Crypto World
Can PMI above 50 trigger Altcoin Season in 2026?
As macro conditions regain influence over digital assets, investors are increasingly asking whether a rebound in economic activity, particularly a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading above 50, could ignite the next altcoin season.
Summary
- PMI above 50 would signal improving economic conditions and a potential return of risk appetite
- Nearly 40% of altcoins trading near all-time lows reflects extreme weakness but possible late-stage capitulation
- Bitcoin dominance remains elevated, suggesting rotation into altcoins has not yet begun
What PMI means for Altcoin Season
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a forward-looking economic indicator that measures manufacturing and services activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Crypto markets, especially altcoins, are highly sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. When PMI rises above 50 after a contraction phase, it typically signals improving growth expectations, stronger corporate activity, and loosening financial conditions.
Historically, periods of macro expansion have coincided with greater investor willingness to rotate into higher-beta assets, including mid- and small-cap cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin often reacts first to improving macro conditions, benefiting from institutional flows. Altcoin season tends to follow when investors move further out the risk curve in search of higher returns. In prior cycles, altcoin rallies have emerged during early-to-mid expansion phases when liquidity conditions improved but speculative excess had not yet peaked.
Current conditions: Pressure before rotation?
However, the present backdrop remains fragile.
According to a CryptoQuant analyst, 38% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows, a worse reading than both April 2025 (35%) and even the immediate aftermath of the FTX collapse (37.8%). This marks the deepest regression for altcoins in the current cycle, underscoring persistent risk aversion.
Moreover, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart reinforces this narrative. Dominance remains elevated near 58–59%, after peaking around 60% in February.
While BTC.D has pulled back slightly from local highs, it has not broken into a decisive downtrend, a necessary condition for sustained altcoin outperformance.
For a PMI-driven altcoin season to materialize, three things likely need to occur simultaneously: PMI moving sustainably above 50, Bitcoin consolidating rather than trending sharply higher, and BTC dominance breaking below key support to confirm capital rotation.
Until then, macro stabilization may first benefit Bitcoin before liquidity meaningfully spreads into the broader altcoin market.
In short, a PMI recovery could be the spark, but dominance trends suggest altcoin season has not yet begun.
Technological deflation driven by artificial intelligence could help push Bitcoin above $10 million within a decade by pressuring central banks to keep expanding the money supply, according to a report from Strive strategist Joe Burnett.
Burnett, Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin strategy, said in a report published Monday that faster productivity gains from AI will push down prices across goods and services, squeezing margins and prompting policymakers to respond with sustained monetary expansion. His “base case” calls for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $11 million in the first quarter of 2036, he wrote.
”My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.”
The forecast rests on a set of aggressive assumptions, including that Bitcoin would grow to about 12% of the value of global financial assets and that global wealth would compound at 7% annually through 2036. With Bitcoin currently accounting for about 0.2% of all financial assets, this would involve an over 176-fold increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization during the next decade to hit $230 trillion.
The forecast would imply that Bitcoin becomes the dominant global reserve asset along with structurally loose monetary policy over the next decade, Nic Puckrin, co-founder and lead market analyst of educational platform Coin Bureau, told Cointelegraph.
”The forecast implies Bitcoin would become around 10 times as large as the current US M2 money supply, nearly four times as large as the US equity market today, and nearly double current global GDP.”
The prediction would also imply a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 53% per annum, which is not unprecedented considering Bitcoin’s average 60% CAGR between 2015 and 2024, but a slowdown may be expected due to its larger market capitalization, added Puckrin.
AI deflation engine to lead to structural monetary expansion
Burnett’s thesis centers on what he described as an “AI deflation engine,” arguing that AI-driven automation and cost reductions could create persistent deflationary pressure.
In a debt-based fiat system, sustained deflation can strain credit markets because wages and asset prices may fall while debt obligations remain fixed in nominal terms, he wrote, potentially pushing central banks and fiscal authorities to add liquidity to avoid a deflationary spiral.
Related: Bitcoin manipulation claims face pushback as ETFs snap 5-week outflow run: Finance Redefined
”Under a debt-based fiat framework, persistent deflation destabilizes credit markets because wages and asset prices decline while mortgages, corporate loans, and sovereign debt remain fixed in nominal terms,” Burnett said.
