Crypto World
Battered BTC price could find solace in ‘debasement’ trade: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The conflict between U.S., Israel and Iran remains the day’s biggest story as the attacks intensify and spread.
Markets reacted as they typically do: by de-risking and sending oil prices higher. Bitcoin dropped to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, having hit a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell over 2%, signaling broader losses in the crypto market and futures tied to the S&P 500 index lost 1%.
Looking past the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the “debasement trade,” a strategy in which investors rotate into scarce-supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a decline in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.
Governments in the U.S. and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their finances will only worsen the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments don’t collect enough in taxes. Instead, they force central banks to “print money” through bond purchases or quantitive easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello debasement.
Traders front-run that process by loading up on store-of-value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on a tear for over a year mainly on debasement flows. BTC did not participate back then. But now, having nearly halved to under $67,000 since October, it looks oversold. The possibility of the debasement trade catalyzing a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.
Besides, historically the Fed turns dovish with liquidity easing during geopolitical stress, supporting asset prices, as Maelstrom Fund’s CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post.
Let’s see how things unfold. In the meantime traders need to watch headline risks and oil upswings. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- March 2: SuperRare to release Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0x
- March 2: Mantra’s OM to change to MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split as the MANTRA Chain upgrades from v6 to v7.
- Macro
- March 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February est. 52.3 (Prev. 52.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32
- March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- PoolTogether DAO is voting to manually resubmit and execute the remaining actions for the PTBR-35 Governance Shutdown after a previous execution error. Voting ends March 2.
- Angle DAO is voting to orderly wind down the EURA and USDA stablecoins, providing users a one-year 1:1 redemption period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting ends March 2.
- GMX DAO is voting to transition to a defined leadership model by hiring a CEO with performance-tied compensation and forming an interim leadership committee to guide the restructuring. Voting ends March 2.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 2: Dovu (DOVU) to be listed on Kraken.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $66,194.78 (24hrs: -0.35%)
- ETH is up 1.48% at $1,950.67 (24hrs: -1.63%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 1,916.46 (24hrs: -1.11%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on Binance

- DXY is up 0.64% at 98.23
- Gold futures are up 3.03% at $5,406.80
- Silver futures are up 2.64% at $95.75
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 58,057.24
- Hang Seng closed down 2.14% at 26,059.85
- FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.89% at 6,022.64
- DJIA closed on Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92
- S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 22,668.21
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.47% at 34,339.99
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 3.966%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 6,817.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 24,650.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.11% at 48,458.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.01
- Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782
- CME Futures Open Interest: 109,280 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 12.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.42%
Technical Analysis

- The chart shows ether’s daily price swings with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the price.
- The gap between the bands has shrunk to $226, the narrowest since June 2025.
- Volatility typically booms when bands narrow, which means the token could soon see big price moves in either direction.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% at $171.60 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% at $8.83
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% at $6.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$27.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.78 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$43 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- Trump says Iran war may last ‘four weeks or less’ as strikes escalate (Euronews): Trump says the Iran war could last four weeks or less as U.S. and Israeli forces continue their strikes in Iran, which is responding with hits on Gulf states, Israel and U.S. targets.
- New Iranian strikes reported across region, including in Saudi Arabia, as US planes crash in Kuwait (BBC): New Iranian strikes were reported across the Middle East, with explosions in Bahrain, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
- U.S. equity futures fall in pre-market trading as oil, gold retreat from highs (CoinDesk): U.S. equities fell in pre-market trading. The Invesco QQQ ETF declined 1.5%. A Saudi Arabia oil refinery was hit by Iran, pushing WTI crude oil as high as $75 per barrel. Gold rallied more than 2% to $5,400 per ounce.
- Hedge funds, insurers rush to gauge exposure as Iran spirals (Bloomberg): Hedge funds, banks and insurers rushed to size up their exposure to the Middle East after weekend attacks on Iran fueled chaos across the region.
