Nifty is expected to trade in a range this week, with 25,200–25,300 zone acting as a key support amid geopolitical uncertainties. On the higher side, gains are expected to be capped around 25,650–26,000 levels, as analysts said a decisive breakout is awaited.

SAMEET CHAVAN
HEAD – RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), ANGEL ONE

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty has managed to safeguard the psychological level of 25,000. The daily chart indicates a downward-sloping trendline around 25,850– 25,900 levels. We should wait for a convincing breakout to occur on a closing basis. This would trigger some positivity in our market to reclaim 26,200–26,400 levels in the near term. On the flip side, 200-SMA level of 25,300 is to be treated as key support, followed by the sacrosanct support at 25,000.

Trading Strategies: We are inclined slightly on the positive side and, looking at recent behaviour, we recommend a ‘Bull Call Spread’ strategy for the March 2 expiry, which is considered moderately bullish. One can buy 1 lot of ATM 25,600 CE at Rs 221 and sell 1 lot of OTM 26,000 CE at Rs 65 (levels of Friday’s close).

Here, the net outflow is Rs 156 (221–65), i.e. Rs 10,140, which is the maximum potential loss. The break-even point is 25,756 and the maximum profit is Rs 244 (26,400– 26,200–156), i.e. Rs 15,860.

STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Bajaj Finance CMP: Rs 1,030; Stop Loss: Rs 984; Target: Rs 1,089
The stock seems to have come out of its recent consolidation phase, with prices rising above the trendline breakout point. The weekly chart looks extremely promising.
Dixon Technologies
CMP: Rs 11,072; Stop Loss: Rs 10,400; Target: Rs 12,200

After a long phase of underperformance, we observe a ‘Morning Star’ pattern on the weekly chart. A move beyond Rs 11,900 would trigger a strong rally in the counter.

DHARMESH SHAH
VICE PRESIDENT & HEAD OF TECHNICALS, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
Notably, over the past 13 sessions, Nifty has retraced only 50% of the sharp two-session rally seen in early February, reflecting a time-wise correction rather than a trend reversal. This healthy consolidation is a “launchpad” to challenge the all-time high of 26,350 next month. Strong support is placed around 25,200. Improving market breadth, with 45% of Nifty 500 stocks above their 50-day SMAs, indicates a revival that augurs well for a broader rally compared to early February.

Trading Strategies: The index is expected to stage a rebound from the key support of 25,200. Hence, any decline towards 25,200–25,280 (Nifty spot levels) should be used as a buying opportunity for a target of 25,700 this week. This buy-on-dips template remains valid as long as Nifty defends key support threshold of 24,980.

STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Bharat Electronics
CMP: Rs 441; Stop Loss: Rs 398; Target Price: Rs 484

Stock has broken out of a contracting triangle and hit a fresh all-time high, with a higher-base formation near 20-week EMA indicating the broader structure remains intact. Over the past seven months, it has retraced only 38.2% of its preceding four month, 78% rally, reflecting a healthy consolidation; buy in the Rs 425–441 range.

Tata Steel
CMP: Rs 208; Stop Loss: Rs 190; Target Price: Rs 228

Stock reflects a structurally strong and bullish setup, marked by a classic cup-andhandle breakout and consistent respect for 50-week EMA, forming a higher base near this dynamic support. This behaviour underscores sustained accumulation and strong buying interest on minor corrective dips; buy in the Rs 200–208 range.

DHUPESH DHAMEJA
DERIVATIVES RESEARCH ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty remains in a structural repair phase following the recent sharp breakdown, but the rebound lacks impulsive strength as price continues to trade below 10-, 20- and 50-EMAs, all of which have flattened near 25,650, forming a stiff resistance cluster and reflecting a clear loss of trend momentum. On the downside, 25,350 (gap support) and the critical confluence near 25,250 form a key demand pocket for the coming week. Holding above 25,250 may keep the index confined within a compression band, whereas a decisive breach could expose 24,900–24,800 swiftly. Momentum indicators remain neutral, with RSI hovering around the midline, signalling stabilisation but no bullish expansion above 60 to confirm renewed strength.

Trading Strategies: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach near 25,750–25,800 with a stop loss above 26,000, aiming for 25,400–25,350 on the downside. At the same time, options traders can deploy a Bear Call Spread (sell 25,350 CE and buy 25,650 CE of the March 2 expiry) to benefit from overhead resistance and limited risk exposure.

