Crypto World
Bitcoin Faces FOMC Test as Past Meetings Trigger Sharp Selloffs
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Bitcoin remains rangebound below $90,000, hovering near one-month lows, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
Market focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, with policymakers expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
While a pause is largely priced in, traders are looking closely at the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the timing of potential rate cuts and the central bank’s inflation outlook.
Any shift in Powell’s tone could influence broader risk sentiment and liquidity.
How Bitcoin ($BTC) Is Likely to React to the FOMC Meeting: Lessons From Past Cycles
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) plays a critical role in shaping global financial markets by setting U.S. monetary policy.
With eight scheduled meetings each year, its decisions on interest rates directly influence liquidity, risk appetite, and capital flows across assets, including Bitcoin.
As markets look ahead to the conclusion of the first FOMC meeting on Wednesday, expectations for a January rate cut remain extremely low at just 2.8%. This suggests that monetary easing is unlikely in the near term, keeping financial conditions relatively tight.
Historical data from 2025 offers important context for how Bitcoin tends to react around these events. Out of eight FOMC meetings, Bitcoin’s price declined after seven, with only one producing a short-lived rally.
The drawdowns were often sharp, ranging from –6% to –29%, while BTC only rallied in May, with a +15% move before momentum faded.
HOW BITCOIN $BTC WILL REACT TO FOMC MEETING, LAST TIME IT DROPPED BY -9%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting US monetary policy, meeting eight times a year to decide interest rates that shape liquidity conditions across global markets.
Looking… pic.twitter.com/YBVr0fBXxn
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) January 27, 2026
A key takeaway from the historical data is that FOMC weeks have consistently brought heightened volatility and a risk of a BTC price drop. While markets often rally ahead of meetings on hopes of dovish signals, the post-announcement reaction has leaned bearish in most cases.
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Crypto World
OKX CEO Rips CZ Bitcoin Story as Dispute Escalates
The Narrative of Questions around Investment
Xu said that Zhao frequently revisits the tale of selling property to amass Bitcoin, but there are important details that remain vague.
He also doubted whether this property belonged to Zhao or how it was initially financed.
Zhao had previously clarified that he sold an apartment at an approximate price of 900,000 and used the money to purchase Bitcoin at an average price of 600.
Therefore, Xu’s statements question the accuracy of the account but introduce a new challenge to the chronology.
The Conflict over Personal Life
The conflict spread beyond investment claims, with Xu mentioning Zhao’s personal life, including his divorce.
Xu proposed that Zhao might have provided biased information as he crafted a social identity for his financial choices.
Zhao replied by confirming that he had divorced and that he would not disclose legal documents to respect privacy.
He further insisted that his public pronouncements remain valid despite the criticism.
The Escalation and Legal Bet
The situation grew tense when Zhao made a 1-billion-dollar bet to prove his words about the divorce.
Moreover, he even volunteered to undergo legal verification should Xu agree to participate in the bet.
Xu did not accept the strategy and said that such a publicly declared bet was not befitting the leaders of controlled firms.
Therefore, he cast doubt on how such activities would be perceived by regulators of a high-profile exchange executive.
The Wider Context and Ongoing Dispute
The dispute is part of a wider struggle that can be traced back to earlier conflicts over business transactions and accusations.
In addition, Zhao has addressed past allegations in his book and refuted them, citing critics.
Moreover, both individuals continue to clash in the media, and the conflict remains ongoing in the crypto industry.
Therefore, the scenario underscores the ongoing conflict between major exchange executives as competition rises.
Crypto World
Trump Imposes Naval Blockade on Strait of Hormuz After Iran Talks Fail
Key Points
- Diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran concluded after 21 hours without agreement in Pakistan
- Nuclear weapons development remained the central sticking point, according to Vice President JD Vance
- President Trump directed immediate naval blockade operations in the Strait of Hormuz
- Approximately 20% of worldwide petroleum and LNG shipments transit through the strategic waterway
- Energy commodity prices anticipated to surge when trading begins Monday
Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran concluded without resolution on Sunday in Islamabad, Pakistan, as 21 hours of intensive negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough on fundamental disagreements.
