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IMF: US Inflation Won’t Hit Fed Target Until 2027, Delaying Rate Cuts

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IMF: US Inflation Won't Hit Fed Target Until 2027, Delaying Rate Cuts

The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that US inflation will not return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until early 2027.

The assessment, part of the IMF’s first Article IV review of the Trump administration, signals that meaningful rate relief remains distant despite the president’s optimism.

IMF Flags Fiscal Risks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters the US current account deficit is “too big.” The Fund estimates it at 3.5% to 4% of GDP in the near term.

But the IMF’s prescription clashes with the administration’s approach. Nigel Chalk, the Fund’s Western Hemisphere Director, said fiscal consolidation — not tariffs — is the best path to narrowing the deficit. The recommendation comes after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s broad emergency tariffs as illegal, forcing the administration to invoke Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for replacement levies.

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The fiscal picture is stark. The IMF projects US federal deficits will remain between 7% and 8% of GDP in the coming years. That is more than double the levels targeted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Consolidated government debt is on track to reach 140% of GDP by 2031.

“The upward path for the public debt-GDP ratio and increasing levels of short-term debt-GDP represent a growing stability risk to the US and global economy,” the Fund warned.

Trump’s Rate Optimism vs. Structural Reality

The IMF review landed one day after Trump’s State of the Union address, where the president painted a rosy picture on borrowing costs. He claimed mortgage rates had hit four-year lows and that annual mortgage costs had dropped nearly $5,000 since he took office. He framed lower rates as the solution to what he called the “Biden-created housing problem.”

Yet the IMF’s numbers tell a different story. With inflation not reaching the Fed’s target until 2027 and fiscal deficits running at twice the administration’s own goals, the structural case for higher-for-longer rates is strengthening. The Fund pegged 2026 US growth at a resilient 2.4%, leaving the Fed little urgency to ease.

What It Means for Crypto

The implications for risk assets are clear. Sticky inflation and an expanding fiscal deficit reduce the probability of aggressive rate cuts this year. For crypto markets, which rallied on rate-cut expectations through late 2025, the IMF’s assessment reinforces caution.

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The deeper irony is that the administration’s own fiscal expansion — including what the IMF notes are historically large tax cuts — is the primary driver of the deficit that keeps rates elevated. Trump wants lower rates but is pursuing policies that structurally prevent them.

The IMF stopped short of predicting a crisis, noting that “the risk of sovereign stress in the US is low.” But the trajectory it describes — rising debt, persistent deficits, delayed disinflation — points to an environment where rate relief comes slowly, if at all.

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Crypto World

BlockFills CEO steps down as $75M loss triggers sale talks and withdrawal freeze

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BlockFills CEO steps down as $75M loss triggers sale talks and withdrawal freeze

BlockFills co-founder and CEO Nicholas Hammer has stepped down from his leadership role, with the company’s website now listing Joseph Perry as interim CEO.

Summary

  • BlockFills co-founder and CEO Nicholas Hammer has stepped down, with Joseph Perry appointed as interim CEO.
  • The firm halted deposits and withdrawals earlier this month after suffering a reported $75 million lending loss.
  • BlockFills is now exploring a potential sale or strategic partnership as it navigates liquidity pressures during the ongoing crypto bear market.

Leadership shakeup at BlockFills as firm seeks buyer after market stress

The leadership change comes as the Chicago-based crypto lending and liquidity firm grapples with significant financial stress, operational freezes and strategic uncertainty.

On February 11, 2026, BlockFills temporarily suspended client deposits and withdrawals, a decision attributed to challenging market conditions and liquidity pressures. The suspension remains in place with no clear timeline for resumption, prompting concern among its roughly 2,000 institutional clients, which include hedge funds, asset managers and mining firms.

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According to media reports, the company also has an approximate $75 million loss linked to its crypto lending business after the value of collateral backing loans declined sharply during the recent downturn in digital asset prices.

Some clients were privately advised to withdraw assets before the full freeze was implemented, a move that industry watchers see as indicative of deeper liquidity stress.

BlockFills’ management and investors are now reportedly actively seeking a buyer or strategic partner to stabilize operations, with Joseph Perry stepping in to lead these efforts. The firm, which processed more than $60 billion in trading volume in 2025, is supported by backers including Susquehanna Private Equity, CME Ventures, Simplex, C6E and Nexo.

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Amid a persistent bear market, capital constraints and broader risk aversion in crypto markets, the company’s fate remains uncertain. Prolonged freezes on liquidity could damage confidence and hinder institutional participation, echoing patterns seen in previous crypto downturns where lenders faced severe solvency challenges.

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Stripe says Blockchains may need to Process 1B TPS to Support AI Agents

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Stripe says Blockchains may need to Process 1B TPS to Support AI Agents

Financial technology firm Stripe says blockchains may need to process up to 1 billion transactions per second to support the future of artificial intelligence agents. 

In an annual letter posted to X on Tuesday, Stripe CEO and co-founder Patrick Collison and co-founder John Collison gave a rundown of the firm’s performance over 2025, while also making some predictions for the near future. 

One of the key talking points was the adoption of AI agents and what widespread use could look like in the future. The duo argued that blockchain transaction activity will soon skyrocket as AI agents gradually become the primary conductors of online transactions. 

However, the Stripe co-founders said there is a significant infrastructure gap in blockchain and said immense scaling is required to meet this incoming demand. 

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“Last year, a memecoin trading frenzy on one of the major blockchains delayed payouts for one Bridge user by over 12 hours and spiked per-transaction prices 35x. While such operational issues are already significant, they will only intensify, for we expect the appetite for transactions to grow a great deal,” they wrote, adding: 

“In our view, agents will most likely soon be responsible for most internet transactions, and we will likely need blockchains that support more than one million — or even one billion — transactions per second.” 

Source: Stripe

According to data from Chainspect, Internet Computer Protocol and Solana are currently the top two blockchains by transaction speed, with roughly 1,196 and 1,140 transactions per second (TPS), respectively. 

They are the only two on the market currently processing more than 1,000 TPS, and at their peak, they have processed 25,621 TPS and 5,289 TPS, respectively.

As it stands, both networks have a theoretical maximum of only 209,708 TPS and 65,000 TPS, respectively. 

AI commerce is past the “hype phase”  

Alongside their predictions on the incoming demand, the Stripe execs also outlined what the main kinds of use cases AI agents will be serving online. Currently, they said that AI agents have moved beyond a phase of “pure hype” into a time of building and “real-world experimentation.”

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Related: Stripe considers acquiring some or all of PayPal: Report

They outlined five levels of AI agent capabilities. The first two levels include: completing web forms and descriptive search — being able to find results for users based on descriptions of situations rather than specific attributes.   

According to the Stripe execs, AI agents are “hovering on the edge” of levels one and two.