”As AI drives real-economy deflation, central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral.”
Burnett said this will lead to a persistent increase in money relative to the supply of scarce assets.
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Emergence of digital credit set to bolster Bitcoin demand
The report also points to what Burnett calls the emergence of “digital credit” models promoted by companies including Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Digital credit provides US dollar income to investors through publicly traded securities backed by large Bitcoin balance sheets issued by treasury firms as a means to raise capital to acquire more Bitcoin.
Burnett foresees digital credit products creating a ”reflexive loop” between global yield demand and Bitcoin accumulation, marking the ”early stage of a credit system built on verifiably scarce money.”
Still, the $11 million forecast stands well above most bullish scenarios that use shorter time horizons. For instance, ARK Invest predicted a 2030 Bitcoin price target of $1.5 million in the company’s bull case and a $300,000 price target in the bear case, Cointelegraph reported in November 2025.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder
Crypto World
Ethereum Price Prediction: Whales Drive 7th Red Month While RWA Sector Hits $15B Record
Ethereum is on the verge of something it has never experienced before: a seventh consecutive red month and that is fueling bearish price prediction.
For an asset of this size and history, that kind of streak carries psychological weight.
It is not just about price drifting lower, it is about confidence slowly eroding as each monthly close reinforces the downtrend.
Large holders have played a major role in shaping that pressure. Wallets holding between 100K and 1M ETH have been steadily reducing exposure, using relief rallies to distribute rather than accumulate.
That persistent supply has kept upside attempts muted and sentiment fragile. When whales derisk, the rest of the market tends to tread carefully.
Yet beneath the surface, a very different story is unfolding.
While ETH struggles on the chart, Ethereum’s Real World Asset sector has surged past $15 billion in total value locked. Tokenized Treasuries, gold products like PAXG and XAUT, and institutional vehicles such as BlackRock’s BUIDL fund are expanding rapidly on-chain.
That divergence is what makes this moment so tense. Price action suggests exhaustion and potential capitulation, but network adoption is accelerating.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Can ETH Price Catch Up?
Technically, Ethereum is compressing around the $2,150 zone, which now acts as a decisive structural level. A confirmed weekly break below it would validate a larger bearish formation and expose the $1,320 region as a downside target.
However, repeated defenses of this support leave room for a reversal scenario. If buyers reclaim $2,400 and push through $2,500, the bearish setup weakens significantly and opens the door for a squeeze higher.
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The post Ethereum Price Prediction: Whales Drive 7th Red Month While RWA Sector Hits $15B Record appeared first on Cryptonews.
A federal judge has dismissed a proposed class action lawsuit against Uniswap Labs, CEO Hayden Adams and several venture capital backers, ruling they cannot be held liable for alleged “rug pull” tokens traded on the decentralized exchange’s protocol.
In a ruling issued Monday by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Judge Katherine Polk Failla threw out the remaining state law claims in Risley v. Universal Navigation Inc., the Brooklyn-based firm that operates Uniswap. after previously dismissing the plaintiffs’ federal securities claims. The decision effectively ends the case at the district court level.
The ruling is one of the first to specifically address whether developers and investors behind a decentralized protocol can be held liable under existing securities and state laws for tokens created and traded by third parties.
“Due to the Protocol’s decentralized nature, the identities of the Scam Token issuers are basically unknown and unknowable, leaving Plaintiffs with an identifiable injury but no identifiable defendant,” Failla wrote.
“Undaunted, they now sue the Uniswap Defendants and the VC Defendants, hoping that this Court might overlook the fact that the current state of cryptocurrency regulation leaves them without recourse, at least as to the specific claims alleged in this suit,” she added.
Irina Heaver, a UAE-based crypto lawyer, told CoinDesk “the dismissal signals that courts are beginning to engage more seriously with the realities of decentralization.”
By recognizing that a permissionless protocol governed by autonomous smart contracts is not the same as a centralized intermediary exercising control, the court drew an important distinction for DeFi, she explained.