STOCKS FOR THE WEEK

Navin Fluorine
CMP: Rs 6,526; Stop Loss: Rs 6,190; Target Price: Rs 7,190

The stock is showing strong near-term price strength, with a clean rebound from Rs 6,200 breakout zone. It is now trading above rising 10- and 20-EMAs, with RSI near 60 indicating sustained momentum.

Colgate Palmolive (India)
CMP: Rs 6,526; Stop Loss: Rs 6,190; Target : Rs 7,190

Stock appears to be in the early stages of a structural reversal after a prolonged downtrend. A breakout above Rs 2,180–2,190 consolidation suggests accumulation, with RSI indicating strengthening room for further upside.

ET Intelligence Group: Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, India’s largest renewable energy provider to corporates, plans to raise ₹1,200 crore through a fresh issue to repay debt and ₹1,900 crore through an offer for sale. The promoter stake will fall to 49% after the IPO from 65.4%. The company is a market leader and has chalked out future capacity expansion plans. However, the company faces risks related to land acquisition, dependence on long-term corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) and vulnerability to policy and tariff changes in the renewable energy sector. Given these factors, the IPO appears to be suitable for long-term investors with a higher risk tolerance.

Business

Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions focusses on commercial and industrial (C and I) customers. The company builds, owns and operates solar and wind plants and supplies renewable power to its customers. It has 2.8 giga watts (GW) of operational owned-and-managed capacity and 3.2 GW of contracted capacity yet to be executed as of October 31, 2025. It has C and I client base of 555 customers and 1,198 long-term PPAs. Its business is structured into two segments. The renewable energy power sales segment, which contributed 74% to total sales in FY25. The other business vertical of renewable energy services includes turnkey engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) and operation and maintenance (O&M) services, capex-based project development for customers, and carbon credit solutions.

Unlike utility-scale developers that compete in low-tariff auctionsClean Max signs direct contracts with corporates, enabling it to secure higher tariffs of about ₹3.8 per kilowatt hour (kWh) compared with the ₹2.5-3 per kWh range for other utility players. It has presence across 23 states and select international markets, backed by a repeat business ratio of nearly 72% and an average PPA tenure of over 22 years.

Financials
Revenue increased 27% annually to ₹1,495.7 crore in FY25 from ₹929.5 crore in FY23. Net profit rose to ₹27.8 crore in FY25 compared to a loss of ₹30.9 crore in FY24 and ₹65 crore in FY23. The operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin) of the power sales segment improved to 82% in FY25 from 75% in FY23 while that of the services segment improved to 14% from 11% in the same period. The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 1.9 in FY25 from 2.2 in FY23 against a peer range of 0.9-4.7.

Valuation
Since the company has started reporting profit recently, its price-earnings multiple seems to be significantly high at around 324. Its enterprise value (EV) works out to be around 16 times annualised Ebitda for the six months to September 2025. The average EV/Ebitda for listed peers is 27.

SYDNEY: Share markets were hesitant and the dollar slid in Asia on Monday as investors waited for some much-needed clarity on U.S. tariffs, while confidence in the entire AI trade was set to be tested by results from tech-diva Nvidia this week.

Oil prices eased ahead of another round of talks between the United States and Iran due in Geneva on Thursday, with the risk of U.S. military strikes lingering if a deal is not done.

Confusion loomed large after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, leading him to announce a new 10% rate on the rest of the ‌world, only to then ⁠lift it ⁠to 15% in a move that seemed to surprise some of his own officials.

“The tariff landscape is now more uncertain than before, uncertainty is not good news for any economy or market,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.

“Unless common sense prevails, we could be entering a circular process where new tariffs are announced, then potentially overturned, only for new tariffs to be announced, and we do the dance again.”

It was not yet clear when these tariffs would be imposed, what might be excluded and whether every country would be slapped with 15%. Some, including the UK and Australia, had 10% tariff rates under the former rules, while many countries in Asia had higher rates.
With so much ⁠up in the ‌air, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.5% in light trade. Japan’s Nikkei was shut for a holiday but futures traded at 56,970 against a cash close of 56,825. South Korea extended its bull run with another 2.0% ⁠rise, having already jumped 5.5% last week to all-time highs.

