Politics
The Conservatives must tackle any renewal of a ‘crisis of confidence’
They say the secret to great comedy is timing. It’s no less true in politics.
Steeped as this site is in following, analysing, and sharing with you – whatever you make of it – the fluctuations and fortunes of the Conservative party, timing is occasionally everything.
The announcement of a new Conservative policy aimed at students, to scrap the Plan 2 interest payments on student loans has been fortuitous. Quite apart from being smart politics being aimed at younger voters, it reinforces the pattern of policy thought through, not needing instant clarification – a step in the Badenoch strategy of ‘slow, steady and consistent.’
There’s also a sense, I have to report, that the new policy is ‘about time too’ and followed up with me rather too quickly with, ‘and there’s more to come, right?’
Why? Because maybe you’ve felt it, it’s certainly there in the air, that niggling doubt is creeping in again.
It’s true, I reported back from the Conservative Winter party a few weeks ago where – albeit green shoots only – amongst donors, the shadow cabinet and senior Tory supporters there was a noticeable sense of resilience and confidence in themselves; that the road ahead was decidedly tricky but they felt more up to the task. They were certainly no longer cowed by their angry rivals to the right.
Well self-confidence is a good thing. Badenoch herself can take a lot of the credit for providing it, but like Labour’s shaky claims that the green shoots of economic confidence are returning, you have to be able to show they’re really there at all, and accept there is something terribly vulnerable about a ‘green shoot’. A Party cannot renew without faith in the leader, but faith in the leader can’t do the work alone.
The projection of self-confidence Kemi displayed to the party at last year’s Conference was only going to resonate for so long. She’s undoubtedly built on it, by establishing that despite opponents suggestions, she is leader of the real, official opposition, and consistently hammers the bruises the Government has so consistently been giving itself – so much so that Labour are in the kind of existential mess she has done well to drag her party just about clear of. .
But any hint of complacency about where they are now, would be politically suicidal.
Any confidence within a party is not a guarantee of confidence in a party. Indeed there is a whiff of a second ‘crisis of confidence’ coming, from the wider party and one that mirrors this time last year.
This feeling – and everything about politics today is ‘vibes’ – is not inexplicable. We are just over two months away from crucial elections that will have a big impact on everything that’s come in the last two years. They also carry warnings from similar elections last year where, leaders aside, it was obvious that the Tory brand was still as damaged as it had been in 2024.
This May’s local elections, and in Wales, and Scotland where Badenoch has been in recent days, will not be good for the Conservative party. They might not be catastrophic and indeed far, far worse for Labour, but dispel the idea they’ll be ‘good’ for fear of a nasty surprise.
They’re now more likely to amplify the leadership question in Labour ranks than the Conservatives, but the absence of a rival who was always planning to move afterwards will not stop questions about direction, chances of success, and amplify the ‘wobbles’ our parliamentary party have been prone to.
Reform had a good week. The big defections have pushed many long standing Conservatives to ask themselves, again, if they are backing the right horse, questions I hear asked across the Conservative party. These shouldn’t be dismissed as disloyalty.
The Gorton and Denton by-election is, as it was always going to be for the Tories, the flip side of Parliament. Reform don’t get much of a look in in the Chamber by not being the opposition, and therefore, simply protocol wise, they are something of a side show there. Well in Manchester despite a good and brave candidate, the Conservatives are the side show. In Gorton and Denton they are all but ignored.
This is relevant because of the narrative now pushed by some observers, and certainly rival parties, that the electorate are no longer angry or vengeful but completely indifferent to the Tories. It’s a line that should be caveated in the same way predictions of their demise have proved premature – it’s something they need people to believe is fact – however it would be the most arrogant and complacent Conservative that didn’t worry about the consequences were it to be true.
We are still within Badenoch’s ‘two years’ that it would take to even get a hearing again post 2024, but there are some important warnings flashing up.
Polling wise the Conservatives bubble around the 19-20 per cent mark, with the occasional unwelcome return to 16-17 percent and have not yet consistently overtaken Labour. That every percentage point rise is so much harder to gain in the five party landscape we now have, cannot brush aside the fact that the Conservatives are not even close to where they were in July 2024, and that any movement upwards is stubbornly slow, if not static.
