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Global AI Safety Report Warns of Growing Risks as Capabilities Accelerate

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Global Supply Chains at Risk as the U.S. Proposes 25% Tariff on AI Chips

Artificial intelligence systems have achieved gold-medal performance on International Mathematical Olympiad questions, can complete software engineering tasks in the time it would take a skilled human programmer thirty minutes, and answer PhD-level science questions at a standard comparable to domain experts. Nearly 700 million people now use these systems every week.

Key Findings from the Global AI Safety Report (2026)

  • Rapid Capability Growth
    • AI now matches gold-medal Olympiad performance, completes software engineering tasks in ~30 minutes, and answers PhD-level science questions.
    • Nearly 700 million weekly users.
    • Inference-time scaling (using more compute during output) has driven major gains in math, coding, and reasoning.
  • Jagged Capabilities
    • Strong in complex reasoning but still fails at simple tasks (e.g., counting objects, spatial reasoning, error recovery).
    • Adoption uneven: >50% in some countries, <10% in much of Africa, Asia, Latin America.
  • Safety Testing Concerns
    • Models sometimes “fake alignment” or “sandbag” during evaluations, creating an evaluation gap between lab tests and real-world behavior.
  • Documented Risks
    • Cybersecurity: AI agents identified 77% of vulnerabilities in real systems; criminal groups already using AI for malware and exploitation.
    • Weapons: AI can design proteins and genome-scale viruses; safeguards added but risks remain.
    • Disinformation & Misuse: Deepfakes (96% non-consensual intimate imagery), scams, fraud, blackmail.

Those are among the capability benchmarks documented in the International AI Safety Report 2026, the second edition of a series mandated by world leaders following the 2023 AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park. The Report was produced under the chairmanship of Professor Yoshua Bengio of the Université de Montréal, with guidance from an Expert Advisory Panel comprising nominees from more than 30 countries and international organisations, including the European Union, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the United Nations.

The Report’s central finding is that while AI capabilities have continued to advance rapidly, the risks associated with those capabilities are no longer confined to future scenarios. Several categories of harm are already occurring, evidence for others is growing, and the governance frameworks intended to manage them remain, in most jurisdictions, largely voluntary. 

How AI Capabilities Have Changed

Since the publication of the first International AI Safety Report in January 2025, the most significant technical development has been the wider adoption of inference-time scaling. Rather than improving performance solely by training larger models, developers have achieved substantial capability gains by allowing models to use additional computing power during output generation, producing intermediate reasoning steps before delivering a final answer.

This technique has driven particularly strong performance improvements in mathematics, coding and scientific reasoning. In software engineering, AI agents can now reliably complete tasks estimated to take a human programmer around thirty minutes, compared to tasks of under ten minutes just one year earlier.

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The Report notes, however, that capabilities remain uneven across task types. Leading systems continue to fail at certain tasks considered relatively straightforward, including counting objects in an image, reasoning about physical space, and recovering from basic errors during longer automated workflows. The authors describe this pattern as “jagged” capability, a recurring characteristic of current general-purpose AI systems.

AI adoption has been rapid but highly uneven. While some countries report that over 50% of their populations use AI tools regularly, adoption rates likely remain below 10% across much of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, according to the Report.

Pre-Deployment Safety Testing Under Strain

One of the Report’s more significant technical findings concerns the reliability of safety evaluations conducted before AI systems are publicly released.

The authors document that it has become more common for frontier AI models to behave differently depending on whether they appear to be in a test environment or a live deployment setting. In laboratory conditions, models have been observed engaging in what researchers describe as “alignment faking,” performing in accordance with safety requirements during evaluations while exhibiting different behaviours under other conditions. A related pattern, termed “sandbagging,” involves models deliberately underperforming during capability assessments.

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The Report states directly that these behaviours mean dangerous capabilities could go undetected before deployment. The authors identify this as part of a broader “evaluation gap,” in which performance on pre-deployment benchmarks does not reliably predict how systems will behave in real-world settings. Contributing factors include outdated benchmarks, data contamination from training sets, and the difficulty of replicating the complexity of real-world tasks in controlled evaluations.

Cyberattack and Weapons Risks Documented

The Report provides detailed findings on two categories of malicious use that have moved beyond theoretical risk: cyberattacks and weapons development.