“When code executes automatically and there is no discretionary control, liability cannot simply be reassigned to developers because bad actors misuse the infrastructure,” Heaver said. “The real question now is how this reasoning carries into criminal cases such as Tornado Cash. If decentralization is acknowledged as a structural reality, prosecutors will need to prove intent and control, not merely authorship of code.”
Brian Nistler, Uniswap’s head of policy, celebrated the ruling on X, calling it “another precedent-setting ruling for DeFi.” He highlighted what he described as his “favorite quote” from the case: “It defies logic that a drafter of a smart contract, a computer code, could be held liable … for a third party user’s misuse of the platform.”
The plaintiffs, a group of investors , claimed they lost an undisclosed amount of money after purchasing dozens of tokens on the Uniswap Protocol that they later described as scams. Because the token issuers were unidentified, the investors instead sued Uniswap Labs, the Uniswap Foundation, Adams and venture firms Paradigm, Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures.
Failla rejected the argument that the defendants could be held responsible simply for providing the infrastructure on which the tokens were issued and traded.
“Plaintiffs’ theories of liability are still predicated on Defendants having ‘facilitated’ the scam trades by providing a marketplace and facilities for bringing together buyers and sellers of Tokens,’” Failla wrote, concluding that the claims failed as a matter of law.
In an earlier dismissal of the federal claims, Failla said it “defies logic” to hold the drafter of a smart contract liable for a third party’s misuse of the platform — language that has been widely cited by decentralized finance advocates.
Visa and Stripe-owned stablecoin firm Bridge have expanded globally the stablecoin-linked card issuance product unveiled last year, which was focused on Central and South American countries.
Lead Bank, which was announced as a participant in Visa’s stablecoin settlement pilot earlier this year, is also working with Bridge’s stablecoin infrastructure, according to a press release.
Bridge-enabled stablecoin-linked cards are now live in 18 countries, using crypto platforms like Phantom and MetaMask, with planned expansion to over 100 countries across Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East by end of year, the companies said on Tuesday.
“Expanding our work with Bridge gives us one more way to bring the speed, transparency and programmability of stablecoins directly into the settlement process. This milestone gives our partners greater choice in how they move value, and it reinforces Visa’s role as a trusted network connecting stablecoins and the global payments ecosystem,” said Visa’s head of crypto Cuy Sheffield.
Bridge cofounder Zach Abrams said the expansion with Visa will enable businesses launching their own custom stablecoins to use them seamlessly within their card programs.
- Cardano (ADA) dips below $0.27 amid whale selling and bearish market sentiment.
- Hoskinson slams CLARITY Act as harmful to crypto innovation.
- ADA eyes $0.28 support and $0.30 resistance levels.
Cardano (ADA) has seen its price dip below the $0.27 mark, continuing a recent streak of selling pressure.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $0.2646, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin-denominated value has also decreased, reflecting broader market weakness.
Notably, this decline comes as ADA battles multiple resistance levels while trying to hold its long-term support near $0.28.
Charles Hoskinson’s statement about the CLARITY Act
Adding to market uncertainty, Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, has publicly criticised the CLARITY Act.
While some executives see regulatory clarity as a positive step, Hoskinson’s stance highlights concerns that the CLARITY Act may inadvertently hinder growth and limit competition within the American crypto market.
Hoskinson called the proposed legislation “horrific” and warned it could stifle innovation in the cryptocurrency space.
Hoskinson argues that the bill would categorise most digital assets as securities by default.
He believes this framework could give regulators excessive power and place unnecessary burdens on future crypto projects.
According to him, while established networks may be grandfathered in, new developers could be forced to operate abroad to avoid restrictive US rules.
On-chain shows whales offloading ADA holdings
On-chain data from Santiment confirms that whale activity has also been a significant factor in ADA’s recent price movements.
Both mid-tier and large holders have reduced their exposure, creating a supply surge that the market has struggled to absorb.
At the same time, futures markets indicate negative funding rates, showing that bearish sentiment dominates derivatives trading.
Retail investors attempting to buy the dip have been unable to counterbalance these outsized moves.
Cardano Price Outlook
For traders and investors, several levels are crucial to watch.
The immediate resistance lies near $0.29 to $0.30, reinforced by descending trendlines and moving averages.
Breaking above this zone could open the door for a short-term recovery.
