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Tehran Under Fire: Breaking Down the Joint Israel-US Military Operation

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

Quick Summary

  • On February 28, 2026, Israel executed a coordinated “pre-emptive strike” against Iran alongside US forces
  • President Trump announced “major combat operations” were active in Iranian territory
  • Iranian authorities shut down national airspace and vowed “crushing” retaliation
  • Supreme Leader Khamenei was evacuated from Tehran to an undisclosed secure facility
  • Washington simultaneously added Iran to its “state sponsor of wrongful detention” list

On February 28, 2026, Israel executed a coordinated pre-emptive military operation against Iranian targets. A senior Israeli defence official speaking to Reuters confirmed the attack was synchronized with United States forces.

President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged American involvement, stating the United States had initiated “major combat operations” on Iranian soil. CNN’s reporting indicated the strikes concentrated on Iranian military installations.

According to the Israeli defence official, operational planning extended across several months. The specific execution date was finalized weeks before the actual strikes commenced.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz made the official strike announcement while simultaneously implementing emergency protocols throughout Israel. Officials cited expectations of Iranian counter-strikes as justification for the emergency measures.

Around 08:15 local time, warning sirens activated throughout Israeli territory. Citizens received emergency mobile notifications characterizing the situation as an “extremely serious” security threat.

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Journalists from AFP stationed in Tehran documented two powerful explosions. Dense smoke columns rose from central and eastern sections of Iran’s capital city.

According to Iran’s Fars news agency, the “type of explosions suggests a missile attack.” Iranian officials have not yet released comprehensive damage assessments.

Following the explosions, Iranian aviation authorities ordered a complete national airspace shutdown. The Civil Aviation Organisation issued the closure directive “until further notice.”

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Tehran’s Reaction and Command Structure

A senior Iranian official informed Reuters that Tehran is organizing a “crushing” counter-offensive. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was transported from Tehran to a protected location outside the capital.

These military actions occurred approximately eight months after a 12-day aerial conflict between Israeli and Iranian forces in June 2025. Both Washington and Jerusalem had issued multiple warnings about potential strikes should Iran persist with its nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile development.

Washington’s Detention Designation

Coinciding with the military strikes, the United States formally classified Iran as a “state sponsor of wrongful detention.” Iran became the inaugural nation added to this sanctions list, established through a Trump executive order issued in September 2025.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly demanded Iran release all detained American citizens. He indicated future possibilities include invalidating US passport travel authorization to Iran.

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Trump additionally declared his objective of eliminating all uranium enrichment activities in Iran, including civilian nuclear programs. This statement followed indirect diplomatic discussions between US and Iranian representatives in Geneva, where both delegations reported constructive progress.

Oman’s Foreign Minister revealed that Iranian negotiators committed during Geneva talks to permanently cease enriched uranium stockpiling. He characterized this commitment as a significant diplomatic achievement with potential to avert broader conflict.

On Friday, Trump stated he hadn’t reached a “final decision” regarding military action. By Saturday morning, operations had commenced.

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Lockheed Martin Shares Jump 2.7% Following Military Contract Announcements

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LMT Stock Card

TLDR

  • Lockheed Martin shares gained 2.7% during Friday’s session, climbing to approximately $659 with trading volume surging 34% above typical levels.
  • Fourth-quarter revenue exceeded forecasts at $20.32B versus the expected $19.84B, though earnings per share fell short at $5.80 compared to the $6.33 consensus.
  • Successful testing of Lockheed’s Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) platform by the U.S. Army, with additional testing scheduled for April 2026.
  • The company received an $18.8M contract modification from the U.S. Navy for continued work on the Trident II (D5) Life Extension 2 initiative, extending through August 2030.
  • Shares have surged more than 31% since the start of the year, approaching record territory, while the company announced a $3.45 quarterly dividend payment.

Shares of Lockheed Martin (LMT) advanced 2.7% in Friday’s trading session, touching an intraday peak of $662.47 before closing near $659.24. This represented a notable jump from the prior session’s close at $641.63.