On Friday, my good colleague Tali Fraser wisely took a point from Henry Hill’s final piece for ConservativeHome, and I’m going to do the same. It’s long been internal lore that ‘Henry has a point‘. No renewal, or recovery, or chance to win, will materialise until there is an offer that honestly and openly addresses the deep seated problems the UK faces. There are no parties doing that yet. They all claim to, but not the really big economic, and societal questions. I believe the Tories can, but they haven’t yet.
Everybody is carrying that damned “Ming Vase” still and wether you call it ‘responsible revolution’ or ‘responsible radicalism’ the latter bit of those phrases is still not quite there. From anyone.
Part of the dampener on existing Conservative ‘new policy’ announcements is whilst many Tories are happy to see the direction of travel within them and the potential appeal to a tough electorate, they are often correcting problems the party created for itself when in Government. Being under new management, which definitely makes a difference, doesn’t stop that both being true, and noticed by voters and rival parties. The drag anchor of the past is still there, and still a big problem.
The irony of Labour failing to go ‘further and faster’ in their map-less quest for purpose is that phase is the whispered suggestion for many Conservatives amongst Conservatives about the current Conservative plan.
Again, the demand we saw before Conference last year is building – people might like what they’ve seen, but are hungry for more, and want it bigger, bolder – and always better. I know the leadership team are aware of all of this. They understand the secrets of timing, but if they also know that they can only say they are ‘on it’ .But saying is not the same as doing, to those asking.
When I started as Editor, I told of a friend who said to me ‘Giles, we are not done burning yet’. Despite suggestions the party is ‘still in denial’, usually from those who need that to be the case, the doubts about the future are creeping in again, and they need tackling.
The future is uncertain, there is a long way still to go, the finished picture is not available yet, and there are many who want to steam roller the entire project off course – permanently, if they can. It’s not unreasonable in such circumstances for those with reasonable doubts to seek reassurance that the project is on the right track, leads the right way, and is not a long slog to a dead end.
A new policy on student loans won’t be the complete answer, of course not, but it does at least show a process we are promised is ongoing is actually delivering, slowly. The party top brass has advocated patience so many times it’s a cliché, but as we get towards May, and certainly after, the worries will get louder.
The first rule of avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence. ConservativeHome will be eagerly seeking the signs that, if those at the top are aware of it, they are doing everything to avoid it.
On 21 February, we reported on disturbing comments from the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. Our focus was that Huckabee wants the world to pay Israel reparations for the genocide it inflicted upon Gaza. It’s another comment from Huckabee which has caused international controversy, however, especially in the Middle East:
🚨 BREAKING: Mike Huckabee just triggered a full-blown diplomatic backlash.
After saying it would be “fine” for Israel to take over the Middle East, 14 countries + major regional blocs publicly condemned him.
Jordan. UAE. Saudi Arabia. Egypt. Türkiye. Indonesia. Qatar. Lebanon.… pic.twitter.com/KuCsIh6TMz
— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) February 21, 2026
The Middle East United
As we reported yesterday, Huckabee is an American evangelist:
Many American evangelicals support Israel, but not because they like Israelis. In actuality, they think the creation of Israel is a signifier that the end times are approaching, and that Israel will trigger the Rapture.
If you’re unfamiliar with the term, the ‘Rapture’ is the time when God calls his faithful back to heaven. Said ‘faithful’ will not include the Jewish men and women who live in Israel, even if they do play an instrumental role in jump starting the Armageddon.
While it’s perfectly possible for faithful people to serve in government, it’s a different story for zealots. The response to Huckabee’s comments demonstrate why that is.
The following is what Huckabee said:
mike huckabee cares more about the greater israel project than he does about americans. he cares more about israel than the majority of american jews. totally insane person. https://t.co/BjbooXPuXI
— hasanabi (@hasanthehun) February 21, 2026
In the clip, Carlson makes it clear that Huckabee’s vision of an expanded Israel would mean the overthrow of every sovereign country in the Middle East. Huckabee says he would be “fine if they took it all”.