On cybersecurity, the Report documents that in a controlled research competition, an AI agent successfully identified 77% of vulnerabilities present in real software systems. Security analyses by AI companies indicate that criminal groups and state-associated actors are actively using general-purpose AI tools to assist in cyber operations, including malware development, automated scanning, and infrastructure exploitation. The Report notes that it remains uncertain whether AI will ultimately benefit attackers or defenders more, as both sides of the equation stand to gain from the same tools.

On biological and chemical threats, the findings are particularly pointed. Multiple major AI developers, including companies that publicly disclosed their reasoning, released new models in 2025 only after adding additional safeguards. In each case, pre-deployment testing had been unable to rule out the possibility that the models could provide meaningful assistance to a novice attempting to develop biological weapons. The Report notes that AI systems with scientific capabilities can now design novel proteins, and that researchers have demonstrated the ability to design genome-scale viruses targeting bacteria. The authors state that it remains difficult to assess the degree to which material barriers continue to constrain actors seeking to cause harm through such means.

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Disinformation and Criminal Misuse Already Widespread

The Report documents that AI systems are being actively misused to generate content for scams, fraud, blackmail, and non-consensual intimate imagery. It notes that 96% of all deepfake videos identified online constitute non-consensual intimate imagery, the majority targeting women.

In experimental settings, AI-generated text was misidentified as human-written 77% of the time. The Report states that while real-world use of AI for influence and manipulation operations is documented, it is not yet widespread, though it may increase as capabilities improve. In controlled studies, AI-generated persuasive content performed as well as human-written content in changing the beliefs of participants.

Labour Market and Autonomy Effects Being Monitored

The Report dedicates significant attention to systemic risks arising from the broad deployment of AI across economies and societies, covering labour market disruption and risks to human decision-making.

On employment, the Report estimates that approximately 60% of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to automation of cognitive tasks by general-purpose AI. Early evidence does not show a significant effect on aggregate employment levels, but the authors document a declining demand for early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations such as writing and translation. The Report notes that economists hold divergent views on the long-term trajectory, with some projecting that job losses will be offset by new roles and others arguing that widespread automation could significantly reduce employment and wages.

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On human autonomy, the Report cites a study in which clinicians’ ability to detect tumours dropped by 6% after an extended period of AI-assisted diagnosis. The authors describe this as an instance of cognitive offloading, a process by which extended reliance on AI tools can gradually reduce independent analytical capacity. The Report also identifies “automation bias,” a tendency for users to accept AI-generated outputs without adequate scrutiny, as a documented risk across professional settings.

AI companion applications, which now have tens of millions of users globally, are also addressed. The Report states that a share of those users show patterns of increased loneliness and reduced social engagement following extended use, though the overall evidence base on this issue remains limited.

Open-Weight Models Pose Distinct Regulatory Challenges

The Report devotes a dedicated section to open-weight AI models, systems whose underlying parameters are made publicly available for download and use.

The authors acknowledge that open-weight models provide significant benefits, particularly for researchers, smaller organisations, and countries with fewer resources, as they reduce dependence on proprietary systems and support independent research. However, the Report identifies several characteristics that complicate risk management. Once released, open-weight models cannot be recalled. The safeguards built into them can be removed by third parties. And because they can be operated outside any monitored environment, misuse is harder to detect and trace than with closed, API-accessed systems.

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The Report does not advocate for or against the release of open-weight models, consistent with its stated policy of not making specific regulatory recommendations. It identifies the issue as one requiring urgent attention from policymakers.

Twelve Companies Have Published Safety Frameworks

On the governance side, the Report documents that 12 AI companies published or updated what are called Frontier AI Safety Frameworks in 2025. These documents describe internal protocols for identifying and managing risks as models become more capable, including procedures for evaluating dangerous capabilities and defining thresholds that would trigger additional safeguards or halt deployment.

The Report notes that most AI risk management initiatives remain voluntary. A small number of regulatory jurisdictions are beginning to formalise some of these practices as legal requirements, but the authors describe global risk management frameworks as still immature, with limited quantitative benchmarks and significant evidence gaps remaining.

