Crypto World
5 US Economic Reports That Could Move Bitcoin This Week
Bitcoin price enters one of the most consequential macro weeks of the first quarter, trading in the $66,000 range, down modestly amid fragile sentiment, thin liquidity, and geopolitical overhang.
After weeks of several lower highs, and with the pioneer crypto recording its weakest start to a year on record, traders are now turning to a heavy slate of US economic data that could redefine Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut expectations and, by extension, crypto market direction.
US Economic Data Points to Influence Bitcoin Price This Week
Below are the five key reports expected to sway Bitcoin sentiment this week.
Manufacturing PMI
The week begins with February’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the closely watched ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Consensus expects readings around 51.2 for S&P and 52.0–52.3 for ISM, following January’s surprise surge to 52.6, the strongest expansion since 2022.
The implications could extend to Bitcoin, where a reading above 52.5, particularly if new orders and production strengthen, would reinforce the “resilient economy” narrative.
That scenario typically delays Fed rate cuts, lifts Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, and puts pressure on non-yielding assets like BTC.
Conversely, a drop toward 50, the contraction threshold, would shift expectations toward earlier easing. Historically, contraction combined with weak BTC positioning has delivered strong upside reversals.
“ISM above 50 is bullish for markets,” commented analyst Bull Theory.
Notably, manufacturing is not the dominant engine of the U.S. economy. However, as the week’s first catalyst, it could set the volatility tone for March.
ADP Employment Signals Labor Tightness
Meanwhile, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change report acts as the market’s first real labor pulse for February. Economists expect roughly 50,000 new private-sector jobs, up from January’s modest 22,000 gain.
Because ADP often serves as a preview for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), traders react aggressively to deviations. A strong print above 60,000–75,000 would suggest labor resilience, reinforcing the Fed’s “higher for longer” posture. That would likely push yields and the dollar higher, weighing on Bitcoin.
On the other hand, a soft reading, especially below 40,000, would revive the liquidity narrative. Signs of cooling labor conditions strengthen expectations for rate cuts later this year, which historically benefit risk assets and crypto.
With markets already pricing roughly two to three cuts in 2026, even modest surprises could recalibrate positioning.
Services PMI
Later Wednesday, attention shifts to the services sector with the S&P Services PMI and ISM Services PMI.
Expectations sit in the 52.3–53.5 range, consistent with steady expansion. January’s ISM Services reading came in at 53.8.
Because services account for the majority of U.S. economic activity, this report carries more influence than manufacturing.
Strong services print alongside solid employment data would reinforce economic resilience, dampening hopes for near-term easing and pressuring BTC.
However, signs of slowing demand or weaker employment could quickly change the narrative. Markets remain hyper-sensitive to any indication that growth momentum is cooling.
A combined miss across ADP and services would amplify dovish bets, potentially sparking a relief rally in Bitcoin toward the $70,000 psychological level.
Jobless Claims
Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims, expected around 215,000, versus the previous 212,000, provide a high-frequency gauge of labor-market stress.
While often overlooked compared to NFP, claims can meaningfully shape expectations ahead of Friday’s headline report.
Last week’s lower-than-expected claims reinforced tight labor conditions and coincided with BTC slipping below $68,000.
If claims remain subdued, it strengthens the hawkish case: a tight labor market limits urgency for rate cuts.
Conversely, an unexpected spike would support the cooling narrative, softening yield pressure and providing near-term support for crypto.
Given its proximity to NFP, Thursday’s release could either validate earlier signals or introduce fresh uncertainty.
Non-Farm Payrolls
Friday’s U.S. Employment Report is the week’s defining event and the highest beta catalyst. Consensus calls for approximately 54,000 new jobs in February, down sharply from January’s strong 130,000 gain.
The unemployment rate is expected at 4.3%, with hourly wages rising 0.3% month-over-month.For Bitcoin, notwithstanding, the NFP is the highest-beta macro catalyst.