NVIDIA TO TEST AI MOOD
S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq futures 0.4% ahead of earnings from Nvidia, which is sure to cause waves given the tech behemoth makes up almost 8% of the S&P 500 index.

The world’s most valuable company is expected to post a 71% rise in earnings per share to $7.76, though estimates range from as low as $6.28 to as high as $9.68. Options imply its shares could shift by at least 6% in either direction on the announcement.

The Treasury market had been sideswiped by the tariff news as it raised the risk the U.S. government would have to repay around $170 billion in revenue. Such an outcome would, on paper, widen the fiscal deficit by half a ‌percentage point to around 6.6% of GDP.

The holiday in Japan meant cash Treasuries were not trading, but 10-year note futures were down 2 ticks.

The market had also been tugged two ways by mixed data with economic growth badly missing forecasts in the December quarter, but core inflation surprising on ⁠the high side.

That saw the probability of a June rate cut from the Federal Reserve come in to around 52%, from over 60% a week ago, and left the dollar firmer on the week.

Early Monday, the dollar was under pressure amid speculation the chaos over U.S. trade policy could reinforce the “sell America” theme evident in markets in recent months.

The dollar eased 0.4% on the Japanese yen to 154.36, while the euro added 0.4% to $1.1826. The dollar also dipped 0.5% on the Swiss franc to 0.7718.

In commodity markets, gold gained a safe-haven bid and firmed 0.8% to $5,143 an ounce. Silver gained 2% to $86.24 per ounce, after climbing almost 8% on Friday. [GOL/]

Oil prices were choppy, having gained last week as Trump said the U.S. military could strike specific targets in Iran if a nuclear deal was not agreed on. [O/R]

Brent edged down 0.6% to $71.29 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.8% to $65.95 per barrel.

While global headlines fixate on cryptocurrency crashes and Silicon Valley’s AI arms race, a more profound transformation is unfolding across Asia’s telecommunications networks. 

Key takeaways

• Telecom operators are leveraging their 5.6 billion global subscribers and existing infrastructure to provide financial services to 1.4 billion unbanked adults, processing over USD 1.4 trillion in mobile money transactions annually.
• The convergence creates a privacy dilemma where subscriber data enables financial inclusion through AI-driven credit scoring but also risks building surveillance-based financial systems without adequate regulatory oversight.
• Asia’s financial future hinges on whether regulators mandate interoperability across telco-fintech platforms or allow fragmented monopolies, with initiatives like QRIS projected to reach AUD 1.3 trillion by 2030 serving as critical tests.

The convergence of fintech and telecom isn’t just another corporate buzzword. It’s a fundamental restructuring of how 4.5 billion people will access financial services in the coming decade.

The numbers tell a compelling story that traditional financial institutions should find deeply unsettling: mobile money platforms processed over USD 1.4 trillion globally in 2023, with Asia’s East Asia and Pacific region alone accounting for 428 million registered accounts. Yet this isn’t merely about transaction volume. It’s about telecom operators accomplishing what banks have failed to do for generations: reaching the financially invisible.

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Key Players & Success Stories (2025–2026)

The landscape has shifted from simple “e-wallets” to sophisticated digital banks.

Market	Lead Player	Model	Status (2026)
Philippines	GCash (Globe)	Super-App	Now the primary financial tool for >80% of Filipinos; leading in “wallet-to-card” integration.
Singapore	GXS Bank (Grab + Singtel)	Digital Bank	Dominating the gig-economy segment with daily interest and seamless “eco-system” lending.
Malaysia	Boost (Axiata)	Digital Bank	Recently transitioned from a wallet to a full bank, focusing on SME micro-financing.
Thailand	TrueMoney (True Corp)	Payment Rail	Leading the charge in the Thai Ministry of Finance’s new virtual bank licenses (expected mid-20

The Infrastructure Advantage Banks Can’t Replicate

The genius of telco-led fintech lies not in technological sophistication, but in leveraging existing infrastructure asymmetries. Globe Telecom’s GCash in the Philippines serves 94 million users, more than the country’s entire adult population, because telecommunications operators solved the “last mile” problem decades ago. They already possess the distribution networks, customer relationships, and trust frameworks that challenger banks must build from scratch at ruinous cost.

Consider the contrasting trajectories: while China’s traditional telecom revenue crawled forward at 0.7% in 2025, operators pivoted to financial services that capitalize on their 5.6 billion global mobile subscribers. This isn’t diversification born of strength. It’s survival instinct meeting structural opportunity. And the timing couldn’t be more fortuitous.