LMT Stock Card
Lockheed Martin Corporation, LMT

Trading activity was notably robust. Approximately 2.59 million shares exchanged hands, representing a 34% increase compared to the typical daily volume of around 1.93 million shares.

The upward momentum followed announcements of two distinct military contract developments within the same week, further cementing LMT’s critical role as a primary defense supplier to the U.S. military.

The U.S. Army wrapped up prototype testing of Lockheed’s Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) platform with the 25th Infantry Division. This advanced system integrates sensor information directly with weapons platforms, enabling military personnel to detect and neutralize threats more rapidly.

This “sensor-to-shooter” functionality represents a crucial element of contemporary combat operations. Insights gained from this recent evaluation are already informing platform improvements, with additional testing scheduled for April 2026 as part of the “Lightning Surge 3” field exercise.

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Meanwhile, Lockheed was awarded an $18.8 million contract modification related to the Trident II (D5) Life Extension 2 initiative. This program supports the nation’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent capabilities, with work continuing through August 30, 2030.

The majority of activities will take place at Lockheed’s Alabama facility in Huntsville. While the contract value may appear modest in isolation, the extended timeline and strategic significance of the program carry considerable weight with market participants.

Q4 Earnings: Revenue Beat, EPS Miss

LMT’s latest quarterly financial report, released January 29, revealed revenue of $20.32 billion compared to analyst projections of $19.84 billion — exceeding expectations by approximately $480 million. This represented a 9.1% increase from the prior-year period.

Earnings per share registered at $5.80, falling short of the $6.33 consensus estimate by $0.53. The company had delivered $7.67 EPS during the comparable quarter one year earlier.

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Wall Street analysts are projecting full-year EPS of $27.15 for the ongoing fiscal period.

Analyst Targets and Dividend

Numerous analysts have adjusted their price targets higher in recent weeks. Citigroup increased its target from $592 to $673, while keeping a “neutral” stance. RBC Capital Markets raised its target from $615 to $650 with a “sector perform” designation. Robert W. Baird moved to $640 while maintaining an “outperform” rating.

The consensus view from MarketBeat shows a “Hold” recommendation with an average price target of $612.50 — notably beneath current trading levels.

Lockheed announced a quarterly dividend of $3.45 per share, scheduled for payment on March 27 to investors on record as of March 2. This translates to an annualized dividend of $13.80, producing a yield of approximately 2.1%. The company’s payout ratio currently stands at 64.22%.

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The defense contractor carries a market capitalization of $151.68 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.68 and a beta coefficient of 0.23. The stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $578.05, while the 200-day moving average is $508.04.

LMT has climbed more than 31% since the beginning of the year and is trading in proximity to record highs. Institutional ownership accounts for 74.19% of outstanding shares.

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Not the Bottom Yet? CryptoQuant Data Exposes Bitcoin’s Brutal Deleveraging

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How Will Markets React to $3B Crypto Options Expiring Today?


The combination of both metrics suggests the current regime is consolidative or mid-cycle bearish, with definitive capitulation likely to occur soon.

Current market dynamics point to a reset in motion, with Bitcoin undergoing deleveraging. However, the leading digital asset is yet to form a bottom for this bear cycle, despite cooling market conditions.

According to a report from CryptoQuant, metrics such as falling open interest and Bitcoin basis compression on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicate ongoing deleveraging.

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More Pain For BTC?

The CME basis compression is a futures yield curve that reflects demand for leveraged long exposure. The curve has been in a downward trend since 2025, following patterns that preceded the 2019 and 2022 bear markets. However, the slope remains positive to this day. While the curve’s current slope suggests leverage demand and risk appetite are cooling, the market has not yet reached conditions historically associated with capitulations. It confirms gradual ongoing deleveraging, but not capitulation.

The yield curve compression currently signals weaker demand for leveraged long exposure, as market participants become less willing to pay a premium for bitcoin (BTC) exposure. This points to weakening bullish conviction and a more neutral or bearish backdrop. However, longer-dated contracts are still trading at a premium to spot and short-dated futures.

In essence, the curve reflects an environment where price rallies may face resistance until a definitive cyclical bottom forms. Past cycle bottoms have formed only when the yield curve slope turned negative, signaling backwardation and acute deleveraging. This means that BTC still has more downside to come.