The American negotiating team, headed by Vice President JD Vance, cited Iran’s unwillingness to halt its nuclear weapons development as the primary obstacle to reaching an accord.
“Our non-negotiable requirements have been communicated with absolute clarity, and they have declined to meet our conditions,” Vance stated to journalists in Islamabad during the early hours of Sunday.
Tehran’s diplomatic representatives characterized the outcome differently, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei noting that complex international disputes require multiple rounds of engagement. He emphasized that “diplomatic channels remain open” for continued dialogue.
The negotiating agenda encompassed three critical issues: governance of the Strait of Hormuz passage, extending the temporary ceasefire agreement, and implementing a graduated sanctions reduction framework. Iranian semi-official news outlets characterized American proposals as “unreasonable.”
Since hostilities between the United States and Israel commenced in late February, Iran has effectively halted maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint facilitates roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation worldwide.
On Sunday, two unladen oil tankers attempted passage through the strait but reversed course precisely when the diplomatic talks concluded.
Presidential Order for Naval Interdiction
Following the diplomatic breakdown, President Trump announced via Truth Social that U.S. naval forces would commence blockade operations in the Strait of Hormuz without delay.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote.
Trump additionally declared that American naval vessels would detain any ship operating in international waters that had submitted payment to Iranian authorities. “No vessel paying an illegitimate fee will receive safe passage through these waters,” he stated.
The President characterized the diplomatic session as productive overall, noting that “most points were agreed,” while acknowledging the insurmountable divide concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Energy Markets Prepare for Volatility
Market observers predict substantial increases in petroleum and natural gas valuations when trading commences Monday. Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney, noted growing optimism last week preceding the negotiations.
“This could set us back to levels that we were trading at prior to the ceasefire announcement,” Twidale said. “I would think we will see oil open higher alongside the dollar.”
The recently established two-week ceasefire now appears increasingly unstable. Pakistani officials, who facilitated the discussions, described them as “constructive” and pledged ongoing mediation support.
Casualties from the conflict have exceeded 5,600 across Iran, Lebanon, and surrounding territories. U.S. Central Command reports thirteen American military personnel have been killed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advocated for the removal of enriched nuclear materials from Iranian facilities regardless of whether diplomatic agreements materialize.
Crypto World
Three AI Chip Stocks Trading Below Their Potential: Micron (MU), AMD, and TSMC (TSM)
Key Highlights
- Micron’s Q2 fiscal 2026 quarterly sales surged nearly 200% compared to the prior year, with records set in all divisions
- AMD delivered $10.3 billion in Q4 2025 sales, marking a 34% jump year-over-year alongside a 57% non-GAAP gross margin
- TSMC forecasts approximately 30% revenue expansion in 2026 when measured in U.S. dollars
- Despite strong AI exposure, these three companies maintain more modest price-to-earnings multiples than leading AI chipmakers
- TSMC anticipates its AI accelerator division will expand at a compound annual rate in the mid-40 percent range through 2029
Three semiconductor powerhouses—Micron, AMD, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing—are riding the artificial intelligence wave with impressive momentum. Yet despite robust financial performance and accelerating growth trajectories, market analysts suggest these stocks may be undervalued relative to their sector peers.
The ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure has created surging demand across the semiconductor supply chain, from specialized memory modules to cutting-edge processors and advanced fabrication services. While these companies occupy distinct positions within this ecosystem, they share a compelling characteristic: substantial revenue acceleration without the elevated valuation multiples commanded by other AI-focused names.
Micron: Transforming from Commodity Memory to Critical AI Component
Micron has undergone a remarkable repositioning in investor perception, evolving from a cyclical commodity producer into an essential AI infrastructure provider.
During the company’s fiscal second quarter of 2026, revenues expanded almost threefold versus the same period twelve months prior. The semiconductor manufacturer achieved unprecedented performance levels across its entire product portfolio, including DRAM, NAND flash, high-bandwidth memory, and all operating segments.
Profitability metrics showed equally dramatic improvement. The company’s fiscal third-quarter outlook alone is projected to surpass total annual revenue figures from any fiscal year ending through 2024.
Artificial intelligence servers demand massive quantities of specialized high-bandwidth memory, and Micron has positioned itself as a primary supplier for this critical component. Company leadership indicated that robust demand coupled with constrained supply conditions will likely persist well into 2027.