A hot print, say above 80,000 jobs with firm wage growth, would reinforce the narrative that the economy remains too strong for imminent cuts.
Yields would likely spike, the dollar would strengthen, and BTC could test lower support zones near $62,000–$59,000.
A soft report, particularly below 40,000 jobs or rising unemployment, would accelerate rate-cut pricing and potentially ignite a liquidity-driven rally.
With sentiment fragile and Bitcoin trading below key resistance in the $72,000–$75,000 range, this week’s data could define March’s trajectory.
Earnings reports are still rolling in. This week Riot Platforms, the fourth-largest bitcoin miner by market cap, is due to report, as is Core Scientific, the No. 6.
Like many of their peers, the two are using their experience running large data centers and negotiating power-supply deals to expand into AI. Core, whose proposed $9 billion purchase by CoreWeave (CRWV) failed in October, barely mentions digital asset mining on its homepage. It will be interesting to see how much of its business still comes from that source.
Also due this week is the U.S. jobs report for February. The world’s largest economy is forecast to have added 60,000 nonfarm positions last month, according to the consensus estimate on Trading Economics.
Traders will also be monitoring the war in the Middle East, which has seen the U.S. and Israel strike Iran in what President Donald Trump called “major combat operations” targeting the country’s missile, naval and nuclear infrastructure.
Iran has retaliated with attacks on various countries in the region that host U.S. military bases. The conflict has been escalating with Iran-backed militias joining in. Trump has said it’s expected to last “four to five weeks,” so an earlier-than-expected truce could bring risk appetite back.
What to Watch
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- March 2: SuperRare to release Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0x
- March 2: Mantra’s OM token to change to MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split as the Mantra chain upgrades from v6 to v7.
- March 3: SolCex mobile app to debut on Google Play and Apple’s App Store.
- March 4: Qubic begins testing parallel dogecoin mining and AI training
- Macro
- March 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February est. 52.3 (Prev. 52.6)
- March 3, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone inflation rate YoY flash for February (Prev. 1.7%); Core YoY (Prev. 2.2%)
- March 3, 7:30 p.m.: Australia GDP growth rate QoQ for Q4 (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 3, 8:30 p.m.: China NBS manufacturing PMI for February (Prev. 49.3)
- March 4, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP employment change for February (Prev. 22K)
- March 4, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM services PMI for February (Prev. 53.8)
- March 4, 2:00 p.m.: U.S. Fed Beige Book
- March 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending Feb. 28 (Prev. 212K)
- March 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm productivity QoQ prel for Q4 (Prev. 4.9%)
- March 5, 4:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed balance sheet update for period ending March 4
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February Est. 60K (Prev. 130K)
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment rate for February (Prev. 4.3%)
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. average hourly earnings MoM for February (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. retail sales control group MoM for January (Prev. 0.0%)
- March 8, 8:30 p.m.: China inflation rate YoY for February (Prev. 0.2%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32
- March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18
- March 6: Metalpha (MATH), pre-market
- March 9: Sharplink (SBET), pre-market, $0.31
- March 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), pre-market, $0.14
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- PoolTogether DAO is voting to manually resubmit and execute the remaining actions for the PTBR-35 governance shutdown after a previous execution error. Voting ends March 2.
- Angle DAO is voting on an orderly wind-down of the EURA and USDA stablecoins, providing users a one-year 1:1 redemption period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting ends March 2.
- GMX DAO is voting to transition to a defined leadership model by hiring a CEO with performance-tied compensation and forming an interim leadership committee to guide the restructuring. Voting ends March 2.
- ShapeShift DAO is voting to appoint PTT as the Tokenomics Workstream Leader for a six-month term, compensated entirely in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends March 3.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to explore the automatic execution of approved proposals and soft term limits for signer keys while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends March 3.
- Uniswap DAO is voting across two linked proposals to expand v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight layer-2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends March 4 and 5.
