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Polymarket bettors appear to have insider-traded on a market designed to catch insider traders

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PolySights data shows numerous 'high-conviction' bets from newly made wallets. (PolySights)

Can you insider-trade on an investigation into your own insider trading? Polymarket just turned that question from philosophical to practical.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT published findings Thursday morning naming Axiom, a crypto trading platform, as the company whose employees he believed had used non-public information to place profitable trades.

The investigation had been teased for days, and Polymarket had created a contract allowing users to bet on which company would be named, pulling in roughly $40 million in volume since Monday.

The problem is that someone clearly knew the answer before it dropped.

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Lookonchain identified 12 wallets that bet heavily on Axiom before the reveal, netting a combined profit of over $1 million.

A separate analysis by Polysights, a data terminal that tracks suspicious activity on Polymarket’s public ledger, flagged five wallets that collectively wagered around $50,000 and walked away with $266,000.

PolySights data shows numerous 'high-conviction' bets from newly made wallets. (PolySights)

More on-chain data analyzed by CoinDesk tells the full story. The largest Yes holder on the Axiom market, an account called predictorxyz, accumulated 477,415 shares at an average price of $0.14 and is now sitting on $411,000 in profit.

That’s roughly a 7x return on a bet placed before the answer was public. The second-largest holder, an anonymous wallet, bought 109,450 shares at $0.33. The concentration is notable. This wasn’t a broad market full of informed guesses. A handful of wallets dominated the Axiom side of the book.

(Polymarket)

For most of the week, another platform called Meteora had been the market’s frontrunner at over 50% odds, as CoinDesk reported.

The odds swung to Axiom on late Wednesday, which peaked at 46.2%. Anyone buying Axiom shares in the window between that denial and ZachXBT’s Thursday morning publication was either reading the room extremely well or already knew what was coming.

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ZachXBT acknowledged on social media that he had contacted Axiom for comment and conducted several interviews before publishing, making a leak “probably inevitable.”

That means multiple people at the company knew the report was coming before it went live. Any of them could have placed bets directly or tipped someone who did.

Polymarket’s offshore platform doesn’t conduct identity checks, making attribution difficult without cooperation from the exchange itself.

Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” by the findings and would continue to investigate. It didn’t respond to questions about whether it was aware of any employees trading on the Polymarket wager.

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The structural irony here is that the mechanism worked exactly as designed. It just happened to reward the people who were the subject of the investigation rather than the ones conducting it.

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Meta Expands AI Chip Strategy with Google TPU Partnership Following Nvidia and AMD Deals

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META Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • Meta Platforms has finalized a multi-year, billion-dollar agreement with Google to lease Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for artificial intelligence development.
  • The social media giant is negotiating to acquire Google TPUs directly for deployment in its proprietary data centers beginning next year.
  • This partnership comes on the heels of Meta announcing separate long-term chip agreements with both Nvidia and AMD earlier this week.
  • Meta’s agreement with Nvidia encompasses millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPU units, while its AMD contract totals approximately $100 billion across five years.
  • Wall Street analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating on META stock, projecting an average target price of $864.62—representing potential upside of around 31.6%.

Meta Platforms has concluded a remarkably active week in the semiconductor industry, finalizing significant chip procurement agreements with three major players in AI computing: Nvidia, AMD, and most recently, Google.

The most recent arrangement involves Meta leasing Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), specialized chips designed for artificial intelligence workloads. According to The Information’s initial coverage, this multi-year commitment represents a financial commitment in the billions.

Beyond simply renting cloud capacity, Meta is reportedly discussing purchasing Google TPUs outright for installation within its own infrastructure, with deployment potentially beginning as early as next year.

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META Stock Card
Meta Platforms, Inc., META

Developed by Google’s parent corporation, Alphabet, TPUs represent a strategic alternative to Nvidia’s dominant GPU offerings. The chips have increasingly contributed to Google Cloud’s revenue stream, and securing Meta as a customer provides Alphabet with a prestigious reference account.

Alphabet has additionally established a joint venture with a major institutional investor (name undisclosed) focused on TPU leasing arrangements—indicating the tech giant’s commitment to expanding its chip business beyond internal applications.

Meta’s Massive Chip Investment Wave

Just days ago, Meta unveiled an AMD partnership covering 6 gigawatts of computational capacity. Industry analysts estimate this five-year deal at approximately $100 billion in total value.

Under the AMD terms, Meta will become the inaugural recipient of custom-designed MI450 GPUs alongside Venice CPU processors in late 2026. The agreement includes warrants allowing Meta to acquire up to 160 million AMD shares, creating aligned financial incentives between the partners.

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The Nvidia partnership matches this scale of ambition. Meta intends to roll out millions of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell and Rubin GPU architectures, complemented by Grace and Vera central processing units, plus Spectrum-X networking infrastructure. Notably, this represents Nvidia’s first major standalone deployment of Grace CPUs with any client.