The manufacturer is also negotiating extended, multi-year supply agreements with major customers, potentially transforming the business model toward greater predictability and reducing the historical boom-bust patterns that characterized the memory industry.
Despite these fundamental improvements, Micron continues trading at a valuation discount compared to AI chip designers, even as memory has become indispensable to the AI computing architecture.
AMD: Impressive Performance in Nvidia’s Shadow
AMD announced record quarterly sales of $10.3 billion for Q4 2025, representing a 34% year-over-year increase. The company achieved a non-GAAP gross margin of 57%.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD
Chief Executive Lisa Su characterized 2025 as a transformational year and emphasized that the company began 2026 with substantial forward momentum. She highlighted the EPYC processor family and expanding data center AI operations as primary growth engines.
AMD is constructing a comprehensive AI ecosystem that encompasses data center graphics processors, server central processing units, and strategic system-level collaborations.
Market participants frequently position AMD as a direct competitor to Nvidia and sometimes dismiss it as the inferior alternative. However, AMD’s investment thesis doesn’t require outperforming Nvidia entirely. The company simply needs to capture increasing market share within a rapidly expanding addressable market while maintaining healthy profit margins.
If AMD sustains its AI accelerator growth trajectory while preserving margin discipline, several analysts believe current valuations may prove significantly discounted when viewed retrospectively.
TSMC: The Essential Manufacturing Infrastructure Powering AI Innovation
TSMC produces the sophisticated semiconductor chips that power much of today’s AI economy. The foundry giant projects 2026 revenues will expand by nearly 30% when denominated in U.S. currency.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
AI accelerator production represented a high-teens percentage of total 2025 revenue. Management forecasts this segment will grow at a compound annual growth rate in the mid-40 percent range during the five-year period beginning in 2024.
TSMC’s strategic position differs fundamentally from Micron or AMD. The company maintains diversification across products and customers rather than depending on any single offering or client relationship. As long as demand for leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing remains robust, TSMC occupies an irreplaceable position within the global supply chain.
The manufacturer operates production facilities throughout Taiwan, Japan, and the United States, with additional American expansion projects currently in development.
Final Thoughts
Micron, AMD, and TSMC have all delivered compelling financial results in their latest reporting periods. Each company maintains substantial exposure to AI hardware demand while demonstrating expanding revenues and improving profitability. The sustainability of these growth trends will largely depend on whether AI infrastructure investment maintains its current pace throughout the remainder of 2026 and beyond.
Crypto World
Banking Sector Earnings and Crude Oil Trends Dominate This Week’s Market Watch
Key Takeaways
- Major indices secured back-to-back weekly gains: S&P 500 advanced 3.5%, Dow Jones climbed 3%, Nasdaq jumped 4.7%
- Financial sector heavyweights including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America release quarterly results this week
- Consumer prices posted their steepest monthly jump in nearly two years during March, primarily fueled by energy costs
- WTI crude trading around $98 per barrel, though forward contracts point to potential decline toward $85 by summer
- Technology sector shows dramatic split: software names plunge 30% while chip manufacturers soar over 20% year-to-date
Equity markets concluded their second straight positive week as Wall Street shifts focus toward quarterly corporate reports. The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 3.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 4.7% over the five-day period. Despite remaining in negative territory for 2026, all three major gauges now sit less than 1% away from returning to breakeven.

The coming days feature a packed calendar of corporate announcements. Goldman Sachs kicks things off Monday. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo deliver their numbers Tuesday. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are scheduled for Wednesday, while Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor round out the week with Thursday releases.
Investors remain attentive to international developments as well. Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran conducted in Pakistan throughout the weekend concluded without breakthrough, as Tehran declined commitments regarding nuclear weapons development, Vice President JD Vance disclosed Saturday evening.
Crude Oil Remains Central Market Driver
Since hostilities between the United States and Iran commenced, petroleum prices have emerged as the primary metric capturing trader attention. West Texas Intermediate crude finished Friday’s session near $98 per barrel, representing a significant jump from approximately $68 before conflict erupted.