- ENS DAO is voting to replace three DNSSEC oracle algorithms to patch a critical RSA signature forgery vulnerability and significantly reduce gas costs. Voting ends March 4.
- Gnosis DAO is voting to provide a grant to fund the continued support, infrastructure and maintenance of the Revoke.cash security platform. Voting ends March 5.
- Unlocks
- March 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.24% of its circulating supply worth $18.35 million.
- March 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.72% of its circulating supply worth around $288.77 million.
- Token Launches
- March 8 or earlier: Chiliz (CHZ) to deploy revenue from the protocol to buyback and burn CHZ tokens.
- March 8 or earlier: WhiteBit Token (WBT) to be listed on Kraken.
Conferences
The XRP market is undergoing a structural shift as trading dynamics move from spot accumulation to a derivatives-led environment.
Summary
- XRP is shifting from spot-driven accumulation to a speculative, futures-led market, signaling an impending “volatility squeeze” as leveraged traders position for a major move.
- The price remains trapped below the 50-day SMA ($1.63) with a neutral-to-bearish RSI of 39, indicating a lack of buying pressure despite the surge in trading activity.
- Traders are eyeing $1.20 as the “must-hold” support floor, while a breakout above the $1.50–$1.80 resistance range is required to confirm a bullish reversal.
Recent Coinglass data reveals a significant uptick in XRP futures volume relative to spot trading, signaling that speculative interest is once again a primary price driver. This surge in futures activity typically precedes a “volatility squeeze,” where the price breaks sharply as leveraged positions are either rewarded or liquidated.
For the Ripple token (XRP), this suggests the market is no longer in a state of passive holding but is bracing for a decisive move.
This futures-dominated landscape makes the price more susceptible to rapid squeezes; while it provides the liquidity needed to break overhead resistance, it also warns that any downside could be exacerbated by a cascade of liquidations.
XRP price navigates critical support
Technically, XRP is navigating a precarious path, currently trading near $1.35 as of March 2026. The price action remains pinned below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.63, which acts as a formidable dynamic resistance.
Until XRP secures a daily close above this level, the medium-term bias remains bearish. Recent candlestick patterns show a string of small-bodied “doji” candles, reflecting market indecision despite the rising futures turnover.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers around 39, placing the asset in a neutral-to-bearish zone that lacks the immediate buying pressure required for a reversal.
Immediate support is firmly established at the $1.20 mark, a level that has historically served as a psychological safety net. Should XRP fail to hold $1.20, a deeper retracement toward $1.00 becomes a distinct possibility.
Conversely, the first major hurdle for a bullish recovery sits at $1.50, followed by a high-volume resistance zone at $1.80.
Aave’s “Aave Will Win” framework has passed its Temp Check vote, clearing the first formal stage of the protocol’s governance process.
On Sunday, the off-chain Snapshot vote closed with 52.58% voting in favor, 42% against and 5.42% abstaining. The result advances the measure to the Aave Request for Final Comment (ARFC) stage, where terms may be revised before any binding on-chain vote.
The framework asks tokenholders to approve up to $42.5 million in stablecoins and 75,000 Aave (AAVE) tokens for Aave Labs. In return, the organization would route 100% of revenue from Aave-branded products to the Aave DAO treasury under a DAO-funded operating model.
The narrow margin highlights a divided governance base as the protocol considers structural changes to its funding, revenue alignment and long-term development.
The ARFC stage will determine whether concerns raised during the debate will translate into revisions before a formal Aave Improvement Proposal is submitted on-chain.
Split vote reflects ongoing governance tensions
Aave founder Stani Kulechov said in a post on X that the Temp Check brings the protocol closer to a “fully token-centric model,” adding that structural improvements will be incorporated at the ARFC stage based on community feedback.
Critics previously questioned the size of the funding package and the inclusion of 75,000 AAVE tokens, which carry voting power.
Others called for clearer definitions and stronger disclosure standards around governance holdings.