Crypto World
Bitcoin miner turned Ethereum treasury firm stakes over $6B in ETH as BMNR shares slide and ether dips.
Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) on Monday reported purchasing nearly 51,000 more ETH tokens last week, increasing its holdings to 4.474 million.
“In the midst of this ‘mini crypto winter,’ our focus continues to be on methodically executing our treasury strategy and steadily acquiring ETH and in turn, optimizing the yield on our ETH holdings,” said Chairman Tom Lee.
The company said it now has 3,040,483 ETH staked, worth about $6 billion at current prices. Lee said annualized staking revenue stands at $172 million. At full scale, staking rewards could reach $253 million annually based on a 2.86% yield over the last seven days, Lee continued.
The company holds 4,473,587 ether (ETH), valued at $1,976 per token, along with 195 bitcoin and $868 million in cash, as well as a $200 million stake in Beast Industries and a $14 million investment in Eightco Holdings. Bitmine said its ether position represents 3.71% of Ethereum’s 120.7 million token supply.
Lee added that the firm is developing its Made in America Validator Network, or MAVAN, a staking platform slated for launch in early 2026. Bitmine said it is working with three staking providers as it builds the network.
Crypto World
BTC takes aim at $69,000 as stocks shrug off Iran strikes
Crypto prices are rebounding from their worst weekend levels in early U.S. trading on Monday alongside a sizable bounce in U.S. equity indices.
Roughly one hour into the session, the Nasdaq is down just 0.1% after futures at one point overnight had indicated a plunge of more than 2%. The S&P 500 and DJIA are also posting just very modest losses.
Gold remains higher by 2% and crude oil by 7%. The U.S. dollar index is having one of its strongest sessions in weeks, gaining 1%.
Bitcoin has moved up to $68,600, ahead 2.3% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is higher by 1.4%, with solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) up similar amounts.
Crypto-related stocks are posting even larger gains, led by Circle’s (CRCL) 12% advance. Strategy (MSTR) is higher by 6% and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) by 4.7%.
On the macro side, the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, for February, marking another month of sector expansion and the first consecutive run of prints above 50 since the fourth quarter of 2022. This follows Friday’s Chicago Business Barometer, which rose to 57.7 in February 2026 from 54 previously and well above expectations of 52.8. The reading signals only the second expansion since November 2023 and reflects the strongest pace of US activity growth since May 2022.
Against the backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, reaccelerating manufacturing activity, hotter-than-expected PPI data last week, and higher oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, a March rate cut now appears effectively off the table ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting.
Normally, that might be considered a headwind for crypto prices, but it’s quite possible that markets had already priced in tighter than previously expected U.S. monetary policy.
Crypto World
Brent Crude Hits $82 as But Risk Looms
The oil price surged sharply this week after conflict in the Middle East pushed Brent crude futures (ICEEUR:BRN1!) to $82, marking its biggest shock in months. Brent is the global oil benchmark, widely used to price international crude, which makes it the clearest measure of the oil price reaction to geopolitical risk.
The breakout is tracked on the CFD (Contract for Difference) charts, which reflect price structure but not actual positions. However, futures data from ICE Futures Europe confirmed real traders entered the market, validating the oil price surge as both a geopolitical and positioning-driven move.
Oil Price Surge and Rising Dollar Create Early Stress at $82
The oil price jumped from around $72 to $82 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The retaliation raised fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route carrying nearly one-fifth of global oil flows. This sudden repricing added a war premium, meaning traders pushed the oil price higher due to expected supply risk rather than immediate shortages.
This shock triggered a gap-up opening in Brent crude oil. Such moves often face early stress because markets tend to retest part of the jump before continuing higher.
That stress appeared near $82, as Brent crude oil corrected to $79.
The latest candle closed red with elevated volume. Volume in red indicates more trading occurred as the oil price corrected post-gap-up, indicating active selling pressure.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks dollar strength against major currencies, has also been rising. Since oil trades globally in dollars, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for international buyers. A bearish sign.