Collectively, these three partnerships demonstrate Meta’s aggressive capital deployment strategy aimed at narrowing the competitive gap in artificial intelligence capabilities.

Google Challenges Nvidia’s Market Position

For Google, securing Meta as a TPU client represents a significant milestone in its campaign to challenge Nvidia’s overwhelming market leadership in AI accelerators.

Nvidia shares declined more than 5% following the announcement, while AMD fell over 3%. Alphabet stock dropped approximately 1.76%. Meta, conversely, posted gains of 0.51%.

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Previous reporting this week suggested Google has been actively pursuing strategies to broaden TPU adoption, with several startups already onboard. Nevertheless, the company has encountered manufacturing constraints and tepid interest from major cloud service providers.

Meta’s participation offers Google an opportunity to showcase TPU performance on enterprise-scale, computationally intensive AI applications.

Alphabet’s joint venture with an unnamed institutional partner aims to facilitate TPU leasing operations—a framework that could provide the capital necessary to expand production capacity in response to rising demand.

From an investment perspective, META currently carries a Strong Buy consensus rating on TipRanks, supported by 39 Buy recommendations against 4 Hold ratings. The consensus price target of $864.62 suggests approximately 31.6% appreciation potential from present trading levels.

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Intel (INTC) Shares Slide 3% Following Foundry Leader’s Move to Qualcomm

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INTC Stock Card

TLDR

  • Intel (INTC) declined approximately 3% on Thursday, closing at $45.46 with volume 41% below average
  • Kevin O’Buckley, the SVP and general manager of Intel Foundry Services, departed to join Qualcomm as VP of global operations and supply chain
  • The company revealed a partnership with AI chip startup SambaNova focused on the SN50 inference chip
  • Wall Street consensus remains at “Hold/Reduce” with price targets ranging from $45.74 to $48.21
  • Q4 earnings showed EPS of $0.15, surpassing expectations, though margins remain negative with cautious forward outlook

Shares of Intel (INTC) slipped nearly 3% during Thursday’s session, settling at $45.46 compared to the prior close of $46.88. Volume registered approximately 71 million shares, representing a 41% decline from typical daily levels.


INTC Stock Card
Intel Corporation, INTC

The decline was primarily attributed to a significant personnel change: Kevin O’Buckley, who served as senior vice president and general manager of Intel Foundry Services, has exited the company.

O’Buckley is transitioning to Qualcomm, where he’ll assume the position of vice president of global operations and supply chain. The lateral move between two semiconductor powerhouses triggered immediate market reaction.

Intel acted swiftly to calm investor concerns. The chipmaker emphasized that Intel Foundry continues to be “one of Intel’s highest strategic priorities” and will operate under Naga Chandrasekaran’s leadership, who assumed the top foundry position last year.

The company publicly acknowledged O’Buckley’s contributions and extended best wishes. Official reasons behind his departure remain undisclosed.

Speculation suggests O’Buckley may have previously held a direct reporting relationship with CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Following Intel Foundry’s reorganization, his reporting structure shifted to Chandrasekaran. Whether this organizational change influenced his decision remains unclear.

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Intel’s AI Inference Push

The week brought positive developments as well. Intel unveiled a partnership with AI chip startup SambaNova centered on the company’s latest SN50 inference chip. Intel is also contributing to SambaNova’s current funding round.

This collaboration positions Intel more competitively in the AI inference space, which industry analysts identify as a rapidly expanding, higher-margin segment. The partnership demonstrates Intel’s strategic efforts to establish stronger positioning in AI hardware beyond its core CPU operations.

Regarding financial performance, Intel delivered Q4 EPS of $0.15, exceeding the consensus forecast of $0.08. Revenue reached $13.67 billion, topping analyst projections of $13.37 billion. However, revenue declined 4.2% compared to the previous year.

The forward outlook presents challenges. Intel projected Q1 2026 EPS at zero, while analysts anticipate -$0.11 EPS for the complete fiscal year. The company continues facing negative net margins and negative return on equity.

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Nvidia Eyes Intel’s Turf

Additional competitive dynamics are emerging. Nvidia, following its $5 billion Intel investment in December, is now advancing into the CPU sector — territory Intel has traditionally dominated.

As artificial intelligence firms transition from model training to deployment phases, CPU requirements are increasing. Nvidia aims to capture market share in this segment.

Analyst opinions show divergence. Tigress Financial maintains a Buy rating with a $66 price objective. Conversely, Wedbush holds a Neutral stance with a $30 target. UBS established a $51 target. MarketBeat’s consensus stands at “Reduce” with a $45.74 price target, while TipRanks reports an average of $48.21 based on recent analyst coverage.