Related: Grvt integrates Aave so traders can earn yield on perp collateral
On Feb. 25, competing reports from Aave Chan Initiative (ACI) founder Marc Zeller and Aave Labs offered contrasting interpretations of past funding and value creation ahead of the vote.
The ACI published a transparency report reviewing Aave Labs’ historical funding, while Aave Labs outlined its role in building the protocol since 2017.
What happens next in Aave governance process?
Under Aave’s governance framework, proposals typically move from Temp Check to ARFC before advancing to an on-chain Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) vote. Only AIPs executed on-chain are binding.
If the proposal advances beyond ARFC, tokenholders will vote on whether to formalize the DAO-funded model and ratify Aave V4 as the long-term technical foundation.
The outcome could reshape how the Aave ecosystem structures development, revenue and brand stewardship.
Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets
The crypto market is under renewed pressure, with the total market capitalization slipping nearly 1% over the past 24 hours and all top 10 assets posting losses.
Nonetheless, select altcoins are breaking away from the trend. Venice Token (VVV) stands out as the strongest performer among the top 300 cryptocurrencies.
VVV Token Jumps 20% Despite Market Slump
Venice AI is a privacy-focused, permissionless platform that provides uncensored access to open-source AI models for text, image, video, and code generation. It was founded by Erik Voorhees, the former CEO of ShapeShift.
The Venice Token (VVV) is the native token of the Venice AI ecosystem. It was launched in January 2025. The altcoin’s primary utility is staking.
Users stake VVV to receive yield or mint DIEM. Each DIEM provides $1 of daily API access in perpetuity.
According to data from BeInCrypto Markets, VVV surged over 20% today, reaching an intraday high of $6.78. This marked its highest price since February 2025.
At the time of writing, the token was trading at $6.57. Furthermore, VVV has ranked as the largest gainer among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market cap, according to CoinGecko.
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Monday’s surge is not an isolated move but part of a broader uptrend. In a recent post, CoinGecko noted that VVV has delivered 7.5x growth over the past three months. Its market cap has climbed above $290.7 million amid the ongoing rally.
Why is Venice Token (VVV) Surging?
A key question that arises is what is driving the rally. CoinGecko highlighted two primary catalysts behind the surge. First, the platform reduced its annual token emissions from February 10, lowering them from 8 million VVV to 6 million VVV.
This 25% cut in new token issuance tightens supply dynamics. With fewer tokens entering circulation, potential sell pressure from emissions declines, strengthening the token’s scarcity profile. Second, VVV’s integration across several platforms has boosted its exposure and utility.
“Here’s why it pumped: Venice cut annual emissions to 6M VVV/year, improving scarcity. VVV was integrated across several DeFi platforms as utility: → Aerodrome: Liquidity → Morpho: Collateral → Plena: Gasless swaps,” the post read.
In addition, the platform is experiencing rising demand. Venice AI has 2 million registered users, signaling steady ecosystem growth. Moreover, the number of API users has also increased.
LunarCrush data shows high social engagement with VVV. Engagement was 255% above the daily average, and social dominance jumped 424% from last week. The token earned an AltRank of 8 among all cryptocurrencies, reflecting strong performance and interest.
“The thesis that keeps circulating: private uncensored AI inference where compute demand drives staking, staking reduces circulating supply, and tightening supply creates reflexive upward pressure. The $DIEM token launch deepened this – 7.56M VVV already locked as collateral, roughly 17% of circulating supply,” LunarCrush added.
VVV still remains 70% below its all-time high. Whether the current rally, built on supply contraction and user growth, can sustain itself through a softer broader market remains to be seen.
- Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) has surged on a 900% volume spike.
- Recent Kyber product upgrades have improved market sentiment.
- Traders should closely watch the support at $0.148 support and the resistance at $0.175.
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) has jumped by nearly 24% to trade around the $0.16 level at press time.
This move stands out in a market that has otherwise struggled for direction.
