilised $127.22 billion through FCNR (B) deposits in less than three months until the central bank-driven dollar mop-up exercise closed on August 31, the RBI said earlier this month. HSBC offered deposits ranging from $100,000 to $2.5 million, with a leverage up to 19 times, mostly financed through its branch in Gift City, Gujarat. Out of the $52.8 billion loaned through the Gift City international financial services centre, HSBC accounted for $10.9 billion.
Also Read: FinMin to meet PSB, RRB chiefs on Monday to ensure banking services during 3-day strikeGlobally, the Middle East was the top contributor to the bank’s FCNR (B) scheme, followed by Singapore and Hong Kong. Deposits came from more than 30 markets, Batra said. “We were fully prepared from an NRI reach perspective, number of relationship managers, our focus on the global Indian with, of course, the size and scale of our brand,” he said.

The fact that the bank has an ongoing six-year-old operation in Gift City gave it an advantage, he said.

“We already have clients in thousands in Gift (City). We will pay out interest every six months, which our clients can invest in a range of funds. Clients can make fresh deposits or use our multiple forex cards to spend money,” Batra said. “We also have a 7.5%, three-year fixed mortgage, which is attractive in a rising rate scenario.”

HSBC offered a flat 5.5% interest on three- to five-year deposits. The lending rate was 5% to 5.15%, or 35-50 basis points below the deposit rate. How much clients could borrow depended on their credit profile. After taking into account the leverage, the delivered yield for clients was 10-14%.

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Batra said one-third of the clients onboarded during the 52-day RBI window were credit appraised, which would be a force multiplier for the bank’s wealth management business across the board.

In wealth management, HSBC offers services to clients starting with ₹50 lakh of assets to up to $2 million (₹ 80 crore) for private banking clients. With a retail broking business now likely to be started later this year, the bank has a full suite of products to offer to its wealthy clients, Batra said.

The bank plans to use the liquidity generated through the FCNR scheme conservatively, he said. “We are finding deployment tools; those deployment tools should be corporate lending, which is match funded, and mortgages like the three-year fixed product, which we launched recently. Some of it could be deployed into government securities. So, it will be a combination.”

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COWZ: Popular Free Cash Flow Yield ETF Needs Change To Catch VFLO

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Good, better, best - Hands raise flags with the words. Concept of developing skills, doing a better job and being better

COWZ: Popular Free Cash Flow Yield ETF Needs Change To Catch VFLO

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Manitowoc: The Market Paid Cycle Prices For A Refund – Hold

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A heavy crawler crane stands on the territory of a container terminal.

Manitowoc: The Market Paid Cycle Prices For A Refund – Hold

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