Yet forward contracts for July settlement are pricing oil substantially lower around $85. Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel suggested that WTI settling in the “low-to-mid $80s” range would sufficiently eliminate downward pressure on equities.
The temporary 14-day truce involving the United States, Israel, and Iran provided market participants with renewed confidence during the previous week. The sustainability of this ceasefire will largely determine petroleum pricing and, consequently, broader equity market trajectory.
Friday’s inflation data revealed consumer prices climbed 0.9% during March, marking the steepest one-month advance since June 2022. Economic analysts attributed the bulk of this surge to energy-related increases stemming from geopolitical tensions.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to an all-time low in April, though researchers noted 98% of survey responses were gathered prior to the ceasefire announcement.

Diverging Fortunes Within Technology Sector
The performance gap among technology stocks has expanded dramatically. The iShares Software Sector ETF tumbled more than 7% during the past week and now shows a 30% decline year-to-date.
Salesforce represents the category’s weakest performer, sliding over 35% in 2026. AppLovin, Intuit, and ServiceNow have each retreated more than 40%. Microsoft, Palantir, and Oracle have all declined more than 25%.
Chip manufacturers present a contrasting picture. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has gained over 20% during the current year. Intel, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Marvell Technologies have each surged more than 50%.
ASML unveils results Wednesday, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday. Taiwan Semiconductor’s preliminary March revenue figures released last week indicated robust ongoing demand for artificial intelligence processors.
Netflix also joins the reporting schedule Thursday, capping an action-packed week for corporate earnings.
Crypto World
Oil jumps 7%, bitcoin extends losses
Oil futures surged on Hyperliquid after President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major global supply chokepoint. The move came after Iran refused to give up its nuclear ambitions during peace talks in Islamabad earlier in the day.
Perpetual futures tied to WTI crude oil jumped to $96.40, up 7% on the day, extending early gains. Brent futures rose 6% to $96.
Notably, WTI futures registered $1.53 billion in trading volume, making it the third-most-traded instrument on the platform behind BTC and ETH. The data highlights growing investor preference for price discovery on decentralized blockchain platforms, especially when traditional markets are closed.
This blockade news couldn’t have come at a worse time, as mid-April marks a critical period for the oil market, when the large-scale drawdown of strategic petroleum reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency begins to approach its limit.
Those emergency releases, initiated after the war broke out on Feb. 28, have been offsetting a supply shortfall of roughly 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day caused by disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but as these buffers run down in the coming weeks, that gap risks widening sharply to roughly 10 to 11 million barrels per day if normal supply is not restored.
If this scenario materializes, it would amount to “a supply shock without precedent in the modern oil market,” the House of Saud recently said. The IEA’s Chief, Fatih Birol, warned last week that the oil supply shock could be worse in April than in March.
The impact on markets would likely be immediate, with oil benchmarks gapping higher on Monday amid tighter supply expectations, equities facing renewed risk-off pressure amid inflation concerns, and volatility rising across both traditional and crypto markets as traders reassess global growth assumptions.
Bitcoin, which is considered a leading indicator for risk assets by some traders, is already under pressure. As of writing, it changed hands near $71,000, down nearly 3% on the day, according to CoinDesk data.
Crypto World
BTC adds to weekend losses on Trump blockade order
Crypto prices are under further pressure during U.S. morning hours on Sunday after President Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy … will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” said the president in a social media post.
The president’s move came hours after Vice President J.D. Vance late Saturday announced that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had failed to agree to an extended ceasefire after long weekend meetings in Pakistan.
Trading above $73,000 for most of Saturday, bitcoin quickly pulled back to the $71,500 area following the Vance comments. In the minutes since President Trump announced the blockade, BTC has slid further to $70,900, now lower by 2.5% over the past 24 hours.
Crypto World
The case for bringing Wall Street’s darkest corners to crypto
The largest traders have a problem: how to keep their activity quiet enough to not influence market prices or reveal any long-term strategies.
In traditional markets like equities, they’ve had that ability for decades through so-called dark pools and off-exchange venues. Even as far back as January 2025, more than half of all U.S. equities trading took place off public exchanges, according to Bloomberg data.
Crypto has never had an equivalent, and the absence is increasingly difficult to ignore. Every trade on Hyperliquid, every order on a decentralized exchange, is visible to anyone paying attention, and companies like DeFiLlama and Arkham exist to collect and present that data in a digestible way.