But another key indicator shows the full picture. Open interest, often called OI, has risen sharply on Brent futures (ICEEUR:BRN1!). Rising open interest means new traders are entering the market rather than closing positions. This validates the short-term bullish bias.
This shows the oil price is not falling due to a lack of interest. Instead, the market is absorbing selling while new positions continue building. However, traders need to keep an eye out for the flattening open interest.
Price rising while open interest is flat means the move is likely driven by short covering, not new buying, so the trend is weaker and may not sustain.
OPEC Supply Increase Adds Future Risk Even as War Drives Current Price
At the same time, OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, announced it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. OPEC is a group of major oil-producing nations that control a large share of global supply.
Normally, a higher supply reduces the oil price because more oil becomes available.
However, the oil price continued rising because war risk affects supply immediately, while OPEC’s production increase happens later. This creates a conflict between short-term supply fears and longer-term supply growth.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to this risk. Even the possibility of disruption is enough to keep traders cautious and maintain upward pressure on the oil price. This also explains why open interest has started to flatline and why selling pressure emerged after the gap-up opening, as traders remain cautious about chasing the oil price higher while the risk of sudden supply and macro shifts remains elevated.
Futures Positioning Shows Market Is Preparing for a Larger Oil Price Move
Futures positioning shows the oil price breakout is attracting strong participation. The sharp rise in open interest on Brent crude oil futures (ICEEUR: BRN1!), seen earlier, confirms that traders are actively opening new positions as volatility increases.
This positioning trend is spreading beyond traditional markets. Platforms like Aster, a crypto-based derivatives exchange, have launched oil perpetual futures.
The rise in oil trading on crypto platforms shows how widespread the positioning has become. It reflects broad positioning across financial markets.
Key oil price levels are tracked using the Brent crude CFD, while the Brent crude oil Futures are used to track volume and open interest.
Per the chart, the first resistance remains $82, which aligns with the Fibonacci retracement (mentioned later).
If the oil price breaks above $82, the next target becomes $85, based on the ascending channel breakout projection. Above that, the next resistance levels appear at $93 and $104 if geopolitical risk continues. Adding to this current strength is the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioning.
This measures the average price over time while giving more weight to recent data, and recently confirmed a golden crossover where the 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA, a signal that previously preceded the latest upward move. The 100-day EMA is now rising toward the 200-day EMA, showing strengthening trend support.
If that bullish crossover confirms, the $85 target, based on the ascending channel’s projection, might show up first.
However, the most important support level is $75.
If the oil price falls below $75, it could decline toward $73 and $71. However, the bullish structure only weakens on possible peace talks and a dip under $67.
Crypto World
Samar Sen on Institutional Crypto Adoption: Regulation & Controls
Institutional engagement with digital assets is no longer a uniform story. In recent years, major financial institutions have taken markedly different approaches to blockchain-based markets. Some have focused on tokenization, putting traditional instruments into programmable form. Banks, meanwhile, have explored tokenized deposit models and internal settlement rails as well as issuing their own digital assets like stablecoins.
Amid the growing wave of institutional capital entering digital assets, the more revealing question is not who participates, but how participation is governed inside the institution. Regulatory requirements, operational standards, and internal conviction often determine whether a strategy moves forward or stalls.
Speaking exclusively with BeInCrypto at Liquidity Summit 2026 in Hong Kong, Samar Sen, Head of International Markets at Talos, shared how those internal dynamics play out when institutions evaluate digital asset opportunities.
Adoption Requires More Than Rules
According to Sen, regulatory clarity remains the most decisive factor in institutional participation. He noted that progress across jurisdictions has helped reduce uncertainty, but clear rules remain essential for large-scale adoption.
“We’ve seen a lot of advancements in regulation all over the world,” Sen acknowledged.
While once the dominant concern, infrastructure has matured significantly. Institutional-grade custody, execution platforms, and portfolio management systems now operate across major markets, addressing many of the operational gaps that previously slowed adoption.