On the downside, Cardano’s historical price context shows that the $0.28 region is a critical support zone.
This level has repeatedly acted as a floor in past downtrends, making it a key point to monitor.
Failure to hold $0.28 would expose the next support around $0.25, with deeper levels near $0.24 if selling continues.
A break below these points could signal a continuation of the downtrend and test historical lows around $0.21 to $0.18.
The Bank of Japan is moving to place central bank reserve money onto blockchain infrastructure, a step that marks the first G7 central bank validation of distributed ledger technology at the reserve settlement level.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed the initiative Tuesday in a speech at the FIN/SUM conference in Tokyo, framing it as a necessary adaptation to what he called a “new financial ecosystem.”
The announcement carries institutional weight beyond Japan’s borders. It arrives as central banks globally race to establish credible blockchain settlement frameworks before private-sector tokenization outpaces regulatory infrastructure.
- The BOJ is launching a sandbox to test whether central bank current account deposits — institutional reserves — can operate on blockchain-based systems, targeting interbank and securities settlement.
- Japan is an active participant in Project Agora, the BIS-led multilateral experiment exploring tokenized central bank money for cross-border wholesale settlement.
- Governor Ueda explicitly flagged smart contract code errors as a direct threat to financial stability, signaling the BOJ views technical risk validation as a precondition for any production deployment.
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What the Bank of Japan Sandbox Is Actually Testing
The sandbox targets BOJ current account deposits, the reserves commercial banks hold at the central bank, as the asset to be tokenized and tested on blockchain rails.
Ueda specified two primary use cases: domestic interbank settlement and securities settlement, both currently processed through BOJ-NET, Japan’s national financial network.
The core technical challenge is interoperability. The BOJ is not looking to replace legacy infrastructure wholesale but to prove blockchain can connect with it. Smart contract functionality sits at the center of that value proposition, enabling faster, programmable execution of settlement instructions that currently require manual or batch processing.
BREAKING Bank of Japan just went full blockchain.
Governor Ueda announced a sandbox to settle CENTRAL BANK MONEY on-chain we're talking actual BOJ reserve deposits between financial institutions. Atomic transactions. Smart contracts. AI integration. BOJ-NET compatibility… pic.twitter.com/ZICM8lZJIF— Xaif Crypto
|
(@Xaif_Crypto) March 3, 2026
Ueda did not specify a blockchain architecture or timeline for sandbox completion. He confirmed the BOJ will engage external experts throughout development, suggesting technology firm or academic partnerships are forthcoming.
However, Ueda’s concerns about smart contract risk were unambiguous:
“Smart contracts are highly convenient in that they allow transactions to be carried out automatically without any manual labor. When the design of the smart contracts is inadequate, however, there is a risk that the stability of financial markets and payment systems will be threatened due to fraudulent use.”
What Does the BOJ Move Signal for Tokenized Finance?
Japan’s experiment positions it alongside, not behind, the most advanced institutional blockchain programs globally.
The BOJ is a participating jurisdiction in Project Agora, the Bank for International Settlements initiative exploring tokenized central bank money for cross-border wholesale payments.
Ueda confirmed that Project Agora participants are actively designing a framework for central banks to issue tokenized deposits on-chain with embedded smart contract functionality.
That multilateral dimension matters. Cross-border settlement inefficiencies cost the global financial system billions annually in correspondent banking delays and FX conversion friction.
— Timmy Shen (@timmyhmshen) March 3, 2026
Japan's central bank is moving blockchain closer to the heart of its financial system.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BOJ is experimenting with blockchain for central bank reserve settlements.
Ueda added central banks must adapt to a “new financial ecosystem”… pic.twitter.com/nvRf8IdFDu
A BIS-coordinated framework with BOJ participation opens a path toward atomic settlement across currencies, without relying on private stablecoin infrastructure.
The domestic context reinforces the institutional momentum. Japan’s Financial Services Agency ran consultations in 2025 on reclassifying cryptocurrencies on par with securities.
In effect, the government has embedded blockchain and tokenization in its economic growth strategy. Japan’s first yen-pegged stablecoin, JPYC, launched in January 2021. The BOJ sandbox does not emerge from a vacuum; it sits atop an accelerating national tokenization agenda.