The crypto market, which prides itself on disrupting traditional finance, has replicated one of TradFi’s most persistent structural problems: If you’re big enough to move markets, everyone can see you coming. As a result, firms providing liquidity on public decentralized exchanges say their strategies get reverse-engineered quickly
“On Hyperliquid, one of the top market makers told us they have to rotate their trading strategies every three weeks because they get copied,” Denis Dariotis, co-founder of GoQuant, a crypto trading infrastructure firm backed by GSR, said in an interview. “That’s the alpha problem.”
There are other consequences, too. Market makers — the firms providing the liquidity that keeps crypto markets functioning — operate in full public view, and the industry has developed a habit of making them the villain whenever something goes wrong. Recent scrutiny of Jane Street‘s involvement in the Terra/Luna collapse is only the latest example. A large firm’s onchain activity gets traced, a narrative forms and the company spends weeks managing a PR crisis over trades that, on a traditional venue, would have been entirely unremarkable.
GoQuant’s answer is GoDark, a decentralized exchange (DEX) set to start up on Solana in May. That platform uses zero-knowledge proofs to conceal trade details not just from other market participants, but also from the node operators running the order book. The ambition is radical: a matching engine where nobody in the system can see what they’re matching.
The immediate question is whether that’s technically achievable at any useful speed. Zero-knowledge proofs are computationally expensive, and the architecture adds latency that privacy-agnostic systems don’t have to absorb. Internal testing puts order matching at 25 to 50 milliseconds — Dariotis frames this as fast relative to most decentralized exchanges, where execution often runs into the hundreds of milliseconds, and he’s right. But it’s also an order of magnitude slower than what’s available to firms co-located with a centralized exchange. For retail traders that gap probably doesn’t matter. For the market makers GoDark is banking on to provide liquidity, it might.
Which brings up the harder problem. A private exchange with no volume is just a dark room. GoDark’s plan to seed liquidity mirrors what Hyperliquid did with its HLP vault — users deposit funds, the funds get deployed as market-making liquidity, participants take a cut of fees and first access to liquidations.
It worked for Hyperliquid. But it has not worked for most of the DEXes that have tried to replicate the model since, which have generally seen volume collapse once the incentive period ends.
Then there is the regulatory question, which the team has so far avoided having to answer directly. Traditional dark pools are private in the narrow sense that they conceal pre-trade order information, but they operate under post-trade reporting requirements and regulatory oversight.
GoDark’s privacy is more absolute by design, it’s structurally incapable of producing a full audit trail. The inclusion of automated OFAC screening is a gesture toward compliance, but it is unlikely to satisfy regulators who have spent the past three years pushing crypto toward more transparency, not less. How that tension resolves — and whether it limits institutional participation to jurisdictions with lighter oversight — remains to be seen.
GoDark is separate from GoQuant’s existing institutional product of the same name, a spot DEX built with Copper and GSR that enters production next month and targets a different, narrower client base. The May launch is the retail-facing version.
Crypto World
Europe’s Stablecoin Adoption Enters Execution as Firms Select Partners
Banks and corporates across Europe are moving beyond exploration and are now actively selecting infrastructure partners to support stablecoin adoption, according to Lamine Brahimi, co-founder and managing partner at crypto custody technology provider Taurus.
Brahimi told Cointelegraph that eighteen months ago, most conversations were still educational, focused on understanding stablecoins and their risks. Today, firms with board-level approval are preparing to go live. He said the introduction of Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has accelerated that transition by replacing fragmented national rules with a single regulatory regime.
“In the past twelve months alone some of Europe’s most stringent financial institutions are all arriving at the same conclusion, digital assets, including stablecoins, belong inside the existing banking stack, not beside it,” he said.

Corporate treasury teams are driving much of the demand. Initially focused on payments and settlement, companies are looking to use stablecoins to move funds faster, reduce costs and operate outside traditional banking hours, Brahimi said.
Related: Bank of France calls for tougher MiCA limits on stablecoin payments
Demand drives stablecoin adoption in Europe
Brahimi said adoption is increasingly driven by practical needs rather than long-term strategy. “Once clients start asking for better settlement, more flexibility, or more efficient cross-border movement of value, the conversation becomes much more immediate and much more practical,” he added.