Yet even where regulatory frameworks have advanced, and infrastructure is in place, in many institutions, the remaining hurdle is internal. He said:
“There may be management that is still evaluating the underlying tech or still need some time to get around understanding the potential of the tech to revolutionize finance.”
That hesitation often reflects unfamiliarity rather than outright resistance, he added. For institutions built on decades of precedent, conviction takes time. As a result, digital asset initiatives can stall even when the external conditions appear favorable.
The Compliance Checklist Behind Institutional Trust
When asked what signals actually build trust for institutions evaluating crypto counterparties, Sen pushed back on the idea that visibility alone carries weight. While he acknowledged that industry gatherings and brand presence may help with awareness, institutional trust is earned differently.
“Typically, what builds trust will be, first of all, licensed or regulated entities within their jurisdictions,” Sen said.
He also added that institutions look for demonstrable internal controls, such as SOC 2 Type II certifications, audit trails, and operational safeguards. Track record also matters, particularly if leadership has experience in traditional finance and has built a reputation for delivering under regulatory scrutiny.
Peer adoption plays a role as well. Institutions often look outward, assessing who else is using the same infrastructure and how widely it has been adopted across the industry. He explained:
“If you’re a big bank, and you go to talk to a vendor to provide you with technology, if that vendor is providing that technology to some of your peers and competitors, that’s another way that can establish some kind of trust.”
Not All Institutions Move at the Same Speed
Although regulatory clarity and operational safeguards form the foundation, institutions are not entering digital assets uniformly. Sen described three distinct profiles emerging in the market.
Some organizations act as early movers. These firms understand the structural shift underway in capital markets and are willing to commit resources ahead of full certainty. They tend to invest in building internal digital asset teams and engage proactively with new infrastructure providers.
Others take a more measured approach. These fast followers prefer to wait for clearer regulatory direction or proof of concept before scaling exposure. Their risk appetite is lower, and they often rely on external validation before committing capital.
Then there are institutions that remain behind the curve. In some cases, leadership has yet to develop conviction around the underlying technology. In others, digital asset initiatives exist but lack internal coordination, resulting in fragmented or misaligned strategies.
Sen noted that institutions should not be expected to move in lockstep. He added that different risk tolerances and internal mandates shape the pace of adoption.
“And that’s okay because with digital assets and the underlying technology, there are many entry points to participate in the asset class, to get comfortable with the new providers and ecosystem participants. We are here to help navigate that.”
Crypto World
Chinese banks freeze accounts over crypto memos
While regulation continues to loosen around crypto in the United States, largely thanks to a president who accepts bribes via his own meme and stablecoins, the opposite is occurring in China.
Indeed, dozens of Chinese nationals have taken to social media to report that just putting “Dogecoin” or “USDT” in the memo field of a transfer ends with the bank account being frozen — and the individuals have almost no recourse for their money getting unfrozen thereafter.
Drastic difference in banking regulations
Despite the near total normalization of buying, selling, trading, and creating cryptocurrencies in the US — including a stablecoin endorsed and partially owned by the president — China and its retail banks have taken on a much stricter set of rules and regulations.
In one instance, according to a site called Techub.info in China, two clients of China Construction Bank (the third largest bank in the world) had their accounts frozen after transferring a mere 250 yuan, or $35, between one another with the memo “Dogecoin this week.”
After sending the money the bank flagged the transfer under its virtual currency control risk management program.
Rednote users warn Chinese citizens
On Rednote, users are sharing the story with words of warning for others in China: never put bitcoin, virtual currency, any memecoin, or USDT as the reason for a fund transfer or you will absolutely face an account freeze.

Read more: China’s Regulation 42 forces Tether to kill its CNHT stablecoin
They add that the only way to get one’s bank account unfrozen is to prove to to bank officials that money wasn’t in fact used to purchase cryptocurrencies, write a statement as to why a cryptocurrency was referenced, and wait for the statements to be reviewed.
The entire process can take weeks to occur, if the account is unfrozen at all.
