TLDR

• Bank of America, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley recommend allocating 1% to 5% of portfolios to Bitcoin.
• River reported that major institutions now treat Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier.
• BlackRock advises limiting Bitcoin exposure to between 1% and 2% of total assets.
• JPMorgan analysts project Bitcoin could reach $266,000 if it rivals private gold investment.
• Bitcoin traded at $67,441 after falling 47% from its October peak of $126,080.

Major Wall Street firms now advise clients to hold small Bitcoin stakes within diversified portfolios. Fidelity Investments, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley recommend allocations between 1% and 5%. These recommendations formalize Bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier rather than a speculative trade.

River reported that several large institutions issued formal guidance on crypto exposure. The firms outlined allocation ranges that limit risk while allowing participation in price gains. Their guidance reflects structured portfolio models used in wealth management divisions.

Fidelity Investments advises clients to allocate between 2% and 5% to crypto assets, including Bitcoin. Bank of America recommends a 1% to 4% allocation range for diversified portfolios. Morgan Stanley suggests clients hold up to 4% in Bitcoin exposure.

Bank of America and Peers Outline Bitcoin Stakes Strategy

Bank of America placed Bitcoin within its alternative asset framework for private clients. The bank set allocation guidance between 1% and 4% of total portfolio value. The firm structured the guidance around volatility controls and diversification targets.

Fidelity Investments provided a higher allocation band of 2% to 5% for wealth clients. Morgan Stanley capped its recommended exposure level at 4%. BlackRock advised a narrower 1% to 2% range for Bitcoin holdings.

WisdomTree and JPMorgan Chase limited their recommendations to allocations of up to 1%. River compiled these figures in its institutional allocation report. The report described Bitcoin as a diversifier within multi-asset portfolios.

The firms structured their models to balance upside exposure with portfolio stability. They kept allocations limited to preserve overall asset mix targets. The guidance reflects internal research and asset allocation committees.

Price Levels and Long-Term Projections

Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,080 in October last year. The price later declined by 47% from that peak. CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin trading at $67,441 at the time of reporting.

Despite the price decline, several institutions published long-term projections. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Bitcoin could reach $700,000 per coin. He cited concerns about currency debasement and global financial instability.

Fidelity issued an earlier projection in September 2021. The firm estimated Bitcoin could reach $1 billion per coin by 2038. Jurrien Timmer supported that estimate using stock-to-flow and demand models.

JPMorgan analysts projected Bitcoin could reach $266,000 over time. They based the estimate on Bitcoin competing with gold as a store of value. Analysts compared private-sector gold investment totals with Bitcoin’s market capitalization.

JPMorgan stated that gold outperformed Bitcoin since last October. Analysts reported that the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio fell to about 1.5. They described that level as a record low in their research note.

The bank said Bitcoin would need an $8 trillion market capitalization to reach $266,000. Analysts excluded central bank gold holdings from that comparison.

Few major commodities have displayed the kind of price volatility Palladium has since 2020. After a wild ride, boom and bust included, the price of the metal approaches a key area that will help determine its medium- and long-term outlook. 

In the space of just a few years, the metal surged above $3,400 during a supply-driven panic, only to collapse back toward $1,000 as industrial fears, substitution dynamics and the electric vehicle transition narrative took hold. 

The amplitude of that move rivals some of the most dramatic commodity cycles of the past two decades. 

From Scarcity Panic to Structural Unwind 

The 2020-2022 rally was fuelled by a perfect storm: tight supply, heavy reliance on Russian production, strong autocatalyst demand, and limited above-ground inventories. 

When geopolitical tensions intensified, the scarcity premium exploded. 

But blow-offs rarely stabilise gently. 

Once peak fear subsided and EV adoption accelerated, the narrative flipped. Investors began pricing a future where internal combustion

engine demand gradually erodes and platinum substitution gains traction. 

As that theme gathered momentum, palladium retraced violently. 

By late 2023 and into 2024, the market looked washed out. 

Volatility and Reset 

The decline toward the $1,000-$1,100 zone coincided with extreme pessimism. 

Sentiment shifted from “structural shortage” to “structural obsolescence” in less than 24 months. That kind of narrative swing is typically accompanied by positioning liquidation, and price action reflected it. 

Technically, the metal moved back toward long-term support levels that had anchored prior cycles. Momentum indicators reset and volatility compressed. The excess was purged.

2025-2026: Reclaim Phase Underway? 

Over the past year, price behaviour has changed meaningfully. 

Palladium has reclaimed medium- and long-term moving averages on the weekly and monthly timeframes. Higher lows have begun to form. Momentum has improved without yet reaching euphoric territory. 

This rally is not a parabolic breakout, but base construction. 

The key zone to watch sits around $1,900-$2,000. A sustained move above that area would mark a structural shift in the longer-term chart and challenge the prevailing “terminal decline” narrative. 