On Thursday, ClearBank Europe announced that it has become the first Dutch credit institution to secure approval under MiCA to operate as a crypto asset service provider. A consortium of major European banks, including ING, UniCredit, CaixaBank and BBVA, is also developing Qivalis, a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin initiative designed to enable regulated onchain payments and settlement across Europe.
European banks are also moving ahead with stablecoin initiatives. Societe Generale has positioned its stablecoins around cross-border payments, onchain settlement, FX and cash management, while Oddo BHF has launched a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin. Meanwhile, a consortium of banks, including ING, UniCredit and BNP Paribas is preparing a Swiss-franc stablecoin for the second half of 2026.
Konstantin Vasilenko, co-founder and chief business development officer at Paybis, said the platform has seen rising demand for compatible stablecoins in Europe. Between October 2025 and March 2026, USDC (USDC) volume on Paybis in the EU climbed about 109%, while its share of total stablecoin activity increased from roughly 13% to 32%.
Vasilenko added that in the EU, Paybis stablecoin buy volume remained roughly five to six times higher than sell volume between October 2025 and March 2026. He also noted that average stablecoin transaction sizes were about 15% to 35% larger than typical Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH) trades. “That usually points to working capital, settlement use and more deliberate business flows,” he said.
Related: Hong Kong grants first stablecoin licenses to Anchorpoint and HSBC
Stablecoin volumes could reach $1.5 quadrillion by 2035
A new report from Chainalysis projects that stablecoin transaction volumes could grow dramatically over the next decade, reaching as high as $719 trillion by 2035 under organic growth scenarios, up from about $28 trillion in 2025.
In a more aggressive scenario, volumes could climb to $1.5 quadrillion if stablecoins become a dominant payment infrastructure and wealth transfer from baby boomers to younger, more crypto-native generations accelerates adoption.
Will Harborne, CEO of stablecoin infrastructure provider Rhino.fi, said that stablecoins will become increasingly important for corporate treasury, cross-border settlement, and FX between euro and dollar stablecoins over the next few years.
“I think every business will eventually start accepting and using stablecoins in some form, and the companies that prepare early will be in the best position when that shift becomes mainstream,” he said.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
Crypto World
Polymarket Bets Briefly Appear on Google News Before Being Removed
Polymarket briefly appeared in Google News results alongside established outlets when users searched for event-driven questions, but Google later confirmed the listing was an error and has since been removed. The incident, now described by Google as a temporary misindexing, comes as Polymarket and its rival Kalshi push to embed prediction-market data into mainstream platforms, deploying a mix of partnerships and wallet integrations to broaden access while navigating a shifting regulatory backdrop.
Before its removal, Polymarket links surfaced under mainstream coverage for queries such as “will ships transit the strait,” pairing market bets with accompanying news results. A Futurism report highlighted how a search on the Strait of Hormuz returned Polymarket outcomes alongside Reuters and The Guardian stories. In a subsequent test run by Cointelegraph, the same query did not surface Polymarket results, underscoring how fragile such appearances can be in search ecosystems.
Key takeaways
- Google News briefly surfaced Polymarket results for event-driven queries, but the listing was characterized by Google as an error and has been removed from News.
- Polymarket has been expanding its media presence through partnerships and platform integrations, including a Google Finance collaboration with Kalshi, plus high-profile ties with X and wallet projects like MetaMask and World App.
- Investor realities in prediction markets remain mixed: a small share of traders achieves meaningful profits, while the vast majority do not sustain high monthly earnings over time.
- Expect ongoing experimentation at the intersection of media, social platforms, and prediction markets, with regulatory uncertainty continuing to shape adoption.
Media surfaces and the fragile edge of prediction markets
The Google News incident illustrates how quickly prediction-market data can surface within mainstream information channels, even if only briefly. The Verge reported that Google said the appearance was an error and that Polymarket no longer shows up in News. While such episodes may be short-lived, they reveal an underlying strategy: Polymarket and Kalshi are intent on linking their forecasting markets with traditional media signals to boost discoverability and credibility beyond crypto-native audiences.