Needless to say, Chinese citizens are being more cautious than ever before when it comes to using their bank accounts for cryptocurrency trading.
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Crypto World
Which Crypto Would Suffer the Most? (4 AIs Respond)
Check out which tokens may plummet by 90% if such a scenario unfolded.
The global geopolitical tension escalated over the weekend after the USA and Israel carried out mutual attacks on Iran, creating a sudden surge of uncertainty that quickly spread across the region and beyond.
The military operation struck many targets and eventually led to the liquidation of Ali Khamenei (the supreme leader of the Asian country). Iran retaliated against several nations in the region, including the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The American president, Donald Trump, warned that the war may continue for up to four weeks, while leading European economies (some of which are nuclear powers), such as France, Germany, and the UK, have hinted that they may “defend their interest” and join the conflict soon.
Right now, the world is watching the Middle East with growing concern, as the risk of a wider conflict and even a potential World War III seems more real than it has in years. Beyond the countless human lives this devastating event would claim, it would also send shockwaves through global financial and crypto markets. To explore the potential impact, we asked four of the most popular AI-powered chatbots which digital assets would be hit the hardest if such a scenario unfolded.
Small Alts, Memes, and More
ChatGPT started with a disclaimer, stating that a world war will not be just “bad news” but cause a “systemic liquidity shock.” It predicted that such a conflict would lead to immediate market panic, with equities dumping and credit freezing. In that kind of environment, crypto would get hit just as hard as everything else.
The chatbot suggested that small-cap altcoins are at the highest risk because they have thin liquidity, few real buyers, and heavy retail exposure. It alerted that cryptocurrencies, whose market capitalization is under $100 million and whose use-cases are dubious, may collapse by up to 90% in a World War III scenario.
Another sector that may experience a real carnage is the meme coin niche. According to ChatGPT, tokens like PEPE, BONK, WIF, and FLOKI can plummet to zero since they are sentiment-driven and notorious for their enhanced volatility:
“In a true risk-off event like a global war, speculative appetite collapses first, and liquidity in meme tokens can disappear within hours.”
Google’s Gemini agreed with ChatGPT’s assumption. It forecasted that such a major conflict could have a devastating effect on small and mid-cap altcoins and meme coins due to mass panic selling and total lack of buyers.
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Perplexity focused specifically on the biggest meme coins by market cap, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), estimating they would likely suffer the most due to their “extreme sensitivity to risk-off sentiment and lack of fundamental utility.”
Grok, the chatbot integrated within X, presented a rather different thesis. It claimed that stablecoins like Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC could be among the biggest victims due to their connection to the American dollar:
“Stablecoins are pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies like the USD, backed by reserves in banks, Treasuries, or other assets. In WW3, if major economies like the US face hyperinflation, debt defaults, or banking freezes (as seen in historical wars), these reserves could become worthless or inaccessible. In a global war, peg breaks could lead to total devaluation, turning them into “digital IOUs” for a collapsing dollar.”
How About BTC?
All four chatbots we consulted argued that Bitcoin would plunge substantially immediately after a potential announcement of a global war, but would remain the most resilient asset in the crypto sector. They also suggested that, despite the initial shock, BTC could recover its losses relatively quickly compared to the rest of the market.
“BTC would likely drop sharply alongside other risk assets as investors rush to liquidity. However, if the conflict leads to monetary instability or aggressive money printing, BTC could recover faster than most altcoins as its decentralziation and “digital gold” narrative regain strength,” ChatGPT stated.
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Crypto World
US margin debt reached all-time highs as crypto lost $2 trillion
The highest level of margin utilization by US traders in history has, unfortunately, led to historic underperformance in crypto prices as speculators re-learned timeless wisdom: leverage works both ways.
After spending 2025 through January 2026 building their largest leveraged positions in history, bets on digital assets have unraveled with unnerving speed.