Crypto Ecosystem Exposure Remains Indirect but Real
Permissioned blockchain networks, purpose-built for institutional settlement, the architecture most likely to underpin BOJ experiments, require the same smart contract tooling and security standards that public chains have been developing for years.
So, protocols and networks exposed to tokenized real-world assets and institutional-grade settlement infrastructure stand to benefit most as central bank experiments validate the underlying technology. The question is timing and whether public or permissioned chains capture the institutional layer first.
The BOJ’s next visible milestone will be the publication of technical findings from the sandbox and the naming of external expert partners.
Those announcements will undoubtedly reveal which blockchain architecture Japan’s central bank considers fit for reserve infrastructure, and that choice will carry weight across the institutional DeFi space.
The post Bank of Japan to Test Blockchain-Based Reserve Settlement System appeared first on Cryptonews.
ACI’s exit escalates that debate, particularly as other major contributors like BGD Labs recently announced plans to leave by April 2026 amid governance friction.
The Aave Chan Initiative (ACI), one of the largest delegated service providers in the Aave governance ecosystem, has announced it will wind down its engagement with the Aave DAO and depart the protocol over the coming months, marking a significant escalation in ongoing governance tensions.
In a governance forum post published March 3 by Marc Zeller, founder of ACI, the organization confirmed that it will not seek renewal of its contract with Aave DAO and will begin a four-month wind-down of operations with a focus on transferring infrastructure and responsibilities back to the DAO or successor teams.
“The Aave Chan Initiative was built for Aave. Without a future in the Aave ecosystem, the name no longer applies,” Zeller wrote, explaining that the decision stems from what he sees as structural breakdowns in the governance process.
ACI said its work included driving 61% of all governance actions, revenue strategies responsible for nearly half of the protocol’s income, and over $100 million in incentives deployed over three years.
Governance Accountability and Structural Concerns
In his statement, Zeller cited a series of events that undermined ACI’s ability to operate effectively, including what he characterized as a governance process that failed to apply consistent transparency and accountability standards to the largest budget request in DAO history.
“We spent three years building a culture of accountability inside the Aave DAO… When we applied those same standards to the entity requesting the largest budget in DAO history, the system stopped working,” Zeller said.
In a separate post, he argued that the “Aave Will Win” Temp Check vote cleared its preliminary stage thanks to Aave Labs–linked voting power, even as most other tokenholders had rejected the proposal.
ACI’s departure follows a broader debate inside the Aave community over revenue allocation, service provider roles, and the balance of power between independent delegates and core contributors such as Aave Labs. ACI’s exit escalates that debate, particularly as other major contributors like BGD Labs recently announced plans to leave by April 2026 amid governance friction.
Transition and Handover
Despite announcing its exit, ACI said it will ensure a “graceful transition” of its systems and tools to the DAO before its contract expires. This includes handing off governance infrastructure, documentation for incentive programs, and ongoing commitments.
ACI also plans to submit a governance proposal to cancel its existing GHO revenue stream and transfer the remaining vesting to the DAO treasury to ensure continuity after departure.
Implications for Aave
ACI’s departure represents a rare and notable exit from the ecosystem by a delegate that has historically played a central role in shaping protocol strategy, incentive design, and governance tooling. Its exit, coupled with other service provider changes, may force the wider DAO to reassess how it structures governance oversight and balances power among contributors.
As the DAO prepares for next phases of major proposals and technical upgrades, ACI’s winding down adds pressure to ongoing debates about decentralization, accountability, and the future of Aave’s governance model.
Bitcoin’s volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, and prices could fall further, as crypto markets grapple with a liquidity squeeze and deeply fractured sentiment, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori.
But the longer-term picture, he argues, remains intact.
“We can see volatility remaining high in the short term, and prices could even go lower from here,” Dori told CoinDesk in an interview. “Sentiment has collapsed. Trust and confidence for investors to build exposure are very limited.”
The recent divergence between gold, which has held firm, and innovation assets such as Nasdaq tech stocks and bitcoin underscores how fragile the current environment has become. Yet Dori cautions against searching for a single explanation.
“There isn’t one single cause, indicator or driver behind this gap,” he said. “It’s a number of elements that have been building over recent months.”