Historically, search and news integrations have been a proving ground for how reliably prediction-market content can coexist with standard journalism. The example cited by Futurism—where a search for an ongoing geopolitical question produced Polymarket bets next to established outlets—demonstrates both the potential reach and the volatility of such integrations. The takeaway for traders and users is that discovery channels may be temporary and context-dependent, reinforcing the notion that prediction markets work best when embedded in trusted, regulated environments rather than as fleeting search-index byproducts.
A push to embed Polymarket in mainstream platforms
Polymarket and Kalshi have been pursuing broad media and data distribution strategies for more than a year. Notably, Google partnered with both platforms to bring their data into Google Finance, a collaboration that signals an appetite to translate prediction-market signals into familiar financial interfaces. The move places outcome-based markets alongside traditional financial data streams, potentially widening the audience beyond crypto enthusiasts.
The momentum isn’t limited to Google. In June, Elon Musk’s X publicly announced a partnership naming Polymarket as its official prediction-market partner, a move framed as integrating forecast-based thinking into the social-media experience. This collaboration suggests a broader ambition to normalize prediction markets as a forecasting tool within digital communities and real-time events, rather than relegating them to niche crypto spaces.
Further, in October, MetaMask said it would integrate Polymarket as part of a broader push to broaden access beyond a crypto wallet to a more inclusive “democratized finance” gateway. World App, the digital wallet and identity platform from Sam Altman’s World project, also added Polymarket to its app ecosystem. Taken together, these partnerships illustrate a concerted effort to place Polymarket’s forecasting markets where users already manage identities and finances, reducing friction for entry and usage.
These moves are generally framed as ways to diversify user bases and improve liquidity by tapping into platforms with established user engagement. However, they also bring new layers of regulatory scrutiny, given the evolving legal status of prediction markets in different jurisdictions and the potential for consumer protection concerns when forecasting political or geopolitical outcomes. Still, the cross-platform strategy signals a clear editorial and product direction: forecast-based markets want to be as accessible and visible as traditional financial data, even when their underlying contracts remain distinct in risk and structure.
Profitability realities for Polymarket traders
Beyond platform reach, discussions about profitability on Polymarket have highlighted a more sober picture. A Crypto analytics perspective highlighted that only a small portion of traders achieve meaningful and sustained profits. Specifically, about 1% of traders exceeded $5,000 in profit in a single month, but only 0.015% managed to maintain that level for four consecutive months. On cumulative terms, roughly 0.033% of wallets surpassed $100,000 in total profits, a signal that professional or highly active traders dominate the higher echelons of profitability while most participants struggle to maintain consistent gains.
These figures mirror broader questions about the economics of prediction markets: while the concept is compelling—crowdsourced forecasting with real-time risk pricing—the practical path to sustained profitability is narrow, given the blend of volatility, liquidity, and information asymmetries that characterize event-driven markets. For investors and builders, the takeaway is that the field still rewards specialized strategies and disciplined risk management, rather than broad, casual participation. The data also underline why media partnerships and easier access points matter: lower barriers to entry can attract more participants, but sustaining profitability requires skill, data access, and sound discipline.
For readers seeking deeper context, previous coverage from Cointelegraph highlighted how traders with disciplined approaches have navigated Polymarket’s liquidity and event-focused markets, though profitability remains uneven and sensitive to event outcomes, market sentiment, and timing.
What to watch next for Polymarket and the prediction-market space
Looking ahead, the convergence of media visibility, platform integrations, and heightened public discourse around forecasting raises several questions. Will more mainstream technology platforms adopt prediction-market data as a standard feature, and if so, what safeguards and regulatory guardrails will accompany such integrations? How will trader behavior adapt as interfaces become more familiar to non-crypto users, and what does that mean for liquidity and volatility during high-stakes events?
Observers should monitor whether these partnerships translate into tangible increases in mainstream adoption or if they remain primarily branding and distribution plays. The ongoing regulatory environment will likely shape both the speed and scope of embedding forecast markets within consumer platforms. For now, Polymarket’s outreach through Google Finance, X, MetaMask, and World App marks a notable push to reposition forecast markets as part of the broader financial-information ecosystem—and a test of how far mainstream platforms will go in embracing probability-based forecasting as a normal feature of everyday decision making.