In January 2026, US margin debt had surged to a record $1.28 trillion — its ninth consecutive monthly increase and a 50% rise from April 2025. That financial leverage added bids to crypto assets which made new all-time highs in May, July, August, and October 2025.
Then, despite investors continuing to pile on more margin debt than ever, prices collapsed 47% and shed $2 trillion in combined market capitalization as a sector rotation to AI and precious metals ensued.
Crypto losses since October are staggering.

US margin debt increased $53 billion from December to January alone. Worse, the ratio of margin to real disposable personal income exceeded 6.0% in January for the first time on record.
That ratio measures more financial leverage in January 2026 relative to income than the dot-com mania.
Leverage-fueled demand flows into crypto instruments like bitcoin (BTC) futures, spot and leveraged ETFs, call options, and publicly traded crypto companies. Although more leverage can amplify gains, it also amplifies crashes.
Although traditional margin statistics are an incomplete measure of total systemic risk on crypto, which has vast quantities of opaque exchanges and trade data APIs controlled by offshore entities with little to no regulatory oversight, it can nonetheless inform some analysis about the causes of crypto volatility.
A supernova of crypto leverage that wiped out $2 trillion
Some crypto derivatives traders spent mid-2025 building their largest leveraged positions in history, then watched all of their paper gains evaporate.
Aggregate crypto futures open interest peaked above $220 billion on October 6, 2025. Within a week, the industry began to crash and never looked back.
October 10 produced more than $19 billion in total liquidations across exchanges, according to CoinGlass data — the single largest day of forced closures in crypto history.
Many saw Binance as a convenient scapegoat.
Read more: Crypto traders consider lawsuits after $600B market meltdown
Record-setting volatility continued amid record-setting margin levels. On February 5, 2026, another flash-crash drove BTC from $73,000 to $62,000 and wiped out 10-figure position values within a single day.
Worst day of realized losses from BTC liquidations
Glassnode estimated that February 5’s crash produced $3.2 billion in realized losses from liquidated BTC trades — the largest single-day realized loss in Glassnode’s recorded history that surpassed even October 10, 2025, the FTX bankruptcy in November 2022, or the May 2022 collapse of Terra/Luna.
By late February, crypto’s margin trading hangover had set in.
CoinGlass’ Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to five out of 100 — a never-before-seen rating that exceeded its Three Arrows Capital bankruptcy low of six in June 2022, and its COVID-19 low of seven in March 2020.
As of writing, the index still remains near historic lows at nine, or “extreme fear.”
Losses amid record margin levels have also drawn out spot BTC from US ETFs. Specifically, spot BTC ETFs lost $4.5 billion in net outflows through the first eight weeks of 2026, according to Investing.com.
The leveraged unwind of Strategy
Adding insult to injury, software company-turned-leveraged BTC acquirer Strategy became the most-shorted large cap stock in the US last month, according to data from FactSet cited by multiple outlets.
The company held 717,722 BTC over this weekend, purchased at an average cost near $76,020 per coin. With BTC trading in the mid-$60,000s, the company faces unrealized losses in the billions.
Margined short-sales against Strategy and its BTC, in this case, have actually stood out as a rare success story amid crypto’s margin mania of January 2026.
Leverage always works both ways. Although US margin debt at $1.28 trillion is an incredible headline, the real story is that leverage has seeped into every layer of crypto valuations — from listed securities in brokerage accounts to perpetual swap venues in tax havens.
With losses liquidating collateral and forcing cascading sales, each layer’s losses have been feeding the next since October.
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Crypto World
Aave’s “Aave Will Win” Proposal Passes Temp Check, Advancing Governance Shift
The “Aave Will Win” governance proposal has successfully passed the Temp Check vote, garnering 52.58% support, and is now progressing to the Aave Request for Final Comment (ARFC) stage, marking a significant step for Aave’s future development.
In a closely watched governance decision for one of DeFi’s largest protocols, the “Aave Will Win” framework has passed its initial Temp Check vote, moving the proposal forward in Aave DAO’s multi-stage governance process.