Financial Inclusion or Corporate Expansion? Perhaps Both

The World Bank’s figure of 1.4 billion unbanked adults globally sounds like a humanitarian crisis, and telcos have positioned themselves as the solution. Bangladesh’s bKash, scaled with Axiata Group’s backing, now serves over 70 million users in a country where traditional banking infrastructure remains sparse and geographically concentrated in urban centers.

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Why Asia? (The Leapfrog Effect)

The reason telco-led fintech thrived in Asia while struggling in the US/Europe is the lack of legacy infrastructure.

Many Asian consumers skipped the “Credit Card/Physical Bank” phase and went straight from cash to smartphones. In 2026, mobile applications hold a staggering 72.6% of the fintech market share in the region.

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But let’s be clear-eyed about motivations: telecom operators aren’t charitable institutions. They’re responding to existential threats like commoditized connectivity, margin compression, and infrastructure debt by extracting more value from existing customer relationships. That their commercial interests align with social goods like financial inclusion is fortunate coincidence, not altruistic design.

The question isn’t whether telco-fintech advances inclusion (it demonstrably does), but whether these operators will become the new gatekeepers of financial access, replacing bank monopolies with telecom oligopolies. Early signs suggest concentration risks are real: a handful of operators are capturing dominant market shares in payments, lending, and insurance across multiple Southeast Asian markets.

The Data Dilemma: Enabler or Privacy Minefield?

Telecom operators’ “secret weapon,” granular subscriber data enabling alternative credit scoring, is simultaneously their greatest capability and biggest vulnerability. When operators use behavioral data to extend microloans to users lacking formal credit histories, they’re democratizing access. When that same data becomes fodder for surveillance capitalism, they’re building Orwellian financial ecosystems.

The Asian Development Bank’s enthusiasm for AI-driven credit assessment tools overlooks uncomfortable realities: these systems often perpetuate existing biases while creating new forms of algorithmic discrimination. A farmer in rural Vietnam denied credit by an opaque AI model has less recourse than one rejected by a human loan officer who must justify decisions.

As 5G networks expand (Ericsson forecasts 1.5 billion Asia Pacific subscriptions by 2030), the volume and granularity of monetizable data will explode. The regulatory frameworks governing this data remain woefully inadequate across most Asian jurisdictions. We’re building the financial nervous system of a digital economy on privacy foundations made of sand.

Interoperability: The Test of Genuine Progress

The convergence of telecom and fintech now enters its most critical phase, defined not by individual platform success but by interoperability and cross-border integration. Initiatives like Project Nexus and Indonesia’s QRIS expansion (projected to reach AUD 1.3 trillion by 2030 across 30 million merchants) will determine whether we’re building an interconnected regional financial ecosystem or a fragmented patchwork of walled gardens.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: telecom operators have every commercial incentive to maintain proprietary ecosystems that lock in users and maximize data capture. True interoperability, where a GCash user seamlessly transacts with a bKash merchant across borders with minimal friction and transparent fees, undermines operator moats and commoditizes their platforms.

Yet without aggressive interoperability mandates, Asia risks replicating at regional scale the same fragmentation that stifled innovation in European payments for decades. Regulators must force operators to choose: become interoperable infrastructure layers supporting regional commerce, or remain siloed platforms serving narrow national markets.

The Coming Collision with Big Tech

Telecom operators currently enjoy first-mover advantages in fintech, but their dominance is hardly assured. Digital-native fintech firms operate with agile development models and superior customer experience strategies. More ominously, global technology giants with deeper pockets and more sophisticated AI capabilities are circling these markets.

The competitive dynamics will intensify as platforms like Singapore’s Singtel (through GXS Bank) and India’s Reliance Jio (via Jio Financial Services) expand beyond national borders. Some operators will succeed in becoming regional digital banks. Others will be reduced to “dumb pipes” carrying transactions for fintech platforms that captured the customer relationship.

Success will require more than scale. It demands world-class cybersecurity, sophisticated fraud prevention, regulatory navigation across diverse jurisdictions, and customer experience excellence. Most telecom operators are telecommunications companies trying to become financial institutions. That transition is far harder than industry optimism suggests.