As the ecosystem evolves, readers should stay attentive to how search indexing quirks, regulatory updates, and platform policy changes influence accessibility and reliability of Polymarket’s markets, and what that means for traders seeking to navigate this unique, high-variance corner of crypto finance.
Readers should watch ongoing developments in media integrations and platform partnerships, as they will influence access, liquidity, and the perceived legitimacy of prediction markets within both crypto-native and mainstream audiences.
Crypto World
Altria Group (MO) Stock: Valuation Models Signal Upside Despite Mixed Analyst Sentiment
Key Takeaways
- MO shares finished trading at $66.80, delivering 26.9% returns over 12 months and an impressive 91.9% gain across five years
- Intrinsic valuation via DCF methodology reaches $99.44 per share, suggesting the stock trades at a 32.8% discount
- Current P/E multiple of 16.12x falls short of the calculated Fair Ratio at 23.27x, indicating potential undervaluation
- Company declared $1.06 quarterly dividend, translating to a 6.3% annual yield, with April 30 payment date
- Wall Street maintains “Hold” rating with average price objective at $65.75
Altria Group (MO) has delivered impressive returns to shareholders recently. The tobacco giant’s shares settled at $66.80, representing year-to-date appreciation of 16.6% and a robust 26.9% advance over twelve months. Looking further back, the five-year return reaches 91.9%.
Such robust performance inevitably leads investors to wonder: is there more upside ahead, or has the rally exhausted itself?
MO shares began Friday’s session at $67.52. The 50-day moving average currently stands at $66.41, while the 200-day average tracks at $62.59. Over the past year, the trading range has extended from a low of $54.70 to a peak of $70.51.
The company’s fourth-quarter results showed earnings per share of $1.30, falling marginally short of analyst expectations at $1.32. Top-line performance fared better, with revenue reaching $5.08 billion versus the $5.02 billion consensus forecast.
Wall Street projects full-year earnings of $5.32 per share for the ongoing fiscal period.
Fundamental Analysis Indicates Discount to Fair Value
Utilizing a 2-Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity discounted cash flow framework, Altria’s fair value calculates to $99.44 per share. This assessment incorporates trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $9.11 billion, with projections reaching $9.31 billion by 2028.
Measured against the prevailing market price of $66.80, this methodology points to a meaningful 32.8% discount — flagging the stock as potentially undervalued.
Price-to-earnings analysis reinforces this conclusion. MO currently commands a 16.12x earnings multiple. While this exceeds the tobacco sector average of 12.27x, it trails the peer group average of 18.63x. Simply Wall St’s calculated Fair Ratio for Altria sits at 23.27x, further supporting the undervaluation thesis.
The company maintains a market capitalization of $112.85 billion, with a PEG ratio of 2.85 and beta of 0.41 — indicating lower volatility relative to broader equity markets.
Distribution Policy and Ownership Patterns
Management declared a $1.06 per share quarterly distribution, scheduled for April 30 payment. The ex-dividend date occurred on March 25. This translates to $4.24 annually and generates a 6.3% yield.
The current payout ratio registers at 103.16%.
Recent institutional activity shows Westbourne Investments establishing a fresh position valued at approximately $995,000 during Q4, acquiring 17,261 shares. Multiple other institutional players expanded holdings, including V Square Quantitative Management, Yarger Wealth Strategies, and Powers Advisory Group. MH & Associates Securities Management initiated a position worth roughly $2.72 million.
Institutional ownership currently represents 57.41% of outstanding shares.
Street Sentiment and Corporate Transactions
Wall Street opinion remains divided. UBS maintains a buy recommendation with a $74 price objective. Citigroup holds a neutral stance at $65. Barclays carries an underweight rating at $63. Jefferies assigns an underperform rating with a $50 target.
The aggregate consensus lands at “Hold” with a mean price target of $65.75 — marginally below current trading levels.
Regarding insider transactions, SVP Charles N. Whitaker disposed of 27,908 shares on March 5 at an average price of $67.57, generating proceeds of approximately $1.89 million. This sale reduced his holdings by 13.37%. His remaining position totals 180,869 shares.
Company insiders collectively control 0.08% of outstanding equity.
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