The off-chain Snapshot vote, designed to gauge community sentiment ahead of more binding stages, closed with approximately 52.58% in favor, 42% against, and roughly 5% abstaining. This approval clears the first formal hurdle and advances the framework to the Aave Request for Final Comment (ARFC) phase, where structural and implementation details will be refined based on community feedback before any on-chain vote occurs.
A Token-Centric Model
The “Aave Will Win” framework proposes a fundamental shift in how Aave’s economic value is distributed and how Aave Labs is funded: it would direct 100% of product revenue generated by Aave products to the AAVE token and DAO treasury, aligning incentives between token holders and the protocol’s builders.
Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave and long-time steward of the protocol, confirmed the result on social media shortly after the vote closed, framing the outcome as a step toward a fully token-centric model for the ecosystem.
“Temp Check for the Aave Will Win proposal has passed,” Kulechov wrote. “This brings Aave Labs closer to a fully token-centric model, directing 100% of product revenue to the $AAVE token,” he wrote, underscoring the strategic shift.”
Kulechov followed up with additional remarks reaffirming the protocol’s direction and the DAO’s role in shaping the final structure as the proposal progresses.
Governance Debate and Split Vote
Despite the ultimate approval, the vote exposed ongoing tensions within Aave’s governance community. The margin was relatively narrow, and earlier debate on the forums and in governance reports highlighted deep divisions over funding levels, the size of token allocations to Aave Labs, and how decentralized authority should evolve.
Following the vote, Marc Zeller, founder of the Aave Chan Initiative, published a detailed post-mortem analyzing the Temp Check results, noting that when excluding votes from several large Aave Labs–linked addresses, the broader community actually tilted against the proposal.
Zeller’s analysis argued that while many delegates support the general direction of “Aave Will Win,” concerns remain about fiscal guardrails, capital deployment phases, and independence from Labs’ influence.
What Comes Next
With the Temp Check cleared, the Aave Will Win proposal now enters the ARFC stage, where community feedback will be folded into a more detailed governance proposal that may ultimately be put to an on-chain Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) vote. Only through an AIP vote would any commitments become binding.
If the framework ultimately garners approval in that final vote, it could reshape Aave’s economic and governance model, formalizing revenue alignment with token holders and setting V4 as the long-term technical foundation for future growth.
With the proposal’s advancement, the focus now shifts to the ARFC stage, where further community input will shape the final outcome. The proposal’s progress is a testament to the robust governance framework that empowers Aave’s community to steer its future direction.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.
Crypto World
Strategy Adds 3,015 Bitcoin as Holdings Top 720,737 BTC
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public holder of Bitcoin, completed its 101st Bitcoin purchase, pushing its total holdings above 720,000 BTC.
The company acquired 3,015 Bitcoin (BTC) for $204.1 million last week, according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday.

The average buy price of its latest purchase was $67,700 per BTC, marking another purchase well below the company’s average acquisition price of $75,985.
The purchase brings its holdings to 720,737 BTC, acquired for a total cost of about $54.8 billion, the company disclosed.
Another buy below Strategy’s cost basis
The latest buy is one of a small number of Strategy purchases made below the company’s average cost basis, according to data compiled by SaylorTracker, a website that tracks Strategy’s bitcoin acquisitions.
The first such purchase occurred on Feb. 9, when the company bought 1,142 BTC as market prices dipped below $76,051 during the week. Strategy reported the average acquisition price of that batch at $78,815, above the market price at the time.

Strategy encountered a similar situation around 2022-2023, when BTC price dipped below its cost basis of around $30,600. The company completed a total of seven purchases of 28,560 BTC during that below-cost period.
MSTR shares rise modestly while Bitcoin trades near $65,800
Strategy (MSTR) shares saw some upward momentum last week, rising from around $125 on Monday to nearly $130 by Friday, according to TradingView.
Bitcoin, however, remained largely flat over the same period. The crypto asset started the week near $65,000, briefly surged above $69,000 on Wednesday, and dipped below $64,000 before stabilizing. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $65,834, according to TradingView.