Until then, the metal remains in recovery mode, not full revival.

What Drives Palladium? 

Unlike Gold, Palladium is not a monetary hedge. It is tied primarily to industrial demand, particularly autocatalysts used in internal combustion and hybrid vehicles. 

That means the macro drivers are different: 

● Global auto production trends 

● China’s manufacturing cycle 

● US consumer resilience 

● Platinum substitution dynamics 

● Russian supply concentration 

● The US Dollar trend 

If global manufacturing stabilises and hybrid vehicle demand remains robust, Palladium retains its demand base. If the US Dollar softens and industrial sentiment improves, the cyclical tailwind strengthens. 

But the structural headwind from electrification remains. This dynamic is precisely what sustains volatility. 

Technical Outlook: Compression Before Expansion?

From a chart perspective, Palladium no longer looks like a market in freefall. Instead, it appears to be shifting from liquidation mode into something more constructive. 

On the monthly chart, price has managed to climb back above its 55-month moving average and is now pressing up against the 100-month average in the $1,600-$1,700 area. 

That may sound technical, but in simple terms it means the metal is rebuilding above levels that had previously defined the long slide. 

Momentum has also turned. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which collapsed during the 2023 washout, has recovered steadily and is now moving back toward bullish territory. 

Taken together, the longer-term picture looks less like structural decay and more like a market trying to form a durable base. 

On the weekly chart, higher lows have begun to form since the $1,000 floor held. The trend strength indicators are expanding again, signalling that directional conviction is returning after a prolonged period of compression. 

Price is now approaching a key resistance band between $1,900 and $2,000, a zone that previously acted as a distribution during the early stages of the collapse. 

A sustained weekly break above that area would materially alter the medium-term outlook and likely trigger a reassessment of the “terminal decline” narrative. 

After a big jump, Palladium has settled into a holding pattern around the $1,750-$1,800 area on the daily chart.

The move up has stopped in a fairly orderly way instead of getting too hot. Momentum indicators remain in the middle range, indicating that the market is retaining its gains rather than losing momentum. 

For now, the $1,700 to $1,720 range serves as a near-term cushion. On the upside, a convincing break above $1,850 would signal that buyers are ready to press the recovery further.

Until one of those levels gives way, the metal looks more like it is coiling than collapsing. 

In short, the technical picture aligns with the broader macro narrative: the worst of the decline appears to be behind us, but confirmation of a new structural leg higher requires a decisive break above the $1,900-$2,000 region.

Until then, Palladium remains a rebuilding story: volatile, sensitive to macro inputs, and poised at an inflection point rather than in a confirmed breakout. 

In a market defined by extremes, Palladium may once again be preparing for a decisive move; the only question is whether conviction ultimately resolves higher or whether volatility reasserts itself before a true structural recovery takes hold. 

Crypto investment firm Paradigm is seeking to raise $1.5 billion for a new fund that will invest in companies in AI, robotics and other frontier technologies, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

Paradigm will continue to invest in crypto companies, according to sources familiar with the situation, but it will use its existing technical investment team to look at deals in frontier tech companies, they said. 

San Francisco–based Paradigm has $12.7 billion in assets under management, according to the latest regulatory filings. 

It launched its flagship $2.5 billion fund in November 2021, which was the largest crypto fund in history at the time. It publicly announced its third fund in 2024 — an $850 million venture fund focused on early-stage crypto projects. 

According to the WSJ’s sources, the firm’s managers decided they didn’t want to be restricted in ways that could cause them to miss out on attractive deals. 

There is also overlap between crypto and AI, such as agentic payments, or transactions made by autonomous AI agents, the person said. 

Paradigm exploring AI as early as 2023

Paradigm acknowledged it had been “tinkering” with AI and its convergence with crypto as early as three years ago. 

In 2023, Paradigm was seen removing Web3 and crypto-specific language from its website, prompting some speculators to suggest it was already pivoting from crypto to AI. 

Matt Huang, the co-founder and managing partner of Paradigm, denied at the time that the website changes reflected a shift away from crypto, but acknowledged that the team had been exploring AI. 

In a lengthier tweet weeks later, Huang said that while “we’ve never been more excited about crypto and continue to invest across all stages,” the “developments in AI are too interesting to ignore.” 

“It seems trendy to frame crypto vs AI as a zero-sum competition. But we don’t buy it. Both are interesting and will have plenty of overlap. We’re excited to continue exploring,” he said. 

Earlier this month, Paradigm and OpenAI released EVMbench, a new benchmark evaluating how different AI models can detect and patch security vulnerabilities found in smart contracts.

AI made up more than half of all VC funding in 2025

In 2025, venture capital investments in AI firms amounted to $258.7 billion, accounting for 61% of all VC investment and doubling its share from 2022, according to OECD. 

VC funding for generative AI firms made up 14% of all AI venture capital investments, with firms in the United States attracting the largest share of VC funding. 

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