Just a few weeks ago, chatter in the media center immediately following the Charlotte road-course race focused on whether the four drivers who advance to Phoenix eligible for the Cup title could all come from Hendrick Motorsports.
Now, it’s possible there will be none.
The odds would say there will be one as they enter the final elimination race Sunday at Martinsville. With two automatic bids already set with Joey Logano (Penske) and Tyler Reddick (23XI), only two spots are open. Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing) has a 29-point edge on the cutoff while HMS driver William Byron has a seven-point edge on teammate Kyle Larson, the first driver currently on the outside looking in.
Denny Hamlin (JGR) sits 18 points back, while Ryan Blaney (Penske) and Chase Elliott (Hendrick) have mathematical chances to point their way in, but for all intents and purposes must win.
If Blaney — the defending winner of this race — or Hamlin (a five-time Martinsville winner but with his last coming in 2015) wins and Bell has a solid top-10 run in the stages and the race, Hendrick will end up shut out of the drivers championship.
How in the world did things fall apart so fast?
It started with the disqualification of Alex Bowman at Charlotte when his car failed postrace weight requirements. That knocked him out of the playoffs.
Then came Las Vegas, where Elliott was an innocent victim in a wreck where Martin Truex Jr. wiggled toward him, pushing him into Reddick, who was trying to make a move on the outside. Elliott, who has only one win this year so doesn’t have many playoff points to help him advance, finished several laps down and faced must-win situations at Homestead or Martinsville.
In both of the last two races at Las Vegas and Homestead, Larson has had issues. Pit crew woes ruined his winning hopes at Las Vegas, and then a flat tire forced him to try to rally at Homestead, which he nearly did before a move in the final 10 laps went awry and damaged his car.
What about Byron? He’s been somewhat his similar self as he has come home in fourth and sixth in the two races. But very good might not be enough when other drivers seem more in a position to win races.
The good news for Hendrick is that Martinsville remains one of the organization’s best tracks. Byron won there in the spring with hundreds of Hendrick employees in attendance as they celebrated the 40th anniversary of the organization. Larson finished second in that race and won at Martinsville in spring 2023, conquering a track that typically isn’t one of his best.
Throw in a softer tire that potentially will lead to more passing, and that could help the Hendrick drivers, who are talented and find the way to pass.
But can they have flawless days on pit road? Will they make the right choices when it comes to pit strategy?
There’s little doubt Byron and Larson will have strong cars on Sunday. But depending on how the race plays out, they might end up out as even strong days might not be enough.
Of course, Hendrick drivers could land both the remaining spots. Larson or Byron or Elliott could win, earning an automatic bid, and if Bell has a bad day, Larson or Byron could get in on points. But that seems like a longshot.
Most likely, they get one of their cars in. With Larson having six wins and appearing to have a little more speed than Byron in recent races, it would appear he should be the one — until one looks at how he seemingly has found trouble in just as many events as he wins. Byron is just as hard to predict considering his solid recent performances but just still seems a slight tick off that has kept him out of victory lane.
For those Hendrick fans who are nervous, it’s quite understandable. They should feel nervous until the checkered flag Sunday. At least if things don’t go their way early in the race Sunday, Hendrick fans can at least have hope — if anything, they have learned over the last couple of weeks, that championship hopes can quickly change.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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