Related: Strategy yield wrapper lands in Europe as 21Shares lists STRC ETP
The news came after Strategy chairman Saylor announced on Sunday that the company is raising the dividend on its STRC preferred stock, also known as “Stretch,” to 11.50% for March 2026, from the previous 11.25%.
The capital raised through the stock can be used for corporate purposes, including potential Bitcoin acquisitions.
Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security
Crypto World
Iran Tensions Spark Major European Gas Price Rally as LNG Routes Face Disruption
TLDR
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Natural gas prices across Europe experienced dramatic increases following disruptions to LNG transportation routes through the Strait of Hormuz linked to Iranian conflict.
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Production facilities operated by QatarEnergy were forced offline following drone strikes, creating immediate global LNG supply constraints.
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Benchmark Dutch TTF gas contracts climbed by up to 49% in intraday trading amid mounting supply anxieties.
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LNG imports have become critical for Europe’s energy security after the continent pivoted away from Russian gas in 2022.
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Market experts caution that extended supply disruptions could drive European gas prices significantly higher while straining worldwide energy availability.
Natural gas markets in Europe experienced substantial price increases as Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions threatened critical energy transportation corridors. Trading activity reflected heightened concerns over liquefied natural gas delivery reliability.

During early trading hours, European gas valuations jumped approximately 25%. The Dutch TTF benchmark contract subsequently accelerated, posting gains approaching 49% at peak levels.
Price movements came as regional military tensions escalated dramatically. Disruptions connected to Iranian military activities have impacted maritime operations through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints.
This narrow waterway facilitates substantial volumes of international LNG trade. Vessel movements have declined considerably as security threats mounted.
Following drone strikes on its infrastructure, QatarEnergy suspended operations at natural gas production sites. The government-controlled operator supplies approximately 20% of worldwide LNG exports.
European Vulnerability to Supply Shocks
European nations face significant vulnerability to LNG supply interruptions. The continent dramatically reduced Russian pipeline gas dependence following 2022’s energy upheaval.
Qatari sources now provide substantial volumes of Europe’s LNG requirements. Numerous cargoes transit the Strait of Hormuz en route to European import facilities.
Storage levels decline throughout winter heating demand periods. European nations must consequently increase LNG purchases to replenish stockpiles.
Market analysts drew comparisons to circumstances observed during 2022’s crisis. That episode produced industrial closures and accelerated inflation throughout European economies.
Goldman Sachs projected that a one-month suspension of LNG transits through the Strait would likely more than double European gas valuations. Benchmark prices could reach €74 per megawatt hour in such circumstances.
Should disruptions extend beyond two months, prices might exceed €100 per megawatt hour. Historical data shows such elevated pricing previously forced substantial demand destruction across the continent.
Broader Energy Market Impacts
Commodity markets swiftly incorporated supply risk assessments. Oil prices advanced as market participants factored in potential regional disruption scenarios.
Approximately 80 million tonnes of LNG flow through the Strait of Hormuz annually. This volume constitutes roughly 19% of total global supply.
Crude oil movements through this strategic waterway similarly underpin global energy systems. Roughly 20% of worldwide petroleum production traverses these waters.
Reports emerged over the weekend of three oil tankers sustaining damage in regional waters. Shipping uncertainties have amplified price fluctuations.
Transportation costs for crude carriers have escalated sharply in recent trading periods. Certain Gulf-to-Asia shipping routes have experienced threefold rate increases over thirty days.
Asian LNG markets confront comparable price pressure risks. Interconnected global gas trading means supply disruptions in one region ripple across others.
Domestic U.S. natural gas pricing has demonstrated relatively muted responses thus far. Export infrastructure operates near maximum capacity, constraining the ability to rapidly boost outbound volumes.
European market participants continue monitoring LNG supply chain resilience closely. Trading sentiment hinges on whether Strait of Hormuz shipping operations normalize within upcoming weeks.
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