Crypto markets have trended lower in recent months, with bitcoin and other major tokens retreating from earlier highs as macro headwinds and uneven institutional flows weigh on sentiment. Sticky inflation and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have curbed risk appetite, while periodic geopolitical flare-ups have reinforced a broader move out of speculative assets. At the same time, choppier exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, thinner liquidity and bouts of leveraged liquidations have magnified downside moves, leaving prices struggling to regain momentum and repeatedly testing key support levels.
Thin ice
Crypto, Dori argues, has been “on thin ice” for some time.
Long-term holders have grown wary of bitcoin’s four-year cycle and the risk of entering a correction phase. That caution has left the ecosystem on more fractured footing, with fewer strong hands willing to absorb volatility.
Layered on top are crypto-specific liquidity stresses and broader macro pressures.
Since June last year, the U.S. Treasury’s issuance of bills and notes has significantly increased balances in the Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Federal Reserve. When those bills are issued, liquidity is effectively pulled from markets and sits idle.
“They are non-productive assets,” Dori said. “And crypto, being one of the most liquidity-sensitive asset classes, was among the most affected.”
A record liquidity event on Oct. 10 further dampened risk appetite among investors and market makers, he said, accelerating the deterioration in crypto market depth. Funding rates collapsed, and liquidity conditions worsened.
At the same time, concerns ranging from bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative to quantum computing risks, forced selling of reserves by digital asset treasuries and delays around U.S. legislation, including the much-anticipated Clarity Act, have compounded uncertainty.
With sentiment already fragile, even minor headlines now trigger outsized price swings.
“The ecosystem was already on thin ice because of the cycle dynamics,” Dori said. Then you add additional liquidity constraints and collapsing sentiment, that’s a very vulnerable setup, he added.
Since early October, bitcoin has suffered drawdowns of roughly 40% to 50% from its recent highs. The last time markets experienced declines of that magnitude was during the systemic crisis of 2022, prompting renewed fears of broader structural risk.
Dori rejects the comparison.
“From a macro perspective, regulatory clarity, institutional adoption and counterparty soundness, the picture today is totally different from 2022,” he said. “This is not the same systemic risk environment.”
Liquidity turn?
In Dori’s view, the current weakness reflects a short-term liquidity squeeze rather than a shift in fundamentals.
Market data, he said, shows empirical signs of improvement beneath the surface.
The U.S. business cycle is broadening. ISM services activity has expanded in recent months, and manufacturing prints have surprised to the upside, historically prerequisites for improving risk appetite.
At the same time, headline inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but is nowhere near levels that previously fueled acute concerns around trade policy or tariffs. The trend, Dori said, appears subdued enough to allow the Fed to continue its rate-cut cycle in coming months.
“That would improve liquidity conditions again,” he said.
Treasury-driven liquidity pressures could also ease, setting the stage for a faster-than-expected turn ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Dori added.
From a crypto-native perspective, the fundamental backdrop remains constructive. Stablecoin growth continues, integration into traditional finance is expanding, and the number of native tokens locked on networks such as Ethereum and Solana remains robust.
Institutional adoption, while uneven, is still progressing.
“Once sentiment normalizes and liquidity conditions improve, the gap between traditional assets and crypto should narrow again,” Dori said.
Searching for a trigger
For now, however, sentiment is the dominant force.
Fear-and-greed indicators sit at extreme fear levels, underscoring how little appetite there is to rebuild exposure. “That clearly indicates that trust and confidence are very limited,” Dori said. “We need some kind of trigger.”
What that catalyst might be is less clear.
The passage of comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation, such as the Clarity Act, would be “an extremely positive development,” he said. A normalization of geopolitical tensions could also help restore broader investor appetite.
Improvement in concerns tied to artificial intelligence and sustainability narratives could provide additional tailwinds. Meanwhile, a further recovery in liquidity conditions, combined with continued institutional inflows, would reinforce the constructive case.
Until then, markets remain exposed.
The short-term view, because of sentiment, is not great, Dori said. But he remains confident that the structural foundation is stronger than it appears.
“Fundamentally, we see improving business cycle data, stablecoin growth, institutional participation and stronger counterparty risk management,” he said. “That’s very different from what we saw in 2022.”