What’s Really at Stake

The telco-fintech convergence represents more than industry evolution. It’s a referendum on whether Asia will build inclusive, interoperable digital financial infrastructure or fragmented systems that replicate offline inequities in digital form.

If executed well, with appropriate regulatory oversight and genuine commitment to interoperability, telco-led fintech could accelerate financial inclusion, enable cross-border commerce, and provide millions of underserved consumers with access to credit, insurance, and wealth-building tools. The GSMA data showing 18% year-over-year growth in active mobile money accounts across East Asia and Pacific suggests this potential is being realized.

If executed poorly, with inadequate privacy protections, monopolistic practices, and regulatory capture, we risk creating new forms of financial exclusion where algorithmic gatekeepers replace human ones, and vast populations become dependent on opaque platforms accountable to shareholders rather than users.

The next five years will be decisive. As digital adoption continues expanding at 4.9% annually across Asian markets, the architectural choices made today about interoperability, data governance, and competition policy will shape financial access for billions of people across multiple generations.

Telecom operators didn’t set out to revolutionize finance. They stumbled into it while searching for revenue growth beyond commoditized connectivity. But intent matters less than impact. And the impact of telco-led fintech on Asia’s economic future will be profound, for better or worse.

The question isn’t whether this revolution will happen. It’s already happening. The question is whether it will be inclusive or extractive, interoperable or fragmented, empowering or exploitative. Those outcomes aren’t predetermined. They depend on regulatory choices and competitive dynamics still being contested across Asian capitals.

Traditional banks had decades to solve financial inclusion and failed. Telecom operators have been given a second chance. How they use it will define not just their industry’s future, but the economic prospects of billions of people across the world’s most dynamic region.

Other People are Reading

IDFC First Bank, which recently disclosed ₹590 crore unauthorised transactions linked to Haryana government accounts, says the incident was isolated and confined to a single branch in Chandigarh. The transactions were executed using forged cheques and manually carried out at the branch, managing director and chief executive V Vaidyanathan tells ET’s Saloni Shukla. Edited excerpts:

What went wrong, and how did these transactions occur?

Certain employees of a branch in Chandigarh, most possibly in connivance with external parties, have fraudulently transferred these amounts to beneficiaries who had accounts outside IDFC First Bank, the details of which will emerge after investigation.

Has the bank appointed a forensic auditor?

The bank is appointing KPMG to conduct an independent forensic audit to get to the bottom of this issue.

Were these transactions executed electronically or manually?
As per our preliminary assessment, the transactions were carried out using forged and fraudulent authorisation letters and cheques. So these are manual transactions done at the branch level.What internal controls and checks are ordinarily in place for handling such government-linked accounts, and how were these bypassed or compromised?

The bank has necessary controls in place, including maker, checker and authoriser for clearing cheques or debit instructions from the department. We have been in operation for over 10 years and have rolled out over 1,000 branches and have had no such incident before. As part of the control process, the bank also sends periodic system-generated statements and communications to the registered customer IDs, including mobile alerts, SMS transaction alerts, monthly bank statements and monthly balance confirmation certificates. But in this case, it appears that connivance between the employees and third parties has led to the clearing of instruments, which in hindsight are appearing forged. Prima facie third-party entities are involved in this compromise.

Is the issue strictly limited to one branch in Chandigarh?

The issue is specific to one branch and one client group and is thus an isolated instance. There is no system-level issue. All branches of the bank are running smoothly.

Could the financial impact exceed ₹590 crore?

We have put out the number as we could best assess at this point of time. The financial impact would depend upon recoveries or any additional claims, but our best estimate is that this number is appropriate to the situation. As you know the bank is well capitalised, and profitability is on a positive trajectory because of falling credit costs and expected improvement in net interest margin during the fourth quarter, and hence, this number should be manageable.

What steps are the bank taking to recover the funds? What actions are being initiated against the individuals involved?

We are making efforts to trace the flow of funds and will seek appropriate restoration of funds where possible. The bank will pursue strict civil and criminal action against the perpetrators, internal or external, involved and responsible for this incident. We are determined to get to the root of this.While the initial impact has been assessed at ₹590 crore, the final financial implication will depend on further information, validation of claims and potential recoveries. These may include lien marking on suspected beneficiary accounts held with other banks, liabilities of other entities involved in the transactions and legal recovery proceedings. The bank has sent recall requests to certain beneficiary banks to mark liens on balances in suspicious accounts.