You know your interview with Tucker Carlson could have gone better when you united the entire Muslim world (probably for the first time ever) in condemnation. https://t.co/pZeZUAKbO4
— Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) February 21, 2026
Just imagine the response if a Chinese ambassador said he would be fine with Mexico taking over all 50 US states.
The problem for Donald Trump is that he’s sought to have good relations with the wealthier Middle Eastern countries. Now, Saudi Arabia and others have made it clear they’re furious with the Trump regime’s messaging:
The worst US diplomatic blunder in recent memory. Huckabee just set our relations in the M.E. back decades and destroyed any trust they may have in the US.
This is what happens when you hire maniacal religious zealots to represent you overseas.
Huckabee must go immediately before… https://t.co/p1jw5K3Pmm— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) February 21, 2026
Alliances
Obviously it’s a problem that the West is most comfortable with the wealthy Middle Eastern countries which use literal slaves. At the same time, Huckabee’s comments have just made it more difficult for the US to wage another devastating war in the Middle East:
I guess we owe Huckabee a “thank you.” https://t.co/egbtBaWcZq
— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) February 21, 2026
Much like in Europe, Middle Eastern countries may be realising that the US only looks out for itself.
Featured image via Trade Mark Room
A new poll conducted by Opinium has wrecked the far-right myth that Muslims in the UK and US are determined to impose Sharia law on everyone else. Opinium shared the results with Zeteo, who report:
The survey of 1,000 American Muslims and 500 British Muslims, conducted by Opinium for the Concordia Forum, a transatlantic thinktank and networking group, in October 2025, measured views on democracy, equality, and the intersection of religion and country.
85% of Muslims across Britain and the North of Ireland voted for democracy when asked:
Do you believe democracy is the best system of government for the country you live in or do you think another system would be better?
This compares to 71% of the general population giving the same answer to the question. In the United States, the figures were 81% for Muslims and 67% for the general population. Opinium asked a range of other questions too, including querying Muslims as to whether they had:
…changed [their] routine or avoided certain places due to concerns of anti-Muslim hate or violence.
Survey also finds Muslims are changing lifestyle to avoid threat of violence
Alarmingly, only 15% said they never change their routine. 32% of UK respondents said they “often or “always” make adjustments due to concerns of violence. This fear is rational given the huge rise in Islamophobia in recent years. Tell Mama, a group that measures anti-Muslim prejudice, said in February 2025 that cases of hatred towards practitioners of the faith were at an all-time high. They reported:
…a large rise in the categorisation of ‘threatening behaviour’ in street based cases. This amounts to a 715% increase in such cases between 2023 and 2024.
…surge in rhetoric that falsely portrays Muslims as terrorists or terrorist sympathisers.
This has accelerated during the Gaza genocide, amidst rhetoric from so-called ‘Israel’ and its supporters that cast the Zionist entity as being at the forefront of a battle between a supposedly civilised ‘Judeo-Christian’ axis and a regressive Muslim world. The whole concept of a single Judeo-Christian ideology is a myth, just as much as the ‘clash of civilisations’ narrative.
US political scientist Samuel Huntington concocted the latter concept as a cynical ploy to unite the US against an external enemy. This too was driven by his bigoted fears that a diverse US population would end up internally divided. Huntingdon said:
There can be no true friends without true enemies. Unless we hate what we are not, we cannot love what we are.
Our current ruling class are intent on ensuring we have someone to hate, to distract from the fact they continue to rob us blind. Muslims are still the main fall guy for this tactic. US president Donald Trump attempted to maintain the pretence that Muslims are subverting democracy when he said:
I look at London, where you have a terrible mayor, terrible, terrible mayor, and it’s been changed, it’s been so changed. Now they want to go to sharia law. But you are in a different country, you can’t do that.
This sort of shite seems to be having an effect. A 2024 Hope Not Hate survey of Conservative Party members:
…found that 52% believed parts of European cities were under sharia law and were no-go areas for non-Muslims.
Billionaires are the true haters of democracy
In reality, the people who have the greatest disdain for democracy are authoritarian politicians like Trump and the billionaire class they serve. Trump famously goaded his supporters into an insurrection in 2021, and has ranted to his military about the need to purge an “enemy within”. The brownshirts of his personal paramilitary force ICE have been murdering dissenters around the US.