In Dori’s assessment, bitcoin’s current slump is less a verdict on its long-term viability and more a function of liquidity mechanics and shaken confidence.
Volatility may intensify before it subsides. Prices may even test lower levels. Yet if liquidity conditions ease and macro data continue to firm, Dori believes the turn could come sooner than many expect.
For now, crypto remains on edge. But beneath the surface, he argues, the fundamentals are quietly improving.
Read more: Bitcoin is stuck in a rut but JPMorgan says new legislation could be the ultimate spark
The recent strike by Israel and the US, along with Iran’s retaliatory actions, has pushed energy asset prices higher. Yesterday, we reported on a bullish gap in oil markets, and while US natural gas prices have not surged as sharply, they are also on the rise. Traders’ attention is focused on news from the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global liquefied gas shipments pass.
Today’s XNG/USD chart reflects the increase in natural gas prices – driven by concerns over potential disruptions to supply chains.
Technical Analysis of XNG/USD
The long-term descending channel, repeatedly referenced in previous analyses, remains relevant – its median acted as resistance on 6 February.
A notable event occurred on 9 February, when a bearish gap formed on the XNG/USD chart (around the 3.200 level). This area acted as resistance on 12 February.
From a bullish perspective:
→ The market finds support near the 2025 low, likely an economically justified support level close to production costs.
→ The reversal on 26 February resembles a Rounding Bottom pattern.
Currently, US natural gas prices are trading near 1.133, where local February highs formed. However, if escalation in the Middle East continues, XNG/USD may rise toward the noted resistance around 3.200.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crypto World
Dollar surge pressures crypto and gold after escalation in Iran conflict: Crypto Markets Today
The crypto market, U.S. equities and precious metals all tumbled on Tuesday as the dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.5% since midnight UTC to its highest level since Jan. 19.
The risk-off sentiment comes after escalation in the conflict in Iran, with Israel launching fresh strikes on Tehran and Beirut while the U.S. embassy in Riyadh was hit by two Iranian drones.
Gold hit a one-month high of $5,410 on Monday but fell back to $5,260 on Tuesday as investors opt for the dollar as a safe haven.
Bitcoin has been largely correlated with gold this week; rallying on Monday to $70,000 before reverting back to $66,500 – firmly in the middle of a range it has occupied since early February.
The altcoin market fared worse than bitcoin, with the likes of ADA, ZEC and DASH losing upwards of 4% since midnight UTC.
Derivatives positioning
- Market dynamics have transitioned into a consolidation phase, with BTC futures open Interest stabilizing at $15.3 billion as the post-leverage cleanup reaches equilibrium. Retail sentiment remains cautiously bullish with funding rates ranging from 0% to 10%, while institutional conviction has softened slightly, marked by the 3-month annualized basis dipping just below 3%. This suggests a firm market floor but a temporary plateau in upside momentum.
- The options market has shifted from “panic-hedging” to sustained bullishness, with 24 hour call volume surging to a 63/37 split. The 1-week 25-delta skew has cooled to 14% (down from 27%), signaling a sharp drop in the cost of downside protection. Crucially, the implied volatility (IV) term structure has moved into contango, as front-end premiums collapse below the stable 49%–50% seen in longer-dated tenors, indicating that immediate fear has been replaced by mid-term growth expectations.
- Coinglass data shows $392 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 50-50 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($163 million), ETH ($96 million) and Others ($20 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $69,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.
Token talk
- CoinDesk’s Memecoin (CDMEME) and DeFi Select (DFX) Indices are the best performing benchmarks over the past 24 hours, rising 0.95% and 0.71% respectively.
- AI token NEAR bounced back from oversold conditions with a 13.3% move to the upside on Tuesday, indicating that portions of the altcoin market remained coiled ready to spring to the upside.
- Broadly, however, the altcoin market remains in a consolidation phase as a part of a downtrend dating back to October. Over the past week the likes of PEPE, ATOM, SHIB and BCH have all lost double digits despite bitcoin remaining in the middle of its trading range.
- DeFi tokens JUP and MORPHO bucked the consolidation trend, rising by 23% and 20% respectively over the past week with continuation to the upside on Tuesday.
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