Bitcoin Rebound Tactical Not Structural Bear Market: Analysts

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior could indicate that crypto selling pressure has begun to wane — though analysts warn there are not yet signs of a reversal from a bear market.

“Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower on risk-off headlines, a signal that downside pressure may be losing momentum,” said 10x Research in a market update on Tuesday.

The analysts noted that Bitcoin (BTC) was reclaiming the 20-day moving average near $68,500, and Bollinger Bands were tightening, with conditions “forming for potential range expansion.”

BTC returned to just above $70,000 on Coinbase in late trading on Monday but had retreated to $68,400 at the time of writing, according to TradingView. 

The $62,500 level has held on three separate tests, “reinforcing it as meaningful support,” the analysts said. 

At the same time, “bullish divergences are emerging,” with both RSI [relative strength index] and stochastic indicators trending higher, “early signs that momentum may be stabilizing even within a broader bearish structure.” 

A tactical shift but no structural reversal 

The analysts concluded that the evidence “points to a meaningful tactical shift, but not yet a confirmed structural turn.”

Volatility is compressing, ETF flows have strengthened, and the Coinbase discount has disappeared, “these are not characteristics of a market accelerating into a fresh leg lower,” they said.

“However, our broader allocation framework still classifies Bitcoin as being in a bear market regime, meaning any bullish exposure remains tactical rather than structural.”

Related: Crypto analyst says Bitcoin selling pressure is nearly exhausted

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph on Tuesday that there have been a lot of macro and crypto-native events that have pushed the price down, but lately, “we’ve moved from frantic to somewhat measured,” which bodes well for “a consolidation, accumulation, or at least, a range-bound time.”

“The fact that selling pressure isn’t having that much impact despite tariffs, prospect of a war, or previously disappointing rate cut expectations seems to say that sellers themselves are exhausted or that there are genuine buyers averaging in at these levels.”

Deeply negative funding rates caused a price bounce

Meanwhile, Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s downside momentum is fading but said it was “primarily due to deeply negative funding rates” on derivatives markets. 

This has created “overcrowded short positions in perpetual futures and triggered a classic short squeeze as price bounced sharply from $63,000 lows, forcing heavy liquidations and easing selling pressure through tactical relief.”

Negative funding rates mean that short sellers are paying the longs to maintain their positions. 

He added that no confirmed trend reversal has occurred yet “because structural inflows remain absent, macro catalysts are lacking,” and the broader downtrend from the all-time high “persists with fragile liquidity and resistance ahead.”

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