Billionaires like Peter Thiel loathe the notion that his ilk ought to be constrained by the popular will. He has talked about a desire:
…to find an escape from politics in all its forms.
I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.
This, of course, is a conception of liberty in which ‘freedom for the pike is death for the minnows‘. Ultra-rich paedo Jeffrey Epstein viewed most people with total disdain, pondering that:
Maybe climate change is a good way of dealing with overpopulation.
His eugenicist fantasies included vile breeding programs to populate the world with his own supposedly superior genetic material. Elon Musk also has a similar disdain for democracy, illustrated by the fact he is a literal Nazi. He likewise shares Epstein’s belief in diluting the world’s gene pool with clones of his deeply flawed self.
Through their overt belief that they are uniquely qualified to rule, these people show us who are the true opponents of democracy. In the case of billionaires, despite never being elected, they reckon they have the right to determine the future of the species. If we want democracy to survive, it’s not Muslims we need worry about — it’s concentrations of extreme wealth and the economic system that makes it possible.
Featured image via MiddleEastEye
“I want a fairer system for students and graduates”
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson says the government will “look at” how it can improve the student loan system but does not commit to reforms called for by opposition parties #BBCLauraK
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) February 22, 2026
A cabinet minister has promised the government is “not ruling anything out” when it comes to the possibility of removing Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession.
The former prince was already stripped of his titles last autumn over his connection to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Fresh details about their relationship saw police arrest Andrew, formerly a UK trade envoy, over allegations of misconduct in public office on Thursday.
He was released under investigation. The former Duke of York has always vehemently denied any wrongdoing.
The developments have sparked widespread calls for the government to take further action against the former prince, who remains eighth in line to the throne.
Doing so would require an act of parliament, meaning it would need approval from MPs and peers before going to the King for royal assent.
It would need to be supported by 14 Commonwealth countries where King Charles is still the head of state, too.
Andrew is also still part of the Privy Council, a formal body of advisers to the monarch, which acts as a key link between the monarchy and the government.
So Sky News presenter Trevor Phillips asked education secretary Bridget Phillipson: “When can we expect to see draft legislation, excluding the form of Prince Andrew from the line of succession?”
She replied: “So we’re not ruling anything out, around this, but we have obviously got a live police investigation underway, so we’ll not be setting out further steps until the police have been able to do their work.
“And wherever that investigation, wherever the evidence takes them.”
Phillips said: “But so you’re up for this and also presumably advising the King to remove him from the Privy Council?”
“So we’ve said that we have to keep all of these options available to us,” the cabinet minister replied. “But you’ll appreciate that because we have a live police investigation underway.
“It’s right that the police are allowed to do their job.
“Once that is concluded, then of course we’ll consider in discussion, with the royal family, with the King, what further action is needed.
“But I do just think as well, in all of this, we really shouldn’t lose sight of where this began.
“And where this began was with young women and girls being exploited over an extended period of time by a network of very powerful men and we can’t ever forget that.”
Her remarks come after defence minister Luke Pollard told BBC Radio 4 that the government has “absolutely” been working with Buckingham Palace to stop Andrew “potentially being a heartbeat away from the throne.”
He said he hoped the idea would receive “cross party support” but warned that something like that could only happen when the police investigation concludes.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said last week that the monarchy must work to make sure Andrew can “never become king”, while Green leader Zack Polanski said “when necessary” people should be “removed” from their positions.
Andrew was detained for 11 hours on Thursday, which was his 66th birthday.
Police searched his property on the Sandringham estate on the day and are in the middle of a five-day search of his Windsor home, Royal Lodge.
Several other police forces are allegedly considering launching an investigation into the former prince based on the Epstein files.
It comes after the US Department of Justice released more than three million documents about Epstein and his connections around the world last month, including his contact with Andrew.
Reform UK treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick tells @TrevorPTweets it ‘wasn’t an easy decision’ to leave the Conservatives, but refuses to respond to Kemi Badenoch’s comments about his defection.
— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 22, 2026
Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott on Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest and links to Jeffrey Epstein.
— GB News (@GBNEWS) February 22, 2026
The post Trott supports removal of Andrew from royal succession appeared first on Conservative Home.
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