The Conservatives must tackle any renewal of a ‘crisis of confidence’

They say the secret to great comedy is timing.  It’s no less true in politics.

Steeped as this site is in following, analysing, and sharing with you – whatever you make of it – the fluctuations and fortunes of the Conservative party, timing is occasionally everything.

The announcement of a new Conservative policy aimed at students, to scrap the Plan 2 interest payments on student loans has been fortuitous. Quite apart from being smart politics being aimed at younger voters, it reinforces the pattern of policy thought through, not needing instant clarification – a step in the Badenoch strategy of ‘slow, steady and consistent.’

There’s also a sense, I have to report, that the new policy is ‘about time too’ and followed up with me rather too quickly with, ‘and there’s more to come, right?’

Why? Because maybe you’ve felt it, it’s certainly there in the air, that niggling doubt is creeping in again.

It’s true, I reported back from the Conservative Winter party a few weeks ago where – albeit green shoots only – amongst donors, the shadow cabinet and senior Tory supporters there was a noticeable sense of resilience and confidence in themselves; that the road ahead was decidedly tricky but they felt more up to the task. They were certainly no longer cowed by their angry rivals to the right.

Well self-confidence is a good thing. Badenoch herself can take a lot of the credit for providing it, but like Labour’s shaky claims that the green shoots of economic confidence are returning, you have to be able to show they’re really there at all, and accept there is something terribly vulnerable about a ‘green shoot’. A Party cannot renew without faith in the leader, but faith in the leader can’t do the work alone.

The projection of self-confidence Kemi displayed to the party at last year’s Conference was only going to resonate for so long. She’s undoubtedly built on it, by establishing that despite opponents suggestions, she is leader of the real, official opposition, and consistently hammers the bruises the Government has so consistently been giving itself – so much so that Labour are in the kind of existential mess she has done well to drag her party just about clear of. .

But any hint of complacency about where they are now, would be politically suicidal.

Any confidence within a party is not a guarantee of confidence in a party. Indeed there is a whiff of a second ‘crisis of confidence’ coming, from the wider party and one that mirrors this time last year.

This feeling – and everything about politics today is ‘vibes’ – is not inexplicable. We are just over two months away from crucial elections that will have a big impact on everything that’s come in the last two years. They also carry warnings from similar elections last year where, leaders aside, it was obvious that the Tory brand was still as damaged as it had been in 2024.

This May’s local elections, and in Wales, and Scotland where Badenoch has been in recent days, will not be good for the Conservative party. They might not be catastrophic and indeed far, far worse for Labour, but dispel the idea they’ll be ‘good’ for fear of a nasty surprise.

They’re now more likely to amplify the leadership question in Labour ranks than the Conservatives, but the absence of a rival who was always planning to move afterwards will not stop questions about direction, chances of success, and amplify the ‘wobbles’ our parliamentary party have been prone to.

Reform had a good week. The big defections have pushed many long standing Conservatives to ask themselves, again, if they are backing the right horse, questions I hear asked across the Conservative party. These shouldn’t be dismissed as disloyalty.

The Gorton and Denton by-election is, as it was always going to be for the Tories, the flip side of Parliament. Reform don’t get much of a look in in the Chamber by not being the opposition, and therefore, simply protocol wise, they are something of a side show there. Well in Manchester despite a good and brave candidate, the Conservatives are the side show. In Gorton and Denton they are all but ignored.

This is relevant because of the narrative now pushed by some observers, and certainly rival parties, that the electorate are no longer angry or vengeful but completely indifferent to the Tories. It’s a line that should be caveated in the same way predictions of their demise have proved premature – it’s something they need people to believe is fact – however it would be the most arrogant and complacent Conservative that didn’t worry about the consequences were it to be true.

We are still within Badenoch’s ‘two years’ that it would take to even get a hearing again post 2024, but there are some important warnings flashing up.

Polling wise the Conservatives bubble around the 19-20 per cent mark, with the occasional unwelcome return to 16-17 percent and have not yet consistently overtaken Labour. That every percentage point rise is so much harder to gain in the five party landscape we now have, cannot brush aside the fact that the Conservatives are not even close to where they were in July 2024, and that any movement upwards is stubbornly slow, if not static.

On Friday, my good colleague Tali Fraser wisely took a point from Henry Hill’s final piece for ConservativeHome, and I’m going to do the same. It’s long been internal lore that ‘Henry has a point‘. No renewal, or recovery, or chance to win, will materialise until there is an offer that honestly and openly addresses the deep seated problems the UK faces. There are no parties doing that yet. They all claim to, but not the really big economic, and societal questions. I believe the Tories can, but they haven’t yet.

Everybody is carrying that damned “Ming Vase” still and wether you call it ‘responsible revolution’ or ‘responsible radicalism’ the latter bit of those phrases is still not quite there. From anyone.

Part of the dampener on existing Conservative ‘new policy’ announcements is whilst many Tories are happy to see the direction of travel within them and the potential appeal to a tough electorate, they are often correcting problems the party created for itself when in Government. Being under new management, which definitely makes a difference, doesn’t stop that both being true, and noticed by voters and rival parties. The drag anchor of the past is still there, and still a big problem.

The irony of Labour failing to go ‘further and faster’ in their map-less quest for purpose  is that phase is the whispered suggestion for many Conservatives amongst Conservatives about the current Conservative plan.

Again, the demand we saw before Conference last year is building – people might like what they’ve seen, but are hungry for more, and want it bigger, bolder – and always better. I know the leadership team are aware of all of this. They understand the secrets of timing, but if they also know that they can only say they are ‘on it’ .But saying is not the same as doing, to those asking.

When I started as Editor, I told of a friend who said to me ‘Giles, we are not done burning yet’. Despite suggestions the party is ‘still in denial’, usually from those who need that to be the case, the doubts about the future are creeping in again, and they need tackling.

The future is uncertain, there is a long way still to go, the finished picture is not available yet, and there are many who want to steam roller the entire project off course – permanently, if they can. It’s not unreasonable in such circumstances for those with reasonable doubts to seek reassurance that the project is on the right track, leads the right way, and is not a long slog to a dead end.

A new policy on student loans won’t be the complete answer, of course not, but it does at least show a process we are promised is ongoing is actually delivering, slowly. The party top brass has advocated patience so many times it’s a cliché, but as we get towards May, and certainly after, the worries will get louder.

The first rule of avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence. ConservativeHome will be eagerly seeking the signs that, if those at the top are aware of it, they are doing everything to avoid it.