While many large-cap cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), posted losses, KNC moved higher with strong conviction, and the rally has drawn attention from traders who are now asking what is really driving the price higher.
Heavy trading activity fueling KNC’s price rally
One of the clearest drivers behind the surge is a dramatic increase in trading activity.
KNC’s 24-hour trading volume has exploded by more than 900%, pushing turnover to levels rarely seen in recent months.
Such a sharp rise in volume often signals aggressive short-term participation from traders looking to capitalise on momentum.
This also explains why the price moved largely independently of BTC, which has declined over the same period.
When volume expands this quickly, even modest buying pressure can translate into outsized price moves, and that appears to be exactly what happened with KNC.
Product updates add to positive sentiment
Although no single announcement directly triggered today’s price spike, Kyber Network has been quietly rolling out updates that have helped improve sentiment around the project.
Kyber Network recently highlighted expanded cross-chain functionality on its flagship product, KyberSwap.
As a result, users can now swap assets across 25 different blockchains using liquidity from eight providers in a single transaction.
This kind of convenience strengthens Kyber’s position in an increasingly competitive DeFi landscape.
The team has also introduced a new feature called Smart Exit on Kyber Earn.
Smart Exit allows liquidity providers to automate how and when they exit positions.
Instead of constantly monitoring charts, users can set predefined conditions for profit-taking, risk management, or time-based exits.
The feature is already live on Base and BNB Chain, with more networks expected to follow.
In parallel, Kyber has continued to form new ecosystem partnerships.
A recent integration with Vaultedge brought the USDVE asset onto KyberSwap, unlocking deeper liquidity and improved routing.
Another upcoming integration with Supernova is expected to further expand Kyber’s liquidity reach.
While these updates did not directly cause today’s spike, they help explain why traders are willing to speculate on upside.
Kyber Network Crystal price forecast
From a technical analysis standpoint, the KNC price has broken above its 30-day simple moving average near $0.148.
This level had acted as a cap for weeks, and clearing it helps reinforce bullish sentiment.
Moving ahead, the $0.148 zone has now become the most important support to watch in the near term.
Holding above this level would suggest that the recent breakout remains intact.
If buyers maintain control, KNC could attempt a push toward resistance around $0.175, and a clean break above that area may open the door to further upside.
On the downside, failure to hold $0.148, especially if trading volume contracts sharply, could trigger a quick pullback.
In that scenario, the next area of interest sits near $0.135, where buyers may look to step back in.
GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3575 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP started a decent increase and might aim for more gains above 0.8800.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today
· The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.3500 support.
· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3440 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
· EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8750 pivot level.
· There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8755 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to stay above the 1.3535 pivot level. As a result, the British Pound started a fresh decline below 1.3500 against the US Dollar.
There was a clear move below 1.3485 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.3440. Finally, there was a spike toward the 1.3400 handle. A low was formed near 1.3400, and the pair is now consolidating losses.
There was a minor move above 1.3425 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3575 swing high to the 1.3400 low. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a key bearish trend line at 1.3440.
A close above the trend line might send the pair toward the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3485 and the 50-hour simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, they could aim for more gains.
In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.3535. The next major hurdle for GBP/USD sits at 1.3575. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.3400. If there is a downside break below 1.3400, the pair could accelerate lower. The next key interest area might be 1.3360, below which the pair could test 1.3320. Any more downside could lead the pair toward 1.3250.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 0.8700. The Euro traded above 0.8750 to enter a positive zone against the British Pound.
The pair settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8760. The pair traded as high as 0.8789 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8702 swing low to the 0.8790 high.
However, the pair is stable above 0.8750 and the 50% Fib retracement. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8755.
A downside break below 0.8755 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 0.8745. Any more losses might call for an extended drop toward the 0.8730 pivot zone.
If there is another increase, the EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair is facing hurdles near 0.8775. A close above 0.8775 might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8800. Any more gains might send the pair to 0.8840.
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Elon Musk-owned X will allow crypto-related promotional content under an updated paid partnership policy.