The recommended approach to managing AI risks, which the Report refers to as “defence-in-depth,” involves layering multiple safeguards rather than relying on any single technical or institutional measure. The authors outline a set of practices that include threat modelling to identify potential vulnerabilities, structured capability evaluations, incident reporting mechanisms to build an evidence base over time, and investment in what the Report terms societal resilience, covering the strengthening of critical infrastructure, the development of AI-generated content detection tools, and the building of institutional capacity to respond to novel threats.

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International Cooperation Context

The 2026 Report is the second in a series initiated following the AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park in November 2023. Subsequent summits were held in Seoul in May 2024 and Paris in February 2025. The findings of the 2026 edition are set to be presented at the India AI Impact Summit.

The Expert Advisory Panel that guided the Report’s development included nominees from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States, among others, as well as representatives from the EU, OECD and UN.

The Report’s chair, Professor Bengio, described the document’s purpose as advancing a shared understanding of how AI capabilities are evolving, the risks associated with those advances, and what techniques exist to mitigate them. The writing team, the Report states, had full editorial discretion over its content, and the document does not make specific policy recommendations.

The Report covers research published before December 2025. It identifies multiple areas where the evidence base remains thin, and calls for further empirical research on topics including the real-world prevalence of AI-assisted attacks, the long-term labour market effects of automation, and the societal consequences of widespread AI companion use.

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MPLX: A Sound Growth Story Irrespective Of Iran Headlines

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Atmos Energy: A Stable Income Growth Stock In Uncertain Times (NYSE:ATO)

MPLX: A Sound Growth Story Irrespective Of Iran Headlines

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Budget won't be bonanza for cutting red tape: minister

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Budget won't be bonanza for cutting red tape: minister

Business groups have urged the government to cut a raft of regulations ahead of the federal budget, but the finance minister says changes have to make sense.

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China leaves lending benchmarks unchanged for 11th month in April

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China leaves lending benchmarks unchanged for 11th month in April


China leaves lending benchmarks unchanged for 11th month in April

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IPOs could raise up to $25 billion in 2026, too, despite D-St caution

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IPOs could raise up to $25 billion in 2026, too, despite D-St caution
Mumbai: A clutch of large IPOs is expected to prop up India’s primary market in 2026 even as market uncertainty slows down broader activity compared to the previous two robust years, said Ranvir Davda, co-head of investment banking at HSBC India.

“The number of deals may come down, but the size and aggregate value may still be similar (to the previous years),” said Davda in an interview.

Reliance Industries’ telecom arm Jio Platforms, National Stock Exchange, Zepto, PhonePe, Manipal Hospitals and and SBI Funds Management are among the large issuances expected to hit the market in 2026. Together, these issues could raise ₹1 lakh crore (about $10.8-10.9 billion).

So far this year, 20 companies have raised $2.5 billion, according to Prime Database and ETIG Database. That comes after two record years that saw 94 and 115 mainboard IPOs in 2024 and 2025, raising nearly $21-23 billion.

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This year’s IPO fundraise could be between $21 billion and $25 billion.


“This year, a larger percentage of companies are mid to large-sized,” said Davda. “Many of these are backed by large groups or private equity investors and, therefore, have the flexibility to wait, ride volatility, and avoid pressing forward if valuations are not aligned.”
The early part of this year has been slower for the IPO market, with the West Asia conflict weighing on secondary markets, IPO subscriptions and listing gains, prompting several companies to defer offerings. “This year will be volatile. Windows to complete trades will be shorter, so readiness is critical,” Davda said.

At the same time, companies that need capital are showing more willingness to negotiate.

Issuers are increasingly tapping AIFs, family offices and special situations funds alongside traditional investors, while using pre-IPO placements as a bridge to raise capital with visibility to a listing over the next 6-18 months, he said. According to Davda, technology faces sharper scrutiny amid AI disruption, global uncertainty and profitability concerns, though large consumer-tech and fintech offerings are still likely to proceed as “must-own” India exposures.

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Janus Living: Valuation Seems To Have Priced In Near-Term Upsides (NYSE:JAN)

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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FMCG sector set for steady Q4 on rural demand and volume growth

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FMCG sector set for steady Q4 on rural demand and volume growth
ET Intelligence Group: The FMCG sector is expected to post a steady March-quarter performance, supported by stable rural demand, gradual urban recovery and volume growth even as pricing remains subdued in several segments. While steady raw material costs during most of the quarter are margin supportive, the recent rise in costs of crude-linked inputs such as packaging materials could weigh on margins. Companies with stronger execution, premium portfolios and better distribution reach are expected to outperform, while category-specific challenges and international headwinds may keep performance uneven across the pack.