Cyclical Bottom Coming Soon

Additional proof that the Bitcoin market is undergoing a gradual reset in positioning rather than the acute stress needed to form a bottom is the decline in futures open interest. This metric has fallen sharply from its 2025 peak, following a trend seen during the 2022 bear market.

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CryptoQuant found that the CME Bitcoin futures open interest has plummeted by 47%, similar to the 45% plunge witnessed in 2022. Such a move reflects a major unwind of leveraged positions following a period of increased participation. This unwind is characterized by prolonged liquidation, reduced speculative demand, and lower hedging activity, confirming an ongoing deleveraging cycle.

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The combination of a declining open interest and a positive yield curve suggests the current regime is consolidative or mid-cycle bearish, with definitive capitulation likely to occur soon.

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BTC tries to reclaim $64,000 as funding rates hit three month low

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BTC Open Interest (Coinglass)

Bitcoin is looking to reclaim $64,000 on possible short squeeze after earlier falling to as low as $63,000 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

At the same time, perpetual futures funding rates dropped to -6%, according to CoinGlass, marking the second lowest level in the past three months. The last time funding was this negative was on Feb. 6, when bitcoin bottomed near $60,000.

Perpetual funding rates represent the periodic payments exchanged between traders in perpetual futures markets. When rates are positive, traders holding long positions pay those holding shorts. When rates turn negative, shorts pay longs.

Deeply negative funding typically signals aggressive short positioning and bearish sentiment, as traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain downside bets.

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Meanwhile, coin margined open interest rose from 668,000 BTC to 687,000 BTC over the past 24 hours.

Measuring open interest in BTC terms removes the distortion caused by price swings. Rising open interest alongside negative funding suggests growing participation, with an increasing share of traders positioned for further downside.

In the past 24 hours, more than $500 million in crypto positions have been liquidated, according to CoinGlass data. The bulk of those liquidations were long positions, which accounted for over $420 million, highlighting the scale of forced selling as prices moved lower.

BTC Open Interest (Coinglass)
BTC Open Interest (Coinglass)

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Tether Freezes $4.2B in USDT Linked to Crime in 3 Years: Report

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Tether Freezes $4.2B in USDT Linked to Crime in 3 Years: Report

Stablecoin issuer Tether has reportedly frozen roughly $4.2 billion worth of its USDt tokens connected to suspected criminal activity over the past three years.

Most of the blocked funds were restricted since 2023, as regulators and law enforcement agencies intensified scrutiny of crypto-related fraud and sanctions evasion, the El Salvador-based firm reportedly told Reuters on Friday.

Tether’s dollar-pegged USDt (USDT) token is the largest stablecoin in circulation, with more than $180 billion outstanding, up sharply from about $70 billion three years ago.

Tether can freeze tokens directly on the blockchain by blacklisting wallet addresses when requested by authorities.

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Related: Tether-backed Oobit adds crypto-to-bank transfers for local payment networks

Tether helps governments freeze funds

On Tuesday, Tether announced that it has assisted the US Department of Justice in seizing nearly $61 million in USDt tied to “pig-butchering” scams, a scheme in which criminals build relationships with victims before persuading them to send money.

Earlier this month, the company also froze approximately $544 million in cryptocurrency at the request of Turkish authorities, blocking funds tied to an alleged illegal online betting and money-laundering operation.

According to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, by late 2025, stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle had blacklisted around 5,700 wallets holding about $2.5 billion, with roughly three-quarters of the addresses containing USDt when they were frozen.

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Related: Tether USDT supply set for biggest monthly decline since 2022 FTX collapse

USDt supply shrinks

As Cointelegraph reported, USDt is on track for its largest monthly supply drop in three years, with circulating supply falling about $1.5 billion in February after a $1.2 billion decline in January, according to blockchain data. The contraction echoes the period following the FTX collapse in late 2022 and may point to tighter liquidity in crypto markets.

USDt market cap drops in past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Tether said the figures reflect short-term distribution changes rather than weakening demand, noting USDC (USDC) also saw a multibillion-dollar reduction during the same period.

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