Summary
- X has lifted its ban on paid crypto promotions, allowing influencers to publish sponsored content under a revised paid partnership framework.
- The update excludes jurisdictions such as the European Union, the United Kingdom and Australia.
According to X’s updated paid partnership policy, influencers will be allowed to publish promotional content related to cryptocurrencies, as long as it is in compliance with the platform’s disclosure rules and all applicable advertising and financial promotion laws.
However, the feature will not be available in regions where local regulations impose stricter requirements on crypto-related promotions, such as the European Union, the United Kingdom and Australia.
For instance, the U.K. Advertising Standards Authority has cracked down on crypto advertisements that downplay risks, recently banning a Coinbase ad campaign. Australian regulators have also taken a similar stance and have previously sued Meta over misleading crypto ads.
X first imposed restrictions on crypto advertising back in 2018, just weeks after similar crackdowns were introduced by other tech giants like Google and Meta, which was still operating as Facebook at the time.
Under the X branding, the social network in June 2024 moved the entire Financial Products category into Prohibited status for paid promotions and influencer partnerships as a means to combat undisclosed crypto endorsements and aggressive shilling by influencers who were not revealing their paid deals.
Commenting about the latest update, X’s head of product Nikita Bier said the feature will help creators build and grow their businesses on the platform while, at the same time, remaining transparent to their follower base.
Over the past months, X has announced plans to launch new products, including X Money and X TV, as part of Musk’s vision of an “everything app” that combines social networking, media, and financial services under one platform.
Last year, X partnered with Visa to enable digital transactions directly within the platform. Rumors have suggested that X Money could also include cryptocurrencies, but these claims have not been officially confirmed by the company.
However, X has confirmed plans for “Smart Cashtags,” a feature that will allow users to see real-time price charts and access buy and sell buttons for major assets, including cryptocurrencies, directly from their timelines.
After reaching an all-time high of roughly $4 trillion in total market value in October, crypto markets have entered one of their sharpest corrections in years.
Bitcoin, which peaked near $126,000 during the rally, has since retraced to the low $60,000 range. Billions of dollars in leveraged positions have been liquidated, open interest has contracted sharply from late-year highs, and liquidity across trading venues has thinned. ETF flows have turned negative, reinforcing a broader phase of institutional de-risking.
The speed of the unwind has revived a familiar question: when volatility spikes and liquidity compresses, how do institutions actually respond?
How Institutional Capital Responds to Volatility
For Sheldon Hunt, the pullback tells a different story than the headlines suggest. As founder and CEO of Sundial, a Bitcoin Layer-2 protocol targeting institutional participation, he sees institutions simplifying their exposure instead of abandoning it.
“When you see volatility like this, what pulls back first is risk, exposure, and complexity,” Hunt told BeInCrypto during our conversation at Liquidity Summit 2026 in Hong Kong, further adding:
“Institutions are not necessarily cutting all exposure. They are consolidating. They go back to basics.”
That return to basics, Hunt says, is best understood as a flight to quality.
When volatility spikes, institutions tend to reduce exposure to more complex or risk-centric applications. Rather than chasing new strategies, they narrow their focus. He added:
“You can pull back on some of these complexities, variants like DeFi. You want to get back to something like the basics.”
Wallet Activity as a Market Barometer
In addition to allocation shifts, Hunt also watches on-chain behavior for early signs of stress.
“Wallets generally don’t lie,” he said, describing wallet activity as one of the clearest barometers of market health.
During volatile periods, he observes assets moving off exchanges and DeFi platforms and reconsolidating into fewer wallets. That movement, he argues, reflects caution rather than capitulation.
Hunt does not view the current shift as a brief pause. In his assessment, the market is operating under real liquidity strain.
“We’re living in it right now,” he said. “There are certainly constraints around liquidity these days. People are quite nervous.”
He points to volatility across broader markets and tightening financial conditions as reinforcing that caution. For institutional capital, that environment changes the tempo of decision-making.