Insider transactions show mixed signals. EVP David Zinsner acquired approximately $250,000 in stock during late January. EVP April Miller disposed of $981,000 worth of shares in early February.

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Institutional ownership accounts for 64.53% of INTC shares. The stock’s 50-day moving average stands at $44.26, while the 200-day moving average registers at $37.07.

The consensus analyst price target of $48.21 suggests approximately 6.67% potential upside from current trading levels.

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What Really Happened Before Jack Dorsey Cut 40% of Block?

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Block Stock (XYZ) Performance

Reports reveal that Jack Dorsey’s September 2025 in-person company event cost a staggering $68.1 million, roughly equivalent to the annual payroll for 200 employees, only to be followed five months later by layoffs slashing 40% of Block’s workforce.

The sequence of events draws criticism, sparking a broader conversation about AI, corporate culture, and fiscal responsibility. The Twitter co-founder turned Block CEO remains in the headlines over corporate strategy in Silicon Valley.

Block’s $68 Million Party, 4,000 Layoffs, and the AI Excuse: Did Jack Dorsey Just Redraw Silicon Valley’s Playbook?

According to Dorsey, the choice was between a gradual reduction that could undermine morale and a decisive, single cut that would position Block to grow “on our own terms.”

He framed the layoffs as a forward-looking pivot toward AI and agentic workflows, claiming in a company-wide note: “100 people + AI = 1,000 people.” According to the Twitter co-founder, intelligence tools paired with smaller, flatter teams enable a new, accelerated model of operations.

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Wall Street responded with immediate approval, with Block’s XYZ stock surging 20–23% within an hour, adding approximately $6 billion in market capitalization. This translates to roughly $1.5 million in enterprise value per eliminated role.

Block Stock (XYZ) Performance
Block Stock (XYZ) Performance. Source: Google Finance 

Block’s $68 Million Party Draws Criticism

Meanwhile, Jack Dorsey has sparked outrage and debate with a spectacle that many critics say redefines corporate norms.

In September 2025, the former Twitter CEO reportedly spent $68.1 million on a Block in-person event, an amount roughly equal to the annual payroll of 200 employees.

The three-day festival in downtown Oakland featured performances by Jay-Z, Anderson .Paak, T-Pain, and Soulja Boy, and brought 8,000 employees from around the globe.

The party, recorded in Block’s own earnings as a $68.1 million increase in general and administrative expenses, has drawn widespread criticism.

Social media users described it as “psycho” and “crazy,” with some pointing to the stark contrast between celebration and accountability, particularly in light of the layoffs that followed.

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To some, the spectacle of the $68 million party followed by mass layoffs sends a troubling message about priorities and managerial judgment.

It highlights the dangers of pandemic-era overexpansion and executive indulgence, with some critics arguing that the layoffs were a correction of years of overhiring and mismanagement.

“Yes, we over-hired during COVID because I incorrectly built 2 separate company structures (Square & Cash App) rather than 1, which we corrected mid-2024. But this misses all the complexity we took on through lending, banking, and BNPL. And that we’re now targeting $2M+ gross profit per person, 4x our pre-COVID efficiency, which stayed flat at ~$500k from 2019 until 2024. We have and do run an efficient company… better than most,” Dorsey responded.

Meanwhile, others see the layoffs as AI-washing, a convenient cover for structural inefficiencies.

“Sam Altman previously stated that ‘some firms are attributing job cuts to AI, when in reality, those layoffs were already planned or would have occurred regardless.’ He describes this, along with other exaggerations of AI capabilities, as “AI washing”… a tactic aimed at masking business issues. Just saying,” noted Graham Stephan.

Notwithstanding, Coinbase’s first CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, suggests that it signals a broader shift in tech toward AI-driven productivity and smaller teams.

Block’s severance packages, including 20 weeks’ pay, six months of healthcare, equity, and $5,000 in transition support, were generous by tech standards.

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Trescon marks 10 years building MENA government-backed platforms

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Trescon marks 10 years building MENA government-backed platforms

Trescon marks 10 years, delivering 500+ government-backed events and scaling from Bengaluru to Dubai-led MEASA expansion.

Summary

  • Founded in 2016 in Bengaluru, Trescon now runs 500+ events across 10+ countries, connecting 250k+ attendees and 3.5k+ investors.
  • Dubai FinTech Summit under Dubai Future Finance Week has grown past 9,000 participants, cementing Trescon as a key DIFC partner.
  • The firm is expanding from Dubai into Riyadh, Saudi, ASEAN and African markets with new AI, cybersecurity, STEM and deeptech platforms.

Trescon, a business events company, has marked its 10-year anniversary as a provider of government-backed business platforms in the Middle East and North Africa region, the company announced.

The company was founded in Bengaluru in 2016 by Mohammed Saleem, Mithun Shetty and Swarnavo Roy, according to company records. Trescon established its UAE office in 2021, designating Dubai as its regional headquarters.