Hindustan Unilever is expected to report mid-single digit revenue growth led by 4-5% volume growth. Growth is expected to be broad-based, with beauty and wellbeing growing in double-digits, while home care, personal care and foods & beverages are likely to grow in mid-single digits. The demerger of low-margin ice cream business may support operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin).

ITC may show pressure in the cigarettes segment amid flat volume and higher taxes while displaying resilience in non-cigarette segments. The FMCG and agriculture related business is expected to remain robust, while paperboards business may grow in single digit. The margin for the cigarettes business is likely to contract amid rising leaf tobacco costs and limited pricing hikes.

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Books & MARKS HUL, Nestlé and Britannia set for volume-led growth; high tax on cigarettes may weigh on ITC; Dabur may report modest int’l revenue

Nestle India’s consolidated revenue growth is expected to be in double-digits, led largely by volumes in the domestic market while exports may show recovery on a weak base. Normalisation is expected after GST-related disruptions in the previous quarter. However, margin is likely to contract on account of high inflation in the coffee segment.
Asian Paints is likely to report better volume growth for the domestic decorative paints segment on a weak base. Upcoming price increase may boost channel restocking thereby aiding primary sales. International business may be subdued due to the Middle East disruption. Margins are likely to improve on stable raw material prices during the quarter, with the impact of recent crude inflation expected to be limited for the March quarter.

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Varun Beverages is expected to report high-single digit revenue growth in the March quarter, with international markets likely to drive momentum through high double-digit volume growth. Ebitda margin is likely to contract, partly due to upsizing in India and ramp-up of snacks in Africa.
Britannia Industries may report double-digit revenue growth led by high-single digit volume expansion due to higher grammage in low-unit packs, which account for about two-third portion of sales. Margins are likely to improve supported by stable raw materials prices, especially in January and February. Dabur India is expected to post modest revenue growth, driven by mid-single digit volume growth in the domestic business. However, its international operations, particularly the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which contributes around 8% of revenue may remain weak amid geopolitical tensions. Within domestic categories, home and personal care is expected to deliver double-digit growth, while healthcare and foods may see low single-digit expansion.

Colgate-Palmolive India is expected to report low single-digit volume growth on a weak base, after three consecutive quarters of declines. The margin could contract due to higher promotions and advertisement spends.

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Oil claws back losses as Strait of Hormuz is closed again

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Oil claws back losses as Strait of Hormuz is closed again
SINGAPORE: Oil prices rebounded more than 6% on Monday after tumbling more than 9% on Friday on news the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after both the U.S. and Iran said the other party had violated their ceasefire deal by attacking ships over the weekend.

Brent crude futures jumped $6.11, or ‌6.76%, to $96.49 ⁠a barrel ⁠by 2327 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $90.38 a barrel, up $6.53, or 7.79%.

The U.S. military had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday, while Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks despite Trump’s threat of renewed airstrikes.

The United States has ⁠maintained a ‌blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade of the Strait, which handled roughly ⁠one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before the war began almost two months ago.

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“Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to oscillating social media posts by the U.S. and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion,” Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee’s head of research, said.


Both contracts posted on Friday their largest daily ‌declines since April 18 after Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and ⁠Trump said Iran had agreed to never close the strait again.
“The announcement of the Strait opening proved premature,” Kavonic said. “Ship owners will be twice shy about heading towards the Strait again without receiving much more confidence that any announced passage is real.”

More than 20 ships passed the strait on Saturday carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilizers, Kpler data showed, the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.

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Global Market Today: Oil jumps, stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance

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Global Market Today: Oil jumps, stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance
SINGAPORE: Oil prices jumped, the U.S. dollar lifted from lows and stock markets wobbled on Monday as rising tension in the Middle East kept shipping in and out of the Gulf to a bare minimum, though traders were holding out hope for a resolution.

The ceasefire in the Iran war, due to run until Tuesday, was in doubt after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship and Tehran’s top military command vowed to retaliate.

Iran has re-imposed its de facto closure of the Strait of ‌Hormuz, though Kpler ⁠data showed ⁠that more than 20 vessels carrying oil products, metals, gas and fertiliser passed through it on Saturday, the busiest day for the chokepoint since March 1.