Hunt believes that capital allocators are likely to proceed more cautiously under current liquidity constraints.
“There’s still a real possibility that this is the beginning of a fairly nasty bear market that could go on for potentially two or more years,” he said.
If the downturn extends, timing matters less than resilience. Allocators focus on maintaining exposure without introducing additional fragility. He described the current phase as “minimizing risk exposure and looking to be in it for the long run.”
Evaluating Yield Through an Institutional Lens
That framing also informs how institutions approach Bitcoin yield.
Hunt said one of the most common misconceptions is that institutions are primarily focused on maximizing returns. In practice, he argued, that assumption does not reflect how professional allocators operate.
According to Hunt, professional allocators are unlikely to pursue 20% or 30% yields on their Bitcoin if those returns depend on layered complexity or unclear counterparty structures.
“The reality is that institutions are focused on minimizing risk,” he said. “Stable and secure yield over the long run, even 1% or 2%, is far more aligned with their mandates.”
In practical terms, that shapes how products are evaluated. Yield levels alone are not the deciding factor. Custody arrangements, settlement mechanics, and downside scenarios tend to carry more weight in internal reviews.
Despite the growing conversation around Bitcoin-native finance, Hunt believes meaningful institutional deployment remains limited. Hunt added:
“There’s this idea that there’s all of this Bitcoin out there, it’s all sloshing around. The reality is that we have seen very little Bitcoin being put to work on DeFi or being put to work in either the protocols or layer-2s.”
A large share of BTC continues to sit in long-term custody. For Hunt, that signals that the infrastructure layer is still developing rather than saturated.
“It’s still early days,” he said. “The best days of Bitcoin are very much ahead of it. The best days of DeFi are ahead of it. There’s still so much more to be untapped.”
The slower pace of institutional participation, in his view, reflects how risk is assessed. Before capital moves into structured yield environments, questions around custody control, settlement assurance, and exposure concentration must be addressed in ways that align with existing mandates.
Custody, Control, and the Next Cycle
Looking toward the next cycle, Hunt expects architecture to matter more than surface-level features.
“I’m of the very firm belief that in this next cycle, a big priority is going to be around non-custodial options,” he said, pointing specifically to non-custodial staking and settlement models that account for custodial risk.
In his view, institutions want clarity over who controls assets at every stage of the process. In practice, that means retaining unilateral authority over settlement and custody. The crypto industry has long championed the idea of being one’s own bank. For institutional allocators, that principle shows up less as ideology and more as governance architecture. The next phase of adoption will depend on whether that architecture can satisfy traditional risk frameworks.
Physical gold prices climbed to their highest level in a month as safe-haven demand spiked amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
At the same time, the move into bullion is spilling into digital markets. On-chain data shows a surge in the accumulation of tokenized gold assets.
Gold Prices Advance as Investors Seek Safety
Gold rose 2% on March 2, reaching an intraday high of $5,394 per ounce, its highest level since January 30. At press time, the price had adjusted to $5,363.7.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
The catalyst was direct: US and Israeli strikes on Iran sparked safe-haven flows into precious metals across global markets. Monday’s flare-up injected additional momentum into the precious metal’s broader rally. Gold has delivered notable returns, rising approximately 65% in 2025 alone.
For crypto participants, the timing mattered. With digital asset markets simultaneously experiencing renewed volatility, tokenized gold offered a path to preserve gold exposure without relying on traditional finance rails.
Major Purchases Highlight Tokenized Gold Demand
On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain identified an inactive wallet that spent $1 million USDC to buy PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT) tokens. The address, labeled 0x1C70, performed multiple swaps over several hours and still holds $4 million USDC.
“The wallet still holds 4M USDC and may buy more,” Lookonchain said.
Additionally, an Ethereum whale rotated holdings from ETH into XAUT while accepting a realized loss. OnchainLens reported that the wallet (0x744b) swapped 1,000 ETH, valued at $1.94 million, for 358.49 XAUT at $5,413, incurring a loss of over $60,000.
