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Ethereum Price Prediction March 2026: Bearish, But With Hope

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Price History

The Ethereum price enters March after a brutal February that delivered close to 20% losses. ETH has now posted six consecutive red months starting from September 2025, a streak unprecedented in the token’s history. If March finishes in the red, it would extend to seven months, further cementing this as the longest sustained decline Ethereum has ever seen.

While March historically carries a median return of nearly 9% for ETH, the current setup suggests history may offer little guidance. Here is what the data shows.

The Weekly Chart Has Already Broken Down

Even February 2025, which saw a 32% decline, immediately saw a recovery attempt over the next few months. This time, the selling has been relentless, and the weekly chart explains why. Six straight months of red, excluding March (just formed), is no mean bearish feat.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

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Price History
Price History: CryptoRank

Since April 7, 2025, the Ethereum price has been trading within a head-and-shoulders pattern. It is a bearish reversal structure in which a central peak (the head) is flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders). The breakdown confirmed in early January 2026, and it was not a minor dip. It was a structural break.

The measured move from this pattern projects a roughly 53% decline from the breakdown line, targeting approximately $1,320. While that level has not yet been reached, the pattern remains active and unresolved.

ETH Breakdown
ETH Breakdown: TradingView

Making matters worse, two additional bearish crossovers are forming on the weekly Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which smooth price data to highlight trend direction.

The 50-period EMA is closing in on the 100-period EMA, and the 20-period EMA is approaching the 200-period EMA. The last confirmed crossover — when the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA in early January — preceded a 46% correction.

Weekly Breakdown Structure
Weekly Breakdown Structure: TradingView

If these new crossovers confirm, they would reinforce the bearish trend on the higher timeframe.

Ethereum ETF Outflows Offer No Institutional Floor

Unlike Bitcoin, where spot ETF outflows have been steadily declining, Ethereum’s ETF picture is deteriorating. February recorded $369.87 million in net outflows — higher than January’s $353.20 million. This reversed the improving trend that had briefly offered hope when January’s outflows shrank compared to December’s $616.82 million.

This marks four consecutive months of outflows since November 2025, when $1.42 billion exited. The last positive inflow month was October 2025 at $569.92 million.

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ETF Flows
ETF Flows: SoSo Value

For the Ethereum price, this means there is no institutional demand floor forming heading into March. The capital that once supported ETH through ETF channels is withdrawing, and unlike Bitcoin, the bleeding is not slowing down.

HODLers Are Buying, But The Plot Thickens

Against this bearish backdrop, one on-chain metric stands out. Ethereum hodlers — wallets that have held ETH for 155 days or more — have sharply increased their buying. On February 21, the hodler net position change metric was a modest +6,829 ETH. By March 1, it surged to +252,142 ETH, a massive 3,500% spike that on the surface looks like strong conviction.

Hodlers Buying Recently
ETH Hodlers Buying Recently: Glassnode

But context complicates this signal. The last major hodler buying spell began on December 26, 2025, when the Ethereum price was around $2,920. They kept accumulating as the price climbed to $3,350 by January 14. Then the weekly EMA crossover triggered, and the price began falling sharply. Hodlers continued buying through the decline. Their net position only turned negative on February 2, when the price had already dropped to $2,340.

Hodlers Likely Trapped
ETH Hodlers Likely Trapped: Glassnode

Many of these hodlers are therefore likely trapped between $2,340 and $3,350. The current buying surge may not represent fresh bullish conviction but rather an attempt to average down and break even. Retail investors should be cautious about following this signal blindly — the motivation behind the buying may be survival, not strategy.

But There Is a Reason They Are Buying; And the Key Ethereum Price Levels to Watch

If hodlers are trapped, why are they increasing exposure now, in a weak market? The 12-hour chart may hold the answer.

Between February 12 and February 28, the Ethereum price printed a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator — printed a higher low. This forms a bullish divergence, a signal that selling momentum is weakening even as the price drops. That divergence has already triggered a bounce, with the Ethereum price rallying approximately 11.7% from the lows.

More importantly, this bounce is shaping an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart; a bullish reversal structure. This is likely what hodlers are positioning for — a short-term breakout that could help them recover losses from the January trap. The technical setup is real, and the RSI divergence has already been validated by the initial bounce.

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Ethereum Short-Term Structure
Ethereum Short-Term Structure: TradingView

The neckline sits around $2,160–$2,180. If the Ethereum price closes above this level, the measured move projects a roughly 19% rally, targeting approximately $2,590. Before that, the Fibonacci extension levels at $2,050 and $2,400 would serve as intermediate resistance zones.

On the downside, a drop below $1,830 weakens the inverse head and shoulders. A close below $1,790 invalidates the bounce thesis entirely, and the weekly head and shoulders reasserts dominance — placing the $1,320 target back in focus.

Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

The most probable path for March mirrors Bitcoin’s setup: a bounce attempt driven by the 12-hour structure and hodler accumulation, followed by renewed pressure as the weekly trend remains firmly bearish.

The bounce is real, but it is fighting against a much larger breakdown.

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Crypto World

Pump.fun moves beyond meme coins with new trading update

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Pump.fun moves beyond meme coins with new trading update

The crypto app Pump.fun is taking a significant step beyond its meme-coin roots, announcing broad new trading support that allows users to buy and sell a wider array of tokens directly within the platform.

Summary

  • Pump.fun now lets users trade a range of assets including WBTC, USDC, Ethereum (via Wormhole), and other launchpad tokens inside the app.
  • The expansion responds to over 1.5M downloads and demand for more diverse on-chain trading without leaving the platform.
  • Earlier in 2026, the platform introduced a Trader Cashback model to redirect fees toward active traders, reshaping its fee structure.

From meme coins to Bitcoin: Pump.fun broadens asset support

Previously known primarily as an on-chain Solana memecoin launchpad and token-creator hub, Pump.fun has exploded in popularity thanks to easy coin generation and speculative trading. Over 1.5 million downloads underscore its rapid adoption, and growing user demand for more trading utility has pushed the company to evolve.

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In a post shared on social platforms, Pump.fun said that for the first time, users can trade not just its native Pump fun coins, but a broader selection of assets, including WBTC, USDC, Ethereum (via Wormhole), and other launchpad tokens.

The update aims to reduce friction for users who previously had to leave the app to access other assets, consolidating trading activity in one interface. This marks a shift from Pump.fun’s early role as a creator-centric ecosystem, where anyone could spin up a token in minutes, toward a more versatile trading environment.

The push toward supporting mainstream crypto alongside meme tokens comes amid broader changes in Pump.fun’s fee and incentive structure. Last month the platform rolled out a “Trader Cashback” model, letting creators choose whether trading fees benefit deployers or active traders, an effort to reward volume and participation more fairly.

While the platform remains known for speculative assets and memecoins, this expansion could attract more serious traders and bolster liquidity, positioning Pump.fun as more than just a meme-token generator.

Whether broader token support alters user behavior or stabilizes markets will be closely watched across the crypto community.

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Bitcoin Rebound Tactical Not Structural Bear Market: Analysts

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Bitcoin Rebound Tactical Not Structural Bear Market: Analysts

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior could indicate that crypto selling pressure has begun to wane — though analysts warn there are not yet signs of a reversal from a bear market.

“Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower on risk-off headlines, a signal that downside pressure may be losing momentum,” said 10x Research in a market update on Tuesday.

The analysts noted that Bitcoin (BTC) was reclaiming the 20-day moving average near $68,500, and Bollinger Bands were tightening, with conditions “forming for potential range expansion.”

BTC returned to just above $70,000 on Coinbase in late trading on Monday but had retreated to $68,400 at the time of writing, according to TradingView. 

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The $62,500 level has held on three separate tests, “reinforcing it as meaningful support,” the analysts said. 

At the same time, “bullish divergences are emerging,” with both RSI [relative strength index] and stochastic indicators trending higher, “early signs that momentum may be stabilizing even within a broader bearish structure.” 

Bitcoin vs. daily stochastics. Source: 10x Research

A tactical shift but no structural reversal 

The analysts concluded that the evidence “points to a meaningful tactical shift, but not yet a confirmed structural turn.”

Volatility is compressing, ETF flows have strengthened, and the Coinbase discount has disappeared, “these are not characteristics of a market accelerating into a fresh leg lower,” they said.

“However, our broader allocation framework still classifies Bitcoin as being in a bear market regime, meaning any bullish exposure remains tactical rather than structural.”

Related: Crypto analyst says Bitcoin selling pressure is nearly exhausted

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Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph on Tuesday that there have been a lot of macro and crypto-native events that have pushed the price down, but lately, “we’ve moved from frantic to somewhat measured,” which bodes well for “a consolidation, accumulation, or at least, a range-bound time.”

“The fact that selling pressure isn’t having that much impact despite tariffs, prospect of a war, or previously disappointing rate cut expectations seems to say that sellers themselves are exhausted or that there are genuine buyers averaging in at these levels.”

Deeply negative funding rates caused a price bounce

Meanwhile, Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s downside momentum is fading but said it was “primarily due to deeply negative funding rates” on derivatives markets

This has created “overcrowded short positions in perpetual futures and triggered a classic short squeeze as price bounced sharply from $63,000 lows, forcing heavy liquidations and easing selling pressure through tactical relief.”

Negative funding rates mean that short sellers are paying the longs to maintain their positions. 

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He added that no confirmed trend reversal has occurred yet “because structural inflows remain absent, macro catalysts are lacking,” and the broader downtrend from the all-time high “persists with fragile liquidity and resistance ahead.”

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