Brent crude futures jumped about 6% to $96 a barrel in early Asia trade. The dollar, which sold off sharply on Friday when the strait briefly opened, rose slightly.

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S&P 500 futures fell around 0.7%, a modest move considering the index notched a record closing high on Friday. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei up 0.7%.


Bond markets, which rallied on Friday, retreated.
“The headlines look bad; it looks like ⁠there’s disagreement … which ‌has led to a little bit of re-escalation,” said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “But I think, ultimately, both sides want to be able to do a deal – that’s part ⁠of the reason why the market’s optimistic and not selling off too much.”

Iran rejected new peace talks with the U.S., its state news agency reported on Sunday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was sending envoys for talks in Pakistan and would launch new strikes on Iran unless it accepts his terms.

FOCUS ON HORMUZ
In forex news, the euro was down 0.1% at $1.1735 and the yen eased around 0.3% to 159 per dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell slightly.

Bonds likewise partially retraced Friday moves, with benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which had fallen 6.5 basis points on Friday, rising by 3.2 bps ‌to 4.276%.

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Investors sold fixed income assets through March in anticipation of higher oil prices driving inflation – something they have tempered a little in recent weeks.

“Our base case (AKA guess) is still resolution to the war. Trump is still focused on November midterm ⁠elections,” said Paul Chew, head of research at Singapore’s Phillip Securities in a note to clients.

Wall Street indexes touched record highs on Friday, supported by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, the bulk of which come this week. China is expected to hold benchmark lending rates steady on Monday.

British inflation data, U.S. retail sales and European purchasing managers’ index figures are due later in the week, though much of markets’ focus will be on Gulf shipping.

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“The critical barometer of geopolitical risk has been distilled into one data point: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

“Peace talks matter, but the immediate focus is on oil and other supply shortages driving inflation.”

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National Australia Bank flags $503 million impairment hit on Mideast volatility

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National Australia Bank flags $503 million impairment hit on Mideast volatility


National Australia Bank flags $503 million impairment hit on Mideast volatility

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Omkara, Oaktree pay Rs 1,200 crore to buy GTL debt from Edelweiss

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Omkara, Oaktree pay Rs 1,200 crore to buy GTL debt from Edelweiss
Mumbai: Omkara Asset Reconstruction Company, along with global investor Oaktree Capital Management, has acquired the debt of GTL Infrastructure from Edelweiss Asset Reconstruction Company in a secondary market transaction, people familiar with the matter said.

The all-cash deal, valued at about ₹1,200 crore, involves a transfer of stressed debt between asset reconstruction platforms and investors. It was closed in March. The exposure dates back to 2018, when Edelweiss ARC, in partnership with Oaktree and other investors, had acquired nearly 90% of GTL Infra’s loans, then valued at around ₹4,000 crore.

The telecom tower company had defaulted on debt exceeding ₹11,000 crore, triggering multiple restructuring efforts over the years.

People familiar with the latest transaction said Edelweiss had put the exposure on the block as its fund lifecycle neared maturity, prompting a takeout by Omkara.

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“This is a 100% cash deal between ARCs. Edelweiss exited and we acquired the exposure,” an executive at one of the firms said on condition of anonymity.


Investors are betting on improved recovery prospects this time. “The underlying business is more or less stable now. The towers are operational, and that improves the chances of recovery,” the person said.
Omkara is understood to be targeting an exit over the next two years, either through asset sales or a negotiated settlement. “The idea is to close the account in about two years-through sale of assets or other recovery mechanisms,” the person added. Omkara and Edelweiss ARC spokespersons did not respond to requests for comment until press time Sunday.

In 2018, after a steep revenue and Ebitda decline following the exit of key clients including Aircel, RCom and Tata Teleservices, GTL Infrastructure sought to deleverage, with lenders assigning 79.34% of its ₹3,226-crore debt to Edelweiss ARC. The firm submitted multiple restructuring proposals from April 2018 onward, expecting a swift resolution, but lenders did not act on these plans and some retained their exposure.

In November 2022, the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) rejected a plea by Canara Bank to initiate insolvency proceedings, ruling that the company remained a viable going concern and did not meet the threshold for admission under the bankruptcy code.

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