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The firm currently manages four events within Dubai Future Finance Week, organized by the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC): Dubai FinTech Summit, Future Sustainability Forum, Future Islamic Finance Forum, and Reg3 Forum, according to the company.

The Dubai FinTech Summit has grown to more than 9,000 participants, according to event data. Trescon has also provided services for government initiatives including the World Police Summit organized by Dubai Police and Dubai Future Forum organized by Dubai Future Foundation.

Over the past decade, the company has delivered more than 500 events globally across 10-plus countries, attracted over 250,000 attendees, generated more than 1 million business connections, and engaged over 3,500 investors, according to company figures.

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The company’s leadership team includes Madhukar Dudda, Ummer Shameem, Sanjiv Singh, Anil Kumar, Edward Maben, Christine Davidson, Vimal Bhat and Naveen Bharadwaj, who oversee more than 250 professionals across international offices, according to the company.

“With government-entrusted flagship platforms, delivery must be flawless. At this level, the organiser’s credibility and the government’s reputation are inseparable,” Mohammed Saleem stated.

The company has expanded operations to Riyadh and is pursuing growth in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and African markets including Mauritius, according to the announcement. Trescon is developing platforms focused on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, STEM and deeptech sectors.

“As we enter our second decade, we are scaling that framework across high-growth economies aligned with future technologies, sustainability and capacity building,” Naveen Bharadwaj stated.

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Trescon operates with six business divisions across seven global offices. The company’s portfolio includes managed events under Dubai Future Finance Week, alongside event brands including World AI Show, HODL, DATE, CARE for Sustainability and the World FinTech Show, according to company information.

The company focuses on mid-to-large scale leadership platforms, typically hosting 3,000 to 10,000 senior stakeholders, according to its business model description.

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MARA Posts $1.7B Q4 Loss as Bitcoin Slump Hits Earnings

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MARA Posts $1.7B Q4 Loss as Bitcoin Slump Hits Earnings

MARA Holdings (MARA) reported a fourth quarter 2025 net loss of $1.71 billion, or $4.52 per diluted share, compared with net income of $528.3 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, in the same period a year earlier. 

Its shareholder letter filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said revenue in Q4 fell 6% to $202.3 million from $214.4 million in Q4 of 2024, as a lower average Bitcoin (BTC) price outweighed the impact of a higher hashrate. 

For the full year 2025, Marathon booked a net loss of $1.31 billion, compared with net income of $541 million in 2024, even though its revenue rose to $907.1 million from $656.4 million a year earlier.

MARA Key Highlights 2025. Source: SEC

​The company said that its Q4 net income was hit by a $1.50 billion negative change in the fair value of digital assets and digital assets receivable, reflecting the decline in Bitcoin’s price from around $114,300 on Sept. 30 to roughly $88,800 on Dec. 31, according to data from CoinGecko.

The company’s share price also took a beating, with MARA stock down 46% in the past six months.

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MARA stock down 46%. Source: Yahoo Finance

On the production side, Marathon said that it mined 2,011 BTC in Q4 2025, down 6% from 2,144 BTC in the prior quarter and 2,492 BTC in the year-earlier period, and 8,799 BTC for the full year, compared with 9,430 BTC in 2024. 

Related: Bitdeer sells all Bitcoin, Metaplanet rejects misconduct claims: Asia Express

The company said that it ended 2025 holding 53,822 BTC, including 15,315 BTC loaned or pledged as collateral, with its balance sheet BTC valued at about $4.7 billion at a quarter‑end spot price of $87,498 per coin.

​Marathon’s AI and high‑performance compute push

Alongside the numbers, Marathon used its Q4 shareholder letter to outline a multi‑year shift “from a pure‑play Bitcoin miner into an energy and digital infrastructure company,” announcing a strategic joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop artificial intelligence (AI) and high‑performance compute (HPC) data centers at its power‑rich sites.

Marathon said that the Starwood partnership was designed to support more than 1 gigawatt of IT capacity in its initial phase, with a roadmap that could extend above 2.5 gigawatts over time, and giving Marathon the option to invest up to 50% in individual projects while continuing to mine where power remains attractive.

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​The company also highlighted its acquisition of a 64% stake in Exaion in February to target “sovereign‑grade” and enterprise AI deployments.

​Miners diverge on strategy as drawdown bites

Marathon’s hybrid approach comes as other major miners continue to experiment with different playbooks in response to the latest Bitcoin drawdown. 

Hut 8 reported a fourth‑quarter net loss of $279.7 million on Wednesday, as it leans into a $7 billion AI data center lease, while Trump‑backed American Bitcoin reported a $59.5 million Q4 2025 loss on Thursday, yet continues to double down on its mine-and-hoard BTC model.

Magazine: South Korea gets rich from crypto… North Korea gets weapons

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