“Over the past 2 years, the whale received 1,645 ETH for $3.26 million and still holds 645 ETH ($1.25 million),” the post read.
Meanwhile, London-based asset manager Abraxas Capital Management’s gold holdings also rose. An on-chain analyst, citing data from blockchain intelligence platform Arkham Intelligence, reported that the firm received 28,723 XAUT tokens, valued at $151 million, from Tether’s treasury. The transfer marked the largest XAUT transaction recorded in the past three weeks.
“Interesting fact: Heka Funds (Abraxas Capital) is one of Tether’s largest and most important institutional clients. At one point, it held 1.5% of the total USDT supply. Among Tether’s publicly disclosed on-chain address clusters, it currently ranks as the second-largest entity by interaction volume,” the analyst added.
The increase in tokenized gold accumulation corresponds with greater interest in alternative stores of value within crypto. Investors may favor gold-backed tokens for price stability and potential gains linked to metals markets, while risking less from the volatility typical of many digital assets.
BeInCrypto recently reported that the tokenized gold sector has recorded significant expansion, with its market capitalization now exceeding $6 billion. Furthermore, according to CoinGecko, daily trading volumes for both XAUT and PAXG surpassed $1 billion yesterday, signaling strong investor demand.
Whether this is a temporary flight to safety or marks a sustained move toward commodity-backed digital tokens remains a question as March 2026 progresses and more on-chain data emerges.
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Arthur Hayes argues that Middle East wars often trigger Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting Bitcoin over time.
In a March 1 essay, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the U.S. military escalation in Iran fits a four-decade pattern of American intervention in the Middle East that ultimately leads to Federal Reserve easing.
According to Hayes, the longer the U.S. engages in this conflict, the higher the likelihood the Fed cuts rates or prints money to finance the war effort, a move he believes will drive the price of Bitcoin (BTC) higher.
Hayes Draws a Line From Gulf Wars to Fed Rate Cuts
In his analysis, Hayes pointed to the 1990 Gulf War, where FOMC minutes from August of that year noted that “events in the Middle East had greatly complicated the formulation of an effective monetary policy,” leading to rate cuts later that year.
He also cited the Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting after the September 11, 2001, attacks, where then-Chair Alan Greenspan cut rates by 50 basis points, explicitly pointing to a “heightened degree of fear and uncertainty” impacting asset prices.
The crypto market has already reacted to the unfolding geopolitical news, showcasing its role as the only financial market open during the weekend turmoil. Bitcoin, the most prominent asset in the sector, initially plummeted from $66,000 to around $63,600 within minutes of the first reports of strikes on February 28.
However, the asset just as quickly reversed course, jumping to $67,000 later that evening following reports of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at around $66,800, slipping by less than 1% on the day and up 2.8% over the past week, although it remains down more than 20% across the last month.
Hayes Advises Waiting for the Fed Before Buying
While the immediate market reaction has been chaotic, Hayes is urging investors to look past the initial volatility and focus on the anticipated policy response. He noted that every U.S. president since 1985 has engaged militarily in the Middle East, and the financial fallout has consistently been managed with cheaper money.
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For the former BitMEX CEO, the “simple heuristic” for Bitcoin’s rise or fall is that the cost of “nation-building” invariably leads to monetary easing.
“The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism,” he wrote.
Considering that Bitcoin has just suffered through its fifth consecutive month of losses, a streak not seen since 2018, with the asset shedding nearly 15% in February, Hayes has provided a specific trading tactic for the current environment. Given the uncertainty over how long the U.S. will remain engaged and how much financial market pain it can tolerate, he advises a patient approach.
“The prudent action is to wait and see,” said the crypto trader.
He also suggests that the optimal time to “back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins” is not during the initial conflict but immediately after the Fed actually cuts rates or resumes money printing to support the government’s objectives in Iran.
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